future food essay

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Future of Food: Exploring Challenges to Global Food Systems

Mahak Agrawal

Food is fuel to human existence, and in the evolution of human settlements, food— its production, availability, demand and supply — and food systems have steered the development, expansion and decline of human settlements.

In the 21st century, global food systems face dual challenges of increasing food demand while competing for resources — such as land, water, and energy — that affect food supply. In context of climate change and unpredictable shocks, such as a global pandemic, the need for resiliency in global food systems has become more pressing than ever.

With the globalization of food systems in 1950s, the global food production and associated trade has witnessed a sustained growth, and continues to be driven by advancements in transport and communications, reduction in trade barriers and agricultural tariffs. But, the effectiveness of global food system is undermined by two key challenges: waste and nutrition.

Food wastage is common across all stages of the food chain. Nearly 13.8% of food is lost in supply chains — from harvesting to transport to storage to processing. However, limited research and scientific understanding of price elasticity of food waste makes it tough to evaluate how food waste can be reduced with pricing strategy.

When food is wasted, so are the energy, land, and resources that were used to create it . Nearly 23% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions between 2007-2016 were derived from agriculture, forestry and other land uses. Apart from cultivation and livestock rearing, agriculture also adds emissions through land clearance for cultivation. Overfishing, soil erosion, and depletion and deterioration of aquifers threaten food security. At the same time, food production faces increasing risks from climate change — particularly droughts, increasing frequency of storms, and other extreme weather events.

The world has made significant progress in reducing hunger in the past 50 years. Yet there are nearly 800 million people without access to adequate food. Additionally, two billion people are affected by hidden hunger wherein people lack key micronutrients such as iron, zinc, vitamin A and iodine. Apart from nutrient deficiency, approximately two billion people are overweight and affected by chronic conditions such as type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases.

In essence, the global food system is inadequate in delivering the changing and increasing demands of the human population. The system requires an upgrade that takes into account the social-cultural interactions, changing diets, increasing wealth and wealth gap, finite resources, challenges of inequitable access, and the needs of the disadvantaged who spend the greatest proportion of their income on food. To feed the projected 10 billion people by 2050, it is essential to increase and stabilize global food trade and simultaneously align the food demand and supply chains across different geographies and at various scales of space and time.

Back in 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus, in his essay on the principle of population, concluded that “ the power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must come in some shape or other visit the human race .” Malthus projected that short-term gains in living standards would eventually be undermined as human population growth outstripped food production, thereby pushing back living standards towards subsistence.

Malthus’ projections were based on a model where population grew geometrically, while food production increased arithmetically. While Malthus emphasized the importance of land in population-food production dynamics, he understated the role of technology in augmenting total production and family planning in reducing fertility rates. Nonetheless, one cannot banish the Malthusian specter; food production and population are closely intertwined. This close relationship, however, is also affected by changing and improving diets in developing countries and biofuel production — factors that increase the global demand for food and feed.

Around the world, enough food is produced to feed the planet and provide 3,000 calories of nutritious food to each human being every day. In the story of global food systems once defined by starvation and death to now feeding the world, there have been a few ratchets — technologies and innovations that helped the human species transition from hunters and gatherers to shoppers in a supermarket . While some of these ratchets have helped improve and expand the global food systems, some create new opportunities for environmental damage.

To sum it up, the future of global food systems is strongly interlinked to the planning, management and development of sustainable, equitable and healthy food systems delivering food and nutrition security for all. A bundle of interventions and stimulus packages are needed at both the supply and demand ends to feed the world in the present as well as the future — sustainably, within the planetary boundaries defining a safe operating space for humanity. It requires an intersectoral policy analysis, multi-stakeholder engagement — involving farms, retailers, food processors, technology providers, financial institutions, government agencies, consumers — and interdisciplinary actions.

This blog post is based on an independent study — Future of Food: Examining the supply-demand chains feeding the world — led by Mahak Agrawal in fall 2020 under the guidance of Steven Cohen.

Mahak Agrawal is a medical candidate turned urban planner, exploring innovative, implementable, impactful solutions for pressing urban-regional challenges in her diverse works. Presently, she is studying environmental science and policy at Columbia University as a Shardashish Interschool Fellow and SIPA Environmental Fellow. In different capacities, Mahak has worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Town and Country Planning Organization-Government of India, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo. In 2019, she founded Spatial Perspectives as an initiative that uses the power of digital storytelling and open data to dismantle myths and faulty perspectives associated with spaces around the world. In her spare time, Mahak creates sustainable artwork to tell tales of environmental crisis.

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I’m doing an assignment on food production, ad I just happened to come across this article! Wow, what a lucky find! I’m going to use it for some information in my paragraphs.

it’s more better to have new fruits and reduce human and other thing more thing that you can do.

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Six brilliant student essays on the power of food to spark social change.

Read winning essays from our fall 2018 “Feeding Ourselves, Feeding Our Revolutions,” student writing contest.

For the Fall 2018 student writing competition, “Feeding Ourselves, Feeding Our Revolutions,” we invited students to read the YES! Magazine article, “Cooking Stirs the Pot for Social Change,”   by Korsha Wilson and respond to this writing prompt: If you were to host a potluck or dinner to discuss a challenge facing your community or country, what food would you cook? Whom would you invite? On what issue would you deliberate? 

The Winners

From the hundreds of essays written, these six—on anti-Semitism, cultural identity, death row prisoners, coming out as transgender, climate change, and addiction—were chosen as essay winners.  Be sure to read the literary gems and catchy titles that caught our eye.

Middle School Winner: India Brown High School Winner: Grace Williams University Winner: Lillia Borodkin Powerful Voice Winner: Paisley Regester Powerful Voice Winner: Emma Lingo Powerful Voice Winner: Hayden Wilson

Literary Gems Clever Titles

Middle School Winner: India Brown  

A Feast for the Future

Close your eyes and imagine the not too distant future: The Statue of Liberty is up to her knees in water, the streets of lower Manhattan resemble the canals of Venice, and hurricanes arrive in the fall and stay until summer. Now, open your eyes and see the beautiful planet that we will destroy if we do not do something. Now is the time for change. Our future is in our control if we take actions, ranging from small steps, such as not using plastic straws, to large ones, such as reducing fossil fuel consumption and electing leaders who take the problem seriously.

 Hosting a dinner party is an extraordinary way to publicize what is at stake. At my potluck, I would serve linguini with clams. The clams would be sautéed in white wine sauce. The pasta tossed with a light coat of butter and topped with freshly shredded parmesan. I choose this meal because it cannot be made if global warming’s patterns persist. Soon enough, the ocean will be too warm to cultivate clams, vineyards will be too sweltering to grow grapes, and wheat fields will dry out, leaving us without pasta.

I think that giving my guests a delicious meal and then breaking the news to them that its ingredients would be unattainable if Earth continues to get hotter is a creative strategy to initiate action. Plus, on the off chance the conversation gets drastically tense, pasta is a relatively difficult food to throw.

In YES! Magazine’s article, “Cooking Stirs the Pot for Social Change,” Korsha Wilson says “…beyond the narrow definition of what cooking is, you can see that cooking is and has always been an act of resistance.” I hope that my dish inspires people to be aware of what’s at stake with increasing greenhouse gas emissions and work toward creating a clean energy future.

 My guest list for the potluck would include two groups of people: local farmers, who are directly and personally affected by rising temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, drought, and flooding, and people who either do not believe in human-caused climate change or don’t think it affects anyone. I would invite the farmers or farm owners because their jobs and crops are dependent on the weather. I hope that after hearing a farmer’s perspective, climate-deniers would be awakened by the truth and more receptive to the effort to reverse these catastrophic trends.

Earth is a beautiful planet that provides everything we’ll ever need, but because of our pattern of living—wasteful consumption, fossil fuel burning, and greenhouse gas emissions— our habitat is rapidly deteriorating. Whether you are a farmer, a long-shower-taking teenager, a worker in a pollution-producing factory, or a climate-denier, the future of humankind is in our hands. The choices we make and the actions we take will forever affect planet Earth.

 India Brown is an eighth grader who lives in New York City with her parents and older brother. She enjoys spending time with her friends, walking her dog, Morty, playing volleyball and lacrosse, and swimming.

High School Winner: Grace Williams

Apple Pie Embrace

It’s 1:47 a.m. Thanksgiving smells fill the kitchen. The sweet aroma of sugar-covered apples and buttery dough swirls into my nostrils. Fragrant orange and rosemary permeate the room and every corner smells like a stroll past the open door of a French bakery. My eleven-year-old eyes water, red with drowsiness, and refocus on the oven timer counting down. Behind me, my mom and aunt chat to no end, fueled by the seemingly self-replenishable coffee pot stashed in the corner. Their hands work fast, mashing potatoes, crumbling cornbread, and covering finished dishes in a thin layer of plastic wrap. The most my tired body can do is sit slouched on the backless wooden footstool. I bask in the heat escaping under the oven door.

 As a child, I enjoyed Thanksgiving and the preparations that came with it, but it seemed like more of a bridge between my birthday and Christmas than an actual holiday. Now, it’s a time of year I look forward to, dedicated to family, memories, and, most importantly, food. What I realized as I grew older was that my homemade Thanksgiving apple pie was more than its flaky crust and soft-fruit center. This American food symbolized a rite of passage, my Iraqi family’s ticket to assimilation. 

 Some argue that by adopting American customs like the apple pie, we lose our culture. I would argue that while American culture influences what my family eats and celebrates, it doesn’t define our character. In my family, we eat Iraqi dishes like mesta and tahini, but we also eat Cinnamon Toast Crunch for breakfast. This doesn’t mean we favor one culture over the other; instead, we create a beautiful blend of the two, adapting traditions to make them our own.

 That said, my family has always been more than the “mashed potatoes and turkey” type.

My mom’s family immigrated to the United States in 1976. Upon their arrival, they encountered a deeply divided America. Racism thrived, even after the significant freedoms gained from the Civil Rights Movement a few years before. Here, my family was thrust into a completely unknown world: they didn’t speak the language, they didn’t dress normally, and dinners like riza maraka seemed strange in comparison to the Pop Tarts and Oreos lining grocery store shelves.

 If I were to host a dinner party, it would be like Thanksgiving with my Chaldean family. The guests, my extended family, are a diverse people, distinct ingredients in a sweet potato casserole, coming together to create a delicious dish.

In her article “Cooking Stirs the Pot for Social Change,” Korsha Wilson writes, “each ingredient that we use, every technique, every spice tells a story about our access, our privilege, our heritage, and our culture.” Voices around the room will echo off the walls into the late hours of the night while the hot apple pie steams at the table’s center.

We will play concan on the blanketed floor and I’ll try to understand my Toto, who, after forty years, still speaks broken English. I’ll listen to my elders as they tell stories about growing up in Unionville, Michigan, a predominately white town where they always felt like outsiders, stories of racism that I have the privilege not to experience. While snacking on sunflower seeds and salted pistachios, we’ll talk about the news- how thousands of people across the country are protesting for justice among immigrants. No one protested to give my family a voice.

Our Thanksgiving food is more than just sustenance, it is a physical representation of my family ’s blended and ever-changing culture, even after 40 years in the United States. No matter how the food on our plates changes, it will always symbolize our sense of family—immediate and extended—and our unbreakable bond.

Grace Williams, a student at Kirkwood High School in Kirkwood, Missouri, enjoys playing tennis, baking, and spending time with her family. Grace also enjoys her time as a writing editor for her school’s yearbook, the Pioneer. In the future, Grace hopes to continue her travels abroad, as well as live near extended family along the sunny beaches of La Jolla, California.

University Winner: Lillia Borodkin

Nourishing Change After Tragedy Strikes

In the Jewish community, food is paramount. We often spend our holidays gathered around a table, sharing a meal and reveling in our people’s story. On other sacred days, we fast, focusing instead on reflection, atonement, and forgiveness.

As a child, I delighted in the comfort of matzo ball soup, the sweetness of hamantaschen, and the beauty of braided challah. But as I grew older and more knowledgeable about my faith, I learned that the origins of these foods are not rooted in joy, but in sacrifice.

The matzo of matzo balls was a necessity as the Jewish people did not have time for their bread to rise as they fled slavery in Egypt. The hamantaschen was an homage to the hat of Haman, the villain of the Purim story who plotted the Jewish people’s destruction. The unbaked portion of braided challah was tithed by commandment to the kohen  or priests. Our food is an expression of our history, commemorating both our struggles and our triumphs.

As I write this, only days have passed since eleven Jews were killed at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. These people, intending only to pray and celebrate the Sabbath with their community, were murdered simply for being Jewish. This brutal event, in a temple and city much like my own, is a reminder that anti-Semitism still exists in this country. A reminder that hatred of Jews, of me, my family, and my community, is alive and flourishing in America today. The thought that a difference in religion would make some believe that others do not have the right to exist is frightening and sickening.  

 This is why, if given the chance, I would sit down the entire Jewish American community at one giant Shabbat table. I’d serve matzo ball soup, pass around loaves of challah, and do my best to offer comfort. We would take time to remember the beautiful souls lost to anti-Semitism this October and the countless others who have been victims of such hatred in the past. I would then ask that we channel all we are feeling—all the fear, confusion, and anger —into the fight.

As suggested in Korsha Wilson’s “Cooking Stirs the Pot for Social Change,” I would urge my guests to direct our passion for justice and the comfort and care provided by the food we are eating into resisting anti-Semitism and hatred of all kinds.

We must use the courage this sustenance provides to create change and honor our people’s suffering and strength. We must remind our neighbors, both Jewish and non-Jewish, that anti-Semitism is alive and well today. We must shout and scream and vote until our elected leaders take this threat to our community seriously. And, we must stand with, support, and listen to other communities that are subjected to vengeful hate today in the same way that many of these groups have supported us in the wake of this tragedy.

This terrible shooting is not the first of its kind, and if conflict and loathing are permitted to grow, I fear it will not be the last. While political change may help, the best way to target this hate is through smaller-scale actions in our own communities.

It is critical that we as a Jewish people take time to congregate and heal together, but it is equally necessary to include those outside the Jewish community to build a powerful crusade against hatred and bigotry. While convening with these individuals, we will work to end the dangerous “otherizing” that plagues our society and seek to understand that we share far more in common than we thought. As disagreements arise during our discussions, we will learn to respect and treat each other with the fairness we each desire. Together, we shall share the comfort, strength, and courage that traditional Jewish foods provide and use them to fuel our revolution. 

We are not alone in the fight despite what extremists and anti-semites might like us to believe.  So, like any Jew would do, I invite you to join me at the Shabbat table. First, we will eat. Then, we will get to work.  

Lillia Borodkin is a senior at Kent State University majoring in Psychology with a concentration in Child Psychology. She plans to attend graduate school and become a school psychologist while continuing to pursue her passion for reading and writing. Outside of class, Lillia is involved in research in the psychology department and volunteers at the Women’s Center on campus.   

Powerful Voice Winner: Paisley Regester

As a kid, I remember asking my friends jokingly, ”If you were stuck on a deserted island, what single item of food would you bring?” Some of my friends answered practically and said they’d bring water. Others answered comically and said they’d bring snacks like Flamin’ Hot Cheetos or a banana. However, most of my friends answered sentimentally and listed the foods that made them happy. This seems like fun and games, but what happens if the hypothetical changes? Imagine being asked, on the eve of your death, to choose the final meal you will ever eat. What food would you pick? Something practical? Comical? Sentimental?  

This situation is the reality for the 2,747 American prisoners who are currently awaiting execution on death row. The grim ritual of “last meals,” when prisoners choose their final meal before execution, can reveal a lot about these individuals and what they valued throughout their lives.

It is difficult for us to imagine someone eating steak, lobster tail, apple pie, and vanilla ice cream one moment and being killed by state-approved lethal injection the next. The prisoner can only hope that the apple pie he requested tastes as good as his mom’s. Surprisingly, many people in prison decline the option to request a special last meal. We often think of food as something that keeps us alive, so is there really any point to eating if someone knows they are going to die?

“Controlling food is a means of controlling power,” said chef Sean Sherman in the YES! Magazine article “Cooking Stirs the Pot for Social Change,” by Korsha Wilson. There are deeper stories that lie behind the final meals of individuals on death row.

I want to bring awareness to the complex and often controversial conditions of this country’s criminal justice system and change the common perception of prisoners as inhuman. To accomplish this, I would host a potluck where I would recreate the last meals of prisoners sentenced to death.

In front of each plate, there would be a place card with the prisoner’s full name, the date of execution, and the method of execution. These meals could range from a plate of fried chicken, peas with butter, apple pie, and a Dr. Pepper, reminiscent of a Sunday dinner at Grandma’s, to a single olive.

Seeing these meals up close, meals that many may eat at their own table or feed to their own kids, would force attendees to face the reality of the death penalty. It will urge my guests to look at these individuals not just as prisoners, assigned a number and a death date, but as people, capable of love and rehabilitation.  

This potluck is not only about realizing a prisoner’s humanity, but it is also about recognizing a flawed criminal justice system. Over the years, I have become skeptical of the American judicial system, especially when only seven states have judges who ethnically represent the people they serve. I was shocked when I found out that the officers who killed Michael Brown and Anthony Lamar Smith were exonerated for their actions. How could that be possible when so many teens and adults of color have spent years in prison, some even executed, for crimes they never committed?  

Lawmakers, police officers, city officials, and young constituents, along with former prisoners and their families, would be invited to my potluck to start an honest conversation about the role and application of inequality, dehumanization, and racism in the death penalty. Food served at the potluck would represent the humanity of prisoners and push people to acknowledge that many inmates are victims of a racist and corrupt judicial system.

Recognizing these injustices is only the first step towards a more equitable society. The second step would be acting on these injustices to ensure that every voice is heard, even ones separated from us by prison walls. Let’s leave that for the next potluck, where I plan to serve humble pie.

Paisley Regester is a high school senior and devotes her life to activism, the arts, and adventure. Inspired by her experiences traveling abroad to Nicaragua, Mexico, and Scotland, Paisley hopes to someday write about the diverse people and places she has encountered and share her stories with the rest of the world.

Powerful Voice Winner: Emma Lingo

The Empty Seat

“If you aren’t sober, then I don’t want to see you on Christmas.”

Harsh words for my father to hear from his daughter but words he needed to hear. Words I needed him to understand and words he seemed to consider as he fiddled with his wine glass at the head of the table. Our guests, my grandma, and her neighbors remained resolutely silent. They were not about to defend my drunken father–or Charles as I call him–from my anger or my ultimatum.

This was the first dinner we had had together in a year. The last meal we shared ended with Charles slopping his drink all over my birthday presents and my mother explaining heroin addiction to me. So, I wasn’t surprised when Charles threw down some liquid valor before dinner in anticipation of my anger. If he wanted to be welcomed on Christmas, he needed to be sober—or he needed to be gone.

Countless dinners, holidays, and birthdays taught me that my demands for sobriety would fall on deaf ears. But not this time. Charles gave me a gift—a one of a kind, limited edition, absolutely awkward treat. One that I didn’t know how to deal with at all. Charles went home that night, smacked a bright red bow on my father, and hand-delivered him to me on Christmas morning.

He arrived for breakfast freshly showered and looking flustered. He would remember this day for once only because his daughter had scolded him into sobriety. Dad teetered between happiness and shame. Grandma distracted us from Dad’s presence by bringing the piping hot bacon and biscuits from the kitchen to the table, theatrically announcing their arrival. Although these foods were the alleged focus of the meal, the real spotlight shined on the unopened liquor cabinet in my grandma’s kitchen—the cabinet I know Charles was begging Dad to open.

I’ve isolated myself from Charles. My family has too. It means we don’t see Dad, but it’s the best way to avoid confrontation and heartache. Sometimes I find myself wondering what it would be like if we talked with him more or if he still lived nearby. Would he be less inclined to use? If all families with an addict tried to hang on to a relationship with the user, would there be fewer addicts in the world? Christmas breakfast with Dad was followed by Charles whisking him away to Colorado where pot had just been legalized. I haven’t talked to Dad since that Christmas.

As Korsha Wilson stated in her YES! Magazine article, “Cooking Stirs the Pot for Social Change,” “Sometimes what we don’t cook says more than what we do cook.” When it comes to addiction, what isn’t served is more important than what is. In quiet moments, I like to imagine a meal with my family–including Dad. He’d have a spot at the table in my little fantasy. No alcohol would push him out of his chair, the cigarettes would remain seated in his back pocket, and the stench of weed wouldn’t invade the dining room. Fruit salad and gumbo would fill the table—foods that Dad likes. We’d talk about trivial matters in life, like how school is going and what we watched last night on TV.

Dad would feel loved. We would connect. He would feel less alone. At the end of the night, he’d walk me to the door and promise to see me again soon. And I would believe him.

Emma Lingo spends her time working as an editor for her school paper, reading, and being vocal about social justice issues. Emma is active with many clubs such as Youth and Government, KHS Cares, and Peer Helpers. She hopes to be a journalist one day and to be able to continue helping out people by volunteering at local nonprofits.

Powerful Voice Winner: Hayden Wilson

Bittersweet Reunion

I close my eyes and envision a dinner of my wildest dreams. I would invite all of my relatives. Not just my sister who doesn’t ask how I am anymore. Not just my nephews who I’m told are too young to understand me. No, I would gather all of my aunts, uncles, and cousins to introduce them to the me they haven’t met.

For almost two years, I’ve gone by a different name that most of my family refuses to acknowledge. My aunt, a nun of 40 years, told me at a recent birthday dinner that she’d heard of my “nickname.” I didn’t want to start a fight, so I decided not to correct her. Even the ones who’ve adjusted to my name have yet to recognize the bigger issue.

