global warming essay in bengali language pdf

বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়ন

বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়ন (Global Warming)  বর্তমান বিশ্বে পরিবেশগত প্রধান সমস্যাসমূহের অন্যতম। এটি জলবায়ুগত এমন এক পরিবর্তন আসন্ন করছে, যা প্রক্রিয়াগতভাবে গ্রিনহাউজ প্রভাবের সাথে তুলনীয়। সমস্যাটিকে নিয়ন্ত্রণের মধ্যে নিয়ে আসার বিষয়টি অত্যন্ত জরুরি এজন্য যে, পৃথিবীর বায়ুমন্ডলের রাসায়নিক গঠনটি একশত বৎসর পূর্বের অবস্থা থেকে ইতোমধ্যে সম্পূর্ণ ভিন্ন এক অবস্থায় এসে দাঁড়িয়েছে এবং প্রকৃতপক্ষে বর্তমানের প্রযুক্তিগত অর্জনের মাধ্যমে নিকট ভবিষ্যতে এই পরিবর্তিত অবস্থাকে পূর্বের অবস্থানে ফিরিয়ে নিয়ে যাওয়া সম্ভব নয়। একশত বৎসর পূর্বের গড় তাপমাত্রার তুলনায় বর্তমান বিশ্বে গড় তাপমাত্রা প্রায় ০.৬০°সে বৃদ্ধি পেয়েছে। কম্পিউটার প্রযুক্তি ব্যবহারের মাধ্যমে জলবায়ুগত পরিবর্তন সম্পর্কে ভবিষ্যদ্বাণী করা হয়েছে যে, ২১ শতকের সমাপ্তিকালের মধ্যে বিশ্ব তাপমাত্রায় আরও অতিরিক্ত ২.৫° থেকে ৫.৫°সে তাপমাত্রা যুক্ত হতে পারে। ফলে, পৃথিবীপৃষ্ঠের পানির স্ফীতি, অত্যুচ্চ পর্বতের বরফশীর্ষ এবং মেরু অঞ্চলের হিমবাহের দ্রুত গলনের কারণে সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের পানির উচ্চতার ক্ষেত্রে একটি বৃহৎ পরিবর্তন ঘটতে পারে।

বিশ লক্ষ বৎসর পূর্বে পৃথিবীর তাপমাত্রা অনেক বেশি ছিল। সে সময় থেকে পৃথিবী হিমযুগ-আন্তঃহিমযুগ-হিমযুগ এই চক্রের মধ্য দিয়ে এগিয়েছে। প্লাইসটোসিন যুগের এই একটি হিমযুগ থেকে আর একটি হিমযুগীয় চক্রের মধ্যে দোলায়মানতার কারণ হলো সূর্যকে ঘিরে পৃথিবীর কক্ষপথের ভিন্নতা এবং পৃথিবীর তির্যক হয়ে আবর্তনের সঙ্গে সূর্যের সম্পর্কের বিষয়টি। হিমযুগ থেকে আন্তঃহিমযুগ অতিক্রম করে আরেকটি হিমযুগের সূত্রপাতের এই চক্রটির আবর্তন ঘটে প্রায় প্রতি ১ লক্ষ বৎসর পরে। হিমযুগে পৃথিবীর তাপমাত্রা পরবর্তী হিমযুগের অন্তর্বতী সময়ের তাপমাত্রার তুলনায় ৪° থেকে ৫°সে কম ছিল। সর্বশেষ হিমযুগটির সমাপ্তি ঘটে প্রায় ১০ হাজার বছর পূর্বে এবং এর ফলে মহাদেশীয় হিমবাহের পশ্চাদপসরণ ঘটে। গত ১০ হাজার বছর সময়ে বিশ্বের তাপমাত্রা ২°সে-এর অধিক উঠানামা করে নি।

সাম্প্রতিক বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়নের কারণ হিসেবে চিহ্নিত করা হয় বায়ুমন্ডলে বিশেষভাবে নির্দিষ্ট গ্রিনহাউজ গ্যাসসমূহের উপস্থিতির মাত্রার উত্তরোত্তর বৃদ্ধিকে। বায়ুমন্ডলীয় এই গ্যাসসমূহ হ্রস্বতরঙ্গের সৌর রশ্মির পৃথিবীতে পৌঁছতে বাধার সৃষ্টি করে না, অথচ দীর্ঘতরঙ্গের অবলোহিত বিকিরণ পৃথিবী থেকে বহির্বিশ্বমন্ডলে যেতে বাধার সৃষ্টি করে, যার ফলে পৃথিবীপৃষ্ঠ উষ্ণ হয়ে ওঠে। বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়নের জন্য দায়ী গ্যাসগুলি হলো কার্বন-ডাই-অক্সাইড, নাইট্রাস অক্সাইড, মিথেন, ক্লোরোফ্লোরোকার্বন এবং বায়ুমন্ডলের জলীয়বাষ্প। শিল্পায়ন, কৃষি সম্প্রসারণ, বিশেষত আর্দ্র ধান চাষ, স্বয়ংক্রিয় যানবাহনের সংখ্যাগত বৃদ্ধি, বনাঞ্চল উজাড় হওয়া- এ সবগুলিই প্রথম চারটি গ্যাসের পরিমাণ বৃদ্ধিতে তাৎপর্যময় ভূমিকা রাখে।

জলবায়ুগত পরিবর্তন   বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়নের ফলে বাংলাদেশে জলবায়ুগত পরিবর্তন, সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের উচ্চতার পরিবর্তন এবং জনসংখ্যার ঘনত্ব ও বণ্টনের ধরনে পরিবর্তন সংঘটিত হতে পারে বলে বিজ্ঞানিগণ আশঙ্কা প্রকাশ করেছেন। জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন প্রক্রিয়ায় সাধারণ আবর্তন মডেলসমূহ ব্যবহার করে বিজ্ঞানীরা ভবিষ্যদ্বাণী করেন যে, বায়ুমন্ডলে কার্বন-ডাই-অক্সাইডের পরিমাণ দ্বিগুণ হওয়ার সাথে সাথে বিশ্বব্যাপী তাপমাত্রার পরিবর্তনের পরিসীমাটি হবে ১.৫° থেকে ৪.৫° সেলসিয়াস। অবশ্য তখন থেকে জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের আন্তঃসরকারি পর্ষদের মাধ্যমে একটি নিম্নগামী পর্যালোচনায় ধারণা করা হয় যে, ২০০০ সালের মধ্যে এই পরিবর্তনের মাত্রার পরিসীমা ৩.৩° সেলসিয়াস। এই নিম্নগামী পর্যালোচনা বায়ুমন্ডলের স্ট্রাটোসফেয়ারের ওজোন স্তর হ্রাস এবং বায়ুমন্ডলে সালফেট এরোসলের উপস্থিতির ফলে বায়ুস্তর শীতল হওয়ার সম্ভাবনার বিষয়টি বিবেচনায় এনেছে।

