historical hypothesis examples

Introduction to History: Creating a Hypothesis

• Research Skills
• Creating a Hypothesis
• Timelines & Chronology
• Primary & Secondary Sources
• Bias & Perspective

Source:  Markus Winkler  (2020)

Historians begin any historical inquiry by asking big questions. From these big questions, historians develop a hypothesis (a theory) about who, what, where and why certain events took place. These questions then help to frame the process of inquiry and act as a guide for the collection of evidence. Read through the resources below to learn more about creating a hypothesis.

• Developing research questions (Monash University, n.d.) This guide from Monash University takes you through the step by step process for creating a good research question.
• Creating a hypothesis (History Skills, n.d.) This article provides some examples of how to create a historical research hypothesis.
• Asking good questions (William Cronon, 2009, March 23) Developing good research questions is an essential first step of every research project, because good research questions focus your work and provide direction for your next steps. The purpose of this page is to help you learn how to create research questions from general topics, and to give you useful tips for refining your questions during the research process.

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• Last Updated: Apr 13, 2022 8:42 PM
• URL: https://library.norwood.vic.edu.au/introductiontohistory

A Step-by-Step Guide to Doing Historical Research [without getting hysterical!] In addition to being a scholarly investigation, research is a social activity intended to create new knowledge. Historical research is your informed response to the questions that you ask while examining the record of human experience. These questions may concern such elements as looking at an event or topic, examining events that lead to the event in question, social influences, key players, and other contextual information. This step-by-step guide progresses from an introduction to historical resources to information about how to identify a topic, craft a thesis and develop a research paper. Table of contents: The Range and Richness of Historical Sources Secondary Sources Primary Sources Historical Analysis What is it? Who, When, Where, What and Why: The Five "W"s Topic, Thesis, Sources Definition of Terms Choose a Topic Craft a Thesis Evaluate Thesis and Sources A Variety of Information Sources Take Efficient Notes Note Cards Thinking, Organizing, Researching Parenthetical Documentation Prepare a Works Cited Page Drafting, Revising, Rewriting, Rethinking For Further Reading: Works Cited Additional Links So you want to study history?! Tons of help and links Slatta Home Page Use the Writing and other links on the lefhand menu I. The Range and Richness of Historical Sources Back to Top Every period leaves traces, what historians call "sources" or evidence. Some are more credible or carry more weight than others; judging the differences is a vital skill developed by good historians. Sources vary in perspective, so knowing who created the information you are examining is vital. Anonymous doesn't make for a very compelling source. For example, an FBI report on the antiwar movement, prepared for U.S. President Richard Nixon, probably contained secrets that at the time were thought to have affected national security. It would not be usual, however, for a journalist's article about a campus riot, featured in a local newspaper, to leak top secret information. Which source would you read? It depends on your research topic. If you're studying how government officials portrayed student activists, you'll want to read the FBI report and many more documents from other government agencies such as the CIA and the National Security Council. If you're investigating contemporary opinion of pro-war and anti-war activists, local newspaper accounts provide a rich resource. You'd want to read a variety of newspapers to ensure you're covering a wide range of opinions (rural/urban, left/right, North/South, Soldier/Draft-dodger, etc). Historians classify sources into two major categories: primary and secondary sources. Secondary Sources Back to Top Definition: Secondary sources are created by someone who was either not present when the event occurred or removed from it in time. We use secondary sources for overview information, to familiarize ourselves with a topic, and compare that topic with other events in history. In refining a research topic, we often begin with secondary sources. This helps us identify gaps or conflicts in the existing scholarly literature that might prove promsing topics. Types: History books, encyclopedias, historical dictionaries, and academic (scholarly) articles are secondary sources. To help you determine the status of a given secondary source, see How to identify and nagivate scholarly literature . Examples: Historian Marilyn Young's (NYU) book about the Vietnam War is a secondary source. She did not participate in the war. Her study is not based on her personal experience but on the evidence she culled from a variety of sources she found in the United States and Vietnam. Primary Sources Back to Top Definition: Primary sources emanate from individuals or groups who participated in or witnessed an event and recorded that event during or immediately after the event. They include speeches, memoirs, diaries, letters, telegrams, emails, proclamations, government documents, and much more. Examples: A student activist during the war writing about protest activities has created a memoir. This would be a primary source because the information is based on her own involvement in the events she describes. Similarly, an antiwar speech is a primary source. So is the arrest record of student protesters. A newspaper editorial or article, reporting on a student demonstration is also a primary source. II. Historical Analysis What is it? Back to Top No matter what you read, whether it's a primary source or a secondary source, you want to know who authored the source (a trusted scholar? A controversial historian? A propagandist? A famous person? An ordinary individual?). "Author" refers to anyone who created information in any medium (film, sound, or text). You also need to know when it was written and the kind of audience the author intend to reach. You should also consider what you bring to the evidence that you examine. Are you inductively following a path of evidence, developing your interpretation based on the sources? Do you have an ax to grind? Did you begin your research deductively, with your mind made up before even seeing the evidence. Historians need to avoid the latter and emulate the former. To read more about the distinction, examine the difference between Intellectual Inquirers and Partisan Ideologues . In the study of history, perspective is everything. A letter written by a twenty- year old Vietnam War protestor will differ greatly from a letter written by a scholar of protest movements. Although the sentiment might be the same, the perspective and influences of these two authors will be worlds apart. Practicing the " 5 Ws " will avoid the confusion of the authority trap. Who, When, Where, What and Why: The Five "W"s Back to Top Historians accumulate evidence (information, including facts, stories, interpretations, opinions, statements, reports, etc.) from a variety of sources (primary and secondary). They must also verify that certain key pieces of information are corroborated by a number of people and sources ("the predonderance of evidence"). The historian poses the " 5 Ws " to every piece of information he examines: Who is the historical actor? When did the event take place? Where did it occur? What did it entail and why did it happen the way it did? The " 5 Ws " can also be used to evaluate a primary source. Who authored the work? When was it created? Where was it created, published, and disseminated? Why was it written (the intended audience), and what is the document about (what points is the author making)? If you know the answers to these five questions, you can analyze any document, and any primary source. The historian doesn't look for the truth, since this presumes there is only one true story. The historian tries to understand a number of competing viewpoints to form his or her own interpretation-- what constitutes the best explanation of what happened and why. By using as wide a range of primary source documents and secondary sources as possible, you will add depth and richness to your historical analysis. The more exposure you, the researcher, have to a number of different sources and differing view points, the more you have a balanced and complete view about a topic in history. This view will spark more questions and ultimately lead you into the quest to unravel more clues about your topic. You are ready to start assembling information for your research paper. III. Topic, Thesis, Sources Definition of Terms Back to Top Because your purpose is to create new knowledge while recognizing those scholars whose existing work has helped you in this pursuit, you are honor bound never to commit the following academic sins: Plagiarism: Literally "kidnapping," involving the use of someone else's words as if they were your own (Gibaldi 6). To avoid plagiarism you must document direct quotations, paraphrases, and original ideas not your own. Recycling: Rehashing material you already know thoroughly or, without your professor's permission, submitting a paper that you have completed for another course. Premature cognitive commitment: Academic jargon for deciding on a thesis too soon and then seeking information to serve that thesis rather than embarking on a genuine search for new knowledge. Choose a Topic Back to Top "Do not hunt for subjects, let them choose you, not you them." --Samuel Butler Choosing a topic is the first step in the pursuit of a thesis. Below is a logical progression from topic to thesis: Close reading of the primary text, aided by secondary sources Growing awareness of interesting qualities within the primary text Choosing a topic for research Asking productive questions that help explore and evaluate a topic Creating a research hypothesis Revising and refining a hypothesis to form a working thesis First, and most important, identify what qualities in the primary or secondary source pique your imagination and curiosity and send you on a search for answers. Bloom's taxonomy of cognitive levels provides a description of productive questions asked by critical thinkers. While the lower levels (knowledge, comprehension) are necessary to a good history essay, aspire to the upper three levels (analysis, synthesis, evaluation). Skimming reference works such as encyclopedias, books, critical essays and periodical articles can help you choose a topic that evolves into a hypothesis, which in turn may lead to a thesis. One approach to skimming involves reading the first paragraph of a secondary source to locate and evaluate the author's thesis. Then for a general idea of the work's organization and major ideas read the first and last sentence of each paragraph. Read the conclusion carefully, as it usually presents a summary (Barnet and Bedau 19). Craft a Thesis Back to Top Very often a chosen topic is too broad for focused research. You must revise it until you have a working hypothesis, that is, a statement of an idea or an approach with respect to the source that could form the basis for your thesis. Remember to not commit too soon to any one hypothesis. Use it as a divining rod or a first step that will take you to new information that may inspire you to revise your hypothesis. Be flexible. Give yourself time to explore possibilities. The hypothesis you create will mature and shift as you write and rewrite your paper. New questions will send you back to old and on to new material. Remember, this is the nature of research--it is more a spiraling or iterative activity than a linear one. Test your working hypothesis to be sure it is: broad enough to promise a variety of resources. narrow enough for you to research in depth. original enough to interest you and your readers. worthwhile enough to offer information and insights of substance "do-able"--sources are available to complete the research. Now it is time to craft your thesis, your revised and refined hypothesis. A thesis is a declarative sentence that: focuses on one well-defined idea makes an arguable assertion; it is capable of being supported prepares your readers for the body of your paper and foreshadows the conclusion. Evaluate Thesis and Sources Back to Top Like your hypothesis, your thesis is not carved in stone. You are in charge. If necessary, revise it during the research process. As you research, continue to evaluate both your thesis for practicality, originality, and promise as a search tool, and secondary sources for relevance and scholarliness. The following are questions to ask during the research process: Are there many journal articles and entire books devoted to the thesis, suggesting that the subject has been covered so thoroughly that there may be nothing new to say? Does the thesis lead to stimulating, new insights? Are appropriate sources available? Is there a variety of sources available so that the bibliography or works cited page will reflect different kinds of sources? Which sources are too broad for my thesis? Which resources are too narrow? Who is the author of the secondary source? Does the critic's background suggest that he/she is qualified? After crafting a thesis, consider one of the following two approaches to writing a research paper: Excited about your thesis and eager to begin? Return to the primary or secondary source to find support for your thesis. Organize ideas and begin writing your first draft. After writing the first draft, have it reviewed by your peers and your instructor. Ponder their suggestions and return to the sources to answer still-open questions. Document facts and opinions from secondary sources. Remember, secondary sources can never substitute for primary sources. Confused about where to start? Use your thesis to guide you to primary and secondary sources. Secondary sources can help you clarify your position and find a direction for your paper. Keep a working bibliography. You may not use all the sources you record, but you cannot be sure which ones you will eventually discard. Create a working outline as you research. This outline will, of course, change as you delve more deeply into your subject. A Variety of Information Sources Back to Top "A mind that is stretched to a new idea never returns to its original dimension." --Oliver Wendell Holmes Your thesis and your working outline are the primary compasses that will help you navigate the variety of sources available. In "Introduction to the Library" (5-6) the MLA Handbook for Writers of Research Papers suggests you become familiar with the library you will be using by: taking a tour or enrolling for a brief introductory lecture referring to the library's publications describing its resources introducing yourself and your project to the reference librarian The MLA Handbook also lists guides for the use of libraries (5), including: Jean Key Gates, Guide to the Use of Libraries and Information Sources (7th ed., New York: McGraw, 1994). Thomas Mann, A Guide to Library Research Methods (New York: Oxford UP, 1987). Online Central Catalog Most libraries have their holdings listed on a computer. The online catalog may offer Internet sites, Web pages and databases that relate to the university's curriculum. It may also include academic journals and online reference books. Below are three search techniques commonly used online: Index Search: Although online catalogs may differ slightly from library to library, the most common listings are by: Subject Search: Enter the author's name for books and article written about the author. Author Search: Enter an author's name for works written by the author, including collections of essays the author may have written about his/her own works. Title Search: Enter a title for the screen to list all the books the library carries with that title. Key Word Search/Full-text Search: A one-word search, e.g., 'Kennedy,' will produce an overwhelming number of sources, as it will call up any entry that includes the name 'Kennedy.' To focus more narrowly on your subject, add one or more key words, e.g., "John Kennedy, Peace Corps." Use precise key words. Boolean Search: Boolean Search techniques use words such as "and," "or," and "not," which clarify the relationship between key words, thus narrowing the search. Take Efficient Notes Back to Top Keeping complete and accurate bibliography and note cards during the research process is a time (and sanity) saving practice. If you have ever needed a book or pages within a book, only to discover that an earlier researcher has failed to return it or torn pages from your source, you understand the need to take good notes. Every researcher has a favorite method for taking notes. Here are some suggestions-- customize one of them for your own use. Bibliography cards There may be far more books and articles listed than you have time to read, so be selective when choosing a reference. Take information from works that clearly relate to