Last year on Facebook, I announced to my friends and family that I am transgender. No one in my family has talked to me about it, but they have plenty to say to my parents. I feel as if this is about my parents more than me—that they’ve made some big parenting mistake. Maybe if I invited everyone to dinner and opened up a discussion, they would voice their concerns to me instead of my parents.

I would serve two different meals of comfort food to remind my family of our good times. For my dad’s family, I would cook heavily salted breakfast food, the kind my grandpa used to enjoy. He took all of his kids to IHOP every Sunday and ordered the least healthy option he could find, usually some combination of an overcooked omelet and a loaded Classic Burger. For my mom’s family, I would buy shakes and burgers from Hardee’s. In my grandma’s final weeks, she let aluminum tins of sympathy meals pile up on her dining table while she made my uncle take her to Hardee’s every day.

In her article on cooking and activism, food writer Korsha Wilson writes, “Everyone puts down their guard over a good meal, and in that space, change is possible.” Hopefully the same will apply to my guests.

When I first thought of this idea, my mind rushed to the endless negative possibilities. My nun-aunt and my two non-nun aunts who live like nuns would whip out their Bibles before I even finished my first sentence. My very liberal, state representative cousin would say how proud she is of the guy I’m becoming, but this would trigger my aunts to accuse her of corrupting my mind. My sister, who has never spoken to me about my genderidentity, would cover her children’s ears and rush them out of the house. My Great-Depression-raised grandparents would roll over in their graves, mumbling about how kids have it easy nowadays.

After mentally mapping out every imaginable terrible outcome this dinner could have, I realized a conversation is unavoidable if I want my family to accept who I am. I long to restore the deep connection I used to have with them. Though I often think these former relationships are out of reach, I won’t know until I try to repair them. For a year and a half, I’ve relied on Facebook and my parents to relay messages about my identity, but I need to tell my own story.

At first, I thought Korsha Wilson’s idea of a cooked meal leading the way to social change was too optimistic, but now I understand that I need to think more like her. Maybe, just maybe, my family could all gather around a table, enjoy some overpriced shakes, and be as close as we were when I was a little girl.

 Hayden Wilson is a 17-year-old high school junior from Missouri. He loves writing, making music, and painting. He’s a part of his school’s writing club, as well as the GSA and a few service clubs.

 Literary Gems

We received many outstanding essays for the Fall 2018 Writing Competition. Though not every participant can win the contest, we’d like to share some excerpts that caught our eye.

Thinking of the main staple of the dish—potatoes, the starchy vegetable that provides sustenance for people around the globe. The onion, the layers of sorrow and joy—a base for this dish served during the holidays.  The oil, symbolic of hope and perseverance. All of these elements come together to form this delicious oval pancake permeating with possibilities. I wonder about future possibilities as I flip the latkes.

—Nikki Markman, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, California

The egg is a treasure. It is a fragile heart of gold that once broken, flows over the blemishless surface of the egg white in dandelion colored streams, like ribbon unraveling from its spool.

—Kaylin Ku, West Windsor-Plainsboro High School South, Princeton Junction, New Jersey

If I were to bring one food to a potluck to create social change by addressing anti-Semitism, I would bring gefilte fish because it is different from other fish, just like the Jews are different from other people.  It looks more like a matzo ball than fish, smells extraordinarily fishy, and tastes like sweet brine with the consistency of a crab cake.

—Noah Glassman, Ethical Culture Fieldston School,  Bronx, New York

I would not only be serving them something to digest, I would serve them a one-of-a-kind taste of the past, a taste of fear that is felt in the souls of those whose home and land were taken away, a taste of ancestral power that still lives upon us, and a taste of the voices that want to be heard and that want the suffering of the Natives to end.

—Citlalic Anima Guevara, Wichita North High School, Wichita, Kansas

It’s the one thing that your parents make sure you have because they didn’t.  Food is what your mother gives you as she lies, telling you she already ate. It’s something not everybody is fortunate to have and it’s also what we throw away without hesitation.  Food is a blessing to me, but what is it to you?

—Mohamed Omar, Kirkwood High School, Kirkwood, Missouri

Filleted and fried humphead wrasse, mangrove crab with coconut milk, pounded taro, a whole roast pig, and caramelized nuts—cuisines that will not be simplified to just “food.” Because what we eat is the diligence and pride of our people—a culture that has survived and continues to thrive.

—Mayumi Remengesau, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, California

Some people automatically think I’m kosher or ask me to say prayers in Hebrew.  However, guess what? I don’t know many prayers and I eat bacon.

—Hannah Reing, Ethical Culture Fieldston School, The Bronx, New York

Everything was placed before me. Rolling up my sleeves I started cracking eggs, mixing flour, and sampling some chocolate chips, because you can never be too sure. Three separate bowls. All different sizes. Carefully, I tipped the smallest, and the medium-sized bowls into the biggest. Next, I plugged in my hand-held mixer and flicked on the switch. The beaters whirl to life. I lowered it into the bowl and witnessed the creation of something magnificent. Cookie dough.

—Cassandra Amaya, Owen Goodnight Middle School, San Marcos, Texas

Biscuits and bisexuality are both things that are in my life…My grandmother’s biscuits are the best: the good old classic Southern biscuits, crunchy on the outside, fluffy on the inside. Except it is mostly Southern people who don’t accept me.

—Jaden Huckaby, Arbor Montessori, Decatur, Georgia

We zest the bright yellow lemons and the peels of flavor fall lightly into the batter.  To make frosting, we keep adding more and more powdered sugar until it looks like fluffy clouds with raspberry seed rain.

—Jane Minus, Ethical Culture Fieldston School, Bronx, New York

Tamales for my grandma, I can still remember her skillfully spreading the perfect layer of masa on every corn husk, looking at me pitifully as my young hands fumbled with the corn wrapper, always too thick or too thin.

—Brenna Eliaz, San Marcos High School, San Marcos, Texas

Just like fry bread, MRE’s (Meals Ready to Eat) remind New Orleanians and others affected by disasters of the devastation throughout our city and the little amount of help we got afterward.

—Madeline Johnson, Spring Hill College, Mobile, Alabama

I would bring cream corn and buckeyes and have a big debate on whether marijuana should be illegal or not.

—Lillian Martinez, Miller Middle School, San Marcos, Texas

We would finish the meal off with a delicious apple strudel, topped with schlag, schlag, schlag, more schlag, and a cherry, and finally…more schlag (in case you were wondering, schlag is like whipped cream, but 10 times better because it is heavier and sweeter).

—Morgan Sheehan, Ethical Culture Fieldston School, Bronx, New York

Clever Titles

This year we decided to do something different. We were so impressed by the number of catchy titles that we decided to feature some of our favorites. 

“Eat Like a Baby: Why Shame Has No Place at a Baby’s Dinner Plate”

—Tate Miller, Wichita North High School, Wichita, Kansas 

“The Cheese in Between”

—Jedd Horowitz, Ethical Culture Fieldston School, Bronx, New York

“Harvey, Michael, Florence or Katrina? Invite Them All Because Now We Are Prepared”

—Molly Mendoza, Spring Hill College, Mobile, Alabama

“Neglecting Our Children: From Broccoli to Bullets”

—Kylie Rollings, Kirkwood High School, Kirkwood, Missouri  

“The Lasagna of Life”

—Max Williams, Wichita North High School, Wichita, Kansas

“Yum, Yum, Carbon Dioxide In Our Lungs”

—Melanie Eickmeyer, Kirkwood High School, Kirkwood, Missouri

“My Potluck, My Choice”

—Francesca Grossberg, Ethical Culture Fieldston School, Bronx, New York

“Trumping with Tacos”

—Maya Goncalves, Lincoln Middle School, Ypsilanti, Michigan

“Quiche and Climate Change”

—Bernie Waldman, Ethical Culture Fieldston School, Bronx, New York

“Biscuits and Bisexuality”

“W(health)”

—Miles Oshan, San Marcos High School, San Marcos, Texas

“Bubula, Come Eat!”

—Jordan Fienberg, Ethical Culture Fieldston School,  Bronx, New York

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The future of food: what we’ll eat in 2028

We’ve all heard that the future menu may involve less meat and dairy. But don’t worry, we could have customised diets, outlandish vegetables, robot chefs and guilt-free gorging to look forward to instead. And we reckon that makes up for missing out on the odd sausage

Dr Stuart Farrimond

Before 1928, no one had tasted bubblegum. In the late 1930s, frozen cream desserts threw off their reputation for being as hard as rock with the US invention of soft-serve ice cream (often called Mr Whippy in the UK). Popping candy introduced children’s mouths to a bizarre effervescence 20 years later. And in the late 1990s, Red Bull showcased a strange medicinal flavour that’s since become synonymous with energy drinks. The foods we eat are always evolving and new tastes are being created. By 2028, you can expect to be tucking into foods unlike anything you’ve experienced before.

In 2028 food will be tailored to your genome

Today, we know that healthy eating is important to keep our bodies in tip-top condition. This link between diet and health was first ‘proved’ in the mid-1800s by Scottish naval surgeon Dr Joseph Lind, who is credited with running one of the earliest ever clinical controlled trials. His study demonstrated that citrus fruits could protect sailors from scurvy. The watershed finding set the stage for lemons and limes to be issued as standard in sailors’ rations, and showed how healthy eating can save untold numbers of lives.

These days, science may have dissected almost every element of our diet, but many of us still feel at sea. Even when sticking to official advice, healthy foods that seem to energise one person can cause another to feel fatigued and bloated. In 2015, a team of scientists from Israel tracked blood sugar levels in the blood of 800 people over several days, making the surprising discovery that individuals’ biological response to identical foods varied wildly. Some people had a blood glucose ‘spike’ after eating sugaryice cream, while others’ glucose levelsonly increased with starchy rice – a finding at odds with conventional wisdom.

In the next 10 years, the emerging field of ‘personalised nutrition’ will offer healthy eating guidance tailored to the individual

Our bodies’ idiosyncratic handling of nutrients seems to be down to our genetics, the microbes in our gut, and variations in our organs’ internal physiology. Clinical trials like those pioneered by Lind have given us general dietary guidelines, but nutrition research tends to assume all humans are the same, and so can miss the nuances and specific needs ofthe individual.

In the next 10 years, the emerging field of ‘personalised nutrition’ will use genetic tests to fill in those gaps to offer healthy eating guidance tailored to the individual. Some companies, so-called ‘nutrigenetics services’, already test your DNA and offer dietary advice – but the advice can be hit-and-miss. By 2028, we will understand much more about our genetics. Dr Jeffrey Blumberg, a professor of nutrition science and policy at Tufts University in Massachusetts, is one of the most outspoken advocates of this new science. He insists that DNA testing will unlock personalised nutrition. “I’ll be able to tell you what kinds of fruits, what kinds of vegetables and what kinds of wholegrains you should be choosing, or exactly how often,” he says.

Sadly, personalised nutrition looks set to make cooking meals for the whole family just that little bit more taxing.

In 2028 food will be engineered to be more nutritious

‘Natural’ is a buzz term food marketers love to use, but barely any of our current produce ever existed in the natural world. The fruit and vegetables that we enjoy today have been selectively bred over thousands of years, often mutated out of all recognition from the original wild crop. Carrots weren’t originally orange, they were scrawny and white; peaches once resembled cherries and tasted salty; watermelons were small, round, hard and bitter; aubergines used to look like white eggs.

• Five things you probably didn’t know about processed food
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But the selective breeding for bulky and tasty traits, combined with intensive farming practices, has sometimes come at a nutritional cost. Protein, calcium, phosphorus, iron, riboflavin (vitamin B2) and vitamin C have all waned in fruit and vegetables over the past century, with today’s vegetables having about two-thirds of the minerals they used to have.

By 2028, genetics and biomolecular science should have redressed the balance, so that DNA from one organism is inserted into another, eliminating the need to undertake generations of selective breeding to acquire desirable traits.

Just last year, researchers from Australia showcased a banana with high levels of provitamin A, an important nutrient not normally present in the fruit. To create this fruit, the researchers snipped out genes from a specific type of Papua New Guinean banana that’s naturally high in provitamin A, then inserted them into the common banana variety.

More controversially, DNA can be transplanted from completely different organisms to create varieties that would never occur with selective breeding. Corn has been successfully given a boost of methionine – a key nutrient missing in the cereal – by splicing in DNA from a bacterium. Even the genetic code itself can be edited to develop ‘superpowers’: in 2008, for example, researchers created modified carrots that increase the body’s absorption of calcium.

There have been hundreds of examples of these incredible botanical creations: potatoes, corn and rice containing more protein; linseed having more omega-3 and omega-6 fats; tomatoes containing antioxidants originally found in snapdragons; and lettuce that carries iron in a form that’s easily digestible by the body.

Over the next ten years, the number of nutritionally enhanced crops will probably explode. Precise DNA-editing technology – namely a technique called CRISPR-Cas9 – now allows alteration of plant genetic code with unprecedented accuracy. Get ready for tasty apples with all the goodness of their bitter forebears, peanuts that don’t trigger allergies, and lentils that have a protein content equivalent to meat. It will be like creating the orange carrot all over again!

In 2028 food will be different from anything you have tasted before

New flavours arrive unpredictably as food manufacturers create new products. Silicon Valley – well known for attracting the brightest minds – is becoming the global hub for food innovation. A start-up currently making waves is Impossible Foods, which has created a meat-free burger that sizzles in the pan, tastes like meat and ‘bleeds’. Designed to be sustainable and environmentally friendly, the patties are made with wheat protein, coconut oil, potato protein, and flavourings. The secret ingredient is heme – the oxygen-carrying molecule that makes both meat and blood red – and seems to give meat much of its flavour. The heme that Impossible Foods uses has been extracted from plants and produced using fermentation. It’s a growth industry, with competitors such as Beyond Meat and Moving Mountains cooking up similar burgers, and plans are afoot for plant-based steaks andchicken. It doesn’t stop there, however: other start-ups are pioneering animal-free milk and egg whites. Expect to get usedto the new tastes of meat-free meat and dairy-free dairy.

It’s now been more than a decade since chef Heston Blumenthal first served his famous ‘sound of the seas’ dish, for which diners listened to a recording of breaking waves to heighten the salty flavours of seafood. It is well established that all senses inform the flavour of food: desserts taste creamier if served in a round bowl rather than on a square plate; background hissing or humming makes food taste less sweet; and crisps feel softer if we can’t hear them crunching in the mouth. The emerging field of ‘neurogastronomy’ brings together our latest understanding of neurology and food science and will be a big player in our 2028 dining.

Today, you might hear James Blunt crooning in your favourite eatery, but in the restaurant of 2028, there may be aromatic mists, subtle sound effects and controlled lighting, all optimised to make your steak and chips taste better than you thought possible. At home, augmented reality headsets that superimpose digital imagery on the real world could offer a tranquil seascape for a fish dish, or the wilds of Texas for barbecued ribs.

Unusual processed foods will make a splash in the years to come, including novelties like edible spray paint, algae protein snack bars, beer made with wastewater, and even lollipops designed to cure hiccups. We don’t know exactly what will be on tomorrow’s supermarket shelves (if supermarkets still exist, that is) due to the secretive nature of the multinational food corporations. But we do know that ice cream and chocolate that don’t melt in warm weather are definitely under development. Nanotechnology is going to feature: researchers are currently devising nanoparticles that give delayed bursts of flavour in the mouth, and earlier this year, a team of chemists created tiny magnetic particles that bind to and remove off-tasting flavour compounds in red wine while preserving its full aroma.

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Cookbooks in 2028 will have some weird recipes. By analysing foods for their flavour compounds – aroma-carrying substances that convey flavour – ingredients can be paired to create novel experiences. In 2016, researchers from the International Society of Neurogastronomy demonstrated a menu with hitherto untried ingredient blends, designed to be flavourful for people who had lost their sense of taste and smell through chemotherapy.A lip-smacking highlight was: clementine upside-down cake with a dab of basil and pistachio pesto, crowned with a scoop of olive oil gelato.

Perhaps the most outlandish proposal to enhance the eating experience is to ‘hack’ the brain. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is designing implantable ‘neural interfaces’ that aim to boost human senses by transmitting high-resolution audiovisual information, and potentially smells and tastes, directly to the brain.

In 2028 food will be guilt free

We just keep getting heavier. Today around 40 per cent of all adults are overweight or obese and every single nation on Earth is getting fatter. Obesity-related diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, are soaring on a trajectory that will cripple many health services. Most troublingly, there have been no success stories in the past 33 years – not one country has been able to halt the growth of the bulge. Processed, calorie-dense foods continue to become more widely available worldwide and, short of an international catastrophe like a global famine or mass outbreak of war, turning the tide is going to take some truly innovative thinking.

A short-term solution is to re-engineer calorific ‘junk’ food to have less fat, sugar, salt and fewer calories, while still giving the same satisfaction. There are artificial sweeteners, but they can haveunpleasant side effects and can’t be cooked as sugar can. Low-calorie sugar substitutes, such as sugar-alcohols like sorbitol, taste like the real thing but cause flatulence and diarrhoea if eaten excessively. But food technologists have managed to coat inert mineral particles with sugar, increasing the surface area that contacts the tongue, so that less sugar can be used to provide the same sweetness.

In the longer term, fine-tuning our biology could allow us to eat without guilt. Few people realise that our appetite is precisely regulated. Overeat on a Monday, and you usually eat less on Tuesday and Wednesday. Our hunger is usually set to a level almost identical to the number of calories we need. Unfortunately, the hunger ‘thermostat’ is set a little too high, by an average of about 0.4 per cent (or 11 calories a day). Left to our own devices, we will each tend to eat an extra peanut’s worth of calories each day. That doesn’t sound like much, but it adds up to nearly half a kilogramme weight gain each year. Our unfortunate tendency to develop ‘middle-aged spread’ has presumably evolved as an insurance against the next famine.

The hunt is on to nudge the appetite set point down by 11 calories or more. Many hormones swirl around the blood to tell us when to eat and when to stop. One hormone, CCK, is released by the gut when food enters it, making us feel full. Another hormone, leptin, is released by body fat and apparently tells the body when our fat stores are adequate. It’s a complex picture and attempts at manipulating individual hormone levels have been unsuccessful. Everyone is hoping that we will soon untangle the web of brain-hormone messages and managed to devise supplements, foods or medicine that can make a tiny tweak to the dial.

In 2028 food will be more creative

Kitchen creativity has few limits. From Weetabix ice cream to liquid nitrogen cocktail balls, exciting dishes are made by chefs who love to surprise, but few such culinary masterpieces make it into the home, owing to a reliance on specialist equipment and professional skills. Expect that to change as equipment becomes more affordable. Even today, the sous-vide water bath that was once reserved for fine dining restaurants can be purchased for less than a set of pans. In the coming years, the spiraliser will have been eclipsed by a handheld spherificator or foam-making espuma gun. For the ambitious home cook, getting creative is going to be a lot more fun.

When skills are lacking, a robotic sous-chef may lend a helping hand. Imagine being able to send a message your Robo-Chef while on the commute home to prepare a recipe of your choice. Within moments, android arms will be gathering ingredients from the fridge, julienning the turnips and deboning the chicken.

It’s not completely pie-in-the-sky, either. UK-based Moley Robotics has already developed a ‘robotic kitchen’, set for consumer release this year. Consisting of two articulated arms, cooking hobs, oven and touchscreen interface, this is a robot that can chop, whisk, stir, pour and clean. It’s no clumsy Dalek either: each hand has 20 motors, 24 joints and 129 sensors to mimic the movements of human hands. Skills are ‘learnt’ by replicating the movements of chefs and other cooks, and their recipes can be selected via an iTunes-like recipe catalogue. The speed and dexterity of the robotic kitchen will have foodies salivating at the possibilities. But with the first devices expected to cost around £10,000 each, it might be worth holding out until they throw in a dishwasher.

Elsewhere, 3D-printed food offers endless opportunities for creating intricate dishes that are impossible to create by human hands alone. Everything from toys to aeroplane parts, from prosthetics to clothing – even whole houses – are already being made with 3D printers. And the food frontier has been crossed. Custom sweets can be designed and made using sugar-rich ‘ink’ to construct anything from interlocking candy cubes and chewable animal shapes, to lollipops in the shape of Queen Elizabeth’s head.

Until recently, 3D printing has been sugar-based, but technology is emerging that reliably prints savoury and fresh ingredients. Natural Machines has developed one such kitchen appliance that can be loaded with multiple ingredient capsules to create and cook all manner of weird and wonderful foods. These include: crackers shaped like coral, hexagonal crisps, heart-shaped pizzas and hollow croutons that dissolve in sauce. With the promise of cutting waste by repurposing ‘ugly’ food and offcuts for food capsules, Natural Machines has the potential to drastically reduce packaging and transport costs. Not yet sold on the idea? Imagine wowing your nearest and dearest by serving upthe ultimate romantic meal finished off with a personalised chocolate torte, where an invisible series of grooves in the chocolate surface plays their favourite song when placed in a special ‘record player’. Delicious!

This is an extract from issue 322 of BBC Focus magazine.

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The Future of Food Essay

Food and farming industry has greatly changed over time. For many thousands of years people have used natural ways to grow crops and farm land. The evolution and advancement of technology have influenced the methods of how people grow and consume food. Mass production and industrialization were arranged in such a way that large number of people could be fed. “The Future of Food” talks about the changes that took place in the last hundred years. Previously, there were very many kinds of fruits and vegetables (Lahidjii 75).

For example, there were thousands of types of potatoes and apples. The fact that people started to use pesticides has turned the whole world around. The different strands of fruits and vegetables were lost and presently only four or five types are cultivated and grown.

