essay on post covid india

India’s future and role in the post-COVID-19 world

Entering the Taj Mahal at the sunrise… The view was and is breathtaking

India will prioritize economic expansion and sustainability for sustained growth and influence on the world stage. Image: Unsplash/Julian Yu

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Stay up to date:.

We are gradually moving into a post-COVID dispensation.
There is a trend towards a more multipolar world and the power centre of the global economy is shifting to Asia.
In this new era, India will prioritize economic expansion and sustainability for sustained growth and influence on the world stage.

Almost two years after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic , the world is coming to terms with the disruptions caused by the virus. The most profound and consequential impact has been the pandemic’s toll on healthcare systems . And then there has been the more persistent and reverberating economic toll.

Government action to counter infections and contain the spread of the virus led to global supply shocks , especially in manufacturing, and lockdowns and other containment measures caused widespread business disruption. It is now clear that the pandemic has brought the world to the second great economic and financial crisis of the 21st century and is likely to have long-term structural repercussions. What’s more, it has laid bare the fragilities of the global economic and geopolitical order.

The churn in the international order, however, had begun even before the pandemic; power equations had already started to change because of geopolitical shifts. There was an indisputable trend towards a more multipolar world and the power centre of the global economy began to shift to Asia .

The current world order has been substantially altered and this is bound to give rise to a new post-COVID dispensation. In this state of flux, space has been created for aspiring and emerging powers to take centre stage and help shape a new world with a better future for all.

Indeed, rays of recovery are beginning to emerge in our economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the global economy will grow by 6% in 2021 , and forecasts 9.5% growth in the Indian economy . At the same time, the world is seeing exponential growth in digital services and infrastructure, from the adoption of large-scale work-from-home arrangements to the use of cloud services and videoconferencing.

Many tech leaders have noted that the advancements in digital transformation that were achieved within a couple of months would have normally taken two to three years. These are hopeful signs, but there is still much work to be done.

Have you read?

This indian state's response to covid-19 could be a model for equitable healthcare, 50 ways india’s last-mile covid-19 responders are leading the way to a just recovery, asian universities are on the rise. this is what it means for the rest of the world.

India ’s future on the world stage

Despite the economic devastation caused by the virus, India’s agile response has been commendable, especially as the country rallied to manage a deadly second wave of the virus early in 2021. India was the first country to feel the impact of the virulent Delta variant but quickly swung into action to ensure that as many people as possible were vaccinated. One billion doses of the vaccine have already been administered.

In addition to protecting its own population, India has also acted in the world’s best interest by providing medical supplies and equipment to more than 150 countries across the globe and placing a critical supply of the COVID-19 vaccine on the world market. Indeed, the pandemic is an inflection point for India to introspect on its potential as a global leader, especially coming at a time when the country is celebrating 75 years of independence .

For years, India has supplied crucial drugs and medications to the global market, more recently investing in the supply of the COVID-19 vaccine to ensure equitable access around the world.

Each of our Top 50 social enterprise last mile responders and multi-stakeholder initiatives is working across four priority areas of need: Prevention and protection; COVID-19 treatment and relief; inclusive vaccine access; and securing livelihoods. The list was curated jointly with regional hosts Catalyst 2030’s NASE and Aavishkaar Group . Their profiles can be found on www.wef.ch/lastmiletop50india .

Top Last Mile Partnership Initiatives to collaborate with:

#BackTheFrontline - Dasra Covid Action Collab Covid Livelihoods Coalition – CoLive Creative Dignity Migrants Resilience Collaborative Rapid Rural Community Response (RCRC) REVIVE Alliance Rural Access Coalition Saath Nirbhar - vartaLeap Coalition and ComMutiny SAMRIDH Sanjha Collective - Goonj Swasth

Top 50 Last Mile Responders to get behind: Aajeevika Bureau Adhyayan Foundation Antarang Foundation ARMMAN Arpan Barefoot College International Breakthrough Center for Wildlife Studies Conserve India Dasra Society Of Development Alternatives Dharma Life Doctors For You Dream a Dream Eleutheros Christian Society Every Infant Matters Frontier Markets Glocal Healthcare Goonj Haqdarshak Hasiru Dala Healing Fields Foundation Hemkunt Foundation iKure Indian Society of Agribusiness Professionals Indus Action Industree Foundation Jan Sahas Just Organik Karuna Trust LabourNet Services Lakshya Manah Wellness MAHAN Trust, Melghat Mann Deshi Foundation Mission Oxygen - Democracy People Foundation Naireeta Services Nidan Noora Health Pink Maharani Reap Benefit SaveLIFE Foundation SELCO Foundation Sevamob SEWA Cooperative Federation Spandan Samaj Seva Samiti Study Hall Educational Foundation (SHEF) Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS) Transforming Rural India Foundation Ziqitza Health Care Limited

At the start of the COVID crisis, India's South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) initiative held the first multilateral summit, inspiring the G20 and others to follow suit. With the country taking over the G20 presidency in December 2022 , it will certainly play a leading role in the post-COVID global recovery process.

Away from the pandemic, India is meeting other global commitments including living up to its climate mitigation promises . It is also well ahead of target to achieve other ambitious commitments such as making renewables 40% of its energy mix by 2030 and managing the sequestration of 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon.

At the ongoing United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) taking place in Glasgow, Scotland, Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed India to an ambitious Panchamrit pledge that will see the country address five key sectors of its economy to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The five sectors - energy, mobility, industry, infrastructure and cities, and agriculture - are critical to achieving the global 1.5-degree Celsius warming target.

A recent report from the World Economic Forum - Mission 2070: A Green New Deal for a Net-Zero India - outlines how India’s path to net zero will have an estimated economic impact of over $1 trillion by 2030 and around $15 trillion by 2070. In addition, India has prioritized cooperation, technology, and digitalization as part of its efforts to support the achievement of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Challenges and opportunities

India is marking 30 years since the deregulation of its economy , which is another significant turning point in its history and a testament to its ability to reinvent itself. Successive governments have been focused on achieving inclusive growth and self-sufficiency not just for the current generation but for generations to come. But the current administration’s efforts to promote digital empowerment and last-mile financial inclusion are especially noteworthy. Under the auspices of a government-backed digital payment system, millions of poor, unbanked families have entered the formal economy and can now access basic financial services.

On the global stage, India’s diplomatic efforts are driven by the philosophy of vasudhaiva kutumbakam - the world is one family. This is the kind of narrative the world needs for such a time as this. Indeed, India’s call for renewed and reformed multilateralism is resonating with global leaders and policy-makers.

In the past few years, major structural reforms have been launched by the Indian government to boost the long-term outlook of the economy. The government’s vision to catalyze India’s transformation is evident in the launch of several initiatives including the Gati Shakti National Master Plan and the Atmanirbhar Bharat mission.

The government has also announced the National Infrastructure Pipeline and National Monetization Plan to boost infrastructure development. This wide-ranging development agenda supports initiatives across multiple sectors including reforms to consolidate multiple and disparate labour laws, drafting of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and banking reforms. India must maintain the momentum of these laudable initiatives and continue to enhance the robustness and vitality of its economy. At the same time, these and other structural reforms should be aimed at ensuring equitable and inclusive growth.

This is critical because the pandemic has exposed and exacerbated existing inequalities and their impact on vulnerable groups who are mainly employed in the informal sector. These are inequalities that the Indian government was addressing even before the pandemic struck through inclusive and equitable development that includes the provision of income support for farmers, safe and affordable housing, safe drinking water and electricity for all.

Going forward, India will have to prioritize economic expansion and sustainability to maintain its trajectory of growth and influence. The country must continue to embrace transformational, rather than incremental change to shape an economic policy that supports rapid growth. This will require a continued commitment to wide-ranging and systemic sectoral reforms, with strong measures to restore fiscal balance and strengthen the banking system.

India will also need to continue making strides to increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business. The country will also have to ramp up its infrastructure efforts, not just for roads and bridges, but for health and education too. Equally critical is the need to ensure that India’s demographic advantage becomes a dividend and that millions of young people entering the workforce every year gain meaningful employment.

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One must also mention India’s renewed focus on the space sector via the recently launched Indian Space Association . Back here on planet earth, however, the Indian government is also placing due emphasis on manufacturing. With the reshoring of global supply chains and quest for geographical diversification in their redistribution, India offers a safe and stable destination and could emerge as an important hub for global manufacturing. India has a demographic advantage, skilled workforce, technical know-how, and the research and development capacity needed to create a strong niche for itself in the global market.

Last but not least, India is also expeditiously moving forward on its energy transition journey: the government’s plan to establish a National Hydrogen Mission is a step in the right direction. India also has a unique opportunity, and an important role, in fostering regional co-operation in South Asia, thus creating new opportunities for growth and prosperity.

Amid the ongoing volatility and change, India has a rare opportunity to undertake several policy changes to not only address the short-term public health challenges but also to become an important axis of power and influence in the post-COVID world. The World Economic Forum stands with India in its efforts to assume new leadership roles and to help propel the world into a better, brighter, and more sustainable future for all.

This article first appeared here .

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World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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Understanding Post-Covid-19 Governance Challenges in India: A Compendium of Essays

This compendium has eight long essays on governance challenges that have emerged in India in the wake of three waves of global Covid-19 pandemic. Contributed by governance experts including those with substantial experience in higher civil service and applied academic research, the essays focus on some of the key areas of governance such as public health, capacity for management and analysis of vital statistics, education, social welfare, urban governance, spatial planning, environmental regulation, and technology-enabled governance reforms. The essays survey the key issues in each of these domains, identify the emerging challenges and recommend policy measures to address the situation. Largely descriptive, and unconventional in narration, the essays have organized under two broad categories titled: (i) Health, Education and Environment in the Time of Pandemic: Lessons on Development and Welfare (ii) Pandemic, Cities and Technology: Questions of Priorities and Opportunities. The essays are briefly summarized below:

1. Recording Deaths with or without Covid-19 (Authors: Gopalan Balagopal and Narayanan Unni)

Covid-19 has raised many questions on the ability of India’s existing system to accurately record deaths caused by pandemics. In this context, this essay provides a detailed analysis of the existing mechanism for reporting deaths and births. It shows how the system lacks a consistent mechanism to capture the cause of death at the time of registration. As corrective measures, the authors recommend integration of Civil registration and Vital Statistics ( CRVS ) and a central identity management system, regular audit of birth and death records and a state-wise action plan for addressing the flaws in the current system.

2. The Covid-19 pandemic and the Health Sector: What Have We Learned? (Author: Shreelata Rao Seshadri)

This essay lists a series of lessons related to public health learned during the pandemic and points out that the response to the pandemic in India relied heavily on National Disaster Management Authority’s policies which are not a health-specific policy formulation. The essay recommends a revised set of guidelines along the lines of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework ( PIPF ). This framework proposes the setting up of surveillance centers, prediction mechanisms, laboratory networks and deployment of trained personnel. The essay concludes that there must also be efforts to improve the quality of data that is required for evidence-based policy making in the health sector.

3. School Education in the Post-Covid World (Author: C. K. Mathew)

After surveying a series of problems that the education sector in India has faced during the pandemic, this essay says that online education which has gained rapid currency during the crisis period should not be seen an alternative to conventional education and should be used only as a support mechanism. However, noting that technology is going to remain at the core of improving education infrastructure and content, the essay says that there must be special focus on blended learning. Teacher training in the future must be designed keeping in mind these demands. It recommends the constitution of National and State level committees which will have experts from various fields to oversee resuming education and efforts to bridge the learning gaps.

4. Post Covid-19 Economic Challenges and Environmental Regulation (Authors: Kanchi Kohli and Manju Menon)

This essay reviews the policy changes which lowered the environmental standards to incentivize the recovery of the pandemic-hit Indian economy. It argues that to make the environmental response matter to the threat of pandemics, it is necessary to reorient environmental regulations to the objectives of public health and safety rather than to more economic growth. Having experienced the health and economic catastrophe of the pandemic at a global scale, it would be sensible to not overlook the potential of environmental regulation to protect public health, and to prevent making populations already exposed to the covid pandemic more vulnerable due to air pollution and other forms of environmental degradation. The essay concludes that if forest conservation, coastal and marine regulation, infrastructure expansions and land use changes are to be measured against these metrics, we could expect different forms of impact assessments and regulatory decisions.

