essay on population growth and distribution

Understanding Global Change

Discover why the climate and environment changes, your place in the Earth system, and paths to a resilient future.

Population growth

Population growth is the increase in the number of humans on Earth. For most of human history our population size was relatively stable. But with innovation and industrialization, energy, food , water , and medical care became more available and reliable. Consequently, global human population rapidly increased, and continues to do so, with dramatic impacts on global climate and ecosystems. We will need technological and social innovation to help us support the world’s population as we adapt to and mitigate climate and environmental changes.

World human population growth from 10,000 BC to 2019 AD. Data from: The United Nations

Human population growth impacts the Earth system in a variety of ways, including:

• Increasing the extraction of resources from the environment. These resources include fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal), minerals, trees , water , and wildlife , especially in the oceans. The process of removing resources, in turn, often releases pollutants and waste that reduce air and water quality , and harm the health of humans and other species.
• Increasing the burning of fossil fuels for energy to generate electricity, and to power transportation (for example, cars and planes) and industrial processes.
• Increase in freshwater use for drinking, agriculture , recreation, and industrial processes. Freshwater is extracted from lakes, rivers, the ground, and man-made reservoirs.
• Increasing ecological impacts on environments. Forests and other habitats are disturbed or destroyed to construct urban areas including the construction of homes, businesses, and roads to accommodate growing populations. Additionally, as populations increase, more land is used for agricultural activities to grow crops and support livestock. This, in turn, can decrease species populations , geographic ranges , biodiversity , and alter interactions among organisms.
• Increasing fishing and hunting , which reduces species populations of the exploited species. Fishing and hunting can also indirectly increase numbers of species that are not fished or hunted if more resources become available for the species that remain in the ecosystem.
• Increasing the transport of invasive species , either intentionally or by accident, as people travel and import and export supplies. Urbanization also creates disturbed environments where invasive species often thrive and outcompete native species. For example, many invasive plant species thrive along strips of land next to roads and highways.
• The transmission of diseases . Humans living in densely populated areas can rapidly spread diseases within and among populations. Additionally, because transportation has become easier and more frequent, diseases can spread quickly to new regions.

Can you think of additional cause and effect relationships between human population growth and other parts of the Earth system?

Visit the burning of fossil fuels , agricultural activities , and urbanization pages to learn more about how processes and phenomena related to the size and distribution of human populations affect global climate and ecosystems.

Investigate

Learn more in these real-world examples, and challenge yourself to  construct a model  that explains the Earth system relationships.

• The Ecology of Human Populations: Thomas Malthus
• A Pleistocene Puzzle: Extinction in South America

Links to Learn More

• United Nations World Population Maps
• Scientific American: Does Population Growth Impact Climate Change?

This page has been archived and is no longer updated

An Introduction to Population Growth

Why Study Population Growth?

Population ecology is the study of how populations — of plants, animals, and other organisms — change over time and space and interact with their environment. Populations are groups of organisms of the same species living in the same area at the same time. They are described by characteristics that include:

• population size: the number of individuals in the population
• population density: how many individuals are in a particular area
• population growth: how the size of the population is changing over time.

If population growth is just one of many population characteristics, what makes studying it so important?

First, studying how and why populations grow (or shrink!) helps scientists make better predictions about future changes in population sizes and growth rates. This is essential for answering questions in areas such as biodiversity conservation (e.g., the polar bear population is declining, but how quickly, and when will it be so small that the population is at risk for extinction?) and human population growth (e.g., how fast will the human population grow, and what does that mean for climate change, resource use, and biodiversity?).

Studying population growth also helps scientists understand what causes changes in population sizes and growth rates. For example, fisheries scientists know that some salmon populations are declining, but do not necessarily know why. Are salmon populations declining because they have been overfished by humans? Has salmon habitat disappeared? Have ocean temperatures changed causing fewer salmon to survive to maturity? Or, maybe even more likely, is it a combination of these things? If scientists do not understand what is causing the declines, it is much more difficult for them to do anything about it. And remember, learning what is probably not affecting a population can be as informative as learning what is.

Finally, studying population growth gives scientists insight into how organisms interact with each other and with their environments. This is especially meaningful when considering the potential impacts of climate change and other changes in environmental factors (how will populations respond to changing temperatures? To drought? Will one population prosper after another declines?).

Ok, studying population growth is important...where should we start?

Population Growth Basics and the American Bison

The US government, along with private landowners, began attempts to save the American bison from extinction by establishing protected herds in the late 1800's and early 1900's. The herds started small, but with plentiful resources and few predators, they grew quickly. The bison population in northern Yellowstone National Park (YNP) increased from 21 bison in 1902 to 250 in only 13 years (Figure 1, Gates et al . 2010).

The yearly increase in the northern YNP bison population between 1902 and 1915 can be described as exponential growth . A population that grows exponentially adds increasingly more individuals as the population size increases. The original adult bison mate and have calves, those calves grow into adults who have calves, and so on. This generates much faster growth than, say, adding a constant number of individuals to the population each year.

Exponential growth works by leveraging increases in population size, and does not require increases in population growth rates. The northern YNP bison herd grew at a relatively constant rate of 18% per year between 1902 and 1915 (Gates et al . 2010). This meant that the herd only added between 4 and 9 individuals in the first couple of years, but added closer to 50 individuals by 1914 when the population was larger and more individuals were reproducing. Speaking of reproduction, how often a species reproduces can affect how scientists describe population growth (see Figure 2 to learn more).

Figure 2: Bison young are born once a year — how does periodic reproduction affect how we describe population growth? The female bison in the YNP herd all have calves around the same time each year — in spring from April through the beginning of June (Jones et al. 2010) — so the population size does not increase gradually, but jumps up at calving time. This type of periodic reproduction is common in nature, and very different from animals like humans, who have babies throughout the year. When scientists want to describe the growth of populations that reproduce periodically, they use geometric growth. Geometric growth is similar to exponential growth because increases in the size of the population depend on the population size (more individuals having more offspring means faster growth!), but under geometric growth timing is important: geometric growth depends on the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of each breeding season. Exponential growth and geometric growth are similar enough that over longer periods of time, exponential growth can accurately describe changes in populations that reproduce periodically (like bison) as well as those that reproduce more constantly (like humans). Photo courtesy of Guimir via Wikimedia Commons.

The power of exponential growth is worth a closer look. If you started with a single bacterium that could double every hour, exponential growth would give you 281,474,977,000,000 bacteria in just 48 hours! The YNP bison population reached a maximum of 5000 animals in 2005 (Plumb et al . 2009), but if it had continued to grow exponentially as it did between 1902 and 1915 (18% growth rate), there would be over 1.3 billion (1,300,000,000) bison in the YNP herd today. That's more than thirteen times larger than the largest population ever thought to have roamed the entire plains region!

The potential results may seem fantastic, but exponential growth appears regularly in nature. When organisms enter novel habitats and have abundant resources, as is the case for invading agricultural pests, introduced species , or during carefully managed recoveries like the American bison, their populations often experience periods of exponential growth. In the case of introduced specie s or agricultural pests, exponential population growth can lead to dramatic environmental degradation and significant expenditures to control pest species (Figure 3).

After the Boom: Limits to Growing Out of Control

Let's think about the conditions that allowed the bison population to grow between 1902 and 1915. The total number of bison in the YNP herd could have changed because of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (immigration is individuals coming in from outside the population, emigration is individuals leaving to go elsewhere). The population was isolated, so no immigration or emigration occurred, meaning only births and deaths changed the size of the population. Because the population grew, there must have been more births than deaths, right? Right, but that is a simple way of telling a more complicated story. Births exceeded deaths in the northern YNP bison herd between 1902 and 1915, allowing the population to grow, but other factors such as the age structure of the population, characteristics of the species such as lifespan and fecundity , and favorable environmental conditions, determined how much and how fast.

Changes in the factors that once allowed a population to grow can explain why growth slows or even stops. Figure 4 shows periods of growth, as well as periods of decline, in the number of YNP bison between 1901 and 2008. Growth of the northern YNP bison herd has been limited by disease and predation, habitat loss and fragmentation, human intervention, and harsh winters (Gates et al . 2010, Plumb et al . 2009), resulting in a current population that typically falls between 2500 and 5000, well below the 1.3 billion bison that continued exponential growth could have generated.

Factors that enhance or limit population growth can be divided into two categories based on how each factor is affected by the number of individuals occupying a given area — or the population's density . As population size approaches the carrying capacity of the environment, the intensity of density-dependent factors increases. For example, competition for resources, predation, and rates of infection increase with population density and can eventually limit population size. Other factors, like pollution, seasonal weather extremes, and natural disasters — hurricanes, fires, droughts, floods, and volcanic eruptions — affect populations irrespective of their density, and can limit population growth simply by severely reducing the number of individuals in the population.

The idea that uninhibited exponential growth would eventually be limited was formalized in 1838 by mathematician Pierre-Francois Verhulst. While studying how resource availability might affect human population growth, Verhulst published an equation that limits exponential growth as the size of the population increases. Verhulst's equation is commonly referred to as the logistic equation , and was rediscovered and popularized in 1920 when Pearl and Reed used it to predict population growth in the United States. Figure 5 illustrates logistic growth: the population grows exponentially under certain conditions, as the northern YNP bison herd did between 1902 and 1915, but is limited as the population increases toward the carrying capacity of its environment. Check out the article by J. Vandermeer (2010) for a more detailed explanation of the equations that describe exponential and logistic growth.

Logistic growth is commonly observed in nature as well as in the laboratory (Figure 6), but ecologists have observed that the size of many populations fluctuates over time rather than remaining constant as logistic growth predicts. Fluctuating populations generally exhibit a period of population growth followed a period of population decline, followed by another period of population growth, followed by...you get the picture.

Populations can fluctuate because of seasonal or other regular environmental cycles (e.g., daily, lunar cycles), and will also sometimes fluctuate in response to density-dependent population growth factors. For example, Elton (1924) observed that snowshoe hare and lynx populations in Canadian boreal forests fluctuated over time in a fairly regular cycle (Figure 7). More importantly, they fluctuated, one after the other, in a predictable way: when the snowshoe hare population increased, the lynx population tended to rise (plentiful food for the lynx!); when the lynx population increased, the snowshoe hare population tended to fall (lots of predation on the hare!); when the snowshoe hare...(and the cycle continues).

It is also possible for populations to decline to extinction if changing conditions cause death rates to exceed birth rates by a large enough margin or for a long enough period of time. Native species are currently declining at unprecedented rates — one important reason why scientists study population ecology. On the other hand, as seen in the YNP bison population, if new habitats or resources are made available, a population that has been declining or relatively stable over a long period of time can experience a new phase of rapid, long-term growth.

What about Human Population Growth?

The growth of the global human population shown in Figure 8 appears exponential, but viewing population growth in different geographic regions shows that the human population is not growing the same everywhere. Some countries, particularly those in the developing world, are growing rapidly, but in other countries the human population is growing very slowly, or even contracting (Figure 9). Studying the characteristics of populations experiencing different rates of growth helps provide scientists and demographers with insight into the factors important for predicting future human population growth, but it is a complicated task: in addition to the density dependent and independent factors we discussed for the northern Yellowstone National Park bison and other organisms, human population growth is affected by cultural, economic, and social factors that determine not only how the population grows, but also the potential carrying capacity of the Earth.

biodiversity : The variety of types of organisms, habitats, and ecosystems on Earth or in a particular place.

exponential growth : Continuous increase or decrease in a population in which the rate of change is proportional to the number of individuals at any given time.

age structure : The distribution of individuals among age classes within a population.

lifespan : How long an individual lives, or how long individuals of a given species live on average .

fecundity : The rate at which an individual produces offspring.

density : Referring to a population, the number of individuals per unit area or volume; referring to a substance, the weight per unit volume.

carrying capacity : The number of individuals in a population that the resources of a habitat can support; the asymptote, or plateau, of the logistic and other sigmoid equations for population growth.

logistic equation : The mathematical expression for a particular sigmoid growth curve in which the percentage rate of increase decreases in linear fashion as the population size increases.

native species : A species that occurs in a particular region or ecosystem by natural processes, rather than by accidental or deliberate introduction by humans.

introduced species : A species that originated in a different region that becomes established in a new region, often due to deliberate or accidental release by humans.

demographers : Demography is the study of the age structure and growth rate of populations.

References and Recommended Reading

Dary, D. A. The Buffalo Book: The Full Saga of the American Animal . Chicago, IL: Swallow Press, 1989.

Elton, C. Periodic fluctuations in the numbers of animals: Their causes and effects. British Journal of Experimental Biology 2, 119-163 (1924).

Gates, C. C. et al . eds. American Bison: Status Survey and Conservation Guidelines 2010 . Gland, Switzerland: International Union for Conservation of Nature, 2010.

Hornaday, W. T. The Extermination of the American Bison, With a Sketch of its Discovery and Life History . Annual Report 1887. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution, 1889.

Jones, J. D. et al . Timing of parturition events in Yellowstone bison Bison bison : Implications for bison conservation and brucellosis transmission risk to cattle. Wildlife Biology 16, 333-339 (2010).

Livingston, M., Osteen, C. & Roberts, D. Regulating agricultural imports to keep out foreign pests and disease. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Amber Waves 6, " http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/September08/Features/RegulatingAgImports.htm " (2008).

Pearl, R. & Reed, L. J. On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 6, 275-288 (1920).

Plumb, G. E. et al . Carrying capacity, migration, and dispersal in Yellowstone bison. Biological Conservation 142, 2377-2387 (2009).

Rohrbaugh, R., Lammertink, M. & Piorkowski, M. Final Report: 2007 - 08 Surveys for Ivory-Billed Woodpecker and Bird Counts in Louisiana . Ithaca, NY: Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, 2009.

Shaw, J. H. How many bison originally populated western rangelands? Rangelands 17, 148-150 (1995).

Vandermeer, J. How Populations Grow: The Exponential and Logistic Equations. Nature Education Knowledge 1 (2010).

Flag Inappropriate

Email your Friend

•  |  Lead Editor: 

Within this Subject (22)

• Basic (12)
• Intermediate (5)
• Advanced (5)

Other Topic Rooms

• Ecosystem Ecology
• Physiological Ecology
• Population Ecology
• Community Ecology
• Global and Regional Ecology
• Conservation and Restoration
• Animal Behavior
• Teach Ecology
• Earth's Climate: Past, Present, and Future
• Terrestrial Geosystems
• Marine Geosystems
• Scientific Underpinnings
• Paleontology and Primate Evolution
• Human Fossil Record
• The Living Primates

© 2014 Nature Education

• Press Room |
• Terms of Use |
• Privacy Notice |

Visual Browse

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• China CDC Wkly
• v.3(28); 2021 Jul 9

Major Trends in Population Growth Around the World

1 United Nations Population Division, New York, USA

Kirill Andreev

Matthew e. dupre.

2 Department of Population Health Sciences & Department of Sociology, Duke University, North Carolina, USA

The world’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The decelerating growth is mainly attributable to fertility declines in a growing number of countries. However, there are substantial variations in the future trends of populations across regions and countries, with sub-Saharan African countries being projected to have most of the increase. Population momentum plays an important role in determining the future population growth in many countries and areas where fertility is in a rapid transition. With declines in fertility, the world’s population is unprecedentedly aging, and the numbers of households with smaller sizes are growing. International migration is also on the rise since the beginning of this century. The world’s population is also urbanizing due to increased internal rural to urban migration. Nevertheless, there are uncertainties in future population growth, not only because there are uncertainties in the future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, but also because there are many other factors that could affect these trajectories. International consensus on climate change and ecosystem protections may trigger population control policies, and the ongoing pandemic is likely to have some impact on mortality, migration, or even fertility.

The future trend of a population is an outcome of the interactive dynamics between its existing age structure and its future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. An abundance of scientific evidence shows that population growth in a country is connected to socioeconomic growth, environmental protection, health promotion, quality of life, and social stability. Understanding the growth dynamics and future trends of populations around the world is crucial to achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other long-term development goals. This article reviews the main features of recent and future trends in population growth for the world, major regions, and selected countries. We mainly rely on the estimates and projections of the 2019 Revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP 2019) produced by the United Nations Population Division ( 1 ) to focus on 201 countries and areas with 90,000 inhabitants or more in mid-2020.

MAJOR TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH

Continuing gowth of the world population at a slowing pace.

The world’s population continues to grow, reaching 7.8 billion by mid-2020, rising from 7 billion in 2010, 6 billion in 1998, and 5 billion in 1986. The average annual growth rate was around 1.1% in 2015–2020, which steadily decreased after it peaked at 2.3% in the late 1960s. Among 201 countries and areas, 73 countries had a smaller growth rate in 2010–2020 compared with the previous decade; and out of these 73 countries, more than 60 are developing countries. The slowing pace of the population growth is closely related to declines in fertility. Globally, the total fertility rate was 2.4 births per woman of reproductive age in 2020, decreasing from 2.7 in 2000, 3.7 in 1980, and 5.0 in 1950. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, the total fertility rate has been below replacement level (2.1 births per woman) for a few decades, which is the level required to ensure the replacement of generations in low-mortality countries. In a few of these countries, total fertility rates have even fallen to extremely low levels, 1.5 births per woman, and even below 1.5 in some countries, for the past several decades.