The pesticides and insecticides had a very detrimental effect on plants (Denham 39). Their use has increased the mutation and immunity for pests and so, more and more chemicals had to be used. The more these chemicals were used, the higher the demand for them rose and plants were rapidly losing their ability to fight on their own. Chemicals like DDT were thought to be safe but in reality, were one of the most harmful things to happen to agriculture.

Animals that would drink the polluted water or eat the seeds would get contaminated and die. This also upset the natural order and pollination, insects have decreased their activity and this in turn affected the crops (Dunlap 47). Another issue that came up is the ownership of plants and species. Mass production of crops has led to an industrial revolution. But a major change came about when corporations started patenting the genes and seed types.

This was thought to be impossible before, as the courts said that any living organism or Nature cannot be patented but it did happen, and this was disastrous to farmers. Many were sued by corporations because there would be plants in farmer’s fields that had same genes as the patents (Williams 23). This happened because the wind blew over some seeds from far away or trucks with seeds would be passing by fields and some would get planted in the fields.

This is an outrageous fact because it is close to impossible to control such type of things. Even if farmers were developing and growing their own seeds, as was the case for decades, there would still be some genetic relevance to the patented genes and the famers would get sued. Many chose to pay for a settlement but many have decided to battle and were deprived of their life savings and crops.

This fact is completely unacceptable because not only do corporations own the land, they now own the living things, Nature itself. For many people it is a way of life and the greed of corporations has destroyed their lives and support. One of the latest and most harmful effects that mass production has had on the food industry is genetic modification.

People started having severe allergies to products that they previously consumed and did not have a reaction. This is because foods are genetically cross bread, so that they receive qualities they did not have before. Some plants are made more resistant to the colder climate; some are made to stay fresh longer. The technology has allowed to modify the natural order of things and it was somewhat beneficial but very detrimental in many other areas (Forman 67).

The changes that people have made to nature are very traceable and their inability to predict the outcome is evidently harmful. The personal lives have changed and the chemicals that were used to preserve food for people have shown how dangerous it is to people’s health. This topic is extremely important in the present days because food is as necessary as oxygen. The natural order was created, so that people benefit from the energy received from fruits and vegetables.

The balance has existed for thousands of years but recently people started to experiment. The inability to consider all factors and predict the outcome of these modifications has created a large array of consequences that are almost irreversible. Not only do such changes to nature affect humans but the animals, plants and general ecosystem are all influenced. The natural balance is upset and the chain of events causes more and more damage to the structure of nature (Deane-Drummond 58).

Everything is very much connected and people have factored in changes that were not expected. Presently, people are aware of the ecological footprint they have made. A better filtration system and more “nature friendly” chemicals are being used today (Lockeretz 45). There are many groups that specialize in determining the effects that new technology or chemicals will have on nature. A better understanding of genetics has educated people on how certain species will react.

The future of technology and health of humanity lies with next generations. The awareness and acknowledgement of the problem has increased the chances at making a change for the better and every effort must be made to reverse the harmful consequences people have put in place.

Works Cited

Deane-Drummond, Celia. The Ethics of Nature . Malden, United States: John Wiley & Sons, 2008. Print.

Denham, Timothy. Rethinking Agriculture: Archaeological And Ethnoarchaeological Perspectives. Walnut Creek, United States: Left Coast Press, 2009. Print.

Dunlap, Thomas. DDT, Silent Spring, and the Rise of Environmentalism: Classic Texts . Seattle, United States: University of Washington Press, 2008. Print.

Forman, Lillian. Genetically Modified Foods EBook . Edina, United States: ABDO, 2010. Print.

Lahidjii, Reza. The Future of Food: Long-Term Prospects for the Agro-Food Sector . Danvers, United States: OECD Publishing, 1998. Print.

Lockeretz, William. Organic Farming: An International History . Cambridge, United States: CABI, 2007. Print.

Williams, Elizabeth. The A-Z Encyclopedia of Food Controversies and the Law. Santa Barbara, United States: ABC-CLIO, 2011. Print.

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• Chicago (A-D)
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IvyPanda. (2018, December 19). The Future of Food. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-future-of-food/

"The Future of Food." IvyPanda , 19 Dec. 2018, ivypanda.com/essays/the-future-of-food/.

IvyPanda . (2018) 'The Future of Food'. 19 December.

IvyPanda . 2018. "The Future of Food." December 19, 2018. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-future-of-food/.

1. IvyPanda . "The Future of Food." December 19, 2018. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-future-of-food/.

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The Future of Food

How the agriculture industry could go from farming to “ferming.”

By Lauren Jackson

The big idea: From farming to ‘ferming’

From “The Daily” newsletter: One big idea on the news, from the team that brings you “The Daily” podcast. You can sign up for the newsletter here .

The lie was delicious.

For years, Americans consumed their frothy, full-dairy cappuccinos, marbled meat and flaky fried chicken without worry. The food was cheap. The drive-throughs, abundant. And the supply seemed infinite — until it wasn’t .

Over the last few decades, a steady drumbeat of documentaries , books and escalating disasters has made it clear that America’s current food system, filled with factories and feedlots, can’t be sustained without making the planet and its people sick . Industrial agriculture, responsible for one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions around the world, is destroying ecosystems .

“If we want to have an American type of food consumption, we need three to five planets,” Dr. Ferdinand von Meyenn, a Swiss food scientist, said in a phone interview. “We don’t have that.”

Americans are aware . A majority, including both Republicans and Democrats, say they are trying to reduce their meat and dairy consumption. Still, inflation is high, systems are stubborn and tastes are hard to change .

So scientists have been searching for solutions, ones that will make protein-rich food cheap, accessible and far more sustainable. The good news? They already have answers. The problem, they say, is scaling them.

The protein problem

People need protein for balanced, healthy diets. But that’s become a problem for the planet.

“We get most of our protein-rich and fat-rich foods from animal farming,” George Monbiot, an ecologist and journalist, said in a phone interview this week. “And animal farming is arguably the most destructive of all industries on Earth.”

He added that the industry as a whole is “the primary cause of habitat destruction, wildlife loss, extinction, land use, soil degradation, water use and one of the major causes of climate breakdown.”

In an effort to address this problem and limit animal cruelty, food entrepreneurs and scientists have spent decades working to develop high-protein meat alternatives from plants. But until just a few years ago, these products were a novelty, eaten by a small group of committed vegans and vegetarians.

That’s changed. Today, popular plant-based alternatives, like those from Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods, appear on menus of restaurants around the country, from Panda Express to Long John Silver’s. Seventy-one percent of Americans have tried a plant-based burger or other meat alternatives . Demand for alternatives to dairy has been growing, too. Now, almond, oat and other nondairy products make up 14 percent of milk sales in grocery stores.

But even if protein is available in other forms, Americans aren’t converted. In a 2018 Gallup poll , only 5 percent said they were vegetarians. The majority of the country has high fidelity to meat and dairy products — a taste that has long been difficult to replicate with plants.

“To put it simply, plants are crunchy, and meat is chewy. This is why veggie burgers can often feel crumbly or mushy in texture, without the bite and springiness of animal protein,” the chef J. Kenji López-Alt wrote for The Times. He added that “animal fat, which provides mouth-coating richness and juiciness,” is also difficult to replicate with plant-based fats.

But researchers have been working on a solution — one that can replicate those nutrients, tastes and textures without using animals.

A fermented future?

Fermentation, essential for making sourdough bread, beer and cheese, has been around for centuries. But advances in the science of fermentation are helping researchers decouple animals from the proteins they produce.

Specifically, “ precision fermentation ” is helping food scientists grow ingredients found in animal products without the need for a traditional farm. Instead, the scientists isolate the specific ingredients, then multiply their cells in brewery-style tanks. The result? Animal-free eggs , milk and meat that are biologically similar to animal products.

“It’s a new way of producing protein-rich and fat-rich foods, which can greatly reduce the amount of land we require and the amount of water,” Mr. Monbiot said.

Recent innovations in precision fermentation are allowing scientists to replicate, for example, “the exact fatty acid” that makes meat taste like meat, said Dr. Liz Specht, who oversees a research team focused on the future of alternative protein at the Good Food Institute. Experts say these developments will help close the gap between plant-based products and their animal-derived analogues, making them nearly indistinguishable in taste and texture.

“It’s a tool in the tool kit to get these plant-based products over those next few hurdles, from a sensory perspective and from a cost-reduction perspective,” she added. “This is very, very different than what was happening in the protein space, say, five years ago.”

These products, alongside lab-cultivated meat , could appeal to flexitarians or to occasional consumers of plant-based products who haven’t been sold on the taste so far, enabling more consumption of meat alternatives.

And that little bit could make all the difference, scientists say.

A recent study in Nature found that replacing just 20 percent of global beef consumption and other grazing livestock with “ microbial proteins ,” or those made from fermentation, could cut annual deforestation in half by 2050. (Whether the plant-based foods, many of which are highly processed, are healthier is subject to debate .)

“Replacing the milk, meat and, one day, even the eggs that we eat would massively take pressure off the planet,” Mr. Monbiot said. “It could also develop a whole new cuisine that we can’t even imagine at the moment. Just as the first farmers to capture a wild cow weren’t thinking about Camembert.”

Enthusiasm for this innovation abounds. (“Precision fermentation is the most important environmental technology humanity has ever developed,” Mr. Monbiot said. “We would be idiots to turn our back on it.”)

But the question remains: How quickly and effectively can the companies working in this space scale their work — and bring products in development to market?

Growth in this corner of the alternative-meat industry has largely been facilitated by private investment. And interest is booming: Alternative protein fermentation companies raised $1.7 billion in 2021, up 285 percent from 2020 .

Still, start-ups working on innovating fermented foods are navigating “inherent inefficiencies,” Dr. Specht said. To succeed, and deliver a return for investors, they need to build new infrastructure and nurture talent in a food industry trained to support animal farming.

“They’re on a knife’s edge of profitability,” Dr. Specht added, while the companies also try to deliver products at a “price point within reach of most consumers.”

She argues that it’s a critical moment for governments to invest in “research and development and provide incentivizes for building out the industry’s infrastructure,” as many nations have invested in the renewable energy sector in recent years.

Without regulation and support, some worry the industry could one day be dominated by major agriculture companies, like Tyson, Smithfield, Perdue and Hormel, which have all rolled out meat alternatives in recent years.

“Monopoly and intellectual property is a genuine worry,” Mr. Monbiot said. “Ninety percent of the world’s grain passes through the hands of four corporations.”

“We don’t want to replicate that problem. We want to confront that dominance,” he added.

From the Audio team: Share your story with us

Have you ever been on a date in a bizarre or unexpected location? Maybe you crossed the Atlantic Ocean on a cargo ship for your 10th date. Or perhaps you wound up on the side of a mountain. Or at a restaurant after hours.

The Modern Love podcast team is collecting stories about out-of-the-ordinary date spots. They want to know: What led you there, who were you with and what made it memorable?

If this sparks a story from your life, visit nytimes.com/datestory for submission details. You may be featured in a future episode.

On The Daily this week

Monday: Crypto was supposed to exist outside the fickleness of the financial system. So why is its value falling ?

Tuesday: How a bill protecting marriage equality might now, improbably, become law.

Wednesday: The N.F.L.’s biggest scandal .

Thursday: How expecting inflation can actually create more inflation .

Friday: The rise of the conservative Latina voter .

That’s it for the Daily newsletter. See you next week.

Have thoughts about the show? Tell us what you think at [email protected] .

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Love podcasts? Join The New York Times Podcast Club on Facebook .

Lauren Jackson is a journalist based in London. More about Lauren Jackson

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Future of food.

In 2012, the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Foundation (Foundation), Feeding America (FA), and National Dairy Council (NDC) came together to address a public health challenge – raising awareness of food insecurity as a public health issue and increasing access to adequate amounts of nutrient dense food for all Americans – and launched the Future of Food initiative (FOF).

Over the first three years of this initiative, this partnership resulted in many successes, including the development of a Food Insecurity/Food Banking dietetic internship concentration, scientific symposia, presentations at national and state professional conferences, toolkits, infographics, and mini-grants to hundreds of Academy members to facilitate community awareness and action.

Additionally, in the October 2018, the Foundation, in collaboration with Nutrition and Dietetic Educators and Preceptors (NDEP) and the Accreditation Council for Education in Nutrition and Dietetics (ACEND), released the Sustainable, Resilient, and Healthy Food and Water Systems (SFS) dietetic internship concentration.

With this exciting momentum from demonstrated collaborative successes, the Foundation launched the next phase of the Future of Food initiative in 2018. This phase is focused on advancing the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics’ (Academy) new strategic direction for its next century, particularly as it relates to the focus area of Food and Nutrition Safety and Security within the strategic plan, and positioning the Academy and its members to address the issues of global food security, hunger, and malnutrition.

This program of work is being led by the Foundation’s Healthy and Sustainable Food Systems fellow . The fellowship, available through an educational grant to the Foundation by NDC, includes:

• Planning and convening a Heathy and Sustainable Food Systems roundtable (November 2018) as well as co-authoring a proceedings paper from the discussion and submitting to the Journal of Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics for publication
• Promoting the SFS dietetic internship curriculum and designing and implementing a variety of enhanced SFS curriculum experiences
• Facilitating a variety of additional Future of Food (FOF) projects

Educational Resources

• Cultivating Sustainable Food Systems: A Nutrition-Focused Framework for Action
• Sustainable, Resilient, and Healthy Food and Water Systems: A Curriculum for Dietetic Interns

Future of Food Resources

• Future of Food Fact Sheet
• U.S. Farming 101 Infographic
• Feeding the World Infographic

Future of Food Toolkits

Tossed treasures. how we all can waste less food.

This Tossed Treasures. How We All Can Waste Less Food. toolkit was developed by RDN farmer content experts and is designed to educate adults and mature teens about the issues related to wasted food and how we all can waste less food.

English Presentation

• Presentation

Spanish Presentation

This toolkit was made possible through an educational grant to the Academy Foundation from National Dairy Council.

Related Resources

Healthy cities evaluation project with feeding america.

In collaboration with Feeding America, the Academy Foundation is performing an evaluation of Feeding America’s Healthy Cities project funded by Morgan Stanley. Healthy Cities is an integrative nutrition and health model with Feeding America food banks serving as the “hub” for providing food distributions, nutrition education, health screenings, and safe places to play in the communities they serve.

Feeding America Healthy Cities Pilot Program Results Webinar

Learn about the three Feeding America food banks and the new community partnerships they formed. Review the assessment process, outcomes, and recommendations for food banks wishing to successfully create similar partnerships.

• View slides from the Healthy Cities webinar
• Read the final report and results for the project pilot

Feeding America Healthy Cities Phase II Year One Results

In this webinar, the Feeding America Healthy Cities Phase II year one is described and the evaluation results are shared for Feeding America food banks in Houston and Cleveland.

• View slides from the Healthy Cities Phase II Year 1 webinar
• Read the report for Healthy Cities Phase II Year 1

Feeding America Healthy Cities Phase II Year Two and Phase III Year One Results

For the 2016-2017 school year, the Healthy Cities program expanded to a third phase in New Orleans, while finishing up the second year of Phase II in Houston and Cleveland.

• View slides from the Healthy Cities Phase II Year 2 and Phase III Year 1 webinar
• Read the report for Healthy Cities Phase II Year 2
• Read the report for Healthy Cities Phase III Year 1

The State of America's Wasted Food and Opportunities to Make a Difference

By Chris Vogliano, MS, RD, LD and Katie Brown, Ed.D., RDN, LD

This report highlights where wasted food can potentially occur throughout the food supply chain, the environmental and economic impact of wasted food, and opportunity areas for registered dietitian nutritionists (RDNs) to help reduce wasted food within a total infrastructure that has both a business and consumer facing perspective.

• Read the full report

Future of Food Webinars

New - sustainable food systems primer for rdns and ndtrs.

This primer was created to answer the question, “What should a practitioner of nutrition and dietetics know about sustainable food systems?”

The need for an introductory resource in a modular format for practitioners and students was identified by the Sustainable Food Systems Curriculum Working Group, which was convened by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Foundation’s Healthy and Sustainable Food Systems Fellow.

• Learn more and access the primer.

This webinar was made possible through an educational grant from National Dairy Council.

Exploring Malnutrition Through the Lens of Systems Thinking

Systems thinking encourages practitioners to consider the context within which they operate, and nutrition and dietetics professionals can use tools from systems thinking when addressing malnutrition. In this webinar hosted by Jasia Steinmetz, PhD, MS, RD and Joanna Cummings, MS, RD, CNSC, learn about systems thinking and practice using an Impact Analysis to explore ecological, agricultural, economic, and social impacts related to malnutrition case studies from the United States and Laos.

This webinar is accompanied by instructions for educators to lead a three-part interactive series including the webinar, an independent hands-on activity for students, and a follow-up discussion that can be convened virtually or in-person.

This format was originally pilot tested with dietetics interns and students enrolled in programs implementing the Sustainable, Resilient, and Healthy Food and Water Systems curriculum , but it is adaptable for a variety of settings and audiences (including students and practitioners).

This webinar was made possible through an educational grant from National Dairy Council .

• View the webinar
• Webinar description and instructions
• Webinar slides
• Activity Template (I+PSE worksheet)
• 1.0 CPEU available (expires 3/20/2022)

Gaining Ground: Applying, Individual, Policy, System & Environmental Change to Sustainable Food

Developing sustainable, resilient, and healthy food and water systems requires a range of strategies. In this webinar hosted by Angie Tagtow, MS, RD, LD, learn how nutrition and dietetics professionals can deliver greater impact when coupling individual behavior change approaches with policies, system, and environmental (PSE) change strategies.

• Activity Template (Impact Analysis)
• 1.0 CPEU available (expires 5/1/2022)

A Flavorful Pairing: Nutrition Education in Food Banks

Learn the value of nutrition education in food banks and the potential to change eating behaviors among participants. Understand the history of nutrition education in food banks and effective nutrition education plans for the future. Also get ideas for how you can provide nutrition education in food banks.

Changing the Way We Look at Agriculture: Opportunities for RDNs

Learn about the current state of U.S. farming versus international farming, the innovative strategies happening globally to help nutritiously feed our growing world population and ag-related projects and practices that other affiliates and DPGs are participating.

• PowerPoint Slides

Contributors and Effects of Food Insecurity: Nutrition and Beyond

Gain an understanding of the contributing factors associated with food insecurity and the effects of food insecurity on children, families and entire communities. Learn ways to help address hunger in your community.

Food Production and Our Environmental Responsibility

Participants will learn about the common misperceptions of animal agriculture and the environment, and current innovations that can impact food costs and our economy. Participants will also learn how to better educate consumers about food production and the environment.

Food Security and Nutrition

This webinar will raise awareness of the current state of global health through a description of the missing macro- and micro-nutrients in the diets of developing countries and predictions for the future.

Webinar attendees will be exposed to the challenges and opportunities in nutritiously feeding a growing world population and see examples of successful and promising high impact interventions for improving global health and food security.

This webinar was made possible through an educational grant from Elanco.

Hungry and Overweight: How is it Possible?

Can children be simultaneously hungry and overweight? Learn about services available to families and be inspired to get involved in hunger programs in your community.

Keys to Food Bank Nutrition Education Program Evaluation

Learn the importance of conducting evaluations with food insecure populations in food banks and preview sample evaluation tools . View the results of the California Association of Food Banks Evaluation Report: Assessing the impact of Nutrition Education at Produce Distributions. Learn how the Guide to Effective Nutrition Interventions and Education can help you plan effective nutrition programs in a food bank.

Making an Impact with Food Insecure Populations

Gain a real understanding of families facing food insecurity and the many obstacles they encounter every day. Learn how to make nutrition messages fit their needs, and access new resources for successfully helping food insecure families adopt healthy lifestyles.

This webinar was planned with Feeding America through an educational grant from the National Dairy Council.

Point A to Point B: Improving Access to Healthy Foods in Food Banks

Learn the obstacles food banks face to distribute healthy foods for families and see examples of improvements food banks are making across the country. Learn specific ways you can help support healthy foods in food banks.

Promising Practices in Food Bank Nutrition Education

Learn how promising practices in nutrition education can be applied with clients of food banks, and integrate quality tools to design effective programs and materials. Take a closer look at helpful resources and evaluation tools on the Healthy Food Bank Hub.

Ready Set Go

Learn how Academy members can make an impact by providing nutrition education to food insecure families.

• Nutrition Education Resources

School Meals and Community Partnerships: Creative Solutions against Food Insecurity

Learn all about the nutrition requirements for the National School Lunch Program and the recent changes to improve the nutritional quality of school meals. They will become familiar with the variety of school meal opportunities available to children, as well as services through community organizations that feed children.

Successful Synergies

Get inspired to connect with local organizations to help fight hunger and improve access to healthy foods in your community by hearing many innovative examples of projects big and small. Learn practical tips for forming collaborations that become successful synergies. Understand the important role that health care and food bank partnerships can play in improving the lives of families facing food insecurity.

The Nutrition Professional's Guide to GMOs

Gain an understanding of what the science says about GMOs. An in-depth look at the past, present and potential future use of GMOs will be presented. Learn how to access science-based resources to be more informed about GMOs and how to translate the science into education for consumers.

Planned in collaboration with the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT)

• Infographic
• Participant Questions
• 1.0 CPEU Available

This program has been approved for RDs, RDNs and DTRs under Activity Type 175 in accordance with CDR guidelines. (Expires 3/16/20.) RDs and RDNs may claim up to 15 CPEUs under this CPE Activity Type in a recertification cycle; DTRs may claim up to 10 CPEUs.