5. Covid-19 and Vulnerable Groups (Author: Aditi Mehta)

This essay attempts to understand the intersection of caste and poverty keeping the pandemic-induced stigmatization in mind. The analysis is based on the study conducted among the population of De-Notified Tribes (DnT) inhabiting peri-urban areas adjoining Udaipur city and in a mofussil town called Dabok. The essay looks at the material condition prevailing in various DnT communities which made it virtually impossible for them to follow public health advice during the pandemic. Caste and class added to the travails of Dalit and tribal women apart from the issues that they face along gender lines. Access to food and nutrition, access to essential commodities, access to basic healthcare also suffered during the pandemic. The increase in cases of child abuse and domestic violence were alarming throughout the pandemic. The essay lists out a set of measures focusing on what local self-governments can do in terms of providing basic citizens’ rights to the DnTs and other marginalized communities. Need for the government to focus on protecting livelihoods of the marginalized communities is stressed in the policy suggestions. Addressing gender gap issues, providing sexual and other healthcare services during crisis are suggested

6. Urban Development and Pandemic: A Time to Reset the Priorities (Author: Joy Oommen)

Administrators want their cities to be more resilient in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. Such urban resilience can be achieved, this essay argues, only by making the poor and vulnerable sections of the population more resilient to unanticipated shocks. This in turn would entail a series me of measures. Providing a cleaner and more hygienic environment, adequate and safe housing, access to reliable and affordable healthcare for them should form the core of this effort. This will call for an all-out effort to regularize and upgrade slums and other illegal colonies where the economically or socially weaker sections live, or to provide them with alternative accommodation. Increasing the stock of affordable rental housing is another priority. Availability of land is often mentioned as a constraint, but we see that many Government departments and PSU s are making plans to monetize the ‘ excess lands’ in their possession. This should stop and all excess lands should be handed over to Local Governments with a mandate to use them primarily for developing civic amenities and housing for the weaker sections. A reliable and efficient public transport system with coordination among all players — public and private- would help the cause of a cleaner environment while saving money and time for the commuters. Informal sector remains hit even now and special efforts would be needed to help those in the informal sector to get their jobs and livelihoods back. Targeted skill development and retraining, setting up of orderly and well-maintained markets, facilitating bank loans and ensuring support of civil society organizations are needed to achieve this.

7. Covid-19 and Compact Cities: Mis-aligned Institutional Goals, Policy Opportunism and Planning for Bengaluru (Author: Champaka Rajagopal)

At the root of the long-standing pre-occupation for decongestion in urban India is the historic bubonic plague, that inflicted most Indian cities in the early 20 th century. More than a 100-years hence, the Covid-19 pandemic has only reinforced the fear of congestion in Indian cities. The City of Bengaluru poses an apt example. Spatial master plans for Bengaluru have over the last four decades inconsistently oscillated between decongestion and compact cities as an overarching paradigm to shape the city’s future growth trajectories. The essay discusses why sprawl-oriented development dissuades preparedness for uncertainties and concludes by underscoring the need for empowering local governments to orchestrate diverse institutions with divergent values, to frame shared goals and outcomes for Bengaluru which keep the city better prepared for future shocks.

8. Opportunities and Challenges to E‑Governance During Covid-19 and After (Author: Krishna Mohan)

Covid-19 pandemic pushed the limits of India’s e‑governance infrastructure, mobile networks, and smart devices. Technology adoption has increased to a new height not only by the Centre but also by State and Local Governments, and citizens. Post-Covid, it has been a slow movement towards a contactless world. Thus, the essay argues, it is important for the Government to proactively plan for the new reality and emerge stronger from the crises by further accelerating the digital transformation of public service delivery and engagement through e – Governance. If leveraged correctly, this situation can help India attain new heights in terms of e- Governance adoption and utilization.

Read the Full Report

Attribution

The impact of COVID-19 and the policy response in India

Subscribe to global connection, maurice kugler and maurice kugler professor of public policy, schar school of policy and government - george mason university @kugler_maurice shakti sinha shakti sinha senior fellow - world resources international (wri india).

July 13, 2020

Much has been written about how COVID-19 is affecting people in rich countries but less has been reported on what is happening in poor countries. Paradoxically, the first images of COVID-19 that India associates with are not ventilators or medical professionals in ICUs but of migrant laborers trudging back to their villages hundreds of miles away, lugging their belongings. With most of the economy shut down, the fragility of India’s labor market was patent. It is estimated that in the first wave, almost 10 million people returned to their villages, half a million of them walking or bicycling. After the economic stoppage, the International Labor Organization has projected that 400 million people in India risk falling into poverty .

Agriculture is the largest employer, at 42 percent of the workforce, but produces just 18 percent of GDP. Over 86 percent of all agricultural holdings have inefficient scale (below 2 hectares). Suppressed incomes due to low agricultural productivity prompt rural-urban migration. Migration is circular, as workers return for some seasons, such as harvesting.

Evidence of Indian labor market segmentation is widely available—with a small percentage of workers being employed formally, while the lion’s share of households relies on income from self-employment or precarious jobs without recourse to rights stipulated by labor regulations. Only about 10 percent of the workforce is formal with safe working conditions and social security. Perversely, modern-sector employment is becoming “informalized,” through outsourcing or hiring without direct contracts. The share of formal employment in the modern sector fell from 52 percent in 2005 to 45 percent in 2012. During this period, formal employment went up from 33.41 million to 38.56 million (about 15 percent), while nonagricultural informal employment increased from 160.83 million to 204.03 million (about 25 percent) .

Most informal workers labor for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that emerged as intermediate inputs and services suppliers to the modern sector. However, workers struggle to get paid, which the government identifies as great challenge. Payroll and other taxes, as well as limited access to subsidized credit for large firms, are disincentives to MSME growth. Although over half of India has smartphone access, relatively few can telework. Retail and manufacturing jobs require physical presence involving direct client interaction. Indeed, income for families unable to telework has fallen faster.

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The government’s crisis response has mitigated damage, with a fiscal stimulus of 20 trillion rupees , almost 10 percent of GDP. Also, the Reserve Bank of India enacted decisive expansionary monetary policy . Yet, banks accessed only 520 billion rupees out of the emergency guaranteed credit window of 3 trillion rupees. In fact, corporate credit in June is lower than June last year by a wide margin after bank lending’s fall. S&P has estimated the nonperforming loans would increase by 14 percent this fiscal year . Corporations have deleveraged retiring old debts and hoarding cash, as have households. Recovery through investment and consumption has stalled . These trends are exacerbated due to the pandemic. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recovered 50 percent since May but at 47.2 it remains in negative territory. Services contribute over half of GDP but its PMI, even after bouncing back , remains low at 33.7 in June. Consumption of electricity, petrol, and diesel have regained from the lockdown lows but are still 10-18 percent below June 2019 levels . Agriculture has been the bright spot, with 50 percent higher monsoon crop sowing and fertilizer consumption up 100 percent. Unemployment levels had spiked to 23.5 percent but with a mid-June recovery to 8.5 percent—and then crept up again marginally.

The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA) and supply of subsidized food grains have acted as useful buffers keeping unemployment down and ensuring social stability. Thirty-six million people sought work in May 2020 (25 million in May 2019). This went up to 40 million in June 2020 (average of 23.6 million during 2013-2019 period). The government has ramped up allocation to the highest level ever, totaling 1 trillion rupees. Similarly, in addition to a heavily subsidized supply of rice and wheat, a special scheme of free supply of 5 kilograms of wheat/rice per person for three months was started and since extended by another three months, covering 800 million people. There have also been cash transfers of 500 billion rupees to women and farmers .

However, MNREGA has an upper bound of 100 days guaranteed employment and it also does not cover urban areas. Agriculture cannot absorb more labor, with massive underlying disguised unemployment. A post-pandemic survey shows that the MSME sector expects earnings to fall up to 50 percent this year. Critically, the larger firms are perceived healthier. However, small and micro enterprises, who have minimal access to formal credit, constitute 99.2 percent of all MSMEs . These are the largest source of employment outside agriculture. Their inability to bounce back could see India face further economic and also social tensions. The economy is withstanding both supply and demand shocks, with the wholesale prices index declining sharply .

We identified labor market pressures toward increased poverty, both in the extensive margin (headcount) and intensive margin (deprivation depth). India needs to ramp up MNREGA, introduce a guaranteed urban employment scheme, and boost further cash transfers to poor households. Government efforts have been enormous in macroeconomic policy (fiscal stimulus and monetary loosening) to mitigate adversity but fiscal space is narrowing, requiring the World Bank and other international financial institutions to step up and help avert even greater hardship. Also, ongoing advances towards structural economic policy reforms have to continue.

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We are gradually moving into a post-COVID dispensation.
There is a trend towards a more multipolar world and the power centre of the global economy is shifting to Asia.
In this new era, India will prioritize economic expansion and sustainability for sustained growth and influence on the world stage.

Almost two years after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic , the world is coming to terms with the disruptions caused by the virus.

The most profound and consequential impact has been the pandemic’s toll on healthcare systems . And then there has been the more persistent and reverberating economic toll.

It is now clear that the pandemic has brought the world to the second great economic and financial crisis of the 21st century and is likely to have long-term structural repercussions. What’s more, it has laid bare the fragilities of the global economic and geopolitical order.

India ’s future on the world stage

For years, India has supplied crucial drugs and medications to the global market, more recently investing in the supply of the COVID-19 vaccine to ensure equitable access around the world.

At the ongoing United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) taking place in Glasgow, Scotland, Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed India to an ambitious Panchamrit pledge that will see the country address five key sectors of its economy as a means to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The five sectors - energy, mobility, industry, infrastructure and cities, and agriculture - are critical to achieving the global 1.5-degree Celsius warming target.

A recent report from the World Economic Forum - Mission 2070: A Green New Deal for a Net-Zero India - outlines how India’s path to net zero will have an estimated economic impact of over $1 trillion by 2030 and around $15 trillion by 2070.In addition, India has prioritized cooperation, technology, and digitalization as part of its efforts to support the achievement of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Challenges and opportunities

The government has also announced the National Infrastructure Pipeline and the National Monetization Plan to boost infrastructure development. This wide-ranging development agenda supports initiatives across multiple sectors including reforms to consolidate multiple and disparate labour laws, drafting of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and banking reforms. India must maintain the momentum of these laudable initiatives and continue to enhance the robustness and vitality of its economy. At the same time, these and other structural reforms should be aimed at ensuring equitable and inclusive growth.

This is critical because the pandemic has exposed and exacerbated existing inequalities and their impact on vulnerable groups who are mainly employed in the informal sector. These are inequalities that the Indian government was addressing even before the pandemic struck through inclusive and equitable developmentthat providedincome support for farmers, safe and affordable housing, safe drinking water and electricity for all.

India has a demographic advantage, skilled workforce, technical know-how, and the research and development capacity needed to create a strong niche for itself in the global market.

Going forward, India will have to prioritize economic expansion and sustainability to maintain a trajectory of growth and influence. The country must continue to embrace transformational, rather than incrementalchangeto shape an economic policy that supports rapid growth. This will require a continued commitment to wide-ranging and systemic sectoral reforms,with strong measures to restore fiscal balance and strengthen the banking system.

India will also need to continue making strides to increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business. The country will also have to ramp up its infrastructure efforts, not just for roads and bridges, but for health and education too. Equally critical is the need to ensure that India’s demographic advantage becomes a dividend, and that millions of young people entering the workforce every year gain meaningful employment.

Amid the ongoing volatility and change, India has a rare opportunity to undertake several policy changes not only to address the short-term public health challenges, but also to become an important axis of power and influence in the post-COVID world. The World Economic Forum stands with India in its efforts to assume new leadership roles and to help propel the world into a better, brighter, and more sustainable future for all.

(Borge Brende is the President of the World Economic Forum.)

The views expressed above belong to the author(s) and the Narendra Modi website and Narendra Modi App does not necessarily endorse the views expressed.

