phd thesis on poverty alleviation

Bristol Poverty Institute

Poverty-related phd theses.

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From potential donor to actual donation : how does socioeconomic deprivation affect the recruitment and progression of living kidney donors (2016) Phillippa Kathryn Bailey  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Youth poverty and social inequalities in Mexico (2016) Héctor E. Nájera Catalán  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 10kB)

Widening participation in higher education for students from the low socio-economic status group - a social justice analysis of student loans in Tanzania  (2016) Faustina Martha Msigwa  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

To what extent has research been used to inform anti-poverty policy in Ghana ‌ ‌ (2016) Muhammed Williams  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Perspectives and models of community social work - social workers' understanding and practices in social exclusion and citizenship in Chile (2015) Gianinna Ines Munoz Arce  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 35kB)

Who deserves a better life - Social inequality in Chinese higher education access (2015) Yu Chen  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 13kB)

Improving the quality of teaching and learning in Mauritian primary schools - the role of learner-centred pedagogy in current educational reform   (2015) Mindy Lee Colin  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Alcohol patterns through mid-adolescence and socioeconomic position - the ALSPAC birth-cohort  ( 2015) Roberto Melotti‌  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Measuring residential segregation in England and Wales - a model-based approach (2015) Dewi Owen  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Child poverty in urban China (2015) Di Qi  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 9kB)

Pastoral community perspectives on formal education for girls - an ethnographic  study of Monduli District in Tanzania (2015) Adella Raymond  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 39kB)

Being and becoming - youth poverty and labour market transitions in Europe (2015) Alba Lanau Sánchez  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Social citizens - welfare provision and perceptions of citizenship amongst young people in Sri Lanka  (2014) Catherine Mary Agg  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 37kB)

Young people's lives in university - exploring welfare mixes and inequality of young people's experiences in university in England, Italy and Sweden (2014) Lorenza Antonucci  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 35kB)

Low social contact among UK working parents ‌ (2014) Marco Pomati  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Embracing universal access to secondary education in St. Vincent - what are the costs and consequences for parents in beneficiary households (2013) George S. Bristol  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 13kB)

A longitudinal multilevel study of the health outcomes for the elderly in China  (2013) Zhixin Feng ‌ Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Dilemmas and dynamics relating to selection for secondary schooling in Trinidad and Tobago (2013) Michele Celine Mills  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

Youth poverty reduction in Nigeria - a policy perspective ‌  (2012) Patricia Adaeze Momah  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

School level fundraising - exploring equity and governance in Tanzanian secondary schools ‌  (2012) Dorothy Godfrey Phumbwe  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 13kB)

Money, friends and coping day to day - an inclusive research project exploring poverty and social capital in the lives of people with a learning disability  (2012) Liz Tilley  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

A woman can starve before she gets any relief - poverty and hardship amongst service families during the Second World War in England   (2011) Helen Vegoda  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Mobility, inequality and polarization (2011) Claudia Vittori  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 38kB)

Gender, work and the new economy (2011) Jackie West  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

Community cohesion and ethnic difference (2011) Hannah White  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

Policy networks in African poverty reduction - a case study of the policy process for water supply in Lusaka, Zambia (2010) Darren Kirk Hedley  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

An analysis of changes in child poverty in the developing world at the end of the 20th century (2010) S Nandy  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Structural adjustment in Mexico - social and economic impacts (2009) Luis Felipe Gorjón Fernández  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

The meaning and measurement of poverty (2008) C. Deeming  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 10kB)

Jacob’s Wealth - an examination into the nature and role of material possessions in the Jacob-cycle (Gen 25.19-35.29) (2008) Paul D. Vrolijk  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 10kB)

Governance and policy-making in Thailand : a study of poverty alleviation policy since 1997 (2007) Amornsak Kitthananan  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

Dimensions of poverty ( 2007) Stephen McKay  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 10kB)

Social tariffs - a solution to fuel poverty (2006) William Baker  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Macroeconomic determinants of inequality and finance - evidence from Brazil (2006) Manoel F. Meyer Bittencourt  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 13kB)

Health outcomes and income inequality - a multilevel analysis of the Wilkinson hypothesis (2006) Min-Hua Jen  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 37kB)

Taiwans mountain policies and the poverty of the indigenous people  (2005) He-Chium Liou  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

How the World Bank perceives education's role in development and poverty reduction - an analysis of educational policy documents in their historical context (2005) Alison Oldfield  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 10kB)

Miscarriages of justice - exception to the rule ‌  (2003) Michael Naughton  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

(Net)working out poverty and social exclusion in rural Ireland and Russia  (2003) Sergei Vitalyevich Shubin  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

The Child Poverty Action Group 1965-1974 - the origins and effectiveness of a single-issue pressure group (2002) Maria Lesley Meyer-Kelly ‌ Click here to view abstract (PDF, 10kB)

Analysing the distribution of income and taxes in Slovenia with a tax benefit model (2002) Mitja CÌOEok  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

The effects of poverty on single mothers living in Hartcliffe (2000) Angela Vowles‌‌  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 8kB)

Structure, agency and power in local authority possession proceedings (1998) Nancy Carlton‌‌  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Working towards gender parity in education in developing countries - issues and challenges (1998) Rose Nassali-Lukwago  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 37kB)

What are the comparative advantages of international non-governmental organisations engaged in the alleviation of poverty in rural Africa (1996) Alistair Gilbert  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 9kB)

Social construction of gender inequality in the housing system in Hong Kong ‌  (1995) Kam Wah Chan‌‌  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

Ghana : structural adjustment and its impact on the incidence of mass poverty  (1995) Kwabena Donkor‌‌  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

Womens health in urban primary health care (1995) Ingrid Mijlof  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

The role of primary health care in the management of diseases of poverty in Northern Lesotho  (1994) Anastasia Ntsoaki Mohlba  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

A study of anti-poverty policy in the welfare state - the case of public assistance programmes in the Republic of Korea ( 1994) Gil-Sang Nho  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 11kB)

The link between poverty and ill health - some implications for health education in Zimbabwe (1993) Annah-Maria Regedza Razika-Mangwiro  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 37kB)

Poverty and social security in Malaysia - major themes in economic and social development ‌  (1991) Saaidah Abdul-Rahman  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 36kB)

Social justice and children in care (1990) Morag Christine Owen  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 9kB)

Life-history factors and inequalities in affective disorders - a cohort study ‌  (1990) Bryan Rodgers  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 10kB)

Colour and class inequality in Seychelles (1984) Kathleen Low-Hang  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 12kB)

Studies in the criminalisation of poverty - pauperism, pathology and policing ‌  (1984) P. Squires  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 18kB)

Christians and poverty ‌ ‌ (1983) Richard Norton  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 12kB)

Gender and the mental health of women (1982) J. Williams  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 13kB)

The population, public health and the poor of Leamington Priors 1830 – 51 (1979) Sally A. Brealey  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 14kB)

The relief of the poor in Walton-on-Thames under the Vestry and the Board of Guardians 1800-1850 - a comparison  (1974) Sarah Whiteaway  Click here to view abstract (PDF, 13kB)

Poverty Reduction: Concept, Approaches, and Case Studies

• Living reference work entry
• First Online: 10 January 2020
• Cite this living reference work entry

• Yakubu Aliyu Bununu 7  

Part of the book series: Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals ((ENUNSDG))

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Definitions

Poverty is universally measured in monetary expenditure terms, and individuals that are considered poor are those living on less than US$1.25 per day. Poverty is however multifaceted as it includes the multitude of lack and deprivations that poor people are subjected to in their lives on a daily basis. These include but are not limited to disease and poor health conditions, illiteracy and lack of access to education, appalling living conditions, lack of access to economic opportunity and disempowerment, underemployment, vulnerability to violence, and exposure to hazardous environmental conditions (OPHI 2019 ). Thus, poverty reduction can be considered as the improvement of an individual’s or group’s monetary expenditure to an amount above the poverty line while improving access to education, healthcare, information, economic opportunities security of land-tenure, and all the other deprivations associated with it.

Introduction

The eradication of poverty is perhaps the only...

