is hypothesis another word for prediction

Hypotheses Versus Predictions

Hypotheses and predictions are not the same thing..

Posted January 12, 2018

Blogs are not typically places where professors post views about arcane matters. But blogs have the advantage of providing places to convey quick messages that may be of interest to selected parties. I've written this blog to point students and others to a spot where a useful distinction is made that, as far as I know, hasn't been made before. The distinction concerns two words that are used interchangeably though they shouldn't be. The words are hypothesis (or hypotheses) and prediction (or predictions).

It's not uncommon to see these words swapped for each other willy-nilly, as in, "We sought to test the hypothesis that the two groups in our study would remember the same number of words," or "We sought to test the prediction that the two groups in our study would remember the same number of words." Indifference to the contrast in meaning between "hypothesis" and "prediction" is unfortunate, in my view, because "hypothesis" and "prediction" (or "hypotheses" and "predictions") mean very different things. A student proposing an experiment, or an already-graduated researcher doing the same, will have more gravitas if s/he states a hypothesis from which a prediction follows than if s/he proclaims a prediction from thin air.

Consider the prediction that the time for two balls to drop from the Tower Pisa will be the same if the two balls have different mass. This is the famous prediction tested (or allegedly tested) by Galileo. This experiment — one of the first in the history of science — was designed to test two contrasting predictions. One was that the time for the two balls to drop would be the same. The other was that the time for the heavier ball to drop would be shorter. (The third possibility, that the lighter ball would drop more quickly, was logically possible but not taken seriously.) The importance of the predictions came from the hypotheses on which they were based. Those hypotheses couldn't have been more different. One stemmed from Aristotle and had an entire system of assumptions about the world's basic elements, including the idea that motion requires a driving force, with the force being greater for a heavier object than a lighter one, in which case the heavier object would land first. The other hypothesis came from an entirely different conception which made no such assumptions, as crystallized (later) by Newton. It led to the prediction of equivalent drop times. Dropping two balls and seeing which, if either, landed first was a more important experiment if it was motivated by different hypotheses than if it was motivated by two different off-the-cuff predictions. Predictions can be ticked off by a monkey at a typewriter, so to speak. Anyone can list possible outcomes. That's not good (interesting) science.

Let me say this, then, to students or colleagues reading this (some of whom might be people to whom I give the URL for this blog): Be cognizant of the distinction between "hypotheses" and "predictions." Hypotheses are claims or educated guesses about the world or the part of it you are studying. Predictions are derived from hypotheses and define opportunities for seeing whether expected consequences of hypotheses are observed. Critically, if a prediction is confirmed — if the data agree with the prediction — you can say that the data are consistent with the prediction and, from that point onward you can also say that the data are consistent with the hypothesis that spawned the prediction. You can't say that the data prove the hypothesis, however. The reason is that any of an infinite number of other hypotheses might have caused the outcome you obtained. If you say that a given data pattern proves that such-and-such hypothesis is correct, you will be shot down, and rightly so, for any given data pattern can be explained by an infinite number of possible hypotheses. It's fine to say that the data you have are consistent with a hypothesis, and it's fine for you to say that a hypothesis is (or appears to be) wrong because the data you got are inconsistent with it. The latter outcome is the culmination of the hypothetico-deductive method, where you can say that a hypothesis is, or seems to be, incorrect if you have data that violates it, but you can never say that a hypothesis is right because you have data consistent with it; some other hypothesis might actually correspond to the true explanation of what you found. By creating hypotheses that lead to different predictions, you can see which prediction is not supported, and insofar as you can make progress by rejecting hypotheses, you can depersonalize your science by developing hypotheses that are worth disproving. The worth of a hypothesis will be judged by how resistant it is to attempts at disconfirmation over many years by many investigators using many methods.

Some final comments.... First, hypotheses don't predict; people do. You can say that a prediction arose from a hypothesis, but you can't say, or shouldn't say, that a hypothesis predicts something.

