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How to Write a Great Hypothesis

Hypothesis Definition, Format, Examples, and Tips

Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

Amy Morin, LCSW, is a psychotherapist and international bestselling author. Her books, including "13 Things Mentally Strong People Don't Do," have been translated into more than 40 languages. Her TEDx talk,  "The Secret of Becoming Mentally Strong," is one of the most viewed talks of all time.

Verywell / Alex Dos Diaz

• The Scientific Method

Hypothesis Format

Falsifiability of a hypothesis.

• Operationalization

Hypothesis Types

Hypotheses examples.

• Collecting Data

A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. It is a preliminary answer to your question that helps guide the research process.

Consider a study designed to examine the relationship between sleep deprivation and test performance. The hypothesis might be: "This study is designed to assess the hypothesis that sleep-deprived people will perform worse on a test than individuals who are not sleep-deprived."

At a Glance

A hypothesis is crucial to scientific research because it offers a clear direction for what the researchers are looking to find. This allows them to design experiments to test their predictions and add to our scientific knowledge about the world. This article explores how a hypothesis is used in psychology research, how to write a good hypothesis, and the different types of hypotheses you might use.

The Hypothesis in the Scientific Method

In the scientific method , whether it involves research in psychology, biology, or some other area, a hypothesis represents what the researchers think will happen in an experiment. The scientific method involves the following steps:

• Forming a question
• Performing background research
• Creating a hypothesis
• Designing an experiment
• Collecting data
• Analyzing the results
• Drawing conclusions
• Communicating the results

The hypothesis is a prediction, but it involves more than a guess. Most of the time, the hypothesis begins with a question which is then explored through background research. At this point, researchers then begin to develop a testable hypothesis.

Unless you are creating an exploratory study, your hypothesis should always explain what you  expect  to happen.

In a study exploring the effects of a particular drug, the hypothesis might be that researchers expect the drug to have some type of effect on the symptoms of a specific illness. In psychology, the hypothesis might focus on how a certain aspect of the environment might influence a particular behavior.

Remember, a hypothesis does not have to be correct. While the hypothesis predicts what the researchers expect to see, the goal of the research is to determine whether this guess is right or wrong. When conducting an experiment, researchers might explore numerous factors to determine which ones might contribute to the ultimate outcome.

In many cases, researchers may find that the results of an experiment  do not  support the original hypothesis. When writing up these results, the researchers might suggest other options that should be explored in future studies.

In many cases, researchers might draw a hypothesis from a specific theory or build on previous research. For example, prior research has shown that stress can impact the immune system. So a researcher might hypothesize: "People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than people who have low-stress levels."

In other instances, researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom. "Birds of a feather flock together" is one example of folk adage that a psychologist might try to investigate. The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that "People tend to select romantic partners who are similar to them in interests and educational level."

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

So how do you write a good hypothesis? When trying to come up with a hypothesis for your research or experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

• Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?
• Can your hypothesis be tested?
• Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing background research. Once you have completed a literature review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to the discussion section in the  journal articles you read . Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

How to Formulate a Good Hypothesis

To form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

• Collect as many observations about a topic or problem as you can.
• Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
• Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
• After you have developed some possible hypotheses, think of ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

In the scientific method ,  falsifiability is an important part of any valid hypothesis. In order to test a claim scientifically, it must be possible that the claim could be proven false.

Students sometimes confuse the idea of falsifiability with the idea that it means that something is false, which is not the case. What falsifiability means is that  if  something was false, then it is possible to demonstrate that it is false.

One of the hallmarks of pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

The Importance of Operational Definitions

A variable is a factor or element that can be changed and manipulated in ways that are observable and measurable. However, the researcher must also define how the variable will be manipulated and measured in the study.

Operational definitions are specific definitions for all relevant factors in a study. This process helps make vague or ambiguous concepts detailed and measurable.

For example, a researcher might operationally define the variable " test anxiety " as the results of a self-report measure of anxiety experienced during an exam. A "study habits" variable might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

These precise descriptions are important because many things can be measured in various ways. Clearly defining these variables and how they are measured helps ensure that other researchers can replicate your results.

Replicability

One of the basic principles of any type of scientific research is that the results must be replicable.

Replication means repeating an experiment in the same way to produce the same results. By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated, other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define. For example, how would you operationally define a variable such as aggression ? For obvious ethical reasons, researchers cannot create a situation in which a person behaves aggressively toward others.

To measure this variable, the researcher must devise a measurement that assesses aggressive behavior without harming others. The researcher might utilize a simulated task to measure aggressiveness in this situation.

Hypothesis Checklist

• Does your hypothesis focus on something that you can actually test?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate the variables?
• Can your hypothesis be tested without violating ethical standards?

The hypothesis you use will depend on what you are investigating and hoping to find. Some of the main types of hypotheses that you might use include:

• Simple hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests there is a relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable.
• Complex hypothesis : This type suggests a relationship between three or more variables, such as two independent and dependent variables.
• Null hypothesis : This hypothesis suggests no relationship exists between two or more variables.
• Alternative hypothesis : This hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.
• Statistical hypothesis : This hypothesis uses statistical analysis to evaluate a representative population sample and then generalizes the findings to the larger group.
• Logical hypothesis : This hypothesis assumes a relationship between variables without collecting data or evidence.

A hypothesis often follows a basic format of "If {this happens} then {this will happen}." One way to structure your hypothesis is to describe what will happen to the  dependent variable  if you change the  independent variable .

The basic format might be: "If {these changes are made to a certain independent variable}, then we will observe {a change in a specific dependent variable}."

A few examples of simple hypotheses:

• "Students who eat breakfast will perform better on a math exam than students who do not eat breakfast."
• "Students who experience test anxiety before an English exam will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety."​
• "Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone."
• "Children who receive a new reading intervention will have higher reading scores than students who do not receive the intervention."

Examples of a complex hypothesis include:

• "People with high-sugar diets and sedentary activity levels are more likely to develop depression."
• "Younger people who are regularly exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces."

Examples of a null hypothesis include:

• "There is no difference in anxiety levels between people who take St. John's wort supplements and those who do not."
• "There is no difference in scores on a memory recall task between children and adults."
• "There is no difference in aggression levels between children who play first-person shooter games and those who do not."

Examples of an alternative hypothesis:

• "People who take St. John's wort supplements will have less anxiety than those who do not."
• "Adults will perform better on a memory task than children."
• "Children who play first-person shooter games will show higher levels of aggression than children who do not." 

Collecting Data on Your Hypothesis

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis, the next step is to select a research design and start collecting data. The research method depends largely on exactly what they are studying. There are two basic types of research methods: descriptive research and experimental research.

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as  case studies ,  naturalistic observations , and surveys are often used when  conducting an experiment is difficult or impossible. These methods are best used to describe different aspects of a behavior or psychological phenomenon.

Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods, a  correlational study  can examine how the variables are related. This research method might be used to investigate a hypothesis that is difficult to test experimentally.

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods  are used to demonstrate causal relationships between variables. In an experiment, the researcher systematically manipulates a variable of interest (known as the independent variable) and measures the effect on another variable (known as the dependent variable).

Unlike correlational studies, which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables, experimental methods can be used to determine the actual nature of the relationship—whether changes in one variable actually  cause  another to change.

The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration. It represents what researchers expect to find in a study or experiment. In situations where the hypothesis is unsupported by the research, the research still has value. Such research helps us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one another. It also helps us develop new hypotheses that can then be tested in the future.

Thompson WH, Skau S. On the scope of scientific hypotheses .  R Soc Open Sci . 2023;10(8):230607. doi:10.1098/rsos.230607

Taran S, Adhikari NKJ, Fan E. Falsifiability in medicine: what clinicians can learn from Karl Popper [published correction appears in Intensive Care Med. 2021 Jun 17;:].  Intensive Care Med . 2021;47(9):1054-1056. doi:10.1007/s00134-021-06432-z

Eyler AA. Research Methods for Public Health . 1st ed. Springer Publishing Company; 2020. doi:10.1891/9780826182067.0004

Nosek BA, Errington TM. What is replication ?  PLoS Biol . 2020;18(3):e3000691. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000691

Aggarwal R, Ranganathan P. Study designs: Part 2 - Descriptive studies .  Perspect Clin Res . 2019;10(1):34-36. doi:10.4103/picr.PICR_154_18

Nevid J. Psychology: Concepts and Applications. Wadworth, 2013.

By Kendra Cherry, MSEd Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

2.4 Developing a Hypothesis

Learning objectives.

• Distinguish between a theory and a hypothesis.
• Discover how theories are used to generate hypotheses and how the results of studies can be used to further inform theories.
• Understand the characteristics of a good hypothesis.

Theories and Hypotheses

Before describing how to develop a hypothesis it is imporant to distinguish betwee a theory and a hypothesis. A  theory  is a coherent explanation or interpretation of one or more phenomena. Although theories can take a variety of forms, one thing they have in common is that they go beyond the phenomena they explain by including variables, structures, processes, functions, or organizing principles that have not been observed directly. Consider, for example, Zajonc’s theory of social facilitation and social inhibition. He proposed that being watched by others while performing a task creates a general state of physiological arousal, which increases the likelihood of the dominant (most likely) response. So for highly practiced tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make correct responses, but for relatively unpracticed tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make incorrect responses. Notice that this theory—which has come to be called drive theory—provides an explanation of both social facilitation and social inhibition that goes beyond the phenomena themselves by including concepts such as “arousal” and “dominant response,” along with processes such as the effect of arousal on the dominant response.

Outside of science, referring to an idea as a theory often implies that it is untested—perhaps no more than a wild guess. In science, however, the term theory has no such implication. A theory is simply an explanation or interpretation of a set of phenomena. It can be untested, but it can also be extensively tested, well supported, and accepted as an accurate description of the world by the scientific community. The theory of evolution by natural selection, for example, is a theory because it is an explanation of the diversity of life on earth—not because it is untested or unsupported by scientific research. On the contrary, the evidence for this theory is overwhelmingly positive and nearly all scientists accept its basic assumptions as accurate. Similarly, the “germ theory” of disease is a theory because it is an explanation of the origin of various diseases, not because there is any doubt that many diseases are caused by microorganisms that infect the body.

A  hypothesis , on the other hand, is a specific prediction about a new phenomenon that should be observed if a particular theory is accurate. It is an explanation that relies on just a few key concepts. Hypotheses are often specific predictions about what will happen in a particular study. They are developed by considering existing evidence and using reasoning to infer what will happen in the specific context of interest. Hypotheses are often but not always derived from theories. So a hypothesis is often a prediction based on a theory but some hypotheses are a-theoretical and only after a set of observations have been made, is a theory developed. This is because theories are broad in nature and they explain larger bodies of data. So if our research question is really original then we may need to collect some data and make some observation before we can develop a broader theory.

Theories and hypotheses always have this  if-then  relationship. “ If   drive theory is correct,  then  cockroaches should run through a straight runway faster, and a branching runway more slowly, when other cockroaches are present.” Although hypotheses are usually expressed as statements, they can always be rephrased as questions. “Do cockroaches run through a straight runway faster when other cockroaches are present?” Thus deriving hypotheses from theories is an excellent way of generating interesting research questions.

But how do researchers derive hypotheses from theories? One way is to generate a research question using the techniques discussed in this chapter  and then ask whether any theory implies an answer to that question. For example, you might wonder whether expressive writing about positive experiences improves health as much as expressive writing about traumatic experiences. Although this  question  is an interesting one  on its own, you might then ask whether the habituation theory—the idea that expressive writing causes people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings—implies an answer. In this case, it seems clear that if the habituation theory is correct, then expressive writing about positive experiences should not be effective because it would not cause people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings. A second way to derive hypotheses from theories is to focus on some component of the theory that has not yet been directly observed. For example, a researcher could focus on the process of habituation—perhaps hypothesizing that people should show fewer signs of emotional distress with each new writing session.