your thesis, remembering that you may not use them all. Use a smaller or a different color card from the one used for taking notes. Write a bibliography card for every source. Number the bibliography cards. On the note cards, use the number rather than the author's name and the title. It's faster. Another method for recording a working bibliography, of course, is to create your own database. Adding, removing, and alphabetizing titles is a simple process. Be sure to save often and to create a back-up file. A bibliography card should include all the information a reader needs to locate that particular source for further study. Most of the information required for a book entry (Gibaldi 112): Author's name Title of a part of the book [preface, chapter titles, etc.] Title of the book Name of the editor, translator, or compiler Edition used Number(s) of the volume(s) used Name of the series Place of publication, name of the publisher, and date of publication Page numbers Supplementary bibliographic information and annotations Most of the information required for an article in a periodical (Gibaldi 141): Author's name Title of the article Name of the periodical Series number or name (if relevant) Volume number (for a scholarly journal) Issue number (if needed) Date of publication Page numbers Supplementary information For information on how to cite other sources refer to your So you want to study history page . Note Cards Back to Top Take notes in ink on either uniform note cards (3x5, 4x6, etc.) or uniform slips of paper. Devote each note card to a single topic identified at the top. Write only on one side. Later, you may want to use the back to add notes or personal observations. Include a topical heading for each card. Include the number of the page(s) where you found the information. You will want the page number(s) later for documentation, and you may also want page number(s)to verify your notes. Most novice researchers write down too much. Condense. Abbreviate. You are striving for substance, not quantity. Quote directly from primary sources--but the "meat," not everything. Suggestions for condensing information: Summary: A summary is intended to provide the gist of an essay. Do not weave in the author's choice phrases. Read the information first and then condense the main points in your own words. This practice will help you avoid the copying that leads to plagiarism. Summarizing also helps you both analyze the text you are reading and evaluate its strengths and weaknesses (Barnet and Bedau 13). Outline: Use to identify a series of points. Paraphrase, except for key primary source quotations. Never quote directly from a secondary source, unless the precise wording is essential to your argument. Simplify the language and list the ideas in the same order. A paraphrase is as long as the original. Paraphrasing is helpful when you are struggling with a particularly difficult passage. Be sure to jot down your own insights or flashes of brilliance. Ralph Waldo Emerson warns you to "Look sharply after your thoughts. They come unlooked for, like a new bird seen on your trees, and, if you turn to your usual task, disappear...." To differentiate these insights from those of the source you are reading, initial them as your own. (When the following examples of note cards include the researcher's insights, they will be followed by the initials N. R.) When you have finished researching your thesis and you are ready to write your paper, organize your cards according to topic. Notecards make it easy to shuffle and organize your source information on a table-- or across the floor. Maintain your working outline that includes the note card headings and explores a logical order for presenting them in your paper. IV. Begin Thinking, Researching, Organizing Back to Top Don't be too sequential. Researching, writing, revising is a complex interactive process. Start writing as soon as possible! "The best antidote to writer's block is--to write." (Klauser 15). However, you still feel overwhelmed and are staring at a blank page, you are not alone. Many students find writing the first sentence to be the most daunting part of the entire research process. Be creative. Cluster (Rico 28-49). Clustering is a form of brainstorming. Sometimes called a web, the cluster forms a design that may suggest a natural organization for a paper. Here's a graphical depiction of brainstorming . Like a sun, the generating idea or topic lies at the center of the web. From it radiate words, phrases, sentences and images that in turn attract other words, phrases, sentences and images. Put another way--stay focused. Start with your outline. If clustering is not a technique that works for you, turn to the working outline you created during the research process. Use the outline view of your word processor. If you have not already done so, group your note cards according to topic headings. Compare them to your outline's major points. If necessary, change the outline to correspond with the headings on the note cards. If any area seems weak because of a scarcity of facts or opinions, return to your primary and/or secondary sources for more information or consider deleting that heading. Use your outline to provide balance in your essay. Each major topic should have approximately the same amount of information. Once you have written a working outline, consider two different methods for organizing it. Deduction: A process of development that moves from the general to the specific. You may use this approach to present your findings. However, as noted above, your research and interpretive process should be inductive. Deduction is the most commonly used form of organization for a research paper. The thesis statement is the generalization that leads to the specific support provided by primary and secondary sources. The thesis is stated early in the paper. The body of the paper then proceeds to provide the facts, examples, and analogies that flow logically from that thesis. The thesis contains key words that are reflected in the outline. These key words become a unifying element throughout the paper, as they reappear in the detailed paragraphs that support and develop the thesis. The conclusion of the paper circles back to the thesis, which is now far more meaningful because of the deductive development that supports it. Chronological order A process that follows a traditional time line or sequence of events. A chronological organization is useful for a paper that explores cause and effect. Parenthetical Documentation Back to Top The Works Cited page, a list of primary and secondary sources, is not sufficient documentation to acknowledge the ideas, facts, and opinions you have included within your text. The MLA Handbook for Writers of Research Papers describes an efficient parenthetical style of documentation to be used within the body of your paper. Guidelines for parenthetical documentation: "References to the text must clearly point to specific sources in the list of works cited" (Gibaldi 184). Try to use parenthetical documentation as little as possible. For example, when you cite an entire work, it is preferable to include the author's name in the text. The author's last name followed by the page number is usually enough for an accurate identification of the source in the works cited list. These examples illustrate the most common kinds of documentation. Documenting a quotation: Ex. "The separation from the personal mother is a particularly intense process for a daughter because she has to separate from the one who is the same as herself" (Murdock 17). She may feel abandoned and angry. Note: The author of The Heroine's Journey is listed under Works Cited by the author's name, reversed--Murdock, Maureen. Quoted material is found on page 17 of that book. Parenthetical documentation is after the quotation mark and before the period. Documenting a paraphrase: Ex. In fairy tales a woman who holds the princess captive or who abandons her often needs to be killed (18). Note: The second paraphrase is also from Murdock's book The Heroine's Journey. It is not, however, necessary to repeat the author's name if no other documentation interrupts the two. If the works cited page lists more than one work by the same author, include within the parentheses an abbreviated form of the appropriate title. You may, of course, include the title in your sentence, making it unnecessary to add an abbreviated title in the citation. > Prepare a Works Cited Page Back to Top There are a variety of titles for the page that lists primary and secondary sources (Gibaldi 106-107). A Works Cited page lists those works you have cited within the body of your paper. The reader need only refer to it for the necessary information required for further independent research. Bibliography means literally a description of books. Because your research may involve the use of periodicals, films, art works, photographs, etc. "Works Cited" is a more precise descriptive term than bibliography. An Annotated Bibliography or Annotated Works Cited page offers brief critiques and descriptions of the works listed. A Works Consulted page lists those works you have used but not cited. Avoid using this format. As with other elements of a research paper there are specific guidelines for the placement and the appearance of the Works Cited page. The following guidelines comply with MLA style: The Work Cited page is placed at the end of your paper and numbered consecutively with the body of your paper. Center the title and place it one inch from the top of your page. Do not quote or underline the title. Double space the entire page, both within and between entries. The entries are arranged alphabetically by the author's last name or by the title of the article or book being cited. If the title begins with an article (a, an, the) alphabetize by the next word. If you cite two or more works by the same author, list the titles in alphabetical order. Begin every entry after the first with three hyphens followed by a period. All entries begin at the left margin but subsequent lines are indented five spaces. Be sure that each entry cited on the Works Cited page corresponds to a specific citation within your paper. Refer to the the MLA Handbook for Writers of Research Papers (104- 182) for detailed descriptions of Work Cited entries. Citing sources from online databases is a relatively new phenomenon. Make sure to ask your professor about citing these sources and which style to use. V. Draft, Revise, Rewrite, Rethink Back to Top "There are days when the result is so bad that no fewer than five revisions are required. In contrast, when I'm greatly inspired, only four revisions are needed." --John Kenneth Galbraith Try freewriting your first draft. Freewriting is a discovery process during which the writer freely explores a topic. Let your creative juices flow. In Writing without Teachers , Peter Elbow asserts that "[a]lmost everybody interposes a massive and complicated series of editings between the time words start to be born into consciousness and when they finally come off the end of the pencil or typewriter [or word processor] onto the page" (5). Do not let your internal judge interfere with this first draft. Creating and revising are two very different functions. Don't confuse them! If you stop to check spelling, punctuation, or grammar, you disrupt the flow of creative energy. Create; then fix it later. When material you have researched comes easily to mind, include it. Add a quick citation, one you can come back to later to check for form, and get on with your discovery. In subsequent drafts, focus on creating an essay that flows smoothly, supports fully, and speaks clearly and interestingly. Add style to substance. Create a smooth flow of words, ideas and paragraphs. Rearrange paragraphs for a logical progression of information. Transition is essential if you want your reader to follow you smoothly from introduction to conclusion. Transitional words and phrases stitch your ideas together; they provide coherence within the essay. External transition: Words and phrases that are added to a sentence as overt signs of transition are obvious and effective, but should not be overused, as they may draw attention to themselves and away from ideas. Examples of external transition are "however," "then," "next," "therefore." "first," "moreover," and "on the other hand." Internal transition is more subtle. Key words in the introduction become golden threads when they appear in the paper's body and conclusion. When the writer hears a key word repeated too often, however, she/he replaces it with a synonym or a pronoun. Below are examples of internal transition. Transitional sentences create a logical flow from paragraph to paragraph. Iclude individual words, phrases, or clauses that refer to previous ideas and that point ahead to new ones. They are usually placed at the end or at the beginning of a paragraph. A transitional paragraph conducts your reader from one part of the paper to another. It may be only a few sentences long. Each paragraph of the body of the paper should contain adequate support for its one governing idea. Speak/write clearly, in your own voice. Tone: The paper's tone, whether formal, ironic, or humorous, should be appropriate for the audience and the subject. Voice: Keep you language honest. Your paper should sound like you. Understand, paraphrase, absorb, and express in your own words the information you have researched. Avoid phony language. Sentence formation: When you polish your sentences, read them aloud for word choice and word placement. Be concise. Strunk and White in The Elements of Style advise the writer to "omit needless words" (23). First, however, you must recognize them. Keep yourself and your reader interested. In fact, Strunk's 1918 writing advice is still well worth pondering. First, deliver on your promises. Be sure the body of your paper fulfills the promise of the introduction. Avoid the obvious. Offer new insights. Reveal the unexpected. Have you crafted your conclusion as carefully as you have your introduction? Conclusions are not merely the repetition of your thesis. The conclusion of a research paper is a synthesis of the information presented in the body. Your research has led you to conclusions and opinions that have helped you understand your thesis more deeply and more clearly. Lift your reader to the full level of understanding that you have achieved. Revision means "to look again." Find a peer reader to read your paper with you present. Or, visit your college or university's writing lab. Guide your reader's responses by asking specific questions. Are you unsure of the logical order of your paragraphs? Do you want to know whether you have supported all opinions adequately? Are you concerned about punctuation or grammar? Ask that these issues be addressed. You are in charge. Here are some techniques that may prove helpful when you are revising alone or with a reader. When you edit for spelling errors read the sentences backwards. This procedure will help you look closely at individual words. Always read your paper aloud. Hearing your own words puts them in a new light. Listen to the flow of ideas and of language. Decide whether or not the voice sounds honest and the tone is appropriate to the purpose of the paper and to your audience. Listen for awkward or lumpy wording. Find the one right word, Eliminate needless words. Combine sentences. Kill the passive voice. Eliminate was/were/is/are constructions. They're lame and anti-historical. Be ruthless. If an idea doesn't serve your thesis, banish it, even if it's one of your favorite bits of prose. In the margins, write the major topic of each paragraph. By outlining after you have written the paper, you are once again evaluating your paper's organization. OK, you've got the process down. Now execute! And enjoy! It's not everyday that you get to make history. VI. For Further Reading: Works Cited Back to Top Barnet, Sylvan, and Hugo Bedau. Critical Thinking, Reading, and Writing: A Brief Guide to Argument. Boston: Bedford, 1993. Brent, Doug. Reading as Rhetorical Invention: Knowledge,Persuasion and the Teaching of Research-Based Writing. Urbana: NCTE, 1992. Elbow, Peter. Writing without Teachers. New York: Oxford University Press, 1973. Gibladi, Joseph. MLA Handbook for Writers of Research Papers. 4th ed. New York: Modern Language Association, 1995. Horvitz, Deborah. "Nameless Ghosts: Possession and Dispossession in Beloved." Studies in American Fiction , Vol. 17, No. 2, Autum, 1989, pp. 157-167. Republished in the Literature Research Center. Gale Group. (1 January 1999). Klauser, Henriette Anne. Writing on Both Sides of the Brain: Breakthrough Techniques for People Who Write. Philadelphia: Harper, 1986. Rico, Gabriele Lusser. Writing the Natural Way: Using Right Brain Techniques to Release Your Expressive Powers. Los Angeles: Houghton, 1983. Sorenson, Sharon. The Research Paper: A Contemporary Approach. New York: AMSCO, 1994. Strunk, William, Jr., and E. B. White. The Elements of Style. 3rd ed. New York: MacMillan, 1979. Back to Top This guide adapted from materials published by Thomson Gale, publishers. For free resources, including a generic guide to writing term papers, see the Gale.com website , which also includes product information for schools.