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Review Article
Open access
Published: 14 October 2021

The plight of migrants during COVID-19 and the impact of circular migration in India: a systematic review

Joshy Jesline ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5774-8149 1 ,
John Romate ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0487-7849 1 ,
Eslavath Rajkumar ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3012-0391 1 &
Allen Joshua George ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9662-9863 1

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications volume 8 , Article number: 231 ( 2021 ) Cite this article

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Social policy

As per the reports of WHO, the COVID-19, first reported in December 2019, put the whole world in an unprecedented crisis and lingering uncertainty with innumerable deaths, generalised economic depression, unemployment, quarantine, unavoidable lockdown, and travel-ban that was imposed globally as a necessity to tackle the pandemic. Among the populace, the migrants were found to be one of the most vulnerable groups in this lockdown, as their very livelihood came to a complete standstill. This review-paper aims to investigate in detail the multiple facets of adversities the migrants went through in India during the lockdown and the socio-psychological impact of circular migration. Following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines, studies on migrant workers during COVID-19 and on circular migration were searched. Database searches on Scopus, PubMed, and PsychNet and manual searches on Google Scholar were carried out. From the initially identified 15,697 articles, 15 articles that met the inclusion criteria were chosen for review. The findings highlight the different plight of the migrants, who had the pressing need to head back home to safety despite the acute financial crisis and the travel problems. The poor quality of the relief camps with meagre rations and lack of facilities especially put the women and children in distress and generated a lot of psychosocial issues. The present study urges the mental health-care professionals to groom themselves for facing the challenges of a surge in mental illnesses by taking necessary measures. It also emphasises the need to establish a strong ethical alliance between the local population, health systems, local government mechanisms, and human rights associations in order to take a relook at the national migration policies.

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Dimensions of wellbeing and recognitional justice of migrant workers during the covid-19 lockdown in kerala, india, introduction.

The year 2019 brought with it a new pandemic, the COVID-19 that was first reported in the month of December as per the reports from World Health Organisation, and put the whole world in an unprecedented crisis, that has pushed it into a state of lingering uncertainty (WHO, 2020 ). The coronavirus disease 2019, commonly known as the COVID-19 pandemic, a corollary of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 infection, has led to a global public health crisis, innumerable deaths, generalised economic depression, redundancy, and quarantines (Aragona et al., 2020 ). The virus brought about a massive change to the existing systems and generated a whirlpool of hurdles that the people had never faced before or had no idea how to overcome. This eventually created overwhelming fear and mounting anxiety among the people due to the novelty of the crisis, the uncertainty it brought with it about how and when the situation will get back to normal, as well as the dread of an impending doom (Mishra and Sayeed, 2020 ). One of the biggest challenges was the complete lack of an effective treatment method or a preventive vaccine to overcome the virus (Rolland, 2020 ). To make matters worse, the pandemic affected people not only physically but also psychologically, economically, socially, and politically. People belonging to various socio-economic strata were affected adversely in this situation, regardless of their social status, as everyone had fallen prey to this crisis in one way or another. It is undeniably true that the life in the pandemic era effected a far-reaching change in the way people think, work and interact with one another around the world (Aragona et al., 2020 ). What is more, it has also taught the world the new normal ways of human relationships and social distancing, which are sure to linger on for quite a while (Ram, 2020 ; Rolland, 2020 ). It has also provided the world a lesson about the worthlessness of the rat race and the fragility of human life. It is certainly true that the pandemic has led the world to a paradigm shift in the attitude and behaviour of people as never before.

The pandemic brought with it lockdowns and travel-bans that were imposed by the governments all over the world as a necessity to tackle the pandemic and to rein in its outspread. However, the lockdown upset the daily routines of the people especially the working class who were put in a major financial predicament (Chander et al., 2020 ). A new normalcy of surviving in a state of constant panic came into place, with the people being asked to live in this uncertainty for a longer duration than what was anticipated in the beginning of the pandemic. A batch of novel practices came into existence as part of rigorous mitigation efforts, such as, “social distancing, household quarantine, facemasks, vigilant sanitisation and hand washing, and avoidance of public gatherings, public transportation etc.” (Rolland, 2020 ). As time passed and the situation became worse, the pandemic has slowly unmasked its harsh reality and people have started grasping this truth that the current state of the situation is going to last longer than what was presumed of it in the beginning, and this has affected them rather drastically. The transformational process of adapting to this pandemic risk as a public or global calamity, while dealing with the fear of contracting COVID-19, and managing the disease, is highly exhausting and not doable by all (Rolland, 2020 ).

The daily wagers were the worst sufferers of this lockdown. With the enforcement of the lockdown, not only were they without jobs but also were frustrated because of the cessation of their daily income on which they survived (Ram, 2020 ). Their very livelihood came to a complete standstill; as a result, they could not meet theirs as well as their families’ daily needs (Chakma, 2020 ). The migrants were found to be the most vulnerable among the working class to come under this economy fallout (Nanda, 2020 ). The situation affected people belonging to all classes; moreover, it has exposed in the bare open the blatant disparities that exist in the socio-economic and health-care facilities (Aragona et al., 2020 ). In addition, it has been found that the perils of sickness and deaths vary colossally by “social location, such as, race, social class, gender, age, ability, and geographic location” (Rolland, 2020 ). There were many reported cases of suicide and suicidal attempts especially by people from economically lower classes, as they were not able to cope with the problems stemming from the loss of job and income (Kumar and Vashisht, 2009 ; Mukhra, 2020 ; Nelson, 2020 ).

In addition, the mental strain this pandemic imposed on the common people was especially enormous. One such group that was highly and adversely affected by this crisis situation was the migrants, who had to move out to different parts of the country in search of jobs to sustain their families (Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020c ). There are about 100 million internal migrant workers in India, and most of them are daily-wage labourers who have travelled out from different states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, etc. to other states in search of unskilled or semi-skilled jobs (Hazarika, 2020). Based on the data obtained from the National Sample Survey (NSS) 2007–2008, out of the total workforce in India, about 28.3% were migrants. According to 2011 census, about 37% of India’s total population were found to be migrants (Singh, 2021 ). This was a climb of 139 million migrants from what was reported in 2001 census (Census of India, 2011 ; Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020c ).

These migrants too were trapped in the lockdown with no jobs and no money, facing major economic setback, besides being isolated from their families due to the sudden lockdown (Mishra and Sayeed, 2020 ). While India’s population of 1.3 billion people could not but come to terms with the changes of imposed social distancing, millions of migrant workers in India had other daunting tasks also to confront with (Londhe, 2020 ). The concept of social distancing bears no meaning for the migrants because of the persistence of even more pressing and nagging problems of insecurity and hunger. Based on the data obtained from Census 2011, it was found that there was a rise in total number of migrants by 30% from that of 2001, whose major destinations are growth centres and states like Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala (Census of India, 2011 ; Dandekar and Ghai, 2020 ; Nanda, 2020 ). Even though, the lockdown situation affected the community at large and people were obliged to stay at home, the migrants could not even be in the comfort of being locked in with their families; instead, they were destined to be stuck in a migrant land with no means to survive (Kumar et al., 2020 ). Therefore, this community had to endure more appalling hardships than anyone else, not only financially but also socially and mentally (Aragona et al., 2020 ; Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c).

In order to alleviate the suffering of migrants it is necessary to investigate, understand, and analyse the hardships they have been undergoing. In-depth explorations of the studies in the Indian context dealing with circular migration and their psychological impact are needed to foster greater awareness among the public and to introduce new measures that can be adopted to safeguard the rights of the migrants.

This review-paper aims to study in detail the multiple facets of the predicaments the migrant workers were going through in the Indian context during the pandemic and the lockdown. Its main objective is to focus on the hardships that have led the migrants to a circular migration or reverse migration and the adversities that have been brought about by circular migration during the pandemic upon the migrants. The study also aims to shed light on the psychological toll inflicted by this pandemic on the migrants and the resultant reverse migration. Furthermore, it focuses on the means to address the issues concerning their mental health-care, and makes recommendations on the measures to protect their human rights and safeguard their lives and livelihood.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first systematic review that has specifically focused on the plight of the migrant workers during the pandemic and the issues revolving around circular migration in the Indian context. The consequences of this pandemic have put the world in a state of impending doom and therefore, there is a compelling need to address the situation especially of the migrants who are among the groups, which are most affected by the adverse outcomes of COVID-19 and subsequent restrictions on mobility. A systematic review helps to synthesise the data related to this from all available sources and to integrate them in order to efficiently reach and promote awareness among health-care professionals, policy makers, administrative staff, future researchers, and the general public. The findings of this study could therefore be used for formulating new strategies for the betterment of migrant workers.

Types of studies included

Studies on migration and circular migration of Indians during the COVID-19 crisis were considered to be included in the current systematic review, regardless of the type of study, research design, or the outcomes. However, studies on emigrants, immigrants, and migrants in other countries were excluded from the study.

Subjects of the study

The population for the study were unskilled migrant workers in India, who were among the most affected during the lockdown due to their low socio-economic status, besides being increasingly prone to mental health issues.

Search strategy

The search string used in Scopus was: TITLE-ABS-KEY (“circular migration”) OR TITLE-ABS-KEY (migration) OR TITLE-ABS-KEY (migrant) AND TITLE-ABS-KEY (covid) OR TITLE-ABS-KEY (covid-19); in PsychNET (Abstract: “circular migration” OR Abstract: “migration” OR Abstract: “migrant” AND Abstract: “covid” OR Abstract: “covid-19” AND Publication); and in PubMed (“circular migration” [Title/Abstract] OR “migration” [Title/Abstract] OR “migrant” [Title/Abstract]) AND “covid” [Title/Abstract]) OR “covid-19” [Title/Abstract]).

Data management

All pinpointed references were imported to Zotero, a bibliographic reference management tool, and all duplicates were removed. The de-duplicated citations in Zotero were imported to the data extraction form for coding.

Selection of studies

The first and third authors simultaneously screened the articles for the titles and abstracts and did the initial screening and data extraction independently. Articles that dealt with the plight of migrant workers during COVID-19 pandemic were included for the full text review. After the primary screening, the selected articles were reviewed for full text reading to determine their eligibility. The articles were selected if they were falling under the time-period of 2019–20 and discussed the plight of migrants during the lockdown and also addressed their psychological issues during this crisis in the Indian context. Final decision on the eligibility and the reasons for exclusion of studies were documented on the data extraction form.

Study characteristics

The final sample for the systematic review included 15 studies, which were all published in the year 2020. Most of the studies were descriptive and qualitative in nature ( n = 12) and discussed the plight of the migrants and the various adversities encountered by them in India during the lockdown, while the others ( n = 3) were quantitative in nature that addressed in-depth the psychological issues faced by the migrants. All the articles were based on the Indian context, and most of the articles were pan Indian in their approach, while some articles ( n = 4) focused on conditions of migrants in their respective states or cities alone, specifically Chandigarh, Delhi, Bangalore and Kolkata. The articles discussed the various economic, social and psychological issues faced by the migrants. Some articles ( n = 8) also elaborated on the steps taken by the government and made suggestions about policies that can be adopted to better the lives of the migrants. Among this, some studies ( n = 3) also focused on making psychological interventions to help the migrants (Chander et al., 2020 ; Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c; Kumar et al., 2020 ).

The characteristics and main findings of these studies are summarised and presented in Table 1 .

Identification of the studies

In total, 15,697 studies were detected through database searching; among which 15 studies met the inclusion criteria and were further analysed for the present review. (The PRISMA flow diagram is shown in Fig. 1 ). Out of the 15,697 studies, 450 were from PsychNet, 14,988 were from PubMed, 229 from Scopus and 30 from Google Scholar. After the initial screening (which included the removal of duplicates), 106 articles were selected and assessed for eligibility, from which 91 studies were excluded and the final 15 were selected.

Stages involved in finalizing the articles for analysis after obtaining the data.

Distribution of migrants

Based on the data obtained in the Census 2011, it was found that the distribution of migrants to the total population across cities were, Delhi 43.1%, Mumbai, 54.9%, Kolkata 40.8%, Chennai 51.8%, Bangalore 52.3%, Hyderabad 64.3%, Ahmedabad 48.7% and Pune 64.8% (Census of India, 2011 ). As per the reports from a study, it was found that the highest number of COVID-19 cases as of 13 th April 2020 was reported in Delhi with 898 cases followed by Mumbai with 880. The share of COVID-19 cases from these metropolitan cities to the total percent was 38% (Bhagat et al., 2020 ).