There is a myriad of reasons for the slowing pace of population growth that can be attributed to declining fertility in the context of a demographic transition mainly caused by modernization. In the process of modernization, improved food security, nutrition, and public health, advances in medical technology and socioeconomic development, coupled with improved safe and effective family planning methods and services have largely improved child survival, which has enabled couples to have a desired number of children without having too many births. Improved education, enhanced women’s empowerment, increased financial security in old age, and personal aspirations for more opportunities regarding self-career development and a better life have all reshaped young couples’ views and behaviors about postponements of marriage and childbearing, and the numbers and timing of childbirths ( 2 - 3 ). All of these forces have led to reductions in fertility, and eventually triggered a demographic transition. By 2020, all countries and areas either have completed their demographic transition or are in the middle of the transition.

However, even if fertility levels declined rapidly, the world population would likely continue to grow because of the momentum of population growth — a force that drives future population growth resulting from the existing age structure. Globally, more than two-thirds of the projected increase of 1.9 billion in population from 2020 to 2050 could be attributable to population momentum. In other words, population momentum is projected to produce 1.3 billion more people between 2020 and 2050, or 17% of the total in 2020. The contributions of above-replacement level fertility and declining mortality to the projected increase in 2020–2050 are 317 million (16% of the total increase) and 295 million (15%), respectively. The increases attributable to above-replacement level fertility and mortality are roughly equal to 4% each of the total in 2020.

Although the growing trend in the world population is expected to continue throughout this century at a slowing pace, there is uncertainty about future trends, and the uncertainty gets wider with time. For example, the world population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100, but their 95% projection intervals could be between 9.4 and 10.1 billion for 2050 and between 9.4 and 12.7 billion for 2100 ( Figure 1 ).

Growth of the world population, 1950–2100.

Note: The solid blue line is an estimate, whereas the dotted blue line is a projection under the medium variant and the shadow is the 95% projection intervals. Source: Drawn from the World Population Prospects 2019 ( 1 ).

Large Variations in Growth Patterns Across Regions and Countries

There are substantial variations in the future trends of populations across regions and countries. Overall, most countries and areas in the world are projected to continue growing in 2020–2050. However, in the second half of the century, more than half of the countries and areas are projected to witness a decline. Among eight SDG regions, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for most of the increase in the world’s population throughout the century, and its global share of the population is projected to increase steadily. By contrast, the global shares of the population by other SDG regions are projected to decrease over time. Globally, there are 54 countries which have an annual growth rate twice as fast as the world average rate in 2020–2050, and 41 of these countries, or slightly more than three-fourths, are located in sub-Saharan Africa. Indeed, more than a half of the global additional 2.0 billion people projected increase between 2020 and 2050 are from countries in sub-Saharan Africa (regardless of scenarios), and such a proportion is projected to be about 90% in 2050–2100. Overall, about 23–38 million more people annually from sub-Saharan countries are projected to be added to the world’s total population. As a result, the current total population of sub-Saharan African countries, which was 1.1 billion in 2020 (or similar to the Europe and Northern America combined), is projected to climb to 3.8 billion by 2100 with a 95% projection interval between 3.0 and 4.8 billion. By contrast, the total population of Europe and Northern America combined will maintain its current level by 2100 ( Figure 2 ).

Population growth by Sustainable Development Goals region, 1950–2100.

*: excluding Australia and New Zealand. Note: The solid color lines are estimates, whereas the dotted color lines are projections under the medium variant and the color shadows are the 95% projection intervals. Source: Drawn from the World Population Prospects 2019 ( 1 ).

Although a fast-growing population in some developing countries provides a large young population base, which could be a favorable factor for economic growth when this young population enters the labor force, these countries are facing challenges associated with a large young population, such as low access to education among children (especially among girls), relatively high levels of infant, child, and maternal mortality, and relatively high unmet needs in family planning services. High fertility has also caused young couples to have unwanted pregnancies and births that otherwise could relieve them of childbearing and childrearing obligations for other opportunities of human development ( 2 ).

Another major feature of the world’s future population growth is that the majority of the projected increase in the world’s total population is attributed to a very few populous (or fast growing) countries. For example, under the medium variant of WPP 2019, nine countries (India, United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the United Republic of Tanzania) are projected to account for more than half of the increase in global population between 2020 and 2050. Except for the United States, all are developing countries and are low-income or low-middle-income countries. Low education among children, high fertility levels, high maternal mortality, and high unmet needs in family planning services in many of these countries are major obstacles for achieving SDGs ( 4 ).

In contrast to most countries where populations are projected to increase in 2020–2050, populations in some countries are projected to decline. There were 18 countries and areas, mostly in Europe, that had a negative population growth rate in the last 3 decades (1990–2020), and the number of countries and areas with a negative growth rate is projected to reach 46 in the next 3 decades (2020–2050), including several Asian countries. Almost all countries in Latin American and the Caribbean are projected to continue to grow in 2020–2050, but many of them are projected to be on a declining track in 2050–2100.

China, the most populated country in the contemporary world, had a total population of 1.43 billion in 2020 and was a major contributor to the world’s population growth over the past several decades. Under the medium variant of WPP 2019 ( Figure 3 ), China is projected to have some loss in its total population, with 1.40 billion by 2050, after peaking at 1.46 billion around 2030. Japan has seen the largest losses in population size since the beginning of this century; however, China is projected to eclipse this and will become the largest country with a decreasing population (of 30 million by 2050). By 2100, China is projected to have a loss of more than a quarter of its current size. For India, the world’s second most populous country in the contemporary world, it is projected to continue to grow and will overtake China as the largest population in 2025–2030, reaching 1.64 billion by 2050. However, India is projected to witness population decline after reaching its peak around 1.65 billion in 2055–2060 due to falling fertility. By 2100, India is projected to reach 1.45 billion and to have the second largest loss in population in 2050–2100 after China, followed by Brazil and Bangladesh, ranking the third and fourth largest losses in population, respectively.

Population growth for selected populous countries, 1950–2100.

Note: The solid color lines are estimates, whereas the dotted color lines are projections under the medium variant and color shadows are the 95% projection intervals. Source: Drawn from the World Population Prospects 2019 ( 1 ).

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that there is uncertainty in the future growth of populations and the uncertainty gets wider in the more distant future. For example, the 95% projected low and high bounds for China could be 1.32 to 1.50 billion by 2050, and 0.82 to 1.33 billion by 2100, respectively. The corresponding figures for India are 1.47 to 1.81 billion by 2050, and 8.87 to 2.18 billion by 2100 ( Figure 3 ).

Contributions of Population Momentum, Fertility, and Mortality to Population Growth

Future population growth depends on population momentum, future fertility, mortality, and migration trends. The population momentum refers to an inherent driving force for population growth resulted from the existing age structure. A young age structure leads to increases in population even if fertility is kept constantly at replacement level, whereas an older age structure could lead slower growth or even decreases in population ( 5 ).

There is a large variation in the contribution of these components to future population growth for individual countries and regions. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to the total population in 2020, the total increase in population due to population momentum between 2020 and 2050 is projected to be equal to 40% of the 2020 total; the increase in population due to higher fertility (above replacement level) is projected to be equal to 53% of the 2020 total. The contributions by mortality and migration are very small. In Europe, both low fertility and population momentum are projected to cause population losses between 2020 and 2050. Although improvements in mortality and increasing migration are projected to offset some of the population losses in this period, the overall trend in population size is projected to decline. In Northern America, the population is expected to continue to grow in 2020–2050 largely fueled by declines in mortality and positive net migration, and, to a lesser extent, by positive population momentum. This growth is expected to be partially dampened by the negative contribution of low fertility.

In Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, the increases in population between 2020 and 2050 due to population momentum and improved mortality are projected to be equal to 5% and 3% of its current total, respectively; whereas low fertility in the regions is projected to bring negative population growth by 5% of its current total. The contribution of migration is negligible. Trends in China are similar to this regional pattern, although the actual levels are somewhat different. In Japan, however, the overall pattern is close to that of Europe rather than that of their geographical region.

In Central and Southern Asia, while fertility is projected to bring zero growth to the future population, population momentum is projected to add one-quarter of its population to the current total. The contributions of mortality and migration in this region are negligible. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the increases in population are driven mostly by population momentum, with an additional (although small) contribution of improved mortality. Fertility is projected to contribute significantly to population decline, about 5% of the current population size.

Unprecedented Challenges of Population Aging in Many Countries

With progress along the demographic transition, coupled with other societal developments, most countries have experienced declining fertility and improved mortality, marked by the elimination/reduction of many fatal infectious diseases that have prolonged life expectancy. Global life expectancy at birth has reached 73 years in 2020, 7 years more than that in 2000, and nearly 30 years more than that in 1950. It has been documented that life expectancy at birth for the best performing countries in history have witnessed an increase of 2.0–2.5 years per decade over the last few centuries ( 4 ). It is now projected that global life expectancy at birth will reach 77 years by 2050 and 82 years by 2100. Life expectancy at birth could even be over 95 years by 2100 in Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Spain, although it is projected to remain below 80 years in some African countries.

Paralleling the unprecedented rise in life expectancy is the unprecedented growth of population aging ( 6 ). A population is typically considered an aging population if the proportion of its adults aged 65 or older (or old-age proportion) is over 7%. Likewise, it is called an aged, a super-aged, and an ultra-aged population if the old-age proportion is over 14%, 21%, and 28%, respectively ( 7 ). Globally, the proportion of people aged 65 or older reached 9.3% in 2020, rising from 6.9% in 2000, and 5.1% in 1950 ( Table 1 ). The global old-age proportion is projected to reach 15.9% in 2050 and 22.4% in 2100.

In some developed countries (or countries with rapid fertility declines), the proportion of older people is much higher. For example, the old-age proportion in Japan, the most aged population in the contemporary world, was 28.4% in 2020, rising from 17.0% in 2000, and 4.9% in 1950. Table 1 shows that by 2050, nearly 58% of the 201 countries are projected to be in an aged society, and nearly 15% of these countries are projected to be in an ultra-aged society; in comparison to the less than 30% of countries in an aged society in 2020 and only one country in an ultra-aged society (Japan). By 2100, nearly 90% of these countries are projected to be an aged society, and more than half are project to be an ultra-aged society.

Population aging has had a profound impact on old-age care, pension and social security systems, housing, savings, labor supplies, social services, and in many other sectors ( 6 ). These challenges are more pressing for developing countries because they are facing these challenges within a much shorter time frame, and long before they become economically well off, to prepare for such rapid population aging (“aging before rich”). With few exceptions (e.g., Japan), most developed countries took 40 to 120 years to transform from an aging population (7%) to an aged population (14%) and took (or will take) 20 to 50 years to transform from an aged society (14%) to a super-aged society (21%). In contrast, most developing countries will take 15–35 years to transform from an aging population to an aged population and 10–30 years to transform from an aged population to a super-aged population. Based on some empirical evidence, and potential trajectories of mortality and fertility, it is projected that the number of years to transform from a super-aged population into an ultra-aged population will be shorter than the number of years transforming from an aged society to a super-aged society for both developed and developing countries. Such an unprecedented growth of older populations in the world has required reforms in pension systems and statutory retirement ages in many countries, especially in more developed countries in order to maintain fiscal sustainability of existing public pension systems ( 8 ).

However, rapid population aging can also open additional windows of opportunity for economic growth — such as a “second economic dividend” when low fertility and prolonged longevity stimulate human capital investments ( 9 ). This is especially the case when population aging is accompanied by better health (i.e., “compression of morbidity”) that has been observed in many older populations ( 10 ). Better health and prolonged longevity could allow labor force participation among older adults to offset downward pressures on economic growth ( 6 ). Research has shown that the benefits of a second dividend are estimated to be larger and more lasting than the first dividend ( 9 ), leaving policymakers an opportunity to optimize transitory economic growth from the first dividend into a sustained one.

Growing Role of International Migration

It is estimated that the number of persons who live outside of their countries of birth reached 281 million in 2020 globally, an increase from 108 million over the amount in 2000 ( 11 ). Although international migration does not have a direct impact on the world’s population growth, and its impact on population growth is usually negligible in most countries compared to other demographic components, it has contributed significantly to the growth of populations in some countries. For example, in the past few decades, international labor migration inflows in several Gulf States have contributed to rapid population growth in these countries. It was estimated that labor immigrants accounted for more than three-fourths of the working-age population in Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in the last couple of decades.

Globally, about two-thirds of international migrants are concentrated in just 20 countries — with the United States as the largest destination country, followed by Germany, Saudi Arabia, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom, which all have over 10 million immigrants. On the other hand, about one-third of all global migrants originated in only 10 countries — with India as the largest out-migration country, followed by Mexico, China, and the Russian Federation, which have over 10 million emigrants. Overall, high-income countries host nearly two-thirds of all international migrants, and Europe continues to host the largest number of migrants in the world, followed by Northern America. The number of male international migrants is slightly higher than that of female migrants. Most international migration is for labor or family reasons. However, the number of forcibly displaced migrants due to humanitarian crises in many parts of the world grew rapidly, reaching 34 million in 2020, an increase from 17 million compared with 2000 ( 11 ).

Migration can contribute to sustainable development in both origin and destination countries, which has been widely acknowledged in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration ( 11 ). As most migrants are working-age adults, positive net migration can also offset a shortage of labor supply and population decline, as well as slow down population aging in destination countries. For countries and areas of origin, as migrants are mostly healthy, highly educated, and skilled young adults, a large scale of out-migration may cause possible brain drains and accelerate population aging. However, migrants’ remittances to countries and areas of origin could improve the livelihood and education of population left behind, boost socioeconomic development, and reduce mortality. All these promote sustainable development in origin countries and areas ( 11 ). Nevertheless, as migrants often face many disadvantages — including language barriers, low social integration and isolation, and a low likelihood of being eligible for pensions, healthcare, and/or education compared with those who are native born — how to better protect their rights and remove obstacles that prevent them from discrimination is a key goal for achieving SDGs and leaving no one behind.

An Urbanizing World

Urbanization, usually measured by the percentage urban (i.e., urban population as a percentage of the total population), is the spatial re-distribution of the population of a country or an area, mainly resulting from internal or domestic migration. Given the close relationships among urbanization, socioeconomic development, and the environment, it is crucial to understand the long-term trends in urbanization in addition to the trends in population size and composition. Just like international migration will not change the world’s population, internal or domestic migration within a country will not change the population of that country. However, internal migration, especially rural-to-urban migration can have a huge impact on the total population in both the origin and destination cities of a given country, which is normally a major driving force for rapid urbanization, such as in the case of China ( 12 ).

The world’s population is urbanizing rapidly. The percentage urban was 56% in 2020, rising from 50% in 2007, 43% in 1990, and less than 30% in 1950 ( Table 2 ). It is projected to reach more than 68% in 2050 ( 13 ). There are large variations in urbanization levels and growth rates across regions and countries, with the percentage urban more than 80% in Northern America and, Latin America and the Caribbean, 75% in Europe, and around 40% in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020. From 2000 to 2020, with the exception of a very few countries, all other countries witnessed an increase in urbanization — with nearly 40 countries having an annual growth rate greater at 1.5%; and all countries are projected to continue to urbanize from 2020 to 2050, albeit with different annual growth rates ranging from 0.01% to over 2.0%. Most developing countries are projected to have a much faster growth rate than developed countries. China has been the biggest contributor to global urbanization from 2000 to 2020, thanks to its massive scale of rural-to-urban migration. From 2020 to 2050, China is projected to continue to play a major role in global urbanization, although India will overtake China as the largest contributor. Nigeria is projected to be the third largest contributor to the world’s urbanization growth in the next three decades ( 13 ).

Fast Growing Numbers of Households with Decreasing Size

All human beings are connected to others by blood or marriage, and generally live together in families or households. Dynamic changes in household size and composition over time are indeed another form of population growth. Households are often a more relevant unit for analyzing energy-related consumption, human impacts on the environment, and likewise sustainable development because energy-related commodities such as water, food, vehicles, housing, and social services are often purchased and consumed by households, rather than by individuals ( 14 - 15 ). There is ample empirical evidence showing that the average size of households has declined steadily over the past several decades for most countries in the world ( 16 ). For example, in Brazil, the average household size declined from 5.1 persons per household in 1960 to 3.3 persons per household in 2010. The corresponding figures were 3.8 and 3.2 for the United Kingdom, and 3.5 and 2.6 for the United States. The average household size for India also declined from 5.8 persons per household in 1980 to around 4.5 persons per household in 2010. China’s household size decreased from 4.7 in 1981 to 3.2 in 2010, and further down to 2.62 in 2020 ( 17 ).

Such decreases in household size have led to faster growth in the number of households as compared to the growth of the population ( 18 ). The faster growth of households will likely persist in the foreseeable future. Globally, the average household size for all countries was around 4 persons per household in 2010, ranging from 2.1 in Finland and Germany to 8 persons per household in Afghanistan ( 16 ). It was estimated that if the average household size had been 2.5 people globally in 2010, the number of households in the world would be 2.7 billion, 0.8 billion more (or a 41% increase) than the current total of 1.9 billion ( 14 ). In addition to declining fertility, higher divorce rates, more internal and international migration, and the diminishing norms of co-residence have all contributed to the growth of smaller household sizes ( 16 ).