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Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria

Yakubu Aliyu Bununu

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Bununu, Y.A. (2020). Poverty Reduction: Concept, Approaches, and Case Studies. In: Leal Filho, W., Azul, A., Brandli, L., Özuyar, P., Wall, T. (eds) Decent Work and Economic Growth. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71058-7_31-1

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71058-7_31-1

Received : 23 August 2019

Accepted : 08 September 2019

Published : 10 January 2020

Publisher Name : Springer, Cham

Print ISBN : 978-3-319-71058-7

Online ISBN : 978-3-319-71058-7

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Research Article

Evaluating poverty alleviation strategies in a developing country

Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA), Anand, Gujarat, India

Roles Data curation

• Pramod K. Singh, 
• Harpalsinh Chudasama

• Published: January 13, 2020
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227176
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A slew of participatory and community-demand-driven approaches have emerged in order to address the multi-dimensional nature of poverty in developing nations. The present study identifies critical factors responsible for poverty alleviation in India with the aid of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) deployed for showcasing causal reasoning. It is through FCM-based simulations that the study evaluates the efficacy of existing poverty alleviation approaches, including community organisation based micro-financing, capability and social security, market-based and good governance. Our findings confirm, to some degree, the complementarity of various approaches to poverty alleviation that need to be implemented simultaneously for a comprehensive poverty alleviation drive. FCM-based simulations underscore the need for applying an integrated and multi-dimensional approach incorporating elements of various approaches for eradicating poverty, which happens to be a multi-dimensional phenomenon. Besides, the study offers policy implications for the design, management, and implementation of poverty eradication programmes. On the methodological front, the study enriches FCM literature in the areas of knowledge capture, sample adequacy, and robustness of the dynamic system model.

Citation: Singh PK, Chudasama H (2020) Evaluating poverty alleviation strategies in a developing country. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0227176. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227176

Editor: Stefan Cristian Gherghina, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, ROMANIA

Received: September 27, 2019; Accepted: December 9, 2019; Published: January 13, 2020

Copyright: © 2020 Singh, Chudasama. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files. The aggregated condensed matrix (social cognitive map) is given in S1 Table . One can replicate the findings of this study by analyzing this weight matrix.

Funding: The World Bank and the Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India

Competing interests: We hereby declare that none of the authors have any conflict of interest on this paper.

1. Introduction

1.1. poverty alleviation strategies.

Although poverty is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, poverty levels are often measured using economic dimensions based on income and consumption [ 1 ]. Amartya Sen’s capability deprivation approach for poverty measurement, on the other hand, defines poverty as not merely a matter of actual income but an inability to acquire certain minimum capabilities [ 2 ]. Contemplating this dissimilarity between individuals’ incomes and their inabilities is significant since the conversion of actual incomes into actual capabilities differs with social settings and individual beliefs [ 2 – 4 ]. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) also emphasises the capabilities’ approach for poverty measurement as propounded by Amartya Sen [ 5 ]. “ Ending poverty in all its forms everywhere ” is the first of the 17 sustainable development goals set by the United Nations with a pledge that no one will be left behind [ 6 ]. Development projects and poverty alleviation programmes all over the world are predominantly aimed at reducing poverty of the poor and vulnerable communities through various participatory and community-demand-driven approaches [ 7 , 8 ]. Economic growth is one of the principal instruments for poverty alleviation and for pulling the poor out of poverty through productive employment [ 9 , 10 ]. Studies from Africa, Brazil, China, Costa Rica, and Indonesia show that rapid economic growth lifted a significant number of poor people out of financial poverty between 1970 and 2000 [ 11 ]. According to Bhagwati and Panagariya, economic growth generates revenues required for expanding poverty alleviation programmes while enabling governments to spend on the basic necessities of the poor including healthcare, education, and housing [ 9 ]. Poverty alleviation strategies may be categorised into four types including community organisations based micro-financing, capability and social security, market-based, and good governance.

Micro-finance, aimed at lifting the poor out of poverty, is a predominant poverty alleviation strategy. Having spread rapidly and widely over the last few decades, it is currently operational across several developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America [ 12 – 21 ]. Many researchers and policy-makers believe that access to micro-finance in developing countries empowers the poor (especially women) while supporting income-generating activities, encouraging the entrepreneurial spirit, and reducing vulnerability [ 15 , 21 – 25 ]. There are fewer studies, however, that show conclusive and definite evidence regarding improvements in health, nutrition, and education attributable to micro-finance [ 21 , 22 ]. For micro-finance to be more effective, services like skill development training, technological support, and strategies related to better education, health and sanitation, including livelihood enhancement measures need to be included [ 13 , 17 , 19 ].

Economic growth and micro-finance for the poor might throw some light on the financial aspects of poverty, yet they do not reflect its cultural, social, and psychological dimensions [ 11 , 21 , 26 ]. Although economic growth is vital for enhancing the living conditions of the poor, it does not necessarily help the poor exclusively tilting in favour of the non-poor and privileged sections of society [ 4 ]. Amartya Sen cites social exclusion and capability deprivation as reasons for poverty [ 4 , 27 ]. His capabilities’ approach is intended to enhance people’s well-being and freedom of choices [ 4 , 27 ]. According to Sen, development should focus on maximising the individual’s ability to ensure more freedom of choices [ 27 , 28 ]. The capabilities approach provides a framework for the evaluation and assessment of several aspects of the individual’s well-being and social arrangements. It highlights the difference between means and ends as well as between substantive freedoms and outcomes. An example being the difference between fasting and starving [ 27 – 29 ]. Improving capabilities of the poor is critical for improving their living conditions [ 4 , 10 ]. Improving individuals’ capabilities also helps in the pooling of resources while allowing the poor to engage in activities that benefit them economically [ 4 , 30 ]. Social inclusion of vulnerable communities through the removal of social barriers is as significant as financial inclusion in poverty reduction strategies [ 31 , 32 ]. Social security is a set of public actions designed to reduce levels of vulnerability, risk, and deprivation [ 11 ]. It is an important instrument for addressing the issues of inequality and vulnerability [ 32 ]. It also induces gender parity owing to the equal sovereignty enjoyed by both men and women in the context of economic, social, and political activities [ 33 ].

The World Development Report 1990 endorsed a poverty alleviation strategy that combines enhanced economic growth with provisions of essential social services directed towards the poor while creating financial and social safety nets [ 34 , 35 ]. Numerous social safety net programmes and public spending on social protection, including social insurance schemes and social assistance payments, continue to act as tools of poverty alleviation in many of the developing countries across the world [ 35 – 39 ]. These social safety nets and protection programmes show positive impacts on the reduction of poverty, extent, vulnerability, and on a wide range of social inequalities in developing countries. One major concern dogging these programmes, however, is their long-term sustainability [ 35 ].

Agriculture and allied farm activities have been the focus of poverty alleviation strategies in rural areas. Lately, though, much of the focus has shifted to livelihood diversification on the part of researchers and policy-makers [ 15 , 40 ]. Promoting non-farm livelihoods, along with farm activities, can offer pathways for economic growth and poverty alleviation in developing countries the world over [ 40 – 44 ]. During the early 2000s, the development of comprehensive value chains and market systems emerged as viable alternatives for poverty alleviation in developing countries [ 45 ]. Multi-sectoral micro-enterprises may be deployed for enhancing productivity and profitability through value chains and market systems, they being important for income generation of the rural poor while playing a vital role in inclusive poverty eradication in developing countries [ 46 – 48 ].

Good governance relevant to poverty alleviation has gained top priority in development agendas over the past few decades [ 49 , 50 ]. Being potentially weak in the political and administrative areas of governance, developing countries have to deal with enormous challenges related to social services and security [ 49 , 51 ]. In order to receive financial aid from multinational donor agencies, a good governance approach towards poverty reduction has become a prerequisite for developing countries [ 49 , 50 ]. This calls for strengthening a participatory, transparent, and accountable form of governance if poverty has to be reduced while improving the lives of the poor and vulnerable [ 50 , 51 ]. Despite the importance of this subject, very few studies have explored the direct relationship between good governance and poverty alleviation [ 50 , 52 , 53 ]. Besides, evidence is available, both in India and other developing countries, of information and communication technology (ICT) contributing to poverty alleviation programmes [ 54 ]. Capturing, storing, processing, and transmitting various types of information with the help of ICT empowers the rural poor by increasing access to micro-finance, expanding the use of basic and advance government services, enabling the development of additional livelihood assets, and facilitating pro-poor market development [ 54 – 56 ].

1.2. Proposed contribution of the paper

Several poverty alleviation programmes around the world affirm that socio-political inclusion of the poor and vulnerable, improvement of social security, and livelihood enhancement coupled with activities including promoting opportunities for socio-economic growth, facilitating gender empowerment, improving facilities for better healthcare and education, and stepping up vulnerability reduction are central to reducing the overall poverty of poor and vulnerable communities [ 1 , 11 ]. These poverty alleviation programmes remain instruments of choice for policy-makers and development agencies even as they showcase mixed achievements in different countries and localities attributable to various economic and socio-cultural characteristics, among other things. Several poverty alleviation programmes continue to perform poorly despite significant investments [ 8 ]. The failure rate of the World Bank’s development projects was above 50% in Africa until 2000 [ 57 ]. Hence, identifying context-specific factors critical to the success of poverty alleviation programmes is vital.

Rich literature is available pertinent to the conceptual aspects of poverty alleviation. Extant literature emphasises the importance of enhancing capabilities and providing social safety, arranging high-quality community organisation based micro-financing, working on economic development, and ensuring good governance. However, the literature is scanty with regard to comparative performances of the above approaches. The paper tries to fill this gap. This study, through fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM)-based simulations, evaluates the efficacy of these approaches while calling for an integrative approach involving actions on all dimensions to eradicate the multi-dimensional nature of poverty. Besides, the paper aims to make a two-fold contribution to the FCM literature: i) knowledge capture and sample adequacy, and ii) robustness of the dynamic system model.