বিগত ১০০ বৎসরে তাপমাত্রা ০.৫°সে বৃদ্ধি পেয়েছে, কিন্তু পরবর্তী ৫০ বৎসরে, অর্থাৎ ২০৫০ সালের মধ্যে বাংলাদেশে তাপমাত্রা ১.৫°-২.০° সেলসিয়াস পর্যন্ত বৃদ্ধি পেতে পারে এমন ধারণা করা হয়। বিশ্বব্যাপী তাপমাত্রা বৃদ্ধির হার অনুযায়ী পানিচক্রের তীব্রতার বৃদ্ধি ঘটে এবং বাষ্পীভবনের হার ১২% পর্যন্ত বৃদ্ধি পেতে পারে। পর্যায়ক্রমে তা বিশ্বব্যাপী অধঃক্ষেপণ (বৃষ্টিপাত, তুষারপাত, শিশিরপাত ইত্যাদি)-এর মাত্রা বৃদ্ধি করবে। এক্ষেত্রে অধঃক্ষেপণের পরিমাণগত দিক থেকে আঞ্চলিক বিভিন্নতা থাকতে পারে, তবে বাংলাদেশে বৃষ্টিপাত বৃদ্ধি পাবে। আইপিসিসি উদ্ভাবিত জলবায়ু মডেল নির্দেশ করছে যে, বাংলাদেশ ২০৩০ সালের মধ্যে শতকরা ১০ থেকে ১৫ ভাগ অধিক বৃষ্টিপাতের সম্মুখীন হবে। বাংলাদেশ প্রায়শই ধ্বংসাত্মক বন্যা কবলিত হয়। গত দুই দশকের মধ্যে ব্যাপক বন্যার ঘটনা ঘটে ১৯৮৭, ১৯৮৮ এবং ১৯৯৮ সালে। এসব বন্যায় দেশের অবকাঠামোর ব্যাপক ক্ষয়ক্ষতি ঘটে এবং শস্যক্ষেত্রের ফসল বিনষ্ট হয়। এসময়ে বৃষ্টিপাতের পরিমাণ বৃদ্ধি পরিস্থিতিকে আরও মারাত্মক করে তোলে।

বিজ্ঞানিগণ আরও আশঙ্কা করছেন যে, বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়ন গ্রীষ্মমন্ডলীয় ঝড়সমূহের সংখ্যা এবং প্রচন্ডতা বৃদ্ধি করবে। ২৭° সেলসিয়াসের অধিক সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের তাপমাত্রা ঘূর্ণিঝড় সৃষ্টির সহায়ক। বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়ন বর্তমান সময়ের চেয়ে সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের তাপমাত্রা আরও বৃদ্ধি করবে, ফলে ঘূর্ণিঝড়ের সংখ্যা ও তীব্রতাও অনেক বৃদ্ধি পাবে। বাংলাদেশ বরাবর সর্বনাশা ঘূর্ণিঝড় কবলিত হয়ে আসছে। ১৯৯১ সালে এরূপ এক ঘূর্ণিঝড় বাংলাদেশে আঘাত হানলে ১,৫০,০০০ মানুষের মৃত্যু হয় এবং এই আকস্মিক দুর্যোগ পশুসম্পদ ও অন্যান্য সম্পদের প্রচুর ক্ষতি সাধন করে। একটি উষ্ণতর জলবায়ু বন্যা এবং ঘূর্ণিঝড়ের মতো প্রাকৃতিক দুর্যোগের সংখ্যা বৃদ্ধির মাধ্যমে এ ধরনের ধ্বংসযজ্ঞের প্রকোপ আরও বৃদ্ধি করবে এবং তাতে দেশের উন্নয়ন প্রচেষ্টা মারাত্মকভাবে ব্যাহত হবে।

সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের পরিবর্তন   স্থানীয় পর্যায়ে প্রতিটি এলাকায় জোয়ারভাটা, বায়ুমন্ডলীয় চাপ এবং বাতাসের বেগের কারণে সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের অবিরাম পরিবর্তন ঘটে, তবে দীর্ঘমেয়াদে সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠ পরিবর্তন একমাত্র বিশ্ব জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের কারণে ঘটে থাকে। বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়ন সমুদ্রের পানির একটি তাপগত স্ফীতি ঘটাবে। তাপমাত্রার বৃদ্ধি মেরু ও পর্বতের বরফশীর্ষ এবং বরফের চাঁই গলনেও ভূমিকা রাখবে। বদ্বীপীয় ভূমি হিসেবে বাংলাদেশের একটি বিশাল এলাকা সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের উচ্চতা বৃদ্ধির কারণে জলমগ্ন হবে। দেশটির কত অংশ সমুদ্রগর্ভে হারিয়ে যেতে পারে তা নির্ভর করবে এর সঙ্গে সম্পর্কিত সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠ পরিবর্তনের ওপর। একটি টাস্কফোর্স প্রতিবেদন এমন ভবিষ্যদ্বাণী করেছে যে, সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের উচ্চতা এক মিটার বৃদ্ধি পেলে প্রায় ২২,৮৮৯ বর্গ কিমি ভূমি সমুদ্রে হারিয়ে যাবে, যা বাংলাদেশের মোট এলাকার প্রায় ১৫.৮%।

একটি নিম্নাঞ্চলীয় এবং উচ্চ জনসংখ্যা ঘনত্বের দেশ হিসেবে বাংলাদেশ সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের উচ্চতা বৃদ্ধির ফলে ভীষণভাবে ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত হবে। জোয়ারভাটার তীব্রতা বৃদ্ধির কারণে উপকূলীয় এলাকাসমূহে ভূমিক্ষয় এবং প্লাবনের মতো ঘটনা ঘটবে। সমুদ্রের পানিবৃদ্ধি জোয়ারের সময় লোনাপানিকে আরও অভ্যন্তর ভূমিতে অনুপ্রবেশে সহায়তা করবে। কৃষিজমি এবং মিঠাপানির প্রাণী ও উদ্ভিদ ধ্বংস হবে। সমুদ্র-তটরেখা মূলভূমির অভ্যন্তরে প্রবেশের ফলে উপকূলীয় সীমানা আকৃতির পরিবর্তন ঘটবে। এতে বাংলাদেশের ভূভাগ সংকুচিত হবে।

ধারণা করা হয় যে, ২১০০ সালের মধ্যে পৃথিবীপৃষ্ঠের তাপমাত্রা ১.৮° থেকে ৬.৩° সেলসিয়াসের মতো বৃদ্ধি পেতে পারে। এর ফলে সমুদ্রপৃষ্ঠের উচ্চতা ০.৫ মিটার বৃদ্ধি পাবে এবং মিসিসিপি থেকে বাংলাদেশে উচ্চ মাত্রায় জনসংখ্যা অধ্যুষিত উপকূলীয় এবং বদ্বীপ এলাকাসমূহে ব্যাপক প্লাবনের হুমকি দেখা দেবে। জলবায়ুগত দুর্যোগসমূহ যেমন, হারিকেন, ঘূর্ণিঝড় ও খরা ঘনঘন দেখা দেবে এবং এদের তীব্রতা বৃদ্ধি পাবে। গ্রীষ্মমন্ডলীয় রোগসমূহ যেমন, ম্যালেরিয়া এবং কলেরা বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়নের কারণে বিষুবরেখা অঞ্চলের উত্তর ও দক্ষিণে ছড়িয়ে পড়তে পারে।

বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়নের ফলে বাংলাদেশে অধিক বৃষ্টিপাত, ব্যাপক বন্যা, ভয়ঙ্কর ঘূর্ণিঝড়, খরা প্রভৃতি জলবায়ুগত পরিবর্তন সাধিত হতে পারে। পরিবেশ সংরক্ষণ ও টেকসই উন্নয়ন কৌশল পৃথিবী ও তার পরিবেশকে এবং বাংলাদেশের মতো দেশসমূহ বিশ্ব উষ্ণায়ন ঘটিত বিপর্যয় থেকে রক্ষা করতে পারে। [মাসুদ হাসান চৌধুরী]

• বাংলাপিডিয়া
• এই পাতা শেষ সম্পাদিত হয়েছে ১০:১২টার সময়, ২৪ ফেব্রুয়ারি ২০১৫ তারিখে।
• গোপনীয়তার নীতি
• বাংলাপিডিয়া বৃত্তান্ত
• প্রবেশ করুন

Global Warming

Global Warming assumption of climate change attributed to greenhouse effects. It is one of the major environmental issues facing the world today. Its importance lies in the fact that the chemical composition of the earth's atmosphere is already quite different from what it was a century ago and the fact that these changes are not reversible in the foreseeable future with the present level of technical know-how. Average global temperature is now about 0.6°C higher than it was 100 years ago. Computer models of climatic change are predicting that by the end of the 21st century the global temperature may rise by an additional 2.5° to 5.5°C. As a result, there may be a substantial change in the sea level caused by thermal expansion of the earth's surface water, and from a rapid melting of alpine and polar glaciers and ice caps.

Two million years ago, the earth's temperature was substantially higher. Since then the earth had experienced alternative glacial-interglacial cycles. The oscillations between glacial-interglacial cycles during the Pleistocene period were due to variations in the earth's orbit around the sun as well as due to changes in the earth's tilt in relation to the sun. This swing from glacial to interglacial cycles occurr approximately every 100,000 years. During the glacial periods the earth's temperature was 4° to 5°C less than the interglacial period. About 10,000 years ago, the latest ice age ended and the continental glaciers retreated. During the last 10,000 years, global temperature fluctuated by not more than 2°C.

Recent global warming has been attributed to the increased presence of certain greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These atmospheric gases allow the shortwave solar radiation to reach the earth but prevent the long wave infrared radiation from the earth to escape into outer space, thus warming up the earth's surface. The increased amounts of gases, which have induced global warming are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbon and water vapour in the atmosphere. Industrialisation, agricultural extension, specially wet rice cultivation, growth in the number of individual automobiles and deforestation have all made significant contributions to the emission of first four gases.

Three major impact of global warming on Bangladesh may be categorised as: climate change, sea level change , and changes in the pattern of distribution and density of population.

Climatic change Using general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate system, scientists had predicted a global change in temperature in the range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C with the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Over the past 100 years, temperature has increased by 0.5°C, but in the next 50 years, that is, by 2050 AD the temperature in Bangladesh is expected to rise by 1.5°-2.0°C. As temperature increases on a global scale, the hydrologic cycle will intensify and the rate of evaporation is expected to increase by 12%. This, in turn, will increase the level of precipitation globally. There may be regional variations in the amount of precipitation, but Bangladesh will experience an increase in rainfall. Climate models developed by IPCC indicate that Bangladesh may experience 10 to 15 percent more rainfall by 2030 AD. Bangladesh is visited by devastating floods quite frequently. In the past two decades, extensive flooding had occurred in 1987, 1988 and 1998 leading to colossal damages to infrastructures and the destruction of standing crops. An increase in rainfall will only worsen the situation.

Scientists also predict that global warming will increase the frequency and intensity of tropical storms. A high surface temperature of over 27°C of the sea helps in the formation of cyclones . Global warming will raise the sea surface temperature more than what it is now, thus increasing the possibility of cyclone occurrences. Bangladesh has already been experiencing catastrophic cyclones. The one that hit Bangladesh in 1991 claimed 150,000 lives and caused staggering losses to livestock and property. A warmer climate, by increasing the frequency of natural hazards such as floods and cyclones, will further aggravate such situations and negate the development efforts of the country.

Sea level change The sea level changes constantly in every locality due to changes in tides, atmospheric pressure and wind velocity. But long-term sea level changes occur only due to changes in the global climate. Global warming will cause a thermal expansion of the seawater. A rise in temperature will also melt the polar and alpine ice sheets. Since Bangladesh is deltaic, vast areas of the country will be submerged with the rise of the sea level. How much of the country will be lost to the sea will depend on the relative change in the sea level. As Bangladesh is part of an active delta a huge load of sediments is brought down and deposited by the great river systems of the ganges , brahmaputra and meghna . This leads to elevation of land. However, the weight of the huge load of sediment results in compaction of the soil and land subsidence. The sea floor is also rising because of deposition of sediments brought down by the rivers. subsidence and uplift of land may also occur from tectonic processes. A Taskforce report predicts that for one metre rise in the sea level will lead to loss of about 22,889 sq km of land, which is about 15.8% of the total area of Bangladesh.

Being a low-lying and densely populated country Bangladesh would be worst hit by any rise in the sea level. Coastal areas will experience erosion and inundation due to intensification of tidal action. A rise in seawater will enable saline water to intrude further inland during high tides. Destruction of agricultural land and loss of sweet water fauna and flora could also occur. The shoreline will retreat inland, causing changes in the coastal boundary and coastal configuration. The process will also shrink the land area of Bangladesh.

It is predicted that the surface temperature of the earth could rise by about 1.8° to 6.3°C by 2100. This could lead to a rise in sea levels by 0.5m and could threaten with inundation heavily populated coastal and deltaic areas from Mississippi to Bangladesh. Climatic disasters such as hurricanes, cyclones and droughts could become more frequent and severe. Tropical diseases such as malaria and cholera may move north and south of the equatorial region due to global warming.

