vancouver earthquake case study

The Science Creative Quarterly

The big one: understanding why the big earthquake is predicted for vancouver.

by katepotter

This morning, the front page of the national newspaper reads “BC put on alert for huge quake.” Yet again . So do I hop on a plane to Calgary or continue obliviously sipping my coffee? The reality of an eventual massive earthquake on the British Columbian coast is a given. As my mom, discontent with raging snowstorms and -30 o C temperatures, declares, “there are consequences to living in paradise.” Earth-shattering consequences. But do we understand the nature and the true extent of these consequences?

To understand why Vancouver is at such a high risk for earthquakes relative to Calgary or Toronto, one must consider the geology of where it is on the Earth’s surface and of what lies near and beneath it. At a quick glance at a world map, Vancouver is a coastal city located on the western margin of the North American continent. Stare at the map a little longer and you might see how Alfred Wegener came up with the Theory of Plate Tectonics , in 1915. He proposed that all the continents once fit together like puzzle pieces creating a supercontinent which he named Pangaea (Figure 1; 1).

Wegener argued that Europe and North America were juxtaposed so that the Caledonian Mountains in Scotland and Ireland were continuous with a similar mountain range in Newfoundland. He also showed that the Amorican mountain range of Europe also matched up with the Appalachian range of New England, USA (2). A third geologic belt composed of similar rocks of comparable ages was later shown to have been continuous throughout South America, South Africa, India and Australia (3). In addition to similar mountain ranges and rock types, fossil deposits derived from plant and animal material were also similar between regions Wegener proposed to have once been side by side in the Pangaean supercontinent. The splitting of Pangaea into fragments resembling current continental masses occurred in several steps, between 250 to 35 million years ago (4). To understand the breakup of Pangaea and the movement of its fragments over geologic time one must understand the composition of the layers of the earth.

The Earth is composed of a core, a mantle, and a crust. Each of these layers can be further subdivided: the core into the inner and outer cores, the inner and outer (upper) mantles, and the oceanic and continental crust (Figure 2; 1).

The core and inner mantle are molten. The outer mantle is solid, as is the crust , which sits atop of the mantle. Together the crust and mantle form the lithosphere, an assembly of fifteen fragments, or plates, of variable size (Figure 3; 5).

A particular plate may have a crustal layer composed of only a few kilometers of dense basaltic oceanic crust (6). Alternately, it may consist of continental crust with an underlying thin layer of oceanic crust. Continental crust is made of less dense rocks of granitic composition and is much thicker, averaging 35 km in thickness (6). Beneath the lithosphere is the hotter part of the mantle, known as the asthenosphere. Overlying solid lithospheric plates move on the molten asthenosphere. This motion can be compared to the flow of solid ice cubes in liquid water. The relative motion of the lithospheric plates is known as plate tectonics .

Interactions between tectonic plates cause stress to build up and the development of earthquakes. The friction generated from interaction between adjacent tectonic plate margins creates stress, a form of potential energy, which can ultimately lead to strain or deformation of the crust the principal cause of earthquakes. Three conditions may generate stress at plate boundaries (6). Plates may simply generate friction at a common parallel boundary as they slide past each other (Figure 4).

This is known as motion along a transform fault . Stress may also be generated as new crust is formed on the ocean floor at a divergent zone (Figure 5).

A divergent zone occurs where a volcanic ridge occurs at a boundary between two plates. There is high volcanic activity along these ridges, resulting in flow of basaltic lava from the mantle to the crust (7). New oceanic crust is created as lava solidifies at the surface, forcing plates apart. Stress results from the heat and kinetic energy of the molten rock rising from the asthenosphere and from the addition of new crustal material which forces plates to diverge. A third way in which stress may be generated is at the convergent boundary between a dense oceanic plate and a less dense continental plate (Figure 6; 4).

Interaction between these two plates forces the denser oceanic plate to subduct below the continental plate. The tip of the dense oceanic plate forced beneath the continental plate is slowly forced downward into the hot asthenosphere, where it becomes plastic and eventually melts. This compensates for the formation of new crust at ocean ridges and keeps the surface of the earth at a constant area. When one plate subducts below another at a convergent plate boundary, stress builds up in the brittle upper 10 km of crust (8). The stress that builds up in any of these three plate boundary interactions accumulates over a long time interval, over hundreds or millions of years. The hot lower crust is too weak to store stress (7). When stress in the upper crust reaches a critical threshold, the crust snaps and strain is converted into vibrating shock waves (5). This translates into what we feel as the earth shaking (6).

The lithospheric geography of the British Columbian coast is complex. While along the Californian coast, the North American continental plate has a single boundary with the Pacific plate (Figure 7), further north three small plates lie between these two major plates (Figure 8a; 7). These plates originate from a single oceanic plate, the Farallon plate, which also lay between the North American continental plate and the Pacific plate (9). Of the three smaller plates that now exist, the Juan de Fuca plate is the largest. It is roughly the size of Oregon and Washington states combined (7). The other plates are the Explorer Plate, to the north, and the Gorda Plate, to the south (Figure 8.). Each of these plates is subducted below the less dense, North American plate and is descending below the continental plate at a rate of 45 mm/year (5, 10). Subduction occurs along the Cascadia fault, also named the Cascadia subduction zone (Figure 8a, b). This is the second largest, tectonically active fault system in North America, extending 1200 km from northern California to Vancouver Island (10).

The Pacific Northwest is predisposed to earthquakes because of plate boundaries in the region. It is more complicated and even more predisposed to earthquakes as it has transform, divergent, and convergent zones. Most coastal regions predisposed to earthquakes have only a type of zone, such as along the southern Californian coast (Figure 7). The simplest plate boundary in the Pacific Northwest is a convergence zone called the Cascadia subduction zone (Figure 8.). This zone has ruptured several times over history, causing great earthquakes similar to the Japanese Nankai Trough and the southern Chilean subduction zone earthquakes that have upward of 8 on the Richter scale (13, 14). Much of the force that leads oceanic plates to subduct beneath the North American plate is generated by a ridge system, or divergent zone. The largest ridge in the Vancouver region is the Juan de Fuca ridge, located between the Mid-Pacific Rise and Juan de Fuca fault (Figure 9). The other two ridges are the Gorda and Explorer ridges (Figure 9; 11).

These volcanic ridges add new crust to the Pacific plate to the west and to the triplet of Juan de Fuca plates to the east. Consequently, these plates are spreading apart at a rate of 60 mm/year (7). As new crust is created, old crust is pushed along the Cascadia subduction zone to return to the asthenosphere (Figure 8b). In addition to convergent and divergent zones, the Pacific Northwest also has many transform faults between the Pacific plate and the triplet of Juan de Fuca plates. These are the Sovanco, Blanco, Nootka, and Mendocino faults (Figure 10; 7).

Along these faults, the Pacific plate grinds against the Explorer, Juan de Fuca and Gorda plates as it is pushed northwest. The greatest force pushing the Pacific plate in this direction is crustal formation at the Mid-Pacific Rise in the Pacific Ocean. The movement of the Pacific plate has been confirmed by mapping the two-dimensional pattern of changes in sea-level at tidal stations over years (9). Grinding of this plate as it moves along the aforementioned faults generates stress. Plate interaction along any of these convergent, divergent, or transform faults may cause the buildup of stress which may potentially lead to an earthquake.