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How to create a hypothesis for a historical research? [closed]

When writing a dissertation or a thesis about history, students and researchers are asked to state a problem and a hypothesis for that problem. My question is how to state a problem and a hypothesis for a historical event where we all know that history never changes and that it is restricted to already given facts? Supposing that someone is writing a thesis about the Battle of Waterloo ...All the info about the Battle of Waterloo are the same everywhere, what can this researcher add?? Nothing actually, he/she is going to end up summarizing a dozen of books about it without bringing anything new to the topic (not because he/she cannot but because it's history). What kind of problem statement that one can write about a Battle, a king, a conflict, ... I mean how can someone see problems in history and give hypotheses for them?? Please illustrate if you can

• research-process
• methodology

• 3 Why was German unification a peaceful process and not a violent revolution cum annexation? Can you answer this by just stating the facts? Which facts would you consider relevant? How would you ascertain their truthfulness? –  henning no longer feeds AI Commented Apr 8, 2019 at 17:26
• According to u, how a question like yours could be answered? Thnx! –  Maria_mimi Commented Apr 8, 2019 at 17:36
• 1 This seems to be a discussion to have with your advisor. –  Solar Mike Commented Apr 8, 2019 at 19:31

This sounds like trying to force a restricted view of the scientific method to research in history. One learns during many years of studying history how research in history is performed, what is expected, what constitutes verification and evidence, just as one learns during many years of studying mathematics how research in mathematics is performed, what constitutes proof, the accepted standards of rigor, etc. And similar things can be said about Physics, Computer Engineering, Linguistics, Philosophy, Comparative Literature, Botany, Aerospace Engineering, Archaeology, etc.

Here's one way to at least superficially research your question without going through years of study in history. First, search for "Battle of Waterloo" (without quotes) in the title field at the ProQuest search page. Then google the titles of some of the (over 40) results to see whether freely available copies can be found. Then, for the theses you are able to get copies of, look over the abstract and/or introduction and/or summary, using the table of contents to locate these if you can't immediately find them.

When I did this, the 7th listed item was Waterloo in Myth and Memory: The Battles of Waterloo 1815-1915 (2013), and its abstract begins with the following:

This work examines memory of the Battle of Waterloo. There have been hundreds of works on the Battle of Waterloo but what this work does is to examine how works in several genres change over time. The memory of Waterloo was not static but changed several times over and over again. The myth of Waterloo was created, challenged and renegotiated several times.

• Thnx a million! –  Maria_mimi Commented Apr 9, 2019 at 6:29

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• > An Introduction to the Historiography of Science
• > Hypothetical history

Book contents

• Frontmatter
• 1 Aspects of the development of the history of science
• 2 History of science
• 3 Objectives and justification
• 4 Elements of theory of history
• 5 Objectivity in history
• 6 Explanations
• 7 Hypothetical history
• 8 Structure and organization
• 9 Anachronical and diachronical history of science
• 10 Ideology and myths in the history of science
• 12 Evaluation of source materials
• 13 Scientists' histories
• 14 Experimental history of science
• 15 The biographical approach
• 16 Prosopography
• 17 Scientometric historiography
• Bibliography

7 - Hypothetical history

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 November 2009

Because of their placement in the past, historical occurrences cannot be re-created or manipulated. For this reason hypothetical or contrary-to-fact statements are often regarded as unacceptable in historical works. Thus Joseph Needham says: ‘Whether a given fact would have got itself discovered by some other person than the historical discoverer had he not lived it is certainly profitless and probably meaningless to enquire.’

A contrary-to-fact statement is a statement based on an assumption that is known to be factually false, in other words, that cannot be reconciled with the known facts. Such statements are also called counterfactual statements. They contain the conditional ‘if’ followed by the false statement P. ‘If X had not been the case, Y would not have taken place’ is a counterfactual statement in so far as X actually was the case (irrespective of whether Y occurred or not). X might, for example, be ‘Maxwell formulated the theory of electrodynamics’ and Y might be ‘the radio was invented’. In a certain sense the statement can be said to be a hypothetical statement about the past; but with the difference that the premise of the hypothesis (non-X) is known to be false. Hypotheses are normally statements whose truth value is not known, but which are used heuristically in order to deduce testable statements that will then support or weaken the hypothesis.

We cannot know whether the radio would have been discovered had Maxwell never lived; for we cannot remake the historical situation at the time of Maxwell without taking into consideration the fact that Maxwell did actually live.

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• Hypothetical history
• Helge S. Kragh
• Book: An Introduction to the Historiography of Science
• Online publication: 30 November 2009
• Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511622434.008

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• How it works

Historical Research – A Guide Based on its Uses & Steps

Published by Alvin Nicolas at August 16th, 2021 , Revised On August 29, 2023

History is a study of past incidents, and it’s different from natural science. In natural science, researchers prefer direct observations. Whereas in historical research, a researcher collects, analyses the information to understand, describe, and explain the events that occurred in the past.

They aim to test the truthfulness of the observations made by others. Historical researchers try to find out what happened exactly during a certain period of time as accurately and as closely as possible. It does not allow any manipulation or control of  variables .

When to Use the Historical Research Method?

You can use historical research method to:

• Uncover the unknown fact.
• Answer questions
• Identify the association between the past and present.
• Understand the culture based on past experiences..
• Record and evaluate the contributions of individuals, organisations, and institutes.

How to Conduct Historical Research?

Historical research involves the following steps:

• Select the Research Topic
• Collect the Data
• Analyse the Data
• Criticism of Data
• Present your Findings

Tips to Collect Data

Step 1 – select the research topic.

If you want to conduct historical research, it’s essential to select a research topic before beginning your research. You can follow these tips while choosing a topic and  developing a research question .

• Consider your previous study as your previous knowledge and data can make your research enjoyable and comfortable for you.
• List your interests and focus on the current events to find a promising question.
• Take notes of regular activities and consider your personal experiences on a specific topic.
• Develop a question using your research topic.
• Explore your research question by asking yourself when? Why? How

Step 2- Collect the Data

It is essential to collect data and facts about the research question to get reliable outcomes. You need to select an appropriate instrument for  data collection . Historical research includes two sources of data collection, such as primary and secondary sources.

Primary Sources

Primary sources  are the original first-hand resources such as documents, oral or written records, witnesses to a fact, etc. These are of two types, such as:

Conscious Information : It’s a type of information recorded and restored consciously in the form of written, oral documents, or the actual witnesses of the incident that occurred in the past.

It includes the following sources:

Records Government documents Images autobiographies letters

Constitiutions Court-decisions Diaries Audios Videos

Wills Declarations Licenses Reports

Unconscious information : It’s a type of information restored in the form of remains or relics.

It includes information in the following forms:

Fossils Tools Weapons Household articles Clothes or any belonging of humans

Language literature Artifacts Abandoned places Monuments

Secondary Sources

Sometimes it’s impossible to access primary sources, and researchers rely on secondary sources to obtain information for their research. 

It includes:

• Publications
• Periodicals
• Encyclopedia

Step 3 – Analyse the Data

After collecting the information, you need to analyse it. You can use data analysis methods  like 

• Thematic analysis
• Coding system
• Theoretical model ( Researchers use multiple theories to explain a specific phenomenon, situations, and behavior types.)
• Quantitative data to validate

Step 4 – Criticism of Data

Data criticism is a process used for identifying the validity and reliability of the collected data. It’s of two types such as:

External Criticism :

It aims at identifying the external features of the data such as signature, handwriting, language, nature, spelling, etc., of the documents. It also involves the physical and chemical tests of paper, paint, ink, metal cloth, or any collected object.

Internal Criticism :

It aims at identifying the meaning and reliability of the data. It focuses on the errors, printing, translation, omission, additions in the documents. The researchers should use both external and internal criticism to ensure the validity of the data.

Step 5 – Present your Findings

While presenting the  findings of your research , you need to ensure that you have met the objectives of your research or not. Historical material can be organised based on the theme and topic, and it’s known as thematic and topical arrangement. You can follow these tips while writing your research paper :

Build Arguments and Narrative

Your research aims not just to collect information as these are the raw materials of research. You need to build a strong argument and narrate the details of past events or incidents based on your findings. 

Organise your Argument

You can review the literature and other researchers’ contributions to the topic you’ve chosen to enhance your thinking and argument.

Proofread, Revise and Edit

After putting your findings on a paper, you need to proofread it to weed out the errors, rewrite it to improve, and edit it thoroughly before submitting it.

Are you looking for professional research writing services?

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In this world of technology, many people rely on Google to find out any information. All you have to do is enter a few keywords and sit back. You’ll find several relevant results onscreen.

It’s an effective and quick way of gathering information. Sometimes historical documents are not accessible to everyone online, and you need to visit traditional libraries to find out historical treasures. It will help you explore your knowledge along with data collection. 

You can visit historical places, conduct interviews, review literature, and access  primary and secondary  data sources such as books, newspapers, publications, documents, etc. You can take notes while collecting the information as it helps to organise the data accurately.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Historical Research

Advantages	Disadvantages
It is easy to calculate and understand the obtained information. It is applied to various time periods based on industry custom. It helps in understanding current educational practices, theories, and problems based on past experiences. It helps in determining when and how a specific incident exactly happened in the past.	A researcher cannot control or manipulate the variables. It’s time-consuming Researchers cannot affect past incidents. Historical Researchers need to rely on the available data most excessively on secondary data. Researchers cannot conduct surveys and experiments in the past.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the initial steps to perform historical research.

Initial steps for historical research:

• Define research scope and period.
• Gather background knowledge.
• Identify primary and secondary sources.
• Develop research questions.
• Plan research approach.
• Begin data collection and analysis.

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Sampling methods are used to to draw valid conclusions about a large community, organization or group of people, but they are based on evidence and reasoning.

Content analysis is used to identify specific words, patterns, concepts, themes, phrases, or sentences within the content in the recorded communication.

The authenticity of dissertation is largely influenced by the research method employed. Here we present the most notable research methods for dissertation.

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How to Write a Great Hypothesis

Hypothesis Definition, Format, Examples, and Tips

Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

Amy Morin, LCSW, is a psychotherapist and international bestselling author. Her books, including "13 Things Mentally Strong People Don't Do," have been translated into more than 40 languages. Her TEDx talk,  "The Secret of Becoming Mentally Strong," is one of the most viewed talks of all time.