Second, beware of the admonition that hypotheses are weak if they predict no differences. Newtonian mechanics predicts no difference in the landing times of heavy and light objects dropped from the same height at the same time. The fact that Newtonian mechanics predicts no difference hardly means that Newtonian mechanics is lightweight. Instead, the prediction of no difference in landing times demands creation of extremely sensitive experiments. Anyone can get no difference with sloppy experiments. By contrast, getting no difference when a sophisticated hypothesis predicts none and when one has gone to great lengths to detect even the tiniest possible difference ... now that's good science.

Third and finally, according to the hypothesis that a blog about hypotheses versus predictions will prove informative, the prediction that follows is that those who read and heed this blog will exhibit less confusion about which term to use when. More important, they will exhibit greater gravitas and deeper thoughtfulness as they generate their hypotheses and subsequent predictions. I hope this blog will prove useful. Its utility will be judged by how long it takes to disconfirm the prediction I have just advanced.

David A. Rosenbaum, Ph.D. , is a cognitive psychologist and a Distinguished Professor of Psychology at the University of California, Riverside.

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Difference Between Hypothesis and Prediction

Due to insufficient knowledge, many misconstrue hypothesis for prediction, which is wrong, as these two are entirely different. Prediction is forecasting of future events, which is sometimes based on evidence or sometimes, on a person’s instinct or gut feeling. So take a glance at the article presented below, which elaborates the difference between hypothesis and prediction.

Content: Hypothesis Vs Prediction

Comparison chart, definition of hypothesis.

In simple terms, hypothesis means a sheer assumption which can be approved or disapproved. For the purpose of research, the hypothesis is defined as a predictive statement, which can be tested and verified using the scientific method. By testing the hypothesis, the researcher can make probability statements on the population parameter. The objective of the hypothesis is to find the solution to a given problem.

A hypothesis is a mere proposition which is put to the test to ascertain its validity. It states the relationship between an independent variable to some dependent variable. The characteristics of the hypothesis are described as under:

• It should be clear and precise.
• It should be stated simply.
• It must be specific.
• It should correlate variables.
• It should be consistent with most known facts.
• It should be capable of being tested.
• It must explain, what it claims to explain.

Definition of Prediction

A prediction is described as a statement which forecasts a future event, which may or may not be based on knowledge and experience, i.e. it can be a pure guess based on the instinct of a person. It is termed as an informed guess, when the prediction comes out from a person having ample subject knowledge and uses accurate data and logical reasoning, to make it.

Regression analysis is one of the statistical technique, which is used for making the prediction.

In many multinational corporations, futurists (predictors) are paid a good amount for making prediction relating to the possible events, opportunities, threats or risks. And to do so, the futurists, study all past and current events, to forecast future occurrences. Further, it has a great role to play in statistics also, to draw inferences about a population parameter.

Key Differences Between Hypothesis and Prediction

The difference between hypothesis and prediction can be drawn clearly on the following grounds:

• A propounded explanation for an observable occurrence, established on the basis of established facts, as an introduction to the further study, is known as the hypothesis. A statement, which tells or estimates something that will occur in future is known as the prediction.
• The hypothesis is nothing but a tentative supposition which can be tested by scientific methods. On the contrary, the prediction is a sort of declaration made in advance on what is expected to happen next, in the sequence of events.
• While the hypothesis is an intelligent guess, the prediction is a wild guess.
• A hypothesis is always supported by facts and evidence. As against this, predictions are based on knowledge and experience of the person making it, but that too not always.
• Hypothesis always have an explanation or reason, whereas prediction does not have any explanation.
• Hypothesis formulation takes a long time. Conversely, making predictions about a future happening does not take much time.
• Hypothesis defines a phenomenon, which may be a future or a past event. Unlike, prediction, which always anticipates about happening or non-happening of a certain event in future.
• The hypothesis states the relationship between independent variable and the dependent variable. On the other hand, prediction does not state any relationship between variables.

To sum up, the prediction is merely a conjecture to discern future, while a hypothesis is a proposition put forward for the explanation. The former, can be made by any person, no matter he/she has knowledge in the particular field. On the flip side, the hypothesis is made by the researcher to discover the answer to a certain question. Further, the hypothesis has to pass to various test, to become a theory.