The living arrangements of older adults is an important component of household composition, which have been receiving increasing attention. The living arrangements of older adults are the result of a nexus of personal preferences, needs, available resources, and culture. Coresidence with adult children and/or grandchildren is very common in many countries and areas in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, where coresidence is usually over 40% (and even reaches over 80% in some countries). In contrast, coresidence is relatively low among older adults in Europe and Northern America, where the most common living arrangement of older adults is living with a spouse only or living alone ( 19 ). With the progress of modernization and advances in socioeconomic development, the number of older adults in many developing countries preferring to live with their spouses only and/or live alone is growing in most countries. In China, for instance, the percentage of those living with only a spouse or alone witnessed a steady increase over the last several decades, from 25% in 1982 to 35% in 2010 ( 20 - 21 ). Research has shown that the living arrangement of older adults is linked to various health outcomes and the use of (in)formal services; which implies that the fast growing trend in the numbers of households coupled with its reducing size could have important implications for the planning of long-term care, housing, and social services in the context of rapid population aging.

Overall, the trends in household size and composition and older adult living arrangements are important for sustainable development, especially when such trends are connected with energy-related consumption and old-age care.

The world’s population is projected to continue to grow at a slowing pace during this century. Such a trend of decelerating growth is mainly due to fertility declines in a growing number of countries. However, many sub-Saharan African countries are projected to have much faster growth than countries in other regions of the world — because many sub-Saharan African countries still have high fertility rates and reductions in fertility have been stalling in recent years. In these countries, more effort is needed to prioritize the enhancement and empowerment of women, improve the availability of safe and effective methods of contraception, promote compulsory education among children, and reduce poverty.

Rapid and sustained declines in fertility could result in a large labor force relative to the number of children and older people in some period(s), creating a window of opportunity for socioeconomic growth, commonly known as the “first demographic dividend (population bonus)” ( 9 ). With progress along the demographic transition in a country, the young bulk of the labor force enters the late stages of the labor force. This leads to higher per capita consumption due to this population’s greater resources, and eventually creating another window of opportunity for economic growth in that country, or the “second demographic dividend” ( 9 ). Most developing countries are (or will be) in their first window of opportunity, and many developed countries are (or will be) in their second window of opportunity.

However, it should be emphasized that the demographic dividends are opportunities for economic growth and should not be taken for granted. The duration of each window of opportunity is limited and does not last forever. Instead, the realization of demographic dividends depends on appropriate policies adopted in other related sectors and the country’s ability to implement these policies ( 22 ). Research has shown that female labor force participation, educational attainment of the labor force, the potentiality of the old-age population entering the workforce, people's health and wellbeing, urbanization, investments (especially foreign direct invests), high technology, and international trades are all important factors determining the outcomes of demographic dividends ( 22 ). It is thus important for different countries to formulate socioeconomic policy packages that are consistent with their own population trends and characteristics to reap the maximum benefits of the demographic dividends. For countries in the first (window) stage, promoting quality education, enhancing women’s empowerment, creating more jobs, and attracting more foreign direct investments may be a priority. For aging countries, especially aged and super-aged countries, postponing the retirement age, developing a sound long-term care system, promoting home- and community-based social services, and creating social environments without ageism are effective solutions to ensure that all adults achieve healthy aging and age in the right place. However, it is also worth noting that with prolonged life expectancy and improvements in the health of all people, the threshold of old age will likely increase, which means the size, the length, and the timing of these (window) periods could be prolonged.

Nevertheless, there are uncertainties in future population growth, not only because there are uncertainties in the future trends for the three demographic components (fertility, mortality, and migration), but also because many other factors can affect a population’s future trajectories. For example, the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted almost every nation and profoundly affected every member of a society. By mid-2021, the pandemic has caused more than 3.8 million deaths worldwide — with older people being the hardest hit. The excess deaths across countries range from 5 deaths per million population to more than 1,000 deaths per million population in the past 1.5 years. The lockdown policies implemented in most countries have greatly reduced both internal and international migration; and it may take years to reach pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. For the pandemic’s impact on fertility, it is too early to draw any reliable conclusions at this point. Some evidence suggests that there is an increase in child marriages and adolescent fertility, yet evidence in some countries shows a decrease in fertility in 2020, the first year of the pandemic. Based on historical evidence, we would expect a relatively high level of fertility in the post-disaster or post-pandemic period ( 23 ). The future trends in population growth of a country are also affected by the birth policies of a country. China recently relaxed its birth policies to allow couples to have up to three children ( 24 ). Given its large share of the world’s population, such a relaxation in its birth policy will not only influence China’s own population growth in the future, but also influence the trajectory of the world’s population.

In analyzing future population growth, it is crucial to consider the trends in the size and composition of households. With trends toward smaller households in the near future, how to transform our consumption behaviors to ensure a responsible and sustainable consumption pattern towards achieving SDG should be a priority ( 16 ). Furthermore, given the global trends in urbanization, policies to manage urban growth are needed to ensure equal access to housing, education, healthcare, decent jobs, and friendly living and working environments — with a focus on the needs of the urban poor and other vulnerable groups — so that the benefits of urbanization can be shared by all.

Climate change and environmental degradation are major global concerns in the contemporary world. There is a consensus that population growth, urbanization, unsustainable consumption patterns are important drivers of emissions that have been a cause of the worsening climate and ecosystem ( 25 ). Rapid population growth is one of the key drivers of growing emissions and one of the determinants of vulnerability to its impact ( 2 ). Consequently, slowing population growth could be key to lessen climate risks facing human beings by reducing global emissions in the long-term and by freeing up resources for adaptation ( 2 ).

In summary, the world’s population is projected to grow throughout the century, albeit at a decreasing rate. Given large variations in population trends across countries, different countries should develop sound policies specific to their own situation to scientifically address the unique challenges related to population growth for achieving SDGs and other long-term socioeconomic development goals.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not reflect those of the United Nations or Duke University.

Conflicts of interest : No conflicts of interest.

Essay on Population Growth for Students and Children

500+ words essay on population growth.

There are currently 7.7 billion people on our planet. India itself has a population of 1.3 billion people. And the population of the world is rising steadily year on year. This increase in the population, i.e. the number of people inhabiting our planet is what we call population growth. In this essay on population growth, we will see the reasons and the effects of this phenomenon on our planet and our societies.

One important feature of population growth is that over the last century it has shown exponential growth. When the pattern of increase is by a fixed quantity, we call this linear growth, for example, 3, 5, 7, 9 and so on. Exponential growth shows an increase by a fixed percentage, for example, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and so on. This exponential growth is the reason our population has seen such an immense increase over the past century and a half.

Causes of Population Growth

To fully understand the phenomenon, in this essay on population growth we will discuss some of its causes. Understanding the reasons for such exponential growth will help us better understand how to plan for the future. So let us begin with one of the main causes, which is the decline in the mortality rate.

Over the last century, we have made some very significant and notable advancements in medicine, science, and technology. We have invented vaccines, found new treatments and even almost completely eradicated some life-threatening diseases. This means that people now have a much higher life expectancy than their ancestors.

Along with the decrease in mortality rate, these advancements in medicine and science have also boosted the birth rates. We now have ways to help those with infertility and reproductive problems. Hence, birth rates around the world have also seen massive improvements. This coupled with slowing mortality rates has caused overpopulation.

Often the lack of proper education is also stated as the culprit of rampant overpopulation. People around the world need to be made aware of the ill-effects of global overpopulation. Values of family planning and sustainable growth needs to be instilled not only in children but adults also. The lack of this awareness and education is one of the reasons for this growth in population.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Effects of Population Growth

This exponential population growth that our planet has experienced over the last 150 years has had some severe negative effects. The most obvious and common impact is that overpopulation has put a great strain on the natural resources of the earth. As we know, some of the resources available to us come in limited quantities, for example, fossil fuels. When the population explosion happened, these resources are becoming rarer and will one day run out completely.

The increased population had also lead to increased pollution and industrialization . This has adversely affected our natural environment leading to more health problems in the majority of the population. And as the population keeps growing, the poorer countries are running out of food and other resources causing famines and various such disasters.

And as we are currently noticing in India, overpopulation also leads to massive unemployment. Overall the economic and financial condition of densely populated regions deteriorates due to the population explosion.

Customize your course in 30 seconds

Which class are you in.

• Travelling Essay
• Picnic Essay
• Our Country Essay
• My Parents Essay
• Essay on Favourite Personality
• Essay on Memorable Day of My Life
• Essay on Knowledge is Power
• Essay on Gurpurab
• Essay on My Favourite Season
• Essay on Types of Sports

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Download the App

Population Growth

Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.

By: Hannah Ritchie , Lucas Rodés-Guirao , Edouard Mathieu , Marcel Gerber , Esteban Ortiz-Ospina , Joe Hasell and Max Roser

Population growth is one of the most important topics we cover at Our World in Data .

For most of human history, the global population was a tiny fraction of what it is today. Over the last few centuries, the human population has gone through an extraordinary change. In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us.

But after a period of very fast population growth, demographers expect the world population to peak by the end of this century.

On this page, you will find all of our data, charts, and writing on changes in population growth. This includes how populations are distributed worldwide, how this has changed, and what demographers expect for the future.

Key insights on Population Growth

Population cartograms show us where the world’s people are.

Geographical maps show us where the world's landmasses are; not where people are. That means they don't always give us an accurate picture of how global living standards are changing.

One way to understand the distribution of people worldwide is to redraw the world map – not based on the area but according to population.

This is shown here as a population cartogram : a geographical presentation of the world where the size of countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land but by the distribution of people. It’s shown for the year 2018.

As the population size rather than the territory is shown in this map, you can see some significant differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map we’re most familiar with.

Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to – look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. Large countries with a small population shrink in size – look for Canada, Mongolia, Australia, or Russia.

You can find more details on this cartogram in our article about it:

The map we need if we want to think about how global living conditions are changing

By showing us where the people in the world are, cartograms help us understand global living conditions better.

What you should know about this data

• This map is based on the United Nation’s 2017 World Population Prospects report. Our interactive charts show population data from the most recent UN revision. This means there may be minor differences between the figures shown on the map and the latest estimates in our other charts.

The world population has increased rapidly over the last few centuries

The speed of global population growth over the last few centuries has been staggering. For most of human history, the world population was well under one million. 1

As recently as 12,000 years ago, there were only 4 million people worldwide.

The chart shows the rapid increase in the global population since 1700.

The one-billion mark wasn’t broken until the early 1800s. It was only a century ago that there were 2 billion people.

Since then, the global population has quadrupled to eight billion.

Around 108 billion people have ever lived on our planet. This means that today’s population size makes up 6.5% of the total number of people ever born. 2

This increase has been the result of advances in living conditions and health that reduced death rates – especially in children – and increases in life expectancy.

See the data in our interactive visualization

• This data comes from a combination of sources, all detailed in our sources article for our long-term population dataset.

Population growth is no longer exponential – it peaked decades ago

There’s a popular misconception that the global population is growing exponentially. But it’s not.

While the global population is still increasing in absolute numbers, population growth peaked decades ago.

In the chart, we see the global population growth rate per year. This is based on historical UN estimates and its medium projection to 2100.

Global population growth peaked in the 1960s at over 2% per year. Since then, rates have more than halved, falling to less than 1%.

The UN expects rates to continue to fall until the end of the century. In fact, towards the end of the century, it projects negative growth, meaning the global population will shrink instead of grow.

Global population growth, in absolute terms – which is the number of births minus the number of deaths – has also peaked. You can see this in our interactive chart:

Annual population growth

The world has passed "peak child"

Hans Rosling famously coined the term " peak child " for the moment in global demographic history when the number of children stopped increasing.

According to the UN data, the world has passed "peak child", which is defined as the number of children under the age of five.

The chart shows the UN’s historical estimates and projections of the number of children under five.

It estimates that the number of children in the world peaked in 2017. For the coming decades, demographers expect a decades-long plateau before the number will decline more rapidly in the second half of the century.

• These projections are sensitive to the assumptions made about future fertility rates worldwide. Find out more from the UN World Population Division .
• Other sources and scenarios in the UN’s projections suggest that the peak was reached slightly earlier or later. However, most indicate that the world is close to "peak child" and the number of children will not increase in the coming decades.
• The 'ups and downs' in this chart reflect generational effects and 'baby booms' when there are large cohorts of women of reproductive age, and high fertility rates. The timing of these transitions varies across the world.

The UN expects the global population to peak by the end of the century

When will population growth come to an end?

The UN’s historical estimates and latest projections for the global population are shown in the chart.

The UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century – in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people.

• These projections are sensitive to the assumptions made about future fertility and mortality rates worldwide. Find out more from the UN World Population Division .
• Other sources and scenarios in the UN’s projections can produce a slightly earlier or later peak. Most demographers, however, expect that by the end of the century, the global population will have peaked or slowed so much that population growth will be small.

Explore data on Population Growth

Interactive visualization requires JavaScript.

Research & Writing

What would the work look like if each country's area was in proportion to its population?

How has world population growth changed over time?

The world population has increased rapidly in recent centuries. But this is slowing.

Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie

Demographic change

Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end

India's population growth will come to an end: the number of children has already peaked

Hannah Ritchie

More than 8 out of 10 people in the world will live in Asia or Africa by 2100

The global population pyramid: How global demography has changed and what we can expect for the 21st century

Population momentum: If the number of children per woman is falling, why is the population still increasing?

Demographic transition: Why is rapid population growth a temporary phenomenon?

Definitions and sources.

What are the sources for Our World in Data’s population estimates?

Edouard Mathieu and Lucas Rodés-Guirao

The UN has made population projections for more than 50 years – how accurate have they been?

Other articles related to population growth.

Does population growth lead to hunger and famine?

Do famines curb population growth?

More key articles on population growth, how many people die and how many are born each year.

Hannah Ritchie and Edouard Mathieu

Five key findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects

Hannah Ritchie and Edouard Mathieu and Lucas Rodés-Guirao

Which countries are most densely populated?

Interactive charts on population growth.

See, for example, Kremer (1993) – Population growth and technological change: one million BC to 1990 . In the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3, 681-716.

As per 2011 estimates from Carl Haub (2011), “ How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? ” Population Reference Bureau.

Cite this work

Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and organizations. When citing this topic page, please also cite the underlying data sources. This topic page can be cited as:

BibTeX citation

Reuse this work freely

All visualizations, data, and code produced by Our World in Data are completely open access under the Creative Commons BY license . You have the permission to use, distribute, and reproduce these in any medium, provided the source and authors are credited.

The data produced by third parties and made available by Our World in Data is subject to the license terms from the original third-party authors. We will always indicate the original source of the data in our documentation, so you should always check the license of any such third-party data before use and redistribution.

All of our charts can be embedded in any site.

Our World in Data is free and accessible for everyone.

Help us do this work by making a donation.

Population Growth and the Distribution of Human Populations to Effects on the Environment Essay

• To find inspiration for your paper and overcome writer’s block
• As a source of information (ensure proper referencing)
• As a template for you assignment

The world population is growing at a rapid rate. Pundits estimate the world population as over six billion people (Livi-Bacci 8). With such a growth trend, a variety of impacts on resources is evidenced. An uncontrolled growth in human population significantly develops constraints on natural resources and food production (Miller and Scott 5).

There is also a tendency of a large human population exploiting resources and causing an environmental damage. The same negative impact can also be traced in the increased demand on energy. Therefore, exploitation of energy resources causes an energy crisis.

A growing population impact on natural resources focuses on resources such as water, forests and mineral reserves. It is natural that a growing population causes an increased demand on fresh water resources. This has sometimes led to water ownership conflicts. People, communities and countries have engaged on conflicts based on water ownership. This signifies that demand for fresh water is critical to human survival.

The increased demand for water, leads to shortage of water in lakes, dams, wells and rivers. The same impact on natural resources can be traced on deforestation. Demand for land to cultivate, and timber for construction increases with population growth. The use and economic value of minerals increases as the demand from the increasing and available market grows with time. This has seen a lot of mineral reserves depleted by human population over the years.

The survival of humanity has been dependent on energy availability for many years. Industrial civilization has significantly seen increased demand of energy. Although human race has been creative in maintaining the levels and variety of energy resources constant to ensure steady energy supply, there remains a threat of energy availability in the future.

Availability of energy sources like petroleum is not certain in the future considering that oil reserves may soon get depleted. However, the demand for energy has already sparked a need to use non-depleted energy sources like geothermal and wind energy. The current growing population is supported by electricity as an artificial energy source.

A large human population offers enough labor to produce enough food. However, there still remains a large population that cannot afford to feed on a balanced diet. With a large population, poverty becomes a critical issue that contributes to world hunger. The increasing world population has prompted the creation of food production mechanisms such as the genetically modified food products.

Again, distribution of food among the world’s population is dependent on a population’s food demand, economic status and available food production resources. Overpopulation in a region with less food production resources leads to a hunger crisis. It also becomes difficult to distribute food among the people.

An increasing human population puts pressure on the environment. In most cases, negative impacts on the environment are associated with an increasing human population (Livi-Bacci 23). The consumption rates on environmental factors rises due to an increasing demand on natural resources.