The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows: We describe the methodology adopted in the study in section two. Section three illustrates key features of the FCM system in the context of poverty alleviation, FCM-based causal linkages, and policy scenarios for poverty alleviation with the aid of FCM-based simulations. We present our contribution to the extant literature relating to FCM and poverty alleviation. Finally, we conclude the paper and offer policy implications of the study.

2. Methodology

We conducted the study with the aid of the FCM-based approach introduced by Kosko in 1986 [ 58 ]. The process of data capture in the FCM approach is considered quasi-quantitative because the quantification of concepts and links may be interpreted in relative terms [ 59 ] allowing participants to debate the cause-effect relations between the qualitative concepts while generating quantitative data based on their experiences, knowledge, and perceptions of inter-relationships between concepts [ 60 – 64 , 65 – 68 ]. The FCM approach helps us visualise how interconnected factors/ variables/ concepts affect one another while representing self-loop and feedback within complex systems [ 62 , 63 , 69 ]. A cognitive map is a signed digraph with a series of feedback comprising concepts (nodes) that describe system behavior and links (edges) representing causal relationships between concepts [ 60 – 63 , 65 , 70 – 72 ]. FCMs may be created by individuals as well as by groups [ 60 , 72 , 73 ]. Individual cognitive mapping and group meeting approaches have their advantages and drawbacks [ 72 ]. FCMs allow the analysis of non-linear systems with causal relations, while their recurrent neural network behaviour [ 69 , 70 , 74 ] help in modelling complex and hard-to-model systems [ 61 – 63 ]. The FCM approach also provides the means to build multiple scenarios through system-based modelling [ 60 – 64 , 69 , 74 , 75 ].

The strengths and applications of FCM methodology, focussing on mental models, vary in terms of approach. It is important to remember, though, that (i) the FCM approach is not driven by data unavailability but is responsible for generating data [ 60 , 76 ]. Also that (ii) FCMs can model complex and ambiguous systems revealing hidden and important feedback within the systems [ 58 , 60 , 62 , 69 , 76 ] and (iii) FCMs have the ability to represent, integrate, and compare data–an example being expert opinion vis-à-vis indigenous knowledge–from multiple sources while divulging divergent viewpoints [ 60 ]. (iv) Finally, FCMs enable various policy simulations through an interactive scenario analysis [ 60 , 62 , 69 , 76 ].

The FCM methodology does have its share of weaknesses. To begin with: (i) Respondents’ misconceptions and biases tend to get encoded in the maps [ 60 , 62 ]. (ii) Possibility of susceptibility to group power dynamics in a group model-building setting cannot be ruled out; (iii) FCMs require a large amount of post-processing time [ 67 ]. (iv) The FCM-based simulations are non-real value and relative parameter estimates and lack spatial and temporal representation [ 60 , 77 , 78 ].

These drawbacks notwithstanding, we, along with many researchers, conceded that the strengths and applications of FCM methodology outweighed the former, particularly with regard to integrating data from multiple stakeholders with different viewpoints.

We adopted the multi-step FCM methodology discussed in the following sub-sections. We adopted the multi-step FCM methodology discussed in the following sub-sections. We obtained individual cognitive maps from the participants in two stages: ‘open-concept design’ approach followed by the ‘pre-concept design’ approach. We coded individual cognitive maps into adjacency matrices and aggregated individual cognitive maps to form a social cognitive map. FCM-based simulation was used to build policy scenarios for poverty alleviation using different input vectors.

2.1. Obtaining cognitive maps from the participants

A major proportion of the literature on fuzzy cognitive maps reflects an ‘open-concept design’ approach, while some studies also rely on a ‘pre-designed concept’ approach with regard to data collection.

In the case of the ‘open-concept design’ approach, concepts are determined entirely by participants and are unrestricted [ 59 , 60 , 62 , 63 , 65 – 67 , 79 , 80 ]. While the researcher determines the context of the model by specifying the system being modelled, including the boundaries of the system, participants are allowed to decide what concepts will be included. This approach provides very little restriction in the knowledge capture from participants and can be extremely beneficial especially if there is insufficient knowledge regarding the system being modelled.

In the case of the ‘pre-designed concept’ approach, concepts are pre-determined either by experts or by researchers using available literature [ 64 , 69 , 74 , 81 , 82 ]. In this approach, the researcher is able to exercise a higher degree of control over how the system is defined. The ‘pre-designed concept’ approach is likely to be more efficient compared to the ‘open-concept design’ in the context of time required for model building. However, it restricts the diversity of knowledge captured from participants and is able to influence more heavily the way in which this knowledge is contextualised based on input and interpretation.

We have adopted a ‘mixed-concept design’ approach for this study involving data collection in two stages:

2.1.1. Stage one: ‘Open-concept design’ approach.

During the first stage, we engaged with the experts and national-level policy-makers who designed the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana -National Rural Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NRLM), a centrally sponsored programme in India. The DAY-NRLM aims at abolishing rural poverty by promoting multiple livelihoods for the rural poor and vulnerable households. The programme is focussed on organising the rural poor and vulnerable communities into self-help groups (SHGs) while equipping them with means of self-employment. The four critical components of the programme viz ., (i) universal social mobilisation and institution building, (ii) financial inclusion, (iii) convergence and social development, and (iv) livelihood enhancement are designed to address the exclusions of these communities, eliminate their poverty, and bring them within the ambit of mainstream economic and social systems. Participants comprising three experts from the World Bank, nine experts from the National Mission Management Unit of the DAY-NRLM, and 25 monitoring and evaluation experts from 25 states of India created 37 FCMs. A sample map of FCMs obtained from these participants is provided in S1 Fig . We demonstrated the construction of fuzzy cognitive maps with the aid of a map from a neutral problem domain referring to direct and consequential impacts of deforestation, which had been approved by the ‘Research Ethics Committee’ of our Institute.

A group discussion was held with the participants regarding the issues under investigation subsumed under the title “critical factors required to ensure that people come out of poverty on a sustainable basis”. It prompted them to identify major concepts pertaining to the above. These were listed down on a whiteboard by the researchers. Once the participants had understood the process of drawing a fuzzy cognitive map and identified major concepts responsible for poverty alleviation, they were asked to draw a fuzzy cognitive map individually. The participants used the concepts listed on the whiteboard to draw fuzzy cognitive maps. Many participants added new concepts while drawing the maps. They then connected all the concepts through various links based on their personal understanding. The links, represented by arrows in between concepts, show the direction of influence between them.

The participants assigned weights to each link on a scale of 1–10 to describe the relationship strength between two concepts [ 60 ]. Ten denoted the highest strength and one the lowest; the numbers 1–3 signified relationships with low strength, 4–6 signified relationships with medium strength, and 7–10 signified relationships with high strength. After constructing the FCMs each participant made a presentation, which was video-recorded, explaining their map to the researchers. The researchers, based on causal relationships between the concepts, assigned positive and negative polarities to the weights of the links [ 59 , 60 , 62 – 64 , 66 – 68 , 72 ].

2.1.2. Stage two: ‘Pre-designed concept’ approach.

During the second stage, an instrument depicting 95 concepts under 22 concept categories was prepared based on the FCMs obtained from participants during the first stage ( S2 Fig ). The instrument also contained links between the 22 concept categories. ‘Research Ethics Committee’ of our Institute approved this instrument as well. We used this instrument during the second stage to obtain FCMs. We obtained 123 additional FCMs, of which 20 FCMs were obtained from the Chief Executive Officers along with experts from livelihood, enterprise, and community development domains belonging to the National Mission Management Unit in the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. The remaining 103 FCMs were obtained from 103 district project coordinators, who had agreed to participate in the study. Unlike most FCM-based studies, which usually rely upon 30 to 50 participants, this study involved 174 experts and project implementers. Most participants produced FCMs individually and some in pairs. The 174 participants produced 160 FCMs.

The participants were given the instrument and were instructed to assign weights to each concept, wherever applicable, and leave other cells blank. These weights were assigned based on the concepts’ significance regarding poverty alleviation in India. The instrument was designed to allow participants to add new concepts and/or remove existing ones from the instrument based on their understanding and perceptions. Later, the participants were asked to assign weights to all pre-established links between the 22 concept categories. The instrument also allowed participants to draw new linkages between the categories and/or discard the existing relationships based on their understanding and perceptions. After constructing the FCMs each participant made a presentation to the researchers, which was video-recorded. During the process, participants added 55 new concepts within the pre-classified 22 concept categories. Five new concepts were added under a new category. The final data comprised 23 concept categories and 155 concepts ( S3 Fig ).

