research papers in economics pdf

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• Browse content in A - General Economics and Teaching
• Browse content in A1 - General Economics
• A10 - General
• A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
• A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values
• A14 - Sociology of Economics
• Browse content in A2 - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics
• A29 - Other
• Browse content in B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches
• B0 - General
• Browse content in B1 - History of Economic Thought through 1925
• B11 - Preclassical (Ancient, Medieval, Mercantilist, Physiocratic)
• B12 - Classical (includes Adam Smith)
• Browse content in B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925
• B20 - General
• B21 - Microeconomics
• B22 - Macroeconomics
• B25 - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian
• B26 - Financial Economics
• Browse content in B3 - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
• B31 - Individuals
• Browse content in B4 - Economic Methodology
• B41 - Economic Methodology
• Browse content in B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches
• B55 - Social Economics
• Browse content in C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
• Browse content in C0 - General
• C00 - General
• C02 - Mathematical Methods
• Browse content in C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
• C10 - General
• C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General
• C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
• C13 - Estimation: General
• C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
• C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
• C19 - Other
• Browse content in C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
• C21 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
• C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
• C23 - Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
• C24 - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
• C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
• C26 - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
• Browse content in C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
• C31 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
• C32 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
• C33 - Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
• C34 - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
• C35 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
• C36 - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
• Browse content in C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
• C41 - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
• C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
• Browse content in C5 - Econometric Modeling
• C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
• C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
• C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
• C54 - Quantitative Policy Modeling
• Browse content in C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
• C60 - General
• C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
• C62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
• C63 - Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
• Browse content in C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
• C71 - Cooperative Games
• C72 - Noncooperative Games
• C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games
• C78 - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
• Browse content in C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
• C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
• C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
• C83 - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
• Browse content in C9 - Design of Experiments
• C90 - General
• C91 - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
• C92 - Laboratory, Group Behavior
• C93 - Field Experiments
• Browse content in D - Microeconomics
• Browse content in D0 - General
• D00 - General
• D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
• D02 - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
• D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
• D04 - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation, and Evaluation
• Browse content in D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics
• D10 - General
• D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory
• D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
• D13 - Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation
• D14 - Household Saving; Personal Finance
• D15 - Intertemporal Household Choice: Life Cycle Models and Saving
• D16 - Collaborative Consumption
• D18 - Consumer Protection
• D19 - Other
• Browse content in D2 - Production and Organizations
• D21 - Firm Behavior: Theory
• D22 - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
• D23 - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
• D24 - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
• D29 - Other
• Browse content in D3 - Distribution
• D30 - General
• D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
• D33 - Factor Income Distribution
• D39 - Other
• Browse content in D4 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
• D40 - General
• D41 - Perfect Competition
• D42 - Monopoly
• D43 - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
• D44 - Auctions
• Browse content in D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
• D50 - General
• D53 - Financial Markets
• D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
• Browse content in D6 - Welfare Economics
• D60 - General
• D61 - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
• D62 - Externalities
• D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
• D64 - Altruism; Philanthropy
• D69 - Other
• Browse content in D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
• D70 - General
• D71 - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
• D72 - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
• D73 - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
• D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
• D78 - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
• Browse content in D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
• D80 - General
• D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
• D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
• D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
• D84 - Expectations; Speculations
• D85 - Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
• D86 - Economics of Contract: Theory
• Browse content in D9 - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
• D90 - General
• D91 - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
• D92 - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
• Browse content in E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
• Browse content in E0 - General
• E00 - General
• E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
• E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
• Browse content in E1 - General Aggregative Models
• E10 - General
• E11 - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
• E12 - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
• E13 - Neoclassical
• E19 - Other
• Browse content in E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
• E20 - General
• E21 - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
• E22 - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
• E23 - Production
• E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
• E25 - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
• E26 - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
• E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Browse content in E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
• E30 - General
• E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
• E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Browse content in E4 - Money and Interest Rates
• E40 - General
• E41 - Demand for Money
• E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
• E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
• E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
• E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Browse content in E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
• E50 - General
• E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
• E52 - Monetary Policy
• E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
• Browse content in E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
• E60 - General
• E61 - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
• E62 - Fiscal Policy
• E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
• E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
• E69 - Other
• Browse content in E7 - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
• E70 - General
• E71 - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
• Browse content in F - International Economics
• Browse content in F0 - General
• F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
• Browse content in F1 - Trade
• F10 - General
• F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade
• F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
• F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
• F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
• F15 - Economic Integration
• F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
• F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
• F18 - Trade and Environment
• Browse content in F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business
• F21 - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
• F22 - International Migration
• F23 - Multinational Firms; International Business
• F24 - Remittances
• Browse content in F3 - International Finance
• F30 - General
• F31 - Foreign Exchange
• F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements
• F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
• F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
• F35 - Foreign Aid
• F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
• F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Browse content in F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
• F40 - General
• F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
• F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
• F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
• F44 - International Business Cycles
• F45 - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
• Browse content in F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
• F50 - General
• F51 - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
• F52 - National Security; Economic Nationalism
• F53 - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
• F55 - International Institutional Arrangements
• F59 - Other
• Browse content in F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization
• F62 - Macroeconomic Impacts
• F63 - Economic Development
• F64 - Environment
• Browse content in G - Financial Economics
• Browse content in G0 - General
• G01 - Financial Crises
• G02 - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
• Browse content in G1 - General Financial Markets
• G10 - General
• G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
• G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
• G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
• G15 - International Financial Markets
• G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
• Browse content in G2 - Financial Institutions and Services
• G20 - General
• G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
• G22 - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
• G24 - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage; Ratings and Ratings Agencies
• G28 - Government Policy and Regulation
• Browse content in G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance
• G32 - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
• G33 - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
• G34 - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
• G35 - Payout Policy
• G38 - Government Policy and Regulation
• Browse content in G5 - Household Finance
• G51 - Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
• Browse content in H - Public Economics
• Browse content in H0 - General
• H00 - General
• Browse content in H1 - Structure and Scope of Government
• H10 - General
• H11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
• H12 - Crisis Management
• Browse content in H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
• H20 - General
• H21 - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
• H22 - Incidence
• H23 - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
• H24 - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies; includes inheritance and gift taxes
• H25 - Business Taxes and Subsidies
• H26 - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
• Browse content in H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
• H30 - General
• H31 - Household
• Browse content in H4 - Publicly Provided Goods
• H40 - General
• H41 - Public Goods
• H42 - Publicly Provided Private Goods
• Browse content in H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
• H50 - General
• H51 - Government Expenditures and Health
• H52 - Government Expenditures and Education
• H53 - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
• H54 - Infrastructures; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
• H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions
• H56 - National Security and War
• Browse content in H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
• H60 - General
• H61 - Budget; Budget Systems
• H62 - Deficit; Surplus
• H63 - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
• Browse content in H7 - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
• H70 - General
• H71 - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
• H72 - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
• H75 - State and Local Government: Health; Education; Welfare; Public Pensions
• H76 - State and Local Government: Other Expenditure Categories
• H77 - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession
• Browse content in H8 - Miscellaneous Issues
• H83 - Public Administration; Public Sector Accounting and Audits
• H84 - Disaster Aid
• H87 - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
• Browse content in I - Health, Education, and Welfare
• Browse content in I0 - General
• I00 - General
• Browse content in I1 - Health
• I10 - General
• I12 - Health Behavior
• I14 - Health and Inequality
• I15 - Health and Economic Development
• I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
• I19 - Other
• Browse content in I2 - Education and Research Institutions
• I20 - General
• I21 - Analysis of Education
• I22 - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
• I23 - Higher Education; Research Institutions
• I24 - Education and Inequality
• I25 - Education and Economic Development
• I26 - Returns to Education
• I28 - Government Policy
• I29 - Other
• Browse content in I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
• I30 - General
• I31 - General Welfare
• I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
• I38 - Government Policy; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
• Browse content in J - Labor and Demographic Economics
• Browse content in J0 - General
• J00 - General
• J01 - Labor Economics: General
• J08 - Labor Economics Policies
• Browse content in J1 - Demographic Economics
• J10 - General
• J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
• J12 - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure; Domestic Abuse
• J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
• J14 - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
• J15 - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
• J16 - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
• J17 - Value of Life; Forgone Income
• J18 - Public Policy
• Browse content in J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor
• J20 - General
• J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
• J22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
• J23 - Labor Demand
• J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
• J26 - Retirement; Retirement Policies
• J28 - Safety; Job Satisfaction; Related Public Policy
• Browse content in J3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
• J30 - General
• J31 - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
• J32 - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
• J33 - Compensation Packages; Payment Methods
• J38 - Public Policy
• Browse content in J4 - Particular Labor Markets
• J41 - Labor Contracts
• J42 - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
• J45 - Public Sector Labor Markets
• J46 - Informal Labor Markets
• J48 - Public Policy
• Browse content in J5 - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining
• J50 - General
• J51 - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
• J52 - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation; Collective Bargaining
• J53 - Labor-Management Relations; Industrial Jurisprudence
• J54 - Producer Cooperatives; Labor Managed Firms; Employee Ownership
• J58 - Public Policy
• Browse content in J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
• J60 - General
• J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
• J62 - Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
• J63 - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
• J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
• J65 - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
• J68 - Public Policy
• Browse content in J7 - Labor Discrimination
• J71 - Discrimination
• Browse content in J8 - Labor Standards: National and International
• J81 - Working Conditions
• J88 - Public Policy
• Browse content in K - Law and Economics
• Browse content in K0 - General
• K00 - General
• Browse content in K1 - Basic Areas of Law
• K11 - Property Law
• K12 - Contract Law
• K13 - Tort Law and Product Liability; Forensic Economics
• K14 - Criminal Law
• K16 - Election Law
• K2 - Regulation and Business Law
• Browse content in K3 - Other Substantive Areas of Law
• K31 - Labor Law
• K32 - Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
• K34 - Tax Law
• K37 - Immigration Law
• Browse content in K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
• K41 - Litigation Process
• K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
• K49 - Other
• Browse content in L - Industrial Organization
• Browse content in L0 - General
• L00 - General
• Browse content in L1 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
• L10 - General
• L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
• L12 - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
• L13 - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
• L14 - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation; Networks
• L16 - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change; Industrial Price Indices
• Browse content in L2 - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
• L20 - General
• L21 - Business Objectives of the Firm
• L22 - Firm Organization and Market Structure
• L23 - Organization of Production
• L24 - Contracting Out; Joint Ventures; Technology Licensing
• L25 - Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
• L26 - Entrepreneurship
• L29 - Other
• Browse content in L3 - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise
• L30 - General
• L31 - Nonprofit Institutions; NGOs; Social Entrepreneurship
• L32 - Public Enterprises; Public-Private Enterprises
• L33 - Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions; Privatization; Contracting Out
• Browse content in L4 - Antitrust Issues and Policies
• L40 - General
• L41 - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices
• L43 - Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation
• Browse content in L5 - Regulation and Industrial Policy
• L50 - General
• L51 - Economics of Regulation
• L52 - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
• L53 - Enterprise Policy
• Browse content in L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing
• L60 - General
• L66 - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco; Wine and Spirits
• Browse content in L7 - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction
• L71 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
• L78 - Government Policy
• Browse content in L8 - Industry Studies: Services
• L81 - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
• L83 - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
• L86 - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
• Browse content in L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
• L94 - Electric Utilities
• L98 - Government Policy
• Browse content in M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
• Browse content in M1 - Business Administration
• M12 - Personnel Management; Executives; Executive Compensation
• M14 - Corporate Culture; Social Responsibility
• M16 - International Business Administration
• Browse content in M3 - Marketing and Advertising
• M31 - Marketing
• Browse content in M5 - Personnel Economics
• M50 - General
• M51 - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
• M52 - Compensation and Compensation Methods and Their Effects
• M53 - Training
• M54 - Labor Management
• M55 - Labor Contracting Devices
• Browse content in N - Economic History
• Browse content in N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
• N10 - General, International, or Comparative
• N11 - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
• N12 - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
• N13 - Europe: Pre-1913
• N15 - Asia including Middle East
• Browse content in N2 - Financial Markets and Institutions
• N20 - General, International, or Comparative
• N24 - Europe: 1913-
• N25 - Asia including Middle East
• Browse content in N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
• N31 - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
• N33 - Europe: Pre-1913
• N34 - Europe: 1913-
• Browse content in N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
• N40 - General, International, or Comparative
• N45 - Asia including Middle East
• N47 - Africa; Oceania
• Browse content in N5 - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries
• N50 - General, International, or Comparative
• N53 - Europe: Pre-1913
• N57 - Africa; Oceania
• Browse content in N7 - Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services
• N70 - General, International, or Comparative
• N72 - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
• Browse content in N9 - Regional and Urban History
• N97 - Africa; Oceania
• Browse content in O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
• Browse content in O1 - Economic Development
• O10 - General
• O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
• O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
• O13 - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
• O14 - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
• O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
• O16 - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
• O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
• O18 - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
• O19 - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
• Browse content in O2 - Development Planning and Policy
• O22 - Project Analysis
• O23 - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
• O24 - Trade Policy; Factor Movement Policy; Foreign Exchange Policy
• O25 - Industrial Policy
• Browse content in O3 - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
• O30 - General
• O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
• O32 - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
• O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
• O34 - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
• O38 - Government Policy
• O39 - Other
• Browse content in O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
• O40 - General
• O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
• O42 - Monetary Growth Models
• O43 - Institutions and Growth
• O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
• O49 - Other
• Browse content in O5 - Economywide Country Studies
• O50 - General
• O52 - Europe
• O53 - Asia including Middle East
• O55 - Africa
• O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
• Browse content in P - Economic Systems
• Browse content in P1 - Capitalist Systems
• P10 - General
• P13 - Cooperative Enterprises
• P16 - Political Economy
• P17 - Performance and Prospects
• Browse content in P2 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies
• P20 - General
• P26 - Political Economy; Property Rights
• Browse content in P3 - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions
• P31 - Socialist Enterprises and Their Transitions
• Browse content in P4 - Other Economic Systems
• P48 - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
• Browse content in P5 - Comparative Economic Systems
• P50 - General
• Browse content in Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
• Browse content in Q0 - General
• Q02 - Commodity Markets
• Browse content in Q1 - Agriculture
• Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
• Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
• Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
• Q16 - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
• Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade
• Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
• Browse content in Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation
• Q20 - General
• Q22 - Fishery; Aquaculture
• Q23 - Forestry
• Q25 - Water
• Q26 - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
• Q29 - Other
• Browse content in Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
• Q30 - General
• Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
• Q33 - Resource Booms
• Q34 - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
• Q38 - Government Policy
• Browse content in Q4 - Energy
• Q40 - General
• Q41 - Demand and Supply; Prices
• Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources
• Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy
• Q48 - Government Policy
• Browse content in Q5 - Environmental Economics
• Q50 - General
• Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects
• Q52 - Pollution Control Adoption Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
• Q53 - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
• Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming
• Q56 - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
• Q58 - Government Policy
• Browse content in R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics
• Browse content in R1 - General Regional Economics
• R10 - General
• R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
• R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Models
• Browse content in R2 - Household Analysis
• R23 - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
• R29 - Other
• Browse content in R4 - Transportation Economics
• R40 - General
• R41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
• Browse content in R5 - Regional Government Analysis
• R58 - Regional Development Planning and Policy
• Browse content in Z - Other Special Topics
• Browse content in Z1 - Cultural Economics; Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology
• Z10 - General
• Z11 - Economics of the Arts and Literature
• Z12 - Religion
• Z13 - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Social and Economic Stratification
• Z19 - Other
• Browse content in Z2 - Sports Economics
• Z21 - Industry Studies
• Z22 - Labor Issues
• Z29 - Other
• Browse content in Z3 - Tourism Economics
• Z30 - General
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Methods Used in Economic Research: An Empirical Study of Trends and Levels