Land degradation as a result of increased demand on land for food production and construction also heightens as time progresses. Aspects such as environmental pollution cannot be ignored when population increases. This can be evidenced when industrial civilization by humans leads to disposal of pollutants on the environment. Factors such as global warming have become the current global and environmental threats in recent years. Global warming is predicted to continue in the future if effective measures are not established.

Works Cited

Livi-Bacci, Massimo. A concise history of world population . New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 2012. Print.

Miller Jr, G. Tyler, and Scott E. Spoolman. Living in the Environment . London: CengageBrain. Com, 2011. Print.

• Calcium Is An Essential Mineral For Our Bodies
• Kyanite: Mineral Analysis
• Mineral and Water Function
• Applied Analysis of the Carbon Price Mechanism in Australia
• The 1979 Tangshan Earthquake
• Renewable Energy Co: Engineering Economics and TOP Perspectives of Renewable Energy in Canada
• Marginal Concepts: Advanced Modes of Resource Utilization
• When Human Diet Costs Too Much: Biodiversity as the Ultimate Answer to the Global Problems
• Chicago (A-D)
• Chicago (N-B)

IvyPanda. (2019, January 17). Population Growth and the Distribution of Human Populations to Effects on the Environment. https://ivypanda.com/essays/population-growth-and-the-distribution-of-human-populations-to-effects-on-the-environment/

"Population Growth and the Distribution of Human Populations to Effects on the Environment." IvyPanda , 17 Jan. 2019, ivypanda.com/essays/population-growth-and-the-distribution-of-human-populations-to-effects-on-the-environment/.

IvyPanda . (2019) 'Population Growth and the Distribution of Human Populations to Effects on the Environment'. 17 January.

IvyPanda . 2019. "Population Growth and the Distribution of Human Populations to Effects on the Environment." January 17, 2019. https://ivypanda.com/essays/population-growth-and-the-distribution-of-human-populations-to-effects-on-the-environment/.

1. IvyPanda . "Population Growth and the Distribution of Human Populations to Effects on the Environment." January 17, 2019. https://ivypanda.com/essays/population-growth-and-the-distribution-of-human-populations-to-effects-on-the-environment/.

Bibliography

IvyPanda . "Population Growth and the Distribution of Human Populations to Effects on the Environment." January 17, 2019. https://ivypanda.com/essays/population-growth-and-the-distribution-of-human-populations-to-effects-on-the-environment/.

• Skip to primary navigation
• Skip to main content
• Skip to primary sidebar

UPSC Coaching, Study Materials, and Mock Exams

Enroll in ClearIAS UPSC Coaching Join Now Log In

Call us: +91-9605741000

Population and Associated Issues

Last updated on April 13, 2024 by ClearIAS Team

On November 15, 2022, the total number of humans living on the planet crossed 8 billion as per the data of the United Nations Population Fund 2022. What is India’s share of the world population? How does this population rise impact society? How can be effectively managed? Read on to know more.

According to World Population Prospects 2022 , India will overtake China as the world’s most populated nation in 2023.

In 1804, the number of people on earth reached one billion.

In 1930, it took an additional 126 years to reach the second billion, and a further 30 years to reach the third.

The fifth billion was completed in  13 years, whereas the fourth billion only required 14 years.

Table of Contents

The rapid expansion of humans gives birth to numerous issues in the least developed regions.

It is suggested that immediate action needs to be taken to prevent population growth because failure to do so could result in major issues like environmental harm and a lack of food resources.

In a developing nation like India, the size and growth of the populace are two critical aspects of the demographic phenomenon. India is the second most populated nation in the world after China, with 1,412,495,893 people living there based on the latest United Nations data. India’s populace is equivalent to 7% of the world’s.

India ranks number  2 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population.

India  has overtaken  China  as the world’s most populous country, according to UN  population estimates in April 2023.

Also read: China’s Population Decline

Findings related to India in UN World Population Prospects Report 2022

• India’s growth rate was 2.3% in 1972, while it is currently less than 1%.
• Over this time, the average number of children an Indian woman has in her lifetime has decreased from around 5.4 to under 2.1.
• The Replacement Fertility Rate, at which a population precisely replaces itself from one generation to the next, has reached India.
• With improved access to healthcare and medical developments, both fertility rates and mortality rates have been dropping.
• In the following decades, the population of 0-14 years, 15-24 years, and 65+ will continue to decrease while rising.
• Population expansion in India has been fueled by this decline in early mortality for succeeding generations, which is reflected in higher levels of life expectancy at birth.

What opportunities are brought about by a growing populace?

• First, a growing working-age population presents a chance for increased per-capita economic growth. The “ demographic dividend ,” a time-limited potential for rapid economic growth, is made possible by this change in the age distribution.
• Second, it contributes to the development of a consumption-driven economy that is less reliant on exports to survive. As observed in the example of India, such economies have the propensity to absorb global shocks in a substantially better manner.
• For international investors, the large domestic market is appealing. As a result, it contributes to drawing foreign investment into the domestic economy.
• Third, a growing population increases opportunities for immigration to other nations , which contributes to the creation of more foreign exchange reserves and strengthens a country’s soft power abroad.
• For instance, the Indian Diaspora in the U.S. sends a sizable share of remittances to their families who live in India.

Issues Related to Population Growth

Overpopulation is a severe threat to our existence. It results in issues with politics, society, and the economy, including unequal resource distribution, subpar living circumstances, a broken health system, and others.

Overpopulation causes working institutions to become dysfunctional, undermines all efforts to upgrade the nation’s infrastructure, and makes social welfare programs ineffective.

Social Aspects

• Crime: Populace growth and poverty are directly related, and lack of resources and job prospects result in unemployment. The educated youth who are affected by unemployment are thus driven to commit social crimes like robbery, burglary, prostitution, murder, etc.
• The discontent among educated unemployed youth is reflected in the terrorist actions that we currently witness in several regions of the nation, for instance, Jammu and Kashmir.
• Minority-majority gap: Fears of supremacy over minorities and identity loss might arise in some cultures as a result of overpopulation.
• Thus, it has the potential to fuel communalism and cause rifts in the social fabric based on religion.

Economical Aspects

• Ageing population: Due to an increase in life expectancy, India’s population is ageing. This has increased the percentage of the elderly populace.
• for example, in 2011, Kerala’s share of the populace over 60 years old was 12.6% and Tamil Nadu’s was 10.4%. By 2031, these are anticipated to rise to 20.9% and 18.2%, respectively.
• An increase in the senior populace results in higher healthcare and social security costs. This will significantly increase the state exchequer’s financial burden and cut back on funding for investing in capital assets.
• Unemployment: Although there is a large army of labourers as a result of overpopulation, it is difficult to give each working person a job that pays a living wage due to a lack of capital resources.
• There is a clear distinction between disguised unemployment in rural areas and open unemployment in urban areas.
• Resource Depletion: Overpopulation is a direct cause of excessive resource exploitation, environmental degradation, and deterioration. While resources in India have either remained constant or have expanded arithmetically, generating resource constraints, population growth in India has been geometric.
• Uneven Income Distribution: The government’s need for investment and capital formation is impacted by overpopulation, which has an impact on the government’s overall development efforts.
• Unemployment, unequal food distribution, and rising poverty, which are the main causes of the increase in poverty, make the situation worse.
• Poverty: People become poor as a result of unemployment, unfair income distribution, and a lack of resources.

Political Aspects

• A nation’s politics is impacted by its economic and social conditions. Rising unemployment, poverty, and unequal wealth distribution all have an impact on the nation’s law and order condition.
• Caste politics: Political parties engage in caste-based politics to satisfy their vote bank, which is another factor contributing to the nation’s division.
• The interstate disparity in population distribution: There are significant differences between states in terms of growth and population. Increased migration into states with smaller populations and more established economies will be caused by rising populations in some states.
• Social conflict including the insider-versus-outsider debate may result from this. States already reserve jobs for their residents. Additionally, ageing States will depend on foreign immigrants to sustain economic growth.

Also read: Fertility Rate in India: Reasons for Decline

Environmental Aspects

• Environmental deterioration : Overpopulation is putting pressure on the land, and there is less land available per person.
• Environmental deterioration brought on by population growth includes pollution, biodiversity loss, and global warming, among other things. Cities like Delhi, which are suffering from air pollution, are already seeing the effects of overcrowding.

Health Aspects

• Spread of infectious diseases: One of the main elements affecting people’s health is population growth. Numerous infectious diseases have emerged as a result of concerns like urban overcrowding and environmental changes brought on by population growth.
• Governments are increasingly unable to expand their healthcare facilities and systems due to population increase.

Demographic Disaster

However, if the economic benefits are not inclusive, unable to create jobs, and unable to enhance the living conditions of the youth, the social cohesiveness may suffer significantly.

This optimistic view of the demographic dividend presented in the preceding discussion may be clouded by issues with education, employment prospects, and health care.

A youthful population that lacks skills is underutilized, and is frustrated might stymie economic development and cause a demographic disaster that could destabilize peace and incite conflict.

• The Pratham research states that just about 50% of fifth graders can read books from class two and struggle with basic addition and subtraction.
• Similarly to this, the health system is underdeveloped, and 48% of children are underweight now, contributing to the demographic dividend of the future.
• In eight industries over the last few years, India added the fewest new organized jobs than any other country. In 2017, the contribution from jobs in the unorganized sector increased to 93%, and 60% of those having jobs did not find work for the entire year, indicating persistent underemployment.

Therefore, the only way to prevent this demographic dividend from becoming a demographic disaster is to ensure that there is more employment in the manufacturing and service sectors, and we also need to work on revamping the educational system.

The negative consequences of low employment growth are already evident in the rise in violent protests, terrorism, and other law-and-order issues.

How Can the Population Rise be Effectively Managed?

• Raising the Marriage Age: Fertility is influenced by marriage age. Therefore, raising the marriage age to 21 is a good idea.
• Education dissemination: It influences people’s perspectives. It increases understanding of the significance of family planning and birth control options. Women who have received education are more health-conscious and steer clear of repeated pregnancies, which lowers the birth rate.
• Adoption: Adoption is another powerful tool for reducing the population. Despite costly medical care, some parents are unable to conceive. It is advised that they adopt children from orphanages.
• Economic Measures: Numerous economic actions must be implemented as preventative measures against population expansion. More employment opportunities must be created by the government through policies. It is essential to increase employment opportunities in both urban and rural locations.

India’s Population Policy

• India has had a formal population policy in place for more than 50 years.
• India may have been the first nation to formally declare such a policy in 1952.
• The National Family Planning Programme served as the implementation of the population policy. The fundamental goals of this programme have not changed much throughout the years; they are to attempt and change the rate and pattern of population growth in a socially desirable way.
• Early on, the main goals were to enhance public health standards, raise public knowledge of population and health issues, and cut down the rate of population growth by promoting various birth control methods.
• After the Emergency, the National Family Welfare Program was established instead of the National Family Planning Program, and coercive techniques were abandoned. A wide range of sociodemographic goals is now present for the programme.
• The National Population Policy of 2000 included the development of a fresh set of rules.

National Population Policy (NPP), 2000

The strategy sought to combine community initiative, women’s empowerment, education, and Panchayati Raj institutions into the field of population control. Family welfare is used in place of family planning.

Objectives:

• To provide integrated service delivery for essential reproductive and child health care , as well as to meet the unmet needs for contraceptives, health care infrastructure, and health professionals.
• By 2010, the total fertility rate should reach replacement levels as a medium-term goal.
• long-term goal: to stabilize the population by 2045.

Broad Targets:

• Reduce infant mortality to 30 per cent and improve child and reproductive health by addressing the infrastructure, service, and supply needs for basic reproductive and child health.
• Reduce the percentage of boys and girls who drop out of primary and secondary school to under 20% by making education up to the age of 14 free and mandatory.
• reduce maternal mortality to 100.
• Achieving universal immunization of children against all vaccine-preventable illnesses.
• Achieving 80% of deliveries should take place in medical facilities, 100% should be handled by skilled experts, and 100% of pregnancies, births, and deaths should be registered.
• It envisioned a stable population by 2045, which was later postponed to 2065.
• Enhancing the health and family welfare services and expanding access to contraceptives.

It has drawn criticism on several fronts since it offers monetary incentives for small family norms, even though financial incentives do not alter habits and behaviours based on social norms.

Additionally, NPP-2000 placed a strong emphasis on the function of Panchayati Raj Institutions, although it did not specify exactly what that function would be.

Disincentives are the most common kind of coercion. State-imposed disincentives frequently discriminate against the poor and women.

Government Schemes

To stabilize the population, the government has mostly relied on family planning initiatives. Family welfare programs are a crucial part of the family planning process, and several different ones have been introduced over time:

• The Janani Suraksha Yojana encourages institutional delivery while lowering maternal and newborn fatalities through financial aid.
• The Integrated Child Development Scheme emphasizes the overall health, nutrition, and vaccination of children under the age of six as well as the correct dietary and physical education of expectant and nursing mothers.
• program for universal immunization .
• Pradhan Swasthya Mantri The Suraksha Yojana aims to balance out the disparities between the cost and accessibility of tertiary-level healthcare.
• Program for ASHAs to provide contraceptives to beneficiaries’ homes and doorsteps.
• Plan for ASHAs to ensure birth spacing. An essential component of the ASHA kit now includes the pregnancy testing kit.

Population growth is a serious global concern that has negative socioeconomic, environmental, and health effects. The birth rate, mortality rate, and migration rates are all factors that affect the population growth rate of the country, which is rapidly rising. The demand for greater resources in overpopulated areas leads to deforestation for food production, urban overcrowding, and the spread of terrible diseases.

Since Independence, the government has launched several initiatives to reduce population increase, some of which have been somewhat successful in doing so. There is a need for a more targeted strategy in certain areas that continue to experience rapid population expansion.

Article Written By: Aryadevi E S

Top 10 Best-Selling ClearIAS Courses

Upsc prelims cum mains (pcm) gs course: unbeatable batch 2025 (online), rs.75000   rs.29000, upsc prelims test series (pts) 2025 (online), rs.9999   rs.4999, upsc mains test series (mts) (online), rs.19999   rs.9999, csat course 2025 (online), current affairs course 2025: important news & analysis (online), ncert foundation course (online), essay writing course for upsc cse (online), ethics course for upsc cse (online), fight back: repeaters program with daily tests (online or offline), rs.55000   rs.25000.

About ClearIAS Team

ClearIAS is one of the most trusted learning platforms in India for UPSC preparation. Around 1 million aspirants learn from the ClearIAS every month.

Our courses and training methods are different from traditional coaching. We give special emphasis on smart work and personal mentorship. Many UPSC toppers thank ClearIAS for our role in their success.

Download the ClearIAS mobile apps now to supplement your self-study efforts with ClearIAS smart-study training.

Reader Interactions

Leave a reply cancel reply.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Don’t lose out without playing the right game!

Follow the ClearIAS Prelims cum Mains (PCM) Integrated Approach.

Join ClearIAS PCM Course Now

UPSC Online Preparation

• Union Public Service Commission (UPSC)
• Indian Administrative Service (IAS)
• Indian Police Service (IPS)
• IAS Exam Eligibility
• UPSC Free Study Materials
• UPSC Exam Guidance
• UPSC Prelims Test Series
• UPSC Syllabus
• UPSC Online
• UPSC Prelims
• UPSC Interview
• UPSC Toppers
• UPSC Previous Year Qns
• UPSC Age Calculator
• UPSC Calendar 2024
• About ClearIAS
• ClearIAS Programs
• ClearIAS Fee Structure
• IAS Coaching
• UPSC Coaching
• UPSC Online Coaching
• ClearIAS Blog
• Important Updates
• Announcements
• Book Review
• ClearIAS App
• Work with us
• Advertise with us
• Privacy Policy
• Terms and Conditions
• Talk to Your Mentor

Featured on

and many more...

ClearIAS Programs: Admissions Open

Thank You 🙌

UPSC Prelims 2024: Revised Answer Key!

Download Self-Study Plan

Analyse Your Performance and Track Your Progress

Download Study Plan

IAS/IPS/IFS Online Coaching: Target CSE 2025

Cover the entire syllabus of UPSC CSE Prelims and Mains systematically.

Talk to our experts

1800-120-456-456

• Population Essay

Introduction to Population

Population is a very interesting topic to learn. There is no denying the fact that the population of any country is a very strong indicator of how exactly the country will function in the future and what its capabilities are as a nation. Leaders of the world pay a lot of attention to their country’s population for the same reason. The population and the skills that they possess are perhaps some of the most essential assets for any country. The following article is an essay on the topic of population and has been structured in a way that students of all ages can learn and understand the key points that they need to mention whenever they are writing an essay like this. 

Brief on Population

When we talk about a country’s population, we are talking about a lot of things. We are talking about its future workforce, the people that will build the country as a place to live and grow in, we definitely are talking about the future of the entire country. Taking India’s example, when we talk about the population of the country, we are talking about the future of the dream that our freedom fighters dreamt for us as a nation. Together, the entire population of a country has the potential to change the entire landscape of the kinds of work, and jobs that they do. 