2.2. Coding individual cognitive maps into adjacency matrices

The individual FCMs were coded into separate excel sheets, with concepts listed in vertical and horizontal axes, forming an N x N adjacency matrix. The weights of the links, on a scale of 1−10, were normalised in the −1 to +1 range [ 62 , 63 ]. The values were then coded into a square adjacency matrix whenever a connection existed between any two concepts [ 60 , 62 – 64 , 66 ].

2.3. Aggregation of individual cognitive maps

This aggregation approach has been adopted by many researchers [ 59 , 60 , 63 – 67 , 74 , 79 , 84 – 87 ]. A large number of concepts in an aggregated (social/ group) fuzzy cognitive map with many interconnections and feedback form a complex system. Aggregation of all the 160 individual cognitive maps produced a social cognitive map ( S1 Table ). This shows the cumulative strength of the system.

2.4. Structural analysis of the system

Structural analysis of the final condensed social cognitive map was undertaken using the FCMapper software. The graph theory of a cognitive map provides a way of characterising FCM structures employing several indices in addition to the number of concepts (C) and links (W) such as in-degree, out-degree, centrality, complexity index, and density index [ 60 ].

The degree centrality of a concept is the summation of its in-degree and out-degree. The higher the value, the greater is the importance of a concept in the overall model [ 60 ].

Transmitter concepts (T) depict positive out-degree and zero in-degree. Receiver concepts (R) represent positive in-degree and zero out-degree. Ordinary concepts (O) have both a non-zero in-degree and out-degree [ 60 ].

2.5. Fuzzy cognitive maps-based simulations

The scenarios formed through FCM-based simulations can serve to guide managers and policy-makers during the decision-making process [ 62 – 64 , 66 , 69 , 82 , 88 – 90 ]. An FCM is formed out of the adjacency matrix and a state vector, representing the values of the connections between the concepts and the values of the system concepts [ 62 , 63 , 69 ]. The weighted adjacency matrix of an FCM forms a recurrent neural network, including concepts and interconnections for processing the information and feedback loops [ 88 , 91 ]. These have been used to analyse system behavior by running FCM-based simulations in order to determine possible future scenarios.

In order to understand FCM-based simulations, let us understand the FCM as a quadruple, i.e. M = (C n , W , A , f) , where, n is the set of all concepts ( C ) in the map, W : ( C i , C j ) → w ij is a function which defines the causal weight matrix, W M × M , A : ( C i ) → A ( t ) i is a function that computes the activation degree of each concept C i at the discrete-time step t ( t = 1, 2, …, T ), and f (.) is the transfer function [ 63 , 71 , 92 , 93 ]. Knowledge and experience of stakeholders regarding the system determine the type and number of concepts as well as the weights of the links in FCMs. The value A i of a concept C i , expresses the quantity of its corresponding value. With values assigned to the concepts and weights, the FCM converges to an equilibrium point [ 71 , 91 ]. At each step, the value A i of a concept is calculated, following an activation rule, which computes the influence of other concepts to a specific concept.

Where, n is the total number of concepts, A i ( t +1) is the value of concept C i at simulation step t +1, A i ( t ) is the value of concept C i at simulation step t , A j ( t ) is the value of concept C j at simulation step t , w ji is the weight of the interconnection between concept C j and concept C i , and f is the transformation function [ 64 , 90 ]. The restriction i ≠ j is used when self-causation is assumed to be impossible [ 91 ].

2.5.1. Development of input vectors for policy scenarios.

Identifying pivotal concepts is a traditional approach in scenario planning that helps linking storylines to the quantitative model [ 96 ]. In the FCM-based scenario analysis, recognition of such pivotal concepts, termed as input vectors, mainly relies upon participants’ perceptions along with the characteristics of the model. We identified four input vectors for four poverty alleviation policy scenarios based on existing literature on poverty alleviation strategies. The fifth input vector is based on the concepts with the highest weights identified by the participants. In the sixth input vector, the concept representing entrepreneurship is replaced by the concept representing livelihood diversification considering its importance based on existing literature [ 15 , 40 ]. All six scenarios are explained below:

Scenario 1 : High-quality community organisation based micro-financing —Input vector 1: C2, C3, C4, C5, C11, and C12 (strong institutions of the poor, community heroes driving the programme, capacity building of the community organisations, mainstream financial institutions supporting community organisations, need-based finance, and developing repayment culture). This scenario tries to examine how high-quality community organisation based micro-finance could alleviate poverty.

Scenario 2 : Capabilities and social security —Input vector 2: C19, C20, C21, C22, and C23 (affordable and approachable education and healthcare, social inclusion, building personal assets, adequate knowledge base, and vulnerability reduction). This scenario tries to estimate how improving the capabilities of the poor and providing them social security would help alleviate poverty.

Scenario 3 : Market-based approach —Input vector 3: C13, C14, C15, C16, and C17 (livelihood diversification, entrepreneurship, multi-sectoral collective enterprise, value addition by collectives, and market linkages). This scenario tries to evaluate how a market-based approach could alleviate poverty.

Scenario 4 : Good governance approach —Input vector 4: C6, C7, C8, C9, and C10 (good governance systems and processes, robust monitoring mechanisms, implementation process, linkages/ convergence/ partnerships, and enabling policy & political will). This scenario tries to evaluate how good governance is crucial for poverty alleviation.

Scenario 5 : Integrative approach 1 —Input vector 5: C2, C3, C6, C9, C10, C14, and C19 (strong institutions of the poor, community heroes driving the programme, sound governance systems and processes, enabling policy & political will, linkages/ convergence/ partnerships, entrepreneurship, and affordable and approachable education and healthcare). This scenario tries to assess how the most critical concepts, identified by the participants, are crucial for poverty alleviation.

Scenario 6 : Integrative approach 2 —Input vector 6: C2, C3, C6, C9, C10, C13, and C19 (strong institutions of the poor, community heroes driving the programme, good governance systems and processes, enabling policy & political will, linkages/ convergence/ partnerships, livelihood diversification, and affordable and approachable education and healthcare). This scenario tries to assess how the most important concepts, including livelihood diversification, are critical for the alleviation of poverty. Based on the relative weights, scenarios 4 to 6 also had alternative input vectors incorporating sensitive support structure (C1) without any demonstrable results.

2.5.2. Simulation process.

Each concept in the system has an initial state vector A 0 that varies from 0 to |1|. which is associated with an activation vector, where 0 means ‘non-activated’ and |1| means ‘activated’ [ 65 , 80 ]. A new state of the concepts can be calculated by multiplying the adjacency matrix with the state vector [ 69 ]. When one or more concepts are ‘activated’ this activation spreads through the matrix following the weighted relationships. During the simulation process, each iteration produces a new state vector with ‘activated’ concepts and ‘non-activated’ concepts. Self-loops and feedback cause a repeated activation of concepts, introducing non-linearity to the model [ 61 , 70 , 88 ]. The activation of concepts is iterated, using a ‘squashing function’ to rescale concept values towards |1|, until the vector values stabilise and the model reaches equilibrium or steady-state [ 61 , 65 , 70 ]. The resulting concept values may be used to interpret outcomes of a particular scenario and to study the dynamics of the modeled system [ 61 – 63 , 70 ].

The simulation process is carried out with the initial state vector of the input vectors, identified in each scenario (1 to 6), clamped to 1 ( A 1 ) and the initial state vector of all the other concepts clamped to 0 ( A 0 ). We applied the activation rule proposed by Stylios [ 94 ], to run simulations because of its memory capabilities along with the sigmoid transformation function as the links have only positive values. The sensitivity of the system was analysed by clamping the concepts of each input vector to 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9 ( S4 Fig ) to determine whether the system behaves in a similar manner in each simulation [ 62 , 63 , 72 , 89 ].

3. Results and discussions

3.1. key features of the fcm system in the context of poverty alleviation.

The social cognitive map built by combining the individual FCMs comprises 23 concepts and 51 links ( Fig 2 and S1 Table ). This FCM system has a density index of 0.088, which signifies that 8.8% links are actually made of the maximum number of links that could theoretically exist between the 24 concepts. The FCM system has a complexity index of 0.125, which showcases more utility outcomes and less controlling forcing functions. However, unless the density and complexity values of the FCM system are compared to those of other FCM systems representing a similar topic, interpretation of these figures is challenging [ 75 ].

There are some autonomous concepts virtually disengaged from the system. Some dependent concepts although have a relatively low degree of influence, exhibit strong dependence. The contribution of a concept in a cognitive map can be understood by its degree centrality, which is the summation of in-degree and out-degree. Table 1 illustrates the in-degree and out-degree and degree centrality of the FCM system. Concepts have been depicted such as C2: strong institutions of the poor, C15: multi-sectoral collective enterprise development, C13: livelihood diversification and C14: entrepreneurship have higher degree centrality. These concepts should be interpreted as the greatest strength of poverty alleviation strategies. The most influential concepts (i.e., those with the highest out-degree) affecting the poverty alleviation strategies are C6: good governance systems and processes, C19: affordable and approachable education and healthcare, C18: climate-smart production systems, C2: strong institutions of the poor, and C5: mainstream financial institutions supporting CBOs. Scenario analysis results will later help us gain a deeper understanding of the connectivity and influencing concepts of poverty alleviation.