A major earthquake affecting Vancouver Island and Vancouver would most likely be produced by stress and strain generated at a transform fault or along a subduction zone . The magnitude and intensity of earthquakes produced by diverging plates are low. Tremors would not be felt unless one were on the ocean floor it is only known that they occur by measuring seismic activity (15). Both transform faults and subduction zones can cause very violent earthquakes measuring up to 9 on the Richter scale (7, 13). Most of these earthquakes have a shallow epicenter with a focal depth of less than 70 km (1). Earthquakes occurring close to the earth’s surface are typically the most destructive. Many historical earthquakes in the region have been along the Cascadia subduction zone (16).The Alaskan earthquake of March 27, 1964, the second largest of the twentieth century, was one such earthquake and triggered tsunamis that killed 130 people, some as far away as California and Hawaii. High magnitude earthquakes historically occurring in the vicinity of Vancouver and Vancouver island are listed in Table 1. While any major earthquake predicted to occur in southwestern British Columbia would most likely result from convergent activity along the Cascadia subduction zone, activity along transform faults could also trigger violent, damaging earthquakes as activity generated from tectonic movements along fault lines can cause high magnitude initial shock waves and many aftershocks (12).

Physical Consequences of an earthquake In the event that the predicted great earthquake did occur, its after-effects might cause greater and more widespread damage than the earthquake itself. Aftershocks commonly occur, 36% within the first month following an earthquake. An aftershock is a smaller wave than the initial shaking in an earthquake; aftershocks further destabilize buildings, pipelines, and other structures damaged by the first wave. Damage to underground fuel lines, gas connection points, and facilities in which toxic and combustible materials are stored can start fires. Historically, many earthquakes have caused fires, such as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake (5). Tsunamis and flooding are other important consequences of earthquakes which occur along subduction zones between continental and oceanic plates. Tsunami is a Japanese word meaning “harbor wave.” These waves can be up to 10 metres high, traveling at velocities upward of 1000 km/h and may occur in a series of repetitive waves that may last up to 12 hours (5). To understand how tsunamis are generated, it is important to understand that strain accumulating along a fault causes the coastline to rise. When an earthquake results, the uplifted coastline falls and the offshore region is lifted up (Figure 11; 17).

This motion displaces the overlying water, leading to the creation of tsunamis. It can be assumed the Cascadia subduction zone has been responsible for significant earthquakes in the past because of dating of rapidly buried soils and the sand sheets left by tsunamis on top of these soils (18). Low-lying land masses are at highest risk for extensive flooding in the event of a tsunami. Damage to coastal British Columbia would be great. A final concerning consequence of a major earthquake is that of landslides. Although surface soil is mainly made of compact layers of silt or clay, the less compact layer below is composed of sand and highly susceptible to liquefaction. Sandy soils that are water-saturated can behave more like a liquid than a solid during an earthquake (7). Movement of the more solid surface layer over liquefied sand can destabilize building foundations and damage bridges, roads, and pipelines. In the Greater Vancouver Area, areas made of lowlands sediment such as Richmond and Delta, are most susceptible to landslides and liquefaction (Figure 12;19).

Medical and Human consequences of an earthquake Beyond physical damage, earthquakes wreak havoc on human health. Crush injuries, resulting from compression of the trunk and the extremities, affect between 2 and 15% of the population in urban centers affected by earthquakes (5). Muscle trauma from the crush injury, defined medically as rhabdomyolysis, causes the release of muscle cell components and electrolytes into the bloodstream. As a result, blood pH and potassium concentrations rise. This leads to organ damage, particularly to the heart and kidneys, in addition to skin and soft tissue injury and physical trauma to the chest and extremities resulting from the impact (5). Fires induced by earthquakes substantially increase human morbidity and mortality beyond that attributed to the earthquake itself (5). There may be many burn victims from the aftereffects of an earthquake. In the event of a tsunami, patients may need to be treated for asphyxiation from near-drowning, for acute respiratory distress syndrome, aspiration pneumonia, and for extremity fractures, lacerations, and sprains (20, 21). A final worry in medical treatment following an earthquake is that of infection, particularly of soft tissue injuries. A soil fungus called coccidiodomycosis is a common infective agent and contaminated water following a tsunami may spread leptospirosis and Vibrio vulnificus (21).

Vancouver and Vancouver island lie within an area of complex geology that predisposes this coastal region to high magnitude earthquakes. The last great earthquake that caused massive destruction occurred in this area in 1700, reaching 9 on the Richter scale, and was caused by movement along the Cascadia subduction zone. Urban legend has it that major earthquakes occur in the region every few hundred years and that we are long-overdue for a quake. The Geological Survey of Canada has stations continually measuring seismic activity, with the intent of detecting the precise location and magnitude of occurring earthquakes and of predicting when and where in the near future an earthquake is likely to occur. Unfortunately, this proves about as accurate as predicting the weather in Vancouver and people quickly become immune to earthquake predictions. It is important to remember that while earthquake forecasts are merely predictions and while it would become rather costly to fly out of town at every predicted threat, the Pacific Northwest is among the regions of the world with the highest susceptibility to large magnitude earthquakes. While we cannot prevent an earthquake from happening and cannot predict where we will be when it occurs, the best strategies are to push for buildings engineered to withstand moderate earthquakes, to be aware of earthquake preparedness and disaster protocols, and to have adequate supplies and nourishment in the event of a natural disaster striking.

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7) Yeats RS. Living with Earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest. Oregon State University Press, 1998.

8) Carlson JM, Langer JS and Shaw BE. 1994. Reviews of Modern Physics. 66(2): 657-670.

9) Rogers G.C. 1988. Nature. 332: 17.

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12) Sibson RH. Continental fault structure and the shallow earthquake source. In Holdsworth RE and Turner JP. Extensional tectonics: faulting and related processes. The Geological Society, 2002, pp. 107-133.

13) Miller MM, Melbourne T, Johnson DJ and Sumner WQ. 2002. Science. 295: 2423.

14) Nelson AR, Kelsey HM and Witter RC. 2006. Quaternary Research. 65(3): 354-365.

15) Bird P, Kagan YY and Jackson DD. Plate tectonics and earthquake potential of spreading ridges and oceanic transform faults. In Stein S and Freymueller. Plate Boundary Zones, Geodynamics Series, 30, 203-218. American Geophysical Union, Washington DC.

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Effects of urban development on future multi-hazard risk: the case of Vancouver, Canada

• Original Paper
• Published: 11 October 2018
• Volume 98 , pages 251–265, ( 2019 )

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• Stephanie E. Chang   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9383-7464 1 , 2 ,
• Jackie Z. K. Yip 2 &
• Wendy Tse 1  

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Disaster risk reduction should anticipate how future natural hazard risk would be influenced by changes in urban vulnerability. This paper investigates the effect of one key driver of change, urban development. It models current and future risk for the year 2041 in a rapidly growing urban area, Vancouver, Canada, from both earthquake and coastal flood hazard. Three urban development futures are considered—status quo, compact, and sprawled development—that differ in the housing stock configuration used to accommodate an identical, projected increase in population and dwellings. Results indicate that while exposure is expected to increase substantially in future, the implications for risk vary greatly between hazards and impact types. For earthquake, population increase is attenuated by improvements in the building stock, whereas for flooding, disaster impacts increase at a much higher rate than population growth. Overall, disruption impacts are more sensitive than damage to changes in population and development. The effect of urban development on future risk is not unidirectional, but depends upon hazard type, impact type, and degree of climate change. None of the development futures is consistently best from a risk perspective, but along many dimensions, compact development yields more severe disaster impacts relative to status quo development. The findings underscore the importance of considering natural hazard risk in urban development planning, and of recognizing the inherent differences between hazards and impact types in this planning.

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This study was supported in part by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) and the Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) Network of Centres of Excellence. PICS and MEOPAR had no role in the design, conduct, or reporting of the research.

