thesis yield management

Statistical and Machine Learning Methods for Crop Yield Prediction in the Context of Precision Agriculture

It is of critical importance to understand the relationships between crop yield, soil properties, and topographic characteristics for agricultural management. This study's objective was to compare techniques to quantify the relationship between soil and topographic characteristics for predicting crop yield using high-resolution data and novel analytical techniques. The study was carried out across seventeen fields managed by a single cash cropping operation in Southwestern Ontario. Multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, and random forests were investigated to identify methods able to relate soil properties and crop yields on a point-by-point basis. Random forests were the most successful at predicting yield with an R-squared value of 0.93. Multiple linear regression was the least successful with an R-squared of 0.46. Machine learning techniques are often limited by their ability to extract meaningful relationships between variables. Thus, cross-validation techniques were applied to test the models and identify significant soil and topographic attributes when predicting yield.

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Lac thesis type, thesis advisor, usage metrics.

• Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling

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THESIS Agricultural Yield Tool

This tool combines the results of a series of idealized crop model simulations with a scenario time series of crop distributions to generate regional and global analyses of crop production, area, yield, fertilizer application, and irrigation, along with spatial maps of these same variables. Currently the tool is set up to work on the output of crop model simulations from CLM4.5 Crop and ISAM for historical climate (1900–2005) and the two future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climates of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006–2100). The tool is generically flexible, however, and can be configured to work with other crop models and climate period outputs if those outputs are arranged in the format of the agricultural yield tool.

The tool's input data is a database of climate model output data for these variations of climate, CO2, and management:

• Model: CLM ISAM
• Period: historical, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5
• Climate: constant, transient
• CO2: constant, transient
• Irrigation: rainfed, all irrigated
• Fertilizer: no fertilizer, U.S. level fertilizer

For the various climate simulations, the tool processes data for the following crops:

Related publications

Levis, S., Badger, A., Drewniak, B., Nevison, C., Ren, X., 2016. CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5. Climatic Change 1–15. DOI:10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9. Meiyappan, P., Dalton, M., O'Neill, B.C., Jain, A.K., 2014. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale. Ecological Modelling, 291, 152-174, DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.027. Ren, X., Weitzel, M., O’Neill, B.C., Lawrence, P., Meiyappan, P., Levis, S., Balistreri, E.J., Dalton, M., 2016. Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS), Climatic Change, 1-15. DOI:10.1007/s10584-016-1791-1.

Released Code & Documentation

• Source code for the second component of this tool (in Fortran) * A user name and password is required to access this repository, register here
• PDF documentation for the agricultural spatial tool

Citation for Model Code

Lawrence P. (2016, December 13) “Agricultural Yield Tool (Version 1)” NCAR THESIS Tools Library. Retrieved from: https://svn-iam-thesis-release.cgd.ucar.edu/agriculture_yield/. DOI: 10.5065/D6JH3JMW.

Back to main THESIS tools page

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JSmol Viewer

Expounding the effect of harvest management on rice ( oryza sativa l.) yield and latent loss based on the accurate measurement of grain data.

Share and Cite

Wang, Y.; Wu, W.; Xu, J.; Wang, Y.; Wu, Z.; Liu, H. Expounding the Effect of Harvest Management on Rice ( Oryza sativa L.) Yield and Latent Loss Based on the Accurate Measurement of Grain Data. Agronomy 2024 , 14 , 1346. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071346

Wang Y, Wu W, Xu J, Wang Y, Wu Z, Liu H. Expounding the Effect of Harvest Management on Rice ( Oryza sativa L.) Yield and Latent Loss Based on the Accurate Measurement of Grain Data. Agronomy . 2024; 14(7):1346. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071346

Wang, Yujia, Wenfu Wu, Jie Xu, Yong Wang, Zidan Wu, and Houqing Liu. 2024. "Expounding the Effect of Harvest Management on Rice ( Oryza sativa L.) Yield and Latent Loss Based on the Accurate Measurement of Grain Data" Agronomy 14, no. 7: 1346. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071346

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Charles Schwab: Losing Ground To Robinhood

• Recent outages at Charles Schwab highlight vulnerability in digital banking and trading platforms, leading to client dissatisfaction and potential financial losses.
• Post-TD Ameritrade merger, Charles Schwab faces challenges integrating platforms, resulting in user frustration and technical issues, driving some clients to Robinhood.
• Charles Schwab's overvalued stock, declining revenue growth, and competitive threats from platforms like Robinhood suggest downside potential and a sell.