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The participants also provided the state vector values (A) of all the concepts (C) based on their understanding of the relative significance of these concepts regarding poverty alleviation in India ( Fig 1 ).

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The results show that participants assigned greater significance to the following concepts- C3: community heroes driving the programme, C1: quality support structure, C19: affordable and approachable education and healthcare, C6: good governance systems and processes, C2: strong institutions of the poor, C12: developing repayment culture, and C7: robust monitoring mechanisms.

The results acknowledge that building strong institutions of the poor for a community-demand-driven and community-managed poverty alleviation programme is likely to enjoy greater success. They also confirm that developing robust monitoring mechanisms can ensure better functioning of the community-based organisations (CBOs). Robust governance systems and processes are essential for vibrant CBOs. They can empower communities to have better access to affordable education and healthcare facilities. Better access to micro-finance for these CBOs could help alleviate the economic poverty of the poor and vulnerable communities.

The results, however, fail to capture the cultural and social dimensions of poverty.

3.2. Understanding the poverty alleviation strategy

This section summarises the views of participants across the concepts based on the presentations made by them to the researcher during both the stages of knowledge capture. Fig 2 illustrates the cognitive interpretive diagram formed using the social cognitive map. The concepts, represented by each node in the diagram, are connected by several links. These links establish relationships between the concepts representing the basis of degree centrality. The central concept is people coming out of poverty, which is depicted with yellow color in Fig 2 .

Participants indicated that setting up a quality and dedicated support structures at multiple levels (national, state, district, and block) is essential for poverty alleviation ( Fig 2 : C1). The support structures should be staffed with professionally competent and dedicated human resources. The crucial role of these support structures is to build and nurture strong institutions of the poor ( Fig 2 : C2) at multiple levels and evanesce when community heroes start driving the programme. Building and sustaining strong, inclusive, self-managed, and self-reliant institutions of the poor at various levels such as self-help groups (SHGs), village organisations (VOs), and cluster-level federations (CLFs) through training, handholding, and systematic guidance are crucial to the success of a poverty alleviation programme. However, superior CBOs are required to ensure the quality of primary-level institutions and their sustainability. Adherence to the five principles (regular meetings, regular savings, regular inter-loaning, timely repayment of the loans, and up-to-date books of accounts), co-ordination, and cohesiveness between the members would go a long way in building strong institutions of the poor.

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Participants emphasised the importance of community heroes in driving the poverty alleviation programme ( Fig 2 : C3). The poverty eradication programme is likely to meet with greater success if it is entirely operated and managed by the community. Involving experienced community members for social mobilisation, capacity building and scaling-up of various processes within the project will ensure effective functioning and implementation of the programme. Participants believed that the capacity building of the CBOs, community resource persons, community cadres, and community service providers ( Fig 2 : C4) are essential for poverty alleviation. Apart from training in social and financial inclusion, these community members should be provided with knowledge, skills, and tools to improve their existing livelihoods and for managing innovative livelihood collectives and micro-enterprises. Providing access to financial services to society’s most vulnerable group in a cost-effective manner through mainstream financial institutions and allowing the poor to become preferred clients of the banking system is fundamental to the financial inclusion strategy of a poverty alleviation programme ( Fig 2 : C5). The SHG-bank linkage enables an easy access to micro-finance for the SHGs. It also serves to foster their faith towards the banking system.

Good governance systems and processes are crucial to building sensitive support structures and strong institutions of the poor ( Fig 2 : C6). A well-structured process for participatory identification of the poor by the community helps identify very poor, poor, vulnerable, tribal, differently-abled, and other marginalised communities in a village. A robust process for grading the quality of SHGs and their federations could help maintain a high standard for these institutions. Strong, robust, and transparent monitoring mechanisms ( Fig 2 : C7) could ensure good governance systems and processes. The process-oriented approach of the programme needs to undergo continuous review, assessment, and course-correction from the qualitative and quantitative progress achieved at various levels. Hence, participants suggested that a robust ICT-based monitoring and evaluation system remain in place for facilitating informed decision-making at all levels. The participants also indicated the urgency of robust implementation of institutional accountability and a self-monitoring process in institutions of the poor at all levels, including peer internal review mechanisms, external social auditing, public expenditure tracking, and community scorecards, in order to build stronger institutions of the poor ( Fig 2 : C8). Transparency in the functioning of human resources at all levels aided by regular meetings, reviews, and monitoring of progress could ensure effective implementation of the programme. Maintaining equity and transparency in releasing finances and ensuring effective fund utilisation across all eligible groups could also help focus on the most vulnerable groups.

The participants believed that a poverty alleviation programme should have a strong convergence with other welfare programmes ( Fig 2 : C9). Stronger emphasis should be placed on convergence for developing synergies directly and through the institutions of the poor. Participants suggested that the programme recognise the importance of engaging with industries to set up platforms for public-private-partnerships in farm and non-farm sectors while developing various sector-specific value chains to harness the comparative advantage of the micro-enterprise sector. The political will to support and encourage CBOs, enabling policies for smooth and efficient working of the institutions of the poor, diminished political influence in the decision-making of CBOs, and timely and adequate resource allocation on the part of government institutions is critical for poverty alleviation programmes ( Fig 2 : C10).

Participants acknowledged that livelihood augmentation requires customised need-based financing for the poor and vulnerable ( Fig 2 : C11). Access to micro-finance at affordable rates of interest coupled with desired amounts and convenient repayment terms are needed for the poverty reduction of communities. Providing interest subvention for all SHG loans availed from mainstream financial institutions, based on prompt loan repayment, helps develop a healthy loan repayment culture ( Fig 2 : C12).

Participants opined that diversification of livelihoods would ensure steady incomes for households ( Fig 2 : C13). The development of micro-enterprise in farm and non-farm sectors could encourage institutions of the poor in the aggregation of produce, value-addition, and marketing of finished goods. Therefore, it is imperative that more and more sustainable enterprises be created by the poor to improve their livelihood security. The demand-driven entrepreneurship ( Fig 2 : C14) programmes could be taken up through public-private-partnerships. Provisions could be made for incubation funds and start-up funds for the development of multi-sectoral livelihood collectives ( Fig 2 : C15) to foster a collective entrepreneurship spirit. Livelihood activities, in order to be commercially viable, would require economy of scale, enabling the adoption of available technologies while providing better bargaining power, offering a more significant political clout, and influencing public policy over time. Building specialised multi-sectoral collective institutions of the poor, such as producers’ companies and co-operatives could make the latter key players in the market. These livelihood institutions could carry out participatory livelihood mapping and integrated livelihood planning as well as build robust livelihood clusters, supply chains, and value chains. They could also identify gaps in the supply and value chains, create backward and forward linkages, and tap market opportunities for intervention and collectivisation for chosen livelihood activities ( Fig 2 : C16; C17). Developing adequate and productive infrastructure for processing, storage, packaging, and transportation is crucial for value addition ( Fig 2 : C16). The demand-based value chain development is currently evident in micro-investment planning processes. Identifying non-farm activities to support enterprises in a comprehensive way could also be crucial. Adequate market linkages and support services like branding, market research, market knowledge, market infrastructure, and backward linkages would go a long way in deriving optimum returns from the chosen livelihood activities ( Fig 2 : C17).

Several eco-friendly, climate-smart, and innovative approaches in agriculture production systems will ensure the sustainability of production systems even in the context of climate change ( Fig 2 : C18). Contemporary grassroots innovations supplemented by robust scientific analysis, mainly supported by various government programmes, are likely to ensure enhanced and efficient production systems. Focus on developing adequate infrastructure for processing, storing, and transporting for value addition would serve to reduce post-harvest losses.

Participants believed that affordable and approachable quality education up to the secondary level as well as affordable and quality healthcare facilities are crucial for poverty alleviation ( Fig 2 : C19). Convergence with mid-day-meal schemes will not only encourage communities to send their children to schools but also help curb malnutrition. An affordable and approachable healthcare system is likely to help reduce health-related vulnerabilities of the poor. Crucial is an approach that identifies all needy and poor households while primarily focussing on vulnerable sections like scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, particularly vulnerable tribal groups, single women and women-headed households, disabled, landless, migrant labor, isolated communities, and those living in disturbed areas. Equally crucial is including them in institutions of the poor ( Fig 2 : C20). Customised micro-financing coupled with adequate instruments on healthcare and education could aid vulnerability reduction ( Fig 2 : C23). The social, human, and personal assets created by developing institutions of the poor are crucial for sustaining and scaling-up of the poverty alleviation programme ( Fig 2 : C21). This will also allow women to articulate their problems and improve their self-confidence, enhance their respect in society, develop leadership qualities, inspire them to speak and express their feelings unhesitatingly, and empower them economically and socially. Developing an academic understanding of the factors that support community institutions is crucial for the social infrastructure developed to facilitate the social capital building of the poor and vulnerable communities ( Fig 2 : C22).