Verywell / Alex Dos Diaz

• The Scientific Method

Hypothesis Format

Falsifiability of a hypothesis.

• Operationalization

Hypothesis Types

Hypotheses examples.

• Collecting Data

A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. It is a preliminary answer to your question that helps guide the research process.

Consider a study designed to examine the relationship between sleep deprivation and test performance. The hypothesis might be: "This study is designed to assess the hypothesis that sleep-deprived people will perform worse on a test than individuals who are not sleep-deprived."

At a Glance

A hypothesis is crucial to scientific research because it offers a clear direction for what the researchers are looking to find. This allows them to design experiments to test their predictions and add to our scientific knowledge about the world. This article explores how a hypothesis is used in psychology research, how to write a good hypothesis, and the different types of hypotheses you might use.

The Hypothesis in the Scientific Method

In the scientific method , whether it involves research in psychology, biology, or some other area, a hypothesis represents what the researchers think will happen in an experiment. The scientific method involves the following steps:

• Forming a question
• Performing background research
• Creating a hypothesis
• Designing an experiment
• Collecting data
• Analyzing the results
• Drawing conclusions
• Communicating the results

The hypothesis is a prediction, but it involves more than a guess. Most of the time, the hypothesis begins with a question which is then explored through background research. At this point, researchers then begin to develop a testable hypothesis.

Unless you are creating an exploratory study, your hypothesis should always explain what you  expect  to happen.

In a study exploring the effects of a particular drug, the hypothesis might be that researchers expect the drug to have some type of effect on the symptoms of a specific illness. In psychology, the hypothesis might focus on how a certain aspect of the environment might influence a particular behavior.

Remember, a hypothesis does not have to be correct. While the hypothesis predicts what the researchers expect to see, the goal of the research is to determine whether this guess is right or wrong. When conducting an experiment, researchers might explore numerous factors to determine which ones might contribute to the ultimate outcome.

In many cases, researchers may find that the results of an experiment  do not  support the original hypothesis. When writing up these results, the researchers might suggest other options that should be explored in future studies.

In many cases, researchers might draw a hypothesis from a specific theory or build on previous research. For example, prior research has shown that stress can impact the immune system. So a researcher might hypothesize: "People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than people who have low-stress levels."

In other instances, researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom. "Birds of a feather flock together" is one example of folk adage that a psychologist might try to investigate. The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that "People tend to select romantic partners who are similar to them in interests and educational level."

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

So how do you write a good hypothesis? When trying to come up with a hypothesis for your research or experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

• Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?
• Can your hypothesis be tested?
• Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing background research. Once you have completed a literature review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to the discussion section in the  journal articles you read . Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

How to Formulate a Good Hypothesis

To form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

• Collect as many observations about a topic or problem as you can.
• Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
• Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
• After you have developed some possible hypotheses, think of ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

In the scientific method ,  falsifiability is an important part of any valid hypothesis. In order to test a claim scientifically, it must be possible that the claim could be proven false.

Students sometimes confuse the idea of falsifiability with the idea that it means that something is false, which is not the case. What falsifiability means is that  if  something was false, then it is possible to demonstrate that it is false.

One of the hallmarks of pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

The Importance of Operational Definitions

A variable is a factor or element that can be changed and manipulated in ways that are observable and measurable. However, the researcher must also define how the variable will be manipulated and measured in the study.

Operational definitions are specific definitions for all relevant factors in a study. This process helps make vague or ambiguous concepts detailed and measurable.

For example, a researcher might operationally define the variable " test anxiety " as the results of a self-report measure of anxiety experienced during an exam. A "study habits" variable might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

These precise descriptions are important because many things can be measured in various ways. Clearly defining these variables and how they are measured helps ensure that other researchers can replicate your results.

Replicability

One of the basic principles of any type of scientific research is that the results must be replicable.

Replication means repeating an experiment in the same way to produce the same results. By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated, other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define. For example, how would you operationally define a variable such as aggression ? For obvious ethical reasons, researchers cannot create a situation in which a person behaves aggressively toward others.

To measure this variable, the researcher must devise a measurement that assesses aggressive behavior without harming others. The researcher might utilize a simulated task to measure aggressiveness in this situation.

Hypothesis Checklist

• Does your hypothesis focus on something that you can actually test?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate the variables?
• Can your hypothesis be tested without violating ethical standards?

The hypothesis you use will depend on what you are investigating and hoping to find. Some of the main types of hypotheses that you might use include:

• Simple hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests there is a relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable.
• Complex hypothesis : This type suggests a relationship between three or more variables, such as two independent and dependent variables.
• Null hypothesis : This hypothesis suggests no relationship exists between two or more variables.
• Alternative hypothesis : This hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.
• Statistical hypothesis : This hypothesis uses statistical analysis to evaluate a representative population sample and then generalizes the findings to the larger group.
• Logical hypothesis : This hypothesis assumes a relationship between variables without collecting data or evidence.

A hypothesis often follows a basic format of "If {this happens} then {this will happen}." One way to structure your hypothesis is to describe what will happen to the  dependent variable  if you change the  independent variable .

The basic format might be: "If {these changes are made to a certain independent variable}, then we will observe {a change in a specific dependent variable}."

A few examples of simple hypotheses:

• "Students who eat breakfast will perform better on a math exam than students who do not eat breakfast."
• "Students who experience test anxiety before an English exam will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety."​
• "Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone."
• "Children who receive a new reading intervention will have higher reading scores than students who do not receive the intervention."

Examples of a complex hypothesis include:

• "People with high-sugar diets and sedentary activity levels are more likely to develop depression."
• "Younger people who are regularly exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces."

Examples of a null hypothesis include:

• "There is no difference in anxiety levels between people who take St. John's wort supplements and those who do not."
• "There is no difference in scores on a memory recall task between children and adults."
• "There is no difference in aggression levels between children who play first-person shooter games and those who do not."

Examples of an alternative hypothesis:

• "People who take St. John's wort supplements will have less anxiety than those who do not."
• "Adults will perform better on a memory task than children."
• "Children who play first-person shooter games will show higher levels of aggression than children who do not." 

Collecting Data on Your Hypothesis

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis, the next step is to select a research design and start collecting data. The research method depends largely on exactly what they are studying. There are two basic types of research methods: descriptive research and experimental research.

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as  case studies ,  naturalistic observations , and surveys are often used when  conducting an experiment is difficult or impossible. These methods are best used to describe different aspects of a behavior or psychological phenomenon.

Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods, a  correlational study  can examine how the variables are related. This research method might be used to investigate a hypothesis that is difficult to test experimentally.

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods  are used to demonstrate causal relationships between variables. In an experiment, the researcher systematically manipulates a variable of interest (known as the independent variable) and measures the effect on another variable (known as the dependent variable).

Unlike correlational studies, which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables, experimental methods can be used to determine the actual nature of the relationship—whether changes in one variable actually  cause  another to change.

The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration. It represents what researchers expect to find in a study or experiment. In situations where the hypothesis is unsupported by the research, the research still has value. Such research helps us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one another. It also helps us develop new hypotheses that can then be tested in the future.

Thompson WH, Skau S. On the scope of scientific hypotheses .  R Soc Open Sci . 2023;10(8):230607. doi:10.1098/rsos.230607

Taran S, Adhikari NKJ, Fan E. Falsifiability in medicine: what clinicians can learn from Karl Popper [published correction appears in Intensive Care Med. 2021 Jun 17;:].  Intensive Care Med . 2021;47(9):1054-1056. doi:10.1007/s00134-021-06432-z

Eyler AA. Research Methods for Public Health . 1st ed. Springer Publishing Company; 2020. doi:10.1891/9780826182067.0004

Nosek BA, Errington TM. What is replication ?  PLoS Biol . 2020;18(3):e3000691. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000691

Aggarwal R, Ranganathan P. Study designs: Part 2 - Descriptive studies .  Perspect Clin Res . 2019;10(1):34-36. doi:10.4103/picr.PICR_154_18

Nevid J. Psychology: Concepts and Applications. Wadworth, 2013.

By Kendra Cherry, MSEd Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

Historical Hypothesis Testing

A pyx like these is used to store coins collected throughout the year for the �Trial of the Pyx�.

Among innumerable Footsteps of Divine Providence to be found in the Works of Nature, there is a very remarkable one to be observed in the exact Balance that is maintained, between the Numbers of Men and Women; for by this means it is provided, that the Species may never fail, nor perish, since every Male may have its Female, and of a proportionable Age. This Equality of Males and Females is not the Effect of Chance but Divine Providence, working for a good End, which I thus demonstrate.

We must observe that the external Accidents to which are Males subject (who must seek their Food with danger) do make a great havock of them, and that this loss exceeds far that of the other Sex�To repair that Loss, providence Nature, by the Disposal of its wife Creator, brings forth more Males than Female; and that in almost a constant proportion. (Arbuthnot 1710, p.188)

Though his was the first exact test of significance, characteristic of the modern period, �Student� did not go so far as to claim that he was introducing a new mode of reasoning, and perhaps would have been unwilling to believe it had he been told so; for he was only applying his own good sense to a logical situation with which he was quite familiar. (Fisher 1973, p. 84).

Four Amazing Examples of Historical Science in Action

Hypotheses about the past can generate predictions that can be tested against observations in the present. And conversely, present-day observations and experiments spur new hypotheses about the past.

A common critique aimed at mainstream science is based on drawing a sharp distinction between “observational” and “historical” science. Observational science is presented as more objective and much less worldview-dependent than historical science. This distinction is employed by young-earth creationists (YECs) in attempts to show that they accept science, while still rejecting the scientific consensus on natural history. However,  as many have pointed out before me , “observational” vs. “historical” science is a misleading distinction. Hypotheses about the past can generate predictions that can be tested against observations in the present. And conversely, present-day observations and experiments spur new hypotheses about the past. In this way, observation, hypothesis, and prediction exist in a perpetual “feedback loop,” giving us greater and greater clarity about the course of natural history.

In this post, I discuss four remarkable examples of scientific hypotheses about the past that have been confirmed in remarkable ways by contemporary observations, supporting the scientific consensus on natural history.

Astronomy: Cosmic radiation and the Big Bang

Soon after Einstein laid out his theory of general relativity, cosmologists realized the equations implied we are living in an expanding universe. It led to the formulation of the Big Bang model, which has received confirmation from observations in a variety of ways ever since. Besides direct measurements of the universal expansion, a very notable confirmation of the Big Bang model is the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Cosmologists reasoned that, if the cosmos has been expanding, there must have been an era in the past when it was too dense for light to travel freely. All matter was so hot and densely packed that protons and electrons were unable to form stable hydrogen atoms. These free charges were constantly interacting with the available light rays. Because of this constant scattering, the light was in balance with the energy of the hot material which filled our baby universe. But as the universe kept expanding, a time came (estimated ~379,000 years after the singularity) when the universe was cold enough for protons and electrons to combine and form stable hydrogen atoms. The multitude of light rays could suddenly start traveling freely, without being scattered all the time. As a result, an intense flash of light was released at that point in cosmic history. It was released everywhere, producing a bath of radiation that permeates the entire cosmos. This cosmic radiation reflects the properties of the universe back then, extremely hot and almost uniform.

In 1948, cosmologists estimated the properties of this hypothesized cosmic radiation. They knew from observations and theory at which temperatures protons and electrons are able to form stable hydrogen atoms: below about 3,000 degrees Kelvin. Given the thermal equilibrium of the universe at that temperature, they predicted that the emitted radiation would follow almost perfectly a  blackbody spectrum  (see image below). Over 13 billion years later, the expansion of the universe would have stretched out the radiation by a factor of 1000. This would reduce the temperature by the same factor, down to about 3 degrees Kelvin. After stretching, the typical wavelength of light ends up in the microwave region (millimeters), hence the name: Cosmic Microwave Background. When this prediction was made, no instruments were yet available to test this prediction.