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This is the Difference Between a Hypothesis and a Theory

What to Know A hypothesis is an assumption made before any research has been done. It is formed so that it can be tested to see if it might be true. A theory is a principle formed to explain the things already shown in data. Because of the rigors of experiment and control, it is much more likely that a theory will be true than a hypothesis.

As anyone who has worked in a laboratory or out in the field can tell you, science is about process: that of observing, making inferences about those observations, and then performing tests to see if the truth value of those inferences holds up. The scientific method is designed to be a rigorous procedure for acquiring knowledge about the world around us.

In scientific reasoning, a hypothesis is constructed before any applicable research has been done. A theory, on the other hand, is supported by evidence: it's a principle formed as an attempt to explain things that have already been substantiated by data.

Toward that end, science employs a particular vocabulary for describing how ideas are proposed, tested, and supported or disproven. And that's where we see the difference between a hypothesis and a theory .

A hypothesis is an assumption, something proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested to see if it might be true.

In the scientific method, the hypothesis is constructed before any applicable research has been done, apart from a basic background review. You ask a question, read up on what has been studied before, and then form a hypothesis.

What is a Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is usually tentative, an assumption or suggestion made strictly for the objective of being tested.

When a character which has been lost in a breed, reappears after a great number of generations, the most probable hypothesis is, not that the offspring suddenly takes after an ancestor some hundred generations distant, but that in each successive generation there has been a tendency to reproduce the character in question, which at last, under unknown favourable conditions, gains an ascendancy. Charles Darwin, On the Origin of Species , 1859 According to one widely reported hypothesis , cell-phone transmissions were disrupting the bees' navigational abilities. (Few experts took the cell-phone conjecture seriously; as one scientist said to me, "If that were the case, Dave Hackenberg's hives would have been dead a long time ago.") Elizabeth Kolbert, The New Yorker , 6 Aug. 2007

What is a Theory?

A theory , in contrast, is a principle that has been formed as an attempt to explain things that have already been substantiated by data. It is used in the names of a number of principles accepted in the scientific community, such as the Big Bang Theory . Because of the rigors of experimentation and control, its likelihood as truth is much higher than that of a hypothesis.

It is evident, on our theory , that coasts merely fringed by reefs cannot have subsided to any perceptible amount; and therefore they must, since the growth of their corals, either have remained stationary or have been upheaved. Now, it is remarkable how generally it can be shown, by the presence of upraised organic remains, that the fringed islands have been elevated: and so far, this is indirect evidence in favour of our theory . Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the Beagle , 1839 An example of a fundamental principle in physics, first proposed by Galileo in 1632 and extended by Einstein in 1905, is the following: All observers traveling at constant velocity relative to one another, should witness identical laws of nature. From this principle, Einstein derived his theory of special relativity. Alan Lightman, Harper's , December 2011

Non-Scientific Use

In non-scientific use, however, hypothesis and theory are often used interchangeably to mean simply an idea, speculation, or hunch (though theory is more common in this regard):

The theory of the teacher with all these immigrant kids was that if you spoke English loudly enough they would eventually understand. E. L. Doctorow, Loon Lake , 1979 Chicago is famous for asking questions for which there can be no boilerplate answers. Example: given the probability that the federal tax code, nondairy creamer, Dennis Rodman and the art of mime all came from outer space, name something else that has extraterrestrial origins and defend your hypothesis . John McCormick, Newsweek , 5 Apr. 1999 In his mind's eye, Miller saw his case suddenly taking form: Richard Bailey had Helen Brach killed because she was threatening to sue him over the horses she had purchased. It was, he realized, only a theory , but it was one he felt certain he could, in time, prove. Full of urgency, a man with a mission now that he had a hypothesis to guide him, he issued new orders to his troops: Find out everything you can about Richard Bailey and his crowd. Howard Blum, Vanity Fair , January 1995

And sometimes one term is used as a genus, or a means for defining the other:

Laplace's popular version of his astronomy, the Système du monde , was famous for introducing what came to be known as the nebular hypothesis , the theory that the solar system was formed by the condensation, through gradual cooling, of the gaseous atmosphere (the nebulae) surrounding the sun. Louis Menand, The Metaphysical Club , 2001 Researchers use this information to support the gateway drug theory — the hypothesis that using one intoxicating substance leads to future use of another. Jordy Byrd, The Pacific Northwest Inlander , 6 May 2015 Fox, the business and economics columnist for Time magazine, tells the story of the professors who enabled those abuses under the banner of the financial theory known as the efficient market hypothesis . Paul Krugman, The New York Times Book Review , 9 Aug. 2009

Incorrect Interpretations of "Theory"

Since this casual use does away with the distinctions upheld by the scientific community, hypothesis and theory are prone to being wrongly interpreted even when they are encountered in scientific contexts—or at least, contexts that allude to scientific study without making the critical distinction that scientists employ when weighing hypotheses and theories.

The most common occurrence is when theory is interpreted—and sometimes even gleefully seized upon—to mean something having less truth value than other scientific principles. (The word law applies to principles so firmly established that they are almost never questioned, such as the law of gravity.)

This mistake is one of projection: since we use theory in general use to mean something lightly speculated, then it's implied that scientists must be talking about the same level of uncertainty when they use theory to refer to their well-tested and reasoned principles.

The distinction has come to the forefront particularly on occasions when the content of science curricula in schools has been challenged—notably, when a school board in Georgia put stickers on textbooks stating that evolution was "a theory, not a fact, regarding the origin of living things." As Kenneth R. Miller, a cell biologist at Brown University, has said , a theory "doesn’t mean a hunch or a guess. A theory is a system of explanations that ties together a whole bunch of facts. It not only explains those facts, but predicts what you ought to find from other observations and experiments.”

While theories are never completely infallible, they form the basis of scientific reasoning because, as Miller said "to the best of our ability, we’ve tested them, and they’ve held up."

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• 1.1 Etymology
• 1.2 Pronunciation
• 1.3.1 Synonyms
• 1.3.2 Derived terms
• 1.3.3 Translations
• 2.1 Etymology
• 2.2 Pronunciation
• 2.3.1 Declension

English [ edit ]

Etymology [ edit ].

Recorded since 1596, from Middle French hypothese , from Late Latin hypothesis , from Ancient Greek ὑπόθεσις ( hupóthesis , “ base, basis of an argument, supposition ” , literally “ a placing under ” ) , itself from ὑποτίθημι ( hupotíthēmi , “ I set before, suggest ” ) , from ὑπό ( hupó , “ below ” ) + τίθημι ( títhēmi , “ I put, place ” ) .

Pronunciation [ edit ]

• ( UK ) IPA ( key ) : /haɪˈpɒθɪsɪs/ , /hɪˈpɒθɪsɪs/ , /həˈpɒθɪsɪs/ , /-əsəs/ , /-əsɪs/
• ( US ) IPA ( key ) : /haɪˈpɑː.θə.sɪs/

Noun [ edit ]

hypothesis ( plural hypotheses )

• 2001 September 27, Terrie E. Moffitt, Avshalom Caspi, Michael Rutter, Phil A. Silva, Sex Differences in Antisocial Behaviour: Conduct Disorder, Delinquency, and Violence in the Dunedin Longitudinal Study ‎ [1] , Cambridge University Press , →ISBN , page 151 : This hypothesis goes by many names, including group resistence, the threshold effect, and the gender paradox. Because the hypothesis holds such wide appeal, it is worth revisiting the logic behind it. The hypothesis is built on the factual observation that fewer females than males act antisocially.
• 2005 , Ronald H. Pine, http://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/intelligent_design_or_no_model_creationism , 15 October 2005: Far too many of us have been taught in school that a scientist, in the course of trying to figure something out, will first come up with a " hypothesis " (a guess or surmise—not necessarily even an "educated" guess). ... [But t]he word " hypothesis " should be used, in science, exclusively for a reasoned, sensible, knowledge-informed explanation for why some phenomenon exists or occurs. An hypothesis can be as yet untested; can have already been tested; may have been falsified; may have not yet been falsified, although tested; or may have been tested in a myriad of ways countless times without being falsified; and it may come to be universally accepted by the scientific community. An understanding of the word " hypothesis ," as used in science, requires a grasp of the principles underlying Occam's Razor and Karl Popper's thought in regard to " falsifiability "—including the notion that any respectable scientific hypothesis must, in principle, be "capable of" being proven wrong (if it should, in fact, just happen to be wrong), but none can ever be proved to be true. One aspect of a proper understanding of the word " hypothesis ," as used in science, is that only a vanishingly small percentage of hypotheses could ever potentially become a theory.
• ( general ) An assumption taken to be true for the purpose of argument or investigation .
• ( grammar ) The antecedent of a conditional statement .