The methods used in economic research are analyzed on a sample of all 3,415 regular research papers published in 10 general interest journals every 5th year from 1997 to 2017. The papers are classified into three main groups by method: theory, experiments, and empirics. The theory and empirics groups are almost equally large. Most empiric papers use the classical method, which derives an operational model from theory and runs regressions. The number of papers published increases by 3.3% p.a. Two trends are highly significant: The fraction of theoretical papers has fallen by 26 pp (percentage points), while the fraction of papers using the classical method has increased by 15 pp. Economic theory predicts that such papers exaggerate, and the papers that have been analyzed by meta-analysis confirm the prediction. It is discussed if other methods have smaller problems.

1 Introduction

This paper studies the pattern in the research methods in economics by a sample of 3,415 regular papers published in the years 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017 in 10 journals. The analysis builds on the beliefs that truth exists, but it is difficult to find, and that all the methods listed in the next paragraph have problems as discussed in Sections 2 and 4. Hereby I do not imply that all – or even most – papers have these problems, but we rarely know how serious it is when we read a paper. A key aspect of the problem is that a “perfect” study is very demanding and requires far too much space to report, especially if the paper looks for usable results. Thus, each paper is just one look at an aspect of the problem analyzed. Only when many studies using different methods reach a joint finding, we can trust that it is true.

Section 2 discusses the classification of papers by method into three main categories: (M1) Theory , with three subgroups: (M1.1) economic theory, (M1.2) statistical methods, and (M1.3) surveys. (M2) Experiments , with two subgroups: (M2.1) lab experiments and (M2.2) natural experiments. (M3) Empirics , with three subgroups: (M3.1) descriptive, (M3.2) classical empirics, and (M3.3) newer empirics. More than 90% of the papers are easy to classify, but a stochastic element enters in the classification of the rest. Thus, the study has some – hopefully random – measurement errors.

Section 3 discusses the sample of journals chosen. The choice has been limited by the following main criteria: It should be good journals below the top ten A-journals, i.e., my article covers B-journals, which are the journals where most research economists publish. It should be general interest journals, and the journals should be so different that it is likely that patterns that generalize across these journals apply to more (most?) journals. The Appendix gives some crude counts of researchers, departments, and journals. It assesses that there are about 150 B-level journals, but less than half meet the criteria, so I have selected about 15% of the possible ones. This is the most problematic element in the study. If the reader accepts my choice, the paper tells an interesting story about economic research.

All B-level journals try hard to have a serious refereeing process. If our selection is representative, the 150 journals have increased the annual number of papers published from about 7,500 in 1997 to about 14,000 papers in 2017, giving about 200,000 papers for the period. Thus, the B-level dominates our science. Our sample is about 6% for the years covered, but less than 2% of all papers published in B-journals in the period. However, it is a larger fraction of the papers in general interest journals.

It is impossible for anyone to read more than a small fraction of this flood of papers. Consequently, researchers compete for space in journals and for attention from the readers, as measured in the form of citations. It should be uncontroversial that papers that hold a clear message are easier to publish and get more citations. Thus, an element of sales promotion may enter papers in the form of exaggeration , which is a joint problem for all eight methods. This is in accordance with economic theory that predicts that rational researchers report exaggerated results; see Paldam ( 2016 , 2018 ). For empirical papers, meta-methods exist to summarize the results from many papers, notably papers using regressions. Section 4.4 reports that meta-studies find that exaggeration is common.

The empirical literature surveying the use of research methods is quite small, as I have found two articles only: Hamermesh ( 2013 ) covers 748 articles in 6 years a decade apart studies in three A-journals using a slightly different classification of methods, [1] while my study covers B-journals. Angrist, Azoulay, Ellison, Hill, and Lu ( 2017 ) use a machine-learning classification of 134,000 papers in 80 journals to look at the three main methods. My study subdivide the three categories into eight. The machine-learning algorithm is only sketched, so the paper is difficult to replicate, but it is surely a major effort. A key result in both articles is the strong decrease of theory in economic publications. This finding is confirmed, and it is shown that the corresponding increase in empirical articles is concentrated on the classical method.

I have tried to explain what I have done, so that everything is easy to replicate, in full or for one journal or one year. The coding of each article is available at least for the next five years. I should add that I have been in economic research for half a century. Some of the assessments in the paper will reflect my observations/experience during this period (indicated as my assessments). This especially applies to the judgements expressed in Section 4.

2 The eight categories

Table 1 reports that the annual number of papers in the ten journals has increased 1.9 times, or by 3.3% per year. The Appendix gives the full counts per category, journal, and year. By looking at data over two decades, I study how economic research develops. The increase in the production of papers is caused by two factors: The increase in the number of researchers. The increasing importance of publications for the careers of researchers.

The 3,415 papers

2.1 (M1) Theory: subgroups (M1.1) to (M1.3)

Table 2 lists the groups and main numbers discussed in the rest of the paper. Section 2.1 discusses (M1) theory. Section 2.2 covers (M2) experimental methods, while Section 2.3 looks at (M3) empirical methods using statistical inference from data.

The 3,415 papers – fractions in percent

The change of the fractions from 1997 to 2017 in percentage points

Note: Section 3.4 tests if the pattern observed in Table 3 is statistically significant. The Appendix reports the full data.

2.1.1 (M1.1) Economic theory

Papers are where the main content is the development of a theoretical model. The ideal theory paper presents a (simple) new model that recasts the way we look at something important. Such papers are rare and obtain large numbers of citations. Most theoretical papers present variants of known models and obtain few citations.