Among the very best hypotheses are those that distinguish between competing theories. For example, Norbert Schwarz and his colleagues considered two theories of how people make judgments about themselves, such as how assertive they are (Schwarz et al., 1991) [1] . Both theories held that such judgments are based on relevant examples that people bring to mind. However, one theory was that people base their judgments on the  number  of examples they bring to mind and the other was that people base their judgments on how  easily  they bring those examples to mind. To test these theories, the researchers asked people to recall either six times when they were assertive (which is easy for most people) or 12 times (which is difficult for most people). Then they asked them to judge their own assertiveness. Note that the number-of-examples theory implies that people who recalled 12 examples should judge themselves to be more assertive because they recalled more examples, but the ease-of-examples theory implies that participants who recalled six examples should judge themselves as more assertive because recalling the examples was easier. Thus the two theories made opposite predictions so that only one of the predictions could be confirmed. The surprising result was that participants who recalled fewer examples judged themselves to be more assertive—providing particularly convincing evidence in favor of the ease-of-retrieval theory over the number-of-examples theory.

Theory Testing

The primary way that scientific researchers use theories is sometimes called the hypothetico-deductive method  (although this term is much more likely to be used by philosophers of science than by scientists themselves). A researcher begins with a set of phenomena and either constructs a theory to explain or interpret them or chooses an existing theory to work with. He or she then makes a prediction about some new phenomenon that should be observed if the theory is correct. Again, this prediction is called a hypothesis. The researcher then conducts an empirical study to test the hypothesis. Finally, he or she reevaluates the theory in light of the new results and revises it if necessary. This process is usually conceptualized as a cycle because the researcher can then derive a new hypothesis from the revised theory, conduct a new empirical study to test the hypothesis, and so on. As  Figure 2.2  shows, this approach meshes nicely with the model of scientific research in psychology presented earlier in the textbook—creating a more detailed model of “theoretically motivated” or “theory-driven” research.

Figure 2.2 Hypothetico-Deductive Method Combined With the General Model of Scientific Research in Psychology Together they form a model of theoretically motivated research.

As an example, let us consider Zajonc’s research on social facilitation and inhibition. He started with a somewhat contradictory pattern of results from the research literature. He then constructed his drive theory, according to which being watched by others while performing a task causes physiological arousal, which increases an organism’s tendency to make the dominant response. This theory predicts social facilitation for well-learned tasks and social inhibition for poorly learned tasks. He now had a theory that organized previous results in a meaningful way—but he still needed to test it. He hypothesized that if his theory was correct, he should observe that the presence of others improves performance in a simple laboratory task but inhibits performance in a difficult version of the very same laboratory task. To test this hypothesis, one of the studies he conducted used cockroaches as subjects (Zajonc, Heingartner, & Herman, 1969) [2] . The cockroaches ran either down a straight runway (an easy task for a cockroach) or through a cross-shaped maze (a difficult task for a cockroach) to escape into a dark chamber when a light was shined on them. They did this either while alone or in the presence of other cockroaches in clear plastic “audience boxes.” Zajonc found that cockroaches in the straight runway reached their goal more quickly in the presence of other cockroaches, but cockroaches in the cross-shaped maze reached their goal more slowly when they were in the presence of other cockroaches. Thus he confirmed his hypothesis and provided support for his drive theory. (Zajonc also showed that drive theory existed in humans (Zajonc & Sales, 1966) [3] in many other studies afterward).

Incorporating Theory into Your Research

When you write your research report or plan your presentation, be aware that there are two basic ways that researchers usually include theory. The first is to raise a research question, answer that question by conducting a new study, and then offer one or more theories (usually more) to explain or interpret the results. This format works well for applied research questions and for research questions that existing theories do not address. The second way is to describe one or more existing theories, derive a hypothesis from one of those theories, test the hypothesis in a new study, and finally reevaluate the theory. This format works well when there is an existing theory that addresses the research question—especially if the resulting hypothesis is surprising or conflicts with a hypothesis derived from a different theory.

To use theories in your research will not only give you guidance in coming up with experiment ideas and possible projects, but it lends legitimacy to your work. Psychologists have been interested in a variety of human behaviors and have developed many theories along the way. Using established theories will help you break new ground as a researcher, not limit you from developing your own ideas.

Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

There are three general characteristics of a good hypothesis. First, a good hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable . We must be able to test the hypothesis using the methods of science and if you’ll recall Popper’s falsifiability criterion, it must be possible to gather evidence that will disconfirm the hypothesis if it is indeed false. Second, a good hypothesis must be  logical. As described above, hypotheses are more than just a random guess. Hypotheses should be informed by previous theories or observations and logical reasoning. Typically, we begin with a broad and general theory and use  deductive reasoning to generate a more specific hypothesis to test based on that theory. Occasionally, however, when there is no theory to inform our hypothesis, we use  inductive reasoning  which involves using specific observations or research findings to form a more general hypothesis. Finally, the hypothesis should be  positive.  That is, the hypothesis should make a positive statement about the existence of a relationship or effect, rather than a statement that a relationship or effect does not exist. As scientists, we don’t set out to show that relationships do not exist or that effects do not occur so our hypotheses should not be worded in a way to suggest that an effect or relationship does not exist. The nature of science is to assume that something does not exist and then seek to find evidence to prove this wrong, to show that really it does exist. That may seem backward to you but that is the nature of the scientific method. The underlying reason for this is beyond the scope of this chapter but it has to do with statistical theory.

Key Takeaways

• A theory is broad in nature and explains larger bodies of data. A hypothesis is more specific and makes a prediction about the outcome of a particular study.
• Working with theories is not “icing on the cake.” It is a basic ingredient of psychological research.
• Like other scientists, psychologists use the hypothetico-deductive method. They construct theories to explain or interpret phenomena (or work with existing theories), derive hypotheses from their theories, test the hypotheses, and then reevaluate the theories in light of the new results.
• Practice: Find a recent empirical research report in a professional journal. Read the introduction and highlight in different colors descriptions of theories and hypotheses.
• Schwarz, N., Bless, H., Strack, F., Klumpp, G., Rittenauer-Schatka, H., & Simons, A. (1991). Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61 , 195–202. ↵
• Zajonc, R. B., Heingartner, A., & Herman, E. M. (1969). Social enhancement and impairment of performance in the cockroach.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13 , 83–92. ↵
• Zajonc, R.B. & Sales, S.M. (1966). Social facilitation of dominant and subordinate responses. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2 , 160-168. ↵

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• How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Guide & Examples

How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Guide & Examples

Published on 6 May 2022 by Shona McCombes .

A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested by scientific research. If you want to test a relationship between two or more variables, you need to write hypotheses before you start your experiment or data collection.

Table of contents

What is a hypothesis, developing a hypothesis (with example), hypothesis examples, frequently asked questions about writing hypotheses.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess – it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations, and statistical analysis of data).

Variables in hypotheses

Hypotheses propose a relationship between two or more variables . An independent variable is something the researcher changes or controls. A dependent variable is something the researcher observes and measures.

In this example, the independent variable is exposure to the sun – the assumed cause . The dependent variable is the level of happiness – the assumed effect .

Prevent plagiarism, run a free check.

Step 1: ask a question.

Writing a hypothesis begins with a research question that you want to answer. The question should be focused, specific, and researchable within the constraints of your project.

Step 2: Do some preliminary research

Your initial answer to the question should be based on what is already known about the topic. Look for theories and previous studies to help you form educated assumptions about what your research will find.

At this stage, you might construct a conceptual framework to identify which variables you will study and what you think the relationships are between them. Sometimes, you’ll have to operationalise more complex constructs.

Step 3: Formulate your hypothesis

Now you should have some idea of what you expect to find. Write your initial answer to the question in a clear, concise sentence.

Step 4: Refine your hypothesis

You need to make sure your hypothesis is specific and testable. There are various ways of phrasing a hypothesis, but all the terms you use should have clear definitions, and the hypothesis should contain:

• The relevant variables
• The specific group being studied
• The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis

Step 5: Phrase your hypothesis in three ways

To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in if … then form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the dependent variable.

In academic research, hypotheses are more commonly phrased in terms of correlations or effects, where you directly state the predicted relationship between variables.

If you are comparing two groups, the hypothesis can state what difference you expect to find between them.

Step 6. Write a null hypothesis

If your research involves statistical hypothesis testing , you will also have to write a null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the default position that there is no association between the variables. The null hypothesis is written as H 0 , while the alternative hypothesis is H 1 or H a .

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

A hypothesis is not just a guess. It should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations, and statistical analysis of data).

A research hypothesis is your proposed answer to your research question. The research hypothesis usually includes an explanation (‘ x affects y because …’).

A statistical hypothesis, on the other hand, is a mathematical statement about a population parameter. Statistical hypotheses always come in pairs: the null and alternative hypotheses. In a well-designed study , the statistical hypotheses correspond logically to the research hypothesis.

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The Craft of Writing a Strong Hypothesis

Table of Contents

Writing a hypothesis is one of the essential elements of a scientific research paper. It needs to be to the point, clearly communicating what your research is trying to accomplish. A blurry, drawn-out, or complexly-structured hypothesis can confuse your readers. Or worse, the editor and peer reviewers.

A captivating hypothesis is not too intricate. This blog will take you through the process so that, by the end of it, you have a better idea of how to convey your research paper's intent in just one sentence.

What is a Hypothesis?

The first step in your scientific endeavor, a hypothesis, is a strong, concise statement that forms the basis of your research. It is not the same as a thesis statement , which is a brief summary of your research paper .

The sole purpose of a hypothesis is to predict your paper's findings, data, and conclusion. It comes from a place of curiosity and intuition . When you write a hypothesis, you're essentially making an educated guess based on scientific prejudices and evidence, which is further proven or disproven through the scientific method.

The reason for undertaking research is to observe a specific phenomenon. A hypothesis, therefore, lays out what the said phenomenon is. And it does so through two variables, an independent and dependent variable.

The independent variable is the cause behind the observation, while the dependent variable is the effect of the cause. A good example of this is “mixing red and blue forms purple.” In this hypothesis, mixing red and blue is the independent variable as you're combining the two colors at your own will. The formation of purple is the dependent variable as, in this case, it is conditional to the independent variable.

Different Types of Hypotheses‌

Types of hypotheses

Some would stand by the notion that there are only two types of hypotheses: a Null hypothesis and an Alternative hypothesis. While that may have some truth to it, it would be better to fully distinguish the most common forms as these terms come up so often, which might leave you out of context.

Apart from Null and Alternative, there are Complex, Simple, Directional, Non-Directional, Statistical, and Associative and casual hypotheses. They don't necessarily have to be exclusive, as one hypothesis can tick many boxes, but knowing the distinctions between them will make it easier for you to construct your own.

1. Null hypothesis

A null hypothesis proposes no relationship between two variables. Denoted by H 0 , it is a negative statement like “Attending physiotherapy sessions does not affect athletes' on-field performance.” Here, the author claims physiotherapy sessions have no effect on on-field performances. Even if there is, it's only a coincidence.

2. Alternative hypothesis

Considered to be the opposite of a null hypothesis, an alternative hypothesis is donated as H1 or Ha. It explicitly states that the dependent variable affects the independent variable. A good  alternative hypothesis example is “Attending physiotherapy sessions improves athletes' on-field performance.” or “Water evaporates at 100 °C. ” The alternative hypothesis further branches into directional and non-directional.

• Directional hypothesis: A hypothesis that states the result would be either positive or negative is called directional hypothesis. It accompanies H1 with either the ‘<' or ‘>' sign.
• Non-directional hypothesis: A non-directional hypothesis only claims an effect on the dependent variable. It does not clarify whether the result would be positive or negative. The sign for a non-directional hypothesis is ‘≠.'

