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Risk analysis and evaluation unpacked.

Today’s blog offers an extensive understanding of risk analysis and evaluation. It’s a biggie, but we assure you all the information is critical to grasping the full scope of this aspect of risk management.

The objective of risk analysis is to support the evaluation of the nature and distribution of risk, and the development of appropriate strategies to manage the risk. The chart below illustrates typical risk events with different frequency and severity levels.

Examples of risks of different frequency and severity

Source: Mirzai & Makarov, 2005.

When some risks are known well and understood, and specific, mandated controls are in place, your risk analysis may proceed directly to risk treatment to evaluate the effectiveness of controls (Safe Work Australia, 2012). Qualitative methods are the most commonly applied, as they are relatively easy to use. Qualitative methods use descriptive terms to identify and record the severity and frequency of risk. Quantitative methods identify likelihoods as frequencies or probabilities and identify severity in terms of relative scale (orders of magnitude) or specific values (for example, estimates of cost, and number of fatalities). Monte Carlo simulation methods may be used to refine uncertainty in the estimates of frequency and severity into quantitative estimates. All risk analyses are based on assumptions that a certain event will (or will not) occur at a certain place and time, and under assumed circumstances. If those assumptions are incorrect, the risk assessment is flawed. Therefore you should validate the assumptions, especially those for the estimates of frequency for rare events, as much as possible and consider the widest range of risk scenarios (Australian Government, 2016). Most severity modelling today makes use of computerised analytical models (American Bureau of Shipping, 2000).

Risk evaluation or characterisation generates a risk value or rating for comparison and prioritisation based on criteria such as:

• project lifecycle stages
• industries, or

(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2011).

The following are the primary risk analysis and evaluation techniques currently in use by various industries:

• Subjective prioritisation: A simple qualitative form of risk analysis, which helps identify potential risk scenarios using structured hazard identification techniques, such as HAZOP and FMEA. Each scenario is assigned a priority category based on the perceived level of risk. Priority categories can be: 1) low, medium, high; 2) numerical assignments; 3) priority levels.
• Risk matrices/categorisation (semi-quantitative or qualitative; a form of scenario analysis): The matrix approach can be based on qualitative scenario analysis, semi-quantitative frequency and severity assessment, or more sophisticated statistical and mathematical modelling approaches, such as simulation for analysing low-frequency, high-impact incidents. The matrix or frequency-and-severity methodology is the foundation of all other risk methodologies and techniques. The output is frequency-weighted severity and risk is eventually linked to some value of loss. In the insurance sector, some sophisticated algorithms are used for the assessment of frequency and severity (see an example on Courtney method in Rot, 2008). The following is an illustration of the matrix methodology in a qualitative approach, as the value of impact and likelihood are predefined as opposed to actual measurement value of each risk.

Risk matrices by risk management industry (left) and COSO (right)

Source: Risk management industry, COSO

Risk matrices are forms of scenario analyses that assign probabilities to different levels of severity. As shown in the charts above, COSO believes the high-risk area (phantom risks) is at the top right corner of the matrix, whereas the risk management industry believes the high risk area (real risks) is situated at the bottom right corner, as the phantom risk events are unmanageable. Visually the matrix reveals a two-dimensional probability density function curve.

For operational activities in manufacturing, transaction processing and other activities involving a large volume of identical trials with small variations in loss amount, losses follow a Poisson frequency distribution and are characterised by a normal (or some other symmetrical) severity distribution. For most other risk management applications, event frequencies are not well-behaved and severity distributions are often positively skewed. Under these conditions, frequency multiplying severity is of little value (OpRisk Advisory and Towers Perrin, 2010).

Risk control measures that reduce frequency are preferred to consequence-reducing measures. For example, it is better to prevent a fire from starting than to mitigate the consequences of the fire after the conflagration (De JonghI, De JonghI, De JonghI & Van Vuuren, 2013).

An advantage of the matrix approach is that it allows risk ratings to be set based on the derived numerical risk values. A major shortcoming is that those values might not reasonably reflect the relative risk of events due to possible order-of-magnitude differences within the frequency and severity classes. To overcome this drawback, their relative scales are differentiated as shown in the matrix below. While matrix-based semi-quantitative risk assessment methods are easy to use, they will not generate more accurate assessments or provide a cost-benefit base for control options (Australian Government, 2016).