3.3. FCM-based simulations

In order to evaluate critical factors responsible for poverty alleviation, we used six input vectors for FCM-based simulations. For each scenario, causal propagation occurs in each iteration until the FCM system converges [ 62 – 65 , 67 , 70 , 91 ]. This happens when no change takes place in the values of a concept after a certain point, also known as the system steady-state; the conceptual vector at that point is called the final state vector [ 62 – 65 , 67 , 70 , 91 ]. Values of the final state vectors depend on the structure of the FCM system and concepts considered for input vectors. The larger the value of the final state vectors, the better the selected policies [ 62 – 65 ]. Comparisons between the final state vectors of the alternative simulations are drawn in order to assess the extent of the desired transition by activating each set of input vectors. The initial values and final state vectors of all the concepts for every scenario are presented in Table 2 . The graphical representation of various scenarios for poverty alleviation is provided in the S5 Fig .

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The first scenario highlights the effects of high-quality community organisations based micro-financing approach. If strong institutions of the poor are built and community heroes start driving the poverty alleviation programme, capacity building of the CBOs gets underway. If mainstream financial institutions start supporting CBOs while customised need-based finance and a repayment culture is developed significant efforts would still be required for putting good governance systems and processes in place along with linkages/ convergences/ partnerships along with other schemes while building capabilities of the poor. In the case of successful micro-financing, there will be opportunities for livelihood diversification, entrepreneurship, multi-sectoral collective enterprise development, value addition by collectives, and market linkages.

The second scenario highlights the effects of the capabilities approach and social security. In this case, affordable and approachable education and healthcare, social inclusion, the building of personal assets, adequate knowledge base, and vulnerability reduction are ensured. In this context, ample efforts will be required for mainstream financial institutions supporting CBOs, good governance systems and processes, and linkages/ convergences/ partnerships with other schemes. Efforts will also be required for a quality support structure and customised need-based finance. The capability and social security enhancement could have prospects for strong institutions of the poor, better implementation processes, livelihood diversification, entrepreneurship, value addition by collectives, multi-sectoral collective enterprise development, and vulnerability reduction.

The third scenario highlights the outcomes of the market-based approach. Here, livelihood diversification, entrepreneurship, multi-sectoral collective enterprise development, value addition by collectives, and market linkages are activated. In such a situation, adequate efforts will be required for mainstream financial institutions supporting CBOs, good governance systems and processes, and linkages/ convergences/ partnerships with other schemes. Efforts will also be required for continuous capacity building of the CBOs, customised need-based finance, affordable and approachable education and healthcare, and vulnerability reduction.

The fourth scenario highlights the outcomes of good governance. Here, good governance systems and processes, robust monitoring mechanisms, implementation processes, enabling policies and political will, and linkages/ convergence/ partnership with other governmental schemes are ensured. In such a situation, plentiful efforts will be required for mainstream financial institutions to lend their support to CBOs and for the building of personal assets. Efforts will also be required for developing a repayment culture, climate-smart production systems, and vulnerability reduction. Good governance is likely to ensure strong institutions of the poor, development of collective enterprises, livelihood diversification, entrepreneurship, value addition by collectives, and market linkages.

In the fifth and sixth scenarios, we activated the most important concepts identified by the participants. The sixth scenario is similar to the fifth one except that the concept C14: entrepreneurship has been replaced by the concept C13: livelihood diversification. The simulation results reveal that quality of CBOs, strong institutions of the poor, community heroes driving the programme, good governance systems and processes, convergence with other schemes/ programmes, enabling policies and political will, and livelihood diversification are very critical for poverty alleviation in a developing nation.

The participants judged a relatively higher weight for the concept C1 (sensitive support structure) ( Fig 1 ). This could be attributed to a conflict of interest on the part of the participants. Even after activating the concept C1 across policy scenarios 4 to 6, the outcome does not change. This also justifies the fact that any community-demand-driven and community-managed poverty alleviation programme has to be self-sustainable in the long-term. Therefore, while a poverty alleviation programme may make use of a support structure in its initial phase, it should persist at thriving even after the support structure has been withdrawn.

4. Contributions to FCM and poverty literature and future research directions

This section deals with contributions of the paper to FCM and poverty literature while offering a practical approach to address multi-dimensional poverty. The paper makes a two-fold contribution to FCM literature: i) knowledge capture and sample adequacy and ii) robustness of the dynamic system model. FCM sampling is often extended if additional maps keep adding new dimensions/ insights. The saturation of FCM sampling is formally measured by tracking the number of new concepts introduced in subsequent exercises and estimating an accumulation curve of concepts. When the point of saturation is reached data collection is stopped. In most studies, the saturation of FCM sampling is reported at 30–32 maps [ 60 , 62 , 63 , 66 , 72 ]. This study does demonstrate, however, that in the event of a ‘mixed-concept design’ approach when the participants gain access to concepts already identified by other sets of participant groups the latter participants continue to add new concepts, making the system much more complex and the data richer. Most FCM-based case studies published in scientific journals have taken weights of the causal interactions between the concepts. This study has not only obtained weights of the causal interactions between the concepts but also obtained weights of each concept. Results of the FCM-based simulations, by and large, match with the most critical concepts identified by participants represented by higher relative weights. This demonstrates in-depth understanding of participants of the subject matter and robustness of the system.

Scenarios are defined as ‘a plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions’ [ 97 ]. It also represents uncertainty as a range of plausible futures. Hence, in order to establish proper causal pathways of various poverty eradication approaches, it may be necessary to design random control trial experiments along each of the poverty eradication approaches and carry out the efficacy of each approach delineated above using the difference-in-difference micro-econometric model.

5. Conclusions

The results of our FCM-based simulations reveal that in order to eradicate poverty one needs to provide micro-finance through high-quality community organisations, enhance capabilities of the poor while providing social safety nets to the poor and vulnerable, ensure good governance within community organisations and institutions supporting them, continue to diversify livelihood options, and provide market linkages to small producers. Our findings confirm that various approaches to poverty alleviation are rather complementary and need to be implemented simultaneously for a comprehensive poverty alleviation drive. However, in relative terms, factors like good governance within community organisations and supporting institutions, high-quality community organisations based micro-financing, and enhancement of capabilities coupled with social security assurance seem to work better than a market-based approach. There is rich literature available on radical approaches like land reforms, decentralisation and poverty alleviation that have not been evaluated in this study. Nevertheless, findings of the study lead us to conclude that in order to address multi-dimensional poverty an integrated and multi-dimensional poverty alleviation approach is needed. Findings of the study are likely to help improve the design, management, and implementation of poverty eradication programmes in developing countries.

Supporting information

S1 fig. a simple fcm obtained during the workshop conducted in phase 1..

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S2 Fig. The survey instrument used during phase 2 of the data collection.

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S3 Fig. A list of all the concept categories and sub-concepts after data collection.

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S4 Fig. Sensitivity analysis of the system.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227176.s004

S5 Fig. Various scenarios for poverty alleviation.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227176.s005

S1 Table. Social cognitive map.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227176.s006

Acknowledgments

We thank the World Bank team and functionaries of DAY-NRLM at national, state, and district levels for participating in the study. Indrani Talukdar is acknowledged for language editing. We thank the Academic Editor and the two anonymous reviewers for providing insightful comments and constructive suggestions.

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Poverty Alleviation and Public Policy: Three Essays on Impact of Cash Transfers on Food Insecurity, Life Satisfaction and Informal Transfers

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• March 19, 2019
• Affiliation: College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Public Policy
• This dissertation investigates non-obvious ways in which social programs can affect households such as resilience, psychosocial wellbeing and social capital. I use quasi-randomized longitudinal data collected for the evaluation of Zimbabwe’s Harmonized Social Cash Transfer (HSCT) Program. The HSCT is an unconditional cash transfer program targeted to ultra-poor households who are food poor and labor constrained. Data was collected through a detailed household survey, conducted at baseline and 12-month follow-up. The first paper shows that aggregate food consumption hides dynamic activity taking place within the household. In addition, I find that several dimensions of household vulnerability correlate more strongly with an experiential food security measurer, than with aggregate food consumption. My second paper finds that the impact of the cash transfer on subjective wellbeing is partially mediated through food security, but social participation measures indicate null to negligible mediation. Qualitative data reveal that while the cash transfer enables beneficiaries to be active participants in their communities, it also leads to tension between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. In the third paper, I investigate if the HSCT crowded-out inter-household transfers, that are gifts in cash or kind, provided to a household through informal sources, such as neighbors, friends, and extended family. I find that the program does not crowd-out informal inter-household transfers. Other mechanisms by which poor households manage risk and cope with liquidity constraints include contributions made to social networks or the ability to take out a loan. I do not find any impact of the Program on loans and amount outstanding of the beneficiary. However, number of households making contributions and the value of these contributions has increased, especially for female-respondent households.
• subjective wellbeing
• Public policy
• informal transfers
• cash transfer
• social protection
• food security
• https://doi.org/10.17615/0e2h-dm63
• Dissertation
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• Peter, Klara
• Handa, Sudhanshu
• Angeles, Gustavo
• Moulton, Jeremy
• Durrance, Christine
• Doctor of Philosophy
• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Graduate School

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Four from MIT named 2024 Knight-Hennessy Scholars

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MIT senior Owen Dugan, graduate student Vittorio Colicci ’22, predoctoral research fellow Carine You ’22, and recent alumna Carina Letong Hong ’22 are recipients of this year’s Knight-Hennessy Scholarships. The competitive fellowship, now in its seventh year, funds up to three years of graduate studies in any field at Stanford University. To date, 22 MIT students and alumni have been awarded Knight-Hennessy Scholarships.