In a few papers, the analysis is verbal, but more than 95% rely on mathematics, though the technical level differs. Theory papers may start by a descriptive introduction giving the stylized fact the model explains, but the bulk of the paper is the formal analysis, building a model and deriving proofs of some propositions from the model. It is often demonstrated how the model works by a set of simulations, including a calibration made to look realistic. However, the calibrations differ greatly by the efforts made to reach realism. Often, the simulations are in lieu of an analytical solution or just an illustration suggesting the magnitudes of the results reached.

Theoretical papers suffer from the problem known as T-hacking , [2] where the able author by a careful selection of assumptions can tailor the theory to give the results desired. Thus, the proofs made from the model may represent the ability and preferences of the researcher rather than the properties of the economy.

2.1.2 (M1.2) Statistical method

Papers reporting new estimators and tests are published in a handful of specialized journals in econometrics and mathematical statistics – such journals are not included. In our general interest journals, some papers compare estimators on actual data sets. If the demonstration of a methodological improvement is the main feature of the paper, it belongs to (M1.2), but if the economic interpretation is the main point of the paper, it belongs to (M3.2) or (M3.3). [3]

Some papers, including a special issue of Empirical Economics (vol. 53–1), deal with forecasting models. Such models normally have a weak relation to economic theory. They are sometimes justified precisely because of their eclectic nature. They are classified as either (M1.2) or (M3.1), depending upon the focus. It appears that different methods work better on different data sets, and perhaps a trade-off exists between the user-friendliness of the model and the improvement reached.

2.1.3 (M1.3) Surveys

When the literature in a certain field becomes substantial, it normally presents a motley picture with an amazing variation, especially when different schools exist in the field. Thus, a survey is needed, and our sample contains 68 survey articles. They are of two types, where the second type is still rare:

2.1.3.1 (M1.3.1) Assessed surveys

Here, the author reads the papers and assesses what the most reliable results are. Such assessments require judgement that is often quite difficult to distinguish from priors, even for the author of the survey.

2.1.3.2 (M1.3.2) Meta-studies

They are quantitative surveys of estimates of parameters claimed to be the same. Over the two decades from 1997 to 2017, about 500 meta-studies have been made in economics. Our sample includes five, which is 0.15%. [4] Meta-analysis has two levels: The basic level collects and codes the estimates and studies their distribution. This is a rather objective exercise where results seem to replicate rather well. [5] The second level analyzes the variation between the results. This is less objective. The papers analyzed by meta-studies are empirical studies using method (M3.2), though a few use estimates from (M3.1) and (M3.3).

2.2 (M2) Experimental methods: subgroups (M2.1) and (M2.2)

Experiments are of three distinct types, where the last two are rare, so they are lumped together. They are taking place in real life.

2.2.1 (M2.1) Lab experiments

The sample had 1.9% papers using this method in 1997, and it has expanded to 9.7% in 2017. It is a technique that is much easier to apply to micro- than to macroeconomics, so it has spread unequally in the 10 journals, and many experiments are reported in a couple of special journals that are not included in our sample.

Most of these experiments take place in a laboratory, where the subjects communicate with a computer, giving a controlled, but artificial, environment. [6] A number of subjects are told a (more or less abstract) story and paid to react in either of a number of possible ways. A great deal of ingenuity has gone into the construction of such experiments and in the methods used to analyze the results. Lab experiments do allow studies of behavior that are hard to analyze in any other way, and they frequently show sides of human behavior that are difficult to rationalize by economic theory. It appears that such demonstration is a strong argument for the publication of a study.

However, everything is artificial – even the payment. In some cases, the stories told are so elaborate and abstract that framing must be a substantial risk; [7] see Levitt and List ( 2007 ) for a lucid summary, and Bergh and Wichardt ( 2018 ) for a striking example. In addition, experiments cost money, which limits the number of subjects. It is also worth pointing to the difference between expressive and real behavior. It is typically much cheaper for the subject to “express” nice behavior in a lab than to be nice in the real world.

(M2.2) Event studies are studies of real world experiments. They are of two types:

(M2.2.1) Field experiments analyze cases where some people get a certain treatment and others do not. The “gold standard” for such experiments is double blind random sampling, where everything (but the result!) is preannounced; see Christensen and Miguel ( 2018 ). Experiments with humans require permission from the relevant authorities, and the experiment takes time too. In the process, things may happen that compromise the strict rules of the standard. [8] Controlled experiments are expensive, as they require a team of researchers. Our sample of papers contains no study that fulfills the gold standard requirements, but there are a few less stringent studies of real life experiments.

(M2.2.2) Natural experiments take advantage of a discontinuity in the environment, i.e., the period before and after an (unpredicted) change of a law, an earthquake, etc. Methods have been developed to find the effect of the discontinuity. Often, such studies look like (M3.2) classical studies with many controls that may or may not belong. Thus, the problems discussed under (M3.2) will also apply.

2.3 (M3) Empirical methods: subgroups (M3.1) to (M3.3)

The remaining methods are studies making inference from “real” data, which are data samples where the researcher chooses the sample, but has no control over the data generating process.

(M3.1) Descriptive studies are deductive. The researcher describes the data aiming at finding structures that tell a story, which can be interpreted. The findings may call for a formal test. If one clean test follows from the description, [9] the paper is classified under (M3.1). If a more elaborate regression analysis is used, it is classified as (M3.2). Descriptive studies often contain a great deal of theory.

Some descriptive studies present a new data set developed by the author to analyze a debated issue. In these cases, it is often possible to make a clean test, so to the extent that biases sneak in, they are hidden in the details of the assessments made when the data are compiled.

(M3.2) Classical empirics has three steps: It starts by a theory, which is developed into an operational model. Then it presents the data set, and finally it runs regressions.

The significance levels of the t -ratios on the coefficient estimated assume that the regression is the first meeting of the estimation model and the data. We all know that this is rarely the case; see also point (m1) in Section 4.4. In practice, the classical method is often just a presentation technique. The great virtue of the method is that it can be applied to real problems outside academia. The relevance comes with a price: The method is quite flexible as many choices have to be made, and they often give different results. Preferences and interests, as discussed in Sections 4.3 and 4.4 below, notably as point (m2), may affect these choices.

(M3.3) Newer empirics . Partly as a reaction to the problems of (M3.2), the last 3–4 decades have seen a whole set of newer empirical techniques. [10] They include different types of VARs, Bayesian techniques, causality/co-integration tests, Kalman Filters, hazard functions, etc. I have found 162 (or 4.7%) papers where these techniques are the main ones used. The fraction was highest in 1997. Since then it has varied, but with no trend.

I think that the main reason for the lack of success for the new empirics is that it is quite bulky to report a careful set of co-integration tests or VARs, and they often show results that are far from useful in the sense that they are unclear and difficult to interpret. With some introduction and discussion, there is not much space left in the article. Therefore, we are dealing with a cookbook that makes for rather dull dishes, which are difficult to sell in the market.

Note the contrast between (M3.2) and (M3.3): (M3.2) makes it possible to write papers that are too good, while (M3.3) often makes them too dull. This contributes to explain why (M3.2) is getting (even) more popular and the lack of success of (M3.3), but then, it is arguable that it is more dangerous to act on exaggerated results than on results that are weak.

3 The 10 journals

The 10 journals chosen are: (J1) Can [Canadian Journal of Economics], (J2) Emp [Empirical Economics], (J3) EER [European Economic Review], (J4) EJPE [European Journal of Political Economy], (J5) JEBO [Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization], (J6) Inter [Journal of International Economics], (J7) Macro [Journal of Macroeconomics], (J8) Kyklos, (J9) PuCh [Public Choice], and (J10) SJE [Scandinavian Journal of Economics].

Section 3.1 discusses the choice of journals, while Section 3.2 considers how journals deal with the pressure for publication. Section 3.3 shows the marked difference in publication profile of the journals, and Section 3.4 tests if the trends in methods are significant.

3.1 The selection of journals

They should be general interest journals – methodological journals are excluded. By general interest, I mean that they bring papers where an executive summary may interest policymakers and people in general. (ii) They should be journals in English (the Canadian Journal includes one paper in French), which are open to researchers from all countries, so that the majority of the authors are from outside the country of the journal. [11] (iii) They should be sufficiently different so that it is likely that patterns, which apply to these journals, tell a believable story about economic research. Note that (i) and (iii) require some compromises, as is evident in the choice of (J2), (J6), (J7), and (J8) ( Table 4 ).

The 10 journals covered

Note. Growth is the average annual growth from 1997 to 2017 in the number of papers published.

Methodological journals are excluded, as they are not interesting to outsiders. However, new methods are developed to be used in general interest journals. From studies of citations, we know that useful methodological papers are highly cited. If they remain unused, we presume that it is because they are useless, though, of course, there may be a long lag.

The choice of journals may contain some subjectivity, but I think that they are sufficiently diverse so that patterns that generalize across these journals will also generalize across a broader range of good journals.

The papers included are the regular research articles. Consequently, I exclude short notes to other papers and book reviews, [12] except for a few article-long discussions of controversial books.

3.2 Creating space in journals

As mentioned in the introduction, the annual production of research papers in economics has now reached about 1,000 papers in top journals, and about 14,000 papers in the group of good journals. [13] The production has grown with 3.3% per year, and thus it has doubled the last twenty years. The hard-working researcher will read less than 100 papers a year. I know of no signs that this number is increasing. Thus, the upward trend in publication must be due to the large increase in the importance of publications for the careers of researchers, which has greatly increased the production of papers. There has also been a large increase in the number of researches, but as citations are increasingly skewed toward the top journals (see Heckman & Moktan, 2018 ), it has not increased demand for papers correspondingly. The pressures from the supply side have caused journals to look for ways to create space.

Book reviews have dropped to less than 1/3. Perhaps, it also indicates that economists read fewer books than they used to. Journals have increasingly come to use smaller fonts and larger pages, allowing more words per page. The journals from North-Holland Elsevier have managed to cram almost two old pages into one new one. [14] This makes it easier to publish papers, while they become harder to read.

Many journals have changed their numbering system for the annual issues, making it less transparent how much they publish. Only three – Canadian Economic Journal, Kyklos, and Scandinavian Journal of Economics – have kept the schedule of publishing one volume of four issues per year. It gives about 40 papers per year. Public Choice has a (fairly) consistent system with four volumes of two double issues per year – this gives about 100 papers. The remaining journals have changed their numbering system and increased the number of papers published per year – often dramatically.

Thus, I assess the wave of publications is caused by the increased supply of papers and not to the demand for reading material. Consequently, the study confirms and updates the observation by Temple ( 1918 , p. 242): “… as the world gets older the more people are inclined to write but the less they are inclined to read.”