3. Simple hypothesis

A simple hypothesis is a statement made to reflect the relation between exactly two variables. One independent and one dependent. Consider the example, “Smoking is a prominent cause of lung cancer." The dependent variable, lung cancer, is dependent on the independent variable, smoking.

4. Complex hypothesis

In contrast to a simple hypothesis, a complex hypothesis implies the relationship between multiple independent and dependent variables. For instance, “Individuals who eat more fruits tend to have higher immunity, lesser cholesterol, and high metabolism.” The independent variable is eating more fruits, while the dependent variables are higher immunity, lesser cholesterol, and high metabolism.

5. Associative and casual hypothesis

Associative and casual hypotheses don't exhibit how many variables there will be. They define the relationship between the variables. In an associative hypothesis, changing any one variable, dependent or independent, affects others. In a casual hypothesis, the independent variable directly affects the dependent.

6. Empirical hypothesis

Also referred to as the working hypothesis, an empirical hypothesis claims a theory's validation via experiments and observation. This way, the statement appears justifiable and different from a wild guess.

Say, the hypothesis is “Women who take iron tablets face a lesser risk of anemia than those who take vitamin B12.” This is an example of an empirical hypothesis where the researcher  the statement after assessing a group of women who take iron tablets and charting the findings.

7. Statistical hypothesis

The point of a statistical hypothesis is to test an already existing hypothesis by studying a population sample. Hypothesis like “44% of the Indian population belong in the age group of 22-27.” leverage evidence to prove or disprove a particular statement.

Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

Writing a hypothesis is essential as it can make or break your research for you. That includes your chances of getting published in a journal. So when you're designing one, keep an eye out for these pointers:

• A research hypothesis has to be simple yet clear to look justifiable enough.
• It has to be testable — your research would be rendered pointless if too far-fetched into reality or limited by technology.
• It has to be precise about the results —what you are trying to do and achieve through it should come out in your hypothesis.
• A research hypothesis should be self-explanatory, leaving no doubt in the reader's mind.
• If you are developing a relational hypothesis, you need to include the variables and establish an appropriate relationship among them.
• A hypothesis must keep and reflect the scope for further investigations and experiments.

Separating a Hypothesis from a Prediction

Outside of academia, hypothesis and prediction are often used interchangeably. In research writing, this is not only confusing but also incorrect. And although a hypothesis and prediction are guesses at their core, there are many differences between them.

A hypothesis is an educated guess or even a testable prediction validated through research. It aims to analyze the gathered evidence and facts to define a relationship between variables and put forth a logical explanation behind the nature of events.

Predictions are assumptions or expected outcomes made without any backing evidence. They are more fictionally inclined regardless of where they originate from.

For this reason, a hypothesis holds much more weight than a prediction. It sticks to the scientific method rather than pure guesswork. "Planets revolve around the Sun." is an example of a hypothesis as it is previous knowledge and observed trends. Additionally, we can test it through the scientific method.

Whereas "COVID-19 will be eradicated by 2030." is a prediction. Even though it results from past trends, we can't prove or disprove it. So, the only way this gets validated is to wait and watch if COVID-19 cases end by 2030.

Finally, How to Write a Hypothesis

Quick tips on writing a hypothesis

1.  Be clear about your research question

A hypothesis should instantly address the research question or the problem statement. To do so, you need to ask a question. Understand the constraints of your undertaken research topic and then formulate a simple and topic-centric problem. Only after that can you develop a hypothesis and further test for evidence.

2. Carry out a recce

Once you have your research's foundation laid out, it would be best to conduct preliminary research. Go through previous theories, academic papers, data, and experiments before you start curating your research hypothesis. It will give you an idea of your hypothesis's viability or originality.

Making use of references from relevant research papers helps draft a good research hypothesis. SciSpace Discover offers a repository of over 270 million research papers to browse through and gain a deeper understanding of related studies on a particular topic. Additionally, you can use SciSpace Copilot , your AI research assistant, for reading any lengthy research paper and getting a more summarized context of it. A hypothesis can be formed after evaluating many such summarized research papers. Copilot also offers explanations for theories and equations, explains paper in simplified version, allows you to highlight any text in the paper or clip math equations and tables and provides a deeper, clear understanding of what is being said. This can improve the hypothesis by helping you identify potential research gaps.

3. Create a 3-dimensional hypothesis

Variables are an essential part of any reasonable hypothesis. So, identify your independent and dependent variable(s) and form a correlation between them. The ideal way to do this is to write the hypothetical assumption in the ‘if-then' form. If you use this form, make sure that you state the predefined relationship between the variables.

In another way, you can choose to present your hypothesis as a comparison between two variables. Here, you must specify the difference you expect to observe in the results.

4. Write the first draft

Now that everything is in place, it's time to write your hypothesis. For starters, create the first draft. In this version, write what you expect to find from your research.

Clearly separate your independent and dependent variables and the link between them. Don't fixate on syntax at this stage. The goal is to ensure your hypothesis addresses the issue.

5. Proof your hypothesis

After preparing the first draft of your hypothesis, you need to inspect it thoroughly. It should tick all the boxes, like being concise, straightforward, relevant, and accurate. Your final hypothesis has to be well-structured as well.

Research projects are an exciting and crucial part of being a scholar. And once you have your research question, you need a great hypothesis to begin conducting research. Thus, knowing how to write a hypothesis is very important.

Now that you have a firmer grasp on what a good hypothesis constitutes, the different kinds there are, and what process to follow, you will find it much easier to write your hypothesis, which ultimately helps your research.

Now it's easier than ever to streamline your research workflow with SciSpace Discover . Its integrated, comprehensive end-to-end platform for research allows scholars to easily discover, write and publish their research and fosters collaboration.

It includes everything you need, including a repository of over 270 million research papers across disciplines, SEO-optimized summaries and public profiles to show your expertise and experience.

If you found these tips on writing a research hypothesis useful, head over to our blog on Statistical Hypothesis Testing to learn about the top researchers, papers, and institutions in this domain.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. what is the definition of hypothesis.

According to the Oxford dictionary, a hypothesis is defined as “An idea or explanation of something that is based on a few known facts, but that has not yet been proved to be true or correct”.

2. What is an example of hypothesis?

The hypothesis is a statement that proposes a relationship between two or more variables. An example: "If we increase the number of new users who join our platform by 25%, then we will see an increase in revenue."

3. What is an example of null hypothesis?

A null hypothesis is a statement that there is no relationship between two variables. The null hypothesis is written as H0. The null hypothesis states that there is no effect. For example, if you're studying whether or not a particular type of exercise increases strength, your null hypothesis will be "there is no difference in strength between people who exercise and people who don't."

4. What are the types of research?

• Fundamental research

• Applied research

• Qualitative research

• Quantitative research

• Mixed research

• Exploratory research

• Longitudinal research

• Cross-sectional research

• Field research

• Laboratory research

• Fixed research

• Flexible research

• Action research

• Policy research

• Classification research

• Comparative research

• Causal research

• Inductive research

• Deductive research

5. How to write a hypothesis?

• Your hypothesis should be able to predict the relationship and outcome.

• Avoid wordiness by keeping it simple and brief.

• Your hypothesis should contain observable and testable outcomes.

• Your hypothesis should be relevant to the research question.

6. What are the 2 types of hypothesis?

• Null hypotheses are used to test the claim that "there is no difference between two groups of data".

• Alternative hypotheses test the claim that "there is a difference between two data groups".

7. Difference between research question and research hypothesis?

A research question is a broad, open-ended question you will try to answer through your research. A hypothesis is a statement based on prior research or theory that you expect to be true due to your study. Example - Research question: What are the factors that influence the adoption of the new technology? Research hypothesis: There is a positive relationship between age, education and income level with the adoption of the new technology.

8. What is plural for hypothesis?

The plural of hypothesis is hypotheses. Here's an example of how it would be used in a statement, "Numerous well-considered hypotheses are presented in this part, and they are supported by tables and figures that are well-illustrated."

9. What is the red queen hypothesis?

The red queen hypothesis in evolutionary biology states that species must constantly evolve to avoid extinction because if they don't, they will be outcompeted by other species that are evolving. Leigh Van Valen first proposed it in 1973; since then, it has been tested and substantiated many times.

10. Who is known as the father of null hypothesis?

The father of the null hypothesis is Sir Ronald Fisher. He published a paper in 1925 that introduced the concept of null hypothesis testing, and he was also the first to use the term itself.

11. When to reject null hypothesis?

You need to find a significant difference between your two populations to reject the null hypothesis. You can determine that by running statistical tests such as an independent sample t-test or a dependent sample t-test. You should reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than 0.05.

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What is and How to Write a Good Hypothesis in Research?

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Table of Contents

One of the most important aspects of conducting research is constructing a strong hypothesis. But what makes a hypothesis in research effective? In this article, we’ll look at the difference between a hypothesis and a research question, as well as the elements of a good hypothesis in research. We’ll also include some examples of effective hypotheses, and what pitfalls to avoid.

What is a Hypothesis in Research?

Simply put, a hypothesis is a research question that also includes the predicted or expected result of the research. Without a hypothesis, there can be no basis for a scientific or research experiment. As such, it is critical that you carefully construct your hypothesis by being deliberate and thorough, even before you set pen to paper. Unless your hypothesis is clearly and carefully constructed, any flaw can have an adverse, and even grave, effect on the quality of your experiment and its subsequent results.

Research Question vs Hypothesis

It’s easy to confuse research questions with hypotheses, and vice versa. While they’re both critical to the Scientific Method, they have very specific differences. Primarily, a research question, just like a hypothesis, is focused and concise. But a hypothesis includes a prediction based on the proposed research, and is designed to forecast the relationship of and between two (or more) variables. Research questions are open-ended, and invite debate and discussion, while hypotheses are closed, e.g. “The relationship between A and B will be C.”

A hypothesis is generally used if your research topic is fairly well established, and you are relatively certain about the relationship between the variables that will be presented in your research. Since a hypothesis is ideally suited for experimental studies, it will, by its very existence, affect the design of your experiment. The research question is typically used for new topics that have not yet been researched extensively. Here, the relationship between different variables is less known. There is no prediction made, but there may be variables explored. The research question can be casual in nature, simply trying to understand if a relationship even exists, descriptive or comparative.

How to Write Hypothesis in Research

Writing an effective hypothesis starts before you even begin to type. Like any task, preparation is key, so you start first by conducting research yourself, and reading all you can about the topic that you plan to research. From there, you’ll gain the knowledge you need to understand where your focus within the topic will lie.

Remember that a hypothesis is a prediction of the relationship that exists between two or more variables. Your job is to write a hypothesis, and design the research, to “prove” whether or not your prediction is correct. A common pitfall is to use judgments that are subjective and inappropriate for the construction of a hypothesis. It’s important to keep the focus and language of your hypothesis objective.

An effective hypothesis in research is clearly and concisely written, and any terms or definitions clarified and defined. Specific language must also be used to avoid any generalities or assumptions.

Use the following points as a checklist to evaluate the effectiveness of your research hypothesis:

• Predicts the relationship and outcome
• Simple and concise – avoid wordiness
• Clear with no ambiguity or assumptions about the readers’ knowledge
• Observable and testable results
• Relevant and specific to the research question or problem

Research Hypothesis Example

Perhaps the best way to evaluate whether or not your hypothesis is effective is to compare it to those of your colleagues in the field. There is no need to reinvent the wheel when it comes to writing a powerful research hypothesis. As you’re reading and preparing your hypothesis, you’ll also read other hypotheses. These can help guide you on what works, and what doesn’t, when it comes to writing a strong research hypothesis.

Here are a few generic examples to get you started.

Eating an apple each day, after the age of 60, will result in a reduction of frequency of physician visits.

Budget airlines are more likely to receive more customer complaints. A budget airline is defined as an airline that offers lower fares and fewer amenities than a traditional full-service airline. (Note that the term “budget airline” is included in the hypothesis.