Tossed Treasures. America's Wasted Food Problem, and How Dietetic Professionals Can Help.

Gain a new appreciation for food waste and its worldwide implications through this engaging webinar. Learn how you can help your institution waste less food, and how to share practical tips with the public.

This program has been approved for RDs, RDNs and DTRs under Activity Type 175 in accordance with CDR guidelines. (Expires 1/19/20.) RDs and RDNs may claim up to 15 CPEUs under this CPE Activity Type in a recertification cycle; DTRs may claim up to 10 CPEUs.

U.S. Farming 101, Part 1

This webinar provides a foundational understanding of farming in the U.S. with relevant information for nutrition professionals to share with consumers. Learn about types of farms, educational backgrounds of farmers and regulations of farms and gain an understanding of the amount and types of foods that are imported and exported and learn more about locally grown foods.

U.S. Farming 101, Part 2

This webinar provides insight into farming economics to better understand how farming decisions are made and the challenges farms face in running a business. Learn how the Farm Bill has impacted farming, nutrition education and research. A variety of resources will be provided to help nutrition professionals become more knowledgeable about farming, the future of farming and how to get involved in public policy decisions that affect agriculture and nutrition.

• Recommended Resources

What's in Our Food? The Science and Safety of Food Additives

Learn about the functions of food additives, the science behind them and the specific functions of several additives. Gain confidence in better explaining the contents of their food to consumers and learn about credible resources of additional information.

• Responses to Unanswered Questions

This program has been approved for RDs, RDNs and DTRs under Activity Type 175 in accordance with CDR guidelines. (Expires 2/7/20.) RDs and RDNs may claim up to 15 CPEUs under this CPE Activity Type in a recertification cycle; DTRs may claim up to 10 CPEUs.

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The Future of Food

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“The Future of Food” is a Breakthrough research series examining global food consumption, agriculture, and technological innovation. Vital for ensuring a healthy and prosperous global population, and for minimizing humanity’s intrusion into wild nature, building a smart global food system is essential to realizing an ecomodern future.

Achieving Peak Pasture

Pasture expansion has been one of the most significant challenges the world has faced for conserving biodiversity and mitigating climate change. It's been a major driver of deforestation in the Amazon and degradation of many of the world’s natural grasslands, releasing vast amounts of carbon stored in soils and plants into the atmosphere. The problem has been getting worse for centuries, but in the last twenty years, something remarkable occurred: the trend reversed.

The Synthetic-Organic Debate

To address the environmental challenges of nitrogen pollution, many advocate for a universal switch to organic farming, which eliminates the use of synthetic fertilizer. But talking about “organic” as a monolithic category doesn’t make very much sense: organic encapsulates both animal manure and green manure (cover crops), which have very different impacts. While green manure is, overall, carbon-negative, animal manure disproportionately contributes to nitrogen pollution. Instead of one-dimensional debates, we should focus on broader ways to reduce nitrogen pollution from all types of fertilizer.

Fixing Nitrogen

What would be the consequences of massively scaling up organic farming and eliminating synthetic fertilizer use? It’s widely recognized that synthetic fertilizer increases yields. But most people overlook that it also reduces the need to set land aside to replenish the soil’s nutrients, usually by planting legumes. Aiming to simply eliminate synthetic fertilizer would therefore have larger negative consequences than commonly believed. Environmental groups and policy should aim to reduce fertilizers’ negative impacts rather than to stop using it.

The Pasture Problem

Recent decades have seen remarkable developments across the pastures of the world. Even as production of meat and dairy from ruminants (grazing animals such as cattle and sheep) increased by almost a third, the footprint of pasture has begun to decline. And this change is significant, shrinking by nearly 64 million hectares, an area larger than France, between 2000 and 2013. The gains have been considerable for conservation. To the benefit of endangered species from the Asiatic cheetah in Iran to the saiga antelope in Kazakhstan, pastureland is going out of production and returning to nature. While promising, these developments will not be enough to assure that rising demand for meat does not put new pressure on critical habitats.

Plenty of Fish on the Farm

Demand for seafood is growing, but many wild fish stocks are already under strain from overfishing. Instead of harvesting more wild fish, aquaculture—or fish farming—is poised to dominate the future of seafood production. While intensive commercial fish farming has taken a toll on the environment, causing habitat loss and pollution problems, next-generation aquaculture systems have the potential to resolve many of these problems by moving fish farming into indoor tanks or offshore fish farms in the open ocean. More energy, however, will be required for these technologies, meaning that a sustainable future for seafood will depend on cheap, clean, abundant energy.

Food Production and Wildlife on Farmland

Can farmers best protect wildlife by sharing land with animals or sparing land for them? At bottom, the choice between these two approaches implies a stark trade-off when it comes to farmland biodiversity and agricultural productivity: a truly high-yield farm (whether organic or conventional) will have little room to share with wildlife. While opportunities do exist for marginally increasing biodiversity on the farm without reducing productivity—by adopting agroecological practices like crop rotations, for instance, and by employing high-tech tools, synthetic pesticides, and crops with GM traits like Bt—the effectiveness of such management interventions remains limited. As a result, it will be essential to concentrate farmland in locations where biodiversity losses are the least and yield gains the greatest.

The Future of Meat

As global demand for meat grows, the environmental “hoofprint” of livestock production could grow, too. Demand-side strategies are unlikely to reverse the long historical trend of increasing meat consumption as countries develop economically, but there are ways to improve the environmental performance of livestock systems on the production end. Contrary to popular perception, modern, intensive livestock production can offer environmental efficiencies compared to traditional, lower-input systems. In a world where billions of people want meat on their plates, it will be crucial to leverage the efficiency of intensive systems to meet demand and minimize environmental harm.

Is Precision Agriculture the Way to Peak Cropland?

Precision agriculture—a set of technologies that optimize inputs to maximize yields—may be the most important innovation for peaking farming's land footprint in the twenty-first century. In this essay, Breakthrough's conservation director Linus Blomqvist and Applied Innovation's David Douglas examine trends in food demand and crop yields, uncovering how precision technologies like sensors and GPS-guided tractors can help farmers grow more food on less land.

Since the dawn of agriculture, humans have been converting forests, grasslands, and other ecosystems to farmland. While climate change, air and water pollution, and a range of other environmental challenges frequently get the headlines, food production without question represents the single largest human impact upon the environment. Land for crops takes up 12% of Earth’s ice-free land. Add pasture and that percentage climbs to 36%. The long-term conversion of land for agriculture has brought enormous losses to ecosystems and wildlife populations already. The climate impacts are also considerable—15% of global greenhouse emissions come from the agricultural sector. With global food demand expected to grow as much as 70% by 2050, those impacts threaten to grow substantially.

Dan Blaustein-Rejto

Dan Blaustein-Rejto is the Director of the Food and Agriculture program at Breakthrough.

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The future of food

This is the first in a new series of thought leadership essays from CSIRO Agriculture and Food, discussing future food trends.

By Professor Martin Cole ,  Professor Manny Noakes 17 August 2017 12 min read

This is the first in a new series of essays from CSIRO Agriculture and Food. 

Our next essay will look at the changing landscape of agricultural innovation and how new commercial trends and opportunities are emerging..

For much of its modern existence, Australia has built its fortune on raw commodities; wool, wheat and a wealth of mineral resources. But as the mining boom slows, and issues such as food security, climate change and sustainability come to the forefront of global consciousness, a new opportunity is arising for Australian producers and manufacturers to position themselves at the forefront of the food and agribusiness revolution.

Far better than being the next food bowl for Asia, Australia has the chance to be the delicatessen, supplying high-quality, sustainably-produced, health-enhancing premium goods to a growing market both nationally and internationally.

By 2030, there will be around 3.5 billion people on the planet with middle-class incomes who are willing to pay more for trusted, premium food products. That is the market Australia can and should be reaching towards.

Instead of resting on the laurels of raw materials, whether grains, meat, dairy or fresh produce, Australian food and agribusinesses should be looking at the myriad ways they can add value to these basic commodities.

This shift in focus takes place at a time of significant change for food and agribusiness, brought about by resource insecurity and a changing climate, an ageing population with rising levels of chronic disease, choosier consumers, globalisation and smarter food chains.

The challenge - and the opportunity - for Australian food producers and suppliers, is to pursue new markets and growth opportunities that are emerging from these megatrends. To do this will require investment to encourage innovation, enable the exploration and exploitation of new markets, and to overcome barriers that might exist.

There are three significant things happening across the globe that are driving this shift in Australia’s food and agribusiness industries, each of which present different opportunities for Australia.

The first driver is sustainability. By 2050, the world’s population is expected to reach around 9.6 billion people. The demand for food is expected to increase by 14% per decade; we will consume as much food in the next four decades as we have consumed in the previous few hundred years, representing around a 70% increase in production by 2050.

Such an achievement itself isn’t unprecedented – food production has already doubled in the space of just one generation. But that increase has come at a significant cost to the environment that cannot continue to be borne. This time, production must increase but the environmental footprint of that production must halve.

A focus on sustainability is not just driven by regulators; consumers are also demanding more environmentally-responsible products. In a 2015 Nielsen survey of 30,000 people in 60 countries, two-thirds of respondents were willing to pay more for sustainable brands; up from 50% in 2013.

Australia already has a reputation for being clean and green, ranking 16th out of 80 countries in global perception of a green economy. But we still have some way to go in truly embracing what is becoming known as the ‘circular bioeconomy’; the shift towards closed loop production.

Waste is a huge issue for food and agribusiness. One-third of food produced today around the world, or approximately 1.3 billion tonnes, is wasted. In Australia alone, 312,000 tonnes of food is wasted each year by the food manufacturing industry.

Wastage happens at every step of production, from the farm to the fridge. When it happens at the consumer end of the supply chain, it’s not only a waste of the product itself but of all the energy and effort that has gone into getting it to that point.

One way to deal with it is take the waste and turn it into something innovative and useful. Queensland company Natural Evolution has developed a method to produce banana flour - a high-value nutritional supplement - from bananas that don’t meet supermarket size and shape requirements, and which would otherwise simply be thrown out. At the same time, CSIRO and Horticulture Innovation Australia have been researching ways to find alternative uses for other ‘ugly’ fruits and vegetables, such as powdered products, fruit and vegetable concentrates or vegetable-dense snacks for children.

Similarly, the fruit juice industry produces huge quantities of fruit pulp as a waste product. This pulp is not only nutritious but is also very low in sugar. Instead of being thrown away, it could be a source of flavour compounds, natural colourants and dietary nutrients, baking products such as pectin, fibre and pulp for textile or paper production, growth materials for other food sources such as fungi, and a myriad of other possibilities .

Dairy waste such as acid whey can be used to create products for human rather than purely animal consumption; crop residues used for fodder, biofuels, bio-oils, paper and packaging materials rather than fertiliser; and plant stalks and leaves a source of nutrients such as carotenoids, vitamin D and functional oils.

Packaging is another significant area of waste. Food and agriculture industries in Australia use 65-70% of all packaging produced in Australia, much of which ends up in landfills, waterways and the marine environment. While some are already addressing this with biodegradable and low-energy packaging materials, there are also opportunities to be found in recycled, re-used or even edible packaging. Some retail outlets, particularly in the US but also in Australia, are now moving towards a ‘zero-waste’ model, where customers buy in bulk and bring their own containers and bags.

Sustainability is also about the cost of production. Meat is a major source of protein for billions of people – and demand is set to increase dramatically with increased wealth and living standards. However meat production is associated with significant environmental costs in terms of water use, methane production, pollution from animal effluent, and land degradation. As a result, markets and consumers are looking for alternative protein sources. While some of these are plant based, there is also a growth in appetite for new and different types of protein. The global market for insect-based foods is expected to grow to over US $520 million by 2023 and mycoprotein-based meat substitutes such as Quorn are already a staple in Australian supermarkets. Aquaculture also delivers alternative sources of protein; in Australia alone, the aquaculture industry is worth just over $1 billion, with the most popular products being salmon, edible oysters, pearl oysters and prawns.

Food the key to health and wellbeing

The second key driver of food innovation is health and wellness. Chronic non-communicable diseases , such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer, are now the number one global killer, claiming more than 36 million lives each year; many in low- and middle-income countries.

Food plays a major role in both the onset and the prevention of these diseases. Poor diet and nutrition are associated with obesity and other metabolic disorders that lead to heart disease and diabetes. However a diet high in fresh produce and whole foods, particularly vegetables, can significantly reduce the risk of heart disease, diabetes and cancer.

Demand for food that is fresh, tasty and healthy is now the single biggest consumer trend in food. This also manifests as an interest in foods with lower levels of undesirable ingredients or elements, such as sugar, fat, gluten, or lactose, but also in foods with higher levels of desirable elements such as antioxidants, probiotics, omega-3 fatty acids and resistance starch. For example, barley with a high-fibre content and low glycaemic-index, canola with higher levels of omega-3 fatty acids and even gluten-free barley.

Because of this demand, we are likely to see an increase in foods with specific health, wellness or even cosmetic claims, such as fortified foods and nutraceuticals. In tandem, organisations like CSIRO are now positioned to validate nutrition and health claims of novel foods, giving them greater credibility in the marketplace.

There is also growing interest in the impact that the gut microbiome has on health, with evidence that the state of the microbiome may influence our risk of not only metabolic diseases such as obesity and diabetes but also cancer and autoimmune disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis. This is leading to a focus on so-called ‘personalised nutrition’. For example, CSIRO is working on a kit that can predict food preferences based on someone’s genes. Scientists are also modelling how food is processed in the mouth and digestive tract to better understand how this affects our tastes.

Consumers are increasingly seeking out foods that are not only fresh and healthy, and minimally-processed but also convenient and easy to prepare. This is driving innovation in the sector, with products ranging from pre-packaged salads all the way up to do-it-yourself meals that come with pre-portioned ingredients and a recipe. New methods, such as high-pressure cold-pressed processing, are being adopted as a way to preserve the freshness and flavour of food products, such as fruit juice, avocado and chilli.

A touch of luxury

The third major driver of innovation in food and agribusiness is consumer desire for premium products.

The global luxury food market is estimated to be worth between US$50 billion-$140 billion. In China, where the middle class will account for 45% of the country’s population by 2022, there is an explosion in demand for goods that hold a particular status because of their quality, rarity and association with social class. A recent Austrade analysis showed that, for the first time, the majority of Australia’s growth in food and agribusiness exports from 2013-16 (60%) now comes from premium and value-added products.

These luxury products, such as truffle-infused oils, beef selectively bred for tenderness, luscious chocolates and seafood from pristine waters, capture and convey some essence of Australia.

The provenance of these food products is a big part of what makes them premium, and producers can take advantage of emerging technologies such as QR codes to capitalise on that. For example, a QR code would enable a consumer to watch a video of the farm on which their food product is grown, meet the farmer or producer and learn more about how the product is produced.

The premium market is also growing for novel foods and food products. In recent years, Australia has seen an explosion of new and unusual ingredients in the marketplace - quinoa, kale, seaweed and goji berries, for example - as well as specialty products such as microherbs and miniaturised fruits and vegetables. Taking one step further into the realm of the magical, on the horizon there are also such novelties as 3D printed confectionary, fruit and vegetables with altered flavour profiles and in unusual colours. Catering to the molecular gastronomy market are horticultural vapours and flavoured foams. There is even research being conducted into 3D printed meat.

Roadmap for the future of food

It’s one thing to identify market opportunities in the food and agriculture sector; it’s another thing entirely to exploit them.

Currently, the Australian food and agribusiness sector faces certain disadvantages. Australian producers are mostly micro enterprises that can face an uphill battle to stand out in the global marketplace. They are also geographically dispersed, which can make it harder for collaboration.

Australia’s track record in taking new ideas through to commercialisation is not as good as it could be, and there is relatively low spending on research and development in food and agribusiness. We also have complex regulatory arrangements, and an extensive list of accreditation schemes that at times can hamper innovation.

But it also has some advantages. In addition to its clean and green reputation, Australia’s internationally respected food safety authority and tough biosecurity protocols reinforce the safety and trustworthiness of Australian food and agricultural products. The high proportion of small-to-medium enterprises in the agribusiness space gives the industry a nimbleness and agility, and boosts the potential for innovation.

While Australian business are well placed to succeed, investment needs to be made in research and development, business action and ecosystem assistance to ensure Australian industry remains competitive.

For example, with provenance and traceability becoming important factors in consumer purchasing decisions, there is a need for technology to support this. One possibility is blockchain, which can automate and digitise business transactions, detect tampering and even identify if duties have been paid. Producers stand to gain greater insights into their customers with blockchain technology as it can trace where products end up. Other technologies include DNA testing to certify both the origin and quality of raw materials, offering for full value chain traceability; and isotope analysis that can assist in mapping products to regions, thus authenticating provenance. Advances in image recognition technology may see products themselves becoming their own digital barcode, incorporating information such as weight and expiry date as well as details of provenance.

In addition to these technologies, there is a need for actions that address issues such as fragmentation of the domestic market, and to identify key areas where research and development should be focused.

Similarly with food safety and biosecurity, research and development is needed in novel systems such as microwave-assisted thermal sterilisation and hybrid high pressure thermal processing. We need enhanced domestic food testing capabilities, and at this point Australia would benefit greatly from a national centre of excellence in food safety research and collaboration. And if we are to address the problem of food waste, we need investment to help¬ innovators find ways to transform that waste into new opportunities.

Australian food and agribusiness also needs help to collaborate; creating networks to enable the sharing of knowledge, resources and research not only with local competitors but also internationally. Collaborations between research organisations and SMEs could help catalyse innovation, and CSIRO is exploring the idea of a virtual incubator to support entrepreneurs in this area.

Ultimately, this is a journey of innovation. The opportunity exists for Australian food and agribusiness to cement its global position and reputation not as a source of raw commodities, but as a producer and exporter of high-quality, safe, sustainable, healthy, premium, value-added produce. Grasping that opportunity will require strategic investment in key areas that are likely to most benefit Australian businesses and enable them to stand out from the herd.

View this article as a PDF.

Professor Martin Cole is Deputy Director of CSIRO Agriculture and Food. An internationally recognised food scientist and accomplished science leader, Martin has published and presented over 160 papers on many aspects of food science including food safety, food trends and innovation, novel processing and nutrition. He is a fellow of the International Academy of Food Science and Technology (IaFoST).

Professor Manny Noakes is a Research Director with CSIRO Health and Biosecurity. She is considered a key opinion leader and trusted advisor in nutrition and health both nationally and internationally. Manny has published over 200 papers and been highly successful in translating this knowledge into consumer publications, in particular the CSIRO Total Wellbeing Diet.

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Foods of the future: what will we be eating.

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Edible confections made via a ChefJet Pro 3D food printer. (Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images)

This article appeared in  Forbes Israel

Ever wonder what people will be eating 35 years from now? Experts say the diet of 2050 will revolve less around meat and more around bugs. What's more? NASA -inspired superfood bars, 3D printed custom-designed menus and plenty of kale.

Three decades from now, will we still sit down to a table with family and friends, enjoying all the same sights and smells as we do now,  or should we expect something completely different? Will overpopulation and resource depletion force us to make drastic changes in our diet? Will veganism be the lifestyle of a dedicated minority or the obvious choice for an uncertain future?

Although there may be enough food to go around in the West, experts say the realities of agriculture and economics will convince more of us to become vegetarians or vegans. “As the price of raising livestock goes up, we’ll eat less beef and more fish,” says Professor Sheenan Harpaz of the Volcani Center in Beit Dagan, Israel.

Harpaz predicts our reliance on genetic engineering will continue to increase as we strive to feed a growing, hungry world. Crops will be made more resistant to pests and viruses, he says, but food will look the same as it does today. Harpaz predicts a focus on function over form. “Functional foods,” like their natural counterparts (think fish rich in omega-3s), will be designed to provide added value to health-conscious consumers. This will be done not only through biotechnology, but through diet trends that contribute to better health. “There will be a focus on foods that animals eat – since that is a reflection of what we ultimately eat.”

So in 2050, supermarket shelves will be stocked with functional foods. Instead of just a baby food section, we’ll have products tailored to every segment of the population--foods optimized for women, men, and the elderly. Food science will formulate the best nutritional profile for each demographic group, as well as for each individual.

“Once we have a complete picture of the human genome, we’ll know how to create food that better meets our needs,” says Prof. Yoram Kapulnik, director of the Volcani Center. When parents make their children’s school lunches in the morning, they’ll use a nutritional database to help them figure out what’s best for each child,factoring in everything from getting enough vitamins to dealing with digestive system issues. “Food will be more expensive,” Kapulnik says, “but it will also be customized to each one of us.”

3D printed food (Photo: Stephane De Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images)

The customized food of the future may come from natural sources, but given the limits of traditional production methods, 3D printing may become key in making functional foods more widely available. “Food will look exactly the same, but it will be printed to personal specifications,” predicts Kapulnik. We’ll have custom-designed flavors and colors, and ingredients formulated according to doctors’ orders or personal dietary needs.

Personalized 3D printed food in your choice of color sounds great, but it’s likely to remain a luxury affordable only to small segments of the world’s population. In the third world, food will be bland, monotonous, and increasingly a mere necessity of survival. The experts think developing countries will come to rely on some type of compact food rations similar to NASA’s famous astronaut packets – nutritionally fortified energy bars, biscuits or dehydrated snacks – to help feed growing numbers of hungry people. These items may not be very appetizing, but they will be functional, formulated to provide maximum nutrition and a feeling of satiety.

Kapulnik predicts that developed countries, too, may come to rely on food concentrates to meet some of their needs. When the time comes, if people are still eating traditional sit-down meals, 3D printers will help meet the demand for culinary variety and novelty. Otherwise, good old energy bars will do the job.