The population of a country is responsible for the economical changes and growth in the country and hence is very important. It is also very important to take care of this population. The population needs the right kind of food, healthy environment to grow in and a great and comfortable lifestyle right from the start. Is that something that is possible for everyone? We all know the answer to this. In a country like India, where income disparities are massive, there is no chance for every single section of the population to have a good lifestyle right from the start that can help them grow as individuals. 

The same applies for other countries as well. Every country has an income disparity among the people that live in it and this is what makes the topic of population so interesting. We already know that it is the biggest asset that any country can have, but every country must plan and strategize well to take care of this population so that every single need is being fulfilled. This not only helps the country flourish as a whole, but also increases its chances of becoming successful in the future. 

Population Explosion

The current population of India is around 140 crores. According to certain reports, in the next few years, there will be a solid growth of population in India, and globally too.

The population is the total number of human beings living in a city or the country. It allows knowing how much resources are required by this population to fulfil and other plans needed. Year by year, there has been an explosion of population, which is making it difficult to provide resources to every person living in the country. Low literacy, early marriage and demand for family growth are some of the reasons behind the explosion of the population.  India is the primary ground of population explosion. It covers 17% of the population of the world and is the most populated country.

Reasons Behind the Growth of the Population

There are many reasons for the growth of the population. The low literacy rate is one of the reasons behind this explosion. For example, in India, the literacy rate is relatively low in many states. Many people living in the village fail to complete education and have less knowledge about birth control. They keep on expanding their family.

Moreover, they do not carry much knowledge about birth control techniques or medication. This lack of understanding further leads to a population explosion.

Another primary reason behind the growth of population is child marriage. The custom of child marriage is still followed in many parts of the country. Parents marry off their daughter at an early age, and at a young age, these girls get pregnant. This process continues for a long time.

One of the reasons behind this growth is there are not strict laws in India, unlike other countries. This also makes it hard for citizens to get an equal share of resources.

Impact of Population Explosion

Population explosion causes harm, not only to citizens of the country, but also nature. Increase in population means the need for more space to live, resulting in deforestation. Many cities have lost the green zone to fill it with urban living. Deforestation is leading to the extinction of species and other resources.  Animals are losing their homes, which makes them encroach on cities taking the lives of people.

Subsequently, an increase in population is also leading to population. More and more people are buying vehicles for their convenience, which is resulting in pollution. Massive traffic, congestion on roads and other negative scenes are witnessed in cities.

Population increase also calls for industrialization, which invites pollution in all areas. A country like India is now witnessing a massive problem of pollution and global warming.

Irregular distribution of food to all populations is another significant impact. Many families in rural areas do not get proper food to eat. Many poor kids go to sleep without eating food. This irregular distribution of food is not the scenario only in India, but other developing countries.

How to Control the Population?

One of the ways to control the population is to educate people about its ill effects on the country's resources. Government, along with NGOs, need to visit every rural area of the country to inform people about population control.

Providing birth control kits, education to kids and monetary benefits to families successful in restricting birth can do the needful.

We, humans, often forget how we are going to suffer if the population keeps exploding. If the number keeps rising, then it will be difficult to survive. Citizens need to understand the negative impact of the population explosion. Taking the right measures and keeping the resources in mind will help to control the population.

FAQs on Population Essay

1. How can the population affect climate change?

A growing population can have a significant impact on climate change. The buildup of human-generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is one of the effects of increasing human population. According to one study, there is a deep relationship between population growth and global warming. One child can produce 20 times more greenhouse. Similarly, a child born in the US will add up to 9441 carbon dioxide. This is certainly the most chilling effect of increasing population.

Global warming is the most common fear for today and the coming generation. To stop its growth, controlling the population is essential.

2. How population growth affects the environment?

There is a direct impact of population on the environment. More the population, the more resources are needed. There is a requirement that more space means more deforestation. Population growth also leads to an increase in greenhouse gases, which can affect this planet earth.

Rising sea levels in the coastal region are seen, which eventually leads to flooding. Like these, there are many impacts on the environment due to population growth. In many cities in developing countries, there is a shortage of space. People are not able to find space to live. Moreover, they find it hard to get clean water and are exposed to air pollution and other environmental issues.

3. Will the population increase post-lockdown?

According to the UN report, India will witness a baby boom post-lockdown. The report said, "The pandemic could strain health care capacities for mothers and newborns.” There is an estimate of 116 million babies to be born post-lockdown. The case is not just about India, but China (13.5 million births), Nigeria (6.4 million) and Indonesia (4 million). Post-lockdown, it could be a testing time for developing countries on how the population will affect resources.

4. What are some things that shall be considered while writing an essay on the topic of “Population”?

Whenever you are writing an essay on this topic, make sure that you are highlighting points like how population grows, the impact of this growth, ways to control population and the reasons why population of a country is so important. Once this is done and when you have an idea of what you need to be writing about, start building upon these points. By simply doing this, you will be able to write a brilliant essay. 

Essay on Population Growth 500+ Words

India, a land of vibrant cultures and diverse landscapes, is also home to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing populations. The topic of population growth in India is both a challenge and an opportunity. In this essay, I will argue that India’s population growth presents complex issues but also holds the potential for economic and social development.

The Magnitude of India’s Population Growth

India’s population has been steadily increasing for decades. It is currently the second-most populous country in the world, with over 1.3 billion people. The sheer magnitude of this growth raises questions about the country’s ability to provide essential services such as education, healthcare, and employment.

The Causes of Population Growth

Several factors contribute to India’s population growth. High birth rates, limited access to contraception in some areas, and cultural norms that favor larger families all play a role. Additionally, increased life expectancy has contributed to a growing elderly population.

The Challenges of Population Growth

One of the main challenges posed by rapid population growth is the strain on resources and infrastructure. India’s cities are experiencing overcrowding, traffic congestion, and a shortage of affordable housing. Healthcare facilities and schools are often stretched to their limits, impacting the quality of services.

Economic Opportunities

While population growth presents challenges, it also offers economic opportunities. A large and young workforce can be a valuable asset for a country’s development. India’s demographic dividend, with a significant proportion of young people, has the potential to drive economic growth, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

The Importance of Education

To harness the economic potential of its population, India must invest in education. Access to quality education for all is crucial for developing the skills and knowledge needed for a competitive job market. Improvements in the education system can empower individuals to contribute to the nation’s growth.

Healthcare and Family Planning

Addressing population growth also involves improving healthcare and family planning services. Access to affordable healthcare, reproductive health services, and contraceptives can help individuals make informed decisions about family size. Public awareness campaigns can promote smaller, healthier families.

Sustainable Development

India’s population growth is intrinsically linked to sustainable development. Balancing economic growth with environmental conservation is vital. Sustainable practices in agriculture, water management, and urban planning can mitigate the negative impact of a large population on resources and the environment.

Expert Opinions

Experts emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach to address India’s population growth. Investments in healthcare, education, and family planning are essential. Economist Amartya Sen has highlighted the importance of women’s empowerment and gender equality in reducing birth rates.

Conclusion of Essay on Population Growth

In conclusion, India’s population growth is a multifaceted issue that presents both challenges and opportunities. Managing this growth requires a concerted effort to improve healthcare, education, and family planning services. By harnessing its demographic dividend, India can promote economic growth and sustainable development while ensuring a better quality of life for its citizens. Balancing these aspects is the key to addressing the complex issue of population growth in India.

Also Check: Simple Guide on How To Write An Essay

Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions (1986)

Chapter: conclusion.

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Conclusion We have examined a diverse set of mechanisms through which population growth affects economic development. This chapter opens with a review and synthesis of our conclusions on the expected effects of a decline in the population grown rate that works through these mechanisms. It then proceeds to a discussion of how environmental and institutional contexts mediate the actions of these mechanisms a major theme of this report. The final section discusses policy implications. EFFECTS OF SLOWER POPULATION GROWTH ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Following the framework set up in the Introduction, we consider how conditions are likely to differ if a country, through a government program, were to achieve and maintain lower fertilibr than it would otherwise have experienced (with constant mortality). As noted above, such a decline would produce at every subsequent point slower population growth, smaller population size, lower population density, and an older age structure. Working through these direct demographic effects, a reduced level of fertility is also likely to produce several other changes. Slower Population Growth and Exhaustible Resources Globally slower population growth may delay the time at which a particular stage of depletion of an exhaustible resource is reached. This effect does not necessarily increase the number of people who will have access to 85

86 POPUW7ON GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT that resource; rather, it moves the consumption stream further from the present. But it is important to recognize that no single exhaustible resource is essential or irreplaceable; it is valued for its economic contribution, not for its own sake. As easily accessible reserves of natural resources are exhausted, the real cost of extraction, and hence the resource pace, rises. This price rise should stimulate the search for alternative materials. Historically, these adaptive strategies have been extremely successful. To the extent that slower population growth results in a slower rate of resource depletion, these adaptive strategies will also occur more slowly. Hence, it seems unlikely that slower population growth will allow a larger number of people, over future generations, to enjoy a given standard of living thanks to lower natural resource prices. Slower Population Growth and Renewable Resources Slower population growth, in some cases nationally and in others globally, is likely to lead to a reduced rate of degradation of renewable common- property resources such as air, water, and species of plants and animals. If significant amounts of land and forest resources are held in common in a country, they will also tend to be degraded less rapidly. These effects are likely to be more evident in the short run-in say, a decade or two. In the long run, population growth itself might create greater incentives to develop the social and political institutions necessary for conservation. Such incentives are irrelevant, of course, if the resource has become depleted beyond the point of restoration. Moreover, changes are costly and the need to bear such costs is itself a consequence of population growth. Slower Population Growth, Health, and Education Lower fertility is likely to raise average per child levels of household expenditure on health and education and thereby improve levels of child health and education. By themselves, such changes should result in a more productive labor force. Superimposed on these within-family effects is the possibility that lower fertility will alter the distribution of children among families by income class. If fertility declines are largest among high- income families, average levels of schooling and health among children could actually decrease despite an absolute improvement in measures of well-being among poor families. But if family planning programs result in larger fertilibr reductions among poorer families, the within-family gains will be accentuated at the societal level. Slower population growth is likely to raise public expenditures on schooling per school-aged child. Evidence from the educational literature suggests that

CONCLUSION 87 such a result may lead to some improvement in educational quality as measured, for example, by test scores. We do not find convincing evidence that lower fertility will result in faster growth in enrollment ratios (apart from within-family effects). Slower Population Growth and Income Unless a fertility decline is concentrated among high-income families, it is likely to lead to a reduction in income disparities among social classes. This is primarily a long-term effect (although a variety of short-tenn effects are also possible) and wows primarily by raising payments to labor relative to payments to capital and raising payments to unskilled labor relative to skilled labor. We have found little evidence that the aggregate savings rate depends on growth rates or the age structure of a population. Assuming that the savings rate remains unchanged, a fertility decline will lead to an increase in the ratio of capital to labor and, along with it, labor productivity, wages, and per capita income. The increase in the capitalllabor ratio will reduce rates of ran to capital and reduce payments to owners of capital. In the short run, more land per agricultural worker is likely to raise labor productivity in agriculture. Long-term effects may differ because of changes in the organization and techniques of production that are induced by the relative change in factor availability. These effects may reduce the short- term gains of slower growth. Slower Population Growth and Cities Win slower population growth, cities grow more slowly, both in the short and long run. Natural increase (~e excess of birds over deaths) accounts for about 60 percent of city growth today in developing countnes, and it is reasonable to expect that a decline in fertilizer levels will entail a decline in rates of natural increase in cities. Such changes reduce the demand for urban infras~uctural investments while eventually reducing the revenue base that supports such investments. The evidence on Chewer reduced national fertility levels reduce the rate of rural-url~an migration, and hence reduce He rate of grown of He proportion of He population that is urban, is unclear. A reduced rate of urban labor force grown in developing countries (most of which is a product of natural increase among the urban population) is not likely to be systematically accompanied by corresponding reductions in joblessness. However, it may increase He proportion of He urban labor force working in high-wage jobs in the modern sector of the economy and reduce He proportion working in the low-wage, infonnal sector.

88 POP CLARION GROWN AND ECONOMIC DEVEL()PMENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXTS It is clear that the economic advantages of fertility reduction will vary from place to place. Environmental and climatic conditions clearly shape the local impact of population growth. In countries such as Bangladesh, where ratios of agricultural labor to arable land are already very high, there is a presumptive case that labor productivity in agriculture will decline more rapidly with added labor than if ratios were low. Nonagricultural production possibilities, and the opportunities for trade, also affect the importance of these natural features. Important as these natural features may be in conditioning the economic response to population growth, Hey appear to be far less important than conditions created by people. Many of the initial effects of population growth are negative, but they can be ameliorated or even reversed in the long run if institutional adjustment mechanisms are in place. Among the most important of such mechanisms are property rights in land and properly functioning markets for labor, capital, and goods. Such markets permit the initial effects of population growth to be registered in the fonn of price changes, which can trigger a variety of adjustments, including the introduction of other factors of production that have become more valuable as a result of the increase in population; a search for substitutes for increasingly scarce factors of production; intensified research to find production processes better suited to the new conditions; reallocation of resources toward sectors (e.g., food production) in which demand may be most responsive to population change; and so on. Of course, these adjustments may entail real costs, even when these are minimized by efficient institutions. When markets function very poorly, or do not exist, adjustments to population change are likely to be slower or to not occur at all. These are not merely theoretical notions. Some part of the current distress in Ethiopia, of the loss of 30 million lives during China's '~great leap forward" (Ashton et al., 1984), and of the problems of food production in tropical Africa during the 1970s was due to very badly functioning markets combined with rapid population grown. Even efficient markets do not guarantee desirable outcomes. The famines of 1942-1943 in Bengal and of 1973-1974 in Bangladesh seem to have been principally a result of deterioration in the income distribution-in particular, the loss of purchasing power by unskilled wage laborers-combined with speculative hoarding in food markets (See, 1981~. This kind of outcome underscores the role of the distribution of wealth and of human capital as a fundamental determinant of poverty. The potential value of government intervention for market regulation and for purposes of income distribution is widely acknowledged. Govemment policies in a variety of arenas clearly play important roles in mediating Me

CONCLUSION 89 impact of population growth. Effects of population growth on educational enrollment and quality, on rates of exploitation of common property resources, on the development of social and economic infrastructure, on urbanization, and on research activities are all heavily dependent on existing government policies and their adaptiveness to changed conditions. In short, the effects of rapid population growth are likely to be conditioned by the quality of markets, the nature of government policies, and features of the natural environment. Since the effects are so dependent on these conditions, a reliable assessment of many of the net effects of population growth can best be carried out at the national level, although some issues concerning the environment and resources can only be analyzed globally. It is of interest to briefly examine and contrast Me interplay between population grown and institutions in two important areas, China and tropical Africa. China, with its extremely low arable landlpopulation ratio, is often seen as greatly in need of population control policies in order to boost per capita agricultural income; this view is reflected in the government's severe disincentives for large families. Although it is possible Mat the resultant decline in the population growth rate has somewhat increased per capita agricultural income, these gains are probably small compared with those from agricultural reforms instituted in 1979. Over the period 1979-1984, the real per capita income of Me rural population increased 15 percent annually, and total agricultural output increased 51 percent (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1985; Li, 1985~. In contrast, tropical Africa has a comparatively high land/population ratio, but appears to be particularly vulnerable to problems induced by population grown. Political independence and He forces of modernization came to tropical Africa later than to other areas. Although some countries in other regions also share these traits, markets are generally least well developed in tropical Africa, political factionalism is greatest, and human resource potential is least developed. In parts of Africa, sparseness of population itself may be responsible for some of these difficulties, but this explanation is implausible for such countries as Ethiopia or Kenya Obviously, slowing population growth is not a substitute for solving other problems, but it can reduce some of the more extreme manifestations of these problems while they are being solved. SUMMARY Population growth can, and often does, trigger market reactions. Many of these reactions move a country in a '`modem" direction, that is, toward better~efined properq rights, larger integrated marked, more agocultum1 research, and so on. However, He market-induced adjustments to higher

go POP ULA77ON GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT growth do not appear to be large enough to offset the negative effects on per capita income of higher ratios of labor to other factors of production. Nor is population growth necessary to achieve these forms of modernization: the fact that rates of return to agricultural research are already extremely high-in bow developing and developed countnes-implies Mat Here is little need for additional stimulus from population growth; the evolution of property rights is stimulated by many factors~population grown being only one among Rem (Binswanger and Pingali, 1984~; and the scope of many markets can be enlarged by removing made barriers. That these over devices exist does not imply a minimal role for population grown, but it does caution against advocacy of growth as the only way to achieve them. On balance, we reach the qualitative conclusion Cat slower population growth would be beneficial to economic development for most developing counties. A rigorous quantitative assessment of these benefits is difficult and context dependent. Since we have stressed the role of slower population growth in raising per capita human and physical capital, it is instructive to use as a benchmark the effects of changes in the ratio of physical capital per person. A simple mode} suggests that the effect is comparatively modest. Using a typical labor coefficient of 0.5 in estimated production functions, a 1 percent reduction in the me of labor force growth would boost the grown of per capita income by 0.5 percent per year. ~us, after 30 years, a 1 percent reduction in the annual rate of population grown (produced, say, by a decline in Be crude bird rate from 37 to 27 per 1,0003 will have raised production and income per capita to a level 16 percent above what it would otherwise have been. This would be a substantial gain, but by no means enough to vault a typical developing country into Be ranks of the developed. This simple calculation, however, does not fully reflect the complexity of Be linkages between population growth and economic development. For instance, the production function would be expected to change in ways that reduce the advantages of slower population grown. We have reviewed considerable evidence, particularly in the agricultural sector, of how technology adapts to changes in factor proportions. In most places it is reasonable to expect slower growth in the labor force to reduce the intensity of adaptive response in the form of land improvement, instigation, and agricultural research. On the other hand, the calculation does not reflect increases in production due to the healthier and better educated work force Mat would result from lower fertility. Much more sophisticated models of production and fertility have been constructed with a variety of assumptions about the nature and intensity of relationships between economic and demograph* variables (see Ahlburg, 1985, for a thorough review). None of these models embodies the more