To sum up, for Bangladesh, the climate changes caused by global warming may lead to more rainfall, massive floods, great cyclones and droughts. However, conservation of the environment and sustainable development strategies will definitely protect the earth and its environment and will particularly save countries like Bangladesh from' the catastrophe which can be induced by global warming. [Masud Hasan Chowdhury]

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Bangladesh is facing the consequences of the climate emergency

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• Peer review
• Rubhana Raqib , senior scientist 1 ,
• Mohammad Sirajul Islam , emeritus scientist 2
• 1 Nutrition Research Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
• 2 Health Systems and Population Studies Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Serious action is needed to mitigate the climate emergency and minimise associated health risks, write Rubhana Raqib and Mohammad Sirajul Islam

If global warming continues at present rates, the earth’s average temperature will increase by 2.6°C to 4.8°C by 2100. 1 In Bangladesh, the projected average temperature rise will be 1°, 1.4°, and 2.4°C by the year 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively. 2 A rise in sea levels will inundate coastal areas with saline water. The unregulated expansion of saltwater reserves for commercial shrimp farms in coastal belts is also accelerating the intrusion of salt water into drinking and irrigation water. This saline intrusion is already affecting 53% of coastal land in Bangladesh. 3 4 Consequently, about 20 million people from coastal areas are forced to use unsafe, contaminated surface water from ponds and rivers, leading to various waterborne infectious diseases such as cholera. 5

Saline intrusion in agricultural and pastoral lands results in a loss of food grains, vegetables, and habitat for livestock and fish. Agricultural production is additionally hampered by excessive heat, drought, torrential rains, and flooding. An estimated 40% of Bangladesh’s agricultural land will be destroyed by rising sea levels. 6 Cyclones and tornadoes, compounded by deforestation of mangrove forests, have made coastal areas increasingly vulnerable to erosion and damage from coastal flooding and storm surges. With a projected 50 cm rise in sea levels, Bangladesh is on the brink of losing one third of its land, which could result in the displacement of up to 18 million people. 7

The climate emergency, human migration, and health are intricately interconnected. A recurrence of extreme weather events forces rural people to migrate to cities because of a loss of livelihood (eg, in farming or fishing) and habitat and reduced supply of resources. According to projections, by 2050 one in seven people in Bangladesh will be displaced by the climate emergency. The overcrowded, unhygienic, resource limited living conditions in urban slums become further causes of ill health and malnutrition. 8

The world has witnessed outbreaks of rare and emerging infectious diseases, not to mention the devastating covid-19 pandemic. According to a recent report, close to 60% of infectious disease outbreaks in humans caused by diverse pathogens were induced by the climate emergency. 9 Heatwaves and persistent heavy rainfalls were associated with amplified transmission of vectorborne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and West Nile virus. At present an ongoing outbreak of dengue is putting a tremendous pressure on the health systems in Bangladesh. Rising temperatures, increased flood events, storms, and droughts were linked with heightened incidences of waterborne, respiratory, and skin diseases. Disruptions to habitats resulted in increased interaction of wildlife with humans, leading to outbreaks of zoonotic diseases (Nipah virus, Ebola, Hantavirus). Some of the other health impacts include hyperthermia and heat stroke during heat waves; undernutrition during droughts; respiratory and cardiovascular illness during wildfires and air pollution; and injuries, snake bites, and drowning during floods and cyclones. The interactions between the climate emergency and non-communicable diseases are complex; numerous exposure pathways are involved that influence the development of such diseases. For example, weather patterns and air pollution have independent yet interlinked effects on cardiovascular health. The climate emergency may affect factors related to diet, environmental exposure, and lifestyle that are linked to long term diseases. Extreme heat was shown to increase the risk of, and burden from, cardiovascular morbidity in older populations with various vulnerabilities in urban areas. 10 Increased salinity in drinking water raises the risk of hypertension and eclampsia in pregnant women in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. 11 12

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by restricting the use of biomass fuels and promoting renewable fuel sources is considered to be an effective strategy for the climate emergency. Despite Bangladesh contributing little (0.4%) to global emissions of greenhouse gases, adaptation efforts are essential for a low carbon development path. As a delta nation, Bangladesh has set a great example in adaptation and disaster risk management by reducing cyclone related deaths by 100-fold over a span of 50 years. The major factors responsible for the reduction in fatalities are the adoption of improved defensive measures, such as establishing early warning systems capable of evacuating millions of people in 24 hours, cyclone shelters, evacuation plans, coastal embankments covering about 6000 km of vulnerable coastline, reforestation schemes, and increased awareness and communication. 13 14

In Bangladesh, several initiatives have been introduced to promote the use of liquefied petroleum gas as a clean alternative to biomass fuel and natural gas for households and the transport sector. Scope exists for introducing further efficient and business friendly regulations and policy support to encourage industries to shift to liquefied petroleum gas to increase climate resilience and improve health.

Policies could also promote the planting of more trees to prevent deforestation and create additional jobs for those living on floodplains, on coastlines, and in areas more vulnerable to extreme temperature and weather conditions. Other measures could include better preparedness of the health sector and developing early warning systems for water and vectorborne diseases of epidemic potential. An example of this last measure is building awareness of the need to use treated surface water during the cholera seasons (winter and summer) to prevent transmission of Vibrio cholerae , and mosquito control to prevent dengue and chikungunya in the rainy seasons. 15

It is evident that vulnerable populations in developing countries will bear the brunt of current and projected climate emergency related events. A maximum loss of human lives will be caused by extreme, frequent, and long weather conditions. Urgent and aggressive actions are needed to limit the climate emergency by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions; by creating sustainable climate resilient agricultural production; by environmental engineering; and by improved preparedness of the health sector.

Competing interests: None declared.

Provenance and peer review: commissioned, not externally peer reviewed.

• National Adaptation Plan of Action- NAPA
• Ministry of Environment and Forest
• Silenzi A ,
• Marotta C ,
• Caredda E ,
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• ↵ World Bank. Warming climate to hit Bangladesh hard with sea level rise, more floods and cyclones, World Bank report says. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/06/19/warming-climate-to-hit-bangladesh-hard-with-sea-level-rise-more-floods-and-cyclones-world-bank-report-says
• ↵ New York Times . Facing rising seas, Bangladesh confronts the consequences of climate change. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/29/world/asia/facing-rising-seas-bangladesh-confronts-the-consequences-of-climate-change.html
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• ↵ The World Bank. Key highlights: Country Climate and Development Report for Bangladesh. 2022.
• Mahmud ZH ,

• Research article
• Open access
• Published: 15 March 2016

Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh

• Md Iqbal Kabir 1 , 2 , 4 ,
• Md Bayzidur Rahman 3 ,
• Wayne Smith 1 ,
• Mirza Afreen Fatima Lusha 4 ,
• Syed Azim 3 &
• Abul Hasnat Milton 1  

BMC Public Health volume  16 , Article number:  266 ( 2016 ) Cite this article

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Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change (CC). A basic understanding of public perception on vulnerability, attitude and the risk in relation to CC and health will provide strategic directions for government policy, adaptation strategies and development of community-based guidelines. The objective of this study was to collect community-based data on peoples’ knowledge and perception about CC and its impact on health.

In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh, with total population of 19,228,598. Thirty households were selected randomly from each enumeration area using the household listing provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Information was collected from all the 6720 research participants using a structured questionnaire. An observation checklist was used by the interviewers to collect household- and community-related information. In addition, we selected the head of each household as the eligible participant for an interview. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CC was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were used to further explore the predictors of knowledge.

The study revealed that the residents of the rural communities selected for this study largely come from a low socioeconomic background: only 9.6 % had postsecondary education or higher, the majority worked as day labourer or farmer (60 %), and only 10 % earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (equivalent to US $150 approx.). The majority of the participants (54.2 %) had some knowledge about CC but 45.8 % did not ( p  < 0.001). The majority of knowledgeable participants ( n  = 3645) felt excessive temperature as the change of climate (83.2 %). Among all the respondents ( n  = 6720), 94.5 % perceived change in climate and extreme weather events. Most of them (91.9 %) observed change in rainfall patterns in the last 10 years, and 97.8 % people think their health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Age, educational qualification, monthly income, and occupation were significantly associated with the knowledge about climate change ( p  < 0.001). People with higher educational level or who live near a school were more knowledgeable about CC and its impact on health.