17 years later, in 1965, the prediction was confirmed accidentally by radio astronomers Penzias and Wilson. They were trying to measure radio signals bouncing off weather balloons. However, their measurements were disturbed by background noise which appeared to be coming from all directions. After going over their equipment many times, they excluded the possibility of any technical faults. It puzzled them greatly. Then, by mere chance, Penzias learned that a group of astrophysicists over at Princeton had been making preparations to look for cosmic radiation as a remnant of the Big Bang. It was at this point that Penzias and Wilson started to come to terms with the significance of their discovery. Their observations were within the exact predicted range of the Princeton astrophysicists, and fit the predicted shape of the spectrum (resulting in a Nobel Prize; see the image below).

Furthermore, cosmologists reasoned that the CMB should also vary slightly in temperature across the sky. Such fluctuations would have resulted from the first “seeds” of density in the early universe, from which galaxies eventually formed. However, ground-based telescopes were not sensitive enough to measure such small differences. Another 27 years later, in 1992, a space telescope (the  Cosmic Background Explorer  or COBE) was used to directly test for these extremely tiny variations in the temperature of the CMB. Indeed, they were observed as predicted (resulting in another Nobel Prize).

ABOVE: The “brightness” (actually flux density in MJy per steradian) of the CMB plotted as a function of wavelength (in cm). Image created by author using  publicly available data from NASA .

Geology: The Chicxulub Crater

The  geologic column  is a record of Earth’s history. Anywhere on the Earth, the rock layers tell the story of the events that led to Earth’s present condition. One of these layers is called the K-Pg boundary, a thin line of rock separating the Cretaceous period (145-66 million years ago) from the Paleogene period (66-43 million years ago). The K-Pg boundary consistently dates to an age of 66 million years, as shown by radiometric dating methods. Below this layer, dinosaur fossils are frequently found. Above it, dinosaur fossils are completely absent. This has been interpreted as evidence of a global extinction event around that time, that decimated the dinosaurs.

In 1980, a team of researchers led by physicist Luis Alvarez discovered extremely high iridium concentrations at the K-Pg boundary, present all over the planet. Iridium is extremely rare in the crust of our planet and is known to be abundant in asteroids and comets. Therefore, Alvarez and his colleagues proposed that the iridium layer resulted from a massive asteroid-impact at the time of the K-Pg boundary. If the collision was large enough, it could have led to dramatic changes in the earth’s climate, making it unsuitable for large cold-blooded animals like dinosaurs. In turn, that could explain the observed absence of dinosaurs above the K-Pg boundary.

Alvarez and colleagues also roughly estimated the size of the crater left behind by this impact: about 250 km in diameter. When this idea was proposed, there was no documented crater that matched the event. This was not extremely problematic, because geological processes can erase craters over time. However, in 1990 geologists identified a  massive crater  buried under the Chicxulub region on the coast of Yucatan, Mexico. The crater was dated to the the same age as K-Pg boundary and it has an average diameter of about 180 km, close to the size calculated by the Alvarez team! As a result, a massive asteroid-impact at that location is now widely believed to be one of the major causes of the extinction of dinosaurs.

Paleontology:  Tiktaalik

In the  Origin of Species , Darwin laid out his case for the common descent of all life. Accordingly, he predicted that intermediate varieties must have existed for all major evolutionary transitions. He also explained the apparent rarity of actually observing such transitional species in the fossil record:

“But just in proportion as this process of extermination has acted on an enormous scale, so must the number of intermediate varieties, which have formerly existed on the earth, be truly enormous. Why then is not every geological formation and every stratum full of such intermediate links? Geology assuredly does not reveal any such finely graduated organic chain; and this, perhaps, is the most obvious and gravest objection which can be urged against my theory. The explanation lies, as I believe, in the extreme imperfection of the geological record” (280).

Over the decades since Darwin’s work was published, paleontologists have expanded their record of fossil layers and classified fossilized organisms down to the finest detail. Amazingly, along the way, many of the predicted  transitional species  have been showing up in fossil form. For example, Darwin’s theory predicts a transitional form that bridges the gap between archaic fish and the first amphibious creatures (ancestors of most land creatures). It is a fish-like creature with limb-like fins (with arm-like bones) that would have allowed it to navigate land. It also had a neck and rib cage, allowing for breathing like amphibians, in addition to small gill slits that formed the basis for the development of ears in later species.

Paleontologist Neil Shubin was determined to find this fossil. He made a prediction about where the fossil would be found: in rock layers dated to around 375 million years old. This age marks the transition in the geological record below which only sea creatures are found, and above which amphibians are present.

In 2004, Shubin discovered a remarkable specimen that exactly represents such a transition:  the  Tiktaalik . Amazingly, it was found in exactly the rock layer where Shubin had predicted. In other words,  Tiktaalik  was found precisely where the transition would have taken place if Darwin’s ideas about common descent were correct.

ABOVE: Lobe-finned fish such as  Eusthenopteron  (bottom left) are followed by multiple adaptations in the fossil record:  Panderichthys  (center left), adapted for muddy shallows;  Tiktaalik  (top center) with limb-like fins that could take it onto land; Early four-legged animals adapted for weed-filled swamps, such as  Acanthostega  (center right; with feet with digits) and  Ichthyostega  (top right; with limbs). Lobe-finned fish such as  Coelacanth  (bottom right) also descended from the Eusthenopteron.  Image source

Paleobiogeography: Genes and Geography of Marsupials

In the age of genetics, new ways of interlocking evidence have become available. By measuring the genetic “distance” between closely related species and mutation rates, it is possible to estimate how long ago these species diverged from each other. Using this “molecular clock,” we can build a very detailed tree of all life (see image below). For significant genetic differences to arise between groups of animals within a species, they need to become isolated from each other to some extent. Such isolation can be ecological (different niches within one environment) and geographical (different locations). Eventually, through genetic drift and natural selection, such sub-groups can become different species altogether. One very direct cause of geographical isolation is continental drift. As entire continents gradually drift apart, sub-populations on either side of the rift are deprived of the opportunity to mate with each other. In this way, the geological history of our planet should have left traces in the genes of present-day species.

A very notable example of geology affecting genetics is found in the  clade  of marsupials, mammals with pouches. Marsupials have a different kind of reproduction system than placental mammals and are only ever found in the Americas and in Australia. Marsupials constitute an entirely separate group of mammals with unique features (e.g. koalas, rat-like species, wombats, and kangaroos.). [1]  See the image below for an impression of the genetic “family tree” of Marsupials. Using the present-day drift of continents and other geological evidence, the separation between Antarctica and Australia was estimated to have occurred over the period of 50-100 million years ago. The clade of marsupials encompasses land animals that are currently present on both sides of the rift.

Therefore, biologists expected to find evidence of this geological separation in the genes of marsupials, with the molecular clock dating to the same time period. And this is exactly what they have observed in the genetic “history” of marsupials. In particular, the species  monito del monte  (a tree-mouse; part of Microbiotheria below) is only found in South America today and in the fossil record of Antarctica and Australia. Based on genetic divergence, its lineage is estimated to have separated from the Australian marsupials 75 million years ago, coinciding with the geological separation of Antarctica and Australia. It is amazing that two entirely separate fields of study, geology and genetics, both with completely different methods, converge on a unified picture of natural history.

ABOVE: The clade of marsupials. All present-day marsupials descended from a founding population of ancestral marsupials (on the left). The green lines then indicate the branching “family tree” (derived from genetic divergence). All Australian marsupials fall under the superorder Australidelphia, as do the Microbiotheria. The only surviving species of Microbiotheria is the Monito del Monte, which diverged from the Australian Marsupials 75 million years ago. Geographical locations are noted, with the Americas and Antarctica in blue and Australia in red, which were separated 50-100 million years ago, indicated with the red dashed line.

[1]  In a YEC global flood scenario, it is problematic to explain how  all  marsupial descendants and fossils could have been constrained to the Americas and Australia,  before and after  dispersion from the Ark of Noah. Post-Flood hyperspeciation after a single migration cannot be invoked because the variety among marsupials is too extreme to be categorized as a single “kind” or “baramin”.

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Casper Hesp

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• Written Essays

How to write source-based history essays

The biggest assessment task you will be required to complete is a written research essay which develops an argument and uses a range of sources.

All types of assessment tasks will need you to use essay-writing skills in some form, but their fundamental structure and purpose remains the same.

Therefore, learning how to write essays well is central to achieving high marks in History.

What is an 'essay'?

A History essay is a structured argument that provides historical evidence to substantiate its points. 

To achieve the correct structure for your argument, it is crucial to understand the separate parts that make up a written essay. 

If you understand how each part works and fits into the overall essay, you are well on the way to creating a great assessment piece.

Most essays will require you to write:

• 1 Introduction Paragraph
• 3 Body Paragraphs
• 1 Concluding Paragraph

Explanations for how to structure and write each of these paragraphs can be found below, along with examples of each: 

Essay paragraph writing advice

How to write an Introductory Paragraph

This page explains the purpose of an introduction, how to structure one and provides examples for you to read.

How to write Body Paragraphs

This page explains the purpose of body paragraphs, how to structure them and provides examples for you to read.

How to write a Conclusion

This page explains the purpose of conclusions, how to structure them and provides examples for you to read.

More essay resources

What do you need help with, download ready-to-use digital learning resources.

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scientific hypothesis

Our editors will review what you’ve submitted and determine whether to revise the article.

• National Center for Biotechnology Information - PubMed Central - On the scope of scientific hypotheses
• LiveScience - What is a scientific hypothesis?
• The Royal Society - On the scope of scientific hypotheses

scientific hypothesis , an idea that proposes a tentative explanation about a phenomenon or a narrow set of phenomena observed in the natural world. The two primary features of a scientific hypothesis are falsifiability and testability, which are reflected in an “If…then” statement summarizing the idea and in the ability to be supported or refuted through observation and experimentation. The notion of the scientific hypothesis as both falsifiable and testable was advanced in the mid-20th century by Austrian-born British philosopher Karl Popper .

The formulation and testing of a hypothesis is part of the scientific method , the approach scientists use when attempting to understand and test ideas about natural phenomena. The generation of a hypothesis frequently is described as a creative process and is based on existing scientific knowledge, intuition , or experience. Therefore, although scientific hypotheses commonly are described as educated guesses, they actually are more informed than a guess. In addition, scientists generally strive to develop simple hypotheses, since these are easier to test relative to hypotheses that involve many different variables and potential outcomes. Such complex hypotheses may be developed as scientific models ( see scientific modeling ).

Depending on the results of scientific evaluation, a hypothesis typically is either rejected as false or accepted as true. However, because a hypothesis inherently is falsifiable, even hypotheses supported by scientific evidence and accepted as true are susceptible to rejection later, when new evidence has become available. In some instances, rather than rejecting a hypothesis because it has been falsified by new evidence, scientists simply adapt the existing idea to accommodate the new information. In this sense a hypothesis is never incorrect but only incomplete.

The investigation of scientific hypotheses is an important component in the development of scientific theory . Hence, hypotheses differ fundamentally from theories; whereas the former is a specific tentative explanation and serves as the main tool by which scientists gather data, the latter is a broad general explanation that incorporates data from many different scientific investigations undertaken to explore hypotheses.

Countless hypotheses have been developed and tested throughout the history of science . Several examples include the idea that living organisms develop from nonliving matter, which formed the basis of spontaneous generation , a hypothesis that ultimately was disproved (first in 1668, with the experiments of Italian physician Francesco Redi , and later in 1859, with the experiments of French chemist and microbiologist Louis Pasteur ); the concept proposed in the late 19th century that microorganisms cause certain diseases (now known as germ theory ); and the notion that oceanic crust forms along submarine mountain zones and spreads laterally away from them ( seafloor spreading hypothesis ).

Historical Research

Ai generator.

One of the most significant historical events that changed the world is the invention of written language around 3500-3000 BCE in Sumer. Originally, Sumerians started to use  writing  to communicate with people from other cities and regions to trade resources. From then on, they did multiple enhancements on the invention to maximize its use. Today, needless to say, this invention has been serving us its purpose in many ways, such as in developing  procedure documentation  and writing a research paper for historical research.

What Is Historical Research?