Synonyms [ edit ]

• supposition
• educated guess
• See also Thesaurus:supposition

Derived terms [ edit ]

• alternative hypothesis
• aquatic ape hypothesis
• Avogadro's hypothesis
• conspiracy hypothesis
• continuum hypothesis
• cosmic censorship hypothesis
• documentary hypothesis
• efficient market hypothesis
• ergodic hypothesis
• expectations hypothesis
• Fisher hypothesis
• Gaia hypothesis
• generalized continuum hypothesis
• God hypothesis
• Griesbach hypothesis
• hypothesize
• hypothetical
• hypothetically
• interface hypothesis
• just-world hypothesis
• level-ordering hypothesis
• mafia hypothesis
• Medea hypothesis
• Monro-Kellie hypothesis
• null hypothesis
• Omphalos hypothesis
• Out of India hypothesis
• ovulatory shift hypothesis
• permanent income hypothesis
• Prout's hypothesis
• Rare Earth hypothesis
• Red Queen hypothesis
• Riemann hypothesis
• Sapir-Whorf hypothesis
• Schinzel's hypothesis H
• sexy son hypothesis
• simulation hypothesis
• swoon hypothesis
• trickle-down hypothesis
• trickle down hypothesis
• Wellhausen's hypothesis
• working hypothesis
• zombie hypothesis

Translations [ edit ]

Latin [ edit ].

Borrowed from Ancient Greek ὑπόθεσις ( hupóthesis , “ hypothesis ” , noun ) .

• ( Classical ) IPA ( key ) : /hyˈpo.tʰe.sis/ , [hʏˈpɔt̪ʰɛs̠ɪs̠]
• ( modern Italianate Ecclesiastical ) IPA ( key ) : /iˈpo.te.sis/ , [iˈpɔːt̪es̬is]

hypothesis   f ( genitive hypothesis or hypotheseōs or hypothesios ) ; third declension

Declension [ edit ]

1 Found sometimes in Medieval and New Latin.

• There is also genitive plural hypotheseōn .
• The genitive singular is also spelled hypotheseωs and the genitive plural hypotheseωn .

• English terms derived from Proto-Indo-European
• English terms derived from the Proto-Indo-European root *dʰeh₁-
• English terms borrowed from Middle French
• English terms derived from Middle French
• English terms derived from Late Latin
• English terms derived from Ancient Greek
• English 4-syllable words
• English terms with IPA pronunciation
• English terms with audio links
• English lemmas
• English nouns
• English countable nouns
• English nouns with irregular plurals
• en:Sciences
• English terms with quotations
• Latin terms borrowed from Ancient Greek
• Latin terms derived from Ancient Greek
• Latin 4-syllable words
• Latin terms with IPA pronunciation
• Latin lemmas
• Latin nouns
• Latin third declension nouns
• Latin feminine nouns in the third declension
• Latin terms spelled with Y
• Latin feminine nouns
• English entries with language name categories using raw markup
• Requests for translations into Burmese
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[ hahy- poth - uh -sis , hi- ]

• a proposition, or set of propositions, set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena, either asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide investigation working hypothesis or accepted as highly probable in the light of established facts.
• a proposition assumed as a premise in an argument.
• the antecedent of a conditional proposition.
• a mere assumption or guess.