Investment Thesis

Recent outages at US brokerage firm Charles Schwab ( NYSE: SCHW ) have revealed what I believe to be a critical vulnerability in their reliability of both digital banking and trading platforms for US retail investors. These incidents include inaccessibility of client accounts for several hours, which has highlighted a growing concern among some of their users on the stability of their online financial portals​​​​.

Since downtimes can lead to disruptions and potential financial losses, it’s not surprising why some of their clients have considered alternative services that appear to offer more reliable access or better customer service during such crises. At the same time, (but not necessarily in response to these disruptions), Robinhood has rolled out an aggressive rewards program aimed at retaining their customer base and attracting clients from competitors (such as Charles Schwab) who are frustrated with service outages and want the potential 3% match Robinhood is offering for some client accounts.

Beyond these recent outages, Charles Schwab has faced significant headwinds over the past year, culminating in a series of financial and operational setbacks. In 2023, the financial services company reported a 48% decline in net new assets and a nearly 50% drop in net income during Q4 2023. Bank deposits also dropped 21% to $290 billion​​.

Adding to their challenges, in August of last year, they announced a major restructuring plan, including lay-offs and downsizing of their corporate office space to save approximately $500 million annually.

Charles Schwab's CEO, during an earnings call, described 2023 as the most challenging year since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, as they are trapped in a financial climate that has seen many similar institutions scrambling to stabilize their operations amid fluctuating market conditions​​.

Given these factors—the technical outages, cost-cutting measures due to restructuring, and customer service issues post-acquisition—investors might view these actions with caution when choosing where to place their investments. I believe these operational challenges and strategic errors lead to my recommendation that Charles Schwab's stock is a sell. The company is losing to Robinhood in my opinion.

Background of TD Merger

In 2019, Charles Schwab announced their acquisition of TD Ameritrade for $26 billion , and completed during COVID in 2020. Charles Schwab’s acquisition was largely driven by declining commission revenues for TD Ameritrade that rendered their business model unsustainable​​. As trading commissions form a considerable part of revenue for brokerage firms, eliminating such fees pressured many in the industry to consolidate to maintain profitability. These commissions originally started to decline quickly in 2019 in response to Robinhood’s no commission fee model.

While the drop in commissions hurt their business model, TD Ameritrade was particularly popular among users for their trading platform, with features that included advanced charting tools and a user-friendly interface that appealed to both novice and experienced traders alike. The Thinkorswim platform, in particular, offered trading tools that were reportedly well-received by the trading community​​.

However, the merger's completion resulted in Charles Schwab deciding to close or rebrand all of TD Ameritrade's platforms. This decision was met with l argely negative reactions from TD Ameritrade's loyal user base. Many appreciated the unique features of their platform, which were not initially replicated on Charles Schwab's offerings​​. The consolidation was part of Charles Schwab's goal to integrate TD Ameritrade’s technology into their platform and align the technological infrastructure and trading tools of both companies.

Charles Schwab's approach was aimed to ensure that former TD Ameritrade clients would continue to have access to familiar trading tools within Charles Schwab's broader service offering. This meant investing in refurbishing the platform that included adopting TD Ameritrade’s core order management systems to improve trade execution speeds.

The ambitious transition brought a share of challenges, particularly the dissatisfaction among users long accustomed to TD Ameritrade's interface. Charles Schwab had to retain the loyalty of these new clients while attempting to streamline the platforms they had to do maintenance on (both the original Schwab platform and the TD platform).

Despite these efforts, the move inevitably led some users to explore other options in the market. It reflected the inherent risks associated with such large-scale integrations in the financial services industry.

Post TD Struggles

TD Ameritrade’s platforms were phased out earlier this year​​. Charles Schwab’s focus post-merger has been on integrating TD Ameritrade’s trading platform, Thinkorswim, into their services. Thinkorswim was highly favored by TD Ameritrade’s clients for their complete trading tools and features​​.