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Chang, S.E., Yip, J.Z.K. & Tse, W. Effects of urban development on future multi-hazard risk: the case of Vancouver, Canada. Nat Hazards 98 , 251–265 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3510-x

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Accessibility of Metro Vancouver fire-fighters following a damaging earthquake: A case study

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This case study focuses on the ability of Metro Vancouver's fire personnel to access their regular workplace and home location immediately following, and in the hours and days after a major earthquake. In the event of such an incident, transportation infrastructure will be disrupted, limiting accessibility in the region. By examining the travel routes required by fire personnel, emergency planning can address any anomalies or identified gaps in service needs. This case study provides information to guide the development of regional policies and coordinated efforts to ensure that available fire personnel resources are deployed in the most beneficial and effective way. Other first-responder and receiver agencies should consider conducting similar evaluations as the findings and recommendations presented here generalise to other disasters where staff resources will be limited. Further research is recommended to determine resource needs in the event of a major disaster. Once a better picture of the total resource needs is known, a gap analysis can be conducted to identify what resources are available and accessible from within Metro Vancouver and what resources would need to come from outside the region.

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The purpose of this study is to critically examine whether hospitals located in high seismic risk areas such as Vancouver can respond as post-disaster facilities in the aftermath of a major earthquake. Earthquake experience in California during the 1971 San Fernando and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes in particular demonstrate that hospitals may be vulnerable and rendered unable to fully respond to their communities needs. In the case of earthquakes, risk management methods are limited to two strategies: pre-event mitigation to reduce the effects of the earthquake on life safety and loss of property; and providing recovery services after the event. In the case of post-disaster hospitals, experience shows that mitigation strategies ensure the functionality of the facility. Therefore, mitigation strategies must not only include structural mitigation to protect the life safety of its occupants, they must also include strategies which ensure the functionality of both the building operations as well as that of therapeutic and diagnostic medical equipment in the aftermath of an earthquake. Vancouver General Hospital is used as a case study to critically examine seismic pre-event mitigation strategies which include: the structures; building operation and medical equipment which are dependent on the supply of potable water and power. Findings of this study indicate that the current supply of potable water is not reliable and that some of VGH's essential building operations and medical equipment will not be functional due to losses in water pressures and disruptions in service. This study recommends that VGH should consider mitigation strategies which make the hospital independent of outside sources of both water and power supply in order to meet its emergency role as a post-disaster facility following an earthquake. The functionality of VGH in the aftermath of a major earthquake will be seriously curtailed unless there is adequate storage of potable water on site to meet the emergency needs of this hospital.

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How Metro Vancouver is earthquake-proofing its water reservoirs in preparation for the 'Big One'

Reservoirs are being steadily upgraded in case of a major earthquake.

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Nearly six metres below a South Delta residential area, workers are making upgrades to a water storage reservoir that holds millions of litres of drinking water.

Work at the Pebble Hill reservoir began in the fall of 2021 to prepare for natural disasters in the future.

Metro Vancouver has been steadily upgrading its reservoirs since the '90s to ensure it can provide water to the region following the "Big One" — a megathrust earthquake expected to hit the B.C. coast someday.

They were built at different times, and four, built before the 1990s when seismic codes were less stringent, still need upgrading: Sasamat, Greenwood, Maple Ridge and Glenmore reservoirs.

"We know that this is a seismically vulnerable area," said Marilyn Towill, Metro Vancouver's general manager for water services.

"And we know that large earthquakes happen periodically, not centuries in between."

Seismic upgrades to the Pebble Hill reservoir in Delta, contained in a cement building underground, include strengthening the roof, thickening the perimeter and central walls and installing a steel frame.

Why is a major quake expected in B.C.?

The South Coast of B.C. is situated in what's known as the Cascadia subduction zone, where two great tectonic plates are colliding.

The zone is centred on a 1,000-kilometre fault line that runs from northern Vancouver Island to northern California. The fault itself is the boundary between the Juan de Fuca ocean plate, which is moving toward and being shoved under the North American plate on which we live.

As the Juan de Fuca Plate drifts eastward, it cools, becomes denser and eventually dives under the less-dense North American plate. 

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A section of the boundary at the Cascadia Trench can periodically become locked — and with the plates no longer sliding smoothly, the energy from the forward momentum gets stored inside the rocks, waiting for the day when it will be released as a catastrophic megathrust earthquake with magnitudes up to 9.0 or higher.

The Cascadia subduction zone experiences these "megathrust" earthquakes anywhere from every 200 to 800 years, according to scientists. The last one occurred in 1700, which means the next one could occur in another 500 years ... or next week.

Preparation is key, and water is important.

Metro Vancouver says it upgrades its reservoirs in the winter when there's lower demand for water. There are about 26 reservoirs throughout the Lower Mainland. 

"Each one would have to be assessed individually to determine their remaining lifespan, and that's what we do with every upgrade project. We see what components need work just to extend their life," said Matthew Dybwad, senior lead engineer for Metro Vancouver.

New reservoirs are typically designed for a lifespan of 75 to 100 years, he said.

WATCH | Our reporter tours the upgrades at the Pebble Hill reservoir in Delta: 

Metro Vancouver earthquake-proofing water reservoirs

Old infrastructure vulnerable.

Metro Vancouver says it has conducted several studies about the impacts of a major earthquake. 

"What we're planning for is to meet the building codes. Any of our new infrastructure is built to meet the current building codes that are in place, so what we're looking at is the older infrastructure," Towill said.

John Clague, a professor of earth sciences at Simon Fraser University, says the work Metro Vancouver is doing is "emblematic" of what's needed to protect our water network. 

"Setting the steel frame and ensuring that it's well-bolted into the subsurface, I think, would protect it from almost any earthquake we could expect to experience here," he said.

Clague says it's important for the water system to be expanded as the Metro Vancouver population continues to grow south of the Fraser River in places such as Langley and Surrey. 

"That's where people are moving, and the population is increasing. And, of course, then the water needs of that population have increased," he said.

"So they continually have to expand that system, which requires they increase the number and lengths of some water mains, the actual subsurface water supply lines, and also occasionally to either upgrade or create new pumping stations that allow water to be delivered more locally."

• Earthquake in Turkey underscores risks and responsibilities for British Columbians

Clague says upgrades can't all be performed at once because it's too costly, according to Clague.

"It has to be done gradually, with priorities established as to what's most important."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Yasmine Ghania is an Egyptian-Canadian reporter with CBC News, currently based in Vancouver. She was part of a team nominated for a Canadian Association of Journalists award for their investigation into allegations of sexual and physical abuse at a private Christian school. Reach her at [email protected]

With files from Reuters, CBC's Johanna Wagstaffe

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Megathrust earthquake could decimate Metro Vancouver's water system, says report

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A megathrust earthquake could shatter Metro Vancouver’s capacity to send water to its 21 municipalities, a new report says. 

The heavily redacted report, published internally by the regional body in February but recently obtained by Glacier Media, indicates a 9 magnitude earthquake could lead to 267 water main failures across the region.

Some of the most worrying failures, confirmed Metro staff and independent experts, are forecast to occur where all of the region’s main trunk lines pass under bodies of water — from dammed mountain lakes on the North Shore, under the Burrard Inlet, and down the line, below the Fraser River.

“It's one thing for a pipe under the Lougheed Highway to leak. We can go dig that out, we can throw a patch on it, we can be out of there in four hours,” said Lucas Pitts, director of policy, planning and analysis for the Greater Vancouver Water District. 

“But for a crossing under the Fraser River, obviously, if that breaks, to fix that takes a very long time.”