Workplaces that offer flexible working hours report higher levels of employee job satisfaction than workplaces with fixed hours.

Each of the above examples are specific, observable and measurable, and the statement of prediction can be verified or shown to be false by utilizing standard experimental practices. It should be noted, however, that often your hypothesis will change as your research progresses.

Language Editing Plus

Elsevier’s Language Editing Plus service can help ensure that your research hypothesis is well-designed, and articulates your research and conclusions. Our most comprehensive editing package, you can count on a thorough language review by native-English speakers who are PhDs or PhD candidates. We’ll check for effective logic and flow of your manuscript, as well as document formatting for your chosen journal, reference checks, and much more.

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Research Hypothesis In Psychology: Types, & Examples

Saul Mcleod, PhD

Editor-in-Chief for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MRes, PhD, University of Manchester

Saul Mcleod, PhD., is a qualified psychology teacher with over 18 years of experience in further and higher education. He has been published in peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Clinical Psychology.

Learn about our Editorial Process

Olivia Guy-Evans, MSc

Associate Editor for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MSc Psychology of Education

Olivia Guy-Evans is a writer and associate editor for Simply Psychology. She has previously worked in healthcare and educational sectors.

On This Page:

A research hypothesis, in its plural form “hypotheses,” is a specific, testable prediction about the anticipated results of a study, established at its outset. It is a key component of the scientific method .

Hypotheses connect theory to data and guide the research process towards expanding scientific understanding

Some key points about hypotheses:

• A hypothesis expresses an expected pattern or relationship. It connects the variables under investigation.
• It is stated in clear, precise terms before any data collection or analysis occurs. This makes the hypothesis testable.
• A hypothesis must be falsifiable. It should be possible, even if unlikely in practice, to collect data that disconfirms rather than supports the hypothesis.
• Hypotheses guide research. Scientists design studies to explicitly evaluate hypotheses about how nature works.
• For a hypothesis to be valid, it must be testable against empirical evidence. The evidence can then confirm or disprove the testable predictions.
• Hypotheses are informed by background knowledge and observation, but go beyond what is already known to propose an explanation of how or why something occurs.

Predictions typically arise from a thorough knowledge of the research literature, curiosity about real-world problems or implications, and integrating this to advance theory. They build on existing literature while providing new insight.

Types of Research Hypotheses

Alternative hypothesis.

The research hypothesis is often called the alternative or experimental hypothesis in experimental research.

It typically suggests a potential relationship between two key variables: the independent variable, which the researcher manipulates, and the dependent variable, which is measured based on those changes.

The alternative hypothesis states a relationship exists between the two variables being studied (one variable affects the other).

A hypothesis is a testable statement or prediction about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a key component of the scientific method. Some key points about hypotheses:

• Important hypotheses lead to predictions that can be tested empirically. The evidence can then confirm or disprove the testable predictions.

In summary, a hypothesis is a precise, testable statement of what researchers expect to happen in a study and why. Hypotheses connect theory to data and guide the research process towards expanding scientific understanding.

An experimental hypothesis predicts what change(s) will occur in the dependent variable when the independent variable is manipulated.

It states that the results are not due to chance and are significant in supporting the theory being investigated.

The alternative hypothesis can be directional, indicating a specific direction of the effect, or non-directional, suggesting a difference without specifying its nature. It’s what researchers aim to support or demonstrate through their study.

Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis states no relationship exists between the two variables being studied (one variable does not affect the other). There will be no changes in the dependent variable due to manipulating the independent variable.

It states results are due to chance and are not significant in supporting the idea being investigated.

The null hypothesis, positing no effect or relationship, is a foundational contrast to the research hypothesis in scientific inquiry. It establishes a baseline for statistical testing, promoting objectivity by initiating research from a neutral stance.

Many statistical methods are tailored to test the null hypothesis, determining the likelihood of observed results if no true effect exists.

This dual-hypothesis approach provides clarity, ensuring that research intentions are explicit, and fosters consistency across scientific studies, enhancing the standardization and interpretability of research outcomes.

Nondirectional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis, also known as a two-tailed hypothesis, predicts that there is a difference or relationship between two variables but does not specify the direction of this relationship.

It merely indicates that a change or effect will occur without predicting which group will have higher or lower values.

For example, “There is a difference in performance between Group A and Group B” is a non-directional hypothesis.

Directional Hypothesis

A directional (one-tailed) hypothesis predicts the nature of the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. It predicts in which direction the change will take place. (i.e., greater, smaller, less, more)

It specifies whether one variable is greater, lesser, or different from another, rather than just indicating that there’s a difference without specifying its nature.

For example, “Exercise increases weight loss” is a directional hypothesis.

Falsifiability

The Falsification Principle, proposed by Karl Popper , is a way of demarcating science from non-science. It suggests that for a theory or hypothesis to be considered scientific, it must be testable and irrefutable.

Falsifiability emphasizes that scientific claims shouldn’t just be confirmable but should also have the potential to be proven wrong.

It means that there should exist some potential evidence or experiment that could prove the proposition false.

However many confirming instances exist for a theory, it only takes one counter observation to falsify it. For example, the hypothesis that “all swans are white,” can be falsified by observing a black swan.

For Popper, science should attempt to disprove a theory rather than attempt to continually provide evidence to support a research hypothesis.

Can a Hypothesis be Proven?

Hypotheses make probabilistic predictions. They state the expected outcome if a particular relationship exists. However, a study result supporting a hypothesis does not definitively prove it is true.

All studies have limitations. There may be unknown confounding factors or issues that limit the certainty of conclusions. Additional studies may yield different results.

In science, hypotheses can realistically only be supported with some degree of confidence, not proven. The process of science is to incrementally accumulate evidence for and against hypothesized relationships in an ongoing pursuit of better models and explanations that best fit the empirical data. But hypotheses remain open to revision and rejection if that is where the evidence leads.

• Disproving a hypothesis is definitive. Solid disconfirmatory evidence will falsify a hypothesis and require altering or discarding it based on the evidence.
• However, confirming evidence is always open to revision. Other explanations may account for the same results, and additional or contradictory evidence may emerge over time.

We can never 100% prove the alternative hypothesis. Instead, we see if we can disprove, or reject the null hypothesis.

If we reject the null hypothesis, this doesn’t mean that our alternative hypothesis is correct but does support the alternative/experimental hypothesis.

Upon analysis of the results, an alternative hypothesis can be rejected or supported, but it can never be proven to be correct. We must avoid any reference to results proving a theory as this implies 100% certainty, and there is always a chance that evidence may exist which could refute a theory.

How to Write a Hypothesis

• Identify variables . The researcher manipulates the independent variable and the dependent variable is the measured outcome.
• Operationalized the variables being investigated . Operationalization of a hypothesis refers to the process of making the variables physically measurable or testable, e.g. if you are about to study aggression, you might count the number of punches given by participants.
• Decide on a direction for your prediction . If there is evidence in the literature to support a specific effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable, write a directional (one-tailed) hypothesis. If there are limited or ambiguous findings in the literature regarding the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable, write a non-directional (two-tailed) hypothesis.
• Make it Testable : Ensure your hypothesis can be tested through experimentation or observation. It should be possible to prove it false (principle of falsifiability).
• Clear & concise language . A strong hypothesis is concise (typically one to two sentences long), and formulated using clear and straightforward language, ensuring it’s easily understood and testable.

Consider a hypothesis many teachers might subscribe to: students work better on Monday morning than on Friday afternoon (IV=Day, DV= Standard of work).

Now, if we decide to study this by giving the same group of students a lesson on a Monday morning and a Friday afternoon and then measuring their immediate recall of the material covered in each session, we would end up with the following:

• The alternative hypothesis states that students will recall significantly more information on a Monday morning than on a Friday afternoon.
• The null hypothesis states that there will be no significant difference in the amount recalled on a Monday morning compared to a Friday afternoon. Any difference will be due to chance or confounding factors.

More Examples

• Memory : Participants exposed to classical music during study sessions will recall more items from a list than those who studied in silence.
• Social Psychology : Individuals who frequently engage in social media use will report higher levels of perceived social isolation compared to those who use it infrequently.
• Developmental Psychology : Children who engage in regular imaginative play have better problem-solving skills than those who don’t.
• Clinical Psychology : Cognitive-behavioral therapy will be more effective in reducing symptoms of anxiety over a 6-month period compared to traditional talk therapy.
• Cognitive Psychology : Individuals who multitask between various electronic devices will have shorter attention spans on focused tasks than those who single-task.
• Health Psychology : Patients who practice mindfulness meditation will experience lower levels of chronic pain compared to those who don’t meditate.
• Organizational Psychology : Employees in open-plan offices will report higher levels of stress than those in private offices.
• Behavioral Psychology : Rats rewarded with food after pressing a lever will press it more frequently than rats who receive no reward.

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Hypothesis Testing | A Step-by-Step Guide with Easy Examples

Published on November 8, 2019 by Rebecca Bevans . Revised on June 22, 2023.

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics . It is most often used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses, that arise from theories.

There are 5 main steps in hypothesis testing:

• State your research hypothesis as a null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis (H o ) and (H a  or H 1 ).
• Collect data in a way designed to test the hypothesis.
• Perform an appropriate statistical test .
• Decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis.
• Present the findings in your results and discussion section.

Though the specific details might vary, the procedure you will use when testing a hypothesis will always follow some version of these steps.

Table of contents

Step 1: state your null and alternate hypothesis, step 2: collect data, step 3: perform a statistical test, step 4: decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis, step 5: present your findings, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about hypothesis testing.

After developing your initial research hypothesis (the prediction that you want to investigate), it is important to restate it as a null (H o ) and alternate (H a ) hypothesis so that you can test it mathematically.

The alternate hypothesis is usually your initial hypothesis that predicts a relationship between variables. The null hypothesis is a prediction of no relationship between the variables you are interested in.

• H 0 : Men are, on average, not taller than women. H a : Men are, on average, taller than women.

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For a statistical test to be valid , it is important to perform sampling and collect data in a way that is designed to test your hypothesis. If your data are not representative, then you cannot make statistical inferences about the population you are interested in.

There are a variety of statistical tests available, but they are all based on the comparison of within-group variance (how spread out the data is within a category) versus between-group variance (how different the categories are from one another).

If the between-group variance is large enough that there is little or no overlap between groups, then your statistical test will reflect that by showing a low p -value . This means it is unlikely that the differences between these groups came about by chance.

Alternatively, if there is high within-group variance and low between-group variance, then your statistical test will reflect that with a high p -value. This means it is likely that any difference you measure between groups is due to chance.

Your choice of statistical test will be based on the type of variables and the level of measurement of your collected data .

• an estimate of the difference in average height between the two groups.
• a p -value showing how likely you are to see this difference if the null hypothesis of no difference is true.

Based on the outcome of your statistical test, you will have to decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis.

In most cases you will use the p -value generated by your statistical test to guide your decision. And in most cases, your predetermined level of significance for rejecting the null hypothesis will be 0.05 – that is, when there is a less than 5% chance that you would see these results if the null hypothesis were true.

In some cases, researchers choose a more conservative level of significance, such as 0.01 (1%). This minimizes the risk of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis ( Type I error ).

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The results of hypothesis testing will be presented in the results and discussion sections of your research paper , dissertation or thesis .

In the results section you should give a brief summary of the data and a summary of the results of your statistical test (for example, the estimated difference between group means and associated p -value). In the discussion , you can discuss whether your initial hypothesis was supported by your results or not.

In the formal language of hypothesis testing, we talk about rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis. You will probably be asked to do this in your statistics assignments.

However, when presenting research results in academic papers we rarely talk this way. Instead, we go back to our alternate hypothesis (in this case, the hypothesis that men are on average taller than women) and state whether the result of our test did or did not support the alternate hypothesis.