3.3 How different are the journals?

The appendix reports the counts for each year and journal of the research methods. From these counts, a set of χ 2 -scores is calculated for the three main groups of methods – they are reported in Table 5 . It gives the χ 2 -test comparing the profile of each journal to the one of the other nine journals taken to be the theoretical distribution.

The methodological profile of the journals –  χ 2 -scores for main groups

Note: The χ 2 -scores are calculated relative to all other journals. The sign (+) or (−) indicates if the journal has too many or too few papers relatively in the category. The P -values for the χ 2 (3)-test always reject that the journal has the same methodological profile as the other nine journals.

The test rejects that the distribution is the same as the average for any of the journals. The closest to the average is the EJPE and Public Choice. The two most deviating scores are for the most micro-oriented journal JEBO, which brings many experimental papers, and of course, Empirical Economics, which brings many empirical papers.

3.4 Trends in the use of the methods

Table 3 already gave an impression of the main trends in the methods preferred by economists. I now test if these impressions are statistically significant. The tests have to be tailored to disregard three differences between the journals: their methodological profiles, the number of papers they publish, and the trend in the number. Table 6 reports a set of distribution free tests, which overcome these differences. The tests are done on the shares of each research method for each journal. As the data cover five years, it gives 10 pairs of years to compare. [15] The three trend-scores in the []-brackets count how often the shares go up, down, or stay the same in the 10 cases. This is the count done for a Kendall rank correlation comparing the five shares with a positive trend (such as 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5).

Trend-scores and tests for the eight subgroups of methods across the 10 journals

Note: The three trend-scores in each [ I 1 , I 2 , I 3 ]-bracket are a Kendall-count over all 10 combinations of years. I 1 counts how often the share goes up. I 2 counts when the share goes down, and I 3 counts the number of ties. Most ties occur when there are no observations either year. Thus, I 1 + I 2 + I 3 = 10. The tests are two-sided binominal tests disregarding the zeroes. The test results in bold are significant at the 5% level.

The first set of trend-scores for (M1.1) and (J1) is [1, 9, 0]. It means that 1 of the 10 share-pairs increases, while nine decrease and no ties are found. The two-sided binominal test is 2%, so it is unlikely to happen. Nine of the ten journals in the (M1.1)-column have a majority of falling shares. The important point is that the counts in one column can be added – as is done in the all-row; this gives a powerful trend test that disregards differences between journals and the number of papers published. ( Table A1 )

Four of the trend-tests are significant: The fall in theoretical papers and the rise in classical papers. There is also a rise in the share of stat method and event studies. It is surprising that there is no trend in the number of experimental studies, but see Table A2 (in Appendix).

4 An attempt to interpret the pattern found

The development in the methods pursued by researchers in economics is a reaction to the demand and supply forces on the market for economic papers. As already argued, it seems that a key factor is the increasing production of papers.

The shares add to 100, so the decline of one method means that the others rise. Section 4.1 looks at the biggest change – the reduction in theory papers. Section 4.2 discusses the rise in two new categories. Section 4.3 considers the large increase in the classical method, while Section 4.4 looks at what we know about that method from meta-analysis.

4.1 The decline of theory: economics suffers from theory fatigue [16]

The papers in economic theory have dropped from 59.5 to 33.6% – this is the largest change for any of the eight subgroups. [17] It is highly significant in the trend test. I attribute this drop to theory fatigue.

As mentioned in Section 2.1, the ideal theory paper presents a (simple) new model that recasts the way we look at something important. However, most theory papers are less exciting: They start from the standard model and argue that a well-known conclusion reached from the model hinges upon a debatable assumption – if it changes, so does the conclusion. Such papers are useful. From a literature on one main model, the profession learns its strengths and weaknesses. It appears that no generally accepted method exists to summarize this knowledge in a systematic way, though many thoughtful summaries have appeared.

I think that there is a deeper problem explaining theory fatigue. It is that many theoretical papers are quite unconvincing. Granted that the calculations are done right, believability hinges on the realism of the assumptions at the start and of the results presented at the end. In order for a model to convince, it should (at least) demonstrate the realism of either the assumptions or the outcome. [18] If both ends appear to hang in the air, it becomes a game giving little new knowledge about the world, however skillfully played.

The theory fatigue has caused a demand for simulations demonstrating that the models can mimic something in the world. Kydland and Prescott pioneered calibration methods (see their 1991 ). Calibrations may be carefully done, but it often appears like a numerical solution of a model that is too complex to allow an analytical solution.

4.2 Two examples of waves: one that is still rising and another that is fizzling out

When a new method of gaining insights in the economy first appears, it is surrounded by doubts, but it also promises a high marginal productivity of knowledge. Gradually the doubts subside, and many researchers enter the field. After some time this will cause the marginal productivity of the method to fall, and it becomes less interesting. The eight methods include two newer ones: Lab experiments and newer stats. [19]

It is not surprising that papers with lab experiments are increasing, though it did take a long time: The seminal paper presenting the technique was Smith ( 1962 ), but only a handful of papers are from the 1960s. Charles Plott organized the first experimental lab 10 years later – this created a new standard for experiments, but required an investment in a lab and some staff. Labs became more common in the 1990s as PCs got cheaper and software was developed to handle experiments, but only 1.9% of the papers in the 10 journals reported lab experiments in 1997. This has now increased to 9.7%, so the wave is still rising. The trend in experiments is concentrated in a few journals, so the trend test in Table 6 is insignificant, but it is significant in the Appendix Table A2 , where it is done on the sum of articles irrespective of the journal.

In addition to the rising share of lab experiment papers in some journals, the journal Experimental Economics was started in 1998, where it published 281 pages in three issues. In 2017, it had reached 1,006 pages in four issues, [20] which is an annual increase of 6.5%.

Compared with the success of experimental economics, the motley category of newer empirics has had a more modest success, as the fraction of papers in the 5 years are 5.8, 5.2, 3.5, 5.4, and 4.2, which has no trend. Newer stats also require investment, but mainly in human capital. [21] Some of the papers using the classical methodology contain a table with Dickey-Fuller tests or some eigenvalues of the data matrix, but they are normally peripheral to the analysis. A couple of papers use Kalman filters, and a dozen papers use Bayesian VARs. However, it is clear that the newer empirics have made little headway into our sample of general interest journals.

4.3 The steady rise of the classical method: flexibility rewarded

The typical classical paper provides estimates of a key effect that decision-makers outside academia want to know. This makes the paper policy relevant right from the start, and in many cases, it is possible to write a one page executive summary to the said decision-makers.

The three-step convention (see Section 2.3) is often followed rather loosely. The estimation model is nearly always much simpler than the theory. Thus, while the model can be derived from a theory, the reverse does not apply. Sometimes, the model seems to follow straight from common sense, and if the link from the theory to the model is thin, it begs the question: Is the theory really necessary? In such cases, it is hard to be convinced that the tests “confirm” the theory, but then, of course, tests only say that the data do not reject the theory.

The classical method is often only a presentation devise. Think of a researcher who has reached a nice publishable result through a long and tortuous path, including some failed attempts to find such results. It is not possible to describe that path within the severely limited space of an article. In addition, such a presentation would be rather dull to read, and none of us likes to talk about wasted efforts that in hindsight seem a bit silly. Here, the classical method becomes a convenient presentation device.

The biggest source of variation in the results is the choice of control/modifier variables. All datasets presumably contain some general and some special information, where the latter depends on the circumstances prevailing when the data were compiled. The regression should be controlled for these circumstances in order to reach the general result. Such ceteris paribus controls are not part of the theory, so many possible controls may be added. The ones chosen for publication often appear to be the ones delivering the “right” results by the priors of the researcher. The justification for their inclusion is often thin, and if two-stage regressions are used, the first stage instruments often have an even thinner justification.

Thus, the classical method is rather malleable to the preferences and interests of researchers and sponsors. This means that some papers using the classical technique are not what they pretend, as already pointed out by Leamer ( 1983 ), see also Paldam ( 2018 ) for new references and theory. The fact that data mining is tempting suggests that it is often possible to reach smashing results, making the paper nice to read. This may be precisely why it is cited.

Many papers using the classical method throw in some bits of exotic statistics technique to demonstrate the robustness of the result and the ability of the researcher. This presumably helps to generate credibility.

4.4 Knowledge about classical papers reached from meta-studies

Individual studies using the classical method often look better than they are, and thus they are more uncertain than they appear, but we may think of the value of convergence for large N s (number of observations) as the truth. The exaggeration is largest in the beginning of a new literature, but gradually it becomes smaller. Thus, the classical method does generate truth when the effect searched for has been studied from many sides. The word research does mean that the search has to be repeated! It is highly risky to trust a few papers only.

Meta-analysis has found other results such as: Results in top journals do not stand out. It is necessary to look at many journals, as many papers on the same effect are needed. Little of the large variation between results is due to the choice of estimators.

A similar development should occur also for experimental economics. Experiments fall in families: A large number cover prisoner’s dilemma games, but there are also many studies of dictator games, auction games, etc. Surveys summarizing what we have learned about these games seem highly needed. Assessed summaries of old experiments are common, notably in introductions to papers reporting new ones. It should be possible to extract the knowledge reached by sets of related lab experiments in a quantitative way, by some sort of meta-technique, but this has barely started. The first pioneering meta-studies of lab experiments do find the usual wide variation of results from seemingly closely related experiments. [25] A recent large-scale replicability study by Camerer et al. ( 2018 ) finds that published experiments in the high quality journal Nature and Science exaggerate by a factor two just like regression studies using the classical method.

5 Conclusion

The study presents evidence that over the last 20 years economic research has moved away from theory towards empirical work using the classical method.

From the eighties onward, there has been a steady stream of papers pointing out that the classical method suffers from excess flexibility. It does deliver relevant results, but they tend to be too good. [26] While, increasingly, we know the size of the problems of the classical method, systematic knowledge about the problems of the other methods is weaker. It is possible that the problems are smaller, but we do not know.

Therefore, it is clear that obtaining solid knowledge about the size of an important effect requires a great deal of papers analyzing many aspects of the effect and a careful quantitative survey. It is a well-known principle in the harder sciences that results need repeated independent replication to be truly trustworthy. In economics, this is only accepted in principle.

The classical method of empirical research is gradually winning, and this is a fine development: It does give answers to important policy questions. These answers are highly variable and often exaggerated, but through the efforts of many competing researchers, solid knowledge will gradually emerge.

Home page: http://www.martin.paldam.dk

Acknowledgments

The paper has been presented at the 2018 MAER-Net Colloquium in Melbourne, the Kiel Aarhus workshop in 2018, and at the European Public Choice 2019 Meeting in Jerusalem. I am grateful for all comments, especially from Chris Doucouliagos, Eelke de Jong, and Bob Reed. In addition, I thank the referees for constructive advice.