Should a major earthquake hit the region, roughly 60 breaks are expected across 71 water crossings, found the study. That includes three to four breaks in category one crossings — like the Fraser River, Pitt River, False Creek and Burrard Inlet — and two failures in shallow rivers like the Coquitlam, Seymour and Brunette rivers. 

Twenty-two water mains connecting nearly every corner of the Lower Mainland face “high seismic vulnerability,” according to the report. That includes pipes running through the North Shore, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, the Tri-Cities, and on to Maple Ridge, Richmond, Delta and Surrey.

The study, commissioned to an external engineering consulting firm, was created through an analysis of 123 reports provided by Metro Vancouver — 41 looking at reservoirs, 21 at pump stations and 61 at pipelines. It also relied on geology maps from the Geological Survey of Canada, Google Earth, traditional terrain and digital elevation maps, and LiDAR data — maps created by bouncing lasers off the ground from aircraft.

Metro Vancouver redacted the total number of leaks and breaks in each water main, as well as the estimated damage to the 21 water storage facilities analyzed in the report. 

The redactions were carried out under a section of the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act that deals with disclosures that could “harm the security of any property or system, including a building, a vehicle, a computer system or a communications system.”

“All I can tell you is that the report was redacted to protect the safety and security of critical infrastructure,” added a spokesperson for Metro Vancouver.

Of the report’s nearly 300 pages, almost two-thirds were blacked out.

John Clague, a geologist and earthquake expert at Simon Fraser University, described the potential damage to water mains, pump stations and the reservoir system as “very large” and the report’s conclusions “rather scary.”

“Clearly, specific information about damage to particular water mains, pumping stations, and reservoirs is not for the public's eyes,” he said. “I would have loved to see the maps.”

First earthquake assessment of its kind in 30 years

This is the first time in three decades the regional authority has assessed the capacity of its water system to withstand a major earthquake. 

The last study, conducted in 1993, found that a roughly one-in 500-year event would lead to 31 water main failures and leave the system inoperable.

This time around, the estimated failures are over 8.5 times higher. Projected failures in water crossings alone outstrip the damage that was projected in the 1993 report.

Part of that is due to improved seismic building standards, which have undergone several rewrites as engineers and seismologists learn more about how megathrust earthquakes can impact a city’s built infrastructure. 

Pitts, whose department commissioned the report, said he expected it would project heavy damage due to new standards. But when it finally came back, he says the overall picture it painted was “quite substantial” and more than he expected.

“Design standards are… theoretical standards. They're not real-world situations. So you just don't know,” said Pitts. “We can't really make it so everything is going to survive an event like this. 

“We have to prioritize.”

What is a megathrust earthquake?

Megathrust earthquakes occur along subduction zones, tectonic faults in the Earth’s crust where relatively heavy oceanic plates slip under a more buoyant continental shelf. 

Once an oceanic plate sinks deep enough into Earth’s hot interior, it can melt, feeding a throng of volcanoes around the edge of the Pacific known as the Ring of Fire.

At times, the two tectonic plates can grind against each other. As they slow, pressure builds until one day they slip, releasing vast sums of energy in a single catastrophic moment.

This process is responsible for some of the world’s most violent recorded earthquakes. In recent years, that includes the 8.8 magnitude earthquake that decimated Concepción, Chile, in 2010, and the 9 magnitude Tōhoku earthquake that hit Japan in 2011. 

As one of the most documented mega-quakes in history, the undersea Tōhoku earthquake triggered a massive tsunami and high-profile meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear plant. It’s also the closest case study to the earthquake many experts expect to hit B.C. in the coming years.

North America’s next megathrust earthquake will begin in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). That’s where the Juan de Fuca plate is slowly diving under the North American plate along a 1,000-kilometre arc curving off the coast of Vancouver Island south toward northern California.

It will not be a first: at least 19 9 magnitude megathrust earthquakes have occurred along the CSZ since the end of the last ice age. 

But for years, scientists thought the B.C., Washington and Oregon coasts were seismically inactive — despite Indigenous stories that told otherwise.

Many Indigenous people from both sides of the B.C.-Washington border tell stories of the battle between the Thunderbird and the Whale , two supernaturally large creatures. 

One story documented on the Northern Olympic peninsula tells of a “shaking, jumping up and trembling of the earth beneath, and a rolling up of the great waters.” 

Another told by 84-year-old Huu-ay-aht First Nation Chief Louis Nookmis in 1964, described one community overwhelmed by a massive wave and another built on a hill that “did not drift out to sea with the others.”

“The land shook… a big wave smashed into the beach,” said Nookmis in a translated recording published in the journal Seismological Research Letters.

Clague, who was among 10 researchers who published such Indigenous accounts, has also helped uncover the catastrophic potential of a Cascadia earthquake through Western science. In Japan, researchers pored over 300-year-old tsunami records; in Washington state, others studied ancient marsh deposits; in Clague's case, he looked at how B.C.'s coastlines had been deformed. 

By the early 1990s, the evidence had grown to confidently declare a major earthquake last struck the region on Jan. 26, 1700, at 9 p.m. The West Coast was indeed a hotbed for seismic activity.

Today, seismologists estimate such an earthquake returns once every 500 years. By that metric, the Metro Vancouver report cites research suggesting a 9 magnitude earthquake has a 14 per cent chance of hitting the coast over the next 50 years, although others suggest the probability could be as high as 37 per cent.

But that 500-year return period is just an average, warns Clague. Megathrust earthquakes could hit once every thousand years or twice in a century. 

What’s certain, says the geologist: the region is due for something big.

How will 'The Big One' impact Metro Vancouver?

It's extremely difficult to predict what will face the most damage when the next major earthquake hits. That’s because much of the damage comes down to where and how deep the epicentre of the earthquake lies.

Towns and cities closest to the Cascadia fault line — ostensibly Vancouver Island communities like Tofino, Victoria and Saanich — will almost certainly be hit hardest. 

Once the seismic waves reach Metro Vancouver, their strength will probably weaken, states the report. But because Metro Vancouver has the largest concentration of people and built infrastructure in the province, the damage will almost certainly add up to “one of the biggest events that all of North America and Canada probably has ever seen,” said Pitts.

Strong ground shaking similar to the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake is expected to last three to four minutes.

Damage is expected to hit a region stretching from Vancouver as far south as Portland, provoking a massive mobilization of federal, provincial and state resources.

Borders would likely be closed and B.C.’s highway system would face heavy damage at least on the scale of last year’s atmospheric river event, says Brent Ward, co-director of the Centre for Natural Hazard Studies at Simon Fraser University.

The runways at Vancouver International Airport, meanwhile, would almost certainly be taken out of service, making emergency airlifts difficult in the early hours and days after the earthquake.

From the air, Ward says emergency crews would likely see a city punctuated by fire, most triggered by ruptured gas lines. Large pieces of older buildings are expected to fall into the street or collapse entirely.

Some taller, older buildings not built to standard would face accelerating cyclic shaking, creating a harmonic effect where the top part of the building moves faster than the bottom. 

“One that isn't properly designed will tear itself apart,” said Clague.

On the North Shore and along river escarpments across the region, mud and landslides would likely scar the hillsides. And if you were caught among older infrastructure, in the Massey Tunnel or on the Patullo Bridge, there’s a good chance you wouldn’t survive, says Ward.

“That kind of shaking makes it actually hard to drive a car… you can actually see waves moving along the land service,” he said. “You wouldn't be able to walk, you'd be lying on the ground.”

Because Ward expects to be on his own for several days, he has food stocked and keeps water filtration devices on hand. 