However, the transition to Charles Schwab has been anything but smooth for many of their users. Many users have expressed frustration over the changes, especially those related to the platform's usability and functionality, such as trading interfaces. Clients have lamented the loss of a familiar and efficient trading environment, which was replaced by Charles Schwab's system that some find less intuitive and flexible​.

Adding to this, recent technical issues have also compounded the dissatisfaction. Account outages and the display of inaccurate stock data have sparked widespread complaints, with some users reporting significant difficulties accessing real-time financial information​​. I think such a reaction is inevitable, especially for TD Ameritrade clients who were forced to transition to a platform that they feel was imposed on them without adequate consideration of their needs and financial preferences (as evidenced in Reddit users’ frustrations ).

Charles Schwab's management has recognized the gravity of these issues, with executives admitting to the challenges faced during the integration process and promising enhancements that aim to better serve the combined client base​. The company has laid out a growth strategy that they claim will expand their service offerings, including introducing former TD Ameritrade clients to Charles Schwab’s broader range of services, such as wealth management and advisory services. Charles Schwab projects that the integration could potentially bring an additional $500 billion in assets from the existing TD Ameritrade client base​​. Charles Schwab is also capitalizing on the opportunity to increase revenue through bank lending products and other financial services.

Robinhood Grabbing Accounts

Robinhood ( HOOD )'s customer acquisition trend was in full swing following the transition of TD Ameritrade clients to Charles Schwab's platform. With the complaints about the complexity and usability of their interface, Robinhood reported a considerable influx of new accounts during this period. Robinhood is known for an easy-to-use interface.

Robinhood's aggressive marketing strategy aimed at wealthier clients has also paid dividends. The company rolled out a series of enticing offers to attract these clients, including a 1% match on transferred brokerage accounts to bolster the group’s assets under management. This was highly successful, according to the company, as it made approximately $1.1 billion in account transfers from the start of the promotion in October up through December of 2023 alone. Robinhood saw more than 150 account transfers that topped $1 million each, reflecting the shift of wealthier clients to their platform.

The company also improved their retirement account services by temporarily offering a 3% match on IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers for Robinhood Gold subscribers until April 30th. It was designed to attract clients looking to consolidate their retirement savings into Robinhood's platform. The 3% match applies to any amounts transferred or rolled over to a Robinhood IRA, with the condition that these funds must be maintained in the account for at least five years to retain the full match value. This was a good marketing move to attract competitors’ customers, in my opinion, and assets grew to accompany it. I wrote more about the Robinhood Gold plan last month.

In essence, Robinhood is starting to nibble away at Schwab’s struggles post TD merger. This is all the more reason why I do not think their valuation makes sense.

Charles Schwab's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 22.27 (a “D-” sector relative grade), which is significantly higher than the sector median of 10.16, marking a 119.29% difference. This elevated P/E ratio, which far exceeds both the sector median and Charles Schwab's historical average, suggests that the stock is currently overvalued relative to their earnings capacity compared to their peers​​.

Despite the P/E premium, the company’s revenue growth trajectory shows that while revenue will theoretically return to growth over the next 12 months, but the growth will still be a 43.13% discount to sector median over the next year (this is not a GARP play in my opinion).

Over the last 12 months, the company saw a year-over-year revenue contraction of -12.98% , a stark contrast to the sector's median growth of 4.51%. This decline is mainly attributed to decreasing net interest revenue, which according to the company: "...[was] down 19% from the prior year’s first quarter due primarily to greater use of supplemental funding and lower average interest-earning assets" (10Q). These assets have been under pressure due to the broader economic environment affecting financial institutions​​. While client assets as a whole may be increasing due to rising stock market valuations, losing any client accounts to Robinhood doesn’t help either, as this is one less client they can benefit from in the future.

Looking forward, although analysts project some improvement in earnings per share (EPS), with a forecasted growth of 3.64% in the short term and an optimistic long-term growth rate (3-5 year CAGR) of 25.81%, these expectations are anchored on robust net interest revenue and the company's capability to retain client assets amid competitive pressures​​. I think this future growth may be overly optimistic given the current economic pressures and competitive landscape.

Competitive threats, particularly from emerging fintech platforms like Robinhood, pose significant risks, in my opinion. As I’ve mentioned above, Robinhood has been aggressively capturing market share by offering lower fees and innovative products aimed at both novice and seasoned investors. This competition is likely to intensify in the coming years.