Plight of migrants

All the studies focused on the various problems that the crisis has brought for the migrants, including the psychological and social issues. Out of the articles chosen for the current systematic review, the findings from a study (Kumar et al., 2020 ) on the psychological impact of the pandemic on the migrants ( n = 98), revealed that about 63.3% of participants underwent loneliness and around 48% of them felt that there was a decrease in their social connectedness. Also, they found that roughly 50% experienced fear of death, around 58.2% individuals experienced frustration and tension, about 51% felt irritable and anxious, and three fourth of the participants were diagnosed with depression.

Statistics obtained from studies also suggested that almost only 4% of the total population of the migrants received rations that were allotted by the government, and 29% did not receive rations despite having ration cards (Farooqui and Pandey, 2020 ). Almost 90% of the migrants either faced loss of pay or a reduction in their salary (Shahare, 2020 ). International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated a decline of 22.6% in the wages of migrant workers post lockdown (Gothoskar, 2021 ). A survey conducted across 179 districts in India from May 30, 2020 to July 16, 2020 found that around 35% of the migrants went without any meal the whole day (Pandit, 2020 ).

The findings from some articles focused on circular migration and its adverse consequences ( n = 5), while a few other articles reported the problems of discrimination faced by migrants belonging to the disadvantaged communities ( n = 2). Some articles also emphasised the financial crisis created by this pandemic ( n = 4), which was particularly acute for the migrants. All the studies shed light on the psychological issues faced by the migrants and among this, a few studies ( n = 3) also suggested interventions for the migrants (Chander et al., 2020 ; Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c; Kumar et al., 2020 ). Many studies ( n = 8) also pointed out the urgent need for revising the existing government-policies and taking new initiatives by the government for the betterment of the migrant workers.

Among the 15 studies, one study (Chander et al., 2020 ) reported visiting various spots across the city ( n = 140), contacting around 5048 migrants and offering assistance to nearly 3944 migrants. In another study under the District Mental Health Program, Chandigarh, many migrants ( n = 61) were attended to for their mental health issues and taken care of (Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c). In the same city, another study was carried out among migrants ( n = 98), which found that the majority of the participants were facing one or the other mental health issues and made interventions on a limited scale (Kumar et al., 2020 ).

One of the key elements and an integral factor contributing to development among the human civilisation is migration (Nanda, 2020 ). Migration happens at both individual and community levels, and occurs due to multiple reasons such as the lookout for better job opportunities, improved living conditions and for enhanced productivity and thereby greater income (Raj, 1981 ; Shahare, 2020 ). Migration takes place based on the various vital resources that are available in the ecosystem (Ram, 2020 ). The practice of migration has happened from time immemorial and can be traced from the beginning of humanity, as it first existed in the form of nomads who moved in groups from one place to another in the lookout for better resources, and later on as invasions by various rulers (Rolland, 2020 ).

Migration is regarded as a continuous process that is common to all living beings (Virupaksha, 2014 ). There are two major types of migration: one that takes place within a country across a district or a state-border, which is known as internal or national migration; and the other a migration that involves crossing international borders, which is referred to as external or international migration (Bhagat, 2020a ). Migrants associated with these types of migration are called in-migrants and out-migrants respectively (Sinha, 2005 ). Further, based on the place of origin and destination, migration can be classified into four categories: (i) rural–rural, (ii) rural–urban, (iii) urban–urban and (iv) urban–rural (Amin, 2018 ; Kishore and Kiran, 2013 ). The types of labour migration can be broadly classified as (i) Permanent, (ii) Commuting, and (iii) Circular (Haas and Osland, 2014 ). Permanent refers to the situation when the migrant does not intend to return to their native lands. Commuting refers to the regular movement between an individual’s home and work, which is characterised by the separation between the workplace and residence (Colla et al., 2017 ). Circular migration is a situation where the migrants do not stay in the migrated lands forever but instead go back to their native lands after some time, and then might move again to a different place (Gomathi, 2014 ).

In general, the migrants go to their destinations to fulfil their livelihood/career aspirations and/or to satisfy their basic requirements, but they return to their places of origin after a certain period to settle down, which is a “circular” process (Ghosh, 1985 ). “Hence circular migration is viewed as a cyclic journey of the migrants, which encompasses with their living pattern in two worlds i.e., urban insecure employment and stable homeland” (Nanda, 2020 ).

According to the National Sample Survey (NSS) and the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), the migrant labourers are mainly from rural areas and come from very poor backgrounds and belong to the lower social classes like the Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST) and Other Backward Classes (OBC) (Shahare, 2020 ). According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the inter-state migration in pursuit of an occupation every year around the world was estimated to be around 9 million, and this is acknowledged as “temporary, contingent and non-standard” in nature with minimal access to societal perks and labour privileges (Chander et al., 2020 , p.1). The administrative and socio-cultural barriers and the language differences in addition to geographical variance further hinder the process of migration (Aragona et al., 2020 ). The migrant workers are inclined to falling prey to adverse mental health impacts of various traumas created through interfaces of multiple factors such as, “abject poverty, malnutrition, cultural bereavement, loss of religious practices and social protection systems, malalignment with a new culture, coping with language difficulties, changes in identity, substance abuse, poor access to health-care, in addition to the poor living conditions and financial constraints”, as a result of migrating to a new state (Choudhari, 2020 , p. 5).

A large majority of the migrants are daily wagers who have low-income and poor living conditions that are dilapidated, unhygienic and scarce of basic amenities like clean water supply, and electricity (Kusuma et al., 2014 ). Most of the migrants are slum-dwellers with inadequate sanitation facilities and are forced to go for open defecation because of the lack of lavatories. As the migrants are not used to the food of the lands of their migration, many of them turn towards fast food centres, which deprives them of nutritious and healthy diets (Babu et al., 2017 ). The above-mentioned factors have made them susceptible to multiple physical and mental health problems (Chander et al., 2020 ). There are no government machinery, department, board or other direct administering body to address the grievances of these migrant workers; neither do they have any rights or privileges in the regions in which they work or in the villages to which they belong (Nirmala, 2020 ).

Upon the rise of the pandemic, the migrants were among the groups of victims who were acutely affected by the lockdown (Choudhari, 2020 ). These daily wagers are said to be the weakest and socially neglected community that forms the classic nobodies among Indian citizens (Shahare, 2020 ).

The migrants were trapped in their migrated lands, far away from their families and loved ones with minimal health-care facilities, poor living conditions, besides being devoid of a job and having no money or means to survive (Ram, 2020 ). The migrants are more likely to fall prey to various traumas emanating from all three domains- social, psychological, and emotional, which stem from the dread of being discriminated and ignored by the local community around them and the grave concerns that arise about the safety and comfort of their families in their native places (Kumar et al., 2020 ).

Circular migration, as a result of the pandemic, generated severe stress, tension, despair, addiction to substance use, and self-harm behaviour among the migrants. In addition, they had greater concerns that deeply affected them, such as, “uncertainty about the duration of the lockdown; desperate longing to travel and meet their families; fear of being abandoned/deserted by their employers; insecurity about job and income; acute distress that arose from their inability to look after the health issues of children and pregnant women” (Chander et al., 2020 , p. 2)

Desire to return to their homeland

Once the lockdown was implemented, the primary concern for most of the migrants was to return safely to their families. Being isolated from the families created more stress and tension among them and caused a lot of growing anxiety about the travel possibilities.

On 19th March 2020, the Indian Railways announced the sudden suspension of passenger trains and, as a consequence, there was a mass exodus of utterly terrified migrant workers. Thousands of migrant workers across Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) were seen carrying heavy baggage and wailing children walking on national highways, boarding tractors, and shoving each other around for seats in buses to leave for their homes. The government, upon understanding the problems of jobless migrants to access food and shelter, tried to reassure them by announcing an assistance by an extended scheme under the Prime Minister’s Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY). This offered relief packages to the migrants and daily wagers with the aim of blocking any disruptions to their employment besides supporting small establishments. However, this initiative was not satisfactory, because despite these efforts of the government, a huge number of migrants spent restless nights without food, asylum and/or travel facilities (Nanda, 2020 ). Failure in the implementation of the government’s assurance to provide basic necessities such as food and water forced thousands of migrant labourers to flock to the city’s bus terminals (Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c). However, not everyone could get on a bus and leave for their homelands (Ram, 2020 ).

Since most of the public transport was suspended as part of COVID-19 safety precautions, the migrants were stuck at their place of work and felt completely miserable (Chander et al., 2020 ). Even though they were aware of the risks involved in travelling back to their hometowns, both for them and their families, most of them desperately longed to get back home. They believed that it would be comforting to be with their loved ones during this time of uncertainty of impending death and was increasingly impatient to travel back home. They yearned to go back, so much so that they were even willing to put up with the discomforts of the travel quarantine norms imposed by the government (Chander et al., 2020 ).

From surveys conducted by NGOs like Stranded Workers Action Network (SWAN), it was found that due to scarcity of money and food, many of the migrants had very little to eat and some were even on the brink of starvation (Staff, 2020 ; Shahare, 2020 ). Most of these migrants suffered hunger pangs and police brutality and hundreds of people died tragically enroute to their homelands during the pandemic (Santoshini, 2020 ).

Fear of losing job

As much intense was the desire of the migrants to go back to their families, so were their worries about losing their jobs. Millions of migrant labourers employed across various sectors like construction, agriculture, manufacturing, transport and other services were stuck in their migrant locations during the lockdown. Even those migrant labourers who did not lose their jobs, as they were employed in essential services, had to suffer from wage-cuts imposed by their employers. They were therefore worried over how they would meet their regular expenses like those on food, clothing, medicines and accommodation. For those who were away from their worksite for several days together, there was absolutely no job security, and this led to a mounting panic in them. On the other hand, those who lost their jobs had the additional worries about whether and how they could return to their hometowns. Owing to the prevailing travel restrictions and the non-availability of transport facilities, there was no certainty about whether and when they would be able to travel back. The dread of being forsaken by their employers and the creeping fear of being abandoned with no job, wages or place to stay was indeed a traumatic experience for them (Chander et al., 2020 ).

Financial distress

As per the certified employment valuation, Indian industries have millions of internal migrant staff who make significant contributions to the economy of India. (Deshingkar and Akter, 2009 ; Choudhari, 2020 ). Although India’s economic growth is dependent to a great extent on the cheap labour of such migrants who work for even less than the minimum wages, they remained unrewarded and obscure in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), and were excluded from relief funds during the COVID-19 crisis (Shahare, 2020 ).

The International Labour Organization (2020) has observed that migrant labourers are the worst-hit by the current economic crisis. The costs of basic hygienic products necessary for individual security during the pandemic (such as detergents, soaps, sanitisers) have become prohibitively expensive and unaffordable for the migrants, because they were thrown out of their jobs and had no other sources of income (Srivastava, 2020 ). Many employers have either fired the migrant workers without any prior notice or have stopped paying them salaries. The financial crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted severe difficulties for the lower income families in meeting the costs of food, clothing and medicines (Mishra and Sayeed, 2020 ). Adding to the financial woes of the migrants, the NITI Aayog (a public policy think-tank of the Government of India) reduced food subsidies from 75 to 60% in rural areas and from 50 to 40% in urban areas (Gothoskar, 2021 ). Studies done on earlier recessions (Kumar et al., 2020 ) have pointed out that the work-loss during an economic crisis often leads to “longstanding unemployment and wage impediments, deteriorating or worsening the health of unemployed workers and thereby increasing poverty” (Khanna, 2020 , p. 3–4).

Quality of the relief camps

Not all migrants could travel back to their homelands before the lockdown. All those who were left behind were allotted food and accommodation by the government (Singh et al., 2020 ). Numerous labourers had to remain in extremely tiny and congested rooms with nearly nothing to live on. Seven to eight individuals were confined in a tiny room with practically no ventilation, and no appropriate space to cook food (Shahare, 2020 ).

In majority of the relief camps there were no essential facilities such as power, light, fan, latrines and water, and most of them were absolutely packed, and the old occupants were not permitting new ones to come in. Consequently, there were a lot of fights, maltreatments and bullying among the migrant groups (Shahare, 2020 ).