If your null hypothesis was rejected, this result is interpreted as “supported the alternate hypothesis.”

These are superficial differences; you can see that they mean the same thing.

You might notice that we don’t say that we reject or fail to reject the alternate hypothesis . This is because hypothesis testing is not designed to prove or disprove anything. It is only designed to test whether a pattern we measure could have arisen spuriously, or by chance.

If we reject the null hypothesis based on our research (i.e., we find that it is unlikely that the pattern arose by chance), then we can say our test lends support to our hypothesis . But if the pattern does not pass our decision rule, meaning that it could have arisen by chance, then we say the test is inconsistent with our hypothesis .

If you want to know more about statistics , methodology , or research bias , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Normal distribution
• Descriptive statistics
• Measures of central tendency
• Correlation coefficient

Methodology

• Cluster sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Types of interviews
• Cohort study
• Thematic analysis

Research bias

• Implicit bias
• Cognitive bias
• Survivorship bias
• Availability heuristic
• Nonresponse bias
• Regression to the mean

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess — it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations and statistical analysis of data).

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

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What is a Research Hypothesis: How to Write it, Types, and Examples

Any research begins with a research question and a research hypothesis . A research question alone may not suffice to design the experiment(s) needed to answer it. A hypothesis is central to the scientific method. But what is a hypothesis ? A hypothesis is a testable statement that proposes a possible explanation to a phenomenon, and it may include a prediction. Next, you may ask what is a research hypothesis ? Simply put, a research hypothesis is a prediction or educated guess about the relationship between the variables that you want to investigate.  

It is important to be thorough when developing your research hypothesis. Shortcomings in the framing of a hypothesis can affect the study design and the results. A better understanding of the research hypothesis definition and characteristics of a good hypothesis will make it easier for you to develop your own hypothesis for your research. Let’s dive in to know more about the types of research hypothesis , how to write a research hypothesis , and some research hypothesis examples .  

Table of Contents

What is a hypothesis ?  

A hypothesis is based on the existing body of knowledge in a study area. Framed before the data are collected, a hypothesis states the tentative relationship between independent and dependent variables, along with a prediction of the outcome.  

What is a research hypothesis ?  

Young researchers starting out their journey are usually brimming with questions like “ What is a hypothesis ?” “ What is a research hypothesis ?” “How can I write a good research hypothesis ?”   

A research hypothesis is a statement that proposes a possible explanation for an observable phenomenon or pattern. It guides the direction of a study and predicts the outcome of the investigation. A research hypothesis is testable, i.e., it can be supported or disproven through experimentation or observation.     

Characteristics of a good hypothesis  

Here are the characteristics of a good hypothesis :  

• Clearly formulated and free of language errors and ambiguity  
• Concise and not unnecessarily verbose  
• Has clearly defined variables  
• Testable and stated in a way that allows for it to be disproven  
• Can be tested using a research design that is feasible, ethical, and practical   
• Specific and relevant to the research problem  
• Rooted in a thorough literature search  
• Can generate new knowledge or understanding.  

How to create an effective research hypothesis  

A study begins with the formulation of a research question. A researcher then performs background research. This background information forms the basis for building a good research hypothesis . The researcher then performs experiments, collects, and analyzes the data, interprets the findings, and ultimately, determines if the findings support or negate the original hypothesis.  

Let’s look at each step for creating an effective, testable, and good research hypothesis :  

• Identify a research problem or question: Start by identifying a specific research problem.   
• Review the literature: Conduct an in-depth review of the existing literature related to the research problem to grasp the current knowledge and gaps in the field.   
• Formulate a clear and testable hypothesis : Based on the research question, use existing knowledge to form a clear and testable hypothesis . The hypothesis should state a predicted relationship between two or more variables that can be measured and manipulated. Improve the original draft till it is clear and meaningful.  
• State the null hypothesis: The null hypothesis is a statement that there is no relationship between the variables you are studying.   
• Define the population and sample: Clearly define the population you are studying and the sample you will be using for your research.  
• Select appropriate methods for testing the hypothesis: Select appropriate research methods, such as experiments, surveys, or observational studies, which will allow you to test your research hypothesis .  

Remember that creating a research hypothesis is an iterative process, i.e., you might have to revise it based on the data you collect. You may need to test and reject several hypotheses before answering the research problem.  

How to write a research hypothesis  

When you start writing a research hypothesis , you use an “if–then” statement format, which states the predicted relationship between two or more variables. Clearly identify the independent variables (the variables being changed) and the dependent variables (the variables being measured), as well as the population you are studying. Review and revise your hypothesis as needed.  

An example of a research hypothesis in this format is as follows:  

“ If [athletes] follow [cold water showers daily], then their [endurance] increases.”  

Population: athletes  

Independent variable: daily cold water showers  

Dependent variable: endurance  

You may have understood the characteristics of a good hypothesis . But note that a research hypothesis is not always confirmed; a researcher should be prepared to accept or reject the hypothesis based on the study findings.  

Research hypothesis checklist  

Following from above, here is a 10-point checklist for a good research hypothesis :  

• Testable: A research hypothesis should be able to be tested via experimentation or observation.  
• Specific: A research hypothesis should clearly state the relationship between the variables being studied.  
• Based on prior research: A research hypothesis should be based on existing knowledge and previous research in the field.  
• Falsifiable: A research hypothesis should be able to be disproven through testing.  
• Clear and concise: A research hypothesis should be stated in a clear and concise manner.  
• Logical: A research hypothesis should be logical and consistent with current understanding of the subject.  
• Relevant: A research hypothesis should be relevant to the research question and objectives.  
• Feasible: A research hypothesis should be feasible to test within the scope of the study.  
• Reflects the population: A research hypothesis should consider the population or sample being studied.  
• Uncomplicated: A good research hypothesis is written in a way that is easy for the target audience to understand.  

By following this research hypothesis checklist , you will be able to create a research hypothesis that is strong, well-constructed, and more likely to yield meaningful results.  

Types of research hypothesis  

Different types of research hypothesis are used in scientific research:  

1. Null hypothesis:

A null hypothesis states that there is no change in the dependent variable due to changes to the independent variable. This means that the results are due to chance and are not significant. A null hypothesis is denoted as H0 and is stated as the opposite of what the alternative hypothesis states.   

Example: “ The newly identified virus is not zoonotic .”  

2. Alternative hypothesis:

This states that there is a significant difference or relationship between the variables being studied. It is denoted as H1 or Ha and is usually accepted or rejected in favor of the null hypothesis.  

Example: “ The newly identified virus is zoonotic .”  

3. Directional hypothesis :

This specifies the direction of the relationship or difference between variables; therefore, it tends to use terms like increase, decrease, positive, negative, more, or less.   

Example: “ The inclusion of intervention X decreases infant mortality compared to the original treatment .”   

4. Non-directional hypothesis:

While it does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables, a non-directional hypothesis states the existence of a relationship or difference between variables but not the direction, nature, or magnitude of the relationship. A non-directional hypothesis may be used when there is no underlying theory or when findings contradict previous research.  

Example, “ Cats and dogs differ in the amount of affection they express .”  

5. Simple hypothesis :

A simple hypothesis only predicts the relationship between one independent and another independent variable.  

Example: “ Applying sunscreen every day slows skin aging .”  

6 . Complex hypothesis :

A complex hypothesis states the relationship or difference between two or more independent and dependent variables.   

Example: “ Applying sunscreen every day slows skin aging, reduces sun burn, and reduces the chances of skin cancer .” (Here, the three dependent variables are slowing skin aging, reducing sun burn, and reducing the chances of skin cancer.)  

7. Associative hypothesis:  

An associative hypothesis states that a change in one variable results in the change of the other variable. The associative hypothesis defines interdependency between variables.  

Example: “ There is a positive association between physical activity levels and overall health .”  

8 . Causal hypothesis:

A causal hypothesis proposes a cause-and-effect interaction between variables.  

Example: “ Long-term alcohol use causes liver damage .”  

Note that some of the types of research hypothesis mentioned above might overlap. The types of hypothesis chosen will depend on the research question and the objective of the study.  

Research hypothesis examples  

Here are some good research hypothesis examples :  

“The use of a specific type of therapy will lead to a reduction in symptoms of depression in individuals with a history of major depressive disorder.”  

“Providing educational interventions on healthy eating habits will result in weight loss in overweight individuals.”  

“Plants that are exposed to certain types of music will grow taller than those that are not exposed to music.”  

“The use of the plant growth regulator X will lead to an increase in the number of flowers produced by plants.”  

Characteristics that make a research hypothesis weak are unclear variables, unoriginality, being too general or too vague, and being untestable. A weak hypothesis leads to weak research and improper methods.   

Some bad research hypothesis examples (and the reasons why they are “bad”) are as follows:  

“This study will show that treatment X is better than any other treatment . ” (This statement is not testable, too broad, and does not consider other treatments that may be effective.)  

“This study will prove that this type of therapy is effective for all mental disorders . ” (This statement is too broad and not testable as mental disorders are complex and different disorders may respond differently to different types of therapy.)  

“Plants can communicate with each other through telepathy . ” (This statement is not testable and lacks a scientific basis.)  

Importance of testable hypothesis  

If a research hypothesis is not testable, the results will not prove or disprove anything meaningful. The conclusions will be vague at best. A testable hypothesis helps a researcher focus on the study outcome and understand the implication of the question and the different variables involved. A testable hypothesis helps a researcher make precise predictions based on prior research.  

To be considered testable, there must be a way to prove that the hypothesis is true or false; further, the results of the hypothesis must be reproducible.  

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on research hypothesis  

1. What is the difference between research question and research hypothesis ?  

A research question defines the problem and helps outline the study objective(s). It is an open-ended statement that is exploratory or probing in nature. Therefore, it does not make predictions or assumptions. It helps a researcher identify what information to collect. A research hypothesis , however, is a specific, testable prediction about the relationship between variables. Accordingly, it guides the study design and data analysis approach.

2. When to reject null hypothesis ?

A null hypothesis should be rejected when the evidence from a statistical test shows that it is unlikely to be true. This happens when the test statistic (e.g., p -value) is less than the defined significance level (e.g., 0.05). Rejecting the null hypothesis does not necessarily mean that the alternative hypothesis is true; it simply means that the evidence found is not compatible with the null hypothesis.  

3. How can I be sure my hypothesis is testable?  

A testable hypothesis should be specific and measurable, and it should state a clear relationship between variables that can be tested with data. To ensure that your hypothesis is testable, consider the following:  

• Clearly define the key variables in your hypothesis. You should be able to measure and manipulate these variables in a way that allows you to test the hypothesis.  
• The hypothesis should predict a specific outcome or relationship between variables that can be measured or quantified.   
• You should be able to collect the necessary data within the constraints of your study.  
• It should be possible for other researchers to replicate your study, using the same methods and variables.   
• Your hypothesis should be testable by using appropriate statistical analysis techniques, so you can draw conclusions, and make inferences about the population from the sample data.  
• The hypothesis should be able to be disproven or rejected through the collection of data.  

4. How do I revise my research hypothesis if my data does not support it?  

If your data does not support your research hypothesis , you will need to revise it or develop a new one. You should examine your data carefully and identify any patterns or anomalies, re-examine your research question, and/or revisit your theory to look for any alternative explanations for your results. Based on your review of the data, literature, and theories, modify your research hypothesis to better align it with the results you obtained. Use your revised hypothesis to guide your research design and data collection. It is important to remain objective throughout the process.  

5. I am performing exploratory research. Do I need to formulate a research hypothesis?  

As opposed to “confirmatory” research, where a researcher has some idea about the relationship between the variables under investigation, exploratory research (or hypothesis-generating research) looks into a completely new topic about which limited information is available. Therefore, the researcher will not have any prior hypotheses. In such cases, a researcher will need to develop a post-hoc hypothesis. A post-hoc research hypothesis is generated after these results are known.  