The insect option

Food experts are all but certain that we’ll soon be forced to find substitutes for our limited sources of animal protein. The solution, it turns out, is right under our noses and is already a familiar staple in parts of the developing world: bugs.

“Is eating grasshoppers more disgusting than eating a cow?” asks Dr. Nitza Kardish, CEO of Trendlines Agtech. “After all, we don’t think of a cow when we eat a steak, and we don’t see a chicken when we eat schnitzel – it’s just a matter of perception.”

People in Africa and the Far East may be used to eating all kinds of bugs whole, but Westerners may be easier to sell on processed insect powders that can be used to make passable substitutes for traditional items: steak, burgers, mashed potatoes – the possibilities are endless.

Industrial-scale bug farming is not yet a reality, but some Israeli companies have recently started to produce insect-based foods commercially. Can’t wait? Not to worry – frozen grasshopper schnitzels are on the way.

Some say the answer is even simpler; we don’t really need meat substitutes from a nutritional point of view. “There are plant-based foods that provide protein and iron, and there’s no such thing as getting too little cholesterol or saturated fat,” says Hila Keren ofAnonymous for Animal Rights. Keren says it’s easy to find tasty alternatives without resorting to high-tech solutions. “All the big café chains serve vegan omelets. Bakeries make vegan pies, cakes and cookies. Even steakhouses serve vegan burgers, and of course there are thousands of recipes online,” she adds.

The algae alternative        

It may sound gross to most of us, but insects are known to be highly nutritious. More than just a smart alternative to traditional protein sources, bugs can be used for nutritional fortification. As Dr. Harpaz reminds us, health will be the priority when it comes to the food of the future, and it should also be the focus for research aimed at developing new strains.

So it seems that our diet in 2050 will include more superfoods:foods with much healthier nutritional profiles than those that make up the typical Western diet. Kale is one example already familiar to many of us. the dark green super-cabbage is rich in fiber, vitamins, minerals and anti-cancer compounds. While marketers may try to take advantage of the “superfood” label to sell their products, true superfoods like kale and its relatives will be the superstars of the health-savvy dinner table for years to come.

Another low-tech solution to the challenge of healthy eating is algae. Algae contain more calcium, protein, iron, vitamins, minerals, fiber and antioxidants than any known fruit or vegetable. The aquatic plants can be farmed in pools just like fish but are much cheaper and more abundant. Algae may be the ideal non-animal food source for sustainably feeding the world while minimizing environmental damage.

A helping hand

The challenge of improving the food of the future is inseparable from the issue of genetic engineering. With the help of genetic engineering, it will be possible to develop strains of non-allergenic peanuts or flood-resistant rice. Professor Danny Chamovitz, dean of the life sciences department at Tel Aviv University and a prominent proponent of genetic engineering, believes it’s important to emphasize that it poses no health or environmental hazards. “It’s just transferring a gene from one place to another, like in cross-breeding,” he says. “In 20 years of engineered strains all over the world there have been no cases of death or illness.” According to Chamovitz, the fear of genetic engineering is holding back research. Resistance from organizations like Greenpeace, he says, does the world a disservice, and in many cases prevents life-saving and life-improving research.

Greenpeace members assert the opposite: that many substances we have been using for years are harmful, even if the damage they cause has not yet been proven. The organization believes that in a world grappling with ever-worsening climate change, we cannot afford to put all our eggs in one basket. “Maintaining diversified agriculture is an insurance policy for future food security ,” according to Greenpeace, and “a takeover of the world‘s food resources by a small number of strains will do more harm than good. The agriculturalconglomerates promoting genetically engineering are cynically exploiting world hunger and manipulating the guilty feelings of Westerners to sell their products.”

Professor Nir Ohad, director of the Manna Center Program for Food Safety and Security at Tel Aviv University, is convinced that “a lot more effort is needed just to maintain the status quo.” With all the complicated issues that stand between us and our daily bread, Ohad says, the question we should really be asking is not what sort of food we will be putting on our plates, but how it will get there.

Translated from Hebrew by Noam Primak 

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12.4 Annotated Student Sample: "Healthy Diets from Sustainable Sources Can Save the Earth" by Lily Tran

Learning outcomes.

By the end of this section, you will be able to:

• Analyze how writers use evidence in research writing.
• Analyze the ways a writer incorporates sources into research writing, while retaining their own voice.
• Explain the use of headings as organizational tools in research writing.
• Analyze how writers use evidence to address counterarguments when writing a research essay.

Introduction

In this argumentative research essay for a first-year composition class, student Lily Tran creates a solid, focused argument and supports it with researched evidence. Throughout the essay, she uses this evidence to support cause-and-effect and problem-solution reasoning, make strong appeals, and develop her ethos on the topic.

Living by Their Own Words

Food as change.

public domain text For the human race to have a sustainable future, massive changes in the way food is produced, processed, and distributed are necessary on a global scale. end public domain text

annotated text Purpose. Lily Tran refers to what she sees as the general purpose for writing this paper: the problem of current global practices in food production, processing, and distribution. By presenting the “problem,” she immediately prepares readers for her proposed solution. end annotated text

public domain text The required changes will affect nearly all aspects of life, including not only world hunger but also health and welfare, land use and habitats, water quality and availability, energy use and production, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, economics, and even cultural and social values. These changes may not be popular, but they are imperative. The human race must turn to sustainable food systems that provide healthy diets with minimal environmental impact—and starting now. end public domain text

annotated text Thesis. Leading up to this clear, declarative thesis statement are key points on which Tran will expand later. In doing this, she presents some foundational evidence that connects the problem to the proposed solution. end annotated text

THE COMING FOOD CRISIS

public domain text The world population has been rising exponentially in modern history. From 1 billion in 1804, it doubled to approximately 2 billion by 1927, then doubled again to approximately 4 billion in 1974. By 2019, it had nearly doubled again, rising to 7.7 billion (“World Population by Year”). It has been projected to reach nearly 10 billion by 2050 (Berners-Lee et al.). At the same time, the average life span also has been increasing. These situations have led to severe stress on the environment, particularly in the demands for food. It has been estimated, for example, that by 2050, milk production will increase 58 percent and meat production 73 percent (Chai et al.). end public domain text

annotated text Evidence. In this first supporting paragraph, Tran uses numerical evidence from several sources. This numerical data as evidence helps establish the projection of population growth. By beginning with such evidence, Tran underscores the severity of the situation. end annotated text

public domain text Theoretically, the planet can produce enough food for everyone, but human activities have endangered this capability through unsustainable practices. Currently, agriculture produces 10–23 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases—the most common being carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapor— trap heat in the atmosphere, reradiate it, and send it back to Earth again. Heat trapped in the atmosphere is a problem because it causes unnatural global warming as well as air pollution, extreme weather conditions, and respiratory diseases. end public domain text

annotated text Audience. With her audience in mind, Tran briefly explains the problem of greenhouse gases and global warming. end annotated text

public domain text It has been estimated that global greenhouse gas emissions will increase by as much as 150 percent by 2030 (Chai et al.). Transportation also has a negative effect on the environment when foods are shipped around the world. As Joseph Poore of the University of Oxford commented, “It’s essential to be mindful about everything we consume: air-transported fruit and veg can create more greenhouse gas emissions per kilogram than poultry meat, for example” (qtd. in Gray). end public domain text

annotated text Transition. By beginning this paragraph with her own transition of ideas, Tran establishes control over the organization and development of ideas. Thus, she retains her sources as supports and does not allow them to dominate her essay. end annotated text

public domain text Current practices have affected the nutritional value of foods. Concentrated animal-feeding operations, intended to increase production, have had the side effect of decreasing nutritional content in animal protein and increasing saturated fat. One study found that an intensively raised chicken in 2017 contained only one-sixth of the amount of omega-3 fatty acid, an essential nutrient, that was in a chicken in 1970. Today the majority of calories in chicken come from fat rather than protein (World Wildlife Fund). end public domain text

annotated text Example. By focusing on an example (chicken), Tran uses specific research data to develop the nuance of the argument. end annotated text

public domain text Current policies such as government subsidies that divert food to biofuels are counterproductive to the goal of achieving adequate global nutrition. Some trade policies allow “dumping” of below-cost, subsidized foods on developing countries that should instead be enabled to protect their farmers and meet their own nutritional needs (Sierra Club). Too often, agriculture’s objectives are geared toward maximizing quantities produced per acre rather than optimizing output of critical nutritional needs and protection of the environment. end public domain text

AREAS OF CONCERN

Hunger and nutrition.

annotated text Headings and Subheadings. Throughout the essay, Tran has created headings and subheadings to help organize her argument and clarify it for readers. end annotated text

public domain text More than 820 million people around the world do not have enough to eat. At the same time, about a third of all grains and almost two-thirds of all soybeans, maize, and barley crops are fed to animals (Barnard). According to the World Health Organization, 462 million adults are underweight, 47 million children under 5 years of age are underweight for their height, 14.3 million are severely underweight for their height, and 144 million are stunted (“Malnutrition”). About 45 percent of mortality among children under 5 is linked to undernutrition. These deaths occur mainly in low- and middle-income countries where, in stark contrast, the rate of childhood obesity is rising. Globally, 1.9 billion adults and 38.3 million children are overweight or obese (“Obesity”). Undernutrition and obesity can be found in the same household, largely a result of eating energy-dense foods that are high in fat and sugars. The global impact of malnutrition, which includes both undernutrition and obesity, has lasting developmental, economic, social, and medical consequences. end public domain text

public domain text In 2019, Berners-Lee et al. published the results of their quantitative analysis of global and regional food supply. They determined that significant changes are needed on four fronts: end public domain text

Food production must be sufficient, in quantity and quality, to feed the global population without unacceptable environmental impacts. Food distribution must be sufficiently efficient so that a diverse range of foods containing adequate nutrition is available to all, again without unacceptable environmental impacts. Socio-economic conditions must be sufficiently equitable so that all consumers can access the quantity and range of foods needed for a healthy diet. Consumers need to be able to make informed and rational choices so that they consume a healthy and environmentally sustainable diet (10).

annotated text Block Quote. The writer has chosen to present important evidence as a direct quotation, using the correct format for direct quotations longer than four lines. See Section Editing Focus: Integrating Sources and Quotations for more information about block quotes. end annotated text

public domain text Among their findings, they singled out, in particular, the practice of using human-edible crops to produce meat, dairy, and fish for the human table. Currently 34 percent of human-edible crops are fed to animals, a practice that reduces calorie and protein supplies. They state in their report, “If society continues on a ‘business-as-usual’ dietary trajectory, a 119% increase in edible crops grown will be required by 2050” (1). Future food production and distribution must be transformed into systems that are nutritionally adequate, environmentally sound, and economically affordable. end public domain text

Land and Water Use

public domain text Agriculture occupies 40 percent of Earth’s ice-free land mass (Barnard). While the net area used for producing food has been fairly constant since the mid-20th century, the locations have shifted significantly. Temperate regions of North America, Europe, and Russia have lost agricultural land to other uses, while in the tropics, agricultural land has expanded, mainly as a result of clearing forests and burning biomass (Willett et al.). Seventy percent of the rainforest that has been cut down is being used to graze livestock (Münter). Agricultural use of water is of critical concern both quantitatively and qualitatively. Agriculture accounts for about 70 percent of freshwater use, making it “the world’s largest water-consuming sector” (Barnard). Meat, dairy, and egg production causes water pollution, as liquid wastes flow into rivers and to the ocean (World Wildlife Fund and Knorr Foods). According to the Hertwich et al., “the impacts related to these activities are unlikely to be reduced, but rather enhanced, in a business-as-usual scenario for the future” (13). end public domain text

annotated text Statistical Data. To develop her points related to land and water use, Tran presents specific statistical data throughout this section. Notice that she has chosen only the needed words of these key points to ensure that she controls the development of the supporting point and does not overuse borrowed source material. end annotated text

annotated text Defining Terms. Aware of her audience, Tran defines monocropping , a term that may be unfamiliar. end annotated text

public domain text Earth’s resources and ability to absorb pollution are limited, and many current agricultural practices undermine these capacities. Among these unsustainable practices are monocropping [growing a single crop year after year on the same land], concentrated animal-feeding operations, and overdependence on manufactured pesticides and fertilizers (Hamilton). Such practices deplete the soil, dramatically increase energy use, reduce pollinator populations, and lead to the collapse of resource supplies. One study found that producing one gram of beef for human consumption requires 42 times more land, 2 times more water, and 4 times more nitrogen than staple crops. It also creates 3 times more greenhouse gas emissions (Chai et al.). The EAT– Lancet Commission calls for “halting expansion of new agricultural land at the expense of natural ecosystems . . . strict protections on intact ecosystems, suspending concessions for logging in protected areas, or conversion of remaining intact ecosystems, particularly peatlands and forest areas” (Willett et al. 481). The Commission also calls for land-use zoning, regulations prohibiting land clearing, and incentives for protecting natural areas, including forests. end public domain text

annotated text Synthesis. The paragraphs above and below this comment show how Tran has synthesized content from several sources to help establish and reinforce key supports of her essay . end annotated text

Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change

public domain text Climate change is heavily affected by two factors: greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration. In nature, the two remain in balance; for example, most animals exhale carbon dioxide, and most plants capture carbon dioxide. Carbon is also captured, or sequestered, by soil and water, especially oceans, in what are called “sinks.” Human activities have skewed this balance over the past two centuries. The shift in land use, which exploits land, water, and fossil energy, has caused increased greenhouse-gas emissions, which in turn accelerate climate change. end public domain text

public domain text Global food systems are threatened by climate change because farmers depend on relatively stable climate systems to plan for production and harvest. Yet food production is responsible for up to 30 percent of greenhouse gas emissions (Barnard). While soil can be a highly effective means of carbon sequestration, agricultural soils have lost much of their effectiveness from overgrazing, erosion, overuse of chemical fertilizer, and excess tilling. Hamilton reports that the world’s cultivated and grazed soils have lost 50 to 70 percent of their ability to accumulate and store carbon. As a result, “billions of tons of carbon have been released into the atmosphere.” end public domain text

annotated text Direct Quotation and Paraphrase. While Tran has paraphrased some content of this source borrowing, because of the specificity and impact of the number— “billions of tons of carbon”—she has chosen to use the author’s original words. As she has done elsewhere in the essay, she has indicated these as directly borrowed words by placing them within quotation marks. See Section 12.5 for more about paraphrasing. end annotated text

public domain text While carbon sequestration has been falling, greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing as a result of the production, transport, processing, storage, waste disposal, and other life stages of food production. Agriculture alone is responsible for fully 10 to 12 percent of global emissions, and that figure is estimated to rise by up to 150 percent of current levels by 2030 (Chai et al.). Münter reports that “more greenhouse gas emissions are produced by growing livestock for meat than all the planes, trains, ships, cars, trucks, and all forms of fossil fuel-based transportation combined” (5). Additional greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide, are produced by the decomposition of organic wastes. Methane has 25 times and nitrous oxide has nearly 300 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (Curnow). Agricultural and food production systems must be reformed to shift agriculture from greenhouse gas source to sink. end public domain text

Social and Cultural Values

public domain text As the Sierra Club has pointed out, agriculture is inherently cultural: all systems of food production have “the capacity to generate . . . economic benefits and ecological capital” as well as “a sense of meaning and connection to natural resources.” Yet this connection is more evident in some cultures and less so in others. Wealthy countries built on a consumer culture emphasize excess consumption. One result of this attitude is that in 2014, Americans discarded the equivalent of $165 billion worth of food. Much of this waste ended up rotting in landfills, comprised the single largest component of U.S. municipal solid waste, and contributed a substantial portion of U.S. methane emissions (Sierra Club). In low- and middle-income countries, food waste tends to occur in early production stages because of poor scheduling of harvests, improper handling of produce, or lack of market access (Willett et al.). The recent “America First” philosophy has encouraged prioritizing the economic welfare of one nation to the detriment of global welfare and sustainability. end public domain text

annotated text Synthesis and Response to Claims. Here, as in subsequent sections, while still relying heavily on facts and content from borrowed sources, Tran provides her synthesized understanding of the information by responding to key points. end annotated text

public domain text In response to claims that a vegetarian diet is a necessary component of sustainable food production and consumption, Lusk and Norwood determined the importance of meat in a consumer’s diet. Their study indicated that meat is the most valuable food category to consumers, and “humans derive great pleasure from consuming beef, pork, and poultry” (120). Currently only 4 percent of Americans are vegetarians, and it would be difficult to convince consumers to change their eating habits. Purdy adds “there’s the issue of philosophy. A lot of vegans aren’t in the business of avoiding animal products for the sake of land sustainability. Many would prefer to just leave animal husbandry out of food altogether.” end public domain text

public domain text At the same time, consumers expect ready availability of the foods they desire, regardless of health implications or sustainability of sources. Unhealthy and unsustainable foods are heavily marketed. Out-of-season produce is imported year-round, increasing carbon emissions from air transportation. Highly processed and packaged convenience foods are nutritionally inferior and waste both energy and packaging materials. Serving sizes are larger than necessary, contributing to overconsumption and obesity. Snack food vending machines are ubiquitous in schools and public buildings. What is needed is a widespread attitude shift toward reducing waste, choosing local fruits and vegetables that are in season, and paying attention to how foods are grown and transported. end public domain text

annotated text Thesis Restated. Restating her thesis, Tran ends this section by advocating for a change in attitude to bring about sustainability. end annotated text

DISSENTING OPINIONS

annotated text Counterclaims . Tran uses equally strong research to present the counterargument. Presenting both sides by addressing objections is important in constructing a clear, well-reasoned argument. Writers should use as much rigor in finding research-based evidence to counter the opposition as they do to develop their argument. end annotated text

public domain text Transformation of the food production system faces resistance for a number of reasons, most of which dispute the need for plant-based diets. Historically, meat has been considered integral to athletes’ diets and thus has caused many consumers to believe meat is necessary for a healthy diet. Lynch et al. examined the impact of plant-based diets on human physical health, environmental sustainability, and exercise performance capacity. The results show “it is unlikely that plant-based diets provide advantages, but do not suffer from disadvantages, compared to omnivorous diets for strength, anaerobic, or aerobic exercise performance” (1). end public domain text

public domain text A second objection addresses the claim that land use for animal-based food production contributes to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and is inefficient in terms of nutrient delivery. Berners-Lee et al. point out that animal nutrition from grass, pasture, and silage comes partially from land that cannot be used for other purposes, such as producing food directly edible by humans or for other ecosystem services such as biofuel production. Consequently, nutritional losses from such land use do not fully translate into losses of human-available nutrients (3). end public domain text

annotated text Paraphrase. Tran has paraphrased the information as support. Though she still cites the source, she has changed the words to her own, most likely to condense a larger amount of original text or to make it more accessible. end annotated text

public domain text While this objection may be correct, it does not address the fact that natural carbon sinks are being destroyed to increase agricultural land and, therefore, increase greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. end public domain text

public domain text Another significant dissenting opinion is that transforming food production will place hardships on farmers and others employed in the food industry. Farmers and ranchers make a major investment in their own operations. At the same time, they support jobs in related industries, as consumers of farm machinery, customers at local businesses, and suppliers for other industries such as food processing (Schulz). Sparks reports that “livestock farmers are being unfairly ‘demonized’ by vegans and environmental advocates” and argues that while farming includes both costs and benefits, the costs receive much more attention than the benefits. end public domain text

FUTURE GENERATIONS

public domain text The EAT– Lancet Commission calls for a transformation in the global food system, implementing different core processes and feedback. This transformation will not happen unless there is “widespread, multi-sector, multilevel action to change what food is eaten, how it is produced, and its effects on the environment and health, while providing healthy diets for the global population” (Willett et al. 476). System changes will require global efforts coordinated across all levels and will require governments, the private sector, and civil society to share a common vision and goals. Scientific modeling indicates 10 billion people could indeed be fed a healthy and sustainable diet. end public domain text

annotated text Conclusion. While still using research-based sources as evidence in the concluding section, Tran finishes with her own words, restating her thesis. end annotated text

public domain text For the human race to have a sustainable future, massive changes in the way food is produced, processed, and distributed are necessary on a global scale. The required changes will affect nearly all aspects of life, including not only world hunger but also health and welfare, land use and habitats, water quality and availability, energy use and production, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, economics, and even cultural and social values. These changes may not be popular, but they are imperative. They are also achievable. The human race must turn to sustainable food systems that provide healthy diets with minimal environmental impact, starting now. end public domain text

annotated text Sources. Note two important aspects of the sources chosen: 1) They represent a range of perspectives, and 2) They are all quite current. When exploring a contemporary topic, it is important to avoid research that is out of date. end annotated text

Works Cited

Barnard, Neal. “How Eating More Plants Can Save Lives and the Planet.” Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine , 24 Jan. 2019, www.pcrm.org/news/blog/how-eating-more-plants-can-save-lives-and-planet. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Berners-Lee, M., et al. “Current Global Food Production Is Sufficient to Meet Human Nutritional Needs in 2050 Provided There Is Radical Societal Adaptation.” Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene , vol. 6, no. 52, 2018, doi:10.1525/elementa.310. Accessed 7 Dec. 2020.

Chai, Bingli Clark, et al. “Which Diet Has the Least Environmental Impact on Our Planet? A Systematic Review of Vegan, Vegetarian and Omnivorous Diets.” Sustainability , vol. 11, no. 15, 2019, doi: underline 10.3390/su11154110 end underline . Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Curnow, Mandy. “Managing Manure to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” Government of Western Australia, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, 2 Nov. 2020, www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-change/managing-manure-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020.