If Charles Schwab’s forward P/E were to align with the sector median, which, I believe, is a plausible scenario given the competitive and operational challenges it faces, this would represent significant downside potential. Specifically, aligning the forward P/E of 22.27 to the sector median of 10.21 indicates a potential price drop of approximately 54%, assuming other factors remain constant.

Bull Thesis

While Charles Schwab's significant asset accumulation and market presence provide a strong foundation, the current valuation and the pressures from decreasing net interest revenue and increasing competition pose significant downside risks. In May 2024 alone, the firm reported net new assets totaling $31.1 billion, marking it as one of their best Mays historically. In addition, total client assets reached a staggering $9.21 trillion, up by 20% from the previous year​. Keep in mind the US stock market is up well over 20% over the last year, so total assets going up is not necessarily indicative of them attracting new assets.

Despite positive asset inflows, I am concerned regarding the company's valuation and future growth trajectory. As I mentioned above, I believe the company's earnings potential relative to their peers​​ is overestimated. Furthermore, the growth that the company is witnessing in client assets and their market position might not be enough to mitigate the risks of declining net interest revenue, which is crucial for their profitability. The expected decrease in Q2 2024 revenue by 1% to 2% relative to the prior quarter will have an anticipated impact, such as lower transactional sweep cash and expected trading volumes.

I think that the growth they are seeing is not enough, and they have downside risks that need to be addressed as soon as possible. Robinhood’s competitive edge will only make this more difficult.

Given the current market, and internal challenges within Schwab, I think the stock appears overvalued. I believe that the company’s stock is a sell because of the current overvaluation as well as the fundamental and operational risks at play, together with tough competition from platforms like Robinhood, the outlook for Charles Schwab is cautious at best. I think there is a real risk of the 54% downside coming to fruition.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of HOOD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Noah Cox (account author) is the managing partner of Noah’s Arc Capital Management. His views in this article are not necessarily reflective of the firms. Nothing contained in this note is intended as investment advice. It is solely for informational purposes. Invest at your own risk.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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3 Millionaire-Maker Tech Stocks That Should Be on Your Radar

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Sectors to watch

While tech stocks in general could do well, there are two sectors in particular to watch. The artificial intelligence (AI) industry is projected to grow significantly, with the global market expected to reach US$1.8 trillion by 2030. Continuous innovation and increasing adoption across various sectors are key drivers of this growth.

Furthermore, the semiconductor sector is crucial for AI and other advanced technologies. Companies making strides in this area, with innovations in optoelectronics and specialty semiconductors , should certainly do well. So, let’s get right into tech stocks supporting this growth.

First up we have Kinaxis ( TSX:KXS ), which specializes in AI-integrated supply chain management software. Their RapidResponse platform helps enterprises manage and optimize their supply chains using AI for data analysis and problem detection. With a robust client list including Merck and Agilent Technologies, Kinaxis is a strong player in the AI sector.

Kinaxis stock reported revenue of $160.9 million in the first quarter of 2024. This beat the consensus estimate of $158.3 million. Their earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.36, surpassing the expected $0.30. This marked a notable improvement from Q1 2023, where revenue was $136.8 million.

For the future, analysts have a consensus price target of $199.44 for Kinaxis, with a high estimate of $225 and a low estimate of $175. The company is expected to continue benefiting from the increasing adoption of AI in supply chain management, driving future revenue and earnings growth.

Celestica stock

Another company due for a boost is Celestica ( TSX:CLS ). Celestica stock is a leader in design, manufacturing, and supply chain solutions for various sectors, including aerospace, defence, healthcare, and industrial. The company leverages advanced technologies, including AI, to optimize its manufacturing processes and supply chains.

For Q1 2024, Celestica reported revenue of US$1.8 billion, up from US$1.8 billion in the same quarter last year. Their net earnings were US$35 million, a slight increase from US$32 million in Q1 2023. But the future looks even brighter.

Celestica stock is expected to continue its steady growth trajectory, driven by its diversified client base and strong demand in sectors like healthcare and defence. The company’s focus on integrating AI into its manufacturing processes is likely to enhance operational efficiencies and drive long-term growth. And with shares up 318% in the last year, it’s certainly a potential tech stock for millions.