Conflict of interest: Author states no conflict of interest.

Appendix: Two tables and some assessments of the size of the profession

The text needs some numbers to assess the representativity of the results reached. These numbers just need to be orders of magnitude. I use the standard three-level classification in A, B, and C of researchers, departments, and journals. The connections between the three categories are dynamic and rely on complex sorting mechanisms. In an international setting, it matters that researchers have preferences for countries, notably their own. The relation between the three categories has a stochastic element.

The World of Learning organization reports on 36,000 universities, colleges, and other institutes of tertiary education and research. Many of these institutions are mainly engaged in undergraduate teaching, and some are quite modest. If half of these institutions have a program in economics, with a staff of at least five, the total stock of academic economists is 100,000, of which most are at the C-level.

The A-level of about 500 tenured researchers working at the top ten universities (mainly) publishes in the top 10 journals that bring less than 1,000 papers per year; [27] see Heckman and Moktan (2020). They (mainly) cite each other, but they greatly influence other researchers. [28] The B-level consists of about 15–20,000 researchers who work at 4–500 research universities, with graduate programs and ambitions to publish. They (mainly) publish in the next level of about 150 journals. [29] In addition, there are at least another 1,000 institutions that strive to move up in the hierarchy.

The counts for each of the 10 journals

Counts, shares, and changes for all ten journals for subgroups

Note: The trend-scores are calculated as in Table 6 . Compared to the results in Table 6 , the results are similar, but the power is less than before. However, note that the results in Column (M2.1) dealing with experiments are stronger in Table A2 . This has to do with the way missing observations are treated in the test.

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Dani Rodrik Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University 79 J.F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 [email protected]

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Dissertations from 2023 2023

Essays on International Trade and Economic Growth , Mateo Hoyos, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON MACROECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT , Guilherme Klein Martins, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON ALLOCATION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS, CREDIT, AND TIME , Anamika Sen, Economics

Dissertations from 2022 2022

THREE ESSAYS on GROWTH and DISTRIBUTION in DUAL ECONOMIES , Adam Aboobaker, Economics

WORK, WORKERS, AND REPRODUCING SOCIAL CONTROL: RACIAL POST-FORDISM AND ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS , Hannah Rebecca Archambault, Economics

Employer Power: Consequences for Wages, Inequality and Spillovers , Ihsaan Bassier, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON SOCIAL JUSTICE ISSUES: HEALTH, GENDER, AND POLICING , Travis B. Campbell, Economics

CREATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND COMPETITION THROUGH GREEN-INDUSTRIAL POLICIES , Camilo A. Gallego, Economics

Essays on Unpaid Care and Gender Inequality in India , Leila Gautham, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, THE STATE, AND EMPLOYMENT , Baris Guven, Economics

CONSTRAINTS AND ACCOMMODATED PREFERENCE: ESSAYS ON GENDER AND SOCIOECONOMIC INEQUALITY IN PAKISTAN , Sana Khalil, Economics

Essays on Anti-Discrimination Legislation Enforcement and Sex-Based Discrimination in U.S. Labor Markets , Carly McCann, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE CFA FRANC , Francis Perez, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CULTURAL PRODUCTION AND CREATIVE LABOR , Luke Pretz, Economics

FOUR ESSAYS ON PEACE CONSOLIDATION AND ETHNIC RECONCILIATION IN POSTWAR SRI LANKA , Narayani Sritharan, Economics

The Political Economy of Consumer Credit Expansion and Real Exchange Rate Policy in Dual Economies , Esra Nur Ugurlu, Economics

Dissertations from 2021 2021

Three Essays on Learning and Conflict Applied to Developing Countries , Amal Ahmad, Economics

The Political Economy of the Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention , Devika Dutt, Economics

CARE WORK IN CHILE’S SEGREGATED CITIES , Manuel Garcia, Economics

ESSAYS ON EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF LOCAL FISCAL POLICY IN BRAZIL , Raphael Rocha Gouvea, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF GLOBAL INACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE , Tyler A. Hansen, Economics

Three Essays on Socio-Institutional Ecosystems & Labor Structures , Jonathan Donald Jenner, Economics

CONSTRUCTING A MARXIAN INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL CONSIDERING THE TURNOVER OF CAPITAL AND REVISITING THE FALLING-RATE-OF-PROFIT HYPOTHESIS , Junshang Liang, Economics

Three Essays on Structural Change and Labor Market Adjustment in Developing Countries , Karmen Naidoo, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF LABOR MARKET POLICIES , Simon Dominik Sturn, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON LABOR AND MARRIAGE MARKETS: FARM CRISIS AND RURAL-TO-URBAN MIGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1920-1940 , Jennifer Withrow, Economics

Dissertations from 2020 2020

THREE ESSAYS ON GENDER-SPECIFIC EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES , SELIN SECIL AKIN, Economics

A New Economic History of Deindustrialization: Class Conflict and Race in the Motor City , Jackson Allison, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL ECONOMY: EXPLOITATION, TECHNICAL CHANGE, AND MULTISECTORAL ANALYSIS , Weikai Chen, Economics

Essays on Food Security, Gender and Agriculture , Berna Dogan, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE ECONOMICS OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE , Kuochih Huang, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON POLITICAL ECONOMY OF UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT: SPACE, CLASS AND STATE IN PAKISTAN , Danish Khan, Economics

ESSAYS ON WOMEN AND WORK IN INDIA AND ON OTHER-REGARDING PREFERENCES , Sai Madhurika Mamunuru, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE , Kartik Misra, Economics

Neoliberal Capitalism and the Evolution of the U.S. Healthcare System , Samantha Sterba, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE PAST AND FUTURE OF SOCIALISM , Mihnea Tudoreanu, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE “SCHOOL-TO-PRISON PIPELINE” , Anastasia C. Wilson, Economics

Endogenous Money, Corporate Liquidity Preferences and the Transformation of the U.S. Financial System , Yeo Hyub Yoon, Economics

Dissertations from 2019 2019

The Historical and Legal Creation of a Fissured Workplace: The Case of Franchising , Brian Callaci, Economics

Essays on the Minimum Wage, Immigration, and Privatization , Doruk Cengiz, Economics

Bangladesh's Energy Policy: Economic, Environmental, and Climate Change Impacts , Rohini Kamal, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE ENVIRONMENT , An Li, Economics

REVISITING THE EAST ASIAN MIRACLE: LABOR REGIMES, PROFITABILITY AND ACCUMULATION , Zhongjin Li, Economics

Dimensions of US Global Financial Power: Essays on Financial Sanctions, Global Imbalances, and Sovereign Default , Mariam Majd, Economics

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ACCUMULATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: Resource Extraction, Financialization, and Capital Flight as Barriers to Investment and Employment Growth , Seeraj Mohamed, Economics

STATE-LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING, MACROECONOMIC FISCAL POLICY, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE , Amanda Page-Hoongrajok, Economics

Essays on Monetary Policy in Developing Countries: Income Distribution, Housing and Unemployment , Zhandos Ybrayev, Economics

Resource Rents, Public Investment and Economic Development: The Case of Bolivia , Raul Zelada Aprili, Economics

Dissertations from 2018 2018

Three Essays on Governments and Financial Crises in Developing Economies, 1870-1913 , Peter H. Bent, Economics

Constraining Labor's “Double Freedom”: Revisiting the Impact of Wrongful Discharge Laws on Labor Markets, 1979-2014 , Eric Hoyt, Economics

SOCIAL STRUCTURE OF ACCUMULATION IN TURKEY (1963 – 2015) , Osman C. Icoz, Economics

Stumbling Toward the Up Escalator: How Trends in International Trade, Investment, and Finance Have Complicated Latin America’s Quest for Sustainable, Diversified Economic Development , Mary Eliza Rebecca Ray, Economics

Forms of Naturalism in Seminal Neoclassical Texts: An Analysis and Comparison of Léon Walras, John Bates Clark, and William Stanley Jevons , Mark Silverman, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON CHILD WELFARE IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE , Didier Wayoro, Economics

Dissertations from 2017 2017

Currency Mismatch and Balance Sheet Effects of Exchange Rate in Turkish Non-Financial Corporations , Serkan Demirkilic, Economics

The Impacts of Foreign Labor Migration of Men on Women's Empowerment in Nepal , Pratistha Joshi Rajkarnikar, Economics

Real and Nominal Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes , Emiliano Libman, Economics

Three Essays on International Economics and Finance , Juan Antonio Montecino, Economics

THREE ESSAYS ON “DOING CARE”, GENDER DIFFERENCES IN THE WORK DAY, AND WOMEN’S CARE WORK IN THE HOUSEHOLD , Avanti Mukherjee, Economics

Dissertations from 2016 2016

Colonial and Post-Colonial Origins of Agrarian Development: The Case of Two Punjabs , Shahram Azhar, Economics

Three Essays on the Social Determinants of Early Childhood Health and Development , Andrew Barenberg, Economics

ELITE CAPTURE, FREE RIDING, AND PROJECT DESIGN: A CASE STUDY OF A COMMUNITY-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN CEARÁ, BRAZIL , Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth, Economics

Three Essays on Sustainable Development in China: Social, Economic and Environmental Aspects , Ying Chen, Economics

Three Essays on Women's Land Rights in Rural Peru , Rosa L. Duran, Economics

Three Essays on Economic Stages and Transition , Ricardo R. Fuentes-Ramírez, Economics

Three Essays on U.S. Household Debt and the Sources of Systemic Financial Fragility , Thomas Herndon, Economics

Essays on Household Health Expenditures, National Health Insurance and Universal Access to Health Care in Ghana , EVELYN KWAKYE, Economics

Microfinance, Household Indebtedness and Gender Inequality , Theresa Mannah-Blankson, Economics

Three Essays on Labor Market Friction and the Business Cycle , Jong-seok Oh, Economics

Three Essays on Sustainability , Mark V. Paul, Economics

The Political Economy of Smallholder Incorporation and Land Acquisition , Alfredo R. Rosete, Economics

Employment and Family Leave Mandates: Three Essays on Labor Supply and Demand, Nontraditional Families, and Family Policy , Samantha Schenck, Economics

Endogenous Capacity, Multiple Equilibria and Thirlwall's Law: Theory and an Empirical Application to Mexico: 1950 - 2012. , Juan Alberto Vázquez Muñoz, Economics

Three Essays on the Macroeconomic Impacts of Rent Seeking , Kurt von Seekamm, Economics

Dissertations from 2015 2015

Essays on Growth Complementarity Between Agriculture and Industry in Developing Countries , Joao Paulo de Souza, Economics