Gray, Richard. “Why the Vegan Diet Is Not Always Green.” BBC , 13 Feb. 2020, www.bbc.com/future/article/20200211-why-the-vegan-diet-is-not-always-green. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Hamilton, Bruce. “Food and Our Climate.” Sierra Club, 2014, www.sierraclub.org/compass/2014/10/food-and-our-climate. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Hertwich. Edgar G., et al. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Consumption and Production. United Nations Environment Programme, 2010, www.resourcepanel.org/reports/assessing-environmental-impacts-consumption-and-production.

Lusk, Jayson L., and F. Bailey Norwood. “Some Economic Benefits and Costs of Vegetarianism.” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review , vol. 38, no. 2, 2009, pp. 109-24, doi: 10.1017/S1068280500003142. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Lynch Heidi, et al. “Plant-Based Diets: Considerations for Environmental Impact, Protein Quality, and Exercise Performance.” Nutrients, vol. 10, no. 12, 2018, doi:10.3390/nu10121841. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Münter, Leilani. “Why a Plant-Based Diet Will Save the World.” Health and the Environment. Disruptive Women in Health Care & the United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2012, archive.epa.gov/womenandgirls/web/pdf/1016healththeenvironmentebook.pdf.

Purdy, Chase. “Being Vegan Isn’t as Good for Humanity as You Think.” Quartz , 4 Aug. 2016, qz.com/749443/being-vegan-isnt-as-environmentally-friendly-as-you-think/. Accessed 7 Dec. 2020.

Schulz, Lee. “Would a Sudden Loss of the Meat and Dairy Industry, and All the Ripple Effects, Destroy the Economy?” Iowa State U Department of Economics, www.econ.iastate.edu/node/691. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Sierra Club. “Agriculture and Food.” Sierra Club, 28 Feb. 2015, www.sierraclub.org/policy/agriculture/food. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Sparks, Hannah. “Veganism Won’t Save the World from Environmental Ruin, Researchers Warn.” New York Post , 29 Nov. 2019, nypost.com/2019/11/29/veganism-wont-save-the-world-from-environmental-ruin-researchers-warn/. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

Willett, Walter, et al. “Food in the Anthropocene: The EAT– Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems.” The Lancet, vol. 393, no. 10170, 2019. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.

World Health Organization. “Malnutrition.” World Health Organization, 1 Apr. 2020, www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malnutrition. Accessed 8 Dec. 2020.

World Health Organization. “Obesity and Overweight.” World Health Organization, 1 Apr. 2020, www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight. Accessed 8 Dec. 2020.

World Wildlife Fund. Appetite for Destruction: Summary Report. World Wildlife Fund, 2017, www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2017-10/WWF_AppetiteForDestruction_Summary_Report_SignOff.pdf.

World Wildlife Fund and Knorr Foods. Future Fifty Foods. World Wildlife Fund, 2019, www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2019-02/Knorr_Future_50_Report_FINAL_Online.pdf.

“World Population by Year.” Worldometer , www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/. Accessed 8 Dec. 2020.

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As the world’s population grows every minute, there are more and more mouths to feed.  In fact, there are so many mouths to feed that ‘overpopulation’ is now a big concern for our planet’s future. 

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• Published: 06 March 2023

Future warming from global food consumption

• Catherine C. Ivanovich   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0703-4786 1 , 2 ,
• Tianyi Sun 2 ,
• Doria R. Gordon   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-6398-2345 2 , 3 &
• Ilissa B. Ocko   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8617-2249 2  

Nature Climate Change volume  13 ,  pages 297–302 ( 2023 ) Cite this article

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• Climate and Earth system modelling
• Climate-change mitigation
• Projection and prediction

Food consumption is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and evaluating its future warming impact is crucial for guiding climate mitigation action. However, the lack of granularity in reporting food item emissions and the widespread use of oversimplified metrics such as CO 2 equivalents have complicated interpretation. We resolve these challenges by developing a global food consumption GHG emissions inventory separated by individual gas species and employing a reduced-complexity climate model, evaluating the associated future warming contribution and potential benefits from certain mitigation measures. We find that global food consumption alone could add nearly 1 °C to warming by 2100. Seventy five percent of this warming is driven by foods that are high sources of methane (ruminant meat, dairy and rice). However, over 55% of anticipated warming can be avoided from simultaneous improvements to production practices, the universal adoption of a healthy diet and consumer- and retail-level food waste reductions.

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Food is both an essential aspect of life and a considerable source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The agriculture sector is responsible for nearly half of methane (CH 4 ) emissions, two-thirds of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and 3% of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from human activities worldwide 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 . These three GHGs account for 80% of today’s gross warming (29, 5 and 46%, respectively) 1 , suggesting that agriculture may be responsible for approximately 15% of current warming levels. However, only one-third of countries reference agriculture mitigation measures in nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement 5 . To encourage more commitments to decreasing GHG emissions from food systems and support effective policy design, it is important to improve understanding of the role of global food consumption in contributing to future warming.

The challenge in estimating the warming impact of the agriculture sector is its emission of multiple GHGs with widely varying radiative properties, atmospheric longevities and emission sources 1 , 6 . Carbon dioxide, a gas that can last for hundreds of years in the atmosphere, is emitted throughout the food supply chain from sources such as energy use from cultivation machinery and product transportation. Methane, a gas able to trap more than 100 times more heat than CO 2 for equal mass but with an atmospheric lifetime of around a decade 1 , is emitted primarily from the production of animal products and rice, through enteric fermentation, manure management and rice paddy methanogenesis. Nitrous oxide can trap over 250 times more heat than CO 2 by mass, lasts around a century 1 and is emitted through synthetic fertilizer use, the cultivation of nitrogen-fixing crops and ruminant excretion on rangelands.

To assess the warming impacts of agriculture that arise from these combined emissions, studies often use the simple metrics global warming potential (GWP) and its counterpart CO 2 equivalence (CO 2 e) to estimate the impact of these gases on a common scale 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 . GWP quantifies the energy absorbed from a pulse of emissions of a non-CO 2 GHG relative to that of the same mass of CO 2 over a specified time horizon (for example, 100 or 20 years). CO 2 e uses the GWP as a multiplier to convert an amount of non-CO 2 emissions to the amount of CO 2 that would yield the same warming impact over a given timeframe. However, these metrics do not realistically convey climate impacts because they do not account for continuous and evolving emissions, do not calculate warming impacts over time and require the selection of an arbitrary time horizon that ultimately skews the climate impacts of either short- or long-lived GHGs 14 . For example, the most common time horizon is 100 years, which masks methane’s true potency by considering several decades in which methane is no longer influencing the climate.

While alternative metrics have been proposed to improve the quantification of methane’s impacts 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , none are without shortcomings 19 , 20 , 21 and climate modelling is still a superior method for assessing temperature impacts of GHG emissions over time. Of the studies that do go beyond simple metrics and estimate the warming impacts of food consumption using climate models, only select food items or food groups (such as beef and livestock) have been analysed 22 , 23 . A more comprehensive analysis that investigates the warming impact of all food sources is needed because it will: (1) improve understanding of how food consumption contributes to climate change in the near and distant future; (2) make clear the relative importance of different foods and gases in contributing to climate change; and (3) provide guidance for climate mitigation efforts in the food sector.

Therefore, in this analysis, we estimate the future warming impacts of sustaining current global dietary consumption patterns throughout the twenty-first century by using a reduced-complexity climate model. We develop a detailed inventory of individual GHG emissions from current food consumption based on an extensive literature review (Supplementary Table 1 ). We then scale annual emissions over time by gas based on a set of five population projections and model the impacts of these emissions on surface air temperature change using the reduced-complexity Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) version 6 (ref. 24 ). We consider multiple population projections and attribute the climate impacts (via global mean surface air temperature change) to individual gases and food groups. Furthermore, we estimate how much future warming through 2100 may be avoided through demand- and supply-side interventions. These interventions are selected to reflect currently available mitigation strategies throughout the food supply chain and include realistic modifications to production practices 25 , 26 , health-motivated changes to diets 27 , decarbonization of the energy sector and decreases in retail- and consumer-level food waste.

Given that the most detailed, global-scale GHG emissions inventory covering the life cycle of a comprehensive list of individual food items reports emissions estimates in CO 2 e100 (using GWPs with a 100-year time horizon 8 ), we first disaggregated emissions into their individual GHG components (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O) in order to input the emissions data into the climate model. We did this for 94 food items based on a literature review of 115 studies and a total of 206 estimations of the individual gas breakdowns for each food item or group (see Supplementary Table 1 for the emissions breakdown and system boundaries for each study). Present-day emissions were then calculated based on data outlining the food available for consumption for 171 countries from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food balance sheets 3 and summed over the global scale. Following the methodology of the FAO, food consumption here refers to the total mass of food available at the retail level, where food loss incurred throughout production and transportation has been removed. For a full overview of the inventory methodology, see the Methods .

Global food consumption emissions by GHG

The total global annual GHG emissions for food consumption in 2010 were estimated as 4,860 million tonnes (Mt) CO 2 , 151 Mt CH 4 and 9 Mt N 2 O. These values are consistent with recent estimates 2 , 3 , 28 , 29 , but are on the lower end of the range for CO 2 and on the higher end for CH 4 and N 2 O. When combined using standard CO 2 e metrics, our estimates (13 and 22 Gt for the 100- and 20-year GWPs (GWP100 and GWP20), respectively) fall within the ranges provided throughout the literature, which employ both a top-down and bottom-up approach for agricultural emissions accounting 8 , 17 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 . Potential differences may stem from the comprehensive food consumption data to which we apply emissions rates, the impacts of averaging the ratio of component gases over some food groups, differences in regional production methods and the inclusion of some life cycle assessments which cover slightly different production stages. For detailed comparisons with previous literature, see the Supplementary Discussion .

Projected warming from business-as-usual food consumption

Using these individual GHG emissions trajectories as model inputs, we found that should current dietary patterns and agricultural production practices continue through the end of the century, global food consumption alone could contribute between 0.7 ± 0.2 and 0.9 ± 0.2 °C above present-day warming levels, depending on the population growth trend (Fig. 1 ). As we had already reached more than 1 °C warming above preindustrial levels by 2021 1 , this additional warming alone is enough to surpass the 1.5 °C global warming target and approach the 2 °C threshold established by the Paris Agreement (assuming that current warming from GHG emissions is largely irreversible in the near future; for example, Solomon et al. 34 ). Methane is responsible for the majority of the projected increase, accounting for nearly 60% of the warming associated with food consumption by the end of the century. About 20% of the end-of-century warming is attributed each to CO 2 and N 2 O emissions (Fig. 2 ).

GHG emissions (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) from food consumption were calculated using the database developed herein and the population projections developed for the following SSPs, as outlined by Riahi et al. 57 : Regional Rivalry, Inequality, Middle of the Road, Fossil-Fuelled Development and Sustainability (corresponding to SSP3, SSP4, SSP2, SSP5 and SSP1, respectively). The future warming associated with consumption from a constant 2020 global population is also provided for reference. RCP8.5 emissions were input for all sectors other than agriculture and all forcers other than carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide to develop all-forcing baseline simulations from which the isolated food consumption temperature responses were derived (see Extended Data Fig. 1 for the results using RCP4.5 emissions). The shading represents 95% confidence intervals based on 190 ensemble members and the lines represent the mean of these ensemble members. The Inequality (SSP4) scenario is identified by a dotted line to better visualize overlapping results.

Population projections were taken from the SSP3 Regional Rivalry population growth scenario. The results shown are the means of a 190-member ensemble.

We aggregated the emissions from each food item into 12 food groups: grains, rice, fruit, vegetables, ruminant meat, non-ruminant meat, seafood, dairy, eggs, oils, beverages and other. We found that the consumption of dairy and meat is responsible for more than half of the warming by the year 2030 and through to the year 2100 (Fig. 3 ). Of the other food groups, rice contributes to a large fraction of end-of-century warming (19%), whereas vegetables, grains, seafood, oils, beverages, eggs, fruit and all other uncategorized food items each contribute 5% or less. We note that the relative contribution of each food group towards end of century warming is distinct from their individual share of annual emissions in CO 2 e20 and CO 2 e100 (Extended Data Fig. 2 ). However, the dominance of meat, rice and dairy products towards the total climate impact of food consumption measured by each of these metrics is consistent.

Contributions are presented for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100. The pie chart in the top right corner visualizes year 2030 percentage contributions. Population projections were taken from the SSP3 Regional Rivalry population growth scenario.

Our study assumes that dietary patterns will remain constant through to the end of the century. However, the demand for ruminant meat is expected to increase by ~90% by 2050, while the consumption of all animal products is projected to grow by ~70% 35 . This growth far exceeds that proportional to projected population growth (an increase from 8 billion people to nearly 10 billion people by the midcentury), as future economic development around the world is expected to facilitate the purchase of more expensive goods such as meat and dairy items 36 , 37 . Therefore, given the relatively high emissions intensity of animal products compared with other food sources, our projected warming is likely an underestimate. Indeed, our estimates are lower than recently published literature estimating the future warming associated with livestock production 22 , 23 (for further details, see the Supplementary Discussion ).

Avoided warming from mitigation methods

There is, however, considerable potential for emissions mitigation through available modifications to production practices 9 , 25 , 26 , 29 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , consumption patterns 9 , 26 , 29 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 and food loss and waste 43 , 46 , 47 . Here we evaluated the amount of warming that could be avoided by pursuing efforts to decrease emissions from both supply- and demand-side interventions. We used the highest-population-growth scenario as our baseline, to quantify the upper end of potential climate benefits. Within each of the mitigation scenarios investigated, the choice of baseline population growth impacts the magnitude of avoided warming, but this magnitude is scalable, and the percentage decrease of future warming associated with each mitigation scenario remains roughly the same regardless of the assumed population growth pattern (Supplementary Table 2 ).

The first case we considered was improvement to production practices. We analysed emissions reduction potentials from improving the production processes associated with the four food categories that exhibit the highest relative contribution to warming: ruminant meat, rice, dairy and non-ruminant meat. Based on a recent comprehensive evaluation of available technologies, there are maximum potential decreases of roughly 35, 30 and 10% in total CO 2 e100 emissions associated with ruminant meat, dairy and non-ruminant meat, respectively 26 . Mitigation options employed in these scenarios primarily concern the decrease of enteric methane emissions and manure methane and nitrous oxide emissions, although further reductions may be possible through mechanisms such as decreasing nitrous oxide emissions from the cultivation of animal feed. Rice exhibits the potential for a 50% decrease in methane emissions 25 , although studies have suggested that the associated production changes could increase nitrous oxide emissions, which were not included here 40 . Similarly, we did not account for the development of new technology that could potentially decrease emissions or modifications to agricultural practices in response to changing local climates (for example, adapting to a changing climate by shifting crop locations). Our model simulations indicate that the immediate adoption of these production practices (emissions decreased linearly until full implementation by 2030) would avoid ~0.2 °C warming, or nearly one-quarter of the anticipated warming from food consumption by year 2100 (Fig. 4 ).

Population projections were taken from the SSP3 Regional Rivalry population growth scenario. The scenarios include: (1) current dietary consumption patterns continued through to the end of the century ('no mitigation'); (2) a 50% decrease in retail-level food waste ('reduce retail food waste by 50%'); (3) a 50% decrease in consumer-level food waste ('reduce consumer food waste by 50%'); (4) full decarbonization of food production by the year 2050 ('decarbonization of food production'); (5) all people adopt a healthy diet as prescribed by the Harvard Medical School ('global conversion to healthy diet'); (6) technologically feasible production practice improvements are employed globally ('maximum production improvements'); and (7) all mitigation methods are employed simultaneously ('all mitigation methods'). The shading represents 95% confidence intervals based on 190 ensemble members and the lines represent the means of these ensemble members.

Consistent with international net zero emissions by midcentury goals, we also evaluated the warming reductions associated with food consumption should the energy sector be decarbonized by 2050. We found that this decarbonization of the energy sector would decrease end-of-century warming associated with global food consumption by ~17% or an additional 0.15 °C.

Next, we considered changes to dietary behaviours by analysing the potential avoided warming associated with the universal adoption of healthier diets. Previous studies have found that there may be synergies between actions associated with improving health and those associated with reducing GHG emissions intensity, and a health-driven mission may be more likely to be adopted on a global scale than changes in dietary behaviour in response to environmental concerns 12 , 36 , 37 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 48 , 49 , 50 . We used dietary recommendations provided by the Harvard Medical School, which focus on reduced meat intake, promoting a protein-rich diet with less saturated fat and cholesterol 27 . These recommendations specifically prescribe the sparing consumption of red meat (beef and pork; about one serving per week) and the limited consumption of fish, poultry and eggs (up to two servings each per day) 27 . We found that if these dietary changes were implemented globally, warming due to food consumption could be decreased by 0.19 °C by the end of the century, consistent with previous literature that has highlighted the potential for dietary recommendations to provide environmental as well as health benefits 42 , 45 , 48 , 49 , 50 . This amounts to ~21% of the anticipated warming due to sustained dietary consumption rates.

Behavioural change on a global scale is extremely complex, as dietary composition is often determined by culturally significant traditions or limited access to diverse food items (for example, Sobal and Bisogni 51 ). In the mitigation scenario associated with implementing dietary recommendations, we modelled changes to the global average consumption rates, which resulted in decreases of animal product consumption in countries such as the United States and Spain while requiring increases in countries such as India and Ethiopia (see Extended Data Figs. 3 – 5 ). This suggested that implementing smaller dietary changes only in the regions currently dominating the consumption of high-emissions-intensity food items could equally decrease global emissions from food consumption. However, the intricacies of dietary composition choice limit how much of this mitigation potential is feasible or ethical to enact.

Finally, studies have also highlighted the potential for decreasing food loss and waste—at the farm, transport, retail and consumer level—as an avenue for decreasing agricultural GHG emissions 43 , 46 , 47 , 52 . Thus, we also explored the mitigation potential of decreasing retail- and consumer-level food waste by one-half, in line with the country-level pledges such as the United States 2030 Food Loss and Waste Reduction Goal 53 . We estimated food waste using the annex to FAOSTAT’s food balance sheets 3 , 52 , 54 , applying a regional average value per food group. If retail (consumer)-level food waste were cut in half, end-of-century warming would be decreased by 0.04 °C (0.03 °C), ~5% (4%) of the anticipated warming associated with dietary consumption. These reductions do not consider a decrease of food loss throughout the production chain, which could increase the overall reduction in warming substantially 47 . We were unable to assess this contribution as our underlying consumption data already excluded food lost throughout the farm and transport stages 3 . Based on global average estimates from the FAO, ~52% of food loss and waste occurs before the retail stage 54 . Were 50% reductions in food loss to be enacted through the production and transportation stages, we may expect an additional reduction in end-of-century warming on a similar scale (~0.1 °C).

Several studies have highlighted that multiscale approaches are needed for meaningful mitigation and that supply- and demand-side strategies should be adopted in tandem 8 , 41 , 55 . Should improved production practices, energy decarbonization, healthy diets and reduced food waste be pursued simultaneously with additive consequences, 0.5 °C of additional future warming may be avoided by 2100—more than 55% of the anticipated warming from sustaining global food consumption.

We found that sustaining current dietary patterns worldwide throughout the rest of the century could amount to nearly 1 °C of additional warming beyond today’s level of ~1 °C above preindustrial times. Even under a range of population growth scenarios, we expect at least 0.7 ± 0.2 °C and up to 0.9 ± 0.2 °C of additional warming (under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 (SSP1) and SSP3 population projections, respectively). Either scenario would surpass the 1.5 °C temperature target from food consumption alone. Furthermore, with the increasing demand expected for animal products, we could see even more warming from food consumption than has been estimated here.

However, we also found that technologically available improvements to production practices, decarbonization of the energy sector, health-motivated changes in dietary habits and reductions in food waste could together decrease the anticipated warming by >55% compared with sustained dietary consumption rates, avoiding 0.5 °C relative to a business-as-usual baseline for a high-population-growth scenario. Further avoided warming potential lies within residual emissions that could be addressed by reductions in food loss throughout production stages or future technological innovations.

The key benefit of our approach in disaggregating GHG emissions from food consumption by gas is that it allows the use of a climate model to evaluate temperature responses to food consumption. This enables: (1) the quantification of food consumption’s contribution to climate change over time; (2) the elucidation of the relative importance of different foods and GHGs in contributing to a future temperature increase; and (3) the identification of impactful mitigation efforts in the food sector. These insights are either not possible or not captured to the extent warranted by standard metrics (that is, GWP100 or CO 2 e100) that undervalue methane’s contribution to climate change. This bias is particularly critical since methane is responsible for the majority of future warming from the food sector.

For example, our analysis shows the dominance of methane emissions in contributing to future near- and long-term warming from food consumption: methane emissions account for 73% of the additional temperature increase from food by the midcentury and 60% by the end of the century. Because methane emissions are relatively short lived and the ~30% of current warming attributed to methane is almost entirely from recent emissions 1 , decreasing methane emissions can rapidly benefit the climate. The global rate of warming in the coming decades would slow 41 , yielding societal benefits such as decreasing the probability of extreme weather and climate events 56 .

Our analysis also indicates that >80% of future warming from food consumption will be from meat, rice and dairy products: notably high-methane food groups. Therefore, focusing on emissions reductions from the production, consumption and waste of these food groups can play a major role in avoiding a temperature rise associated with food consumption. Currently, about one-third (50 of 148) of updated Paris Agreement nationally determined contributions mention livestock mitigation measures and less than one-fifth (25 of 148) mention rice mitigation measures 5 . Our analysis provides motivation for more countries to prioritize actions to reduce agricultural GHG emissions.