CONCLUSION 91 recent evidence on the nature and magnitude of effects that is included here, and we are not in a position to endorse any of the models. Careful scientific research is needed both to beuer quantify and to further elucidate most of the relationships discussed in this book. Research is especially needed on urbanization and the consequences of urban growth; savings and the formation of physical capital; the effect of population grown on health, education, and the development of human capital; and the nature and extent of extemalities of childbearing. Such research would be appropriately supported by mission-oriented development organizations as well as by basic research agencies. Whether the economic problems posed by population grown are large or small, and whether they are best approached by slowing the population grown rate, depends ultimately on the costs of alternative policy responses. We now turn to outline those responses. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: THE ROLE OF FAMILY PLANNING We have stressed that population growth can exacerbate the ill effects of a variety of inefficient policies, such as urban bias in the provision of infrastructure, direct and indirect food subsidies Hat distort agricultural markets, credit market distortions, and inadequate management of common property. A fundamental solution to these problems lies in better policies outside the population arena. However, some policies may be extremely resistant to correction, even over the medium to long term. Moreover, we have found some beneficial effects of slower population grown even in the presence of well-functioning markets and other institutions. Thus, there appears to be a legitimate role for population policy, providing its benefits exceed its costs. Although educational and health policies may have indirect effects on fertility, family planning programs have been the most conventional and direct instrument of government population policy. By family planning programs, we mean He provision of contraceptive services, together with information about contraception and child spacing. The total amount spent on family planning programs in 1982 was less than $2 billion, of which international assistance represents about $330 million (World Bank, 1984:148~. By companson, total official development assistance by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries was about $27.5 billion in 1983 Should Bank, 1984:252~. In most developing countries, family planning program expenditures represent less than 1 percent of the government budget. Government support for family planning programs can have an economic and social rationale quite apart from He effect of programs on rates of population growth. ~ many societies, individual control of reproduction

92 POPUlA77ON GROWIW AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT is considered a basic human right, similar in nature to good health or literacy. Lack of information about reproduction services and other services may constrain parents from achieving the* desired number and spacing of children. In such a situation, the supply of information and services will increase family welfare. Govemments can often supply information and services about reproduction more efficiently and cheaply than Me private sector, in part because large and risky investments are required and because some of Me benefits to consumers cannot be captured by the suppliers. In particular, valuable information can flow from person to person without any financial reward to the initial supplier: information about the consequences of childbearing is one example; the rhythm method is another. In this case, the private sector will underinvest in the provision of such services. The rationale for government support for family planning programs is similar to that for support of a variety of public health programs, as well as for agricultural research and extension services. F~ermore, when health services are provided by government, an additional rationale for government family planning programs is that the services can be efficiently supplied by existing health pet sonnet (World Bank, 1984~. Finally, family planning programs are likely to be of more value to lower income groups than to higher income groups, who may have beKer access to private services, so government support for these programs can help to advance equity goals If people use the services and information supplied by government family planning programs and if fertility falls as a result, an obvious case can be made that the program has increased the private welfare of users by reducing the cost of fertility control and by reducing the gap between desired and achieved fertility. This gain in private well-being is added to whatever other gains accrue on the national agenda from fertility reduction. The large fertility declines that occ~d in such countries as Mexico, Indonesia, and Thailand during the 1970s~eclines that were associated over time with intensified national family planning programs-suggest that private welfare gains from such programs are large. The large amount of unwanted childbearing in developing countries Mat was revealed by the World Fertility Survey (Boulder, 1985) suggests that such programs have considerable remaining potential to increase private welfare and reduce population growth rates. When national economic and social goals can be furthered by a reduction in fertilibr, the fact that family planning programs can achieve such reductions while increasing the well-being of users of these services accounts for milch of their Inactiveness as a policy instrument for governments in developing countries. A similar att~veness applies to removal of legal prohibitions against access to means of ferdlity control, prohibitions that pose serious obstacles to couples, reproductive behavior in many counties (Berelson and Lieberson, l979~. In sum, there is little debate about the desirability of

CONCLUSION 93 programs Hat allow couples access to easy, affordable, and effective means of family planning, even among Hose who see population growth as a neuter or even a positive influence on development (Wattenberg and Zinsmeister, 1985). When a couple's childbearing decision imposes external costs on other families-in overexploitation of common resources, congestion of public services, or contribution to a socially undesirable distribution of income- a case may be made for policies that go "beyond family planning." Such policies include persuasive campaigns to change family size norms and combinations of incentives and taxes related to family size. It is more difficult to make the case for He imposition of drastic financial or legal restrictions on childbearing. As noted above, such restrictions are likely to entail large welfare losses at the individual level; these losses would be hard to assess quantitatively, as are the possible social benefits of such restrictions. Because economic development is a multifaceted process, no single policy or single-sector strategy can be successful by itself. Thus, family planning programs by themselves cannot make a poor county rich or even move it many notches higher on the scale of development. However, family planning programs that enable couples to have the number of children they desire increase the private welfare of the people who use Heir services while reducing He burden on society of whatever economic externalities exist. And family planning programs are likely to increase He well-being of the users' children and to extend rawer Han to restrict personal choices. Thus, family planning programs can play a role in improving the lives of people in developing counties.

This book addresses nine relevant questions: Will population growth reduce the growth rate of per capita income because it reduces the per capita availability of exhaustible resources? How about for renewable resources? Will population growth aggravate degradation of the natural environment? Does more rapid growth reduce worker output and consumption? Do rapid growth and greater density lead to productivity gains through scale economies and thereby raise per capita income? Will rapid population growth reduce per capita levels of education and health? Will it increase inequality of income distribution? Is it an important source of labor problems and city population absorption? And, finally, do the economic effects of population growth justify government programs to reduce fertility that go beyond the provision of family planning services?

READ FREE ONLINE

Welcome to OpenBook!

You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

Show this book's table of contents , where you can jump to any chapter by name.

...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter .

Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

View our suggested citation for this chapter.

Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

Get Email Updates

Do you enjoy reading reports from the Academies online for free ? Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released.

• Tools and Resources
• Customer Services
• Behavioral Science and Health Education
• Biostatistics and Data
• Disaster Preparation and Response
• Environmental Health
• Epidemiology
• Global Health
• Health Services Administration/Management
• Infectious Diseases
• Non-communicable Diseases
• Public Health Policy and Governance
• Public Health Profession
• Sexual and Reproductive Health
• Special Populations
• Theory and Methods
• Share This Facebook LinkedIn Twitter

Article contents

Demographic transition in india: insights into population growth, composition, and its major drivers.

• Usha Ram Usha Ram International Institute for Population Sciences, Department of Public Health and Mortality Studies
•  and  Faujdar Ram Faujdar Ram Population Council of India and International Institute for Population Sciences
• https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190632366.013.223
• Published online: 26 April 2021

Globally, countries have followed demographic transition theory and transitioned from high levels of fertility and mortality to lower levels. These changes have resulted in the improved health and well-being of people in the form of extended longevity and considerable improvements in survival at all ages, specifically among children and through lower fertility, which empowers women. India, the second most populous country after China, covers 2.4% of the global surface area and holds 18% of the world’s population. The United Nations 2019 medium variant population estimates revealed that India would surpass China in the year 2030 and would maintain the first rank after 2030. The population of India would peak at 1.65 billion in 2061 and would begin to decline thereafter and reach 1.44 billion in the year 2100. Thus, India’s experience will pose significant challenges for the global community, which has expressed its concern about India’s rising population size and persistent higher fertility and mortality levels. India is a country of wide socioeconomic and demographic diversity across its states. The four large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan accounted for 37% of the country’s total population in 2011 and continue to exhibit above replacement fertility (that is, the total fertility rate, TFR, of greater than 2.1 children per woman) and higher mortality levels and thus have great potential for future population growth. For example, nationally, the life expectancy at birth in India is below 70 years (lagging by more than 3 years when compared to the world average), but the states of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan have an average life expectancy of around 65–66 years.

The spatial distribution of India’s population would have a more significant influence on its future political and economic scenario. The population growth rate in Kerala may turn negative around 2036, in Andhra Pradesh (including the newly created state of Telangana) around 2041, and in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu around 2046. Conversely, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan would have 764 million people in 2061 (45% of the national total) by the time India’s population reaches around 1.65 billion. Nationally, the total fertility rate declined from about 6.5 in early 1960 to 2.3 children per woman in 2016, a result of the massive efforts to improve comprehensive maternal and child health programs and nationwide implementation of the national health mission with a greater focus on social determinants of health. However, childhood mortality rates continue to be unacceptably high in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh (for every 1,000 live births, 43 to 55 children die in these states before celebrating their 5th birthday). Intertwined programmatic interventions that focus on female education and child survival are essential to yield desired fertility and mortality in several states that have experienced higher levels. These changes would be crucial for India to stabilize its population before reaching 1.65 billion. India’s demographic journey through the path of the classical demographic transition suggests that India is very close to achieving replacement fertility.

• demographic transition
• contraception
• family planning
• life expectancy
• child mortality

India is one of the oldest civilizations and has a vibrant cultural heritage coupled with remarkable diversity. The Mughals ruled the country from 1526 to 1761 , and were mainly located north of Vindhyanchal. India was a British colony from 1612 until 1947 , when the country attained its independence and became a sovereign nation. The British occupied all of present-day India after defeating Tipu Sultan in Mysuru and Marathas in Maharashtra. The British East India Company governed India and controlled trade throughout the region, except for Goa, which the Portuguese controlled in 1510–1961 , and Pondicherry, which the French controlled in 1673–1693 and again in 1699–1962 .

India has conducted a regular decadal census since 1881 that measures population size and composition as well as decadal growth at the national and subnational levels (including states, districts, and tehsils). At the dawn of Indian independence, there were about 345 million Indians. The year 1951 witnessed the first census of an independent India, recording a total population of 361 million and a moderate annual exponential growth rate of 1.25% during 1941–1951 . From a population growth perspective, the year 1951 became a turning point because it indicated a population explosion since it multiplied threefold by 2001 .

According to a United Nations (UN, 2019 ) report, India constituted 17.7% of the total world population, and was second only to China, whose share was 18.5%. The same estimates revealed that India would not only surpass China in the year 2030 with its share of 17.6% (and China’s would decrease to 17.1%) but it would also maintain the first rank after 2030 . The report further indicated that Africa’s share would rise to 25.6% in 2050 and 39.4% in 2100 . In contrast, the percentage share of Asia would decline from 59.5% in 2020 to 43.4% in 2100 . By 2100 , India would attain the first rank as far as the share of a single country is concerned. Nonetheless, its relative share would decline to 16.8% in 2050 and 13.3% in 2100 . It is thus essential to examine the dynamics of population growth, its potential, and future drivers of population growth of India.

The rapid population growth caused by a comparatively quick decline in mortality and persisting higher fertility levels has been the cause of concern in most developing counties, including India. The 1961 census of India revealed an annual exponential national growth rate close to 2% during 1951–1961 . The concerns were raised about the population growth and its rising size, both nationally and globally. The demographics of India—population size, growth rate, fertility, mortality, and so on—continue to occupy significant space discussions concerning its impact on various global health and developmental indicators. Alarmed at burgeoning numbers, and a view to accelerating a rapid decline in fertility levels, many developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia, launched official family planning programs in the mid-1960s. In the 1970s and 1980s, most witnessed a strong commitment by leaders to reduce fertility levels. As a result, they experienced one of the fastest transitions in levels of fertility (Pathak & Ram, 1981 ; Srinivasan & Pathak, 1981 ). Although India launched an official family planning program in the early 1950s, the real inputs for the program were recorded from the 1960s, when the program became method-mixed and target oriented. Post-independence, upon the advice of several researchers (Chitre, 1964 ; Gopalaswamy, 1962 ; Laxmi, 1964 ), the Indian government implemented its official family planning program in 1952 that promoted sterilization on a large scale. This was considered as the most cost-effective and impactful approach by the government given resource constraints. However, Agarwala ( 1964 ) disagreed with this and criticized the program. Recently, Srinivasan ( 2006 ) also opined that the continuous focus on sterilization (female) has dominated the Indian national family planning program. In the mid-1960s, government expanded the basket of methods for the clients and included IUD into the program. This, nonetheless failed due to several side effects on the users (Pujari et al., 1967 ).

The well-known linguistic, economic, and social-cultural diversity of India and its century-old demographic diversity across geographies have expanded, especially since independence. Several states in India, including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu in the southern region, have moved much faster in achieving the national goal of the replacement fertility. The onset of fertility transition in these southern states occurred when the social and development indicators such as female literacy rates, per capita income, mortality and so on were rather poorer. At the same time, Hindi-speaking states in the northern region, including Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, continue to experience high levels of fertility as well as mortality. Nationally, fertility levels in India have fallen, and by 2000 Indian women were having an average of about 3.3 children. A significant portion of this decline came from the states in the southern region, where female literacy rates were higher, and women enjoyed greater autonomy than the women in the rest of India. While the southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu attained replacement-level fertility long ago, the giant northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan continue to reproduce at a prodigious rate (Krishnamoorthy, 1997 ; Rajan, 1994 ; Seal & Talwar, 1994 ). It is important to note that the prevailing social and economic conditions in the southern states at the time of onset of fertility transitions varied considerably. The doctrine of demographic-transition theory advocates indicates that a rise in per capita income, industrialization, and urbanization subsequently leads to reduced levels of fertility and mortality in populations. However, this did not happen in Kerala. Fertility and mortality levels in Kerala were not accompanied by the concurrent improvements in the levels of per capita income, industrialization, and urbanization (Zachariah, 1983 ).

Until the end of the 20th century , family welfare programs and policies in India focused on lowering fertility rates because the authorities visualized that the persisting higher fertility rates would further add to the built-in growth momentum of its population age composition. The UN’s ( 1987 ) population projections revealed that the population momentum alone would add substantially to growing numbers in India. Visaria and Visaria ( 1994 ) warned that the ultimate population size of India would be enormous if the country failed to put a brake on the fertility rate and achieved the replacement levels before 2016 . It would thus be useful to elaborate on the demographic transition in India and identify gaps to provide future directions for the program to enable positive changes in matters of population growth, thereby improving the lives and well-being of its people. The national scenario masks the diversity across states. Thus, achieving the goals may be less feasible without any understanding of the issues at the subnational level. This article documents the demographic transition of India at the national and subnational levels and examines various drivers of the transition.

The data for the present research come from several sources. The world population for the past and future years comes from the UN’s ( 2019 ) World Population Prospects . The time-series data for India on population size, growth rates, and age distribution at the national and state levels come from Indian government censuses conducted between 1881 and 2011 . The Government of India’s National Commission on Population (NCP, 2019 ) projections provides the numbers for the period 2021–2036 . The indicators of fertility (total fertility rates) and mortality (infant mortality rate, under-5 mortality rate, and life expectancy at birth come) are from various rounds of the Indian government’s Sample Registration System (SRS). The data for multiple years is available in the annual statistical reports published by the Registrar General of India ( 2020 ). The information on contraceptive use and marriage comes from the National Family Health Surveys (International Institute for Population Sciences [IIPS], 1993 ; IIPS & ICF, 2017 ; IIPS & ORC-Macro, 2000 , 2007 ). Figures and tables presented throughout the article give detailed data from these sources.

Demographic Transition Theory: A Brief Description

The demographers Warren Thompson ( 1929 ) and Adolphe Landry circa 1934 (Landry, 1987 ), described the classical demography/population transition. However, Frank W. Notestein ( 1945 ), an American demographer proposed a precise framework and presented a systematic formulation of the theory in its real sense According to the demographic transition theory, most countries will go through a process of population change from the stage of high birth and death rates (pretransition stage 1) to the last stage of lowest birth and death rates (stage 4). In other words, countries move from the lowest pretransition stage 1 (sometimes negative growth rate) to the highest growth rate (stages 2 and 3) before reaching stage 4, when the growth rate is extremely low (occasionally negative) and the country has attained below-replacement fertility. According to the theory, the demographic transition of a nation can be described with the help of the growth rates if the country has regular censuses over a reasonably long period. In his critical exploration of the demographic transition, Kirk ( 1996 ) stated that

the timing of the decline in countries with Non-European tradition conformed to the forecast by the original authors of the theory, without exception, fall in mortality preceded the decline in the levels of fertility . . . In general, the transition period was shorter in Non-European countries than the countries inhabited by Europeans. (p. 383)

Further, the non-European countries are transitioning with a lower level of socioeconomic development (Cleland & Wilson, 1987 ).