Historical research is a research methodology that allows people to study past events that have molded the present. This investigation involves systematically retaking the pieces of information from one or more data sources which can let you, as a researcher or a detective, create a theory of how a phenomenon happened to be in its present situation. Although this type of research usually uses primary sources, such as journals and testimonies in many forms, the data it gets may also come from secondary sources, such as textbooks in the public library, newspapers, etc. Due to the nature of historical research, comparing and preserving historical records can also be good reasons to conduct this kind of research.

Strong Historical Research Design

For effective execution of the data collection and analysis for historical research in education and other fields, you will need a strong research design that includes the following stages.

1. Data Collection

We have mentioned earlier that in gathering the necessary data for historical research, you can use either or both primary and secondary data sources. Additionally, although this research is under the vast category of qualitative research , you can use quantitative data to interpret the facts you use.

2. Data Criticism

One of the advantages of conducting historical research is, aside from the present, you may gather evidence to explain the event that is yet to happen, which can be a delicate piece of information. In coming up with an explanation about a future phenomenon, you must evaluate the reliability of your sources. You can do it through  internal and external validity . Through an external validity, you can determine the authenticity of a reference. Meanwhile, with internal validity, you can ensure that the data you gather is reliable by interpreting the content correctly.

3. Data Presentation

Once you have assured that the data you have collected is competent enough, you will analyze it and test the hypothesis of your research. We recommend you to do this step carefully since you will use logical methods instead of statistical tools. Avoid over-simplifying details and incorporating personal observations.

10+ Historical Research Examples

Now, you know the elements to include in your research. Let’s take a look at how researchers write their history research paper.

1. Biography of Historical Research Example

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2. Historical Research in Library Example

Size: 335 KB

3. Historical Reserch Agenda Example

4. Sample Historical Research Example

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5. Historical Research Information Systems Research Example

Size: 424 KB

6. Historical Research in Social Work Example

Size: 406 KB

7. Stndard Historical Research Example

Size: 18 KB

8. Legal History and Historical Research Example

Size: 58 KB

9. Methods and Principles of Historical Research Example

Size: 34 KB

10. Historical Research in Communication Example

Size: 129 KB

11. Historical Research in Education Example

Size: 54 KB

Best Practices in Conducting Historical Research

Now that you know almost everything that you need to cover about historical research, strengthen your project by keeping the following guidelines in mind.

1. Narrow Down the Direction of Your Project

Before you start writing your research paper , think of the topic that you choose to research. List down the research questions that you will focus on throughout the research process. Gather useful information and take note of the source information such as the author, etc. Then, decide on the specific type of information that you want to focus on. These steps will ensure that your research will not go astray.

2. Be Mindful of Your Sources

There are many sources available to gather information for your inquiry, especially on the internet. However, the question is, are these contents reliable enough? For historical research, we recommend you to ask assistance to the public librarians or historical consultants before you incorporate the information that you have gathered from the internet and the library.

3. Balance your Searches

Nowadays, you can always find the information that you need through the internet. However, when conducting research, you must do well-balanced data gathering. Meaning, aside from one source like the internet, you can gather data that you can only find in a particular root. A good example is local news.

4. Dig Deeper

It is essential to narrow down the scope of your research. It will be more interesting if you use the information that you have gathered to know more about a particular event or topic. It can also be an excellent way to find new leads that can support your research.

Countless historical events changed the way we perceive things. Among these phenomena, is the invention of written language. It also allows us to know how to deal with the obstacles that we are yet to encounter. Enlighten the people of a significant phenomenon by applying what you learned today to the research project that you are going to conduct.

Text prompt

• Instructive
• Professional

10 Examples of Public speaking

20 Examples of Gas lighting

Hypothesis for History

Hypothesis empowers students and educators to highlight and comment on digital course materials, helping to develop reading comprehension and critical thinking skills, increase student engagement, and create community in online, hybrid, and in-person courses.

Social annotation works right on top of existing course content to:

• Develop close reading skills for the comprehension and analysis of primary sources
• Cultivate disciplinary literacy in the reading and writing of academic research
• Encourage peer-to-peer learning and collaborative knowledge production
• Facilitate purposeful asynchronous communication outside of the classroom

What teachers are saying

“Hypothesis was valuable in helping students delve more deeply into content than ever before. I’ve noticed more student participation throughout our use of the tool. In particular, it has provided a way for students who would not usually feel comfortable speaking in class to express themselves in written form.”

Liz Skilton, History Professor, University of Louisiana at Lafayette

“Hypothesis provides a user-friendly way for you and your students to have conversations about primary and secondary sources through digital annotation.”

Jessica Dauterive, History PhD Candidate, George Mason University

“Our use of Hypothesis has helped students to read more carefully and more deeply. They are helping each other make sense of the readings so they already have an idea of how others are thinking and discussion in class ends up being an extension of those ongoing conversations.”

Jasmine Ma, Education Professor, New York University

Explore our collection of conversations with teachers, example assignments, and grading rubrics to get ideas about how to add social annotation to your courses.

Assignments

A video discussion including Alicia Maggard from Auburn University and Mary Klann from UC San Diego about using collaborative annotation to engage students in active, visible, social discussion on history texts.

A video discussion including Associate Professor of History at Trent University Olga Andriewsky and Trent University Department of Psychology Associate Professor Fergal O’Hagan about using the pedagogical practice of social annotation.

• Primary Source Annotation : This assignment probably represents one of the first uses of Hypothesis in an educational context. University of Mary Washington History professor Jeff McClurken has been experimenting with Hypothesis in the classroom since the app’s early days.  Most recently Jeff has used the assignment in a US Women’s History to 1870 class.
• Ongoing Assignment : An annotation assignment could be a one-off exercise in close reading or it could be a daily practice for students throughout their course readings. This assignment imagines Hypothesis as a go-to reading and collaborating tool for an entire course.
• Social Annotation Marking Rubric and Checklist : A descriptive, four level rubric from Vanier College.
• Annotations Rubric : A descriptive, three level rubric from Katherine D. Harris at San Jose State University.

Example courses using Hypothesis

• Cultural History
• History of the Future
• Introduction to History
• Modern European History
• United States History to 1877
• Western Civilization
• Women in America

Some Hypothesis partners with a History focus

See all schools using Hypothesis and learn more about the AnnotatED community.

Download a one-page handout to share with colleagues via print or email.

Musings on biblical studies, politics, religion, ethics, human nature, tidbits from science

What Do We Mean by “Historical Hypothesis”?

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License .

by Tim Widowfield

Filed under: Historical Methods and Historiography Tags: Christ Myth Debate , Historical Method

Neil has already discussed Jonathan Bernier’s post, “ Critical Realism and the New Testament ,” here (The Poverty of Jesus Historicism (sorry, Popper))  and here (Some Very Funny and Some Very Serious History) , but I’m just now catching up. I knew we were in for a bumpy ride as soon as I found out Dr. McGrath had awarded his seal of approval.

Honestly, my first reaction was my second, as well as my third, reaction: Despair — and not only the despair of realizing how bad things have gotten, but also the grim recognition that we have not yet hit bottom. McGrath writes :

What Bernier writes really is a great example of the kind of balanced perspective on the matter that is all but universal among mainstream historians and scholars in related fields.

Oh, goody. What wonderful things did Bernier write? Well, buckle up. Here we go!

All historical argumentation is probabilistic. This is also to say that any and all historical hypotheses are subject to revision or dispute.

So far, so good. Unfortunately, he has left too much unsaid. He doesn’t give us a working definition of the term historical hypothesis , nor does he explain what sorts of evidence would lead to revisions or disputes of such hypotheses. Given what follows, we have reason to believe Bernier has a peculiar understanding of the term.

Hypotheses subject to revision are hypotheses whose probability sufficiently approaches 1.0 that we can treat them as virtually certain.

I must be reading this wrong. In the preceding sentence, Bernier wrote that  all  hypotheses are subject to revision. But then he implies that the subset of hypotheses that are subject to revision are ones “whose probability sufficiently approaches 1.0.” I don’t understand this sentence, but I can set it aside for now — except to say that Bernier doesn’t really explain how and why revision should occur nor how we calculate the probability of a hypothesis. We have everything we need but the what, the how, and the why.

He continues:

Such hypotheses include the hypothesis that Germany invaded Poland in September of 1939, or that Jesus of Nazareth existed.

And just that quickly, we have run completely off the rails. Germany invading Poland in September of 1939 is not a historical hypothesis. It is a historical fact. And Bernier would know that if he knew what a hypothesis is .

Such hypotheses are virtually certain not necessarily because there are no conceivable alternatives, but in many (perhaps most) cases because all conceivable alternatives are sufficiently improbable that they can be excluded.

Here, by the way, is the crux of the Jesus historicist position — that a historical Jesus fits the evidence better than a mythical Jesus. But we have fundamental mistakes here, which, I admit, are not unique to Bernier.

First, they assign probability based on a kind of feeling, which they assume to have weight and validity because they have been studying the subject in depth for a long time. Second, they assume that since H is more likely than any  not H hypothesis they can imagine, that the probability of  H must approach 1.0. It never occurs to them that the state of the evidence might force us to admit  we don’t know .

Can I conceive of a world in which all the documentary and eyewitness evidence for Germany’s invasion of Poland in 1939 is falsified and it never took place? Perhaps. Is that alternative probable? Hardly. Nonetheless, in principle, even the most probable statement is subject to revision upon the emergence either of new evidence or new insights into old evidence.

Again, and I simply cannot stress this point enough: Hitler’s invasion of Poland is not a hypothesis. It is a fact, amply demonstrated by hundreds, if not thousands of bits of firsthand evidence. We have eyewitness accounts, contemporary radio broadcasts, photographs, motion picture film — untold mountains of physical, tangible evidence. It is beyond question. It is an event. It is a fact.

Then what exactly is a hypothesis, and how does it differ from a fact? First of all, we need a historical hypothesis when our evidence is limited . That is to say, we infer from evidence and argumentation in order to establish a likely explanation for something that is open to question or interpretation.

If our evidence were complete and unambiguous, we would instead simply have a fact. On the other hand, without facts — buttressed by multiple, independent, verified bits of primary  evidence — our hypotheses would stand upon mere conjecture and speculation.

For example, A.J.P. Taylor did not deny the fact of the invasion of Poland, but he did offer a new evaluation of Hitler’s motives for doing so. Marxist historians do not deny that Julius Caesar curried favor among the urban poor, but they provide new interpretations about why he did what he did.

Second, according to most historians, a good hypothesis should give us the simplest explanation with the most explanatory power . A historical hypothesis should not create more problems than it solves.

I suspect Bernier wants to compare Jesus’ existence to the invasion of Poland because he wants us to think both are equally unassailable, and force the conclusion that only a nutter denialist would disagree with either proposition. Whether he knows he’s engaging in sophistry is another matter, which I will set aside at least for the moment.

Bernier continues:

The recent resurgence in arguments for Jesus’ historical non-existence rested entirely upon the argument that there had emerged new insights into old evidence. The reason that these arguments fail is because those competent in the matter and fully familiar with the evidence recognized immediately that these were not new insights at all but almost without exception insights that had been advanced and rejected the better part of a century ago.

We have seen this assertion before. There is, they say, no new thing under the sun. And if he were correct, we could almost forgive a PhD who writes about history who so badly misunderstands the historical method.

Yet in every case the defenders of historicity have consistently shown that they either cannot or will not engage with the arguments at hand. And this goes back as far as we can look. Consider the terrible job Shirley Jackson Case did in his treatment of Drews. Did he even read any of it? Consider how many times McGrath misrepresented what Earl Doherty wrote. Do we chalk it up to incompetence or malice?

They remain unaware of the deep-seated problems in their field. Unfortunately, none of them seem to comprehend the categorical difference between establishing the historicity of Jesus vs. the fair assessment of a particular historical reconstruction of Jesus  if he existed . In fact, they are so inept and ill-prepared to address the concept of minimal historicity that they almost invariably fall back on their special knowledge and authority.

Trust them. They know. Isn’t that right, Dr. Bernier?