Our results are impacted by several sources of uncertainty in the underlying data, such as standard uncertainties in the modelling of climate responses to GHG emissions and limitations in available GHG emissions data from individual food items. Future emissions will also be dependent on changes in consumption patterns and population growth. However, our analysis clearly demonstrates that current dietary production and consumption patterns are incompatible with sustaining a growing population while pursuing a secure climate future. Fortunately, compelling mitigation options are available to address this challenge.

We first built a comprehensive dietary emissions inventory (see Supplementary Data 1 ), which was developed by incorporating data from several different types of analyses. The life cycle emissions, in CO 2 e100, from the production of individual food items (eggs, apples, pig meat and so on) were taken from Poore and Nemecek 8 and represent ~90% of global protein and calorie consumption. We matched these aggregate emissions estimates to consumption data from the FAOSTAT food balance sheets. When an exact match between food items in the two datasets was not available, we took weighted averages of the emissions associated with a representative food group or multiple food items, reflecting their relative reported consumption rates. We assessed the warming associated with the consumption of these food items by disaggregating the CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from CO 2 e values. In this analysis, the recorded CO 2 e100 emissions were disaggregated via estimations of the ratio of component gases emitted throughout the production of each unique food item from a synthesis of the results of 115 peer-reviewed studies, resulting in 206 total estimations (Supplementary Table 1 ). All life cycle assessments identified were included in the literature review if they: (1) outlined the total emission of individual GHGs, including CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O; and (2) had a system boundary that at least covered the full food item production process. To retain as many studies as possible, in an effort to increase sample size and regional representation in our literature review, we retained studies with system boundaries that went beyond the farm gate. However, we note that most (96 of the 115) studies consisted of only on-farm emissions (cradle-to-farm gate), and that off-farm emissions (from packaging, transportation and retail) contribute a minor share of overall emissions. Studies whose boundaries surpassed the farm gate probably had a larger share of emissions associated with electricity and fuel usage, favouring higher-percentage contributions from CO 2 based on current global energy sources. This may mean that our results overestimate the emissions of CH 4 and N 2 O and their associated contributions to future warming. Our analysis accounts for the emissions associated with land use change, as the underlying CO 2 e emissions used from Poore and Nemecek 8 include these emissions. We did not, however, adjust for land use change in the percentage breakdown of gas species. The extensive nature of this review demonstrates the need for better documentation of the emissions of individual GHGs within life cycle assessments. For more information about individual study boundaries, see Supplementary Table 1 .

When available, the average of the percentage breakdown of individual GHGs for an individual food item was used. When at least one life cycle assessment study outlining this breakdown for a given food item was not available, the average across the associated food group was applied. Food item emissions were then scaled by current annual per-capita consumption patterns of 95 individual food items with global dietary consumption data on a country scale from the FAO 3 , generating a country-scale database of current global dietary consumption emissions for all three major agricultural GHGs. This dataset was also aggregated into 12 categories, to distinguish between larger food groups.

We extrapolated this database through the end of the twenty-first century based on a range of population growth scenarios 57 , assuming sustained dietary patterns. We then employed a prominent reduced-complexity climate model 24 to simulate changes in surface air temperature over the next century from anticipated global food consumption—in total and separated by GHG and by food group. Finally, we investigated how much future warming may be avoided through demand- and supply-side interventions, specifically through realistic modifications to production practices 25 , 26 , health-motivated changes to diets 27 , decarbonization of the energy sector and a 50% decrease in retail- and consumer-level food waste.

Our database provides consumption data in multiple units: kilograms of food per capita per year, grams of food per capita per day, grams of protein per capita per day and grams of fat per capita per day. While unit choice does not affect the estimate of the total GHG emissions produced by the consumption of each country, and by sum the world, it does provide versatility when using the database to consider the climate impacts of dietary choice. For example, the database allows us to compare the amount of emissions associated with adding 5 g of beef to per-capita daily consumption, or substituting the consumption of chicken for fish while maintaining the same daily caloric intake. This granularity of the database allows for a precise comparison of dietary choices that is not available or considered in other studies.

Our analysis anticipates a growth in GHG emissions associated with global food consumption proportional to that by population, assuming that dietary patterns remain constant. Annual emissions associated with current global dietary consumption patterns were extrapolated through to the end of the century, proportional to five population projections representing a range of future socioeconomic and demographic changes 57 . We also provide the warming proportional to a constant year-2020 global population for reference. Note that the percentage contributions from component gas emissions and individual food group consumption were estimated based on the warming impacts associated with the highest-population-growth scenario.

Reduced-complexity climate model: MAGICC

The projected emissions were analysed through the use of a reduced-complexity climate model to directly estimate the temperature impact of food consumption. We employed MAGICC version 6. Extensive research has demonstrated model consistency with the sophisticated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project atmosphere–ocean and Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project carbon cycle models 24 , and today MAGICC is known for its reliability in modelling climate responses to small forcing changes 24 , 58 .

The MAGICC model pairs a hemispherically averaged upwelling–diffusion ocean coupled to a four-box atmosphere (one over land and one over the ocean in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere) with a carbon cycle model (with an average equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3 °C). Historical radiative forcings (years 1765–2005) are determined from historical GHG concentrations 59 , historical emissions of ozone precursors 60 , prescribed aerosol forcings, land use historical forcings (National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies model; http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ ) and solar irradiances 61 . From 2005–2100, radiative forcings depend on GHG emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone-depleting substances and their replacements), tropospheric ozone precursor emissions (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and non-methane volatile organic carbon), aerosol emissions (sulfate, black and organic carbon, sea salt and mineral dust) and the indirect effects of aerosols (both first and second).

The radiative efficiency of methane (accounting for both short- and longwave absorption) and its atmospheric lifetime, as well as the radiative efficiency the of tropospheric ozone are updated from the default MAGICC properties, to reflect recent updates to scientific understanding 28 , 57 , 62 , 63 . All other properties are as default. Uncertainties exist within the model associated with the field’s current knowledge of climate and carbon cycle processes, radiative forcings and indirect aerosol effects. The various calibration methods used by MAGICC determine the best parameterization from a wide variety of sophisticated models, but inherent uncertainties within these more comprehensive models will be translated into MAGICC’s results. The simplicity of MAGICC also requires that parameters are averaged over large spatial scales. Further details of the model uncertainties are discussed by Meinshausen et al. 24 .

Business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios

We ran 335-year integrations from 1765–2100 for a set of 50 different simulations. These simulations comprised 29 pathways associated with sustaining current dietary consumption patterns and 21 mitigation pathways based on potential production and consumption improvements. For future emissions from sectors other than agriculture, we used Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions data, but the climate impacts were subtracted out as described below. We generated a 190-member ensemble simulation to assess the most likely temperature outcomes for each emissions scenario. Several calibration parameters (for example, climate sensitivity, equilibrium ocean–land ratio, vertical thermal diffusivity and CO 2 fertilization factor) were adjusted to emulate 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models and ten Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project carbon cycle models.

The first 22 scenarios account for warming impacts due to: (1) all natural and anthropogenic forcings; (2–7) sustained food consumption rates based on five separate population projections and one constant population projection (for reference); and the isolation of (8) the carbon dioxide emissions from dietary consumption, (9) the methane emissions from dietary consumption, (10) the nitrous oxide emissions from dietary consumption, (11) total emissions from non-rice grain consumption, (12) total emissions from rice consumption, (13) total emissions from fruit consumption, (14) total emissions from vegetable consumption, (15) total emissions from ruminant meat consumption, (16) total emissions from non-ruminant meat consumption, (17) total emissions from seafood consumption, (18) total emissions from dairy consumption, (19) total emissions from egg consumption, (20) total emissions from oils consumption, (21) total emissions from beverage consumption and (22) total emissions from the consumption of all other uncategorized foods. As a sensitivity test, scenarios 1–7 were repeated using RCP4.5 emissions data for sectors other than agriculture, the results of which are presented in Extended Data Fig. 1 . Under this emissions scenario, we found that the warming accumulated by the end of the century that was associated with each scenario was actually higher than its RCP8.5 counterpart. This was due to the fact that RCP4.5 is more sensitive to a given change in CO 2 emissions relative to RCP8.5, primarily because CO 2 ’s radiative efficiency has a logarithmic relationship with its concentration (generating a higher relative change in radiative forcing associated with lower background concentrations).

We also investigated six mitigation scenarios: (1) universal implementation of technologically feasible production improvements; (2) the global adoption of a healthy diet; (3) a 50% reduction in retail-stage food waste; (4) a 50% reduction in consumer-stage food waste; (5) full decarbonization of the electricity sector; and (6) the implementation of all five mitigation actions simultaneously. Each of these mitigation scenarios was run five times, assuming one of the five population growth scenarios.

The warming associated with the emissions of each scenario must be isolated from that associated with all natural and anthropogenic sources. We thus first subtracted the total emissions of all gases associated with each simulation from the total RCP8.5 emissions in the all-forcing scenario driven by all natural and anthropogenic forcings (equation ( 1 )). The annual average mean surface temperature changes associated with these emissions profiles were subtracted from the temperature changes in the all-forcings scenario, to determine the contribution to future temperature change from each simulation (equation ( 2 )). Each mitigation scenario was analysed independent of other potential mitigation efforts that may occur outside of the agriculture sector. The same methodology can be used to isolate temperature changes due to the emissions of individual gases or from the consumption of specific food groups.

Potential sources of uncertainty

The regional composition of the global population is assumed to change with each population growth scenario. Specifically, the SSP3 scenario used as our baseline scenario exhibits the highest regional population growth rate in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. While the emissions intensities of the current diets consumed in these three regions are moderate to low compared with the rest of the globe, the extrapolation of current consumption and production data along these population projections reflects some economic and social factors. The effects of future trends in age or gender on a regional scale and how these factors may influence regional GHG emissions associated with diet were not considered.

In this analysis, we only assessed the mitigation potential for emissions from food waste at the retail and consumer stage, as we intended to measure the future contribution to warming from direct dietary consumption. The mass of each food item reported in the FAOSTAT database does not include the mass of food lost throughout the production chain up to the retail stage, and retail- and consumer-level food waste was estimated via the annex to FAOSTAT’s food balance sheets to calculate potential emissions reductions for the associated mitigation scenario 3 , 54 . This application of an average food waste rate across items within a food group and countries within larger regions is a source of uncertainty within this study. Further development of studies concerning food waste rates across the globe will improve our ability to model these values.

This study also did not consider the potential for land use availability to limit the future growth of food production. Recent literature has highlighted the range in land use associated with various diets and their viability as the global population continues to grow 8 , 12 , 36 , 64 , 65 , 66 . Potential future strain on land use demand associated with other societal needs, such as biofuel production, reforestation and commercial development, may necessitate a limit in the growth of dietary consumption.

Although life cycle assessments for the production of individual food items are vast in number, the literature is not representative of every production practice and reports often aggregate GHG emissions into CO 2 e emissions. Various approximations are thus necessary in order to estimate the global GHG emissions from dietary consumption and the potential for mitigation using currently available data. The first source of uncertainty from these approximations is associated with the underlying CO 2 e emissions assigned to each food item. We applied the reported mean CO 2 e emissions from Poore and Nemecek 8 to every matching food item in the FAO food balance sheets, and where a direct match was not available we applied a weighted average reflecting global annual production rates to the set of food items most closely related to the food in question. While this method provides a best estimate of the emissions associated with the global production of a food item, it does not account for individual farm idiosyncrasies or the relative intensity of one production method over another, which have been shown to impact the estimations of total GHG emissions associated with food items 67 . We performed a sensitivity test to explore the range of uncertainty introduced through this method. We used the fifth and ninety-fifth percentiles in CO 2 e emissions for each food item available in Poore and Nemecek 8 to represent the lower and upper bounds of the uncertainty range, respectively, keeping all other steps in our methodology the same as for the baseline warming scenario using SSP3 population projections. This range in CO 2 e emissions led to projections of the future warming associated with global food consumption ranging from 0.6 ± 0.02 to 2.3 ± 0.1 °C by the end of the century. This upper bound is inconsistent with future projections of global warming levels by the end of the century 1 , reflecting the high upper bound in CO 2 e emissions recorded by Poore and Nemecek 8 . However, the reported confidence intervals are representative of the range of emissions that could occur for a specific food item, and were not designed to represent the range in emissions from that food item in the aggregate globally. This further motivated our choice to use the mean value for each food item’s CO 2 e emissions in our study. Improved documentation of life cycle assessments of more food items on a regional and local scale would help to decrease this source of uncertainty.

Another approximation in our methodology related to the percentage breakdowns in individual GHG emissions (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O) estimated by our literature review. To fill gaps in the literature, we took an average of the individual gas emissions recorded by life cycle assessments associated with the production of each food item. When life cycle assessments for a specific food item listed in the FAO food balance sheets outlining the emissions of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O individually were not available, an average of the GHG emissions for the encompassing food group was applied. We performed another sensitivity test to evaluate this source of uncertainty. Using a bootstrap analysis, we randomly selected one GHG percentage breakdown from each food group (as outlined in Supplementary Table 1 ) and derived the total annual global GHG emissions from food consumption accordingly. We repeated this process 1,000 times and took the fifth and ninety-fifth percentiles in the total annual emissions of each gas to generate confidence intervals. We found that the confidence intervals for each gas were 4,018–6,554 Mt CO 2 , 104–178 Mt CH 4 and 7–13 Mt N 2 O. The upper bounds of these confidence intervals for CH 4 and N 2 O are slightly higher than the ranges published by recent literature, but the CO 2 emissions are in close agreement 2 , 3 , 28 , 29 . Overall, these confidence intervals are much smaller than those associated with the uncertainty discussed above from CO 2 e emissions estimations from Poore and Nemecek 8 (3,046–12,879 Mt CO 2 , 89–480 Mt CH 4 and 6–28 Mt N 2 O).

Finally, the production-stage mitigation potentials for the high-emissions food groups identified in this study are presented as a mean of estimates outlined in a global-scale report from the FAO in 2013 26 . This averaging required to calculate global mitigation potentials does not account for the differences in mitigation options at the individual farm scale, but can be considered a storyline approach to estimating the scale for future warming reductions associated with production-level action.

Data availability

The dietary consumption GHG emissions inventory is included as Supplementary Data 1 . Results from the MAGICC model are available from the corresponding author upon request.

Code availability

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Acknowledgements

C.C.I. was funded by the High Meadows Foundation. We thank E. McLellan, J. Rudek and S. Hamburg for reviewing earlier versions of the manuscript.

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Catherine C. Ivanovich, Tianyi Sun, Doria R. Gordon & Ilissa B. Ocko

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C.C.I. and I.B.O. designed the experiments. C.C.I. and T.S. performed the experiments. C.C.I., I.B.O., T.S. and D.R.G. prepared and edited the manuscript.

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Extended data

Extended data fig. 1 global mean surface air temperature responses to greenhouse gas emissions from future food consumption based on five population projections for rcp4.5 emissions inputs for all other sectors and forcers..

Temperature responses expressed in degrees Celsius. Greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) from food consumption are calculated using the database developed herein and the population projections developed for the following Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as outlined in Riahi et al. 57 : Regional Rivalry, Inequality, Middle of the Road, Fossil-Fueled Development, and Sustainability (corresponding to SSP3, SSP4, SSP2, SSP5, and SSP1, respectively). The future warming associated with consumption from a constant 2020 global population is also provided for reference. RCP4.5 emissions were input for all sectors other than agriculture and all forcers other than carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in order to develop all-forcing baseline simulations from which the isolated food consumption temperature responses were derived. See Fig. 1 for results using RCP8.5 emissions. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals based on 190 ensemble members and lines represent the mean of these ensemble members. Inequality (SSP4) scenario identified by dotted line in order to better visualize overlapping scenarios.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Relative contribution of food groups to future warming from food consumption greenhouse gas emissions measured using annual emitted carbon dioxide equivalence for 20- and 100-year time horizons.

Global warming potentials used for methane and nitrous oxide in the calculation are taken from IPCC AR5 and include climate-carbon feedbacks. Population projection taken from the SSP3 ‘Regional Rivalry’ population growth scenario.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Estimated annual greenhouse gas emissions per capita from present-day food consumption for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) by country.

Emissions measured in kg gas/capita/yr. Countries without data colored in grey.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Estimated total annual greenhouse gas emissions from present-day food consumption for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) by country.

Emissions measured in Tg gas/yr. Food consumption emissions for each greenhouse gas have been summed over the European Union, hatched in black. Countries without data colored in grey.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Change in estimated greenhouse gas emissions per capita from present-day food consumption after applying dietary recommendations mitigation scenario.

Emissions were measured in kg gas/capita/yr. Red (blue) indicates countries which would contribute more (less) greenhouse gas emissions should all people adopt the recommendations from Willet et al. 2017 on consumption of meat, fish, and eggs, and global mean dietary consumption rates across all other food items. Countries without data colored in grey.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information.

Supplementary discussion and Tables 1 and 2.

Supplementary Data 1

Dietary Consumption Emissions Database, containing global- and country-scale data used for analysis.

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Ivanovich, C.C., Sun, T., Gordon, D.R. et al. Future warming from global food consumption. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13 , 297–302 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01605-8

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MILLETS: The Future Food

Millets are a group of small-seeded grains cultivated for thousands of years in many parts of the world. They are a great source of nutrition, high in fibre and rich in vitamins, minerals and proteins. They have gluten-free properties, which makes them ideal for those with celiac disease or other gluten sensitivities. Millets can be cooked whole as porridge or ground into flour to make bread, cakes and pasta.

Millets, being grown in more than 130 countries, have been considered an integral part of the diet of over half a billion people across Asia and Africa for centuries. In India, Millets were among the first crops to be domesticated. In addition to many health benefits, millets are also good for the environment with low water & input requirement. Recognising the enormous potential of Millets to generate livelihoods, increase farmers’ income and ensure food & nutritional security worldwide, the Government of India (GoI) has prioritised Millets. In April 2018, Millets were rebranded as “Nutri Cereals”, followed by the year 2018 being declared as the National Year of Millets, aiming at more extensive promotion and demand generation.

United Nations declared the Year 2023 as the International Year of Millets on 5 th March 2021, on the proposal moved by India and supported by 72 countries. It is essential to give such honour to the traditional wisdom of humanity. These are the first plants to be domesticated for food. On 6th December 2022, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations organised an opening ceremony for the International Year of Millets (IYM) 2023 in Rome, Italy. The Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare has taken a proactive multi-stakeholder engagement approach (engaging all the central government ministries, states/UTs, farmers, start-ups, exporters, retail businesses, hotels, Indian Embassies etc.) to achieve the aim of IYM 2023 and taking Indian millets globally. Ministries, states and Indian embassies have been allocated focused months in 2023 to carry out various activities to promote IYM and increase awareness about the benefits of millet for the Consumer, Cultivator and Climate.

There is evidence of the cultivation of millets in the Korean peninsula around 3500 B.C. In India, millets have been mentioned in Yajurveda Texts. Millet was extensively cultivated till around 50 years back. But due to the Western development model, India has neglected its traditional wisdom. Millets are cited as too primitive and coarse grains. It was looked at only as the food of rural people or ancestors. Besides that,the Green revolution had a negative impact on the production of millet. Before Green Revolution, the millets are 40 percent of total grain production. India produces 170 lakh tons of millet (20 % of the global output). The global average yield is 1,229 kg per hectare, while the average yield of millets in India is 1,239 kg per hectare.

Sustainable Development Goal 2 aims to achieve "zero hunger". It is one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals established by the UN in 2015. The official wording is: "End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.A profound change in the global food and agricultural system is needed to nourish today’s 800 million people. It can be possible by focusing on millet production. Nearly 40 percent of the global land surface is dryland. Millets are the most suitable crop for dryland agriculture.

These Nutri cereals are annual, short-duration (75 to 120 days) rainfed crops that grow well on shallowand low fertile soils with a pH range from acidic to alkaline soil. It has a low water requirement and can be grown even under extremely high temperatures and less rainfall. These are resistant to drought, resistant to most diseases and pests, and need minimum care. These are C4 plants that can convert CO2 into carbohydrates with higher photosynthetic efficiency than C3 plants.Millets are Nutri cereals and climate-resilient crops. It ensures food security, nutritional security, and economicsecurity for people. Milletsare superfoods that are rich in macro and micronutrients. They contain non-starchy polysaccharides, gluten-free proteins, high solublefibre content, high antioxidants, low glycemic index, and are rich in bioactive compounds. It is a good source of beta-carotene and B vitamins.

The term ‘Millet’ originated from the Latin word ‘Milum’ means grain. Millet is a group of cereals that belong to the Poaceae family commonly known as the grass family. There are various types of millet, which differ in their colour, texture, appearance, grain size, and species. On the basis of the size of the grain, these are classified into two types – Large or major millets and Small or minor millets.

Large (Major) Millets: Jowar (Sorghum), Bajra (Pearl Millet), Finger Millet (Ragi). Foxtail Millet (Kagni), and Proso (Cheena)Millet

Small (Minor) Millet: Kodo Millet (Kodra), Barnyard Millet (Sama), Browntop Millet (Hari Kagni), Little Millet (Kutki).

In India, Jowar and Bajra are grown in most states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, except North East states, Himachal Pradeshand Jammu and Kashmir. Both can be grown as Kharif (July -November)and Rabi(October – February) crops. Traditional varieties of these crops are available in India. They exhibit a wide range of variations concerning duration and quality. They can be grown as sole crops, intercrop, and mixed crops. The crop duration varies from 90 -120 days. The mixed cropping of Jowar-Arhar and Jowar with other pulses and even Bajra and other cereals could be done.The crop rotation of mung followed by Jowar improves soil fertility. Bajra can also be grown as a mixed crop.