The anxiety of catching the disease, as described in the words of a Dalit migrant as a personal experience account was such, “that we were scared that we might get infected with the virus because there was a COVID-19 positive patient in my neighbouring street … we did not want to stay anymore in Mumbai because we were anxious of getting the infection through using the public toilet or sharing food because we lived in a slum and we don’t have separate toilet and housing; thus we decided that now we shall return to our village” (Pankaj, 2020 , p. 5). Although the government had allotted food and shelter for the migrants, it was found that in most of the shelter homes and relief camps people did not receive sufficient quantity and quality food on time. They had to wait for three to four hours in long queues since morning for their meals. Thousands of calls related to scarcity of food were made to the police from these camps on a daily basis (Shahare, 2020 ).

Shortages in the allotted rations

The report by SWAN that was released on 15th April 2020, stated that, “only 51%, of who were surveyed, had rations left for less than one day” (Farooqui and Pandey, 2020 ). It further observed that, “two weeks into the lockdown, only 1% of the stranded workers had received rations from the government, and three weeks into the lockdown, 96% of the migrants had not received rations from the government at all, 70% had not received any cooked food, 78% had less than Rs.300 left with them and 89% had not been paid by their employers at all during the lockdown” (Shahare, 2020 , p. 6). The distribution of rations was on the basis of the person possessing a ration card, but most of the migrants did not have a permanent residence or necessary legal documents, and therefore were unable to get a ration card.

This distribution system became faulty due to the lack of an inter-state portable ration cards acceptable in all states. The impact of this problem has got aggravated, as a large section of the migrants neither have a valid ID proof nor have been registered under any special schemes set up for them. Although the government has enacted the Inter-State Migrant Workmen Act, 1979 to facilitate the lives and work of migrant labourers, it has remained ineffective due to poor implementation, as per the reports of the Standing Committee on Labour (PRS India, 2020).

An article in The New Indian Express , published on 29 March 2020, reported that about 200 migrant workers belonging to the Soliga tribe were stranded at coffee estates in a village of Kodagu (formerly known as Coorg) district in the Indian state of Karnataka and were running out of food and were living in awful conditions (Chakma, 2020 ). On the publication of this article, the government of Karnataka reached out to them and distributed rations of rice and pluses and other necessary food products like eggs, ghee and edible oil to the tribal families (Chakma, 2020 ).

The Delhi Government has developed shelter homes, quarantine homes and relief camps for the migrants and are taking care of about 600,000 individuals, besides providing food to more than 2.2 million migrants under their Free Ration Scheme, facilitated by the One Nation One Ration Card Scheme of the Government of India. Despite this, millions of migrants are still excluded from these schemes and have not received any help from the Government (Mukhra, 2020 ).

Insufficient health-care facilities

The migrant population including mothers, children, and pregnant women, were deeply apprehensive about their well-being, and had serious concerns about their health inside the shelter homes. This group at large was already predisposed to communicable diseases due to their malnutrition, socio-economic status, occupational hazards, and the poor living conditions (Choudhari, 2020 ). The deplorable conditions in the relief camps prevented them from following any basic safety precautions like practising social distancing, regular washing of hands, use of sanitiser and masks, that each individual was required to do as part of the standard procedure for fighting COVID-19. Unfortunately, practising these measures was extremely difficult or impossible in their crowded and ill-equipped camp-accommodations, and this has put the group at great risk of contracting the disease (Andrade, 2020 ; Chander et al., 2020 ). Even the symptoms of common cold, such as “fever, cough and throat pain” among the people were feared as Covid-infections, which threw everyone into a panic and caused a lot of bitter resentment amongst those living in the community (Chander et al., 2020 ).

Hardships of women in the camps

Female migrant workers confronted daunting challenges while living along with unknown men in these shelter homes. One major problem was in using the common toilets with them, which was highly unhygienic and likely to cause infections under the prevailing pandemic conditions. There was no privacy or protection available for the women during day or night. The plight of pregnant women was particularly miserable as they were greatly inconvenienced in these camps and shelter-homes. There were no facilities for regular medical check-up by doctors or for taking scans or conducting the necessary tests.

It was found in one of the surveys that nearly 42% of the pregnant migrant women did not receive any medical check-ups during the lockdown (Pandit, 2020 ). All these were highly disconcerting for the women who were forced to live in these camps (Shahare, 2020 ).

Withdrawal symptoms

Majority of the migrants use one or the other type of substances such as tobacco or alcohol. Therefore, the non-availability of these products during the lockdown has led to severe withdrawal symptoms in many of them. In a study conducted in Bangalore (Chander et al., 2020 ) a few migrants spoke out that they all have become “sober” due to non-availability of alcohol and other substances. Some of them even spoke about their withdrawal issues, which caused a lot of frustration in them and resulted in relationship problems, domestic violence, and psychiatric illnesses. Heavier alcohol usage and criminal sexual behaviour have been reported in communities of predominantly single men compared to those living with their families.

Psychological issues

The poor living conditions of the migrants the shortages for the basic necessities have caused severe mental stress to many of them, which got manifested in their lives in the form of relationship problems, substance abuse, alcoholism, sexual exploitation, domestic violence, and psychiatric illnesses (NACP III, 2007 ; Kumar et al., 2020 ). Adding further to the burden of the awful shock wave of physical distress caused by the pandemic, there was a gigantic wave of psychological issues among migrant labourers, with deaths due to suicides as its lead sign (Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c). Suicidal tendencies were provoked among the migrants, as they lived constantly under severe financial worries, loneliness, anxiety, fear, and feelings of hopelessness and isolation (Choudhari, 2020 ). The constant fear of an impending doom of a completely dark future has further intensified their psychological distress and discomfort.

With the imposition of the lockdown, not all were able to go back to their homelands. Instead, they were stranded in the migrant lands with no income but only uncertainty about travelling back home, which made them mentally disturbed and agitated (Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c). As all the workplaces were shut down, there was an increasing panic about whether and when they would be reopened. Even if the workplaces are reopened, there was no guarantee that all the former employees would be hired back. There was a lingering fear in the minds of these displaced workers that the recession in the aftermath of the pandemic would result in large scale firing of employees. This fear and distress accompanied the migrants who travelled to their native lands and at the same time restrained some of them from going back to their native lands (Nanda, 2020 ).

The living conditions of the migrants also induced distress and concern as they were heavily crammed up and unhygienic, which was the complete opposite of an ideal place to be in during the pandemic. The fear and agony of living in such harsh conditions and the lingering uncertainty about the future gave rise to many psychiatric issues among them, such as anxiety disorders and substance abuse. In a study on migrants, it was found that there is increased risk for the manifestation of schizophrenia and related non affective psychosis among first- and second-generation migrants (Henssler et al., 2019 ). As most of the migrants belonged to the socio-economically backward classes, they are subjected to much inequity and prejudice from the people in the migrant lands, and were never able to fit in with the new surroundings. Studies from the clinical psychology perspective have found that experiencing discrimination and social exclusion has led to increased rates of psychotic experiences among migrants (Mishra and Sayeed, 2020 ).

In most of the cases of the migrants, the absence of a caretaker or a family member with them has caused an unceasing feeling of loneliness and frustration (Zhou et al., 2020 ). There was also a continuous feeling of helplessness caused by their inability to meet the livelihood and health requirements of their families, living away in their homelands. This has greatly deepened their agony of being stuck far away from home (Choudhari, 2020 ).

Apart from causing harmful effects on the body, the virus has the ability to inflict longstanding psychological disorders such as “depression, anxiety, panic disorder, and psychosomatic manifestations” (Qiu et al., 2020 , p. 2). There were several reported attempts of self-harm and suicides by the migrants (Singh, 2020a , 2020b , 2020 c). The pathetic situation they are in and the ambiguity about the extent of the crisis created a panic response among the migrants and made them act out frantically. The nagging anxiety levels that were mounting among the masses day by day led them to set out on their travel on foot for several hundred miles in order to reach their destinations, their homelands, with no facility of food or shelter during the journey (Choudhari, 2020 ).

Although the mental-distress cases were escalating, it was noticed that there was a drastic decline in the number of patients (both new and follow up cases) visiting the psychiatric outpatient services after the lockdown. Apparently, the reluctance to visit the clinics was out of the fear of contracting the virus. However, the danger of ignoring any psychological treatment at a time when they are estimated to be rising holds the possibilities of adverse effects on the efficacy of treatment. In addition, the considerable decline in follow-up visits also paves way to the threat of relapse (Aragona et al., 2020 ).

Racial discrimination of the North Eastern migrants

It was reported by the Rights and Risks Analysis Group (RRAG) on 26 March 2020, that, during the time-period from 7th February 2020 to 25 th March 2020, there were twenty-two incidents (in different parts of the country) of racial discrimination and assaults against individuals from the North East (Chakma, 2020 ). They were called names such as “Corona”, “Chinese”, and “Chinki”, and were glared at, along with shouting of expletives. India’s mongoloid looking citizens were subjected to insults while they were strolling on the roads, doing their shopping or travelling in trains and buses. They were called “Covid”, and coercively isolated, even though they had negative COVID-19 certificates. They were denied entry into public places, and were driven out of eateries and shared transports.

Psychosocial issues

The high levels of anxiety and stress induced among the general public by the lockdown during this pandemic was felt more intensely among the migrants, leading to many more psychosocial issues among them. The stress generated in the migrants made them behave in socially unacceptable ways and caused panic attacks on them. Consequently, they started fleeing hastily from the migrant lands. In order to go back to their home states at the earliest, they started crowding at the local bus stands and railway stations in desperation, ignoring all lockdown rules. This reckless behaviour of violating the norms of preventive measures resulted in the perpetual vicious cycle of being exposed to infection, quarantine, distress and hostilities (Choudhari, 2020 ). Although the most pressing need for all migrants at that time was the immediate return to their homelands from the migrant lands, the reverse migration came with a lot of appalling hardships and several other related problems (Tandon, 2020 ; Wong et al., 2019 ; Chakma, 2020 ).

Issues of reverse migration

Owing to circular migration or reverse migration, there was an acute shortage of workers in the urban areas from where the migrant workers had left for their homelands (Srivastava, 2020 ). This shortage, combined with the new relaxed laws in both occupational and industrial health, compelled the available local workers to work for longer durations than what was actually expected of them, which was in fact against the Factories Act of 1948 (Rivera et al., 2020 ; Wong et al., 2019 ). As a result, there was a drastic decline in the resting hours of the workers, which in turn led to the rise in stress and burnout among them and made them more prone to mental health issues (Choudhari, 2020 ).

The phenomenon of reverse migration has a bigger effect on the indigenous communities in the migrant lands as well. Reverse migration can mop out endangered indigenous Indian communities’ inhabitants and eternally ruin the subsistence of several such communities. As there were millions of people belonging to outside communities, such as those from the North East, have migrated to the urban cities in search of work in unorganised sectors, the lockdown induced re-migration would adversely affect the urban economies for want of labourers, as well as lead to the destruction of the economy of the migrants’ homelands because of the loss of jobs and income for those families and the resultant food and hunger crisis (Chakma, 2020 ).

The problems of the migrants did not cease to exist even after their reverse migration to their homelands. On reaching back to their homelands, their problems were mainly about staying in quarantine and the difficulties associated with it (Mishra and Sayeed, 2020 ).

Issues with quarantine after reverse migration

As part of the travel protocol prescribed for the pandemic-times, all migrants going back to their homelands were expected to be tested for COVID-19 and were expected to stay in self-isolation or quarantine at their homeland-residences for a minimum of fourteen days. Most of the migrants come from poor backgrounds with only a single room in their houses. Under this situation, they had to spend their quarantine period outside their houses. It was reported that in the Purulia district of West Bengal, some migrants spent their quarantine period outside the village limits by sleeping under trees, inside trucks or buses, or in make-shift shelters (Chakma, 2020 ). Similarly, in the Siwan area of Bihar, the labourers who managed to arrive at their hometowns were placed in extremely small spaces behind an iron gate in an infectious condition. To their good fortune, they were rescued from there on the following day and were transported in trucks to the isolation centres of their respective panchayats (Mishra and Sayeed, 2020 ).