A basic semi-quantitative risk rating matrix with logarithmic scale

Source: Australian Government, 2016

Risk appetite matrix for risk averse organisations in manufacturing industry

Source: Bustad & Bayer, 2012

Unlike the matrix approach, the nomogram does not allow accidental formula tampering other than to choose the type of scale for the risk-value tie line. The charts that follow are nomograms in a logarithmic scale and nomograms with a cost-benefit capability. Essentially, nomograms are far more resistant to unintended distortion than the matrix (Australian Government, 2016).

Simple risk nomogram with logarithmic scale

Integrated risk calculation and cost-benefit analysis nomogram

• Harmonised threat/hazard and risk assessment (an application of risk matrices)

(Beauchemin & Dansereau, 2007)

The following are some applications of the harmonised threat and risk assessment methodology.

Threat likelihood table

Threat gravity/severity table

Threat levels table

Impact score: 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

Vulnerability impact on the probability of compromise after risk controls are in place

Vulnerability impact on the severity of outcome after control measures are in place

Basic vulnerability assessment

Risk controls’ impact on raw risks

Note: Probability of compromise is for the effectiveness of risk control measures when incident occurs.

• Risk heat map or Isopleth (an application of the risk matrix concept)

The risks located between red and green areas of the matrix below, especially the major risks are expected to be the key focus for risk assessment and management.

Source: SCRLC, 2011.

• Risk assessment interviews (qualitative scenario analysis): Interviews are very effective at uncovering how the business actually works. Information-seeking tools, such as suggestion boxes and hotlines rely on employees to volunteer information, and anonymity can be a barrier to uncover the root of the problem. Online surveys may not be effective, as not everyone reads every email, and not everyone who reads the email completes the survey. The in-person interview solves these problems. Facilitators have the advantage of being able to read nonverbal cues. Interviewees are more likely to open up in a conversation, especially when they are assured that their comments will remain in anonymity. The chart below highlights the different perspectives and the alignment of management's views on the company's risks, which ensures risk is managed from all angles (Paquin, 2014).

Topics: Risk management , risk methodologies , risk , risk assessment

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NOSA Five Star System

The NOSA Five Star System provides an independent audit outcome to clients in the quest to uphold the best principles of occupational risk management in everyday business operations. The NOSA 10-step audit process is based on a risk-driven approach. Measurement and evaluation of standards/requirements should be in accordance with process/site-specific risks rather than fixed or invariable criteria. The audit identifies a company’s strengths, weaknesses and opportunities for improvement in the day-to-day management of their HSE risks. The grading of a company’s system forms the basis of our internationally acclaimed NOSA Integrated Five Star System. Clients are awarded up to five stars and a NOSCAR as a symbol of occupational risk management excellence. General disclosures as per GRI (Global Reporting Initiative) requirements, related to sustainability and, ESG are now also part of our NOSA-integrated HSE audits. Not considered for star grading purposes, but reported on in the executive summary. The NOSA Five Star System identifies non-conformances, and areas of excellence and offers solutions through consultancy and training products, where required. We are the proud host of NOSHCON which is the well-recognised global HSE conference.

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The NOSA Integrated Five Star System is a framework for action and compliance that can be implemented anywhere in the world, for any industry type, and for any company of any size or structure. The system is driven by risk, thus minimum requirements can be tailored to the specific hazards of your industry, and your corporate and national requirements. Zero harm/fatality prevention is the ultimate goal.

Industry/sector types where it can be implemented:

• Manufacturing
• Mining (opencast, underground, quarries, coal, surface plant, hard rock and other minerals)
• Office/administration
• Construction

NOSA offers a holistic range of auditing services, from basic legal compliance audits to integrated health, safety and environmental (HSE) management system audits.

NOSA provides auditing services on any of the following systems/standards:

• Baseline / GAP audits
• NOSA Five Star System Standard (health and safety) and NOSA Integrated Five Star System (health, safety and environment)
• NOSA integrated and aligned five-star system standard (including corporate governance and social responsibility)
• NOSA contractor compliance audits (basic health and safety system)
• NOSA legal compliance opinions (in terms of Occupational Health and Safety and Mine Health and Safety Act requirements)
• Client specific – corporate standards / assurance audits
• Limited scope – incident management, maintenance system, etc.

A baseline/GAP audit is used as a basis for identifying deviations between a client’s management system and NOSA’s HSE Management Systems (the ideal state). The baseline audit serves as a consultative exercise, and while the client will receive a detailed site report, no star grading will be allocated. The audit focuses largely on OHS/HSE risks, and identifies any shortcomings of the OHS/HSE system on the client’s site.