Several researchers (Kaa, 1987 , 2002 ; Lesthaeghe, 2011 , 2014 ; Lesthaeghe & Surkyn, 2004 ) have referred to a second demographic transition (SDT). The SDT is a period of continued fertility decline much below-replacement fertility. The most critical factors related to this continued decline are increase in nonmarriage, individual autonomy, self-actualization, rising symmetry in sex roles, advancing female education, and economic independence of women (for details, see Lesthaeghe, 2014 ). Nevertheless, the postulate of SDT based on the experiences of European countries may not hold in developing countries (Cleland, 2001 ; Dyson, 2010 ). The SDT, nevertheless, is much more challenging than the original demographic transition because the countries face declining population sizes, shrinking working population, and graying population. To an extent, replacement migration could help these nations overcome these emerging challenges. Coleman ( 2006 ), using the emergence of migrants as the dominant community in some geographies compared to the natives, advocated the concept of the third demographic transition (TDT), which emphasizes the drastic change in population composition. However, the idea of TDT could be a reflection of the adjustment for the shrinking labor force that arises out of SDT, and it does not fit into the purview of demographic transition theory per se.

This section discusses changes in population size, growth and its age-sex composition over time to understand India’s population transition. This is followed by a detailed exploration of the crucial factors that led to population transition. For this, we have considered four major drivers of population change that include fertility, mortality, family planning and changes in marriage pattern. Changes in fertility levels have been studied using total fertility rate. The changes in mortality have been studied using three indicators of infant mortality, under-5 mortality and expectation of life at birth. The changes in contraceptive use is examined with the help of contraceptive prevalence rate. Finally, changes in marriage pattern is examined with the help of percentage of women aged 20–24 years who were married before reaching age 18 years and women aged 30–34 years who remained single.

Population Size, Growth, and Age Structure

The UN ( 2019 ) estimated a total of 7,795 million people globally in 2020 . They suggested that this number would surpass 10 billion by the turn of the 21st century (Table 1 ). In 2020 , about 60% of the people live in Asia and a little over 17% live in Africa. By 2100 , Asia would be home to 43% of the global people and Africa to 39%. The share of European countries is estimated to reduce from 9.6% in 2020 to less than 6% in 2100 . While a similar pattern is predicted for the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and the North American regions, the share of Oceania remains unchanged. China’s population, was about 19% of the global population in 2020 , would reduce to less than 10% by 2100 . In India the share would decrease from less than 18% in 2020 to slightly over 13% in 2100 .

Table 1. Population Size and Share of the Population of World Regions, China, and India, 2020–2100

Source: UN ( 2019 ).

The indirect estimates of crude birth and death rates for India are for the period 1901–1961 . After 1971 , the SRS, which was established in the late 1960s, started to provide the crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) for India and bigger states annually. The most recent SRS estimates are available for the year 2017 . At the beginning of the 20th century , India had very high levels of crude birth and death rates (48 births/deaths per 1,000 persons; Figure 1 ), which persisted until 2021 . The death rates started to decline around 1930 and reached 16 deaths per 1,000 persons in 1971 . The CBR, too, began to fall at a much slower pace. While the CBR was 36 births per 1,000 persons in the early 1970s, the CDR was 16 deaths per 1,000 persons. This declining trend continues, and the gap between the two rates is narrowing over time. The CBR was 20 per 1,000 persons in 2017 as compared to the CDR of 6 per 1,000 persons.

Figure 1. Crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) for India, 1901–2017.

At the beginning of the 20th century , India had 238 million people. The results of the first census of the new millennium revealed that India had crossed the one billion mark by the end of the 20th century as the 2001 census enumerated a total of 1,029 million Indians (Table 2 ). The country annually added 16.1 million people in the 1980s and 18.2 million in the 1990s. While the world population increased threefold (from 2 to 6 billion) during the last century, it grew five times in India. The 15th census of India conducted in 2011 enumerated a total of 1,210 million Indians. The population of India grew with a decadal growth rate of about 17.5% during 2001–2011 , resulting in an annual exponential growth rate of 1.62% (a decline from 1.96% observed during 1991–2001 ). Despite a substantial reduction in the growth rate during 2001–2011 , India added nearly 181 million people. The UN’s 2019 projections indicated a similar addition during 2011–2021 , before the country experienced a drastic decline in the subsequent decades.

Figure 2. Estimated and observed exponential annual population growth rate (%) during 1901–2011 and 2021–2101, respectively, for India.

Indian annual population growth peaked at 2.22% during 1961–1971 (Table 1 and Figure 2 ) and stayed around 2% for the next four decades until 2001 . This period may be referred to as the second stage (population explosion stage) of demographic transition for India, during which the country added approximately 590 million people. Between 2001 and 2011 India experienced a substantial decline in its population growth rate (from 1.95% in 1991–2001 to 1.62% in 2001–2011 ). The UN’s 2019 assessment suggested that as far as the population size as concerned, India would surpass China in the next 7–8 years and would continue to increase until the year 2061 when its population size would reach 1,650 million. India may experience a decline in its total population after 2061 and count 1,444 million people in the year 2101 . Thus, India would add another 440 million people to its 2011 population size before achieving stabilization. In other words, India is likely to enter the fourth stage (near-zero growth rate) in the next 50 years or so. For India, the third stage of the demographic transition may fall between 2011 and 2051 . The momentum inbuilt in the age structure of the population would mostly lead to its growth.

Table 2. Population Size, Intercensal Change (Absolute and Percentage), and Exponential Annual Growth Rate, India, 1901–2001

Source : Registrar General of India ( n.d.-a ); Population estimated from UN ( 2019 ).

Examination of the current growth rate in specific states of India, especially for the larger Indian states (in terms of population size), helps to locate growth potentials. Table 3 gives population size for 2001 and 2011 , the two recent censuses of India, absolute change and state share in the total national change during 2001–2011 , and the exponential population growth rate observed during 2001–2011 for 20 large states of India. The four states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan deserve particular attention. With a population increase of 33.6 million, Uttar Pradesh contributed the most significant growth to the total national change of 182.2 million during 2001–2011 , followed by Bihar at 21.1 million and Maharashtra at 15.5 million. Kerala recorded the lowest annual exponential growth rate of 0.48%, followed by Andhra Pradesh (1.04%), Punjab (1.30%), and Odisha (1.31%). Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh together added 446 million (43%) of the total national addition and each state had an annual growth rate of 2% or more. These states are likely to make significant contributions to Indian population growth in the future because the fertility and mortality rates in these states are comparatively high and the decline in these rates has been much slower than that of other states. The most recent projections of the Government of India (NCP, 2019 ) indicated that by the year 2036 there would be a total of 596 million Indians, and half of them would come from these four states.

Table 3. Population Size, Intercensal Change (Absolute and Percentage), and Exponential Annual Growth Rate for Selected States of India, 2001–2011

a Sum of states may not match to India due to rounding of the numbers.

b Undivided including Telangana.

Table 4 gives a future population scenario in the 13 large states of India subdivided into three groups based on the attainment of the replacement level of fertility. These 13 states together cover nearly 80% of the national total. Group 1 consists of four states—Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh—that have yet to attain replacement fertility. Group 2 and Group 3 consist of the states that have recently reached replacement fertility and a long time ago, respectively. The four large states in Group 1 have enormous potential for growth, and during 2026–2036 their combined growth rate is projected to be close to 1% (0.83%). Bihar is an outlier even within this group, with a growth rate of 1.16% annually. Group 2 states would have a growth rate of around 0.37% and Group 3 of about 0.20%. These findings indicate that a major part of India’s population growth potential lies in the four states of Group 1.

Table 4. Population Size and Year of the Attainment of Replacement Fertility in 13 Large States of India Stratified by Level of Total Fertility Rate, 2011–2036

a 2011 population data from the census of India.

b Projected population for the period 2016–2036 is from NCP ( 2019 ).

c Undivided including Uttarakhand.

d Undivided including Jharkhand.

e Undivided including Chattisgarh.

Source : NCP ( 2019 ).

Population Age-Sex Composition

The population age-sex composition of a country narrates historical experiences, including wars, epidemics, famines, and so on. Population age distribution and the female to male ratio are indicative of fertility and mortality levels and the social status of the women in the populations. Along with the demographic transition in India described earlier, there has been an inevitable change in the age-sex structure—that is, the decline in mortality followed by fertility has resulted in changes to the population’s age structure. Several studies have debated and discussed the role of these changes in economic growth. Sex composition (population sex ratio overall and, more important, at birth) reflects the status of women in the society. Globally, the population sex ratio (males per 1,000 females) is favorable to the female gender. An overall sex ratio of 1,030–1,050 females per 1,000 males is standard under the natural conditions. The situation is slightly different in India.

Table 5 gives the sex ratio overall and for children younger than 5 years of age for India for a period of 120 years ( 1881–2011 ) along with the absolute change in them. For India, the overall sex ratio was close to normal until around 1931 . It started to rise gradually in favor of males after that. The 1991 census of India revealed a higher overall sex ratio nationally: 1,078 males per 1,000 females. However, the scenario is different for the child sex ratio. Female children marginally outnumbered male children until 1941 as the sex ratio was in favor of the female children (960–995 male children per 1,000 female children below age 5). However, the scenario reversed when the 1951 census results were declared as the child sex ratio turned in favor of male children (1,008 male children per 1,000 female children) and has deepened over the years with the widening female-male children gap. The child sex ratio in India increased from 1,022 in 1981 to 1,047 in 1991 and further to 1,071 in 2001 and 1,082 in 2011 male children per 1,000 female children. Nationally, during the periods 1981–1991 and 1991–2001 , the child sex ratio increased astonishingly by 25 and 24 units, respectively. The distorted child sex ratio in India as well as in neighboring countries in the region has been a matter of concern and point of debate and investigations among policy makers and researchers. Many have cited widespread gender-based discrimination (neglect) in the form of son preference, lower autonomy to the women, and so on as the leading cause of this distortion. These practices result in sex-selective abortions and gender-specific mortality differentials (Bongaarts, 2013 ; Bongaarts & Guilmoto, 2015 ; Guilmoto et al., 2018 ; Jha et al., 2011 ; Kashyap, 2019 ; Ram & Ram, 2018 ).

Table 5. Sex Ratio (Males per 1,000 Females) of the Total Population and Children Younger Than 5 Years of Age, India, 1881–2011

Notes: The sex ratio for the years 1881 and 1891 was calculated using data from Mukherji ( 1976 ). The sex ratio for children younger than 5 years of age was calculated using data from a C-series in the respective census of India.

Source : Registrar General of India ( n.d.-b ).

A few studies have estimated a decrease in girls due to the practice of sex-selective abortions in India and found that these practices are not universal across geographies. Instead, they vary considerably in subregions of India (Jha et al., 2011 ; Ram & Ram, 2018 ). Table 6 presents the sex ratio for selected states in India for the period 1991–2011 and the change in it. Regardless of the year, Kerala is the only state that has an overall sex ratio lower than 1,000 (i.e., females exceeding the male population). In addition, the male-female gap has widened over the past two decades by almost 43 units. Punjab and Haryana have the most skewed overall sex ratio, varying between 1,117 and 1,162 males per 1,000 females. The overall sex ratio has been in favor of males in the remaining states. However, the gaps in sex ratio seemingly have bridged over time. While the decline was sharp in the states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Assam, it has remained mostly similar in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Similar to the overall sex ratio, Haryana and Punjab had a highly skewed child sex ratio, varying between 1,128 and 1,144, respectively, in 1991 and 1,190 and 1,169 in 2011 . In 2011 , Gujarat (1,110), Rajasthan (1,120), and Maharashtra (1,117) also showed a child sex ratio skewed in favor of male children. Other states also showed a considerable deficit of female children. Haryana topped the list as the child sex ratio increased by 62 units in favor of males during 1991–2011 . The corresponding increase was by 59 units in Maharashtra, 50 units in Rajasthan, 44 units in Gujarat, 42 units in Madhya Pradesh, and 30–39 units in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh. Kerala was the only state where the child sex ratio improved in favor of female children by 16 units between the 1991 and 2011 censuses.

Table 6. Sex Ratio (Males per 1,000 Females) of the Total Population and Children Younger Than 5 Years of Age for India and Selected States, 1991–2011

Note: Sex ratio from respective censuses of India (Table C-6 of 1991 and C-14 of 2001 and 2011).

a Undivided including Telangana.

Almost half of the districts in the country in 2011 had a deficit of girl children. The practice of neglect of the female child resulting in sex-selective abortion and excess female mortality is universal (Guilmoto et al., 2018 ; Ram & Ram, 2018 ). A more recent analysis for India by Kashyap ( 2019 ) indicated the dominance of prenatal factors (sex-selective abortion) compared to excess female mortality (postnatal factor). Table 7 presents the sex ratio at birth (SRB) for India and selected states. The data suggest that the SRB is favorable to male children for India nationally and subnationally. Punjab and Haryana, followed by Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Bihar, had a highly disturbing SRB in 1999 . For every 100 female births, Punjab and Haryana recorded 125 to 126 male births each, the other states recorded 112 to 118 male births. The male-female imbalance at birth has continued over time, although with a sign toward bridging the gaps. At the national level, the SRB has mostly remained unchanged at 112 male children for every 100 female children. Nonetheless, the imbalance has widened in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Haryana, suggesting that the efforts to address this have failed to yield desirable results. The study by Jha et al. ( 2011 ) demonstrated that the practices are more prevalent among affluent and educated people.

Table 7. Sex Ratio at Birth (Male Births Per 1,000 Female Births) and Absolute Change in Sex Ratio at Birth in India and Selected States, 1999–2016

a Undivided including Telangana for the years 1999, 2004, 2009, and 2013.

b Undivided including Jharkhand for the year 1999.

c Undivided including Chhattisgarh for the year 1999.

d Undivided including Uttarakhand for the years 1999, 2004, and 2009.

Source: Sex ratio from the annual statistical report of the Sample Registration System of India.

Table 8 presents age distribution by sex and dependency ratios (child, old age, and overall) for the period 1981–2011 (census of India) and 2036 for India (NCP, 2019 ). Figures 3A and 3B present age-sex population pyramids. The results in Table 8 suggest a visible change in the age structure over the decades. Nationally, the share of children below age 15 in the total population declined to from about 40% in 1981 to 31% in 2011 . The NCP ( 2019 ) projections indicated that the share would decrease to 20% by 2036 . The percentage of people aged 60 years and older increased to 9% in 2011 and is estimated to reach 15% in 2036 (over 227 million). The changes in the dependency ratios for children and older people also confirm a transition in the age structure. While the child dependency ratio in India declined from 73% in 1981 and to 51% in 2011 , the dependency ratio for older people increased marginally from 12% to 14%. The official population projections suggest that in 2036 the child dependency ratio would further decline to 30% and the dependency ratio for older people would increase to 23% nationally. In 2001 , India had about 587 million people in the working ages, between 15 and 59 years. Those aged 15–34 years accounted for nearly 60% (349 million). The number of people in the working ages of 15–59 years and 15–34 years increased to 733 million and 425 million, respectively, in the year 2011 . Population projections suggest that in 2036 , while the number of people of working age would increase to almost 989 million, young labor would reach 464 million. Such changes would impact future economic development and would call on the government to initiate innovative strategies to take care of the older population. Besides, a sharp rise in the labor force demands generation of more employment.

Table 8. Share of the Male and Female Population Out of the Total Population by Age Groups and Dependency Ratios (for Children, Older People, and Overall), India, 1981–2011 and 2036

a Population is taken from the censuses of India 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011.

b Projected population for 2036 is from NCP ( 2019 ).

c Dependency ratio from author calculations. The child dependency ratio is defined as the number of children below 15 years of age per 100 persons in the working ages of 15–59 years. The old-age dependency ratio is defined as the number of persons aged 60 years or older per 100 persons in the working ages of 15–59 years. The overall dependency ratio is defined as the number of children below 15 years of age and persons aged 60 years or older per 100 persons in the working ages of 15–59 years.

Figure 3A. Age-sex population pyramids of India, 1991.

Figure 3B. Age-sex population pyramids of India, 2036.

Major Drivers of Population Growth

Three drivers impact the population growth rate and are responsible for demographic transition: fertility, mortality, and international migration. Generally speaking, international migration has a limited role, as its volume is small. Thus, it is mainly the changes in fertility and mortality levels in a population that lead to demographic transition. This section discusses fertility and mortality transition in India and specific programmatic interventions responsible for the change in the fertility and mortality levels. India lacks good quality civil registration data on births and deaths (Ram et al., 2020 ; Yadav & Ram, 2019 ). Until the early 1970s, the estimated fertility and mortality for India and its states came from indirect methods that used census data stratified by age and sex. In the early 1970s, the Registrar General of India launched an annual nationwide system of collecting data on fertility and mortality (known as the sample registration system; SRS), which provides invaluable data for India and its states, especially for the bigger states. For the most part, the present research used fertility and mortality data from the SRS.