Structural Transformation, Culture, and Women’s Labor Force Participation in Turkey , yasemin dildar, Economics

Essays on Information, Income, and the Sharing Economy , Anders F. Fremstad, Economics

Essays on Inequality, Credit Constraints, and Growth in Contemporary Mexico , Leopoldo Gómez-Ramírez, Economics

Three Essays on Macroeconomic Implications of Contemporary Financial Intermediation , Hyun Woong Park, Economics

The Labor Share Question in China , Hao Qi, Economics

Three essays on economic inequality and environmental degradation , Klara Zwickl, Economics

Dissertations from 2014 2014

Common Pool Resources and Rural Livelihoods in Stung Treng Province of Cambodia , Pitchaya Boonsrirat, Economics

The financialization of the nonfinancial corporation in the post-1970 U.S. economy , Leila Emami Davis, Economics

The Financial Underpinnings of the EU Crisis: Financial Deregulation, Privatization, and Asymmetric State Power , Nina Q. Eichacker, Economics

THE FINANCIAL SECTOR AND INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA: ESSAYS ON ACCESS TO FINANCE FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES IN SOUTH SUDAN AND KENYA , James A. Garang, Economics

OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GREAT RECESSION , Gonzalo Hernandez Jimenez, Economics

TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS INEQUALITY IN SOUTH KOREA , Hyeon-Kyeong Kim, Economics

Three Essays in Macroeconomic History , Joshua W. Mason, Economics

Essays on the Evolution of Inequality , Cem Oyvat, Economics

FINANCIALIZATION OF THE COMMODITIES FUTURES MARKETS AND ITS EFFECTS ON PRICES , Manisha Pradhananga, Economics

Productive Stagnation and Unproductive Accumulation in the United States, 1947-2011. , Tomas N. Rotta, Economics

Advertising and the Creation of Exchange Value , Zoe Sherman, Economics

Understanding Income Inequality in the United States , Mark J. Stelzner, Economics

CARE TIME IN THE U.S.: MEASURES, DETERMINANTS, AND IMPLICATIONS , Joo Yeoun Suh, Economics

Essays on the minimum wage , Ben Zipperer, Economics

Dissertations from 2013 2013

Credit Chains, Credit Bubles, and Financial Fragility: Explaining The U.S. Financial Crisis of 2007-09 , Thomas L Bernardin, Economics

A Knife Hidden in Roses: Development and Gender Violence in the Dominican Republic , Cruz Caridad Bueno, Economics

Sustaining Rural Livelihoods in Upper Svaneti, Republic of Georgia , Robin J Kemkes, Economics

Contract as Contested Terrain: An Economic History of Law and the Rise of American Capitalism , Daniel P MacDonald, Economics

Essays on the Rising Demand for Convenience in Meal Provisioning in the United States , Tamara Ohler, Economics

Social Emulation, the Evolution of Gender Norms, and Intergenerational Transfers: Three Essays on the Economics of Social Interactions , Seung-Yun Oh, Economics

Decollectivization and Rural Poverty in Post-Mao China: A Critique of the Conventional Wisdom , Zhaochang Peng, Economics

Capitalist Crisis and Capitalist Reaction: The Profit Squeeze, the Business Roundtable, and the Capitalist Class Mobilization of the 1970s , Alejandro Reuss, Economics

The Economics of Same-Sex Couple Households: Essays on Work, Wages, and Poverty , Alyssa Schneebaum, Economics

The Political Economy of Cultural Production: Essays on Music and Class , Ian J. Seda Irizarry, Economics

Essays Of Human Capital Formation , Owen Thompson, Economics

Dissertations from 2012 2012

Knowledge, Gender, and Production Relations in India's Informal Economy , Amit Basole, Economics

Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Determinants of Informal Employment: The Case of Clothing Traders in Johannesburg, South Africa , Jennifer E Cohen, Economics

The Relationship Between Mass Incarceration and Crime in the Neoliberal Period in the United States , Geert Leo Dhondt, Economics

Fair Trade, Agrarian Cooperatives, and Rural Livelihoods in Peru , Noah Enelow, Economics

Organic Farming and Rural Transformations in the European Union: A Political Economy approach , Charalampos Konstantinidis, Economics

The Sources of Financial Profit: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Transformation of Banking in the US , Iren G. Levina, Economics

A Minskian Approach to Financial Crises with a Behavioural Twist: A Reappraisal of the 2000-2001 Financial Crisis in Turkey , Mathieu Perron-Dufour, Economics

Essays on Urban Sprawl, Race, and Ethnicity , Jared M. Ragusett, Economics

Agriculture and Class: Contradictions of Midwestern Family Farms Across the Twentieth Century , Elizabeth Ann Ramey, Economics

Women In Conflict, Peacebuilding And Reconstruction: Insights From The Aftermath Of Nepal's Maoist Insurgency , Smita Ramnarain, Economics

Money, Reality, and Value: Non-Commodity Money in Marxian Political Economy , Joseph Thomas Rebello, Economics

Three essays on oil scarcity, global warming and energy prices , Matthew Riddle, Economics

The Political Economy of Agrarian Change in the People's Republic of China , Zhun Xu, Economics

Dissertations from 2011 2011

State Hegemony and Sustainable Development: A Political Economy Analysis of Two Local Experiences in Turkey , Bengi Akbulut, Economics

Financial evolution and the declining effectiveness of US monetary policy since the 1980s , Hasan Comert

Why China Grew: Understanding the Financial Structure of Late Development , Adam S. Hersh, Economics

Solving the "Coffee Paradox": Understanding Ethiopia's Coffee Cooperatives Through Elinor Ostrom's Theory of the Commons , Susan Ruth Holmberg, Economics

Migration, Remittances And Intra-Household Allocation In Northern Ghana: Does Gender Matter? , Lynda Joyce Pickbourn, Economics

Youth and Economic Development: A Case Study of Out-of-School Time Programs for Low-Income Youth in New York State , Kristen Maeve Powlick, Economics

The Real Exchange Rate And Economic Development , Martin Rapetti, Economics

Essays on International Reserve Accumulation and Cooperation in Latin America , Luis Daniel Rosero, Economics

Three Essays on Racial Disparities in Infant Health and Air Pollution Exposure , Helen Scharber, Economics

Dissertations from 2010 2010

Capitalism in Post-Colonial India: Primative Accumulation Under Dirigiste and Laissez Faire Regimes , Rajesh Bhattacharya, Economics

Uneven Development and the Terms of Trade: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis , Bilge Erten, Economics

Gendered Vulnerabilities After Genocide: Three Essays on Post-Conflict Rwanda , Catherine Ruth Finnoff, Economics

The Employment Impacts of Economy-wide Investments in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency , Heidi Garrett-Peltier, Economics

Household Employer Payroll Tax Evasion: An Exploration Based on IRS Data and on Interviews with Employers and Domestic Workers , Catherine B. Haskins, Economics

Racial Inequality and Affirmative Action in Malaysia and South Africa , Hwok-Aun Lee, Economics

Essays on Behavioral Labor Economics , Philip Pablo Mellizo, Economics

Three Essays on the Political Economy of Live Stock Sector in Turkey , Hasan Tekguc, Economics

The Impact Of Public Employment On Health , Wei Zhang, Economics

Dissertations from 2009 2009

Effort, work hours, and income inequality: Three essays on the behavioral effects of wage inequality , Michael Carr

Essays on investment, real exchange rate, and central bank in a financially liberalized Turkey , Deger Eryar

Essays On Investment, Real Exchange Rate, And Central Bank In A Financially Liberalized Turkey , Deger Eryar, Economics

Labor Turnover in the Child-Care Industry: Voice and Exit , Lynn A. Hatch, Economics

Three Essays on Conflict and Cooperation , Sungha Hwang, Economics

Economic Reforms in East African Countries: The Impact on Government Revenue and Public Investment , Adam Beni Swebe Mwakalobo, Economics

Post-Marxism After Althusser: A Critique Of The Alternatives , Ceren Ozselcuk, Economics

Essays on Financial Behavior and its Macroeconomic Causes and Implications , Soon Ryoo, Economics

Skill Mismatch and Wage Inequality in the U.S. , Fabian Slonimczyk, Economics

Linkages Between Inequality And Environmental Degradation: An Interregional Perspective , Marina S Vornovytskyy, Economics

Dissertations from 2008 2008

Migrant women and economic justice: A *class analysis of Anatolian -German women in homemaking and cleaning services , Esra Erdem

Emigrant or sojourner? The determinants of Mexican labor migration strategies to the United States , Florian K Kaufmann

Macrofinancial risk management in the U.S. economy: Regulation, derivatives, and liquidity preference , Marcelo Milan

Essays on behavioral economics , Wesley Jose Pech

The impact of land ownership inequality on rural factor markets , Fatma Gul Unal

Three essays on family care, time allocation, and economic well -being , Jayoung Yoon

Dissertations from 2007 2007

Capital flight and foreign direct investment in the Middle East and North Africa: Comparative development and institutional analysis , Abdullah Almounsor

Investment under financial liberalization: Channels of liquidity and uncertainty , Armagan Gezici

Three essays on social dilemmas with heterogeneous agents , Mark Howard

Between the market and the milpa: Market engagements, peasant livelihood strategies, and the on -farm conservation of crop genetic diversity in the Guatemalan highlands , S. Ryan Isakson

Late neoclassical economics: Restoration of theoretical humanism in contemporary mainstream economics , Yahya Mete Madra

Inequality and the Human Development Index , Elizabeth Anne Stanton

Dissertations from 2006 2006

Institutional settings and organizational forms: Three essays , Alper Duman

Labor market characteristics and the determinants of political support for social insurance , Anil Duman

State power, world trade, and the class structure of a nation: An overdeterminist class theory of national tariff policy , Erik E Guzik

Unions and the strategy of class transformation: The case of the Broadway musicians , Catherine P Mulder

Children's work and opportunities for education: Consequences of gender and household wealth , Sevinc Rende

The economics of immigration: Household and employment dynamics , Maliha Safri

Dissertations from 2005 2005

Capital flight from Southeast Asia: Case studies on Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand , Edsel L. Beja

Rethinking municipal privatization: A Marxian class analysis of the privatization of New York City's Central Park , Oliver David Cooke

Financial liberalization and its distributional consequences: An empirical exploration , Arjun Jayadev

Three essays on gender, land rights, and collective action in Brazil's rural political economy , Merrilee Mardon

Land markets, female land rights and agricultural productivity in Paraguayan agriculture , Thomas Masterson

Workers' struggles and transformations of capitalism at industrial enterprises in Russia, 1985–2000 , Maxim V Maximov

Economy and society: Class relations and the process of economic growth , Erik K Olsen