A star-grading audit is conducted to determine the status of a client’s risk management system and compliance with the applicable NOSA protocol. The audit is typically conducted annually, but can be done more frequently, if requested by the client. The outcome of the audit can then be displayed as proof of a NOSA star grading.

NOSA’s consulting services comprise a team of highly qualified experts in environmental control, occupational health and hygiene, risk management and safety disciplines.

To assist with hazard/aspect identification (HIRA), hierarchal control development, to effectively eliminate occupational hazards, NOSA’s expert team helps negotiate and manage the challenges of modern business.

Strategic alliances have been formed with global environmental consultancies to facilitate service delivery excellence to all industries across the African continent, as well as the Middle East.

Client-specific needs are our focus and the NOSA consulting services team takes a bespoke approach for effective solutions to suit your operations. We also strive to deliver OHS/HSE processes that are sustainable and easily managed by the client’s on-site teams.

The NOSCAR is recognised as the highest level of excellence within the Occupational Health, Safety and Environmental risk management industry. These awards are a key part of recognising and acknowledging NOSA South African and International clients (companies on both the NOSA Five Star System and the NOSA Integrated Five Star System), who have achieved excellence during the period under review.

We are thrilled to congratulate all the achievers at the NOSCAR Awards. These awards celebrate those who have demonstrated exceptional dedication and accomplishment in the NOSA Five Star System and the NOSA Integrated Five Star System. This event marked our first face-to-face gathering post-COVID-19, held at the Maslow Hotel on Friday the 29th of September. The Ndlovu Youth Choir graced us with their performance, and we were delighted to see a record number of attendees – a testament to the anticipation and excitement surrounding the event.

We proudly recognised the following:

• NOSCAR winners, both platinum and green awards
• Top three company awards were distributed across the commercial, manufacturing, and mining sectors.
• International SIC winners and notable individuals were also honored.

View the full list of winners for the period ending March 2023.

NOSCAR WINNERS 2023

Top three company awards, international sic winners 2023, individual winners (cmb253) 2023, individual winners (cmb150) 2023.

The honour is awarded after a rigorous verification audit process. Eligible companies must meet stringent criteria — and then maintain them for a period of three years — in order to qualify for the NOSCAR Award.  During the period under review more than 800 industry and mining workplaces were audited by NOSA. NOSCAR companies in the past that gained this elite status represented 10% of the industry, both in South Africa and internationally, highlighting the significance of this achievement.

Click here to learn more about the NOSA competition criteria for regional and international awards.

All life is precious, and the NOSCAR continues to set the benchmark for wider collective endeavours to protect, preserve and save every life.

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National Occupational Safety Association (NOSA)

Table of Contents

National Occupational Safety Association (NOSA) stands as a pivotal entity in championing workplace safety, ensuring that industries and organizations prioritize the well-being of their workforce. Founded with a commitment to fostering safer work environments, NOSA has evolved into a global influencer, setting benchmarks and advocating for stringent safety standards across various sectors.

Importance of Workplace Safety

Workplace safety isn’t just a legal requirement; it’s a moral obligation. It ensures employees’ well-being, enhances productivity, and significantly reduces incidents, fostering a conducive work environment.

History and Evolution of NOSA

Established several decades ago, NOSA began its journey by setting foundational safety standards and has since grown exponentially. Its milestones mark the commitment to evolving safety protocols in workplaces.

NOSA’s Core Objectives and Missions

NOSA is dedicated to upholding safety standards through comprehensive training programs, certifications, and fostering a safety-conscious culture within organizations.

NOSA’s Impact on Industries

Through successful collaborations and impactful interventions, NOSA has transformed safety protocols across industries, significantly reducing workplace accidents.

NOSA’s Certification Programs

NOSA offers an array of certifications that not only enhance individual skill sets but also contribute to elevating a company’s safety standards, resulting in increased efficiency and reduced risks.

Global Reach of NOSA

NOSA’s influence extends globally, partnering with international organizations and setting precedents for safety standards worldwide.

Innovations and Future Initiatives

With advancements in technology, NOSA continues to innovate, leveraging technological tools to enhance safety measures and anticipates future challenges to preemptively address them.

Challenges and Solutions

Addressing industry-specific challenges remains a priority, and NOSA adopts a proactive approach, developing solutions through research and collaborations.