There is a reason that one can count on two fingers the number of credentialed New Testament scholars who subscribe to the hypothesis that Jesus never existed: quite simply, competent familiarity with the data precludes affirmation of the hypothesis.

Some of us can remember when NT scholars who appealed to this argument would confidently intone that “not a single credentialed NT scholar” doubted the historicity of Jesus. Who knows? Next year we might need as many as three fingers.

I think our only hope for improvement here is for real historians to get involved. I see that Bernier has a bachelor’s in anthropology. That’s nice. Unfortunately, his MA and PhD are in religious studies, which I think helps explain his approach to history. If we had fewer ministers and theologians, and more professional ancient historians (driven, we hope, less by confessional interests), perhaps things would improve. Until then, it falls to us amateurs to throw up a flag and hope that at some point people will notice.

Be sure to re-read Neil’s post from 2011: “ What is history? What is a historical fact? ” It still applies.

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15 thoughts on “what do we mean by “historical hypothesis””.

For what it’s worth, I have a small piece coming out FFRF’s Freethought Today this next month that addresses this a little bit, just the topic of the credibility of the mainstream model.

I’m also trying to get a more in-depth piece into CFI’s Free Inquiry magazine, but I haven’t gotten acceptance on that yet.

From my perspective I’m doing two things: 1) Moving forward with new scholarship on the basis of the mythicist model, i.e. no longer arguing for mythicism, rather presenting new material within that framework, like presenting new astronomical findings on the assumption of heliocentrism as opposed to arguing for heliocentrism. 2) Calling the mainstream case into question on its own, without framing the issue as one of mythicism. In other words, there are serious problem with the mainstream model that need to be addressed, even if one doesn’t assume mythicism is the solution to those problems.

I also think it’s important to acknowledge the “bad scholarship” among mythicists. We can’t act like everything is reasonable. Yes, there are some nonsensical claims made by some people who claim that Jesus never existed.

But you know what, there are also many nonsensical claims made by people who think that Jesus was real too, and we need to make that clear. Mythicism definitely has a problem with “poisoning the well.” Yes, there are some crackpots in the field, that’s true, but is claiming that Jesus worship developed from the worship of Egyptian sun gods really any more crazy than people claiming that the Gospels are eyewitness accounts and that the resurrection and all the miracles are confirmed facts? Because guess what, people with PhD’s from seminary schools, some of the prestigious, make such claims.

Are we to just Bart Ehrman on the basis that he’s in league with such people? That’s how he judges mythicists…

Yes, I agree. There are deep problems in the world of mythicism. For example, I stayed away from the astrotheology foolishness not just because it isn’t worth talking about, but also because Murdock’s fanboys are an extremely unpleasant bunch.

One of the biggest problems I see over and over again is the mistake of thinking that just because you’ve apparently made the pieces fit, you’ve solved the puzzle. That’s where we get into issues of simplicity, plausibility and explanatory power.

I about done with argumentation. I demand EVIDENCE; testable, verifiable evidence. I’m tired of people blowing smoke rings and expecting other people to jump through the hoops. Without solid evidence, what the hell are we arguing?

This would seem to demand what we haven’t got and probably never will have. We have no corroborating evidence for Christianity’s origins outside the New Testament contemporary with it’s authors. You are I hope speaking in jest, pointing out an impossibly high standard that those setting such do not for for one moment adhere to themselves; but if so you should make that clear.

Tim, It seems to me that Carrier is correct in calling for formalization once the probabilistic nature of knowledge is acknowledged, hence Bayesian formalism. For some reason that escapes to me, you avoid it when it would have been only natural to apply it related Hitler’s invasion vs. Jesus historicism. In that case you can clearly argue why you can treat HI as background information with a probability near (but not quite) 1 thanks to all the evidence you mention, as opposed to JH. So the question I have, is your reluctance to employ Bayesian formalism meditated? Thanks.

In general I have no issues with Bayesian statistics and recognize its utility in forensics and history. However, in this case, I think biblical scholars need to crawl before they can walk. They don’t appear to realize how much they don’t know and how much they’re just winging it.

Beyond that, you simply don’t need math to prove a fact. The invasion of Poland is an established fact. (Hell, there are people alive today who lived through it.) The existence of Jesus is not. Bernier is comparing two different categories as if they were the same thing. It is not a question of degree but of essence.

Some comments: – The moment you talk probability you’re talking math. Bernier and McGrath are agreeing to that, you should use it. – “you simply don’t need math to prove a fact.” Well, what is a fact for you is clearly not a fact for JH people, and vice versa. However, the premise of probability is accepted by both, that should allow to guide the discussion (assuming honesty on all sides, not a given, I know). – “They don’t appear to realize how much they don’t know and how much they’re just winging it.” Well, that’s the point, you need to show how much they don’t know, so you need to quantify. Even if you don’t use numbers, you can point why the probabilities are high in one case (and can be considered fact) and low on the other. You started doing it but move away from it. Keep in mind that not all cases will be clear cut as in the Hitler’s invasion and that there is a gradation on certainty which directly depends on the amount and quality of evidence.

Myself, and I think many other people, are underwhelmed, if not put off by, Carrier’s use of probabilities. They don’t really seem grounded in anything and just kind of detract from the whole issue IMO. I’d say that’s one of the things about Carrier’s work that i like least. It becomes a distraction.

Not to mention it’s a misapplication of the Theorem at the outset.

Gday, In case you haven’t been informed yet, your web-site certificate just expired.

This post reminds me of some of the discussions I have followed on various forums where proponents of an Historical Jesus simply proclaim that their hypothesis is as obviously true as any observable fact about the world. Anyone who questions the ‘fact’ of an Historical Jesus is comparable to a Creationist, a Holocaust denier, or a Flat Earther.

They seem to think they are lifting up their hypothesis to the level of confidence and reliability of the theory of evolution, 20th century history, or physics when it is apparent to me they are simply trivializing them by equating the mountains of physical evidence on which they are built to the molehill of dubious texts which can possibly be interpreted to support the Historical Jesus.

Well if course the Nazi invasion of Poland in 1939 isn’t a hypothesis. It’s a theory as any believer can tell you.

“If we had fewer ministers and theologians, and more professional ancient historians (driven, we hope, less by confessional interests), perhaps things would improve.” Think of how much things would improve if ministers and theologians without confessional interests examined the hypothses from the standpoint of intellectual honesty.

1+1=2 Such is obvious. The proof that it is so runs I am told to fifty pages. A fact is both a tested hypothesis and a proven theory. That is what I understand makes it a fact.

“Hypotheses subject to revision are hypotheses whose probability sufficiently approaches 1.0 that we can treat them as virtually certain.”

is not only incomprehensible but cotradictory. If something has to be revised, it is not certain. A word seems to have been dropped and some punctuation left out. I would reformulate the sentence as:

“Tested, proven hypotheses, subject to revision, are hypotheses whose probability sufficiently approaches 1.0 that we can treat them as virtually certain.”

That I derive from reading your post, Tim. On then reading the whole excerpt in McGrath’s post I think that is what is probably meant from what follows in the paragraph.

That the Wehrmacht did indeed invade Poland is a tested hypothesis and a proven theory and so a fact. The theory formulation and hypothesis testing is done more or less instantaneously in our minds on seeing the evidence rather than being set down on paper. We assume the formalities have been undertaken elsewhere. Bernier makes a similar assumption that an historical Jesus, and only an historical Jesus, is necessary to account for the origins of Christianity. He looks back a century and finds that scholars have inded found so. He probably neglects however to check whether previous scholars have worked the problem in sufficient depth or at all.

Reading the whole post on Bernier’s site, he makes a whole series of specific claims that seem to suffer from similar problems of bogus reasoning; nevermind going beyond the resolution of the tools he is using!

You illustrate your article with a photograph captioned “The Polish Cavalry at the Battle of Mokra, 1939”. Such did actually happen but illustrating it with a still probably from a film, television programme, or other re-enactment doesn’t prove it! (This is something I’ve looked into before, I recognise the still from doing so, though not the specifics.) A malapropism that illuminates your argument with rather appropriate humour, if accidentally.

Later in his post, McGrath quotes Steve Wiggins but chops the paragraph:

Christian history is full of movements where one group or another has “gone back” to the foundations to reestablish “authentic” Christianity. The problem is that centuries have intervened. That “original” worldview, and the sources to reconstruct that worldview, simply no longer exist. The primitivist religions have to back and fill a bit in order to have any foundation at all. What emerges are hybrid religions that think they’re pristine originals. Historians know, however, that no originals exist.

The following

We have no original biblical manuscripts. Teachings of Catholicism, and even Orthodoxy, change in response to the ongoing nature of human knowledge. History contains no instructions for getting behind the curtain to naked reality itself.

perhaps makes it too clear he is talking balls.

A salient point to make about Berniers’s argument is the illegitimate juxtaposition of an argument from modern history that is slam-dunk with an argument that is anything but from ancient history. In modern history we can attain much greater granularity and resolution than we can from ancient history and the probability that the argument is settled is orders of magnitude greater; though still not approaching 100%.

All that needs saying other than that is that Bernier is mistaken in thinking the problem has been worked in sufficient depth or in most cases at all; and in being mistaken and neglecting that, apart from mythicists arguing Jesus’ none existence, they are asking that question (Has the problem has been worked in sufficient depth or at all?) and answering in the negative having investigated. Then leaving Bernier, Mcgrath, and Wiggins to shoot themselves from reading their articles ourselves.

This would save working in our own misunderstandings making their errors fallaciously greater than they are already. They are only going to be liable to make such accidents out to be deliberate and use them for further dismissal.

Good post all the same.

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100 Hypothesis Examples Across Various Academic Fields

A hypothesis is a statement or proposition that is made for the purpose of testing through empirical research. It represents an educated guess or prediction that can be tested through observation and experimentation. A hypothesis is often formulated using a logical construct of "if-then" statements, allowing researchers to set up experiments to determine its validity. It serves as the foundation of a scientific inquiry, providing a clear focus and direction for the study. In essence, a hypothesis is a provisional answer to a research question , which is then subjected to rigorous testing to determine its accuracy.

In this blog post, we'll explore 100 different hypothesis examples, showing you how these simple statements set the stage for discovery in various academic fields. From the mysteries of chemical reactions to the complexities of human behavior, hypotheses are used to kickstart research in numerous disciplines. Whether you're new to the world of academia or just curious about how ideas are tested, these examples will offer insight into the fundamental role hypotheses play in learning and exploration.

• If a plant is given more sunlight, then it will grow faster.
• If an animal's environment is altered, then its behavior will change.
• If a cell is exposed to a toxin, then its function will be impaired.
• If a species is introduced to a new ecosystem, then it may become invasive.
• If an antibiotic is applied to a bacterial culture, then growth will be inhibited.
• If a gene is mutated, then the corresponding protein may become nonfunctional.
• If a pond's water temperature rises, then the algae population will increase.
• If a bird species' habitat is destroyed, then its population will decrease.
• If a mammal is given a high-fat diet, then its cholesterol levels will rise.
• If human stem cells are treated with specific factors, then they will differentiate into targeted cell types.
• If the concentration of a reactant is increased, then the rate of reaction will increase.
• If a metal is placed in a solution of a salt of a less reactive metal, then a displacement reaction will occur.
• If a solution's pH is lowered, then the concentration of hydrogen ions will increase.
• If a gas is cooled at constant pressure, then its volume will decrease according to Charles's law.
• If an endothermic reaction is heated, then the equilibrium position will shift to favor the products.
• If an enzyme is added to a reaction, then the reaction rate will increase due to the lower activation energy.
• If the pressure on a gas is increased at constant temperature, then the volume will decrease according to Boyle's law.
• If a non-polar molecule is added to water, then it will not dissolve due to water's polarity.
• If a piece of litmus paper is placed in a basic solution, then the color of the paper will turn blue.
• If an electric current is passed through a salt solution, then the solution will undergo electrolysis and break down into its components.

