problem solving triangle police

2015 POP Conference Oct 19-21, 2015 Portland, OR

Center for Problem-Oriented Policing

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• » History of Problem-Oriented Policing
• » Key Elements of POP
• » The SARA Model
• « The Problem Analysis Triangle
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The Problem Analysis Triangle

While the SARA model is useful as a way of organizing the approach to recurring problems, it is often very difficult to figure out just exactly what the real problem is. The problem analysis triangle (sometimes referred to as the crime triangle) provides a way of thinking about recurring problems of crime and disorder. This idea assumes that crime or disorder results when (1) likely offenders and (2) suitable targets come together in (3) time and space, in the absence of capable guardians for that target. A simple version of a problem analysis triangle looks like this:

Offenders can sometimes be controlled by other people: those people are known as handlers. Targets and victims can sometimes be protected by other people as well: those people are known as guardians. And places are usually controlled by someone: those people are known as managers. Thus, effective problem-solving requires understanding how offenders and their targets/victims come together in places, and understanding how those offenders, targets/victims, and places are or are not effectively controlled. Understanding the weaknesses in the problem analysis triangle in the context of a particular problem will point the way to new interventions. A complete problem analysis triangle looks like this:

Problems can be understood and described in a variety of ways. No one way is definitive. They should be described in whichever way is most likely to lead to an improved understanding of the problem and effective interventions. Generally, incidents that the police handle cluster in four ways:

• Behavior . Certain behavior(s) is (are) common to the incidents. For example, making excessive noise, robbing people or businesses, driving under the influence, crashing vehicles, dealing drugs, stealing cars. There are many different behaviors that might constitute problems.
• Place . Certain places can be common to incidents. Incidents involving one or more problem behaviors may occur at, for example, a street corner, a house, a business, a park, a neighborhood, or a school. Some incidents occur in abstract places such as cyberspace, on the telephone, or through other information networks.
• Persons . Certain individuals or groups of people can be common to incidents. These people could be either offenders or victims. Incidents involving one or more behaviors, occurring in one or more places may be attributed to, for example, a youth gang, a lone person, a group of prostitutes, a group of chronic inebriates, or a property owner. Or incidents may be causing harm to, for example, residents of a neighborhood, senior citizens, young children, or a lone individual.
• Time . Certain times can be common to incidents. Incidents involving one or more behaviors, in one or more places, caused by or affecting one or more people may happen at, for example, traffic rush hour, bar closing time, the holiday shopping season, or during an annual festival.

There is growing evidence that, in fact, crime and disorder does cluster in these ways. It is not evenly distributed across time, place, or people. Increasingly, police and researchers are recognizing some of these clusters as:

• Repeat offenders attacking different targets at different places.
• Repeat victims repeatedly attacked by different offenders at different places.
• Repeat places (or hot spots) involving different offenders and different targets interacting at the same place.

The Problem Analysis Triangle was derived from the routine activity approach to explaining how and why crime occurs. This theory argues that when a crime occurs, three things happen at the same time and in the same space:

• a suitable target is available.
• there is the lack of a suitable guardian to prevent the crime from happening.
• a motivated offender is present.

Check out the list of readings under the POP Center recommended readings .

El Triangulo de Análisis de Problemas (Triángulo del Delito)

El Triángulo de Análisis de Problemas o más comúnmente conocido como el Triángulo del Delito, proporciona una forma de evaluar y analizar los problemas recurrentes del delito y de la alteración del orden público. Esta idea se fundamenta en que el delito o la alteración del orden público es una consecuencia producida por: (1) La acción o accionar de delincuentes (2) se conduce sobre objetivos adecuados, convenientes o lucrativos (3) se ejecuta en un tiempo y en un lugar determinado, en la ausencia de un protector/guardián competente del objetivo. Una versión sencilla de un triángulo de análisis de problemas se observa de la siguiente forma:

Los delincuentes pueden estar controlados a veces por otras personas; a estas personas se les denomina en el presente modelo como manipuladores. Los objetivos y las víctimas pueden estar protegidos a veces también por otras personas; a estas personas se las define como protectores/guardianes. Los lugares normalmente pueden estar controlados por alguien; a estas personas se las define como administradores/gerentes. De modo que, el desarrollo efectivo de solución de problemas (en nuestro caso problemas delictivos) pasa por entender como los delincuentes y sus víctimas/objetivos convergen en un lugar; también entender como esa convergencia de los delincuentes, las víctimas/objetivos, en unos lugares no está efectivamente controlada. Entendiendo las vulnerabilidades que se observan en el triángulo de análisis de problemas en el contexto de un problema en particular, nos indicará el camino a seguir para desarrollar nuevas formas de intervención. Una versión del triángulo de análisis de problemas completo se presenta y luce de la forma siguiente:

Los problemas delictivos pueden entenderse y describirse en diversas formas. Es importante destacar que ninguna forma es definitiva. Los problemas debieran describirse de forma tal, que facilite su comprensión y que a su vez esta comprensión origine formas efectivas de intervención del problema. Generalmente, los incidentes que la policía maneja se pueden agrupar de estas cuatro maneras:

• Conducta: Algunas conductas son comunes a los incidentes, por ejemplo: Robar a personas comunes o a comerciantes, manejar bajo la influencia de drogas, chocar vehículos, vender drogas ilícitas, robar vehículos. Hay diversas formas de conductas que pueden constituir un problema.
• Lugar: Algunos lugares pueden ser comunes a los incidentes. Incidentes donde se involucran uno o más problemas de conducta pueden ocurrir por ejemplo en: Una esquina, en una casa, en un comercio o negocio, en un parque, en un vecindario o en una escuela. Algunos incidentes pueden ocurrir en lugares abstractos como el ciberespacio, en el teléfono, o a través de otras redes de información.
• Personas: Ciertas personas o grupos de personas pueden ser comunes a los incidentes. Estas personas pueden ser tanto víctimas como delincuentes. Incidentes donde se involucren una o más conductas, que ocurren en uno o más lugares pueden atribuirse a, por ejemplo: Una pandilla juvenil, una persona solitaria, un grupo de prostitutas, un grupo de alcohólicos, o el propietario de una casa. O también, incidentes donde se cause un daño por ejemplo a: Los residentes de un vecindario, a personas ancianas, niños, o a individuos solitarios.
• Tiempo: Algunos tiempos pueden ser comunes a los incidentes. Incidentes donde se involucren una o mas conductas, en uno o mas lugares, causado por o afectando a una o mas personas pueden ocurrir por ejemplo en: La hora pico del tráfico automotor, a la hora de cerrar bares o discotecas, al comienzo de las fechas de las vacaciones Decembrinas/Carnavales/Semana Santa o durante un día de fin de año.

Si bien es cierto que existe una creciente evidencia que indica de hecho, que el delito y las alteraciones del orden público se agrupan en las cuatro áreas descritas previamente, no hay evidencias de que exista una distribución igualitaria entre el tiempo, el lugar o las personas entre los incidentes; lo que si han reconocido de forma creciente las policías y los investigadores, es que las características de los incidentes se pueden agrupar de la siguiente forma:

• Repetidamente los mismos delincuentes atacan diferentes objetivos en diferentes lugares.
• Repetidamente las mismas víctimas son atacadas por diferentes delincuentes en diferentes lugares.
• Repetidamente en los mismos lugares (zonas rojas) interactúan en el mismo lugar diferentes delincuentes en contra de diferentes objetivos.