Gender, liberalization and agrarian change in Telangana , Smriti Rao

The contradictory imperatives of New Deal banking reforms. , Ellen D. Russell, Economics

Equity in community -based sustainable development: A case study in western India , Priya Parvathy Sangameswaran

Mandated wage floors and the wage structure: Analyzing the ripple effects of minimum and prevailing wage laws , Jeannette Wicks-Lim

Public enterprises in mixed economies: Their impact on economic growth and social equity , Andong Zhu

Dissertations from 2004 2004

An economic analysis of prison labor in the United States , Asatar P Bair

Three essays on income, inequality and environmental degradation , Rachel A Bouvier

The implementation and enforcement of environmental regulations in a less developed market economy: Evidence from Uruguay , Marcelo F Caffera

Race, altruism and trust: Experimental evidence from South Africa , Justine Claire Keswell

Exchanging entailments: The contested meaning of commodity exchange , Philip M Kozel

Three essays on capital account liberalization and economic growth: New measures, new estimates and the experience of South Korea , Kang-Kook Lee

Enterprise hybrids and alternative growth dynamics , Kenneth M Levin

Social interaction and economic institution , Yongjin Park

Research and policy considerations in the valuation and the allocation of environmental and health commodities , Mihail Samnaliev

Immiserizing growth: Globalization and agrarian change in Telangana, South India between 1985 and 2000 , Vamsicharan Vakulabharanam

Social networks and labor market outcomes: Theoretical expansions and econometric analysis , Russell E Williams

Dissertations from 2003 2003

Three essays on the evolution of cooperation , Jung-Kyoo Choi

Economic size and long -term growth: An empirical analysis of the consequences of small economic size on investment, productivity and income growth , Pavel E Isa

Essays on categorical inequality, non-linear income dynamics and social mobility in South Africa , Malcolm M Keswell

The effectiveness of tax incentives in attracting investment: The case of Puerto Rico , Carlos F Liard-Muriente

A theoretical and statistical exploration into the effects of morals, personality and uncertainty on hypothetical bias in contingent valuation , Joseph D Ogrodowczyk

The role of the stock market in influencing firm investment in China , Feng Xiao

Dissertations from 2002 2002

Essays on the threat effects of foreign direct investment on labor markets , Minsik Choi

An international analysis of child welfare , Nasrin Dalirazar

Fiscal faux pas? An empirical analysis of the revenue and expenditure implications of trade liberalization , Barsha Khattry

Property from the sky: The creation of property rights in the radio spectrum in the United States , Elizabeth M Kruse

Three essays on China's state owned enterprises: Towards an alternative to privatization , Minqi Li

From welfare rights to welfare fights: Neo -liberalism and the retrenchment of social provision , John Arthur O'Connor

Political community and individual gain: Aristotle, Adam Smith and the problem of exchange , Kimberly Kaethe Sims

Rethinking prostitution: Analyzing an informal sector industry , Marjolein Katrien van der Veen

Dissertations from 2001 2001

Land and labor markets among paddy producers in the Nepalese Tarai , Ravi Bhandari

What drives equity values: fundamentals or net flows? An empircal analysis of the 1982--1999 United States stock market boom , Lawrence Lee Evans

Investment, labor demand, and political conflict in South Africa , James S Heintz

Education, Inequality and Economic Mobility in South Africa , Thomas Nathaniel Hertz

Employer work -family programs: Essays on policy implementation, employee preferences, and parental childcare choices , Sally Jane Kiser

Valuing environmental health risks: A comparison of stated preference techniques applied to groundwater contamination , Tammy Barlow McDonald

Endogenous quality and intra-industry trade , Edward Allan McPhail

Perceptions of Massachusetts family and consumer sciences education professionals regarding the importance and use of the National Standards for Family and Consumer Sciences Education in Massachusetts , Jo Ann Pullen

From feudal serfs to independent contractors: Class and African American women's paid domestic labor, 1863–1980 , Cecilia M Rio

A home of one's own: Overcoming gender and familial status barriers to homeownership , Judith K Robinson

Springfield Armory as industrial policy: Interchangeable parts and the precision corridor , Bruce K Tull

Dissertations from 2000 2000

Intergroup inequality, social identity and economic outcomes , Katherine E Baird

Engendering Globalization: Household Structures, Female Labor Supply and Economic Growth , Elissa Braunstein

Capital, conditionality, and free markets: The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the effects of the neoliberal transformation in Latin America and the Caribbean , Andres Carbacho-Burgos

Rural institutions, poverty and cooperation: Learning from experiments and conjoint analysis in the field , Juan-Camilo Cardenas

Understanding the equal split as a bargaining convention and the role of residual claimancy in team production: Three essays in behavioral and experimental economics , Jeffrey Paul Carpenter

Enforcing market -based environmental policies , Carlos A Chavez Rebolledo

A comparative analysis of three economic theories focusing upon the international trade of hazardous waste (the case of electric arc furnace dust) , Amy Silverstein Cramer

The political economy of transformation in Hungary , Anita Dancs

Cross -media transfers of pollution and risk , Janine Marie Dombrowski

Essays on endogenous preferences and public generosity , Christina Margareta Fong

Con nuestro trabajo y sudor: Indigenous women and the construction of colonial society in 16th and 17th century Peru , Karen B Graubart

Banks, insider lending and industries of the Connecticut River Valley of Massachusetts, 1813–1860 , Paul Andre Lockard

Existence value: A reappraisal and cross -cultural comparison , Billy Manoka

Quality management systems and the estimation of market power exertion , Corinna Michaela Noelke

The power of personality: Labor market rewards and the transmission of earnings , Melissa Anne Osborne

Accumulation and European unemployment , Engelbert Richard Stockhammer

Modeling Superfund: A hazardous waste bargaining model with rational threats , Mary Anderson Taft

Welfare, inequality, and resource depletion: A reassessment of Brazilian economic growth, 1965–1993 , Mariano Torras

Dissertations from 1999 1999

Steadying the husband, uplifting the race: The Pittsburgh Urban League's promotion of black female domesticity during the Great Black Migration , Nina Elizabeth Banks

The origins of parallel segmented labor and product markets: A reciprocity-based agency model with an application to motor freight , Stephen V Burks

R&D, advertising, and profits: Economic theory, empirical evidence, and consequences for transfer pricing policy , David W DeRamus

Rethinking demand: A critique and reformulation of Marxian theories of price , David Leo Kristjanson

Wealth, the power to set terms, and the financing and control of firms , Paul N Malherbe

Intra -family transfers and the household division of labor: A case study of migration and remittance behavior in South Africa , Dorrit Ruth Posel

Transportation network policy modeling for congestion and pollution control: A variational inequality approach , Padma Ramanujam

The political economy of organized baseball: Analysis of a unique industry , Ross David Weiner

Dissertations from 1998 1998

The internationalization of production and its effects on the domestic behavior of United States manufacturing multinational firms , James Michael Burke

Neoliberal and neostructuralist theories of competitiveness and flexible labor: The case of Chile's manufactured exports, 1973-1996 , Fernando Ignacio Leiva

An econometric study of the export sector of Somalia , Mohamed A Osman

Financial liberalization, multinational banks and investment: Three essays on the cases of Hungary and Poland , Christian Erik Weller

Dissertations from 1997 1997

Structuralism and individualism in economic analysis: The "contractionary devaluation debate" in development economics , S Charusheela

Financial liberalization in Mexico, 1989-1993 , Colin Danby

CEO pay, agency, and the theory of the firm , Frederick Dexter Guy

Food quality regulation under trade agreements: Effects on the supply of food safety and competitiveness , Neal Hilton Hooker

Agency problems in the capital markets and the employment relationship: The possibility of efficiency-enhancing institutional innovation: An empirical case-study , Pierre Laliberte

New directions in the political economy of consumption , Allan Henry MacNeill

Capabilities and processes of industrial growth: The case of Argentina and the Argentine auto industry , Marcela Monica Miozzo

Manufacturers' responses to new nutrition labeling regulations , Eliza Maria Mojduszka

Rethinking rural development: Making peasant organizations work. The case of Paraguay , Jose R Molinas Vega

Property regimes, technology, and environmental degradation in Cuban agriculture , Hector R Saez

International multi-sector, multi-instrument financial modeling and computation: Statics and dynamics , Stavros Siokos

Three essays on government decision-making to implement and enforce environmental policies , Kristin Ellen Skrabis

Dissertations from 1996 1996

An economic critique of urban planning and the 'postmodern' city: Los Angeles , Enid Arvidson

Dissertations from 1995 1995

Trade liberalization and income distribution: Three essays with reference to the case of Mexico and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) , Mehrene E Larudee

Dissertations from 1994 1994

Subjectivism and the limits of F. A. Hayek's political economy , Theodore A Burczak

International currencies and endogenous enforcement , Roohi Prem

Three essays on key currencies and currency blocs , Ellen Tierney

Dissertations from 1993 1993

Capitalist regulation and unequal integration: The case of Puerto Rico , Jaime Eduardo Benson

Production and reproduction: Family policy and gender inequality in East and West Germany , Lynn Susan Duggan

Dissertations from 1992 1992

Capital controls and long-term economic growth , Jessica G Nembhard

Dissertations from 1990 1990

Concentration and product diversity in culture-based industries: A case study of the music recording industry , Peter James Alexander

Dissertations from 1987 1987

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE ECONOMIC POLICIES OF STATES IN THE THIRD WORLD: THE AGRARIAN POLICIES OF THE ETHIOPIAN STATE, 1941-1974 , HENOCK KIFLE

Dissertations from 1986 1986

The Political-Economy of Nuclear Power 1946-1982 , Steven Mark Cohn, Economics

Dissertations from 1985 1985

THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT ON RACIAL INEQUALITY: 1950 TO 1984 (BLACK, AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, GOVERNMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, LABOR) , PETER GEORGE BOHMER

THE GROWTH OF NONMARRIAGE AMONG U.S. WOMEN, 1954-1983 (MARRIAGE, FAMILY, HOUSEHOLDS, UNITED STATES) , ELAINE DENISE MCCRATE

Dissertations from 1983 1983

TAXATION AND PUBLIC SCHOOL FINANCE REFORM IN CONNECTICUT , MICHAEL ROBERT FEDEROW

Dissertations from 1982 1982

Evolution of a Hospital Labor System: Technology, Coercion, and Conflict , Jean E. Fisher, Economics

Dissertations from 1981 1981

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKET ECONOMY IN COLONIAL MASSACHUSETTS , RONA STEPHANIE WEISS

Dissertations from 1980 1980

Justice and economic theory. , Barry Stewart Clark, Economics

Dissertations from 1976 1976

EVALUATION OF NEOCLASSICAL THEORY OF PRICE, PRODUCTION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME. , MANUCHER DARESHURI

Dissertations from 1970 1970

COST PROBLEMS OF THE RUTLAND RAILROAD AND ITS SUCCESSORS FROM--1937 TO 1968 , ROBERT DAVID SMITH

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An Application of the Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition to the Price Deflation Problem

An application of the oaxaca-blinder decomposition to the price deflation problem (pdf).