Conclusions

The knowledge level about CC in our study group was average but the perception and awareness of CC related events and its impact on health was high. The most influential factor leading to understanding of CC and its impact on health was education. School-based intervention could be explored to increase peoples’ knowledge about CC and necessary health adaptation at community level.

Peer Review reports

The adverse effect of climate change on human health has been recognized relatively late in the development of climate science and policy making [ 1 , 2 ]. The recent Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reinforces the need for societies to take adaptive actions to protect human health from the adverse consequences of climate change [ 3 ]. Climate sensitive health determinants and outcomes pose a threat to public health in Least Developed Countries (LDC) [ 4 – 6 ]. To protect health, highly strategic interventions for adaptation will be needed over the next 20–30 years in LDCs such as Bangladesh [ 7 – 9 ].

Climate change (CC) related health risk is a multidimensional and cross cutting issue. To date, a number of studies have suggested that peoples’ perception of and attitude towards CC risk is closely related to adaptative behaviour and mitigation action [ 10 – 12 ]. However, few such studies have been carried out in developing countries [ 13 – 16 ]. Bangladesh is on top of the IPCC risk index of climate victims since 2007 [ 17 ].

In this context, epidemiological research has a major role to play in combating CC-related adverse health effects. In a recent cross-sectional study from two villages, one from the northern and another from the southern part of Bangladesh, households’ ( n  = 450) perception of human health risks were explored, which suggested the need for further research with a larger sample size to allow generalization [ 18 ]. Another study revealed that the public perceptions towards CC, and its impact on health, may inform policies to cope with associated health challenges of CC [ 19 ]. In some studies, lay people perceived CC with misconceptions and misunderstandings about its cause and effects [ 20 – 22 ]. These misunderstandings have the propensity to cause fear about the consequences of CC [ 23 ]. However, environmental change management and associated education from the government are important to build resilience among the vulnerable communities [ 24 ].

Knowledge of CC is a necessary precursor for people to adapt appropriately. The health sector of Bangladesh does not have evidence-based strategies for health adaptation to CC. A survey undertaken by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of Bangladesh forms the basis of a future cohort study. Such a study is needed to expand our knowledge of evidence-based translational research, particularly in the context of being one of the most vulnerable LDCs. The objective of this study was to collect baseline data on knowledge and perception of CC, and the awareness of prevalence of climate sensitive diseases, in selected vulnerable areas of Bangladesh. We also collected baseline data on CC-related diseases such as malaria, Dengue fever, pneumonia & diarrhoeal diseases. This paper focuses on knowledge and perception.

The results of this study provide useful information for policy makers and other stakeholders in the health sector of Bangladesh, so they can better respond to the challenges of CC and their effects on health.

Design and setting

This community-based cross-sectional study was carried out in 2012 in seven purposely-selected districts of Bangladesh, namely Bagerhat, Borguna, Coxbazar, Faridpur, Khulna, Sathkhira and Shirajganj. These are known to be cyclone, flood and salinity prone and hence constitute the most vulnerable areas to climate change [ 25 ]. The total population of the seven districts is 19,228,598 individuals (census 2011). This survey was jointly conducted by the Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit (CCHPU) of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Bangladesh, Health Communication Network, Bangladesh, and the University of Newcastle, Australia.

Sample size calculation

We calculated the sample size for this study based on the precision of the prevalence of peoples’ knowledge about CC. We assumed that approximately 50 % of people have some knowledge about climate change. To estimate this proportion with a 95 % confidence interval, 371 participants are required. We used a four-stage multilevel cluster sampling technique. Assuming a design effect of 2 for each stage, the total design effect is 16, and the required sample size is 371 × 16 = 5936. To allow for a 10 % non-response and for 1 % missing data, the required sample size is 6670. To evenly distribute the samples across districts we sampled 960 households from each of the seven districts, a total of 6720 households. In this study the knowledge of climate change was assessed only for the head of each household.

Study population

The targeted study population was the total community of the seven vulnerable districts. Multistage sampling was used to select respondents for the study. We randomly selected four upazilas (sub-district) from each district as the primary sampling units. Then four unions (lowest administrative unit) per upazila (a total of 112 unions) were randomly selected, followed by 2 villages from each union. Thus a total of 224 villages were finally selected. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has standard Enumeration Areas (EA) and household listing for its census, which we used for EA and household selection. From each selected village, we randomly selected one EA and 30 households within each EA, using the BBS household numbers (total number of households =6720). From each household, we selected the head of the household as eligible participant, and obtained written consent or thumb impression. The consented participant provided information on other household members.

Development of climate change knowledge-perception questionnaire

The main instrument used for this study was a pretested, structured interviewer-administered interview schedule. We reviewed literature on CC for developing questionnaires on CC and health knowledge, perception, attitude and behaviour measures in relation to CC. We also contacted experts in the field to check for availability of a valid tool to assess CC knowledge. All perception questions on CC or health or CC extreme events had responses using various Likert-type answers such as ‘Yes’, ‘No’ or ‘Did Not notice’, or categorical options. The final interview schedule comprised a set of 37 questions on various aspects of climate change and health issues. As a part of the questionnaire, we also developed an observation checklist of household and community characteristics used by the interviewers (Additional files 1 and 2 ).

Measurement of outcome variables

The number of deaths from drowning and snake bites during extreme weather events was collected for the last 10 years preceding the interviews. The number of snake bites received by any household member during the previous 12 months was recorded. Prevalence of diarrhoea and pneumonia of children aged under five, and of Dengue fever and malaria in any household member, was collected and is presented elsewhere (unpublished observations by Kabir MI, Rahman MB, Smith W, Lusha MAF and Milton AH). Participants who indicated that they had heard of CC were asked for their explanation of CC, followed by questions about its causes. The knowledge score was obtained from this information. We also asked CC related specific questions to all the respondents to assess their perception of CC irrespective of their knowledge about CC.

Data Collection

A structured draft questionnaire was developed and finalised after pre-testing in a similar rural setting. The final questionnaire was used to collect information on socio-demographic characteristics of the participants, and their knowledge and perception of climate change, extreme weather events and health. Other relevant information on health services and health education programmes at school was collected through face-to-face interviews.

A week-long training was provided to the data collectors. The trained 28 interviewers administered the questionnaire at household level under the direct supervision of 14 field supervisors over a two-week period. The quality-control team formed by the investigators monitored the performance of field personnel and supervisors through regular observation at the household level and regular checks of data for completeness. In 5 % of study participants, the quality control team independently repeated data collection. The investigators checked each filled-up questionnaire to ensure that no information was missing; any error detected was corrected immediately at the field, sometimes by revisiting the household, before it was entered into the computer.

Statistical analysis

Collected data were entered into the computer and validated using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), version 21 by a series of logical and range checks, producing summary statistics and tables. Data were immediately copied onto the hard disks of two computers as soon as data verification was complete, and a copy was sent to the Principal Investigator at the University of Newcastle, Australia.