6. How is a research hypothesis different from a research question?

A research question is an inquiry about a specific topic or phenomenon, typically expressed as a question. It seeks to explore and understand a particular aspect of the research subject. In contrast, a research hypothesis is a specific statement or prediction that suggests an expected relationship between variables. It is formulated based on existing knowledge or theories and guides the research design and data analysis.

7. Can a research hypothesis change during the research process?

Yes, research hypotheses can change during the research process. As researchers collect and analyze data, new insights and information may emerge that require modification or refinement of the initial hypotheses. This can be due to unexpected findings, limitations in the original hypotheses, or the need to explore additional dimensions of the research topic. Flexibility is crucial in research, allowing for adaptation and adjustment of hypotheses to align with the evolving understanding of the subject matter.

8. How many hypotheses should be included in a research study?

The number of research hypotheses in a research study varies depending on the nature and scope of the research. It is not necessary to have multiple hypotheses in every study. Some studies may have only one primary hypothesis, while others may have several related hypotheses. The number of hypotheses should be determined based on the research objectives, research questions, and the complexity of the research topic. It is important to ensure that the hypotheses are focused, testable, and directly related to the research aims.

9. Can research hypotheses be used in qualitative research?

Yes, research hypotheses can be used in qualitative research, although they are more commonly associated with quantitative research. In qualitative research, hypotheses may be formulated as tentative or exploratory statements that guide the investigation. Instead of testing hypotheses through statistical analysis, qualitative researchers may use the hypotheses to guide data collection and analysis, seeking to uncover patterns, themes, or relationships within the qualitative data. The emphasis in qualitative research is often on generating insights and understanding rather than confirming or rejecting specific research hypotheses through statistical testing.

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Overview of the Scientific Method

10 Developing a Hypothesis

Learning objectives.

• Distinguish between a theory and a hypothesis.
• Discover how theories are used to generate hypotheses and how the results of studies can be used to further inform theories.
• Understand the characteristics of a good hypothesis.

Theories and Hypotheses

Before describing how to develop a hypothesis, it is important to distinguish between a theory and a hypothesis. A  theory  is a coherent explanation or interpretation of one or more phenomena. Although theories can take a variety of forms, one thing they have in common is that they go beyond the phenomena they explain by including variables, structures, processes, functions, or organizing principles that have not been observed directly. Consider, for example, Zajonc’s theory of social facilitation and social inhibition (1965) [1] . He proposed that being watched by others while performing a task creates a general state of physiological arousal, which increases the likelihood of the dominant (most likely) response. So for highly practiced tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make correct responses, but for relatively unpracticed tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make incorrect responses. Notice that this theory—which has come to be called drive theory—provides an explanation of both social facilitation and social inhibition that goes beyond the phenomena themselves by including concepts such as “arousal” and “dominant response,” along with processes such as the effect of arousal on the dominant response.

Outside of science, referring to an idea as a theory often implies that it is untested—perhaps no more than a wild guess. In science, however, the term theory has no such implication. A theory is simply an explanation or interpretation of a set of phenomena. It can be untested, but it can also be extensively tested, well supported, and accepted as an accurate description of the world by the scientific community. The theory of evolution by natural selection, for example, is a theory because it is an explanation of the diversity of life on earth—not because it is untested or unsupported by scientific research. On the contrary, the evidence for this theory is overwhelmingly positive and nearly all scientists accept its basic assumptions as accurate. Similarly, the “germ theory” of disease is a theory because it is an explanation of the origin of various diseases, not because there is any doubt that many diseases are caused by microorganisms that infect the body.

A  hypothesis , on the other hand, is a specific prediction about a new phenomenon that should be observed if a particular theory is accurate. It is an explanation that relies on just a few key concepts. Hypotheses are often specific predictions about what will happen in a particular study. They are developed by considering existing evidence and using reasoning to infer what will happen in the specific context of interest. Hypotheses are often but not always derived from theories. So a hypothesis is often a prediction based on a theory but some hypotheses are a-theoretical and only after a set of observations have been made, is a theory developed. This is because theories are broad in nature and they explain larger bodies of data. So if our research question is really original then we may need to collect some data and make some observations before we can develop a broader theory.

Theories and hypotheses always have this  if-then  relationship. “ If   drive theory is correct,  then  cockroaches should run through a straight runway faster, and a branching runway more slowly, when other cockroaches are present.” Although hypotheses are usually expressed as statements, they can always be rephrased as questions. “Do cockroaches run through a straight runway faster when other cockroaches are present?” Thus deriving hypotheses from theories is an excellent way of generating interesting research questions.

But how do researchers derive hypotheses from theories? One way is to generate a research question using the techniques discussed in this chapter  and then ask whether any theory implies an answer to that question. For example, you might wonder whether expressive writing about positive experiences improves health as much as expressive writing about traumatic experiences. Although this  question  is an interesting one  on its own, you might then ask whether the habituation theory—the idea that expressive writing causes people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings—implies an answer. In this case, it seems clear that if the habituation theory is correct, then expressive writing about positive experiences should not be effective because it would not cause people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings. A second way to derive hypotheses from theories is to focus on some component of the theory that has not yet been directly observed. For example, a researcher could focus on the process of habituation—perhaps hypothesizing that people should show fewer signs of emotional distress with each new writing session.

Among the very best hypotheses are those that distinguish between competing theories. For example, Norbert Schwarz and his colleagues considered two theories of how people make judgments about themselves, such as how assertive they are (Schwarz et al., 1991) [2] . Both theories held that such judgments are based on relevant examples that people bring to mind. However, one theory was that people base their judgments on the  number  of examples they bring to mind and the other was that people base their judgments on how  easily  they bring those examples to mind. To test these theories, the researchers asked people to recall either six times when they were assertive (which is easy for most people) or 12 times (which is difficult for most people). Then they asked them to judge their own assertiveness. Note that the number-of-examples theory implies that people who recalled 12 examples should judge themselves to be more assertive because they recalled more examples, but the ease-of-examples theory implies that participants who recalled six examples should judge themselves as more assertive because recalling the examples was easier. Thus the two theories made opposite predictions so that only one of the predictions could be confirmed. The surprising result was that participants who recalled fewer examples judged themselves to be more assertive—providing particularly convincing evidence in favor of the ease-of-retrieval theory over the number-of-examples theory.

Theory Testing

The primary way that scientific researchers use theories is sometimes called the hypothetico-deductive method  (although this term is much more likely to be used by philosophers of science than by scientists themselves). Researchers begin with a set of phenomena and either construct a theory to explain or interpret them or choose an existing theory to work with. They then make a prediction about some new phenomenon that should be observed if the theory is correct. Again, this prediction is called a hypothesis. The researchers then conduct an empirical study to test the hypothesis. Finally, they reevaluate the theory in light of the new results and revise it if necessary. This process is usually conceptualized as a cycle because the researchers can then derive a new hypothesis from the revised theory, conduct a new empirical study to test the hypothesis, and so on. As  Figure 2.3  shows, this approach meshes nicely with the model of scientific research in psychology presented earlier in the textbook—creating a more detailed model of “theoretically motivated” or “theory-driven” research.

As an example, let us consider Zajonc’s research on social facilitation and inhibition. He started with a somewhat contradictory pattern of results from the research literature. He then constructed his drive theory, according to which being watched by others while performing a task causes physiological arousal, which increases an organism’s tendency to make the dominant response. This theory predicts social facilitation for well-learned tasks and social inhibition for poorly learned tasks. He now had a theory that organized previous results in a meaningful way—but he still needed to test it. He hypothesized that if his theory was correct, he should observe that the presence of others improves performance in a simple laboratory task but inhibits performance in a difficult version of the very same laboratory task. To test this hypothesis, one of the studies he conducted used cockroaches as subjects (Zajonc, Heingartner, & Herman, 1969) [3] . The cockroaches ran either down a straight runway (an easy task for a cockroach) or through a cross-shaped maze (a difficult task for a cockroach) to escape into a dark chamber when a light was shined on them. They did this either while alone or in the presence of other cockroaches in clear plastic “audience boxes.” Zajonc found that cockroaches in the straight runway reached their goal more quickly in the presence of other cockroaches, but cockroaches in the cross-shaped maze reached their goal more slowly when they were in the presence of other cockroaches. Thus he confirmed his hypothesis and provided support for his drive theory. (Zajonc also showed that drive theory existed in humans [Zajonc & Sales, 1966] [4] in many other studies afterward).

Incorporating Theory into Your Research

When you write your research report or plan your presentation, be aware that there are two basic ways that researchers usually include theory. The first is to raise a research question, answer that question by conducting a new study, and then offer one or more theories (usually more) to explain or interpret the results. This format works well for applied research questions and for research questions that existing theories do not address. The second way is to describe one or more existing theories, derive a hypothesis from one of those theories, test the hypothesis in a new study, and finally reevaluate the theory. This format works well when there is an existing theory that addresses the research question—especially if the resulting hypothesis is surprising or conflicts with a hypothesis derived from a different theory.

To use theories in your research will not only give you guidance in coming up with experiment ideas and possible projects, but it lends legitimacy to your work. Psychologists have been interested in a variety of human behaviors and have developed many theories along the way. Using established theories will help you break new ground as a researcher, not limit you from developing your own ideas.

Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

There are three general characteristics of a good hypothesis. First, a good hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable . We must be able to test the hypothesis using the methods of science and if you’ll recall Popper’s falsifiability criterion, it must be possible to gather evidence that will disconfirm the hypothesis if it is indeed false. Second, a good hypothesis must be logical. As described above, hypotheses are more than just a random guess. Hypotheses should be informed by previous theories or observations and logical reasoning. Typically, we begin with a broad and general theory and use  deductive reasoning to generate a more specific hypothesis to test based on that theory. Occasionally, however, when there is no theory to inform our hypothesis, we use  inductive reasoning  which involves using specific observations or research findings to form a more general hypothesis. Finally, the hypothesis should be positive. That is, the hypothesis should make a positive statement about the existence of a relationship or effect, rather than a statement that a relationship or effect does not exist. As scientists, we don’t set out to show that relationships do not exist or that effects do not occur so our hypotheses should not be worded in a way to suggest that an effect or relationship does not exist. The nature of science is to assume that something does not exist and then seek to find evidence to prove this wrong, to show that it really does exist. That may seem backward to you but that is the nature of the scientific method. The underlying reason for this is beyond the scope of this chapter but it has to do with statistical theory.

• Zajonc, R. B. (1965). Social facilitation.  Science, 149 , 269–274 ↵
• Schwarz, N., Bless, H., Strack, F., Klumpp, G., Rittenauer-Schatka, H., & Simons, A. (1991). Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61 , 195–202. ↵
• Zajonc, R. B., Heingartner, A., & Herman, E. M. (1969). Social enhancement and impairment of performance in the cockroach.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13 , 83–92. ↵
• Zajonc, R.B. & Sales, S.M. (1966). Social facilitation of dominant and subordinate responses. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2 , 160-168. ↵

A coherent explanation or interpretation of one or more phenomena.

A specific prediction about a new phenomenon that should be observed if a particular theory is accurate.

A cyclical process of theory development, starting with an observed phenomenon, then developing or using a theory to make a specific prediction of what should happen if that theory is correct, testing that prediction, refining the theory in light of the findings, and using that refined theory to develop new hypotheses, and so on.

The ability to test the hypothesis using the methods of science and the possibility to gather evidence that will disconfirm the hypothesis if it is indeed false.

Research Methods in Psychology Copyright © 2019 by Rajiv S. Jhangiani, I-Chant A. Chiang, Carrie Cuttler, & Dana C. Leighton is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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• How it works

How to Write a Hypothesis – Steps & Tips

Published by Alaxendra Bets at August 14th, 2021 , Revised On October 26, 2023

What is a Research Hypothesis?