Since the panchayat-shelters were also makeshift arrangements, there were very few protective measures provided to the residents. As the migrants were crowded in these shelters in high concentration, there was a significant risk of infection. In most places, the migrant labourers were stuck in these makeshift camps for many days, with poor infrastructure and inadequate food supply (Mishra and Sayeed, 2020 ).

Since the imposition of the lockdown, the media has featured several stories of the pathetic situation of the migrant labourers in various parts of the country. In the Bareli district of Uttar Pradesh, many migrants including women and children were forcefully pushed to clean themselves up in chemical baths as a sanitisation measure (Sammadar, 2020 ).

In general, the overall condition of the migrants was inexpressibly pathetic. Their worries and adversities did not come to an end. From being stuck in the lockdown in migrant lands to going through the difficulties of reverse migration and the struggles of survival, battling through quarantine and financial crisis during the pandemic-time was a fierce combat they had to wage while trying to stay alive and safe from the risk of starvation and infection.

This paper is an attempt to assess (based on published research papers) the plight of the migrants during the Covid crisis, in terms of their economic, social and health conditions. It brought into limelight the adversities, vulnerabilities, as well as the physical and psychological distresses and discriminations faced by the migrants under the onslaught of this pandemic in the Indian context, along with the problems of the resultant circular migration. From the survey of the 15 selected studies, it was clear that most of the problems faced by the migrants were due to them having been stranded in the migrated lands due to the lockdown. They were stuck in relief camps that had poor living conditions, with no job or income and, therefore, no means to travel back to their homelands. They became vulnerable to many physical and psychological illnesses, and received hardly any medical care from the government. In addition to suffering from the lack of basic physical facilities and the scarcity in the allocated resources, they also faced social issues such as discrimination and attacks from the local people.

Owing to the unpredictable nature of the pandemic and the uncertain turns it was taking with the passage of time, there was no end in sight for the crisis, and so the migrants couldn’t expect any relief from this tragic situation they were locked down in. The government launched several initiatives for the welfare of the migrants. One of them is the “The Aatma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan”, through which they distributed free food grains for migrant workers without ration cards for a period of 2 months. Another government program was the “Affordable Rental Housing Complexes for Migrant Workers and Urban Poor”, which provided affordable rental housing units under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PRSIndia, 2020 ). Although there were many such initiatives by the government, most of them were poorly implemented, and therefore, they became non-functional and failed to reach the entire migrant population.

Through the present study, the authors conclude that, based on the evaluation of the factors affecting the migrants, it is necessary to adopt immediate interventions for the welfare of the migrants.

Recommendations

One of the most pressing needs of the migrants is to have access to health services, which are equitable, non-discriminatory, and appropriate according to age and gender. In order to ensure maximum effectiveness, these measures must be people-centred and migrant sensitive, so as to deliver services that are culturally and linguistically appropriate because migrants are different from the people in the migrated lands, as they are subjected to different kinds of distress and exploitation.

Additionally, addressing and improving the mental health of the migrants are extremely necessary. Providing regular facilities such as in-person counselling, tele-counselling, therapies and psychosocial services is a necessity. In addition to this, systematic assessments must be conducted for early detection of and early interventions for any mental disorders among the migrants. Forming a strong ethical alliance between the local population, health systems, local government, and human rights associations to ensure the welfare of these migrants is also necessary. Furthermore, it is vitally important to prevent the spread of any fake news about the virus and to convey evidence-based accurate information to the public.

A major issue that calls for special attention is the well-being of women and children among the migrants. Women should be provided adequate services for maintaining reproductive health, maternal health, postnatal care, paediatric care and preventive/remedial measures for dealing with domestic or sexual abuse. These services must be focused on risk assessment and treatment for improving their health conditions and must not be used to screen out their health issues; nor should they be used as a tool for discrimination or for enforcing any restrictions. The migrant community must also be given priority for vaccination by the local administrations because of their particular vulnerability to the virus-infection. Furthermore, since the major cause for their health issues is the deplorable living conditions of the relief camps, the respective state governments should take the necessary steps to improve the living conditions in all relief camps.

It is essential to monitor health-care practices of the migrants and generate a repository of relevant health-care information during the pandemic period, which can be used to support future studies on the health issues of migrants during any Covid-like pandemics. Moreover, this will also facilitate sharing of health-related information between states, so as to facilitate the implementation of effective treatment strategies for migrants from various places.

A major social issue among the migrants is their fear of losing their jobs, income and housing. On these matters also it is the governments that can help, as they can take unbiased actions in case of any exploitation or labour complaints regarding their right to stay and work. It will also be of help if assistance is provided to the migrants to form associations and cooperative societies to support the livelihood of those who have returned to their native lands.

In view of the need to effectively manage the health issues of the migrants, it is necessary to give special attention to the migrants’ housing facilities, as their present unhygienic living conditions are a breeding ground for innumerable diseases. Government initiatives like The Aatma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan, must be properly implemented. Similarly, NGOs and aid agencies should be persuaded to raise funds to construct affordable housing units, which should be made available to migrants for minimal rents (PRSIndia, 2020 ). For migrants who are not able to afford even these minimum-rental houses, the relief camps must be kept open with better facilities for a longer period.

Another social issue as explained in the SWAN report is the irregular and uneven distribution of basic necessities among the migrants (Shahare, 2020 ). Hence, there is a need for a universal and uniform mechanism for the distribution of both financial aid and essential items such as grains, medicines, and water to the migrant families. In order to ensure efficient distribution of financial aid and basic necessities among the migrants, it will be a good idea to entrust this work to the respective “panchayats” (the Indian local administrative councils operating at the village, block and district levels) to register and enrol these migrants and distribute these resources to them as per their eligibilities. Since they are already facing severe financial difficulties, subsidies must be increased as opposed to initiatives like NITI Aayog (Gothoskar, 2021 ).

A major political issue faced by the migrants is the absence of a body or agency to represent them in the respective state governments of the migrated lands. Since the migrants are only entitled to vote in their home constituency, and not in their migrated states, their political clout is limited and therefore their voices are rarely heard (Deshingkar and Akter, 2009 ). In order to present their demands and concerns to the governmental agencies, they have to be a part of a legitimate political system, which is authorised to represent them in these migrated lands.

There is an immediate need to push for a pro-migrant attitude in the general society, a better acknowledgement of the contribution of the migrants to the society, and the adoption of a proactive role in educating them and safeguarding their labour rights. This study further emphasises the urgent need to revise the national migration policies, which should help assist and protect the migrants and the returnee migrants who are either travelling from or to the areas affected by the pandemic.

Limitations

One of the main limitations of the reviewed studies was the inability to make any alterations with the brief interactive interventions with the migrants as their distress levels were much higher. These studies were restricted due to being retrospective single-centre studies and so generalising these findings across all services are difficult.

This review limited its focus to migrant workers alone and passed over the similar issues faced by the emigrants who have returned to the country post lockdown and also on the immigrants who were stuck in the country due to the lockdown rules and regulations. These two groups also have undergone trauma along the same lines as the migrant workers group and, therefore, future studies focusing on these are highly relevant and in need.

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study were derived from the databases (PubMed, Scopus, PsychNet, and Google Scholar) available in the public domain.

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Jesline, J., Romate, J., Rajkumar, E. et al. The plight of migrants during COVID-19 and the impact of circular migration in India: a systematic review. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 8 , 231 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00915-6

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Post COVID-19 world

April 4, 2020

UPSC Articles

INTERNATIONAL

Topic: General Studies 2: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

With COVID-19 pandemic spreading to nearly 180 countries and impacting the global economy by bringing it to near standstill, the world order post the crisis could see few changes.

Let us have a look at them.

Increasing political and policy uncertainties where Nations start erecting barriers
US power would shift from one of assertion to neutrality in global affairs.
Acceleration of retreat of US global leadership (reflected in US-Taliban deal )
Russia dominance will increase as it is currently more economically and politically stable and an important power broker in West Asia
Asymmetric capabilities of China and Russia will be further strengthened
Strengthening of China and Russia axis –will have direct impact on the liberal international order
Increasing influence of China & Russia will be a boost to authoritarian regimes and authoritarian trends.
China would cease to be the world’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods
With no country in a position to replace China, situation will precipitate a further economic downturn internationally.
A global recession would be inevitable with vicious downward cycle of decreased demand, closure of firms and reduced income
Industries will face newer challenges such as having to adjust to a shift from cost efficiencies to innovation and policy uncertainties
Psychological issues caused due to extended lockdown – ‘epidemic of despair’ – resulting in anxiety, mental problems, depression, alcoholism and suicides
Inequality further entrenches – those without high levels of skills could see job losses due to depressed economic activity & increased labour competition
Digital authoritarianism – China’s model of AI-powered facial recognition surveillance system could be duplicated in other countries for social management
Artificial Intelligence (AI) can cause the next big human catastrophe

Do You Know?

In terms of GDP in PPP , China is the largest economy with GDP of $25.27 trillion (2019) in comparison to U.S. GDP (PPP) at $21.44 trillion
The cost of the lockdown in India is pegged at around $120 billion or 4% of GDP
CII has estimated that India would require up to six months – after the COVID-19 epidemic is over – to restore normalcy and business continuity.

Connecting the dots:

Multilateralism post COVID-19 pandemic
Article 360 of Indian Constitution – Provisions and Utility

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Indian Real Estate Market Witnesses Robust Growth Post-COVID: Survey Reveals Consumer Sentiments

T he Indian real estate sector has shown remarkable resilience and growth post the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent survey conducted by Shree Katariya & Associates (SKAA). The survey, titled "Consumer Outlook on Indian Real Estate Market - Post Covid-19 Growth Analysis," aimed to understand the evolving preferences and sentiments of home buyers in the wake of the pandemic-induced changes.

Positive Growth Trends

Despite global economic uncertainties, the Indian real estate market has reached an all-time high in 2023, with over 2.82 lakh units sold. Forecasts predict sustained momentum with expected year-on-year growth of 10-15%, projecting sales to exceed 3,00,000 units in the coming year.

Several factors contribute to this resilience, including government initiatives, stable economic indicators, and infrastructure projects like the Smart City initiative. Low unemployment rates, favourable inflation rates, and substantial salary hikes further bolster the market outlook.

Changing Consumer Preferences

The survey reveals significant shifts in buyers' preferences and budget allocations post-COVID-19. There is a growing demand for larger homes and dedicated office spaces, reflecting the changing dynamics of remote work culture. Homeownership is increasingly seen as a tangible asset in investment portfolios.

Investment Preferences

Real estate emerges as the preferred asset class for investment in 2024, with 58% of respondents expressing their preference for property. This sentiment is driven by the perceived significance of homeownership and the potential for high returns on investment.

While stock and mutual funds garner 26% of the vote, gold and fixed deposits lag behind at 12% and 4% respectively.

Optimistic Market Outlook

A vast majority of respondents (71%) view the current period as an ideal opportunity to buy property, citing the significance of homeownership during the pandemic and the promise of better returns on investment. Only a small fraction (2%) hesitates due to increased property prices and personal circumstances.

Expectations on Property Prices

The survey indicates widespread optimism regarding property prices, with 87% of respondents expecting further growth. While 69% anticipate a steady increase, while 18% believe they’ll go up, but not as fast as post Covid-19.

Preferred Property Types and Budgets

Residential plots emerge as the top choice for 41% of respondents, followed by villas/row houses (27%) and flats/apartments (24%). Affordability remains a key consideration, with 78% of property seekers expressing a preference for properties within a budget of ₹50 lakhs.

End Users vs. Investors

While 53% of respondents purchase property for end-use, 47% are investors, indicating a balanced market dynamic. Surprisingly, 67% of investors come from the salaried class, showcasing a shift in investment behaviour towards long-term property ownership.

Preference for Ready-to-Move Properties

Over 42% of respondents prioritize ready-to-move-in properties to avoid delays and enjoy immediate occupancy. However, as the pandemic recedes, Millennials and Gen X are increasingly shifting towards properties at earlier stages, indicating a transition from end-users to investors.

Challenges and Opportunities

Key challenges delaying purchase decisions include lack of funds, limited understanding of financing options, exploring other options, and personal circumstances. However, there is optimism as 37% of respondents are ready to buy if they find the right deal.