OpenText stock

Finally we have OpenText ( TSX:OTEX ), which specializes in enterprise information management solutions, offering AI-powered products for content management, business process management, and customer experience management. The company has a strong market presence with a history of steady growth.

In the most recent quarter, OpenText reported revenue of US$1.2 billion, up from US$1.1 billion in the previous year. Their adjusted earnings per share was US$0.89, exceeding the consensus estimate of US$0.85. Furthermore, its strategic acquisitions and continued focus on expanding its AI capabilities position it well for future growth. Analysts have a positive outlook on the stock, expecting it to benefit from increasing demand for AI-driven enterprise solutions.

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3 Things You Need to Know If You Buy Ultra-High-Yield Annaly Capital Today

• Annaly Capital is a mortgage REIT with a 12%+ dividend yield.
• The company's dividend track record isn't great.
• The company's stock price tends to follow its dividend.
• Motley Fool Issues Rare “All In” Buy Alert

Annaly Capital Management

Annaly Capital has a huge 12%+ dividend yield, but that doesn't magically make it a great income stock.

The first screen that most dividend investors use is often based on dividend yield. The cutoff is normally on the low side, say 4%, so you limit your candidate list to high-yield stocks. However, after some point, higher yields don't necessarily indicate desirable opportunities. That's the case with Annaly Capital ( NLY 0.25% ) and its dividend yield of 12.8%. Sure, that's a huge yield, but you need to understand these three facts before you buy it.

1. Annaly Capital is not your typical REIT

Annaly Capital is a real estate investment trust (REIT), a corporate structure that is specifically designed to pass income on to investors via dividends. Most REITs own physical properties and lease those assets out just like you would if you owned a rental property. The big difference is that REITs generally own institutional level properties, like apartment buildings and warehouses. Mortgage REITs don't do that. Annaly owns a portfolio of bond-like securities that were created by pooling mortgages together. This is drastically different from a property-owning REIT.

For starters, mortgage bonds are traded all day long while properties tend to trade infrequently. That means that the value of mortgage bonds will react quickly to changes in the market, such as rising and falling interest rates, property market dynamics, and mortgage repayment trends. The value of Annaly Capital is basically the value of its mortgage bond portfolio, so good and bad news flows through to the stock price very quickly. If you are an income investor looking for an easy-to-understand, perhaps even boring, dividend stock, Annaly Capital is not going to be for you. You should really spend some time digging into the mortgage space to understand the niche before you step into it.

2. Annaly Capital has a terrible dividend track record

Just because something is complex doesn't inherently mean it is a bad choice. But there is something about Annaly Capital that will very quickly make it a bad choice for most dividend investors. As the chart below shows, the dividend has been highly volatile over time. And the volatility over the past decade has been to the downside.

NLY Dividend Per Share (Quarterly) data by YCharts

Most dividend-focused investors are looking to create a reliable stream of passive income. The goal is often to replace a paycheck in retirement. Buying a dividend that varies wildly over time, let alone one that has been heading lower for a decade, just isn't going to work for most dividend investors. Could the dynamics of the dividend change? Certainly. Are you willing to risk your retirement income betting that the trend changes? Probably not.

3. Annaly's stock price tends to follow the dividend

Now for another chart, this one overlaying Annaly's stock price on the dividend chart from above. Notice how the stock price tends to rise and fall along with the dividend. That's not shocking, since a rising dividend will probably be viewed as a positive development and a falling dividend is likely to be seen as a negative development.

NLY data by YCharts

However, the bigger story for dividend investors is that, over the past decade, Annaly Capital has been something of a double whammy. Not only have investors suffered through dividend cuts, leading to less passive income, but they have also experienced a loss of capital. That's a bad outcome. A very, very bad outcome.

There are better income options

If you were attracted to Annaly because of its huge yield, step back and strongly consider the history here. It is likely you will want to think about other income stocks with better track records. In the REIT space you might want to look at net lease giant Realty Income , casino mogul Vici Properties , or, if you don't mind a turnaround story , EPR Properties . All three have high yields and much better dividend growth prospects than Annaly Capital.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has positions in Realty Income. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Realty Income and Vici Properties. The Motley Fool recommends EPR Properties. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

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