“We are excited for these students to continue their education at Stanford with the generous support of the Knight Hennessy Scholarship,” says Kim Benard, associate dean of distinguished fellowships in Career Advising and Professional Development. “They have all demonstrated extraordinary dedication, intellect, and leadership, and this opportunity will allow them to further hone their skills to make real-world change.”

Vittorio Colicci ’22

Vittorio Colicci, from Trumbull, Connecticut, graduated from MIT in May 2022 with a BS in aerospace engineering and physics. He will receive his master’s degree in planetary sciences this spring. At Stanford, Colicci will pursue a PhD in earth and planetary sciences at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. He hopes to investigate how surface processes on Earth and Mars have evolved through time alongside changes in habitability. Colicci has worked largely on spacecraft engineering projects, developing a monodisperse silica ceramic for electrospray thrusters and fabricating high-energy diffraction gratings for space telescopes. As a Presidential Graduate Fellow at MIT, he examined the influence of root geometry on soil cohesion for early terrestrial plants using 3D-printed reconstructions. Outside of research, Colicci served as co-director of TEDxMIT and propulsion lead for the MIT Rocket Team. He is also passionate about STEM engagement and outreach, having taught educational workshops in Zambia and India.

Owen Dugan, from Sleepy Hollow, New York, is a senior majoring in physics. As a Knight-Hennessy Scholar, he will pursue a PhD in computer science at the Stanford School of Engineering. Dugan aspires to combine artificial intelligence and physics, developing AI that enables breakthroughs in physics and using physics techniques to design more capable and safe AI systems. He has collaborated with researchers from Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and DeepMind, and has presented his first-author research at venues including the International Conference on Machine Learning, the MIT Mechanistic Interpretability Conference, and the American Physical Society March Meeting. Among other awards, Dugan is a Hertz Finalist, a U.S. Presidential Scholar, an MIT Outstanding Undergraduate Research Awardee, a Research Science Institute Scholar, and a Neo Scholar. He is also a co-founder of VeriLens, a funded startup enabling trust on the internet by cryptographically verifying digital media.

Carina Letong Hong ’22

Carina Letong Hong, from Canton, China, is currently pursuing a JD/PhD in mathematics at Stanford. A first-generation college student, Hong graduated from MIT in May 2022 with a double major in mathematics and physics and was inducted into Sigma Pi Sigma, the physics honor society. She then earned a neuroscience master’s degree with dissertation distinctions from the University of Oxford, where she conducted artificial intelligence and machine learning research at Sainsbury Wellcome Center’s Gatsby Unit. At Stanford Law School, Hong provides legal aid to low-income workers and uses economic analysis to push for law enforcement reform. She has published numerous papers in peer-reviewed journals, served as an expert referee for journals and conferences, and spoken at summits in the United States, Germany, France, the U.K., and China. She was the recipient of the AMS-MAA-SIAM Morgan Prize for Outstanding Research, the highest honor for an undergraduate in mathematics in North America; the AWM Alice T. Schafer Prize for Mathematical Excellence, given annually to an undergraduate woman in the United States; the Maryam Mirzakhani Fellowship; and a Rhodes Scholarship.

Carine You ’22

Carine You, from San Diego, California, graduated from MIT in May 2022 with bachelor’s degrees in electrical engineering and computer science and in mathematics. Since graduating, You has worked as a predoctoral research assistant with Professor Amy Finkelstein in the MIT Department of Economics, where she has studied the quality of Medicare nursing home care and the targeting of medical screening technologies. This fall, You will embark on a PhD in economic analysis and policy at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. She wishes to address pressing issues in environmental and health-care markets, with a particular focus on economic efficiency and equity. You previously developed audio signal processing algorithms at Bose, refined mechanistic models to inform respiratory monitoring at the MIT Research Laboratory of Electronics, and analyzed corruption in developmental projects in India at the World Bank. Through Middle East Entrepreneurs of Tomorrow, she taught computer science to Israeli and Palestinian students in Jerusalem and spearheaded an online pilot expansion for the organization. At MIT, she was named a Burchard Scholar.

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Three from MIT named 2023 Knight-Hennessy Scholars

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Phd candidate sukrit puri:  all in the family.

New studies show that caste and ethnic identity play an outsize role in how business interacts with government in developing countries  

May 13, 2024 Leda Zimmerman MIT Political Science

“Family firms can be very insular, sticking with old practices and rewarding loyalty to co-ethnic partners,” says PhD candidate Sukrit Puri. There are barriers to outside hires who might bring innovations. “These businesses are often just not interested in taking up growth opportunities,” says Puri. “There are millions of family firms but they do not provide the kind of dynamism they should.”    

Photo by Jonathan Sachs

It’s no news that companies use money to influence politics. But it may come as a surprise to learn that many family-owned firms — the most common form of business in the world — do not play by the same rules. New research by fourth-year political science graduate student Sukrit Puri reveals that “family businesses depart from the political strategy of treating campaign donations as short-term investments intended to maximize profitmaking.”

Studying thousands of such firms in India, Puri finds that when it comes to politics, an important influence on political behavior is ethnic identity. This in turn can make a big impact on economic development.

“If family businesses actually think about politics differently, and if they are the most common economic actors in an economy, then you break channels of accountability between a business and the government,” says Puri. “Elected officials may be less likely to deliver effective policies for achieving economic growth.” Puri believes his insights suggest new approaches for struggling economies in some developing countries. “I’d like to get governments to think carefully about the importance of family firms, and how to incentivize them through the right kinds of industrial policies.”

Pushing past caricatures

At the heart of Puri’s doctoral studies is a question he says has long interested him: “Why are some countries rich and other countries poor?” The son of an Indian diplomat who brought his family from Belgium and Nepal to the Middle East and New York City, Puri focused on the vast inequalities he witnessed as he grew up.

As he studied economics, political science and policy as an undergraduate at Princeton University, Puri came to believe “that firms play a very important role” in the economic development of societies.  But it was not always clear from these disciplines how businesses interacted with governments, and how that affected economic growth.

“There are two canonical ways of thinking about business in politics and they have become almost like caricatures,” says Puri. One claims government is in the pocket of corporations or that at the least they wield undue influence. The other asserts that businesses simply do governments’ bidding and are constrained by the needs of the state. “I found these two perspectives to be wanting, because neither side gets entirely what it desires,” he says. “I set out to learn more about how business actually seeks to influence, and when it is successful or not.”

So much political science literature on business and politics is “America-centric,” with publicly listed, often very large corporations acting on behalf of shareholders, notes Puri. But this is not the paradigm for many other countries. The major players in countries like South Korea and India are family firms, big and small. “There has been so little investigation of how these family businesses participate in politics,” Puri says. “I wanted to know if we could come up with a political theory of the family firm, and look into the nature of business and politics in developing economies and democracies where these firms are so central.”

Campaign donation differences To learn whether family businesses think about politics differently, Puri decided to zero in on one of the most pervasive forms of influence all over the world: campaign donations. “In the US, firms treat these donations as short-term investments, backing the incumbent and opportunistically switching parties when political actors change,” he says. “These companies have no ideology.” But family firms in India, Puri’s empirical setting, prove to operate very differently.

Puri compiled a vast dataset of all donations to Indian political parties from 2003 to 2021, identifying 7,000 unique corporate entities donating a cumulative one billion dollars to 36 parties participating in national and state-level elections. He identified which of these donations came from family firms by identifying family members sitting on boards of these companies. Puri found evidence that firms with greater family involvement on these boards overwhelmingly donate loyally to a single party of their choice, and “do not participate in politics out of opportunistic, short-term profit maximizing impulse.”