Finger millet (Ragi) is an important cereal of Karnataka. It grows as summer and Rabi crops in Southern India but mainly as a Kharif crop in Northern India. It can grow in alkaline soil with a pH as high as 11. The duration of the Ragi crop is 135 days. It grows as the sole crop in Southern India and Orissa, as a mixed crop with Jowar, Bajra, Oilseed, and Pulses, and as an off-season crop in rice fallow.Foxtail (Italian) millet can grow under tropical and temperate conditions. It grows throughout the year in Southern India. The duration of the crop is  80-100 days.The Little millet and Barnyard millet are also produced under rainfed conditions. Both can withstand drought and waterlogging conditions.Proso,Kodo, and Browntop millets are highly drought resistant. Browntop has the shortest duration of 70-75 days among all millets.

Millets are also grown in irrigated conditions. One to two ploughing is enough for the cultivation of millets. The seed rate for sowing varies from millet to millet. 3 to 4 rain is sufficient to grow these crops.Thesowing is done through seed drill or dribbling. Nitrogenous fertilisers or phosphatic fertilisers are required in small quantities. There is a minimum or no requirement for pesticides. The panicles contain grains, and the stalk and leaves are utilised as fodder for animals.

Millets and Health

Millets are rich in non-starchy polysaccharides, fibre, and low glycemic index, which controls blood sugar levels, and arethe ideal grain for diabetic patients. The soluble fibre and millet protein help to improve gut health and reduce cholesterol levels. Millets are gluten-free grains, a viable choice for people with celiac disease. Ragi is an excellent source of calcium and is suitable for bone health, blood vessels, muscular contraction, and nerve function. Kodo millet is rich in iron. It purifies the blood, reduces hypertension, and regulates the body's immune system. Foxtail millet keeps neurons (brain cells) healthy. Little millet is good for the thyroid. Because of the goodness of nutrients, these are termed Nutri cereals. These should be part of the daily diet, and each millet should be consumed in a week on a rotational basis. Bajrais best to eat in winter and Jowar in summer.Barnyard millet is usually eaten during religious fasts and is suitable for liver health. Browntop millet has anti-cancerous properties. Kutki, Sama, and Kagni can be substituted for rice. 

These are coarse grains, so prior soaking of 6 to 8 hours before cooking is required. Traditional millet recipes like millet roti and millet khichdi already exist on the regional level. Besides that, many innovative recipes like millet dosa, millet idli, pancakes, millet bread, waffles, crispy crumbs in the salad, and cookies are developing professionally in hotels, bakeries, and also at home. New ideas to improve its palatability and acceptability by all age groups will end the hidden hunger and can fulfill the goal of zero hunger. Millet farming can play a crucial role in sustainable agriculture and make farmers prosperous.

Millets are also an integral part of the G-20 meetings, and delegates will be given an actual millet experience through tasting, meeting farmers and interactive sessions with start-ups and FPOs. The spirit of the whole government approach is indeed seen in the celebration of the International Year of Millets 2023.

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Future of plant-based foods: Whole-cut meats will lead ‘next resurgence of consumers’

17-May-2024 - Last updated on 17-May-2024 at 14:00 GMT

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“If we think about what is going to be the next stage [of plant-based], we are going to see a polarization of people going more ingredients-based and making it at home. And on the other side, we will see the premium products really benefitting from the occasional buyer [who] wants to indulge in it after making the veggie patty at home," Eliyahu said.

Can whole-cut plant-based meats circumvent processing concerns? 

When it comes to the beleaguered plant-based meat category, the market is still “waiting to see who can imitate a whole-cut” in retail at scale, Eliyahu said. The US meat and seafood substitutes market was worth an estimated $1.821bn in 2023 and is expected to be worth $1.9bn by 2028, growing at a 1.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2023 and 2028, according to Euromonitor data. 

“Right now, Chunk has done [whole-cut] very successfully. However, they only go to restaurants. So, in retail, we are still waiting. We are still waiting to see that happen, and whoever will be able to imitate a whole cut of anything in retail up to scale — that is where I think the next resurgence of consumers will be,” she explained.

Despite some consumer concerns about the level of processing in alternative meats, brands can deliver a "natural" experience by ensuring that the product replicates the taste and texture of traditional whole-cut meats, Eliyahu noted. 

“The moment you are able to imitate a whole cut regardless of the processing, it will have a natural halo just because of the texture of it and the shape of it. So, even if it was made in a lab — even in several stages of processing — consumers in their minds are going to denote this as something natural. And I think that is why a lot of companies are aiming for that whole-cut feel because the more … you feel it as such, you are not going to associate it with a highly processed food," she explained.

Plant-based DIY: Consumers want benefits, not costs

The plant-based beverage category is seeing a “resurgence of soy milk this year” as consumers start to incorporate it in more recipes, Eliyahu explained. 

The US plant-based dairy market — which includes milks, yogurts and cheeses — was worth approximately $4.4bn in 2023 and is expected to grow to $10bn in 2028, growing by a 17.4% CAGR, according to Euromonitor data.

Similarly, plant-based products, like Just Egg, that can be incorporated easily into recipes are finding market success, she added. Recently, Just Egg expanded its portfolio product with breakfast burritos,  after bringing back its condiment line ​. 

“One of the reasons that Just Egg is doing so well is because it is an ingredient for baking as well, and so that is what we are going to see in the next generation,” Eliyahu said.

Also, consumers are becoming thriftier with their grocery budgets and making meals with canned beans and lentils to gain the health benefits of plant-based proteins without spending as much, she explained.  

“If you look at processed and canned vegetables — and that Euromonitor also includes beans and lentils — those are growing. And they are growing because people .... [are replacing] meat with the ingredients that we use for the mock meat. So, instead of going and buying the burgers ... they are using the beans to create a burger at home," Eliyahu said.

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Dual Harvest: Agrivoltaics Boosts Food and Energy Production in Asia

• agriculture
• renewable energy
• Clean Energy

Every autumn morning at an aquaculture site near the mouth of the Yellow River in China's Dongying City, Shandong Province, farmers begin packaging shrimp for their customers. Their harvest is increasingly more bountiful thanks to an innovative way of farming that integrates renewable energy into agriculture. 

Here, solar photovoltaic (PV) panels were installed several meters above the water, helping to generate an annual 260 gigawatts-hours of energy — enough to power 113,000 households in China. Since its completion and grid connection in 2021, the farmers have also gained many benefits.

Beyond providing clean energy to the fishery, the solar panels keep water temperatures consistently 2 to 3 degrees C (3.6 to 5.4 degrees F) cooler than outdoor ponds without panels, boosting shrimp and sea cucumber yields by 50%. The solar power company that installed the panels leases the space, helping to reduce farming costs while also paying for improvements and modernization to aquaculture site, such as better pond embankments and irrigation systems. 

These developments are crucial for the future growth of the fishery industry in Shandong Province. In 2019, the total economic output of the fishery sector of Shandong Province reached $62.3 billion, representing 15.6% of China’s total fishery output.

Agrivoltaics Boosts Clean Energy and Food Production

The concept of aquaculture-photovoltaic integration is a form of what’s known as agrivoltaics , which typically integrates traditional agricultural practices such as crop cultivation, livestock farming and fisheries with solar PV installations, maximizing the use of available space. This dual-layered system supports the normal production of both food and electricity, thereby allowing income to stream in from both sources.

In a world where global energy demand is soaring and the use of agricultural land for food production is increasingly displaced by renewable energy projects (such as for solar and wind farms, or growing crops such as corn and soy for biofuels), agrivoltaics has emerged as a win-win solution for sustainable energy and agriculture.  

This concept has already been applied throughout the world, including Europe, the United States and parts of Asia.

China’s pioneering efforts since 2011 with more than 500 agrivoltaics projects — including crop cultivation, livestock grazing, aquafarming, greenhouses and tea plantations — according to a forthcoming WRI report, provide significant insights for further expansion across the region. 

For example, countries like Indonesia and the Philippines in Southeast Asia could potentially benefit from agrivoltaics but have yet to implement many significant projects. The region's abundant sunlight and vast agricultural landscapes can harness solar energy while maintaining crop production. There’s also an outsized need in the region to balance its land resources for both clean energy and food production in the face of a growing population and urgency to reduce emissions. 

The Symbiotic Benefits for Food and Energy Production

In the land-scarce central and eastern regions of China, agrivoltaics emerged after government policies encouraged the development of PV projects, but the same land was needed for food production. So, companies integrated these projects together.

People soon realized that the solar panels could do more than just produce electricity. The panels can offer plants and animals protection from extreme heat and drought by providing partial shade. Studies also indicate agrivoltaics can reduce water evaporation by 30%. Accompanying upgrades to agricultural infrastructure, which can often contribute to the automation and mechanization of the farm, may also help to increase crop yields, especially in areas with excessive sunlight and high temperatures.

The benefits extend to the solar panels as well. Studies show that solar panels mounted over vegetation exhibit considerably lower surface temperatures than those mounted over bare ground. This cooling effect has a direct impact on the solar panels’ efficiency, as modules typically experience efficiency losses ranging from 0.1% to 0.5% for every degree Celsius increase above 25 degrees C (77 degrees F). 

Agrivoltaics can also offer farmers an additional income stream either by leasing the land to solar PV companies or, if the land-agreement is reversed, through cultivating the land at much lower costs, mitigating the impact of fluctuating crop yields and market prices. For example, these leasing agreements provide farmers with a consistent and foreseeable income from the land and obviate the need for farmers to fund the solar installations themselves.

Beyond economic benefits, agrivoltaics can enhance energy independence and reliability. Agrivoltaic systems contribute to decentralized renewable energy generation, which reduces reliance on centralized power grids, especially in rural communities. The development and maintenance of agrivoltaics systems also creates employment opportunities in rural areas — stimulating the local economy and fostering sustainable livelihoods. Furthermore, the co-location of solar panels with agricultural activities optimizes land usage, promoting efficient utilization of renewable energy resources and minimizing land-use conflicts, which have historically taken place after farmland was diverted for renewable energy projects.

Lessons from China’s Agrivoltaics Projects

Examples of agrivoltaics, like a greenhouse project in Hainan and a livestock grazing project in Inner Mongolia, are among the many projects in China that offer invaluable lessons for Southeast Asia and other regions seeking to harness the potential of agrivoltaics. 

Hainan’s Photovoltaic Greenhouses 

In Hainan, China, photovoltaic greenhouses combine solar panels with farming, enhancing crop growth and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by providing clean electricity to power grids. The solar companies lease land for solar PV project development and simultaneously provide it at no cost to agricultural companies for vegetable cultivation. This approach not only conserves land-leasing expenses, but also ensures year-round production, unaffected by adverse weather, such as typhoons and rainstorms. Current PV greenhouse projects with a total capacity of 2 GW in Hainan are capable of supplying leafy vegetables to around 3 million people, covering about 30% of the province's population, throughout the year. 

Inner Mongolia’s Photovoltaic Livestock Grazing Projects

Inner Mongolia's 1 MW photovoltaic livestock grazing project was established through government grants and private herder investments, pioneering a blend of renewable energy and traditional pastoral practices. This 1 MW solar PV power station, with land leased to a livestock company, generates revenue from electricity sales to the grid, which is distributed as dividends to herders based on their ownership stakes. The annual return rate to herders is 20%, while the rest of the revenue is used for the local community’s infrastructure development.

This successful pilot project has encouraged more herder involvement in PV grazing projects in one of the sunniest regions in China. The grassland area of Inner Mongolia reaches 48.7 million hectares ( 730 million Chinese mu ), accounting for 41% of the total land area in the region and about a fifth of China’s pasture area . Its annual solar radiation is 2,164 kilowatt-hours per square meter, according to the Global Solar Atlas and local government leaders. This makes Inner Mongolia one of the most valuable solar energy regions in China.

Potential for Expanding Agrivoltaics in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia presents a rich tapestry of opportunities for implementing agrivoltaic projects as well as some challenges. The installed solar capacity in Southeast Asia has already been growing consistently. For instance, in 2023, the solar market in Southeast Asia expanded by 17% compared to 2022, with 3 GW of new installations. This is complemented by a strong pipeline of projects that could significantly enhance the region's solar capacity, indicating a robust future for solar energy development.

However, the successful implementation of agrivoltaic systems in Southeast Asia faces several challenges. Progress in the region is hindered by the convoluted policy framework and the need for strategic land-use planning. In addition, countries like Philippines and Indonesia, which are archipelagic countries, require technology and policies specific to the local politics, the pivotal role of village cooperatives and landscape. 

Some measures to address these challenges could include:

• Policy Alignment:  A unified policy framework, like what’s observed in France and other countries, could help streamline permit processes and recognize the multifaceted value of agrivoltaics.
• Local Government Engagement: The active involvement of local governments is crucial for the successful rollout of agrivoltaic projects. Drawing upon the experiences of countries like China, where local government leadership has been instrumental in agrivoltaics success, the Philippines and Indonesia can foster partnerships and alignment between urban developers and local leaders. These partnerships could help catalyze the growth and acceptance of agrivoltaics at the grassroots level, ensuring that projects align with local needs and priorities.
• Strategic Land Use and Capability Development: Given the relationship between agriculture and solar energy in agrivoltaics, specialized research for each region is essential to gauge the optimal configurations between varied crops and solar installations. Moreover, a detailed case-by-case basis strategy, tailored to the specific conditions and objectives of a country and its investors, is crucial for the successful and sustainable deployment of these systems.
• Community Cooperation and Ownership:  Building upon the Indonesian model of village cooperatives, early and consistent engagement with local communities, coupled with a keen understanding of their needs and aspirations, can foster trust and a collaborative spirit. By intertwining the project's goals with community aspirations, stakeholders can effectively navigate challenges and uncertainties, ensuring that agrivoltaics bring shared benefits to all parties involved. Community ownership and engagement are paramount.
• Capacity Building and Technical Support: Empowering local stakeholders with the necessary technical knowledge is also important for the long-term sustainability of agrivoltaic systems. Addressing the technical support challenges, especially in far-flung areas, is vital. Establishing regional technology hubs or partnering with educational institutions could help. Such collaborations could not only reduce technical response times, but also elevate the broader understanding of distributed technologies in these regions.

 Achieving a Bright Future for Agrivoltaics in Asia

Agrivoltaics offers a promising solution to the complex task of harmonizing energy production and agriculture. By drawing inspiration from China's experiences and customizing strategies to the local context, this approach could help drive economic growth, promote sustainable energy and deliver environmental benefits.

Realizing the full potential of agrivoltaics will require collaboration, policy alignment and capacity building. But if successful, agrivoltaics can help pave the way to a more sustainable and prosperous future.

Chen Jing, a postdoctoral researcher at Tsinghua University's School of Social Sciences in the Energy Transition and Social Development Research Center, contributed to this article.

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Envision a world where everyone can enjoy clean air, walkable cities, vibrant landscapes, nutritious food and affordable energy.

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply-demand gap?

Affiliations.

• 1 Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
• 2 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
• 3 Nutrition & Planetary Health Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
• 4 Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
• 5 International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Dakar, Senegal.
• 6 Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin.
• PMID: 38770159
• PMCID: PMC11102352
• DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1

With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply-demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia's food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Crop productivity; Diets; Food imports; Food security; Food system model.

© The Author(s) 2024.

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Prosecutors in Feeding Our Future trial rest their case this week after calling more than 30 witnesses in ‘brazen’ fraud scheme

Did six Twin Cities men and a woman brazenly steal money from programs feeding kids in need, as prosecutors allege, or were they operating growing businesses with informal bookkeeping, as their attorneys claim?

Those are the conflicting arguments jurors have heard over a month of testimony in the Feeding Our Future trial. In the last four weeks, federal prosecutors have displayed hundreds of pages of financial records and child nutrition program forms, aiming to show that the seven defendants tied to a Shakopee restaurant defrauded the government of millions of dollars by creating shell companies, rosters of fake children's names and inflated meal claims.

This week, prosecutors will rest their case and defense attorneys will start calling witnesses who received the meals and their own experts — including a former IRS agent, a former FBI forensic accountant and a University of Minnesota professor — to make the case that their clients provided real food to real children across Minnesota. They plan to show jurors reams of paperwork, as well as photos of pallets of food and videos of meal distributions.

The high-profile trial — the first in a broader fraud investigation that's led to charges against 70 people — has revealed new details in what prosecutors say is one of the largest pandemic-related fraud cases in the country, totaling more than $250 million.

Prosecutors have called more than 30 witnesses, ranging from FBI and IRS agents and accountants who investigated the allegations, to bankers and meal program experts , witnesses from across Minnesota who saw few to no meals distributed , and a former Feeding Our Future employee who testified about a "booming" fraud scheme known for rampant kickbacks and bribes .

Prosecutors showed the jury hundreds of pages of checks and bank records, meal program forms and dozens of emails and text messages between the defendants , aiming to prove that defendants submitted phony or duplicate food invoices, rosters of made-up names and payments disguised as "consulting" fees.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reimburses schools, day cares and nonprofits for feeding low-income children after school and during the summer. Instead, prosecutors said, defendants used the meal programs as "their own endless ATM," spending the money on lavish expenses, including a $1 million lakefront Prior Lake property, luxury cars and an $11,000 vacation to a Maldives ocean villa.

Last week, two FBI forensic accountants testified for four days about their extensive work tracing a complicated paper trail of 300 bank accounts and other records, revealing that about $3 million out of $30 million sent to the restaurant at the center of the case — Empire Cuisine and Market — went to food purchases. Some of it supplied the restaurant with food to sell rather than free meals for kids, FBI accountant Pauline Roase testified.

On Friday, FBI accountant Lacra Blackwell testified she traced $41 million in federal money received by defendants back to $8 million in real estate, new cars, Timberwolves tickets and other purchases, mostly derived from federal funds.

Defense attorneys countered in their cross examination of Roase that bank records also prove their clients spent money on costs associated with running growing businesses, including payroll for employees, transportation of meals and warehouse rentals. They will cross-examine Blackwell on Tuesday.

The defendants — Said Shafii Farah, Abdiaziz Shafii Farah, Mohamed Jama Ismail, Abdimajid Mohamed Nur, Abdiwahab Maalim Aftin, Mukhtar Mohamed Shariff and Hayat Mohamed Nur — were charged in 2022 with 43 counts, including wire fraud and money laundering. They received more than $40 million for claiming to serve 18 million meals at 50 food sites from Rochester to St. Cloud.

Since the trial started on April 22, the seven defense teams have argued in opening statements and cross examinations that the government's case involves "sweeping conspiracy allegations" based on speculation and suspicion. They've reiterated that their clients served food and earned a fair profit .

"He worked very hard to follow the contracts and he took enormous financial risks to be part of the food program," defense attorney Andrew Birrell said in his opening statements about his client, Abdiaziz Farah of Savage, who started Empire Cuisine.

Defense attorneys have shown witnesses photos of bags of groceries that defendants gave out, stocked with cereal, juice, potatoes and other produce matching food invoices. They also displayed photos of people lined up outside a Minneapolis event venue to get food.

They've sought to cast doubt on the thoroughness of the FBI investigation , blasting investigators for not visiting food sites to verify if meals were in fact served.

Defense attorneys also have questioned some witnesses about how they were just contacted by prosecutors before the trial started and asked to recall details from two to three years ago. They've sought to discredit the former employee who testified because he could get a shorter prison sentence for cooperating with authorities, and questioned other witnesses' lack of knowledge about the meal programs.

Defense attorneys have also scrutinized state leaders and investigators about their lack of knowledge of East African business culture since the defendants immigrated to the United States. Attorney Andrew Mohring, who represents Shariff, asked Roase last week if she was aware East African cultures have informal transactions based on trust and tribal affiliations.

"Sometimes things aren't written down," Steve Schleicher, who represents Farah's brother, vendor Said Farah, added in his questioning of her Friday.

Roase agreed.

So the financial data may only tell a portion of the story? he asked.

"It may not tell the whole picture, but it tells a lot," Roase answered.

Growing food programs

The defendants' food sites were largely overseen by St. Paul nonprofit Partners in Nutrition (also known as Partners in Quality Care), as well as St. Anthony nonprofit Feeding Our Future, which is at the center of the case .

Some defense attorneys have sought to distance their clients from the allegations. They've shifted blame to the two women who led Partners in Nutrition and Feeding Our Future, and the Minnesota Department of Education, which administers the funding. If the Education Department or USDA had concerns, why didn't they claw back funds or stop approving reimbursements, defense attorneys have repeatedly asked witnesses.

The Education Department was entangled in lawsuits for years with Partners in Nutrition and Feeding Our Future. In early 2020, the department had concerns about "unexplained growth" in reimbursements.

Feeding Our Future sued the agency in 2020 for not approving meal sites. In 2021, the Education Department stopped its payments, but a Ramsey County judge said he saw no regulations giving the state the authority to do so at that point. The Education Department restarted payments and alerted the FBI about its concerns.

Another central issue in the trial: USDA waivers that relaxed oversight and rules in the pandemic to quickly get food to children when schools shuttered. Investigators argued the waivers made the programs vulnerable to abuse, such as fewer monitoring visits to make sure programs were operating properly.

Defense attorneys countered that those relaxed rules allowed defendants' for-profit restaurants to temporarily participate in the programs and dole out seven days' worth of groceries at once, instead of the usual hot meals served in person that rapidly increased the number of meals their clients served. They added that defendants didn't need to check IDs and used a clicker to count the number of people who picked up meals.

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