“I can go to the nearby lake or pond, or capture from my downspouts the water in the yard,” he said. “We've got tons of food in the fridge and freezer, and of course, you wouldn't have any power, so you'd be eating the stuff that was going bad as quickly as possible.”

For people in higher-density living, in condos or rental apartments, Ward says he is not sure where they are going to go after an earthquake.

“The idea is people would go to schools, hang out there if they have to. We're upgrading the schools but some of them may not survive the earthquake,” he said. Some of the older ones, especially those ones with the cinder block construction, again, really crappy in an earthquake.”

The worst damage from a tsunami is expected on the west coast of Vancouver Island. In Metro Vancouver, Ward says a smaller tsunami could push the sea another metre or two higher.

A bigger concern, he says, are some of the levees along the Fraser River failing due to a process known as “liquefaction.”

“Some of those areas are already below sea level,” he said. “There would be flooding for sure.”

'Liquefaction' identified as major source of damage

It’s not the shaking that’s expected to lead major sections of Metro Vancouver’s water transmission system to fail.

According to the report, about 30 per cent of the region’s water mains — or 140 km out of 498 kilometres of pipes — are in areas at severe risk to landslides and liquefying soils.

The ground at your feet might appear solid, but when an earthquake hits, it can quickly melt from under you.

Liquefaction begins to transform the landscape with the arrival of the first seismic waves. Underground, shaking forces water up through the soil, sand and stones, instantly turning once solid terrain into something approaching a “soup or stew,” said Pitts. Anything that ground once supported gives way, sinking into the morass. 

It’s a phenomenon geotechnical experts say threatens places like Richmond, B.C., most, where low-lying river sediments have built up over thousands of years, and where humans have dumped fill to reclaim land and prevent flooding. All of that primes the region’s dry land to return to the river and sea. 

In response, building codes require new construction projects to drive piles deep into the ground to anchor them below what’s known as the liquefaction zone. But that’s harder to do with pipe infrastructure that runs over long stretches of land as it's heaving up and down.

“In San Francisco, in the low-lying areas where they had all the fires, where all the gas lines broke, was all areas of fill,” said Pitts, referring to a 6.9 magnitude quake that hit the city in 1989.

Liquefaction also puts at risk Metro’s pump stations — designed to move drinking water throughout the region — and the region’s 26 reservoirs, mostly underground water storage facilities reinforced with concrete and steel. 

In both cases, the most serious damage is expected to occur at inlet and outlet pipes, where rigid connections could lead pipes to snap off. If they fail, the reservoir or pump stations will likely be made inoperable, noted the report.

“Those are the weak points in the facility systems,” said Pitts.

The time it would take to fix damage to Metro’s pump stations, reservoirs and water treatment plants ranges from less than a day up to 155 days for heavily damaged reservoirs, estimates the report.

Metro Vancouver staff redacted parts of the report detailing how a major earthquake would damage individual facilities.

“I would fear that we might have this interruption of these critical services for quite long periods of time,” said Clague after reviewing the redacted document. “Maybe a certain amount of that is inevitable, but you've got to have a plan B in a situation like that. Where's your water gonna come from?”

The presumption, he added, is that Metro Vancouver should always expand its water services from the mountain sources on the North Shore. It’s a path Clague says was chosen long before Surrey became a “megopolis.”

“Nobody seems to be talking about how could we use groundwater. There are aquifers in the Langley-Surrey area. They've never been exploited,” he said.

The dams holding back lakes in the Coquitlam, Seymour and Capilano watersheds — Metro Vancouver’s three main water sources — were not part of the study. 

Pitts said authorities independent from Metro Vancouver are currently updating seismic assessments of the Cleveland and Seymour Falls dams.

First step in planning post 'Big One'

For decades, multiple B.C. governments have honed in on seismically upgrading structures like bridges and schools — and for good reason, says Ward. 

“Those are things that can kill people, right? And so those got the highest priority,” he said. “Now, we're looking at what happens after the earthquake.”

As the latest report lays out, “water is going to be an issue.”

Metro has made some headway upgrading its water system — water mains passing underneath five major river crossings and two locations under the Burrard Inlet are either under construction or in the design stage. Such projects, however, are “very complicated and the design process itself takes many years before construction can begin,” warns Pitts.

Metro Vancouver still doesn't have a plan to get water to residents after a major earthquake, said Pitts, though the latest seismic study is the first step to put all those plans together. 

“It’d be great to just make everything completely resistant to a huge seismic event. But that would cost literally billions upon billions of dollars. And nobody really wants to pay that. And so, the cities struggle with the exact same thing,” said Pitts. 

Instead of hardening an entire region, Metro's 21 cities, one electoral district and one First Nation have focused on critical infrastructure, like hospitals or communities that will double as emergency shelters in a disaster.

What happens after the shaking stops and the waves recede is harder to plan for.

After a major earthquake, nobody is expecting to be able to turn on their taps, says Pitts. But where people will go to collect water is a question that still needs to be answered.

All the more reason, experts say, for individual households to build their own emergency water and food supply, and create a plan in the event ‘the big one’ hits. It’s the kind of planning taking part across 10 coastal B.C. communities over the next week as people practice walking to high ground in the event of a tsunami.

We don’t know when the next megathrust earthquake will hit, but with every passing day, the risk grows greater. 

For Ward, that risk means such post-disaster reports should have been completed a decade ago. At the same time, he, like all the experts interviewed for this story, acknowledged planning for a megathrust earthquake is a process of infrastructure triage, one that faces competition from a number of expensive spending priorities. 

In addition to conducting long-range planning to prevent the worst impacts of a major earthquake, Pitts says his department is also preparing for cyberattacks on the region’s water supply, while at the same time planning for fallout from wildfire and drought, all made worse by climate change.

As Clague put it, “This is something you cannot correct overnight.”

“But you got to start somewhere.”

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Massive earthquake in B.C. could trigger larger tsunami than expected: study

A new study is questioning whether current scientific models are underestimating the potential size of tsunamis off British Columbia's coast in the event of a large-scale earthquake.

Earthquake scientist John Cassidy says that an ocean plate off the B.C. coast is moving a few centimetres towards Vancouver Island each year, and when that happens sediment builds up.

"If you think of a bulldozer driving through the sand or through some soil, it sort of pushes everything forward and it stacks stuff up," he said. "[That's] exactly the same thing as the ocean plate."

The study published in the journal Earth Science Reviews looks at how that sediment would affect earthquakes in subduction zones around the world.

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

Southern B.C. is located on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which spans from northern Vancouver Island down to northern California.

"What this study is saying is that not only will the tsunami be generated by the movement of the fault, but also potentially the movement of the faults in the sediment that’s been scraped off over the years," said Kate Moran, CEO of Ocean Networks Canada.

"And so really, there could be higher waves generated in various locations on the planet," she said.

Local experts say that while the study is an important reminder of tsunami risks, researchers here are unlikely to change their current predictions.

"It's not something we would change our models or risk estimates at this time because it’s one piece of a very complicated puzzle," said Cassidy.

Still, the earthquake scientist says all information about how to accurately predict what to expect from tsunamis can help protect people and property.

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Vancouver’s food and water supply vulnerable to massive earthquake, internal reports warn

This article was published more than 4 years ago. Some information may no longer be current.

The Vancouver harbour is seen at dusk from Vancouver to North Vancouver, on Aug. 3, 2019. Experts agree that over the next 50 years British Columbia has a one-in-10 chance of being hit by a magnitude-9 earthquake. DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press

A massive earthquake on B.C.’s South Coast could disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Vancouver for several months, while bottled water and meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s dozen bridges, says an internal case study for Canada’s agriculture ministry.