The summary statistics were reported as means with standard deviations (SD) for continuous variables, or as percentages with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for categorical variables. Sociodemographic variables and participants’ responses were summarized and presented using frequency tables. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of climate change was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were applied to further explore the predictors of knowledge that were significant using bi-variate analysis. Where necessary, we also estimated dose–response relations using the ‘contrast’ post-estimation command after fitting a logistic regression in Stata (Stata 13 STATA Corporation, Texas, USA). We estimated the incidence densities of different events (e.g. death from drowning) by fitting intercept-only zero-inflated Poisson models using total number of household member as the offset. To adjust for the design effect of multistage sampling, we created sampling weights and incorporated them in the analyses using the ‘svy:’ command in Stata.

Ethical approval and consent

The study protocol was approved by the Bangladesh Medical Research Council and by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the University of Newcastle, Australia (H2012-0163). Written informed consent (thumb impression in case of writing inability) was obtained from the heads of the household after the written information note was read out at the beginning of the interview.

A total of 6720 participants from 224 cluster villages in Bangladesh were interviewed. Each cluster contains 30 households in each of 56 unions within 28 upazilas in 7 coastal districts.. All participants were head of their households, comprising 6245 males (92.9 %) and 475 females (7.1 %). The mean age of the participants was 44.7 years with a standard deviation (SD) of 13.5 years. The mean duration of stay in the locality was 30 years (median 25, SD 15). The majority was in their middle age (45–60 years, 55.7 %), currently married (91.6 %), and had experienced extreme weather events (95.7 %) during their stay in the locality. As the study was conducted in coastal and rural Bangladesh the participants were mainly living in non-brick houses (91.3 %), and their main source of drinking water were either shallow (43.7 %) or deep (41.9 %) wells. Participants came largely from low socioeconomic backgrounds: only 9.6 % had post-secondary education or higher; the majority were day labourers or farmers (60 %), and only 10 % earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (1 USD = 77 Bangladeshi Taka.) (Table  1 ).

Table  2 shows the responses of the participants on their climate change knowledge. The majority ( n  = 6720) of the research participants (54.2 %) acquired knowledge about CC from some source and 45.8 % had not heard of CC at all. Among the knowledgeable participants ( n  = 3645), the majority felt that CC was manifested in an increase in (83.2 %). More than half (53.9 %) attributed a change in the pattern/periodicity of rainfall to CC, 43.2 % felt a colder winter than usual cold, and more than one third saw CC in a higher incidence of cyclones or tidal waves (36.5 %). Some thought that frequent flooding (13.8 %) and water logging (8.7 %) are an effect of CC. When participants were asked about causes for CC ( n  = 3645), responses varied from deforestation (81 %) to rapid urbanization and changes in life style (1.9 %). More than half of the participants felt that CC was due to population growth (56.9 %). As many as 28.1 % believed that industrial effluents are one of the cause, 25.1 % chose black exhaust from vehicles, and 4.9 % attributed CC to excessive carbon emissions by the developed countries. In terms of the source of knowledge, television was the most commonly mentioned (55.6 %), followed by neighbours (54.8 %) and radio (39 %) (Table  2 ).

We also asked all the participants CC-related questions, irrespective of their knowledge about CC, to explore their perception and awareness towards the influence of CC on human health and the environment (Table  3 ). Participants observed increased episodes of extreme weather events such as drought (85.5 %), cyclones/floods (61.3 %), and tidal waves (42.1 %) in the past 10 years preceding the study. Most of them (91.9 %) observed a change in rainfall pattern over the last 10 years. Although 54.2 % of participants had heard of CC, 94.5 % had observed changes in climate. Some of the participants perceived that the sea water level had increased (17.4 %), while 46.7 % had not noticed this.in the coastal areas. About 29 % of the total households were not living in the coastal area but they were also been asked the question.

In addition to the environmental elements, participants’ perception of CC-related health effects was also limited. Most of the participants (80 %) believed there will be a scarcity of fresh water due to increase in salinity, as a majority (53.3 %) had observed increased water salinity in the past 10 years preceding the interview. About 61 % were aware of increasing health risk such as high blood pressure, pregnancy outcomes because of increase in salinity. In terms of food security, almost 71 % indicated that food crop production would be negatively affected. The incidence of deaths from drowning and snake bite during the extreme weather events of the last 10 years were 32 (95 % CI: 27 to 38) and 6.8 (95 % CI: 3.5 to 13.2), respectively, per 100,000 population per year. The incidence of snake bite for the year preceding the study period was 36 (95 % CI: 29 to 45). Almost all participants (97.8 %) believed health care expenditure increased after extreme weather events (Table  3 ).

Cross-tabulation was done to examine the association between sociodemographic variables and the knowledge of the participants on CC. Age, sex, education, occupation, monthly family income, nearby government health facility, and presence of any school in the survey area were significantly associated with the knowledge of participants (Table  4 ).

Education was significantly associated with CC knowledge in the univariate analyses. In the multivariable analysis, education, sex and availability of school in the area were significantly associated with knowledge of CC and its health impacts. A clear dose–response association was observed with educational level (P-for linear trend from logistic regression <0.001). Respondents from a locality with a school were three times more likely to have knowledge about CC and its impact on health than those who did not have a school in their locality (Table  5 ).

This study, to the best of our knowledge, is the first large-scale quantitative attempt to assess the knowledge and perceptions of the vulnerable communities in Bangladesh about CC and its impact on health. The findings provide important insights into what people think and believe from their experience at the grassroots level. The household participants were from the rural areas that are vulnerable to climate change [ 25 ]. Since we interviewed the heads of the households, most of the participants were male. The majority of participants were relatively poor and had little formal education with an agro-based livelihood, which is consistent with the national level data [ 26 ]. However, they have a clear perception about the change in climate and associated variability in temperature, rainfall, salinity and sea level, and the effect of these changes on their health. Knowledge and perception studies on CC and its associated health impact had been conducted in the Philippines [ 27 ], Vietnam [ 28 ], United States of America, Canada, and Malta [ 29 ], Nigeria [ 30 ], Nepal [ 31 ], Bangladesh [ 24 ], India [ 32 ], Australia [ 33 ], and China [ 34 ]. A previous cross-sectional study of two villages in Bangladesh had the limitation of generalizability of their findings regarding households’ perception of CC and human health risks [ 24 ]. In our study, we used a similar approach but our sample size was larger, more representative and better distributed geographically among vulnerable communities.

Out of 6720 participants, slightly more than fifty four percent had knowledge of ‘climate change’. Almost 46 % of the vulnerable community had not heard about CC, which might be a concern for the policy makers in health sector to provide adequate community level training on CC and its impact on health through the community clinics. The results are similar in two other studies conducted in LDCs, Nigeria [ 30 ] and Nepal [ 35 ], where 54 % and 51.3 %, respectively, of the participants reported they know about ‘climate change’. From our study, of those who had knowledge about CC, the majority named mass media (television, radio, newspaper etc.) and neighbours as their source. Very few people mentioned hearing about CC from teachers, Imams, health workers and non-governmental organization (NGO) workers. This indicates that mass media and discussions in the neighbourhood are important source of information. Opinion leaders such as teachers and imams of mosques, and service providers such as health workers and NGO workers need formal training on CC and its impact on health in the field level. There is a sectoral gap of engagement from the government system with health and environmental issues. This is consistent with the study conducted in Nepal [ 35 ]. Overall, our study highlights that mass media coverage, especially through community radio and television, is currently the major source of information about CC.