We apply the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method used in the labor literature to split changes in average prices into inflation and quality components. The inflation measure is a full imputation Törnqvist price index. Using this index to deflate nominal spending properly allocates changes in the quality of goods to changes in real spending, not inflation.

Ana M. Aizcorbe and Jan de Haan

JEL Code(s) C43 E31 Published June 2024

The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value

If 2023 was the year the world discovered generative AI (gen AI) , 2024 is the year organizations truly began using—and deriving business value from—this new technology. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey  on AI, 65 percent of respondents report that their organizations are regularly using gen AI, nearly double the percentage from our previous survey just ten months ago. Respondents’ expectations for gen AI’s impact remain as high as they were last year , with three-quarters predicting that gen AI will lead to significant or disruptive change in their industries in the years ahead.

About the authors

This article is a collaborative effort by Alex Singla , Alexander Sukharevsky , Lareina Yee , and Michael Chui , with Bryce Hall , representing views from QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey, and McKinsey Digital.

Organizations are already seeing material benefits from gen AI use, reporting both cost decreases and revenue jumps in the business units deploying the technology. The survey also provides insights into the kinds of risks presented by gen AI—most notably, inaccuracy—as well as the emerging practices of top performers to mitigate those challenges and capture value.

AI adoption surges

Interest in generative AI has also brightened the spotlight on a broader set of AI capabilities. For the past six years, AI adoption by respondents’ organizations has hovered at about 50 percent. This year, the survey finds that adoption has jumped to 72 percent (Exhibit 1). And the interest is truly global in scope. Our 2023 survey found that AI adoption did not reach 66 percent in any region; however, this year more than two-thirds of respondents in nearly every region say their organizations are using AI. 1 Organizations based in Central and South America are the exception, with 58 percent of respondents working for organizations based in Central and South America reporting AI adoption. Looking by industry, the biggest increase in adoption can be found in professional services. 2 Includes respondents working for organizations focused on human resources, legal services, management consulting, market research, R&D, tax preparation, and training.

Also, responses suggest that companies are now using AI in more parts of the business. Half of respondents say their organizations have adopted AI in two or more business functions, up from less than a third of respondents in 2023 (Exhibit 2).

Gen AI adoption is most common in the functions where it can create the most value

Most respondents now report that their organizations—and they as individuals—are using gen AI. Sixty-five percent of respondents say their organizations are regularly using gen AI in at least one business function, up from one-third last year. The average organization using gen AI is doing so in two functions, most often in marketing and sales and in product and service development—two functions in which previous research  determined that gen AI adoption could generate the most value 3 “ The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier ,” McKinsey, June 14, 2023. —as well as in IT (Exhibit 3). The biggest increase from 2023 is found in marketing and sales, where reported adoption has more than doubled. Yet across functions, only two use cases, both within marketing and sales, are reported by 15 percent or more of respondents.

Gen AI also is weaving its way into respondents’ personal lives. Compared with 2023, respondents are much more likely to be using gen AI at work and even more likely to be using gen AI both at work and in their personal lives (Exhibit 4). The survey finds upticks in gen AI use across all regions, with the largest increases in Asia–Pacific and Greater China. Respondents at the highest seniority levels, meanwhile, show larger jumps in the use of gen Al tools for work and outside of work compared with their midlevel-management peers. Looking at specific industries, respondents working in energy and materials and in professional services report the largest increase in gen AI use.

Investments in gen AI and analytical AI are beginning to create value

The latest survey also shows how different industries are budgeting for gen AI. Responses suggest that, in many industries, organizations are about equally as likely to be investing more than 5 percent of their digital budgets in gen AI as they are in nongenerative, analytical-AI solutions (Exhibit 5). Yet in most industries, larger shares of respondents report that their organizations spend more than 20 percent on analytical AI than on gen AI. Looking ahead, most respondents—67 percent—expect their organizations to invest more in AI over the next three years.

Where are those investments paying off? For the first time, our latest survey explored the value created by gen AI use by business function. The function in which the largest share of respondents report seeing cost decreases is human resources. Respondents most commonly report meaningful revenue increases (of more than 5 percent) in supply chain and inventory management (Exhibit 6). For analytical AI, respondents most often report seeing cost benefits in service operations—in line with what we found last year —as well as meaningful revenue increases from AI use in marketing and sales.

Inaccuracy: The most recognized and experienced risk of gen AI use

As businesses begin to see the benefits of gen AI, they’re also recognizing the diverse risks associated with the technology. These can range from data management risks such as data privacy, bias, or intellectual property (IP) infringement to model management risks, which tend to focus on inaccurate output or lack of explainability. A third big risk category is security and incorrect use.

Respondents to the latest survey are more likely than they were last year to say their organizations consider inaccuracy and IP infringement to be relevant to their use of gen AI, and about half continue to view cybersecurity as a risk (Exhibit 7).

Conversely, respondents are less likely than they were last year to say their organizations consider workforce and labor displacement to be relevant risks and are not increasing efforts to mitigate them.

In fact, inaccuracy— which can affect use cases across the gen AI value chain , ranging from customer journeys and summarization to coding and creative content—is the only risk that respondents are significantly more likely than last year to say their organizations are actively working to mitigate.

Some organizations have already experienced negative consequences from the use of gen AI, with 44 percent of respondents saying their organizations have experienced at least one consequence (Exhibit 8). Respondents most often report inaccuracy as a risk that has affected their organizations, followed by cybersecurity and explainability.

Our previous research has found that there are several elements of governance that can help in scaling gen AI use responsibly, yet few respondents report having these risk-related practices in place. 4 “ Implementing generative AI with speed and safety ,” McKinsey Quarterly , March 13, 2024. For example, just 18 percent say their organizations have an enterprise-wide council or board with the authority to make decisions involving responsible AI governance, and only one-third say gen AI risk awareness and risk mitigation controls are required skill sets for technical talent.

Bringing gen AI capabilities to bear

The latest survey also sought to understand how, and how quickly, organizations are deploying these new gen AI tools. We have found three archetypes for implementing gen AI solutions : takers use off-the-shelf, publicly available solutions; shapers customize those tools with proprietary data and systems; and makers develop their own foundation models from scratch. 5 “ Technology’s generational moment with generative AI: A CIO and CTO guide ,” McKinsey, July 11, 2023. Across most industries, the survey results suggest that organizations are finding off-the-shelf offerings applicable to their business needs—though many are pursuing opportunities to customize models or even develop their own (Exhibit 9). About half of reported gen AI uses within respondents’ business functions are utilizing off-the-shelf, publicly available models or tools, with little or no customization. Respondents in energy and materials, technology, and media and telecommunications are more likely to report significant customization or tuning of publicly available models or developing their own proprietary models to address specific business needs.

Respondents most often report that their organizations required one to four months from the start of a project to put gen AI into production, though the time it takes varies by business function (Exhibit 10). It also depends upon the approach for acquiring those capabilities. Not surprisingly, reported uses of highly customized or proprietary models are 1.5 times more likely than off-the-shelf, publicly available models to take five months or more to implement.

Gen AI high performers are excelling despite facing challenges

Gen AI is a new technology, and organizations are still early in the journey of pursuing its opportunities and scaling it across functions. So it’s little surprise that only a small subset of respondents (46 out of 876) report that a meaningful share of their organizations’ EBIT can be attributed to their deployment of gen AI. Still, these gen AI leaders are worth examining closely. These, after all, are the early movers, who already attribute more than 10 percent of their organizations’ EBIT to their use of gen AI. Forty-two percent of these high performers say more than 20 percent of their EBIT is attributable to their use of nongenerative, analytical AI, and they span industries and regions—though most are at organizations with less than $1 billion in annual revenue. The AI-related practices at these organizations can offer guidance to those looking to create value from gen AI adoption at their own organizations.

To start, gen AI high performers are using gen AI in more business functions—an average of three functions, while others average two. They, like other organizations, are most likely to use gen AI in marketing and sales and product or service development, but they’re much more likely than others to use gen AI solutions in risk, legal, and compliance; in strategy and corporate finance; and in supply chain and inventory management. They’re more than three times as likely as others to be using gen AI in activities ranging from processing of accounting documents and risk assessment to R&D testing and pricing and promotions. While, overall, about half of reported gen AI applications within business functions are utilizing publicly available models or tools, gen AI high performers are less likely to use those off-the-shelf options than to either implement significantly customized versions of those tools or to develop their own proprietary foundation models.

What else are these high performers doing differently? For one thing, they are paying more attention to gen-AI-related risks. Perhaps because they are further along on their journeys, they are more likely than others to say their organizations have experienced every negative consequence from gen AI we asked about, from cybersecurity and personal privacy to explainability and IP infringement. Given that, they are more likely than others to report that their organizations consider those risks, as well as regulatory compliance, environmental impacts, and political stability, to be relevant to their gen AI use, and they say they take steps to mitigate more risks than others do.

Gen AI high performers are also much more likely to say their organizations follow a set of risk-related best practices (Exhibit 11). For example, they are nearly twice as likely as others to involve the legal function and embed risk reviews early on in the development of gen AI solutions—that is, to “ shift left .” They’re also much more likely than others to employ a wide range of other best practices, from strategy-related practices to those related to scaling.

In addition to experiencing the risks of gen AI adoption, high performers have encountered other challenges that can serve as warnings to others (Exhibit 12). Seventy percent say they have experienced difficulties with data, including defining processes for data governance, developing the ability to quickly integrate data into AI models, and an insufficient amount of training data, highlighting the essential role that data play in capturing value. High performers are also more likely than others to report experiencing challenges with their operating models, such as implementing agile ways of working and effective sprint performance management.

About the research

The online survey was in the field from February 22 to March 5, 2024, and garnered responses from 1,363 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. Of those respondents, 981 said their organizations had adopted AI in at least one business function, and 878 said their organizations were regularly using gen AI in at least one function. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.

Alex Singla and Alexander Sukharevsky  are global coleaders of QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey, and senior partners in McKinsey’s Chicago and London offices, respectively; Lareina Yee  is a senior partner in the Bay Area office, where Michael Chui , a McKinsey Global Institute partner, is a partner; and Bryce Hall  is an associate partner in the Washington, DC, office.

They wish to thank Kaitlin Noe, Larry Kanter, Mallika Jhamb, and Shinjini Srivastava for their contributions to this work.

This article was edited by Heather Hanselman, a senior editor in McKinsey’s Atlanta office.

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