The federal government wouldn’t be able to help much: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), the agency in charge of the response, would only be able to “facilitate” businesses and charities delivering such life-saving necessities, according to a March, 2018, case study and other internal documents obtained through freedom-of-information laws by Ottawa researcher Ken Rubin and passed on to The Globe and Mail.

The documents show the department has long been concerned about being designated to take a leading federal role in providing food and water if a province or territory asks Ottawa to pitch in on disaster relief. Things did not go well the lone time AAFC was asked for such assistance in recent years, when Public Safety Canada requested it source bottled water to give to asylum seekers crossing the border into Quebec in August, 2017.

big earthquake could hamper

relief efforts

A big earthquake off the coast of southern

British Columbia could hinder the distribution

of relief supplies by damaging key infrastruc-

ture such as bridges and reservoirs. An internal

case study by Canada’s agriculture department

found an earthquake of that force could disrupt

the flow of drinking water in and around Van-

couver for several months, while bottled water

and meal rations would likely be very difficult

to deliver because of damage to the region’s

key bridges

Key northern

Fraser River

JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE:

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada via ken

rubin; GOOGLE MAPS

A big earthquake off the coast of southern British Colum-

bia could hinder the distribution of relief supplies by

damaging key infrastructure such as bridges and reser-

voirs. An internal case study by Canada’s agriculture

department found an earthquake of that force could

disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Vancou-

ver for several months, while bottled water and meal

rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of

damage to the region’s bridges.

JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Agriculture

and Agri-Food Canada via ken rubin; GOOGLE MAPS

big earthquake could hamper relief efforts

A big earthquake off the coast of southern British Columbia could hinder the distribution of

relief supplies by damaging key infrastructure such as bridges and reservoirs. An internal case

study by Canada’s agriculture department found an earthquake of that force could disrupt the

flow of drinking water in and around Vancouver for several months, while bottled water and

meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s bridges.

JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

via ken rubin; GOOGLE MAPS

“The request revealed logistical challenges within AAFC surrounding how water would be sought (donation vs. procurement) as well as confusion regarding the responsibility for related actions within the department,” a memo to the deputy minister of the department stated.

Experts agree that over the next 50 years British Columbia has a one-in-10 chance of being hit by a magnitude-9 event, which is similar to the most recent megathrust earthquake, near Japan in 2011, which created a massive tsunami. But the case study, as well as an analysis commissioned by the federal department in 2015, shows not much progress is being made to address the gaps in how Ottawa would respond.

Unlike in the United States, where the Department of Agriculture and the Federal Emergency Management Agency stockpile food and water, Canada doesn’t have a dedicated disaster response agency and AAFC does not have warehouses full of supplies, according to the 2018 internal case study.

“AAFC would be challenged to lead the federal response to a request for safe food and water for public consumption due to the fact that AAFC is not an on-the-ground response system, has no direct access or ownership of food or water supplies, and has limited water-related expertise and resources,” the documents state.

Meanwhile, B.C.'s Emergency Management Agency noted its plans for how to provide potable water have been put on hold until it receives an update from Metro Vancouver, the regional body in charge of the area’s drinking-water network.

Metro Vancouver wouldn’t divulge its “multiyear" plans beyond saying five new water tunnels are being designed to current seismic standards. The organization did not provide an expected date for when these projects would be completed.

B.C. Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth has announced the province is planning to update its emergency-management laws by next fall to better manage and reduce the risks posed by natural disasters such as flooding and earthquakes. He noted the last time they were updated was in 1993.

He said it’s understandable that the federal government doesn’t stockpile food.

“The question becomes, how long were you stockpiling it for? … Even water, if it was bottled water, for example, has a life. But those are the kinds of issues that we take into account in terms of our emergency planning,” Mr. Farnworth said.

“One of the reasons why we advise people to be ready, if there is a disaster, to have 72 hours worth of supplies on hand, is because it will take time, [and] depending on where you are it may in fact take longer to get help and services to you.”

John Clague, a professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University who has studied earthquakes for three decades, said AAFC’s case study shows the federal government agency is serious about identifying the major shortfalls in its response capability. But, he said, the report also reveals the major challenges faced by Metro Vancouver if even a magnitude-7.5 earthquake hits with an epicentre 50 kilometres or closer to the region.

A good comparison for Vancouver, Dr. Clague said, is the magnitude-6.3 quake that hit seven kilometres from Christchurch, New Zealand, and led to nearly 200 deaths and $20-billion in damage. A worst-case scenario on the Canadian West Coast would likely see hundreds of thousands of Vancouver residents scrambling for potable water in the days following such a quake, he said.

living on the edge

An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction

zone could register higher than 9 on the Rich-

ter scale, about as powerful as the Tohoku

earthquake that devastated Japan in 2011.

Nothing like it has occurred in British Columbia

since Europeans first arrived, but traces of a

massive quake that shook the entire region on

Jan. 26, 1700, can still be found. Today, the

same event would deal a crippling blow to

communities and infrastructure in one of

Canada’s most populous regions.

Coast Mountains

Continental

Cascadia fault

Oceanic crust

Subduction zone

Juan de Fuca plate

is sliding underneath

the Continental crust

Partial melting

ivan semeniuk and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL

SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS; GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL

RESOURCES CANADA; POST MEDIA

An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could

register higher than 9 on the Richter scale, about as pow-

erful as the Tohoku earthquake that devastated Japan in

2011. Nothing like it has occurred in British Columbia since

Europeans first arrived, but traces of a massive quake that

shook the entire region on Jan. 26, 1700, can still be

found. Today, the same event would deal a crippling blow

to communities and infrastructure in one of Canada’s

most populous regions.

An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could register higher than 9 on the Richter

scale, about as powerful as the Tohoku earthquake that devastated Japan in 2011. Noth-

ing like it has occurred in British Columbia since Europeans first arrived, but traces of a

massive quake that shook the entire region on Jan. 26, 1700, can still be found. Today, the

same event would deal a crippling blow to communities and infrastructure in one of Cana-

da’s most populous regions.

British Columbia borders

two tectonic plates moving

in opposite directions

Van. Island

ivan semeniuk and JOHN

SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL

SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS;

GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL RESOURCES

CANADA; POST MEDIA

“You can imagine the water supply system – which is basically feeding from our [three] North Shore reservoirs – would be broken,” Dr. Clague said. "These are subsurface lines, the infrastructure is old and it is going to be a long time at a huge cost before it is capable of resisting a worst-case earthquake.”

Patrick Girard, an AAFC spokesman, said his department is working with the provinces to better understand when they feel they would need Ottawa’s help.

In the meantime, as recommended in the case study, AAFC has created a list of businesses and organizations that could be asked to provide food and water after a massive natural disaster, Mr. Girard confirmed.

If “The Big One” hits Vancouver, the AAFC case study found the non-governmental organization the province intends to lean on the most – the Salvation Army – could provide meals for 10,000 people a day.

But the charity said it has nowhere near the capacity to make 100,000 such meals, which would represent roughly one daily ration for every six people living in Vancouver.

The case study noted the Salvation Army has 13 food banks across the province and has asked local restaurants and the Save-On Foods grocery chain to donate meals in the aftermath of past natural disasters. Still, mobilizing the delivery of these supplies in Metro Vancouver could be impossible given that “a catastrophic earthquake in Southwestern B.C. would result in extensive damage to road and rail networks.”

“Even moving a mobile unit from Abbotsford [west] to the City of Vancouver could be hampered by damage to bridges,” the case study stated.