Collaborations and Partnerships

NOSA collaborates with governmental bodies, fostering stronger regulatory frameworks, and partners with other safety organizations to collectively advocate for better safety standards.

Success Metrics and Impact

Testimonials and measurable success metrics stand as a testament to NOSA’s efficacy in creating safer work environments, promoting confidence in its programs.

Role of NOSA in Creating Safety Culture

Beyond certifications, NOSA actively promotes a safety culture, nurturing awareness and understanding of safety practices among individuals and companies.

NOSA’s Training Methodologies

Interactive and engaging training methods ensure that individuals absorb and implement safety protocols effectively, making the learning experience impactful.

Public Perception and Awareness of NOSA

Public perception influences trust, and NOSA invests in awareness campaigns to build trust and credibility among the public and industries alike.

Continuous Improvement Strategies

NOSA values feedback and adapts continuously, ensuring its programs stay relevant and effective amid ever-evolving industry landscapes.

In conclusion, NOSA stands as a beacon for workplace safety, spearheading initiatives that transcend boundaries and elevate safety standards across industries globally.

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• Does NOSA offer online certification programs? Yes, NOSA provides online certification programs alongside in-person training. These online courses offer flexibility and accessibility for individuals seeking to enhance their safety knowledge and skills.
• How does NOSA measure the success of its interventions? NOSA employs various metrics to assess the effectiveness of its interventions. This includes tracking incident rates, evaluating participant feedback, monitoring compliance with safety standards, and measuring the impact on workplace safety culture.
• Can companies customize NOSA’s training programs to suit their needs? Yes, NOSA offers customizable training programs tailored to meet specific company requirements. This flexibility allows organizations to address their unique safety challenges and align training with their industry’s needs.
• What industries benefit the most from NOSA’s programs? NOSA’s programs are designed to benefit a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, construction, healthcare, mining, transportation, and more. Essentially, any industry that prioritizes workplace safety can benefit from NOSA’s initiatives.
• Is NOSA solely focused on large corporations, or does it cater to small businesses too? NOSA caters to businesses of all sizes. Whether it’s a large corporation or a small business, NOSA’s programs are adaptable and scalable to accommodate the safety needs of any organization, ensuring a safer work environment for everyone.

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NOSA HSE QUALIFYING CRITERIA AND CLASSIFICATION OF INCIDENTS

Hazard Identification & Risk Assessment (HIRA): 1 Day – R875.00 ex VAT

One of the primary objectives of the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Act 85 of 1993 and generally accepted  health and safety practices,  is to create a healthy, safe, and prepared working environment. In doing so assist in preventing injuries and illness to employees, damage to company assets such as equipment and property, and also not cause unnecessary damage to our environment.

This can be achieved by identifying the hazards, assessing their risks, and formulating a health and safety risk reduction management plan, to effectively implement effective controls to address and reduce the hazards and hopefully eliminate them altogether. If the hazard is slight or has a low-risk rating, it could also be mitigated or accepted by management.  Hazard identification risk assessment  is a skill that has to be learned and our course provides candidates with good knowledge and the necessary skills to conduct a risk assessment in the workplace.

There are many references made to hazard identification or risk assessment in the  OHS Act  and its regulations. Below are a few examples:

• OHS Act (8) – Employers must ensure a workplace free of risks by taking steps to eliminate or mitigate hazards or potential hazards
• OHS Act (10) – Manufacturers must ensure that their products are safe and without risk
• OHS Act (12) – Employers must identify hazards and evaluate the risks associated with work which constitutes a hazard to the health of employees
• OHS Act (18) – Health and safety representatives must identify potential hazards and potential major incidents in the workplace
• Major Hazard Installation Regulations (5) – An employer shall carry out risk assessments and submit them to the chief inspector, relevant local government and provincial director.
• Construction Regulations (5) – The client must prepare a baseline risk assessment for an intended construction project
• Construction Regulations (9) – A contractor must, before the commencement of any construction work and during such construction work, have risk assessments performed by a competent person
• Construction Regulations (10) – A fall protection plan must include a risk assessment of all work carried out from a fall risk position and the procedures and methods used to address all the risks identified per location

Performing risk assessments is not about creating endless amounts of paperwork, but rather together identify, measures and control risks in the working environment. We suggest that the health and safety representatives and management attend the training in hazard identification risk assessment.