/ haɪˈpɒθɪsɪs /

• a suggested explanation for a group of facts or phenomena, either accepted as a basis for further verification ( working hypothesis ) or accepted as likely to be true Compare theory
• an assumption used in an argument without its being endorsed; a supposition
• an unproved theory; a conjecture

/ hī-pŏth ′ ĭ-sĭs /

, Plural hypotheses hī-pŏth ′ ĭ-sēz′

• A statement that explains or makes generalizations about a set of facts or principles, usually forming a basis for possible experiments to confirm its viability.
• plur. hypotheses (heye- poth -uh-seez) In science, a statement of a possible explanation for some natural phenomenon. A hypothesis is tested by drawing conclusions from it; if observation and experimentation show a conclusion to be false, the hypothesis must be false. ( See scientific method and theory .)

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Derived forms.

• hyˈpothesist , noun

Other Words From

• hy·pothe·sist noun
• counter·hy·pothe·sis noun plural counterhypotheses
• subhy·pothe·sis noun plural subhypotheses

Word History and Origins

Origin of hypothesis 1

Synonym Study

Example sentences.

Each one is a set of questions we’re fascinated by and hypotheses we’re testing.

Mousa’s research hinges on the “contact hypothesis,” the idea that positive interactions among rival group members can reduce prejudices.

Do more research on it, come up with a hypothesis as to why it underperforms, and try to improve it.

Now is the time to test your hypotheses to figure out what’s changing in your customers’ worlds, and address these topics directly.

Whether computing power alone is enough to fuel continued machine learning breakthroughs is a source of debate, but it seems clear we’ll be able to test the hypothesis.

Though researchers have struggled to understand exactly what contributes to this gender difference, Dr. Rohan has one hypothesis.

The leading hypothesis for the ultimate source of the Ebola virus, and where it retreats in between outbreaks, lies in bats.

In 1996, John Paul II called the Big Bang theory “more than a hypothesis.”

To be clear: There have been no double-blind or controlled studies that conclusively confirm this hair-loss hypothesis.

The bacteria-driven-ritual hypothesis ignores the huge diversity of reasons that could push someone to perform a religious ritual.

And remember it is by our hypothesis the best possible form and arrangement of that lesson.

Taken in connection with what we know of the nebulæ, the proof of Laplace's nebular hypothesis may fairly be regarded as complete.

What has become of the letter from M. de St. Mars, said to have been discovered some years ago, confirming this last hypothesis?

To admit that there had really been any communication between the dead man and the living one is also an hypothesis.

"I consider it highly probable," asserted Aunt Maria, forgetting her Scandinavian hypothesis.

Related Words

• explanation
• interpretation
• proposition
• supposition

More About Hypothesis

What is a hypothesis .

In science, a hypothesis is a statement or proposition that attempts to explain phenomena or facts. Hypotheses are often tested to see if they are accurate.

Crafting a useful hypothesis is one of the early steps in the scientific method , which is central to every field of scientific experimentation. A useful scientific hypothesis is based on current, accepted scientific knowledge and is testable.

Outside of science, the word hypothesis is often used more loosely to mean a guess or prediction.

Why is hypothesis important?

The first records of the term hypothesis come from around 1590. It comes from the Greek term hypóthesis , meaning “basis, supposition.”

Trustworthy science involves experiments and tests. In order to have an experiment, you need to test something. In science, that something is called a hypothesis . It is important to remember that, in science, a verified hypothesis is not actually confirmed to be an absolute truth. Instead, it is accepted to be accurate according to modern knowledge. Science always allows for the possibility that new information could disprove a widely accepted hypothesis .

Related to this, scientists will usually only propose a new hypothesis when new information is discovered because there is no reason to test something that is already accepted as scientifically accurate.

Did you know … ?

It can take a long time and even the discovery of new technology to confirm that a hypothesis is accurate. Physicist Albert Einstein ’s 1916 theory of relativity contained hypotheses about space and time that have only been confirmed recently, thanks to modern technology!

What are real-life examples of hypothesis ?

While in science, hypothesis has a narrow meaning, in general use its meaning is broader.

"This study confirms the hypothesis that individuals who have been infected with COVID-19 have persistent objectively measurable cognitive deficits." (N=81,337) Ventilation subgroup show 7-point reduction in IQ https://t.co/50xrNNHC5E — Claire Lehmann (@clairlemon) July 23, 2021

Not everyone drives. They can walk, cycle, catch a train, tram etc. That’s alternatives. What’s your alternative in your hypothesis? — Barry (@Bazzaboy1982) July 27, 2021

What other words are related to hypothesis ?