John McEwan, the director of Emergency Disaster Services for the B.C. arm of the Salvation Army, said he is optimistic that within two days of a massive quake his organization could be pumping out up to 50,000 meals a day. Within a week, airdrops of water and food could vastly increase that capacity, he said, but the state of the region’s roads and bridges would dictate how easily these supplies could be distributed.

“There are ways to do this, but it won’t happen overnight,” said Mr. McEwan, who has been working in the field of disaster relief across the Western Hemisphere for two decades.

He said every household should stockpile enough food and water to last longer than the three days worth recommended by the province: “If I’m the preacher, I’m saying seven days.”

The Canadian Red Cross, the other organization with a memorandum of understanding to help British Columbia in the wake of a disaster, mainly pitches in to provide clothing, emergency lodging, reception and information, personal and family reunification services, the case study noted.

The charity e-mailed a statement to The Globe noting that it could also provide water and sanitation after a catastrophic disaster and it has “access to resources and expertise from around the world through the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement.”

AAFC has long been uncomfortable with its stated responsibility of providing food and water if a province or territory asks Ottawa to pitch in on disaster relief.

In 2015, the AAFC commissioned an analysis from an outside consultant that recommended the department lobby the federal government to change the national emergency response plan adopted in 2011 to better reflect AAFC’s inability to provide food and water.

The 2015 report, which Mr. Rubin also received and passed to The Globe, responded to the AAFC’s request to provide a rationale for shifting this responsibility to Health Canada, which is responsible for medical supplies.

The consultant’s report found AAFC was the best department to stickhandle the emergency response because it “has strong existing networks that could be leveraged in an emergency event, and could serve as the basis for broadened partnerships, with respect to both food and water."

An appendix to the report stated: “We are of the view that AAFC would encounter strong resistance from both Public Safety Canada and the Health Portfolio to any proposal that the lead role for securing safe food should move away from AAFC.”

With a report from Justine Hunter in Victoria

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Case Study – The 2011 Japan Earthquake

Cambridge iGCSE Geography > The Natural Environment > Earthquakes and Volcanoes > Case Study – The 2011 Japan Earthquake

Background Information

Location : The earthquake struck 250 miles off the northeastern coast of Japan’s Honshu Island at 2:46 pm (local time) on March 11, 2011.

Japan 2011 Earthquake map

Magnitude : It measured 9.1 on the Moment Magnitude scale, making it one of the most powerful earthquakes ever recorded.

Japan is a highly developed country with advanced infrastructure, technology, and a robust economy. The nation has a high GDP, an efficient healthcare system, and extensive education. However, it’s also located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, making it prone to earthquakes.

What caused the 2011 Japan earthquake?

Japan is located on the eastern edge of the Eurasian Plate. The Eurasian plate, which is continental, is subducted by the Pacific Plate, an oceanic plate forming a subduction zone to the east of Japan. This type of plate margin is known as a destructive plate margin . The process of subduction is not smooth. Friction causes the Pacific Plate to stick. Pressure builds and is released as an earthquake.

Friction has built up over time, and when released, this caused a massive ‘megathrust’ earthquake. The enormous tension released as the plates shifted caused the seafloor to uplift, triggering the earthquake and subsequent tsunami .

The amount of energy released in this single earthquake was 600 million times the energy of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb.

Scientists drilled into the subduction zone soon after the earthquake and discovered a thin, slippery clay layer lining the fault. The researchers think this clay layer allowed the two plates to slide an incredible distance, some 164 feet (50 metres), facilitating the enormous earthquake and tsunami.

The earthquake occurred at a relatively shallow depth of 20 miles below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. This, combined with the high magnitude, caused a tsunami (find out more about  how a tsunami is formed  on the BBC website).

What were the primary effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake?

• Ground Shaking : Extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure.
• Landfall: Some coastal areas experienced land subsidence as the earthquake dropped the beachfront in some places by more than 50 cm.

What were the secondary effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake?

• Tsunami : A giant tsunami wave resulted in widespread destruction along the coast.
• Fatalities : Around 16,000 deaths were reported, mainly resulting from the tsunami.
• Injuries : 26,152 were injured, mainly as a result of the tsunami.
• Nuclear Crisis : The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was damaged, leading to radiation leaks.
• Economic Loss : Estimated at over $235 billion.
• Displacement : Around 340,000 people were displaced from their homes.
• Damage: The tsunami destroyed or damaged 332,395 buildings, 2,126 roads, 56 bridges, and 26 railways. Three hundred hospitals were damaged, and 11 were destroyed.
• Environmental Damage : Coastal ecosystems were heavily impacted.
• Blackouts: Over 4.4 million households were left without electricity in North-East Japan.
• Transport: Rural areas remained isolated for a long time because the tsunami destroyed major roads and local trains and buses. Sections of the Tohoku Expressway were damaged. Railway lines were damaged, and some trains were derailed.

What were the immediate responses to the 2011 Japan earthquake?

Tsunami Warnings and Prediction :

• The Japan Meteorological Agency issued tsunami warnings three minutes after the earthquake.
• Scientists predicted where the tsunami would hit using modelling and forecasting technology.

Search and Rescue Operations:

• Rescue workers and 100,000 members of the Japan Self-Defence Force were dispatched within hours.
• Some individuals were rescued from beneath rubble with the aid of sniffer dogs.

Radiation Protection Measures:

• The government declared a 20 km evacuation zone around the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
• Evacuees from the area around the nuclear power plant were given iodine tablets to reduce radiation poisoning risk.

International Assistance:

• Japan received help from the US military.
• Search and rescue teams from New Zealand, India, South Korea, China, and Australia were sent.

Access and Evacuation :

• Access was restricted to affected areas due to debris and mud, complicating immediate support.
• Hundreds of thousands were evacuated to temporary shelters or relocated.

Health Monitoring :

• Those near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear meltdown had radiation levels checked and their health monitored.
• Measures were taken to ensure individuals did not receive dangerous exposure to radiation.

What were the long-term responses to the 2011 Japan earthquake?

Reconstruction Policy and Budget:

• Establishment of the Reconstruction Policy Council in April 2011.
• Approval of a budget of 23 trillion yen (£190 billion) for recovery over ten years.
• Creation of ‘Special Zones for Reconstruction’ to attract investment in the Tohoku region.

Coastal Protection Measures:

• Implementing coastal protection policies like seawalls and breakwaters designed for a 150-year recurrence interval of tsunamis.

Legislation for Tsunami-Resilient Communities:

• Enactment of the ‘Act on the Development of Tsunami-resilient Communities’ in December 2011.
• Emphasis on human life, combining infrastructure development with measures for the largest class tsunami.

Economic Challenges and Recovery:

• Japan’s economy wiped 5–10% off the value of stock markets post-earthquake.
• Long-term response priority: rebuild infrastructure, restore and improve the economy’s health.

Transportation and Infrastructure Repair:

• Repair and reopening of 375 km of the Tohoku Expressway by the 24th of March 2011.
• Restoration of the runway at Sendai Airport by the 29th of March, a joint effort by the Japanese Defence Force and the US Army.

Utility Reconstruction:

• Energy, water supply, and telecommunications infrastructure reconstruction.
• As of November 2011: 96% of electricity, 98% of water, and 99% of the landline network had been restored.

How does Japan prepare for earthquakes, and what was its impact?

Japan has a comprehensive earthquake preparedness program, including:

• Strict Building Codes : Buildings are constructed to withstand seismic activity.
• Early Warning Systems : Advanced technology provides early warnings to citizens.
• Education and Drills : Regular earthquake drills in schools, offices, and public places.