El Triángulo de Análisis de Problemas fue desarrollado como una actividad rutinaria para enfocar y explicar como y cuando ocurre el delito. La presente teoría argumenta que cuando un delito ocurre, tres cosas convergen a la misma hora y en el mismo lugar:

• Existe un objetivo conveniente/apropiado/lucrativo está disponible.
• No existe un guardián/protector que efectivamente prevenga la ocurrencia del delito.
• Existe un delincuente que está motivado y presente.
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Article Contents

• INTRODUCTION
• BACKGROUND OF POP
• METHODS AND FINDINGS OF THE UPDATED CAMPBELL COLLABORATION POP REVIEW
• MAIN FINDINGS OF THE UPDATED META-ANALYSIS
• WHEN DOES POP WORK BEST?
• LIMITATIONS
• CONCLUSIONS
• APPENDIX A: REFERENCES TO INCLUDED STUDIES (INCLUDING SUPPLEMENTAL PUBLICATIONS)
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When is problem-oriented policing most effective? A systematic examination of heterogeneity in effect sizes for reducing crime and disorder

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Joshua C Hinkle, David Weisburd, Cody W Telep, Kevin Petersen, When is problem-oriented policing most effective? A systematic examination of heterogeneity in effect sizes for reducing crime and disorder, Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice , Volume 18, 2024, paae053, https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paae053

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This article presents results from a systematic review and meta-analysis of problem-oriented policing (POP). The results show an overall 33.8% relative reduction in crime/disorder in treatment groups relative to controls, which adds to evidence that POP is an effective strategy that police leaders should adopt. There is, however, a great deal of variation in effect sizes, and moderator analyses were conducted to examine when POP may work best. Preliminary findings suggest POP may have larger impacts when responses are broader and involve more partner agencies/groups, when more of the agency is involved in the program, and when targeting property crime and disorder. Importantly, our findings also show that shallower implementations of POP still had significant impacts and suggest that POP should be implemented even if an agency cannot initially carry out in-depth problem-solving. Future research should supplement meta-analyses with narrative reviews to further identify what makes POP most effective.

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Mission and History of the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing

The mission of the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing is to advance the concept and practice of problem-oriented policing in open and democratic societies. It does so by making readily accessible information about ways in which police can effectively and equitably address specific crime and disorder problems.

The Center for Problem-Oriented Policing was founded as a private non-profit organization in 2002. In 2015 it became a center at Arizona State University's Watts College of Public Service & Community Solutions, with affiliations with other police practitioners, researchers, and universities dedicated to the advancement of problem-oriented policing.

The work of the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing was principally funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services from 1999 to 2012. Its founders were Michael S. Scott, Ronald V. Clarke, and Graeme R. Newman. Others instrumental in developing the POP Center were Herman Goldstein , John E. Eck , Deborah Lamm Weisel , Rana Sampson , and Karin Schmerler .

Since the publication of the first POP Guide in 2001, millions of copies of the POP guides and other POP Center publications have been distributed to or downloaded by individuals and agencies throughout the world. POP Center materials are also widely used in police training and college courses.

Launched in 2003, the POP Center web site has provided innovative learning experiences, curriculum guides, teaching aids, problem analysis tools, and an immense range of information to its users. 

Design and programming work for the POP Center website from its inception through 2017 was done by staff at the Professional Development Program at the State University of New York at Albany. This work is currently done by the Watts College of Public Service & Community Solutions. 

Michael S. Scott

• Conference Coordinator: Nancy Leach
• Goldstein Award Coodinator and Advisor: Michael Scott

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Co-founders

Ronald v. clarke.

Graeme R. Newman

Graeme R. Newman is Distinguished Teaching Professor Emeritus at the School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany. He has published works in  the fields of the history and philosophy of punishment, comparative criminal  justice, private security, situational crime prevention, and e-commerce crime,   and has written commercial software. He was CEO of a publishing company   for 15 years and in 1990 established the United Nations Crime and Justice Information Network. Among the books he has written or edited are: Superhighway Robbery: Crime Prevention and E-commerce Crime (with Ronald V. Clarke) and Rational Choice and Situational Crime Prevention (with Ronald V. Clarke and Shlomo Shoham). Professor Newman received his bachelor's degree from the University of Melbourne in Australia and his doctorate from the University of Pennsylvania.  

List of POP Center Authors and Their Publications

Original proponent of problem-oriented policing, herman goldstein.

Publications by this Author

The opinions contained herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing or Arizona State University. References to specific agencies, companies, products, or services should not be considered an endorsement by the authors, the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing or Arizona State University.