You can test a research statement with the help of experimental or theoretical research, known as a hypothesis.

If you want to find out the similarities, differences, and relationships between variables, you must write a testable hypothesis before compiling the data, performing analysis, and generating results to complete.

The data analysis and findings will help you test the hypothesis and see whether it is true or false. Here is all you need to know about how to write a hypothesis for a  dissertation .

Research Hypothesis Definition

Not sure what the meaning of the research hypothesis is?

A research hypothesis predicts an answer to the research question  based on existing theoretical knowledge or experimental data.

Some studies may have multiple hypothesis statements depending on the research question(s).  A research hypothesis must be based on formulas, facts, and theories. It should be testable by data analysis, observations, experiments, or other scientific methodologies that can refute or support the statement.

Variables in Hypothesis

Developing a hypothesis is easy. Most research studies have two or more variables in the hypothesis, particularly studies involving correlational and experimental research. The researcher can control or change the independent variable(s) while measuring and observing the independent variable(s).

“How long a student sleeps affects test scores.”

In the above statement, the dependent variable is the test score, while the independent variable is the length of time spent in sleep. Developing a hypothesis will be easy if you know your research’s dependent and independent variables.

Once you have developed a thesis statement, questions such as how to write a hypothesis for the dissertation and how to test a research hypothesis become pretty straightforward.

Looking for dissertation help?

Researchprospect to the rescue then.

We have expert writers on our team who are skilled at helping students with quantitative dissertations across a variety of STEM disciplines. Guaranteeing 100% satisfaction!

Step-by-Step Guide on How to Write a Hypothesis

Here are the steps involved in how to write a hypothesis for a dissertation.

Step 1: Start with a Research Question

• Begin by asking a specific question about a topic of interest.
• This question should be clear, concise, and researchable.

Example: Does exposure to sunlight affect plant growth?

Step 2: Do Preliminary Research

• Before formulating a hypothesis, conduct background research to understand existing knowledge on the topic.
• Familiarise yourself with prior studies, theories, or observations related to the research question.

Step 3: Define Variables

• Independent Variable (IV): The factor that you change or manipulate in an experiment.
• Dependent Variable (DV): The factor that you measure.

Example: IV: Amount of sunlight exposure (e.g., 2 hours/day, 4 hours/day, 8 hours/day) DV: Plant growth (e.g., height in centimetres)

Step 4: Formulate the Hypothesis

• A hypothesis is a statement that predicts the relationship between variables.
• It is often written as an “if-then” statement.

Example: If plants receive more sunlight, then they will grow taller.

Step 5: Ensure it is Testable

A good hypothesis is empirically testable. This means you should be able to design an experiment or observation to test its validity.

Example: You can set up an experiment where plants are exposed to varying amounts of sunlight and then measure their growth over a period of time.

Step 6: Consider Potential Confounding Variables

• Confounding variables are factors other than the independent variable that might affect the outcome.
• It is important to identify these to ensure that they do not skew your results.

Example: Soil quality, water frequency, or type of plant can all affect growth. Consider keeping these constant in your experiment.

Step 7: Write the Null Hypothesis

• The null hypothesis is a statement that there is no effect or no relationship between the variables.
• It is what you aim to disprove or reject through your research.

Example: There is no difference in plant growth regardless of the amount of sunlight exposure.

Step 8: Test your Hypothesis

Design an experiment or conduct observations to test your hypothesis.

Example: Grow three sets of plants: one set exposed to 2 hours of sunlight daily, another exposed to 4 hours, and a third exposed to 8 hours. Measure and compare their growth after a set period.

Step 9: Analyse the Results

After testing, review your data to determine if it supports your hypothesis.

Step 10: Draw Conclusions

• Based on your findings, determine whether you can accept or reject the hypothesis.
• Remember, even if you reject your hypothesis, it’s a valuable result. It can guide future research and refine questions.

Three Ways to Phrase a Hypothesis

Try to use “if”… and “then”… to identify the variables. The independent variable should be present in the first part of the hypothesis, while the dependent variable will form the second part of the statement. Consider understanding the below research hypothesis example to create a specific, clear, and concise research hypothesis;

If an obese lady starts attending Zomba fitness classes, her health will improve.

In academic research, you can write the predicted variable relationship directly because most research studies correlate terms.

The number of Zomba fitness classes attended by the obese lady has a positive effect on health.

If your research compares two groups, then you can develop a hypothesis statement on their differences.

An obese lady who attended most Zumba fitness classes will have better health than those who attended a few.

How to Write a Null Hypothesis

If a statistical analysis is involved in your research, then you must create a null hypothesis. If you find any relationship between the variables, then the null hypothesis will be the default position that there is no relationship between them. H0 is the symbol for the null hypothesis, while the hypothesis is represented as H1. The null hypothesis will also answer your question, “How to test the research hypothesis in the dissertation.”

H0: The number of Zumba fitness classes attended by the obese lady does not affect her health.

H1: The number of Zumba fitness classes attended by obese lady positively affects health.

Also see:  Your Dissertation in Education

Hypothesis Examples

Research Question: Does the amount of sunlight a plant receives affect its growth? Hypothesis: Plants that receive more sunlight will grow taller than plants that receive less sunlight.

Research Question: Do students who eat breakfast perform better in school exams than those who don’t? Hypothesis: Students who eat a morning breakfast will score higher on school exams compared to students who skip breakfast.

Research Question: Does listening to music while studying impact a student’s ability to retain information? Hypothesis 1 (Directional): Students who listen to music while studying will retain less information than those who study in silence. Hypothesis 2 (Non-directional): There will be a difference in information retention between students who listen to music while studying and those who study in silence.

How can ResearchProspect Help?

If you are unsure about how to rest a research hypothesis in a dissertation or simply unsure about how to develop a hypothesis for your research, then you can take advantage of our dissertation services which cover every tiny aspect of a dissertation project you might need help with including but not limited to setting up a hypothesis and research questions,  help with individual chapters ,  full dissertation writing ,  statistical analysis , and much more.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the 5 rules for writing a good hypothesis.

• Clear Statement: State a clear relationship between variables.
• Testable: Ensure it can be investigated and measured.
• Specific: Avoid vague terms, be precise in predictions.
• Falsifiable: Design to allow potential disproof.
• Relevant: Address research question and align with existing knowledge.

What is a hypothesis in simple words?

A hypothesis is an educated guess or prediction about something that can be tested. It is a statement that suggests a possible explanation for an event or phenomenon based on prior knowledge or observation. Scientists use hypotheses as a starting point for experiments to discover if they are true or false.

What is the hypothesis and examples?

A hypothesis is a testable prediction or explanation for an observation or phenomenon. For example, if plants are given sunlight, then they will grow. In this case, the hypothesis suggests that sunlight has a positive effect on plant growth. It can be tested by experimenting with plants in varying light conditions.

What is the hypothesis in research definition?

A hypothesis in research is a clear, testable statement predicting the possible outcome of a study based on prior knowledge and observation. It serves as the foundation for conducting experiments or investigations. Researchers test the validity of the hypothesis to draw conclusions and advance knowledge in a particular field.

Why is it called a hypothesis?

The term “hypothesis” originates from the Greek word “hypothesis,” which means “base” or “foundation.” It’s used to describe a foundational statement or proposition that can be tested. In scientific contexts, it denotes a tentative explanation for a phenomenon, serving as a starting point for investigation or experimentation.

You May Also Like

Here we explore what is research problem in dissertation with research problem examples to help you understand how and when to write a research problem.

This article is a step-by-step guide to how to write statement of a problem in research. The research problem will be half-solved by defining it correctly.

Make sure that your selected topic is intriguing, manageable, and relevant. Here are some guidelines to help understand how to find a good dissertation topic.

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Developing a Hypothesis

Rajiv S. Jhangiani; I-Chant A. Chiang; Carrie Cuttler; and Dana C. Leighton

Learning Objectives

• Distinguish between a theory and a hypothesis.
• Discover how theories are used to generate hypotheses and how the results of studies can be used to further inform theories.
• Understand the characteristics of a good hypothesis.

Theories and Hypotheses

Before describing how to develop a hypothesis, it is important to distinguish between a theory and a hypothesis. A  theory  is a coherent explanation or interpretation of one or more phenomena. Although theories can take a variety of forms, one thing they have in common is that they go beyond the phenomena they explain by including variables, structures, processes, functions, or organizing principles that have not been observed directly. Consider, for example, Zajonc’s theory of social facilitation and social inhibition (1965) [1] . He proposed that being watched by others while performing a task creates a general state of physiological arousal, which increases the likelihood of the dominant (most likely) response. So for highly practiced tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make correct responses, but for relatively unpracticed tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make incorrect responses. Notice that this theory—which has come to be called drive theory—provides an explanation of both social facilitation and social inhibition that goes beyond the phenomena themselves by including concepts such as “arousal” and “dominant response,” along with processes such as the effect of arousal on the dominant response.

Outside of science, referring to an idea as a theory often implies that it is untested—perhaps no more than a wild guess. In science, however, the term theory has no such implication. A theory is simply an explanation or interpretation of a set of phenomena. It can be untested, but it can also be extensively tested, well supported, and accepted as an accurate description of the world by the scientific community. The theory of evolution by natural selection, for example, is a theory because it is an explanation of the diversity of life on earth—not because it is untested or unsupported by scientific research. On the contrary, the evidence for this theory is overwhelmingly positive and nearly all scientists accept its basic assumptions as accurate. Similarly, the “germ theory” of disease is a theory because it is an explanation of the origin of various diseases, not because there is any doubt that many diseases are caused by microorganisms that infect the body.

A  hypothesis , on the other hand, is a specific prediction about a new phenomenon that should be observed if a particular theory is accurate. It is an explanation that relies on just a few key concepts. Hypotheses are often specific predictions about what will happen in a particular study. They are developed by considering existing evidence and using reasoning to infer what will happen in the specific context of interest. Hypotheses are often but not always derived from theories. So a hypothesis is often a prediction based on a theory but some hypotheses are a-theoretical and only after a set of observations have been made, is a theory developed. This is because theories are broad in nature and they explain larger bodies of data. So if our research question is really original then we may need to collect some data and make some observations before we can develop a broader theory.

Theories and hypotheses always have this  if-then  relationship. “ If   drive theory is correct,  then  cockroaches should run through a straight runway faster, and a branching runway more slowly, when other cockroaches are present.” Although hypotheses are usually expressed as statements, they can always be rephrased as questions. “Do cockroaches run through a straight runway faster when other cockroaches are present?” Thus deriving hypotheses from theories is an excellent way of generating interesting research questions.

But how do researchers derive hypotheses from theories? One way is to generate a research question using the techniques discussed in this chapter  and then ask whether any theory implies an answer to that question. For example, you might wonder whether expressive writing about positive experiences improves health as much as expressive writing about traumatic experiences. Although this  question  is an interesting one  on its own, you might then ask whether the habituation theory—the idea that expressive writing causes people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings—implies an answer. In this case, it seems clear that if the habituation theory is correct, then expressive writing about positive experiences should not be effective because it would not cause people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings. A second way to derive hypotheses from theories is to focus on some component of the theory that has not yet been directly observed. For example, a researcher could focus on the process of habituation—perhaps hypothesizing that people should show fewer signs of emotional distress with each new writing session.

Among the very best hypotheses are those that distinguish between competing theories. For example, Norbert Schwarz and his colleagues considered two theories of how people make judgments about themselves, such as how assertive they are (Schwarz et al., 1991) [2] . Both theories held that such judgments are based on relevant examples that people bring to mind. However, one theory was that people base their judgments on the  number  of examples they bring to mind and the other was that people base their judgments on how  easily  they bring those examples to mind. To test these theories, the researchers asked people to recall either six times when they were assertive (which is easy for most people) or 12 times (which is difficult for most people). Then they asked them to judge their own assertiveness. Note that the number-of-examples theory implies that people who recalled 12 examples should judge themselves to be more assertive because they recalled more examples, but the ease-of-examples theory implies that participants who recalled six examples should judge themselves as more assertive because recalling the examples was easier. Thus the two theories made opposite predictions so that only one of the predictions could be confirmed. The surprising result was that participants who recalled fewer examples judged themselves to be more assertive—providing particularly convincing evidence in favor of the ease-of-retrieval theory over the number-of-examples theory.