Figure 4 presents the total fertility rate (TFR) for India spanning over nearly 150 years (Ram et al., 1995 ). The TFR gives the number of children a woman would have at the end of the reproductive period, assuming that she experiences the prevailing age patterns of fertility. The data suggests that the TFR in India virtually remained unchanged at around 6.3 children per woman from 1871–1881 until 1951–1961 (standard deviation = 0.27). There has been little fluctuation in the TFR, which is mainly attributed to the variations in the quality of age-sex data in different censuses (Mukherji, 1976 ). Coale’s ( 1986 ) proposition of survival strategy postulates that a TFR of less than six for the expectation of life at birth (e o o ) of 20–25 years could lead to a zero or negative population growth. Thus, under a high mortality regime, maintaining a TFR of 6 and above was an excellent strategy to ensure moderate positive population growth. The decline in the TFR during the period 1896–1901 might have been the result of the famines of 1896–1997 and 1899–1901 , which were among the worst ever experienced in history and affected substantial sections of the population (Dyson, 1991 ).

The fertility transition in India most likely began during the late 1960s. Since the inception of fertility transition, the TFR in India declined by 19% to about 1.1 fewer children per woman during the first decade ( 1966–1971 to 1976–1981 ). The 1960s witnessed a substantial change in the family planning program in India, which became target-oriented and included the introduction of intrauterine devices to the official program in 1965 . The initial inherent demand for family planning and a persistently higher level of fertility may have been the reason for a relatively faster fertility decline during the first decade following the onset of the demographic transition. In the next decade ( 1976–1981 to 1986–1991 ), although the decrease in fertility continued, its pace slowed down. The decline in TFR slowed down notably in the subsequent decade of 1976–1981 to 1986–1991 when the reduction was only about 15%. The coercive approach adopted during the emergency period ( 1975–1977 ) was mainly responsible for this reduction in several states, more specifically in the larger Hindi-speaking states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. This in turn accelerated the decline in TFR. Between 1986–1991 and 1996–2001 , the TFR declined by 19% (from about 4 children to 3.2 children per woman). During 1996–2001 , the TFR in India declined by about 14%. The mid-1990s saw a paradigm shift in the national family planning program as the country revamped the program from a target-oriented to target-free regime. This paradigm shift resulted in an initial decline/stagnation in the family planning performance in the country.

Figure 4. Total fertility rate, India, 1871–2018.

Nationally, the TFR almost halved in the 30 years between 1986 and 2016 from 4.2 to 2.3 children per woman (Table 9 ). Many states in India showed a similar trend. Rural India also experienced a decline in the TFR from 4.5 in 1986 to 2.5 in 2016 . However, urban India had already achieved replacement fertility in 2006 . Of the states included in this analysis, eight states have already attained replacement or below-replacement fertility. The lagging states are Bihar Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, where TFR continues to be close to 3 children per woman. As noted, these are the states that are or could be center for India population growth in the coming years. The urban areas in several states attained replacement or below-replacement fertility in 2016 : the urban areas had a TFR of as low as 1.3 children per woman in West Bengal, 1.4 in Odisha, 1.5 in Andhra Pradesh, and 1.6 in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Further, the rural areas of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal had a TFR that varied between 1.7 and 1.9 children per woman in 2016 .

Table 9. Total Fertility Rate for Combined, Rural, and Urban Areas and the Ratio of Rural to Urban Rate for India and Selected States, 1986–2016

a Undivided including Telangana for the years 1986, 1996, and 2006.

b Undivided including Jharkhand for the years 1986 and 1996.

c Undivided including Chhattisgarh for the years 1986 and 1996.

d Undivided including Uttarakhand for the years 1986, 1996, and 2006.

Source: Total fertility rate from the annual statistical report of the Sample Registration System of India.

Improved child survival and concurrent expansion of female education have led to fertility decline in developing countries like India (Davis, 1963 ; Dyson, 2010 ). We have already discussed geographic diversity in the TFR and transition. In Table 10 , we present the levels of TFR by education for India and selected states. In 1992–1993 , the TFR for India was 4.3 per woman for women who had completed fewer than 5 years of schooling (including nonliterate) compared to 3.3 for those who had 10 or more years of schooling; a difference of one child. By 2015–2016 , the TFR declined to 2.9 per woman and 1.8 for the respective groups. Over time there is no convergence in the level of fertility in lower and higher education groups as TFR declined by 45.5% among those who had 10 or more years of schooling compared to 32.6% among those who had fewer than 5 years of schooling. Nationally, around 22% of women aged 15–49 had completed 10 or more years of schooling in 1992–1993 . The share of these women increased to about 60% in 2015–2016 . Although TFR is higher for less educated people in India, their share in total women aged 15–49 has been reducing rapidly due to the expansion of education. The rise in education has a significant impact on delay in age at marriage.

A similar trend is observed at the state level as well. In 2015–2016 , with the exception of Bihar (TFR = 2.3), women who had 10 or more years of schooling had reached the replacement level of fertility. The lowest being in Punjab (TFR = 1.4) and the highest in Uttar Pradesh (TFR = 2.0). Women with 5–9 years of schooling in many states except Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh either reached replacement or below-replacement level fertility or are very close to achieving it. The four larger states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) have lower child survival and limited outreach of female education. In 2015–2016 , Kerala had 95% of women aged 15–49 with 10 or more years of schooling, which was 44% in Bihar (including Jharkhand), 46% in Rajasthan, 52% in Madhya Pradesh (including Chhattisgarh), and 53% in Uttar Pradesh (including Uttarakhand).

Table 10. Total Fertility Rate by the Educational Status of the Women, India and Selected States, 1992–2016

a Undivided including Telangana (1992–1993, 1998–1999, and 2005–2006).

b Undivided including Jharkhand (1992–1993 and 1998–1999).

c Undivided including Chhattisgarh (1992–1993 and 1998–1999).

d Undivided including Uttarakhand (1992–1003 and 1998–1999).

Source : International Institute for Population Sciences ( 1993 ); International Institute for Population Sciences & ICF ( 2017 ); International Institute for Population Sciences & ORC-Macro ( 2000 ); International Institute for Population Sciences & ORC-Macro ( 2007 ).

The mortality data has information on three key indicators: infant mortality rate (IMR), under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), and expectation of life at birth (LEB; e o o ). The data comes from the SRS for India and covers about 25 years ( 1990–2016 ). The year 1990 is chosen as a base since it benchmarks the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) base year, and the year 2016 benchmarks the base year of the recently declared Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The MDG goal for U5MR for India was to attain a U5MR of 42 deaths of children aged below 5 years per 1,000 live births by the year 2015 . The corresponding goal for the IMR was 37 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. Under the SDG, the goals are 21 and 15, respectively, for the year 2030 .

At the beginning of the 20th century , in India, a newborn baby had an average life expectancy of 21–23 years (Davis, 1951 ; Mukherji, 1976 ). The SRS life table available for the period 2013–2017 revealed that a newborn baby in India would live an average of more than 69 years, which is considerably lower than in other countries globally and in the South Asian region. Nonetheless, this is a significant improvement from just about 20 years to close to 70 years, and an essential aspect of this improvement relates to IMR. At the national level, the IMR was 80 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 , which declined to 68 in 2000 (12 points in 10 years; see Table 11 ). The first decade of the 21st century unfolded a significant decline in the IMR for India— 47 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 2010 and 34 per 1,000 in 2016 . Mortality decline in India and its states may have been due to improvements in access to health services and also an incremental increase in access to improved drinking water and sanitation. Similar to the global evidence (Fink et al., 2011 ), the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data for 1992–1993 and 2015–2016 revealed a quantum jump in access to sanitation facilities (IIPS, 1993 ; IIPS & ICF, 2017 ).

The acceleration, especially after 2005 , may be due to the Janani Suraksha Yojana program implemented under the National Health Mission (erstwhile known as the National Rural Health Mission). The program provided a cash incentive of Rs. 1400 to women who delivered their babies in a health facility (Stephen et al., 2010 ). However, compliance varies considerably across India’s states. In the year 1990 , Kerala had the lowest IMR (17 infant deaths per 1,000 live births), whereas it was higher in Odisha (122), followed by Madhya Pradesh (111) and Uttar Pradesh (99). By 2016 , IMR declined significantly in all states. While Kerala continued to occupy the first place with the lowest IMR, Madhya Pradesh replaced Odisha with an IMR of 47 deaths per 1,000 live births. The states, on the whole, have succeeded in reducing the IMR; however, the usual lagging states of Assam, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha continue to have higher IMRs.

Table 11. Infant Mortality Rate and Percentage Change in the Rate in India and Selected States, 1990–2016

a Undivided including Telangana for the years 1990, 1995, 2005, and 2010

b Undivided including Jharkhand for the years 1990 and 1995.

c Undivided including Chhattisgarh for the years 1990 and 1995.

d Undivided including Uttarakhand for the years 1990 and 1995.

Source: Infant mortality rates from the annual statistical report of the Sample Registration System of India.

Table 12 presents the gender-specific U5MRs for India and states for 1990–2016 . An average of 114 children per 1,000 live births died in India in 1990 before celebrating their 5th birthday, which declined to 39 in 2016 ; a two-thirds decline in 26 years. During the same period, the U5MR declined from 119 to 37 for male children and from 132 to 41 for female children. Similar to IMR, the U5MR fell relatively faster in the last 16 years in India ( 2000–2016 ) when compared with the corresponding change during 1990–2000 . Once again, there are vast differences across states of India in U5MR as well; the lagging states continue to have significantly higher levels of childhood mortality. In 2016 Kerala had the lowest U5MR (11), and the Madhya Pradesh had the highest (55), followed by Assam (52) and Odisha (50). The improvement in child survival in India brought a sense of security for the families to go for smaller families and contributed to the lowering of the TFR. An important point to note here is that regardless of the period studied, the U5MR in India has exceeded for female children compared to the male children. Surprisingly, most states have revealed a gender gap in childhood mortality. A study by Ram et al. ( 2013 , 2014 ) documented wide disparities in the levels of under-5 mortalities in districts of India.

Table 12. Gender-Specific Under-5 Mortality Rate and Percentage Change, India and Selected States, 1990–2016

a Undivided including Telangana for the years 1990, 1995, 2005, and 2010.

b Undivided including Jharkhand for the years 1990, 1995, 2005, and 2010.

c Undivided including Chhattisgarh for the years 1990, 1995, 2005, and 2010.

d Undivided including Uttarakhand for the years 1990, 1995, 2005, and 2010.

Source: Author calculations based on data from SRS Based Life Tables for 1988–1992, 1993–1997, 1998–2002, and 2003–2007. Data for 2015 and 2016 from the annual statistical report of the Sample Registration System of India for the respective years.

We now examine levels of life expectancy at birth (LEB). Table 13 presents the relevant data for India and its states for both sexes combined as well as separately. The LEB for India was nearly 49 years during 1970–1975 , which increased to about 58 years in 1986–1990 , an increase of 9 years in 16 years resulting in an annual improvement of approximately 0.6 years. By 1996–2000 , the LEB in India increased to 62 years and further to 69 years in 2013–2017 . Up until the 1980s, nationally, Indian males lived longer than the Indian females (Ram & Ram, 1997 ). Data on gender-specific LEB since 1993 indicates that in India, females now live longer than males, and the gap was by 2 years in 2013–2017 . The gender gap indeed widened in the mid-1990s when male LEB was at 60.4 years and females at 61.8 years. But at the same time, gender gaps in mortality have also widened for adolescents (to the female disadvantage), an anomaly indicating the downside of using only LEB for exploring gender disparity.

Table 13. Gender-Specific Life Expectancy at Birth and Changes in the Life Expectancy, India and Selected States, 1986–2017

$$ authors calculation using SRS gender-specific life tables.

b Undivided including Jharkhand for 1986–1990 and 1996–2000.

c Undivided including Chhattisgarh for 1986–1990 and 1996–2000.

d Undivided including Uttarakhand for 1986–1990, 1996–2000, and 2006–2010

Source: From Life tables of the Sample Registration System (SRS) of India.

Family Planning and Unmet Need

India acquired the status of being the first nation globally to launch an official family planning program in 1952 . However, the real push to the program came through in the 1960s when the program adopted a target-specific approach. The federal authorities in India assigned targets to the states, which were allocated to districts and further to the individual health workers at the lowest level of service provision. These targets became extremely volatile over the years, and the authorities announced disincentives and incentives to the users and the service providers based on performance (Pachauri, 2014 ). This period was accompanied by the emergency period ( 1975–1977 ) in India, when the program became extremely coercive. This act of the government damaged the program to a great extent and impacted the northern Hindi-speaking belt where fertility levels were higher. Although the success in fertility reduction in India is not comparable to that of other Asian countries, its achievements are by no means modest. In the initial phase, the program success was mostly monitored and evaluated using service statistics with the help of the number of acceptors and births averted as a result of family planning acceptance. Family planning surveys conducted in the 1970s and 1980s (ORG, 1972 , 1982 , 1990 ) complemented monitoring and evaluating efforts. After 1990 , India launched nationwide surveys (see IIPS, 1993 ; IIPS & ICF, 2017 ; IIPS & ORC-Macro 2000 , 2007 ). Tables 14 , 15 , and 16 give selected family planning indicators for India.

There has been a continuous rise in the percentage of married women using modern contraception in India. For example, just over 10% of married Indian women in 1970 used modern contraception (ORG, 1972 ). This percentage increased to 42.8% in 1998–1999 and to 48.5% in 2005–2006 (Table 14 ). India’s contraceptive prevalence rates (CPRs) are presented for the period between 1992–1993 to 2015–2016 in Table 13 . At the national level, overall CPR has increased from a little over 36% in the early 1990s to close to 48% in 2015–2016 , which translates to an increase of 12 units over the 23 years (an annual increase of 1.4%). The 2017 NFHS indicated that modern method CPR had marginally decreased from 48.5% in 2005–2006 to 47.8% in 2015–2016 (IIPS & ICF, 2017 ; IIPS & ORC-Macro, 2007 ). The decline in CPR of the modern method is substantial in many states, including Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. This has raised debates among policy makers and researchers because these states have concurrently exhibited a significant decline in TFR levels. There is some research evidence that has indicated doubt about the estimated CPR for the period 2015–2016 . A study by Jayachandran and Stover ( 2018 ) expressed concern over the quality of contraceptive data collected in the 2017 NFHS. The modern limiting method CPR showed an increase of five units (from 31% to a little over 36%) and there was a twofold rise in the modern spacing method CPR (from about 6% to over 11%) during the same period. Interestingly, CPR for traditional methods also increased, from 4% to almost 6% (IIPS & ICF, 2017 ).

The levels of CPR, as well as the pace of change in it, varied considerably across Indian states included in the analysis. Generally, the states in the southern and western regions revealed higher levels of CPR compared to those in the northern and eastern regions of India. While the CPR rose over time, Gujarat and Kerala had a marginal decline in the overall CPR. Assam, Odisha, and West Bengal (all three in the eastern region) and Uttar Pradesh in the northern part had higher CPR of the traditional method (abstinence and withdrawal/rhythm) compared to the remaining states. While the CPR for traditional methods declined in Assam and West Bengal, it increased from 1%–2% in 1992–1993 to over 12%–14% in 2015–2016 in Odisha and Uttar Pradesh. The use of traditional methods is higher among women who live in urban areas, who were more educated and resided in economically better-off households. The patterns of CPR are somewhat similar for the modern limiting and spacing methods across states, as seen for all methods combined. Nonetheless, a few states, such as Assam, Haryana, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, have shown a tremendous rise in the CPR for modern spacing methods.

Table 14. Contraceptive Prevalence Rate for Modem Limiting, Modern Spacing Methods and Traditional Methods of Family Planning and Percentage Change in Them, India and Selected States, 1992–2016

a Undivided including Telangana (1992–1993).

c Undivided including Chhattisgarh (1992–1993).

d Undivided including Uttarakhand (1992–1993 and 1998–1999).

Tables 15 and 16 provide data on the future demand for family planning as assessed using the information on unmet need for family planning over 25 years. Nationally, the unmet need for family planning declined by nearly 37% in two and a half decades; the unmet need of almost 20% in 1992–1993 to about 13% in 2015–2016 (Table 15 ). The unmet need for modern spacing methods had halved in the country from nearly 12% to 6% during the same period. However, the unmet need for family planning seemingly has remained unchanged since 2010 , as the decline was by only one percentage point (from 14% to 13% for all methods and from 6.1% to 5.6% for spacing methods). Gujarat and Kerala were the only states where the total unmet need for family planning increased over time. In the remaining states, the change in the total unmet need has followed the national pattern. While the total unmet need remained nearly unchanged in Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu, it increased only marginally in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Wes Bengal. The unmet need doubled in Gujarat and increased substantially in Kerala.

In contrast, the unmet need declined in Bihar, Odisha, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh during the same period. In case of unmet need for spacing methods, the data indicated substantial decline over the period for all states except Kerala, where unmet need for spacing methods rose from 6% to 8% in the last decade. A on-going investigation of NFHS data by Ram et al. ( in press ) showed that unmet need increased mainly due to the rise in the unmet need among the nonusers.

Table 15. Total Unmet Need for Family Planning, Unmet Need for Spacing, and Percentage Change, India and Selected States, 1992–2016