Computer science

• If a new algorithm is applied to a sorting problem, then the computational complexity will decrease.
• If multi-factor authentication is implemented, then the security of a system will increase.
• If a machine learning model is trained with more diverse data, then its predictive accuracy will improve.
• If the bandwidth of a network is increased, then the data transmission rate will be faster.
• If a user interface is redesigned following usability guidelines, then user satisfaction and efficiency will increase.
• If a specific optimization technique is applied to a database query, then the retrieval time will be reduced.
• If a new cooling system is used in a data center, then energy consumption will decrease.
• If parallel processing is implemented in a computational task, then the processing time will be reduced.
• If a software development team adopts Agile methodologies, then the project delivery time will be shortened.
• If a more advanced error correction code is used in data transmission, then the error rate will decrease.
• If the interest rate is lowered, then consumer spending will increase.
• If the minimum wage is raised, then unemployment may increase among low-skilled workers.
• If government spending is increased, then the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may grow.
• If taxes on luxury goods are raised, then consumption of those goods may decrease.
• If a country's currency is devalued, then its exports will become more competitive.
• If inflation is high, then the central bank may increase interest rates to control it.
• If consumer confidence is high, then spending in the economy will likely increase.
• If barriers to entry in a market are reduced, then competition will likely increase.
• If a firm engages in monopolistic practices, then consumer welfare may decrease.
• If unemployment benefits are extended, then the unemployment rate may be temporarily affected.
• If class sizes are reduced, then individual student performance may improve.
• If teachers receive ongoing professional development, then teaching quality will increase.
• If schools implement a comprehensive literacy program, then reading levels among students will rise.
• If parents are actively involved in their children's education, then students' academic achievement may increase.
• If schools provide more access to extracurricular activities, then student engagement and retention may improve.
• If educational technology is integrated into the classroom, then learning outcomes may enhance.
• If a school adopts a zero-tolerance policy on bullying, then the incidence of bullying will decrease.
• If schools provide nutritious meals, then student concentration and performance may improve.
• If a curriculum is designed to include diverse cultural perspectives, then student understanding of different cultures will increase.
• If schools implement individualized learning plans, then students with special needs will achieve better educational outcomes.

Environmental science

• If deforestation rates continue to rise, then biodiversity in the area will decrease.
• If carbon dioxide emissions are reduced, then the rate of global warming may decrease.
• If a water body is polluted with nutrients, then algal blooms may occur, leading to eutrophication.
• If renewable energy sources are used more extensively, then dependency on fossil fuels will decrease.
• If urban areas implement green spaces, then the urban heat island effect may be reduced.
• If protective measures are not implemented, then endangered species may become extinct.
• If waste recycling practices are increased, then landfill usage and waste pollution may decrease.
• If air quality regulations are enforced, then respiratory health issues in the population may decrease.
• If soil erosion control measures are not implemented, then agricultural land fertility may decrease.
• If ocean temperatures continue to rise, then coral reefs may experience more frequent bleaching events.
• If a new chemotherapy drug is administered to cancer patients, then tumor size will decrease more effectively.
• If a specific exercise regimen is followed by osteoarthritis patients, then joint mobility will improve.
• If a population is exposed to higher levels of air pollution, then respiratory diseases such as asthma will increase.
• If a novel surgical technique is utilized in cardiac surgery, then patient recovery times will be shortened.
• If a targeted screening program is implemented for a specific genetic disorder, then early detection and intervention rates will increase.
• If a community's water supply is fortified with fluoride, then dental cavity rates in children will decrease.
• If an improved vaccination schedule is followed in a pediatric population, then the incidence of preventable childhood diseases will decline.
• If nutritional supplements are provided to malnourished individuals, then general health and immune function will improve.
• If stricter infection control protocols are implemented in hospitals, then the rate of hospital-acquired infections will decrease.
• If organ transplant recipients are given a new immunosuppressant drug, then organ rejection rates will decrease.
• If a person is exposed to violent media, then their aggression levels may increase.
• If a child is given positive reinforcement, then desired behaviors will be more likely to be repeated.
• If an individual suffers from anxiety, then their performance on tasks under pressure may decrease.
• If a patient is treated with cognitive-behavioral therapy, then symptoms of depression may reduce.
• If a person lacks sleep, then their cognitive functions and decision-making abilities will decline.
• If an individual's self-esteem is increased, then their overall life satisfaction may improve.
• If a person is exposed to a traumatic event, then they may develop symptoms of PTSD.
• If social support is provided to an individual, then their ability to cope with stress will improve.
• If a group works collaboratively, then they may exhibit improved problem-solving abilities.
• If an individual is given autonomy in their work, then their job satisfaction and motivation will increase.
• If the velocity of an object is increased, then the kinetic energy will also increase.
• If the temperature of a gas is increased at constant pressure, then the volume will increase.
• If the mass of an object is doubled, then the gravitational force it exerts will also double.
• If the frequency of a wave is increased, then the energy it carries will increase.
• If a magnet's distance from a metal object is decreased, then the magnetic force will increase.
• If the angle of incidence equals the angle of reflection, then the law of reflection holds true.
• If the resistance in an electrical circuit is increased, then the current will decrease.
• If the force applied to a spring is doubled, then the extension of the spring will also double.
• If a mirror is concave, then it will focus parallel rays to a point.
• If a body is in uniform circular motion, then the net force toward the center is providing the centripetal acceleration.
• If educational opportunities are equally distributed in a society, then social mobility will increase.
• If community policing strategies are implemented, then trust between law enforcement and the community may improve.
• If social media usage increases among teenagers, then face-to-face social interaction may decrease.
• If gender wage gap policies are enforced, then disparities in earnings between men and women will decrease.
• If a society emphasizes individualistic values, then community engagement and collective responsibility may decline.
• If affordable housing initiatives are implemented in urban areas, then homelessness rates may decrease.
• If a minority group is represented in media, then stereotypes and prejudices toward that group may decrease.
• If a culture promotes work-life balance, then overall life satisfaction among its citizens may increase.
• If increased funding is provided to community centers in underserved neighborhoods, then social cohesion and community engagement may improve.
• If legislation is passed to protect the rights of LGBTQ+ individuals, then discrimination and stigma may decrease in society.

In the exploration of various academic disciplines, hypotheses play a crucial role as foundational statements that guide research and inquiry. From understanding complex biological processes to navigating the nuances of human behavior in sociology, hypotheses serve as testable predictions that shape the direction of scientific investigation. The examples provided across the fields of medicine, computer science, sociology, and education illustrate the diverse applications and importance of hypotheses in shaping our understanding of the world. Whether improving medical treatments, enhancing technological systems, fostering social equality, or elevating educational practices, hypotheses remain central to scientific progress and societal advancement. By formulating clear and measurable hypotheses, researchers can continue to unravel complex phenomena, contribute to their fields, and ultimately enrich human knowledge and well-being.

Header image by Qunica .

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What is a scientific hypothesis?

It's the initial building block in the scientific method.

Hypothesis basics

What makes a hypothesis testable.

• Types of hypotheses
• Hypothesis versus theory

Additional resources

Bibliography.

A scientific hypothesis is a tentative, testable explanation for a phenomenon in the natural world. It's the initial building block in the scientific method . Many describe it as an "educated guess" based on prior knowledge and observation. While this is true, a hypothesis is more informed than a guess. While an "educated guess" suggests a random prediction based on a person's expertise, developing a hypothesis requires active observation and background research. 

The basic idea of a hypothesis is that there is no predetermined outcome. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. This concept, called falsifiability and testability, was advanced in the mid-20th century by Austrian-British philosopher Karl Popper in his famous book "The Logic of Scientific Discovery" (Routledge, 1959).

A key function of a hypothesis is to derive predictions about the results of future experiments and then perform those experiments to see whether they support the predictions.

A hypothesis is usually written in the form of an if-then statement, which gives a possibility (if) and explains what may happen because of the possibility (then). The statement could also include "may," according to California State University, Bakersfield .

Here are some examples of hypothesis statements:

• If garlic repels fleas, then a dog that is given garlic every day will not get fleas.
• If sugar causes cavities, then people who eat a lot of candy may be more prone to cavities.
• If ultraviolet light can damage the eyes, then maybe this light can cause blindness.

A useful hypothesis should be testable and falsifiable. That means that it should be possible to prove it wrong. A theory that can't be proved wrong is nonscientific, according to Karl Popper's 1963 book " Conjectures and Refutations ."

An example of an untestable statement is, "Dogs are better than cats." That's because the definition of "better" is vague and subjective. However, an untestable statement can be reworded to make it testable. For example, the previous statement could be changed to this: "Owning a dog is associated with higher levels of physical fitness than owning a cat." With this statement, the researcher can take measures of physical fitness from dog and cat owners and compare the two.

Types of scientific hypotheses

In an experiment, researchers generally state their hypotheses in two ways. The null hypothesis predicts that there will be no relationship between the variables tested, or no difference between the experimental groups. The alternative hypothesis predicts the opposite: that there will be a difference between the experimental groups. This is usually the hypothesis scientists are most interested in, according to the University of Miami .

For example, a null hypothesis might state, "There will be no difference in the rate of muscle growth between people who take a protein supplement and people who don't." The alternative hypothesis would state, "There will be a difference in the rate of muscle growth between people who take a protein supplement and people who don't."

If the results of the experiment show a relationship between the variables, then the null hypothesis has been rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis, according to the book " Research Methods in Psychology " (​​BCcampus, 2015). 

There are other ways to describe an alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis above does not specify a direction of the effect, only that there will be a difference between the two groups. That type of prediction is called a two-tailed hypothesis. If a hypothesis specifies a certain direction — for example, that people who take a protein supplement will gain more muscle than people who don't — it is called a one-tailed hypothesis, according to William M. K. Trochim , a professor of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University.

Sometimes, errors take place during an experiment. These errors can happen in one of two ways. A type I error is when the null hypothesis is rejected when it is true. This is also known as a false positive. A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false. This is also known as a false negative, according to the University of California, Berkeley . 

A hypothesis can be rejected or modified, but it can never be proved correct 100% of the time. For example, a scientist can form a hypothesis stating that if a certain type of tomato has a gene for red pigment, that type of tomato will be red. During research, the scientist then finds that each tomato of this type is red. Though the findings confirm the hypothesis, there may be a tomato of that type somewhere in the world that isn't red. Thus, the hypothesis is true, but it may not be true 100% of the time.

Scientific theory vs. scientific hypothesis

The best hypotheses are simple. They deal with a relatively narrow set of phenomena. But theories are broader; they generally combine multiple hypotheses into a general explanation for a wide range of phenomena, according to the University of California, Berkeley . For example, a hypothesis might state, "If animals adapt to suit their environments, then birds that live on islands with lots of seeds to eat will have differently shaped beaks than birds that live on islands with lots of insects to eat." After testing many hypotheses like these, Charles Darwin formulated an overarching theory: the theory of evolution by natural selection.

"Theories are the ways that we make sense of what we observe in the natural world," Tanner said. "Theories are structures of ideas that explain and interpret facts." 

• Read more about writing a hypothesis, from the American Medical Writers Association.
• Find out why a hypothesis isn't always necessary in science, from The American Biology Teacher.
• Learn about null and alternative hypotheses, from Prof. Essa on YouTube .

Encyclopedia Britannica. Scientific Hypothesis. Jan. 13, 2022. https://www.britannica.com/science/scientific-hypothesis

Karl Popper, "The Logic of Scientific Discovery," Routledge, 1959.

California State University, Bakersfield, "Formatting a testable hypothesis." https://www.csub.edu/~ddodenhoff/Bio100/Bio100sp04/formattingahypothesis.htm  

Karl Popper, "Conjectures and Refutations," Routledge, 1963.

Price, P., Jhangiani, R., & Chiang, I., "Research Methods of Psychology — 2nd Canadian Edition," BCcampus, 2015.‌

University of Miami, "The Scientific Method" http://www.bio.miami.edu/dana/161/evolution/161app1_scimethod.pdf  

William M.K. Trochim, "Research Methods Knowledge Base," https://conjointly.com/kb/hypotheses-explained/  

University of California, Berkeley, "Multiple Hypothesis Testing and False Discovery Rate" https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~hhuang/STAT141/Lecture-FDR.pdf  

University of California, Berkeley, "Science at multiple levels" https://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/0_0_0/howscienceworks_19

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