The survey by SKAA provides invaluable insights into the evolving landscape of the Indian real estate market. Despite challenges, the sector continues to thrive, driven by changing consumer preferences, optimistic market outlook, and investment opportunities. Armed with these insights, stakeholders can navigate the dynamic market with confidence and strategic foresight.

About Shree Katariya & Associates

Shree Katariya & Associates (SKAA) is a leading real estate marketing company based in Indore, renowned for its exceptional growth and customer-centric approach. With over 14 years of experience, 6+ projects, and a portfolio of 1500+ units, SKAA embodies transparency, compliance, and excellence in every transaction. Leveraging world-class technology and a dedicated team of professionals, SKAA ensures an unparalleled experience for both buyers and developers, shaping the future of Indian real estate.

In conclusion, the post-COVID Indian real estate market stands as a testament to resilience, adaptability, and unwavering consumer confidence. As stakeholders embark on their real estate journey, armed with insights from Shree Katariya & Associates' Consumer Sentiment Survey, they pave the way for a future defined by growth, prosperity, and enduring success.

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Company Name: Shree Katariya & Associates

E-Mail: [email protected]

Website: www.ShreeKatariya.com

Download Full Research Report 2024: https://shreekatariya.com/research-reports/

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Indian Real Estate Market Witnesses Robust Growth Post-COVID: Survey Reveals Consumer Sentiments

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There’s a New Covid Variant. What Will That Mean for Spring and Summer?

Experts are closely watching KP.2, now the leading variant.

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A man wearing a mask coughs into his hand on a subway train.

By Dani Blum

For most of this year, the JN.1 variant of the coronavirus accounted for an overwhelming majority of Covid cases . But now, an offshoot variant called KP.2 is taking off. The variant, which made up just one percent of cases in the United States in mid-March, now makes up over a quarter.

KP.2 belongs to a subset of Covid variants that scientists have cheekily nicknamed “FLiRT,” drawn from the letters in the names of their mutations. They are descendants of JN.1, and KP.2 is “very, very close” to JN.1, said Dr. David Ho, a virologist at Columbia University. But Dr. Ho has conducted early lab tests in cells that suggest that slight differences in KP.2’s spike protein might make it better at evading our immune defenses and slightly more infectious than JN.1.

While cases currently don’t appear to be on the rise, researchers and physicians are closely watching whether the variant will drive a summer surge.

“I don’t think anybody’s expecting things to change abruptly, necessarily,” said Dr. Marc Sala, co-director of the Northwestern Medicine Comprehensive Covid-19 Center in Chicago. But KP.2 will most likely “be our new norm,’” he said. Here’s what to know.

The current spread of Covid

Experts said it would take several weeks to see whether KP.2 might lead to a rise in Covid cases, and noted that we have only a limited understanding of how the virus is spreading. Since the public health emergency ended , there is less robust data available on cases, and doctors said fewer people were using Covid tests.

But what we do know is reassuring: Despite the shift in variants, data from the C.D.C. suggests there are only “minimal ” levels of the virus circulating in wastewater nationally, and emergency department visits and hospitalizations fell between early March and late April.

“I don’t want to say that we already know everything about KP.2,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, the chief of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Healthcare System. “But at this time, I’m not seeing any major indications of anything ominous.”

Protection from vaccines and past infections

Experts said that even if you had JN.1, you may still get reinfected with KP.2 — particularly if it’s been several months or longer since your last bout of Covid.

KP.2 could infect even people who got the most updated vaccine, Dr. Ho said, since that shot targets XBB.1.5, a variant that is notably different from JN.1 and its descendants. An early version of a paper released in April by researchers in Japan suggested that KP.2 might be more adept than JN.1 at infecting people who received the most recent Covid vaccine. (The research has not yet been peer-reviewed or published.) A spokesperson for the C.D.C. said the agency was continuing to monitor how vaccines perform against KP.2.

Still, the shot does provide some protection, especially against severe disease, doctors said, as do previous infections. At this point, there isn’t reason to believe that KP.2 would cause more severe illness than other strains, the C.D.C. spokesperson said. But people who are 65 and older, pregnant or immunocompromised remain at higher risk of serious complications from Covid.

Those groups, in particular, may want to get the updated vaccine if they haven’t yet, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. The C.D.C. has recommended t hat people 65 and older who already received one dose of the updated vaccine get an additional shot at least four months later.

“Even though it’s the lowest level of deaths and hospitalizations we’ve seen, I’m still taking care of sick people with Covid,” he said. “And they all have one unifying theme, which is that they’re older and they didn’t get the latest shot.”

The latest on symptoms and long Covid

Doctors said that the symptoms of both KP.2 and JN.1 — which now makes up around 16 percent of cases — are most likely similar to those seen with other variants . These include sore throat, runny nose, coughing, head and body aches, fever, congestion, fatigue and in severe cases, shortness of breath. Fewer people lose their sense of taste and smell now than did at the start of the pandemic, but some people will still experience those symptoms.

Dr. Chin-Hong said that patients were often surprised that diarrhea, nausea and vomiting could be Covid symptoms as well, and that they sometimes confused those issues as signs that they had norovirus .

For many people who’ve already had Covid, a reinfection is often as mild or milder than their first case. While new cases of long Covid are less common now than they were at the start of the pandemic, repeat infections do raise the risk of developing long Covid, said Fikadu Tafesse, a virologist at Oregon Health & Science University. But researchers are still trying to determine by how much — one of many issues scientists are trying to untangle as the pandemic continues to evolve.

“That’s the nature of the virus,” Dr. Tafesse said. “It keeps mutating.”

Dani Blum is a health reporter for The Times. More about Dani Blum

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Depression, Anxiety and Stress Among Indians in Times of Covid-19 Lockdown

Usama rehman.

1 Department of Psychology, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India

Mohammad G. Shahnawaz

2 Department of Psychology, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India

Neda H. Khan

Korsi d. kharshiing, masrat khursheed, kaveri gupta, drishti kashyap, ritika uniyal.

Covid-19 has caused significant distress around the globe. Apart from the evident physical symptoms in infected cases, it has caused serious damage to public mental health. India, like other countries, implemented a nationwide lockdown to contain and curb the transmission of the virus. The current research is an attempt to explore psychological distress among people residing in India during the lockdown. Four hundred and three participants were asked to complete a questionnaire with questions around symptoms of depression, anxiety, stress, and family affluence. The results indicated that people who do not have enough supplies to sustain the lockdown were most affected, and family affluence was found to be negatively correlated with stress, anxiety, and depression. Among different professions, students and healthcare professionals were found to experience stress, anxiety, and depression more than others. Despite the current situation, stress, anxiety, and depression were found to be in normal ranges for mental health professionals highlighting their capabilities to remain normal in times of distress. Policymakers and other authorities may take the assistance of mental health professionals to help overcome psychological issues related to Covid-19.

Introduction

Covid-19, commonly known as the novel Coronavirus is believed to have originated from a wet market in Wuhan, China, and has spread all over the world, resulting in a large number of hospitalizations and deaths (Wang et al. 2020 ). As of April 18, there were approximately 23,00,000 cases reported from across the globe (Worldometers 2020 ). Presently, with no medicine or vaccine available for Covid-19 (Sanders et al. 2020 ) the situation has turned worrisome. More than a third of the world’s population has been put under lockdown with restricted movements to contain the widespread of the virus (Kaplan et al. 2020 ). People have been strictly advised to maintain social distance, wear a mask, and sanitize their hands frequently (Cheng et al. 2020 ). India is no different from rest of the world, when it comes to the lockdown (Sahu et al. 2020 ). For Indians, challenges in the medical sector, further deepens the worries (Chetterje 2020 ) that heighten psychological distress.

In times of an epidemic, people tend to experience fear of getting infected with the virus/disease resulting in anxiety, stress, and depression, etc. (Hall et al. 2008 ). Stress can be explained as a feeling of emotional and physical tension which arises from any event that threatens our homeostasis (Selye 1956 ). On the other hand, the fear of the unknown is termed as anxiety, that is the body’s natural response to stress (Holland 2018 ). Depression is viewed as a state of disinterest in daily activities. It is surmised that people facing a pandemic with no vaccination would result in fear of the unknown (in this case, the coronavirus) making them anxious, stressed and depressed. Keeping in mind the concerns regarding psychological distress raised around the globe, Xiang et al. ( 2020 ) have argued for a timely action on mental health during the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the World Heath Organization (WHO 2020 ) has also issued public interest guidelines to address psychological issues that may arise. What is alarming is the heightened fear related to the coronavirus culminating in people committing suicides (Goyal et al. 2020 ; Mamun and Griffiths 2020 ). A study by Wang et al. ( 2020 ) reported severe psychological distress (anxiety, stress, and depression) during Covid-19 among Chinese nationals. Similarly, another research on Chinese nationals found psychological distress such as stress, anxiety, and depression quite common and hence, alarming (Qiu et al. 2020 ). Evidently, people’s mental health was badly affected during pandemics such as SARS. For example, Leung et al. ( 2003 ) found that his respondents reported experiencing anxiety during SARS. Moreover, stress, depression, and anxiety were also found to be common among people during SARS (McAlonan et al. 2007 ), however, these were significantly higher for the high-risk population such as health workers. In yet another research, Hawryluck et al. ( 2004 ) found that people who were quarantined during SARS reported a high level of psychological distress. Clearly, being social is a human tendency that facilitates social interaction, and thus, when our movements are curtailed, psychological distress results (Usher et al. 2020 ). Van Bortel et al. ( 2016 ), and Kumar and Nayar ( 2020 ) have suggested that issues of mental health should be considered and also addressed as anxiety, stress, fear, trauma, helplessness and other psychological issues are experienced during a pandemic.

It appears that in India, the present lockdown affects people differently with regards to their sex, profession, socioeconomic status or their residing place, etc. For instance, a person who is with his family with all the necessities (daily needs) may not be as distressed as someone who does not have the same. Furthermore, frontline workers (such as health professionals) would be more distressed than some other professionals (such as software engineers). Essentially, for Dandekar and Ghai ( 2020 ), the impact of lockdown would also be influenced by the resources people have as witnessed in the migration of people. The plight of migrants is disturbing and has attracted the attention of the world (Ellis-Petersen and Rahman 2020 ). Reports of people emptying supermarkets and panic buying is indicative of how anxious people are (Nicola et al. 2020 ) in times of the pandemic. Students all over the world, are also experiencing distress because of the uncertainty of examinations in their schools and colleges, and with regards to availability of jobs, etc. Inspite of teachers trying their level best to teach students online, the impact of such teaching is not optimum. The primary reason being, that all students are unable to afford online platforms usage and smoothly transition to online learning which can have a huge negative effect on students’ career path (Agha 2020 ). Cao et al. ( 2020 ) opined that anxiety issues among students during Covid-19 are related to their poor economic conditions, daily life events and hampered academic activities. In their study, Roy et al. ( 2020 ) found high levels of anxiety among Indians during the Covid-19 outbreak.

To the best of our knowledge, distress experienced (depression, anxiety and stress) by people during COVID-19 has not been explored altogether so far in India. Thus, the present research is an attempt to fill this gap so that effective mental health management can be planned by practitioners and policymakers.

The study was conducted from the 3rd of April 2020 to 6th of April 2020 (second week of the first national lockdown). A Google form was created and circulated on different online platforms such as Whatsapp groups and Linkedin. Online written consent was taken from all the participants before they answered the questions. The data was analysed with the help of SPSS v 21. t-test, Anova and Correlational analysis were carried out to make inferences.

A total of 403 participants completed the survey. Of the total participants, 110 were males, 291 were females and 2 preferred not to disclose their sex. The mean age of the participants was found to be 28.95. From the sample, 139 were students, 51 were teachers, 31 were researchers, 34 were mental health professionals, 33 were health professionals (Doctors and Nurses), 35 were in a corporate job while the remaining 80 were others (e.g., homemakers, not employed, retired, businessman, etc.).

Demographics

Items related to sex, availability of essentials and professions were asked along with psychometric measures.