Puri believes there are sociological explanations for this unexpected behavior. Family firms are more than just economic actors, but social actors as well — embedded in community networks that then shape their values, preferences, and strategic choices. In India, communities often form around caste and religious networks.  So for instance, some economic policies of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have hurt its core supporters of small and medium-sized businesses, says Puri. Yet, these businesses have not abandoned their financial support of the BJP. Similarly, Muslim-majority communities and family firms stick with their candidates, even when it is not in their short-term economic best interest. Their behavior is more like that of an individual political donor — more ideological and expressive than strategic.  

Engaged by debate

As a college freshman, Puri was uncertain of his academic direction. Then he learned of a debate playing out between two schools of economic thought on how to reduce poverty in India and other developing nations: On one side, Amartya Sen advocated for starting with welfare, and on the other, Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya argued that economic growth came first.

“I wanted to engage with this debate, because it suggested policy actions — what is feasible, what you can actually do in a country,” recalls Puri. “Economics was the tool for understanding these tradeoffs.”  

After graduation, Puri worked for a few years in investment management, specializing in emerging markets. “In my office, the conversation each day among economists was just basically political,” he says. “We were evaluating a country’s economic prospects through a kind of unsophisticated political analysis, and I decided I wanted to pursue more rigorous training in political economy.”

At MIT, Puri has finally found a way of merging his lifelong interests in economic development with policy-minded research. He believes that the behavior of family firms should be of keen concern to many governments.

“Family firms can be very insular, sticking with old practices and rewarding loyalty to co-ethnic partners,” he says. There are barriers to outside hires who might bring innovations.  “These businesses are often just not interested in taking up growth opportunities,” says Puri.  “There are millions of family firms but they do not provide the kind of dynamism they should.”  

In the next phase of his dissertation research Puri will be surveying not just the political behaviors but the investment and management practices of family firms as well. He believes larger firms more open to outside ideas are expanding at the expense of smaller and mid-size family firms. In India and other nations, governments currently make wasteful subsidies to family firms that cannot rise to the challenge of, say, starting a new microchip fabricating plant. Instead, says Puri, governments must figure out the right kind of incentives to encourage openness and entrepreneurship in businesses that make up its economy, which are instrumental to unlocking broader economic growth.

After MIT, Puri envisions an academic life for himself studying business and politics around the world, but with a focus on India. He would like to write about family firms for a more general audience — following in the footsteps of authors who got him interested in political economy in the first place. “I’ve always believed in making knowledge more accessible; it’s one of the reasons I enjoy teaching,” he says. “It is really rewarding to lecture or write and be able to introduce people to new ideas.” 

New chair in agricultural economics reflects couple’s global vision brought home: “Purdue is special in our lives”

• Story by Nancy Alexander
• Photos by Bosch Studios Photography
• May 13, 2024

B ob and Karen Thompson have operated as a team, both throughout their 55-year marriage and in their long-standing commitment to sending Purdue Agriculture students abroad and welcoming international students to their home.

Now the Thompsons are strengthening the international focus of Bob’s former department by endowing the Robert and Karen Thompson Chair in International Agricultural Economics. The couple hopes the position will ensure a leading scholar in an international aspect of the discipline such as trade, development or comparative agricultural policy “to help solidify the commitment to the international focus in the offerings of the department,” he says.

The Thompson Chair is open-ended by design. “As a former dean, I understand that the college has to have the flexibility to respond to greatest needs and opportunities that come along that you never see coming,” Bob says.

Thompson knows about unanticipated opportunities. He grew up in New York state, so close to the Canadian border that the news source in his home was the Canadian Broadcasting Company, which he credits with “more of an international perspective than the average American community would get.”

Despite his emerging interest in international affairs, his options for study abroad were limited. Some local high schools sent students overseas through American Field Service (AFS) programs. “I really wished my little rural high school — I was in a graduating class of 20 — would get an AFS program, but it never did,” he recalls.

Thompson’s focus on agricultural policy emerged as an undergraduate at Cornell University, where he became intrigued by international food issues such as hunger and poverty. He applied for the university’s two study abroad scholarships — and ended up as first runner-up for each of them. Based on his interest, however, officials told him that if he was accepted to another program, Cornell would support him with additional scholarship funds.

Thompson wasn’t selective about his destination. “My first choice was ‘wherever,’” he says.

“Wherever” turned out to be Denmark for his junior year, where he met Karen, then a student in elementary education who grew up on a small farm on the Danish island of Bornholm. The couple maintained a long-distance romance for two years after Bob returned to Cornell and then completed a master’s degree at Purdue.

Shortly after they married in August 1968, the Thompsons went to Laos with International Voluntary Service, a Peace Corps-type program that allowed the two citizens of different countries to serve together, working with local agriculture and home economics extension agents.

Karen immigrated to the U.S. when they returned from Laos in 1970. That summer, they came to Purdue for her to complete her elementary education degree and Bob to begin a PhD program in agricultural economics. After earning her teaching degree in 1971, Karen started a master’s degree in special education.

In summer 1972, the Thompsons went abroad again, this time to Brazil, where Purdue had an institutional strengthening program with the Federal University of Viçosa dating to the 1950s. Bob collected data for his thesis and taught agricultural production economics in Portuguese, while Karen taught the elementary school-age children of Purdue professors on the Viçosa project.

Now a family of three — their daughter, Kristina, was born in Brazil — the Thompsons returned to Purdue in January 1974. At the May commencement, Karen received her master’s degree, and Bob received his PhD and joined the agricultural economics faculty. Their second child, Eric, arrived a year later. As a faculty member, Bob developed a nationally recognized program in international trade and agricultural development.

In 1983, the family moved to Washington, D.C. for a one-year leave that extended to four. There Bob served as a senior staff economist for the President’s Council on Economic Advisers, and later, assistant secretary for economics for the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  

Thompson returned to Purdue as dean of the College of Agriculture in 1987 and was a strong advocate for study abroad.  At the beginning of his tenure, only one student in the College of Agriculture was studying overseas. When he left six-and-a-half years later, 10 percent of agriculture students graduated having had an international experience.

Thompson equates his one year in Denmark, two in Laos and two in Brazil, all within a nine-year time frame, to “a second PhD program.”

Having on-the-ground international experience made me much more effective as a professional doing research in other countries. Agriculture is such a global industry. To be a well-prepared professional in any agricultural occupation requires having a global vision or perspective.” - Bob Thompson

In 1993 Thompson left the dean’s position to return to his passion for developing agriculture and reducing hunger in low-income countries. He became president and chief executive officer of the Winrock International Institute for Agricultural Development; and later moved back to Washington, D.C. to become director of rural development for the World Bank.

In Washington, Karen became volunteer curator of the Smithsonian Institution’s lace collection in its American History Museum. Her mother had taught her the basics of bobbin lace, and over time she honed her skills through training courses in several European countries. In addition to research and writing on lace made in colonial Ipswich, Massachusetts, the only U.S. site of a commercial bobbin lace industry, Karen continues to teach online courses on the technique. 

Thompson’s commitment to study abroad laid the groundwork for the nearly 40 percent of Agriculture students who now graduate having studied abroad in hundreds of wide-ranging programs the college offers through International Programs in Agriculture  (IPIA).

The Thompsons were so passionate about providing international opportunities to undergraduates that they endowed the Robert L. and Karen H. Thompson Scholarship to support students who participate in international study programs in agriculture.

IPIA asks the scholarship recipients to send the couple a postcard from their overseas institution. “Those are so nice to receive,” Bob says. “The comment that you hear most often is that it’s ‘a life-changing experience.’ It certainly was for me.”

Ensuring that agriculture students experience different cultures firsthand is good for Indiana agriculture, Karen adds. “It’s great for the ones who go back on the farms, but for the ones who are hired by agribusiness, the firms want international experience.”

Bob credits Karen for managing family and hosting responsibilities while he taught, conducted research and served in administrative positions. In addition to raising bicultural and bilingual children, the Thompsons regularly welcomed international students and friends to their home. Karen recalls learning to prepare an American Thanksgiving dinner before she had ever had one herself.

“Our children grew up with the American part of the family, the Danish part of the family, but also the international students at Purdue, because they really became our third family, to us and our children,” she says. “And it’s so important for the international students to get to know an American home and family.”

Not surprisingly, the travel bug also bit the Thompsons’ children. Kristina studied in Denmark in high school and college before volunteering with the Peace Corps in Benin and later, in Rwanda with her husband, Tom. The couple currently is assigned to Cotonou, Benin, where she is the Peace Corps’ country program and training director, and Tom teaches in the international school.

Both Eric and his wife, Amy, are Purdue graduates. Eric spent his junior year in Purdue Engineering at a German university and completed graduate study at the Danish Technical University. He now works in human hearing research for the Air Force. Their son is a high school senior, and their two daughters both studied abroad as college students.

“You detect a pattern here?” Bob asks, smiling.

The international perspective that the Thompsons cultivated in their own home has over time changed the College of Agriculture, by broadening student horizons through study abroad, and now, in a new chair in agricultural economics that promises to impact teaching and research.

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