• scientific method
• scientific theory

Quiz yourself!

True or False?

In science, a hypothesis must be based on current scientific information and be testable.

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Preoperative prediction of surgical complexity using artificial intelligence (AI) in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) can improve outcomes. We hypothesized a model based on preoperative score (POS) (clinical features, laboratory results scores, and abdominal sonography finding scores) and generated weighted intraoperative scores and video analysis scores respectively. The weighted scoring was done by an expert surgeon both objectively and by video analysis, based on difficult intraoperative actions and recognizing those in videos. The weighted scores were generated from non-weighted scores (operating surgeon specific). The scores were then correlated with POS, in a prospective and retrospective manner. A pilot study of 25 patients (17 patients to train the model and eight patients to test the model) from January 2021 to February 2022 was performed to test the hypothesis. It was noted that intraoperative actions were more helpful in difficulty prediction as it was closest to ground truth (reality). Generated non-weighted and weighted scores were derived from the POS; intraoperative score and video analysis score were achieved using a matrix that captured co-occurrence between these parameters. Difficulty predictions were found to be more accurate using generated weighted scores. Significant POSs were identified retrospectively from generated weighted scores using a confusion matrix. Our AI model appears to suggest that using the above model, automated assessment could be useful for the prediction of intraoperative adversity from POS. A large database validation is warranted.

Trial registration number and date of registration: NMC/380 dated: 28/01/21.

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Department of Surgery, Nil Ratan Sirkar Medical College, 138, AJC Bose Road, Sealdah, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700014, India

Riya Agrawal, Saquib Hossain & Utpal De

Centre of Excellence in Artificial Intelligence, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, 721302, India

Hitesh Bisht, Raviteja Sista, Partha P. Chakrabarti & Debdoot Sheet

L 4/9, Phase 3, Dankuni Housing Complex, Hooghly, 712311, Dankuni, WB, India

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Riya Agrawal: data curation.

Hitesh Bisht: methodology, investigation, analysis.

Raviteja Sista: conceptualization, methodology, software validation, writing and editing.

Saquib Hossain: investigation.

Partha P. Chakrabarti: supervision.

Debdoot Sheet: resources, data curation, supervision.

Utpal De: conceptualization, methodology, investigation, resources, writing and editing.

All co-authors have seen and agree with the contents of the manuscript and there is no financial interest to report.

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Correspondence to Utpal De .

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Agrawal, R., Hossain, S., Bisht, H. et al. Artificial Intelligence (AI)–Based Model for Prediction of Adversity Outcome Following Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy—a Preliminary Report. Indian J Surg (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12262-024-04083-0

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Received : 27 March 2024

Accepted : 11 May 2024

Published : 22 May 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s12262-024-04083-0

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Computer Science > Machine Learning

Title: phinets: brain-inspired non-contrastive learning based on temporal prediction hypothesis.

Abstract: SimSiam is a prominent self-supervised learning method that achieves impressive results in various vision tasks under static environments. However, it has two critical issues: high sensitivity to hyperparameters, especially weight decay, and unsatisfactory performance in online and continual learning, where neuroscientists believe that powerful memory functions are necessary, as in brains. In this paper, we propose PhiNet, inspired by a hippocampal model based on the temporal prediction hypothesis. Unlike SimSiam, which aligns two augmented views of the original image, PhiNet integrates an additional predictor block that estimates the original image representation to imitate the CA1 region in the hippocampus. Moreover, we model the neocortex inspired by the Complementary Learning Systems theory with a momentum encoder block as a slow learner, which works as long-term memory. We demonstrate through analysing the learning dynamics that PhiNet benefits from the additional predictor to prevent the complete collapse of learned representations, a notorious challenge in non-contrastive learning. This dynamics analysis may partially corroborate why this hippocampal model is biologically plausible. Experimental results demonstrate that PhiNet is more robust to weight decay and performs better than SimSiam in memory-intensive tasks like online and continual learning.

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