Impact of the 2011 Earthquake

The extensive preparation in Japan likely saved lives and reduced damage during the 2011 earthquake. However, the unprecedented magnitude of the event still led to significant destruction, particularly with the tsunami and nuclear crisis.

The 2011 Japan earthquake illustrates the complexity of managing natural disasters in even the most developed and prepared nations. The event prompted further refinements in disaster preparedness and response in Japan and globally, highlighting the need for continuous assessment and adaptation to seismic risks.

The 2011 earthquake occurred off Japan’s Honshu Island, measuring 9.1 on the Moment Magnitude scale, one of the strongest ever recorded.

Triggered by a ‘megathrust’ in a destructive plate margin, the Pacific Plate subducted the Eurasian Plate, releasing energy equivalent to 600 million Hiroshima bombs.

Primary effects included extensive ground shaking and significant land subsidence in coastal areas.

Secondary effects included a massive tsunami, around 16,000 deaths, 26,152 injuries, a nuclear crisis at Fukushima, over $235 billion in economic loss, displacement of 340,000 people, and widespread damage to infrastructure and the environment.

Immediate responses included rapid tsunami warnings, extensive search and rescue operations, radiation protection measures, international assistance, and evacuation strategies.

Long-term responses focused on reconstruction policies, coastal protection, tsunami-resilient community development, economic recovery, and transportation and utility restoration.

Japan’s extensive earthquake preparedness, including strict building codes and early warning systems, likely reduced damage, but the magnitude still caused significant destruction.

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Tsunami sands help scientists assess Cascadia earthquake models

by Nathaniel Scharping, Eos

To better understand the scale of past earthquakes and tsunamis, scientists often use earthquake modeling or turn to evidence the tsunamis leave behind, such as sand deposits.

The most recent great earthquake in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which includes the Pacific Northwest coast, is the focus of many studies because geologic evidence of the event is found from Northern California to Vancouver Island, and observations of the associated tsunami were even recorded in Japan. These observations, combined with computer modeling, have allowed researchers to estimate the quake occurred at 9 p.m. on 26 January 1700.

Multiple studies have collected sediment cores to estimate how much ground subsidence the earthquake caused in coastal wetlands. Studies modeling the 1700 earthquake rely on these subsidence estimates to predict how much the fault slipped. Other studies focus on the extent and thickness of layers of sand and silt washed inland by the tsunami. But no study in Cascadia has yet combined mapping the full extent of these sandy tsunami deposits with a sediment transport model to determine earthquake size.

SeanPaul La Selle and colleagues took 129 cores from marshes in the Salmon River estuary along Oregon's northern coast and combined them with 114 existing core logs to test how well various models of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake performed.

Using the Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic and sediment transport model, the authors tested 15 different models of the earthquake to see how well each one reproduced the distribution of sediments brought inland by the tsunami.

They found that to match the thickness and extent of tsunami sediments found in the cores, the earthquake likely would have needed to cause at least 0.8 meters of subsidence at the Salmon River and about 12 meters of slip in the fault. Seven of the earthquake models they tested reproduced these conditions at low tide (when the main Cascadia quake occurred).

The findings are published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface .

The study provides new constraints on the size and character of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake. It also offers new insights into how tsunami deposit mapping and sediment transport models can be used to better reproduce past earthquakes and related tsunamis—and provide insight into future events.

The authors note their models were most sensitive to tide level, sand grain size, and sediment transport coefficients, insights that could help further constrain future models of this and other earthquakes. Further work involving collecting more tsunami deposit data, testing a more extensive set of earthquake sources, and comparing sediment transport and hydrodynamic models could unearth more details.

Provided by Eos

This story is republished courtesy of Eos, hosted by the American Geophysical Union. Read the original story here .

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Sand in Newport Beach was replenished in 2023. (Photo/iStock)

Beach erosion will make Southern California coastal living five times more expensive by 2050, USC study predicts

The region’s sandy coastlines are vanishing at an alarming rate. It’s a warning sign for coastal communities worldwide, USC research suggests.

Rising sea levels and urban development are accelerating coastal erosion at an alarming rate in Southern California with significant ripple effects on the region’s economy, a USC study reveals.

The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment , predicts that Southern California’s coastal living costs will surge fivefold by 2050 as a direct result of beach erosion. This erosion will require more frequent and costly beach nourishment projects to maintain the state’s treasured shorelines, consequently driving up the cost of living along the coast.

“Our study presents compelling evidence of the rapid deterioration of Southern California’s coastal landscapes,” said Essam Heggy , a geoscientist in the Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering/Electrophysics at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering and the study’s corresponding author.

“The challenges facing Southern California mirror a growing threat shared by coastal communities worldwide. The environmental and economic implications of coastal erosion reach far beyond California’s shores and demand interdisciplinary, global solutions,” he said.

Coastal erosion: Cost of living sure to surge as sandy beaches disappear

To predict future changes along California’s sandy coastlines, the researchers focused on the Gulf of Santa Catalina, which stretches over 150 miles from the Palos Verdes Peninsula in Los Angeles County to the northern tip of Baja California in Mexico.

They used a combination of historical and recent satellite images as well as advanced algorithms to analyze coastline movement and predict future erosion based on different trends and environmental factors.

The study predicts a tripling of erosion rates by 2050, increasing from an average of 1.45 meters per year to 3.18 meters by 2100. Consequently, the annual sand requirement for beach nourishment could triple by 2050, with costs rising fivefold due to the global increase in sand prices. This will exacerbate economic and logistical pressures on coastal communities.

Beach nourishment is adding sand to an eroded beach to rebuild it and create a wider barrier against waves and storms.

“Our investigation suggests that coastal problems start inland due to the rapid growth of cities along the coast, which compromise inland sediment replenishment of sandy beaches,” said Heggy, whose research focuses on understanding water evolution in Earth’s arid environments.

“As our beaches shrink, the cost of maintaining them will rise. Finding innovative solutions is key to securing a sustainable future for our shores and local economies,” he said.

Coastal erosion in California: A case study for a global problem

Coastal cities in Southern California and those in North Africa bordering the Mediterranean Sea face a common challenge: a semi-arid climate year-round coupled with the growing threats of rising sea levels and eroding shorelines.

A significant portion of Earth’s landmass, roughly 41%, falls under arid or semi-arid classifications, and these areas support over a third of the global population.

To understand this global challenge, the researchers focused on two specific locations: Corona del Mar in Orange County, Calif. — an example of the typical Southern California coastline — and Hammamet North Beach in Tunisia. Both are densely populated and share similar climates, prone to increasing droughts, flash floods and unpredictable rainfall patterns. These characteristics mirror the challenges faced by countless coastal communities worldwide.

The findings showed that the average rate of shoreline retreat in these areas varies. In Southern California, beaches are receding between 0.75 and 1.24 meters per year. In Hammamet North Beach, the retreat rate ranges from 0.21 to about 4.49 meters annually.

“While beach nourishment can temporarily combat erosion, however, it presents significant challenges for developing countries,” said Oula Amrouni, a sedimentologist at the National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies at the University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia, and one of the study’s co-authors. “The high cost of acquiring the right sand, with the specific grain size, quality and composition, and the technical complexity of extracting and laying it are major hurdles. Additionally, worsening erosion in previously stable areas compels more frequent nourishment projects, straining already limited budgets and leading to unplanned expenditures for many communities.”

About the study: Co-authors of the study include Oula Amrouni and Abderraouf Hzami of the National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies at the University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia.

This research is supported by the Arid Climates and Water Research Center at USC under contract from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (AWD#00630), the USC Zumberge Research and Innovation Fund, and the USC Sea Grant.

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