Most of the participants believed that there had been a change in climate in the 10 years preceding the interview. This perception is supported by data collected at national level on the climate in Bangladesh. Data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the periods of 1951–2011 show that for any ten-year period the temperature was higher and rainfall less predictable than in the preceding ten years [ 36 ]. Other countries such as Jamaica, Vietnam, and Nepal reported identical findings for their studies among a similar population [ 23 , 28 , 35 ]. With regard to causes or reasons for CC, most of our participants mentioned deforestation followed by population growth and industrial effluents. The other less scientific reasons given by the participants, such as black smoke of vehicles, could be due to their low level of education and less exposure to the scientific facts by virtue of their occupation. These results also supported by other studies carried out in Bangladesh and other LDCs such as Nigeria and small island countries such as Trinidad and Tobago [ 30 , 37 ].

The perceptions of vulnerable people are also consistent with the national level findings. Annual maximum temperature over Bangladesh is increasing by 0.09 °C but annual minimum temperature is increasing by 0.10 °C. The rate of increase of the annual minimum temperature is higher than that of the annual maximum temperature [ 38 ]. The annual average rainfall over Bangladesh is increasing by about 10.6 mm per decade whereas monsoonal rainfall over Bangladesh is decreasing by 7.6 mm per decade [ 39 ]. The participants also had the perceptions that episodes of extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods, storm surges, heavy rains within a short time, and droughts had increased compared to ten years earlier. It has been observed from the BMD database that the frequency of cyclones has been increasing in every decade since the 1970s [ 40 ]. Bangladesh evidenced ten severe floods during the last 40 years. Every 4–5 years severe floods inundate about 60 % of the country. In 2007, two successive and damaging floods occurred in the same season [ 41 ]. It has been found that the frequency of heavy rainfall in June, July and August has increased over the last few decades [ 39 ].

With regard to the sea level rise, the perception of the coastal participants from Borguna, Bagerhat, Cox’s bazar, Khulna and Satkhira is supported by historic data on sea water level rise in three of the coastal districts: Bagerhat, Satkhira and Khulna. These data show that the mean annual water level has risen by 4.5 mm/year in about 20 % of the total area of these three districts, which is attributed to the global sea level rise associated with anthropological activities [ 42 ]. The perception of our participants regarding salinity intrusion and increase in water salinity is also supported by another evidence-based study [ 43 ].

Participants strongly agreed that agricultural food crop production had declined during the last 10 years, and population health had been adversely affected by CC in their villages. This has serious implications regarding food security and livelihood. The number of deaths from drowning and snake bites supports other community-based studies in Bangladesh [ 44 , 45 ], although the incidence was higher in our study because of the increase in the number of extreme weather events. This finding has important implications for local level planning and policy development. Moreover, understanding the concerns of people about increased health care expenditure after the extreme weather events may help policy makers to develop and implement apprpriate adaptive measures for health adaptation.

In our study, heads of households with higher levels of education were more likely to be aware of CC than those with lower education levels. Other studies also reported that CC awareness most strongly depended on the respondent’s level of education [ 27 , 31 , 46 ]. In the course of educational development of Bangladesh the availability of schools in rural and remote areas was a major factor in students’ drop out and people’s education level. Our study suggests that schools play an important role for increasing knowledge on CC and associated adaptation issues.

Our study has several strengths. We surveyed a large number of households. Furthermore, the study recruited participants from an array of geographic locations known for their susceptibility to CC. This makes the findings from this study relevant to other CC-vulnerable areas of Bangladesh. A further strength is the collection of data with local context in association with how extreme weather events were experienced. The findings will be useful for developing strategies to induce individual and community behaviour change to better cope with CC and make adaptations to minimise health issues. The findings could be used as baseline for a future cohort study. There were a few limitations to the study, including the recall bias, as we relied on the previous experiences and subjective judgements of the head of the households. As 92.9 % of participants were male, female perception was not considered. Peoples’ perception on CC and its impact on health could not be checked against real-time data. Such data could be collected in future to allow estimating the accuracy of community perceptions.

The knowledge level of the study participants on CC was more than our assumption (54 %) and the perception of vulnerable communities on changing climatic factors and their impacts on health was higher (94 %). The public health sector needs to be engaged more in primary health care by training health workers at field level to address CC and health issues. Level of education is an influential factor to understand CC and its impact on health. Based on these key findings, policy makers can develop effective communication strategies for the vulnerable communities in Bangladesh and similar LDCs to protect human health from the adverse effect of CC. To protect future generations child-centred educational intervention at school level on CC and health adaptation could be explored by further research [ 47 ].

Abbreviations

The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Bangladeshi Taka

Bangladesh Meteorological Department

• Climate change

the Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Least Developed Countries

United States Dollar

World Health Organization

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Acknowledgement

We acknowledge the financial support provided for this study by the Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit (CCHPU) of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh. We thank the study participants, and the project director, project staff, trainers, data collectors and Youth Think Tank members of CCHPU. We are grateful to the Bangladesh Medical Research Council (BMRC) for their kind support. Finally, the authors thank Claudia Koller for assistance with editing this manuscript.

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Authors’ contributions

MIK designed the study, developed the questionnaire, trained the data collectors, supervised the data collection and wrote the paper. MBR analysed the data and contributed to writing the paper. WS contributed to the interpretation of the findings. MAFL supervised the data collection, data entry and contributed to writing the paper. SA contributed with assistance in weighting the data. AHM contributed to the overall development of study concept, design, overall supervision of MIK and finalization of the paper. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Kabir, M.I., Rahman, M.B., Smith, W. et al. Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh. BMC Public Health 16 , 266 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-2930-3

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Published : 15 March 2016

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-2930-3

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The ‘Conclusion’ confirms that global warming is the major challenge for our global society. There is very little doubt that global warming will change our climate in the next century. So what are the solutions to global warming? First, there must be an international political solution. Second, funding for developing cheap and clean energy production must be increased, as all economic development is based on increasing energy usage. We must not pin all our hopes on global politics and clean energy technology, so we must prepare for the worst and adapt. If implemented now, a lot of the costs and damage that could be caused by changing climate can be mitigated.

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Human activity affects global surface temperatures by changing Earth ’s radiative balance—the “give and take” between what comes in during the day and what Earth emits at night. Increases in greenhouse gases —i.e., trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane that absorb heat energy emitted from Earth’s surface and reradiate it back—generated by industry and transportation cause the atmosphere to retain more heat, which increases temperatures and alters precipitation patterns.

Global warming, the phenomenon of increasing average air temperatures near Earth’s surface over the past one to two centuries, happens mostly in the troposphere , the lowest level of the atmosphere, which extends from Earth’s surface up to a height of 6–11 miles. This layer contains most of Earth’s clouds and is where living things and their habitats and weather primarily occur.