Family Affluence Scale (Currie et al. 2008 )

The 4-item version of the scale was used to assess the socio-economic condition of the family. The responses were coded and added as per the instructions given by the author. Two of the items were modified to suit the current research. For example, an item “during the past 12 months, how many times did you travel away on holiday with your family?” was modified to “during the past 12 months, how many times did you travel away on holiday with your family or friends?”. Cronbach Alpha on the sample in the current study was found to be 0.6.

Response Accuracy Scale (Monaghan et al. 2020 )

The scale is a one-item measure used to assess the accuracy of the responses placed at the end of the questionnaire. Participants indicated how accurately they responded to the questionnaire on a five-point custom scale ranging from “Didn’t read the questions in the survey at all” to “read all questions in the survey”. Only respondents who chose “read most parts of the survey” or “read all questions in the survey” were included in the study and their responses were retained.

Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (Lovibond and Lovibond 1995 )

The 21-item DASS version was used to assess depression, anxiety, and stress. There are 7 items for each subscale. The responses were collected on a 4-point rating scale ranging from 0 “didn’t apply to me at all” to 3 “Applied to me very much or most of the time”. Cronbach’s alphas were found to be 0.85 for stress subscale, 0.75 for anxiety and 0.80 for depression subscales. The aggregated number for each subscale was multiplied by 2 and interpreted as suggested by the authors (Lovibond and Lovibond 1995 ). The severity ratings used to interpret are shown below:

Data Screening

No missing values were found in the data. However, responses from 13 people were excluded from the analysis as they did not choose option no 4: “Read most part of the survey” or option 5: “Read all questions in the survey carefully”, of the Response accuracy scale as prescribed by the authors. The excluded respondents were from different professions. Thus, the final data comprised of 390 individuals (108 males and 280 females). 2 respondents who preferred not to disclose their sex were also excluded from the gender difference analysis. For analysis (profession group difference), only students, teachers, researchers, mental health professionals, health professionals and professionals of corporate jobs were taken, while the rest were excluded from the analysis as they belonged to heterogeneous professions and their numbers were also significantly low. For example, there were 3 retirees, 4 housewives, 2 independent journalists, etc.

Table Table1 1 shows the mean differences between males and females. The mean values of stress, anxiety and depression for males were found to be 12.65, 9.91 and 10.81 respectively, with 9.26, 8.78, 9.99 standard deviations. For females, the mean values for stress, anxiety, and depression were found to be 13.44, 10.57 and 10.96 with 9.72, 8.77 and 9.76 as their respective standard deviations. The mean values of females were found to be higher than males. However, no significant difference was observed. Males and females did not differ significantly on stress (t = 0.73, p = 0.46), anxiety (t = 0.69, p = 0.50), and depression (t = 0.12, p = 0.90). Both males and females reported mild stress, moderate anxiety, and mild depression.

Gender differences

Table Table2 2 depicts differences in stress, anxiety and depression among people who had or can get daily essentials during the lockdown and people who cannot or are unsure. From the table, it can be inferred that people who did not have enough supplies were far more vulnerable than others. People who did not have enough supplies reported stress (M = 20.15), anxiety (M = 15.11) and depression (M = 16.96) with 11.65, 8.92 and 11.52 standard deviations. Further, people who were not sure about the supplies reported stress (M = 14.42), anxiety (M = 11.64), and depression (M = 12.30) with 8.66, 8.77 and 9.37 standard deviations. On the other hand, people who were sure and had supplies of daily essentials reported stress (M = 12.65), anxiety (M = 9.85) and depression (M = 10.33) with 9.37, 8.63 and 9.55 standard deviations.

Differences among people on the availability of daily essentials

The respondents who did not have supplies reported a moderate level of stress, severe anxiety, and moderate depression. On the other hand, respondents who were not sure about supplies reported mild stress, moderate anxiety, and moderate depression. It was evident that respondents who had or could manage the supplies reported mild stress, moderate anxiety, and mild depression. A group difference was observed on stress (F = 8.05, p < 0.01), anxiety (F = 5.00, p < 0.01) and depression (F = 6.18, p < 0.01). Further, pairwise comparison was carried out using Games Howell as the sample sizes among the groups were very different (Field 2013 ). A significant difference was only observed between people who had or could manage supplies and people who did not have or could not manage supplies of daily essentials on stress (Mean difference = Md = 7.50, p < 0.001), anxiety (Md = 5.26, p < 0.02), and depression (Md = 6.62, p < 0.02). No significant difference was observed between people who responded with “maybe” and “yes”.

Table Table3 3 shows group differences on stress, anxiety and depression. On stress, the mean values were found to be 15.57, 14.71, 11.06, 9.29, 14.61 and 8.97 for students, researchers, teachers/academicians, mental health professionals, health professions and corporate employees respectively. Their respective standard deviations were found to be 10.39, 9.89, 8.42, 8.87, 7.85 and 8.96. A significant difference was observed (F = 5.06, p < 0.01) among different kinds of professionals on stress. Students, researchers, teachers and health professionals reported mild stress, whereas mental health professionals and employees of corporates reported normal levels of stress. On anxiety, the mean values for students, researchers, teachers/academicians, mental health professionals, health professionals, and corporate employees were found to be 12.63, 9.81, 8.66, 5.65, 12.55 and 7.20 with 9.46, 6.88, 7.30, 8.35, 6.23 and 6.86 standard deviations respectively. A significant group difference was found on the anxiety scores (F = 6.28, p < 0.01) among different professional groups. Students, researchers and health professionals reported moderate levels of anxiety whereas, teachers and employees reported mild levels. For mental health professionals, a normal level of anxiety was observed. As far as the mean values on depression are concerned, students, researchers, teachers/academicians, mental health professionals, health professionals, and corporate employees reported 13.97, 10.65, 7.84, 6.76, 10.79 and 8.23 with 10.84, 8.72, 7.18, 10.04, 6.56 and 8.51 standard deviations respectively. A significant difference was also observed among the groups on depression (F = 5.88, p < 0.01). It was evident that teachers, mental health professionals, and employees reported normal levels of depressions, while health professionals and researchers reported mild levels. Moreover, students reported a moderate level of depression.

Differences between different professions

Further, a post hoc comparison was made using Games Howell as there was an unequal sample size among the group. On stress, a significant difference was observed only between students and teachers (Md = 4.51, p < 0.05), students and mental health professionals (Md = 6.27, p < 0.01), and students and employees of corporate world (Md = 6.60, p < 0.01). No significant difference was observed among other groups on stress. Meanwhile, on anxiety, a significant difference was observed between students and teachers (Md = 3.97, p < 0.05), students and mental health professionals (Md = 6.99, p < 0.01), students and employees of corporate jobs (Md = 5.43, p < 0.01), mental health professionals and health professionals (Md = 6.90, p < 0.01), and health professionals and employees of corporate world (Md = 5.35, p < 0.05). No significant difference was observed among any other group. As far as depression is concerned, a significant difference was observed only between students and teachers (Md = 6.13, p < 0.01), students and mental health professions (Md = 7.21, p < 0.01) and students and employees of some corporate organizations (Md = 5.74, p < 0.05).

Table Table4 4 indicate the correlation between stress, anxiety, depression, and family affluence. All the correlation coefficients were found to be significant. All three aspects of psychological distress (stress, anxiety and depression) shared a high significant positive correlation with each other. The correlation coefficients between stress and anxiety and stress and depression were found to be 0.73 and 0.81. However, between anxiety and depression, the correlation coefficient was found to be 0.70. As far as family affluence was concerned, it shared a relatively small but significant negative correlation with stress (r = − 0.20), anxiety (r = − 0.18), and depression (r = − 0.19).

Correlational coefficients

**Correlation coefficient was found to be significant at 0.01 level

The main aim of the present research was to explore the levels of psychological distress (stress, anxiety, and depression) among different sections of the Indian population. The data was collected from different professionals including students for this study. As far as gender differences on stress, anxiety, and depression were concerned, both males and females seemed to suffer equally. The levels of stress and depression were found to be mild, whereas the levels of anxiety were moderate among males and females. This could be because the current lockdown and fear of getting infected with Covid-19 are so pervasive, that similar experiences of distress are evident irrespective of gender.

Clearly, people who did not have or were unable to get enough supplies of daily essentials were most affected by the lockdown. Even though levels of stress and depression were found to be moderate, severe anxiety issues which could be attributed to the current situation were evident. What is noteworthy however, is that people who were not sure about supplies and those who had enough supplies seem to be affected less. Perhaps, people who were not sure about their supplies were either thinking of shared consequences or relying on their sources for future use.

Also, the findings of the current study shed light on how students and health professionals have suffered during the pandemic, which is in line with other studies (Sahu 2020 ; Cao et al. 2020 ; Law 2020 ). Essentially, students, researchers, teachers, and health professionals reported mild levels of stress, whereas mental health professionals and employees in different corporate jobs were found to be in the normal range of stress. These finding could be attributed to the closure of universities and colleges that offer limited technological support and knowledge resulting in uncertainty about the future of students, teachers, and researchers. The current pandemic places demands on students and teachers alike to adapt to online teaching albeit with limited resources, thus resulting in above normal stress levels. Furthermore, closure of hospitals for general OPDs may have been stressful for the medical staff who may fear getting infected. What needs to be noted though, is that mental health professions and employees of corporate organizations seem to have remained untouched by the pandemic situation. The probable reason could be that mental health professionals are resilient enough to deal with the situation and employees of corporates can easily work from home on their laptops.

As far as anxiety is concerned, students, researchers, and health professionals reported a moderate level of anxiety, whereas, teachers and corporate employees reported mild levels of stress. These findings could be because students and researchers (mostly Ph.D. scholars in social sciences faculty) engage and interact with each other frequently and physically in a social setting. During lockdown, with the closure of universities and colleges, such physical and social interaction has been restricted resulting in stress. For learning, students and researchers have to utilise online platforms that they may not be used to or competent with. In addition, online learning may be disruptive due to technological issues and thereby, jeopardizing their future careers. Conversely, for health care professionals, many are not working in the manner that they did earlier (because of lockdown and government restrictions on OPDs), and those who are working are fatigued and stressed since they have to work in extremely challenging situations and for long hours. Notably, many frontline doctors and health care professionals have been infected with COVID-19 (Jeelani and Gupta 2020 ).

Further, in the current study, it is evident that depression was not reported for teachers and employees working in the corporate sector. Perhaps, for these professionals their security and financial stability helps them cognitively counter the adverse effects of the lockdown. On the contrary, for researchers and health professionals, depression was reportedly mild, indicative of the mental health ramifications due to the rapid spread of the coronavirus (Roy et al. 2020 ). On the other hand, students were found to be moderately depressed which can probably be attributed to changes in their day-to-day life and in their teaching–learning activities.

However, a positive finding from this research was that mental health professionals reported normal levels of stress, anxiety, and depression during this pandemic. Evidence suggests that people in general are experiencing distress (Bansal 2020 ) and that they are seeking the services of mental health professionals. Essentially, Indian mental health professionals are resilient enough to help people in distress. Clearly, the development of a medical protocol for affected sections of society (students and health professionals) is much needed, so as to enable them to remain resilient even during the worst conditions. Despite the low correlation coefficient between family affluence and psychological distress (depression, anxiety and stress), the results of the correlational analysis complemented the findings of distress among people who did not have enough supplies. The low correlation signifies that despression, anxiety, and stress does not only depend on the financial resources of the family but is also related to the socio-economic status of a family. In fact, it can be alluded that people with good or high socio-economic status may get enough supplies, thus, making them less prone to psychological distress.

The present study is a frontrunner in exploring levels of anxiety, stress, and depression in the Indian population. The research findings indicate that students and health professionals need special attention because of their higher psychological distress. It is imperative that governments, NGOs and other agencies that are instrumental in distributing and delivering (daily essentials) focus more on people who do not have enough supplies. Lastly, policymakers also need to care for students and health professionals as the main stakeholders in the society.

Limitations

Although the research has made significant contributions and can be used by the government and other agencies to tackle the adverse psychological effects during Covid-19 and lockdown, it has some limitations. Firstly, the size of the sample in some groups was quite small. Secondly, the researchers utilised online Google forms for data collection that hindered the participation of a larger section of the population such as those who do not have internet, especially the underprivileged.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Ms. Nanaki J. Chadha for her valuable comments on the manuscript.

No funding was sought for the current research.

Compliance with Ethical Standards

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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