Hazard Identification Risk Assessment (HIRA) Course Content and Modules:

• Legal requirements pertaining to risk assessments –The Occupational Health & Safety Act laws which pertain to risk assessments, the difference between baseline, continuous, issue-based risk assessments and also look into the process of continuous risk assessments
• The importance of conducting risk assessments – The need to and when to conduct a continuous risk assessment
• Risk assessment documentation  – Various documentation used in risk assessments e.g., checklists, planned task observation forms, standard operating procedures, etc
• Common hazards and risks encountered during a continuous risk assessment – The common risks and hazards encountered in the workplace
• Recording of findings – It is important to know how to record findings of your risk assessment so that it can be clearly communicated to the health and safety committee and the employer
• Remedial- and follow-up actions – Once hazards and risks have been identified and ranked, the employer then needs to act appropriately and implement control measures and methods to improve the safety of the working environment by reducing, mitigating, or eliminating the hazards

R875.00 excluding VAT

Duration of the course:

Hazard Identification Risk Assessment is a 1-day course.

Certification:

The delegates will be issued with a certificate once they have successfully completed the 1-day course and the certificate is valid for a 2-year period

Facilitation of the courses can be conducted on-site at your if you have a minimum of 8 delegates, or at one of our training venues in Johannesburg, Durban, Port Elizabeth, or Cape Town

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• About PRAMS
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• Maternal Mortality Prevention
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• Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) is a surveillance project of CDC and health departments.
• PRAMS collects jurisdiction-specific, population-based data on maternal attitudes and experiences before, during, and shortly after pregnancy.

Where the data comes from

The PRAMS sample of women who had a recent live birth is drawn from the jurisdiction's birth certificate file. Each participating site samples between 1,000 and 3,000 women annually. Women from some groups are sampled at a higher rate to ensure adequate data are available.

Data collection methods

Detailed prams methodology.

PRAMS uses standardized data collection procedures and instruments. This is to allow for comparisons among jurisdictions and optimal use of the data for single-jurisdiction or multi-jurisdiction analysis. However, each jurisdiction (or site) can customize certain portions of the protocol.

The principles and practices of mail/telephone survey methodology used by PRAMS are based primarily on the research of Don Dillman. 1 A key aspect of this approach is to make numerous and varied contacts with sampled mothers.

PRAMS uses three modes of data collection. Surveys can be completed by mailed questionnaire, telephone interview, and, starting with the 2023 birth cohort, online, using a web survey module. Selected women are first contacted by mail. If there is no response to repeated mailings, they are contacted and interviewed by telephone.

Each month at the jurisdiction level, a stratified sample is randomly drawn from the current birth certificate file. For each of these monthly samples, or "batches," a series of mailings begins 2 to 4 months after delivery. This is to allow new mothers time to respond to questions about the early postpartum period. With all mailings, an invitation is sent to complete the survey by web.

Telephone follow-up begins for nonrespondents after the mailing of the last questionnaire packet. The calling period continues for 2 to 4 weeks, and up to 15 calls are made for each viable telephone number.

Additional information on PRAMS methodology can be found here: The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS): overview of design and methodology .

The PRAMS Questionnaire

The original PRAMS questionnaire was developed in 1987. Topics addressed in the PRAMS survey include: preconception, prenatal, and postpartum care; obstetric history; maternal substance use; physical abuse; contraception; economic status; maternal stressors; and early infant development and health status. Learn more about the questionnaires and download the latest PRAMS questionnaires.

How the data is evaluated

Prams weighting process.

Each participating PRAMS site has a unique sampling approach. Thus, the data are weighted by jurisdiction. PRAMS aggregate data are not weighted to provide national estimates.

Each jurisdiction draws a stratified random sample of 100 to 250 new mothers monthly from a frame of eligible birth certificates. Sampling plans are tailored to each site's research and programmatic needs. PRAMS sites identify stratification variable(s) of interest for oversampling of sub-population(s). Commonly used stratification variables include: birth weight; maternal race and ethnicity; Medicaid status; and geography.

Survey responses are linked to select birth certificate information to create the data set for analysis. The PRAMS data set contains demographic and clinical information collected through each jurisdiction's vital records system. This birth certificate information is the basis for the random drawing of survey participants. This allows for generalization of results to each jurisdiction's entire population of births by using sampling, nonresponse, and noncoverage weights.

Analyzing PRAMS data requires special statistical software that accounts for the complex sampling designs that are used.

• Dillman DA. Mail and Internet surveys: the tailored design method. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2000.

PRAMS is a surveillance system developed to reduce infant morbidity and mortality by influencing maternal behaviors before, during, and after pregnancy.

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