Continued global warming is expected to impact everything from energy use to water availability to crop productivity throughout the world. Poor countries and communities with limited abilities to adapt to these changes are expected to suffer disproportionately. Global warming is already being associated with increases in the incidence of severe and extreme weather, heavy flooding , and wildfires —phenomena that threaten homes, dams, transportation networks, and other facets of human infrastructure. Learn more about how the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, released in 2021, describes the social impacts of global warming.

Polar bears live in the Arctic , where they use the region’s ice floes as they hunt seals and other marine mammals . Temperature increases related to global warming have been the most pronounced at the poles, where they often make the difference between frozen and melted ice. Polar bears rely on small gaps in the ice to hunt their prey. As these gaps widen because of continued melting, prey capture has become more challenging for these animals.

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global warming , the phenomenon of increasing average air temperatures near the surface of Earth over the past one to two centuries. Climate scientists have since the mid-20th century gathered detailed observations of various weather phenomena (such as temperatures, precipitation , and storms) and of related influences on climate (such as ocean currents and the atmosphere’s chemical composition). These data indicate that Earth’s climate has changed over almost every conceivable timescale since the beginning of geologic time and that human activities since at least the beginning of the Industrial Revolution have a growing influence over the pace and extent of present-day climate change .

Giving voice to a growing conviction of most of the scientific community , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), published in 2021, noted that the best estimate of the increase in global average surface temperature between 1850 and 2019 was 1.07 °C (1.9 °F). An IPCC special report produced in 2018 noted that human beings and their activities have been responsible for a worldwide average temperature increase between 0.8 and 1.2 °C (1.4 and 2.2 °F) since preindustrial times, and most of the warming over the second half of the 20th century could be attributed to human activities.

AR6 produced a series of global climate predictions based on modeling five greenhouse gas emission scenarios that accounted for future emissions, mitigation (severity reduction) measures, and uncertainties in the model projections. Some of the main uncertainties include the precise role of feedback processes and the impacts of industrial pollutants known as aerosols , which may offset some warming. The lowest-emissions scenario, which assumed steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions beginning in 2015, predicted that the global mean surface temperature would increase between 1.0 and 1.8 °C (1.8 and 3.2 °F) by 2100 relative to the 1850–1900 average. This range stood in stark contrast to the highest-emissions scenario, which predicted that the mean surface temperature would rise between 3.3 and 5.7 °C (5.9 and 10.2 °F) by 2100 based on the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions would continue to increase throughout the 21st century. The intermediate-emissions scenario, which assumed that emissions would stabilize by 2050 before declining gradually, projected an increase of between 2.1 and 3.5 °C (3.8 and 6.3 °F) by 2100.

Many climate scientists agree that significant societal, economic, and ecological damage would result if the global average temperature rose by more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) in such a short time. Such damage would include increased extinction of many plant and animal species, shifts in patterns of agriculture , and rising sea levels. By 2015 all but a few national governments had begun the process of instituting carbon reduction plans as part of the Paris Agreement , a treaty designed to help countries keep global warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above preindustrial levels in order to avoid the worst of the predicted effects. Whereas authors of the 2018 special report noted that should carbon emissions continue at their present rate, the increase in average near-surface air temperature would reach 1.5 °C sometime between 2030 and 2052, authors of the AR6 report suggested that this threshold would be reached by 2041 at the latest.

The AR6 report also noted that the global average sea level had risen by some 20 cm (7.9 inches) between 1901 and 2018 and that sea level rose faster in the second half of the 20th century than in the first half. It also predicted, again depending on a wide range of scenarios, that the global average sea level would rise by different amounts by 2100 relative to the 1995–2014 average. Under the report’s lowest-emission scenario, sea level would rise by 28–55 cm (11–21.7 inches), whereas, under the intermediate emissions scenario, sea level would rise by 44–76 cm (17.3–29.9 inches). The highest-emissions scenario suggested that sea level would rise by 63–101 cm (24.8–39.8 inches) by 2100.

The scenarios referred to above depend mainly on future concentrations of certain trace gases, called greenhouse gases , that have been injected into the lower atmosphere in increasing amounts through the burning of fossil fuels for industry, transportation , and residential uses. Modern global warming is the result of an increase in magnitude of the so-called greenhouse effect , a warming of Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere caused by the presence of water vapour , carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxides , and other greenhouse gases. In 2014 the IPCC first reported that concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides in the atmosphere surpassed those found in ice cores dating back 800,000 years.

Of all these gases, carbon dioxide is the most important, both for its role in the greenhouse effect and for its role in the human economy. It has been estimated that, at the beginning of the industrial age in the mid-18th century, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were roughly 280 parts per million (ppm). By the end of 2022 they had risen to 419 ppm, and, if fossil fuels continue to be burned at current rates, they are projected to reach 550 ppm by the mid-21st century—essentially, a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in 300 years.

A vigorous debate is in progress over the extent and seriousness of rising surface temperatures, the effects of past and future warming on human life, and the need for action to reduce future warming and deal with its consequences. This article provides an overview of the scientific background related to the subject of global warming. It considers the causes of rising near-surface air temperatures, the influencing factors, the process of climate research and forecasting, and the possible ecological and social impacts of rising temperatures. For an overview of the public policy developments related to global warming occurring since the mid-20th century, see global warming policy . For a detailed description of Earth’s climate, its processes, and the responses of living things to its changing nature, see climate . For additional background on how Earth’s climate has changed throughout geologic time , see climatic variation and change . For a full description of Earth’s gaseous envelope, within which climate change and global warming occur, see atmosphere .

ENCYCLOPEDIC ENTRY

Global warming.

The causes, effects, and complexities of global warming are important to understand so that we can fight for the health of our planet.

Earth Science, Climatology

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Ash spews from a coal-fueled power plant in New Johnsonville, Tennessee, United States.

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Global warming is the long-term warming of the planet’s overall temperature. Though this warming trend has been going on for a long time, its pace has significantly increased in the last hundred years due to the burning of fossil fuels . As the human population has increased, so has the volume of fossil fuels burned. Fossil fuels include coal, oil, and natural gas, and burning them causes what is known as the “greenhouse effect” in Earth’s atmosphere.

The greenhouse effect is when the sun’s rays penetrate the atmosphere, but when that heat is reflected off the surface cannot escape back into space. Gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels prevent the heat from leaving the atmosphere. These greenhouse gasses are carbon dioxide , chlorofluorocarbons, water vapor , methane , and nitrous oxide . The excess heat in the atmosphere has caused the average global temperature to rise overtime, otherwise known as global warming.

Global warming has presented another issue called climate change. Sometimes these phrases are used interchangeably, however, they are different. Climate change refers to changes in weather patterns and growing seasons around the world. It also refers to sea level rise caused by the expansion of warmer seas and melting ice sheets and glaciers . Global warming causes climate change, which poses a serious threat to life on Earth in the forms of widespread flooding and extreme weather. Scientists continue to study global warming and its impact on Earth.

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