Theory Testing

The primary way that scientific researchers use theories is sometimes called the hypothetico-deductive method  (although this term is much more likely to be used by philosophers of science than by scientists themselves). Researchers begin with a set of phenomena and either construct a theory to explain or interpret them or choose an existing theory to work with. They then make a prediction about some new phenomenon that should be observed if the theory is correct. Again, this prediction is called a hypothesis. The researchers then conduct an empirical study to test the hypothesis. Finally, they reevaluate the theory in light of the new results and revise it if necessary. This process is usually conceptualized as a cycle because the researchers can then derive a new hypothesis from the revised theory, conduct a new empirical study to test the hypothesis, and so on. As  Figure 2.3  shows, this approach meshes nicely with the model of scientific research in psychology presented earlier in the textbook—creating a more detailed model of “theoretically motivated” or “theory-driven” research.

As an example, let us consider Zajonc’s research on social facilitation and inhibition. He started with a somewhat contradictory pattern of results from the research literature. He then constructed his drive theory, according to which being watched by others while performing a task causes physiological arousal, which increases an organism’s tendency to make the dominant response. This theory predicts social facilitation for well-learned tasks and social inhibition for poorly learned tasks. He now had a theory that organized previous results in a meaningful way—but he still needed to test it. He hypothesized that if his theory was correct, he should observe that the presence of others improves performance in a simple laboratory task but inhibits performance in a difficult version of the very same laboratory task. To test this hypothesis, one of the studies he conducted used cockroaches as subjects (Zajonc, Heingartner, & Herman, 1969) [3] . The cockroaches ran either down a straight runway (an easy task for a cockroach) or through a cross-shaped maze (a difficult task for a cockroach) to escape into a dark chamber when a light was shined on them. They did this either while alone or in the presence of other cockroaches in clear plastic “audience boxes.” Zajonc found that cockroaches in the straight runway reached their goal more quickly in the presence of other cockroaches, but cockroaches in the cross-shaped maze reached their goal more slowly when they were in the presence of other cockroaches. Thus he confirmed his hypothesis and provided support for his drive theory. (Zajonc also showed that drive theory existed in humans [Zajonc & Sales, 1966] [4] in many other studies afterward).

Incorporating Theory into Your Research

When you write your research report or plan your presentation, be aware that there are two basic ways that researchers usually include theory. The first is to raise a research question, answer that question by conducting a new study, and then offer one or more theories (usually more) to explain or interpret the results. This format works well for applied research questions and for research questions that existing theories do not address. The second way is to describe one or more existing theories, derive a hypothesis from one of those theories, test the hypothesis in a new study, and finally reevaluate the theory. This format works well when there is an existing theory that addresses the research question—especially if the resulting hypothesis is surprising or conflicts with a hypothesis derived from a different theory.

To use theories in your research will not only give you guidance in coming up with experiment ideas and possible projects, but it lends legitimacy to your work. Psychologists have been interested in a variety of human behaviors and have developed many theories along the way. Using established theories will help you break new ground as a researcher, not limit you from developing your own ideas.

Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

There are three general characteristics of a good hypothesis. First, a good hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable . We must be able to test the hypothesis using the methods of science and if you’ll recall Popper’s falsifiability criterion, it must be possible to gather evidence that will disconfirm the hypothesis if it is indeed false. Second, a good hypothesis must be logical. As described above, hypotheses are more than just a random guess. Hypotheses should be informed by previous theories or observations and logical reasoning. Typically, we begin with a broad and general theory and use  deductive reasoning to generate a more specific hypothesis to test based on that theory. Occasionally, however, when there is no theory to inform our hypothesis, we use  inductive reasoning  which involves using specific observations or research findings to form a more general hypothesis. Finally, the hypothesis should be positive. That is, the hypothesis should make a positive statement about the existence of a relationship or effect, rather than a statement that a relationship or effect does not exist. As scientists, we don’t set out to show that relationships do not exist or that effects do not occur so our hypotheses should not be worded in a way to suggest that an effect or relationship does not exist. The nature of science is to assume that something does not exist and then seek to find evidence to prove this wrong, to show that it really does exist. That may seem backward to you but that is the nature of the scientific method. The underlying reason for this is beyond the scope of this chapter but it has to do with statistical theory.

• Zajonc, R. B. (1965). Social facilitation.  Science, 149 , 269–274 ↵
• Schwarz, N., Bless, H., Strack, F., Klumpp, G., Rittenauer-Schatka, H., & Simons, A. (1991). Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61 , 195–202. ↵
• Zajonc, R. B., Heingartner, A., & Herman, E. M. (1969). Social enhancement and impairment of performance in the cockroach.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13 , 83–92. ↵
• Zajonc, R.B. & Sales, S.M. (1966). Social facilitation of dominant and subordinate responses. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2 , 160-168. ↵

A coherent explanation or interpretation of one or more phenomena.

A specific prediction about a new phenomenon that should be observed if a particular theory is accurate.

A cyclical process of theory development, starting with an observed phenomenon, then developing or using a theory to make a specific prediction of what should happen if that theory is correct, testing that prediction, refining the theory in light of the findings, and using that refined theory to develop new hypotheses, and so on.

The ability to test the hypothesis using the methods of science and the possibility to gather evidence that will disconfirm the hypothesis if it is indeed false.

Developing a Hypothesis Copyright © by Rajiv S. Jhangiani; I-Chant A. Chiang; Carrie Cuttler; and Dana C. Leighton is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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How to Write a Hypothesis: A Step-by-Step Guide

Introduction

An overview of the research hypothesis, different types of hypotheses, variables in a hypothesis, how to formulate an effective research hypothesis, designing a study around your hypothesis.

The scientific method can derive and test predictions as hypotheses. Empirical research can then provide support (or lack thereof) for the hypotheses. Even failure to find support for a hypothesis still represents a valuable contribution to scientific knowledge. Let's look more closely at the idea of the hypothesis and the role it plays in research.

As much as the term exists in everyday language, there is a detailed development that informs the word "hypothesis" when applied to research. A good research hypothesis is informed by prior research and guides research design and data analysis , so it is important to understand how a hypothesis is defined and understood by researchers.

What is the simple definition of a hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a testable prediction about an outcome between two or more variables . It functions as a navigational tool in the research process, directing what you aim to predict and how.

What is the hypothesis for in research?

In research, a hypothesis serves as the cornerstone for your empirical study. It not only lays out what you aim to investigate but also provides a structured approach for your data collection and analysis.

Essentially, it bridges the gap between the theoretical and the empirical, guiding your investigation throughout its course.

What is an example of a hypothesis?

If you are studying the relationship between physical exercise and mental health, a suitable hypothesis could be: "Regular physical exercise leads to improved mental well-being among adults."

This statement constitutes a specific and testable hypothesis that directly relates to the variables you are investigating.

What makes a good hypothesis?

A good hypothesis possesses several key characteristics. Firstly, it must be testable, allowing you to analyze data through empirical means, such as observation or experimentation, to assess if there is significant support for the hypothesis. Secondly, a hypothesis should be specific and unambiguous, giving a clear understanding of the expected relationship between variables. Lastly, it should be grounded in existing research or theoretical frameworks , ensuring its relevance and applicability.

Understanding the types of hypotheses can greatly enhance how you construct and work with hypotheses. While all hypotheses serve the essential function of guiding your study, there are varying purposes among the types of hypotheses. In addition, all hypotheses stand in contrast to the null hypothesis, or the assumption that there is no significant relationship between the variables .

Here, we explore various kinds of hypotheses to provide you with the tools needed to craft effective hypotheses for your specific research needs. Bear in mind that many of these hypothesis types may overlap with one another, and the specific type that is typically used will likely depend on the area of research and methodology you are following.

Null hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that there is no effect or relationship between the variables being studied. In statistical terms, it serves as the default assumption that any observed differences are due to random chance.

For example, if you're studying the effect of a drug on blood pressure, the null hypothesis might state that the drug has no effect.

Alternative hypothesis

Contrary to the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis suggests that there is a significant relationship or effect between variables.

Using the drug example, the alternative hypothesis would posit that the drug does indeed affect blood pressure. This is what researchers aim to prove.

Simple hypothesis

A simple hypothesis makes a prediction about the relationship between two variables, and only two variables.

For example, "Increased study time results in better exam scores." Here, "study time" and "exam scores" are the only variables involved.

Complex hypothesis

A complex hypothesis, as the name suggests, involves more than two variables. For instance, "Increased study time and access to resources result in better exam scores." Here, "study time," "access to resources," and "exam scores" are all variables.

This hypothesis refers to multiple potential mediating variables. Other hypotheses could also include predictions about variables that moderate the relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable .

Directional hypothesis

A directional hypothesis specifies the direction of the expected relationship between variables. For example, "Eating more fruits and vegetables leads to a decrease in heart disease."

Here, the direction of heart disease is explicitly predicted to decrease, due to effects from eating more fruits and vegetables. All hypotheses typically specify the expected direction of the relationship between the independent and dependent variable, such that researchers can test if this prediction holds in their data analysis .

Statistical hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is one that is testable through statistical methods, providing a numerical value that can be analyzed. This is commonly seen in quantitative research .

For example, "There is a statistically significant difference in test scores between students who study for one hour and those who study for two."

Empirical hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is derived from observations and is tested through empirical methods, often through experimentation or survey data . Empirical hypotheses may also be assessed with statistical analyses.

For example, "Regular exercise is correlated with a lower incidence of depression," could be tested through surveys that measure exercise frequency and depression levels.

Causal hypothesis

A causal hypothesis proposes that one variable causes a change in another. This type of hypothesis is often tested through controlled experiments.

For example, "Smoking causes lung cancer," assumes a direct causal relationship.

Associative hypothesis

Unlike causal hypotheses, associative hypotheses suggest a relationship between variables but do not imply causation.

For instance, "People who smoke are more likely to get lung cancer," notes an association but doesn't claim that smoking causes lung cancer directly.

Relational hypothesis

A relational hypothesis explores the relationship between two or more variables but doesn't specify the nature of the relationship.

For example, "There is a relationship between diet and heart health," leaves the nature of the relationship (causal, associative, etc.) open to interpretation.

Logical hypothesis

A logical hypothesis is based on sound reasoning and logical principles. It's often used in theoretical research to explore abstract concepts, rather than being based on empirical data.

For example, "If all men are mortal and Socrates is a man, then Socrates is mortal," employs logical reasoning to make its point.

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In any research hypothesis, variables play a critical role. These are the elements or factors that the researcher manipulates, controls, or measures. Understanding variables is essential for crafting a clear, testable hypothesis and for the stages of research that follow, such as data collection and analysis.

In the realm of hypotheses, there are generally two types of variables to consider: independent and dependent. Independent variables are what you, as the researcher, manipulate or change in your study. It's considered the cause in the relationship you're investigating. For instance, in a study examining the impact of sleep duration on academic performance, the independent variable would be the amount of sleep participants get.

Conversely, the dependent variable is the outcome you measure to gauge the effect of your manipulation. It's the effect in the cause-and-effect relationship. The dependent variable thus refers to the main outcome of interest in your study. In the same sleep study example, the academic performance, perhaps measured by exam scores or GPA, would be the dependent variable.

Beyond these two primary types, you might also encounter control variables. These are variables that could potentially influence the outcome and are therefore kept constant to isolate the relationship between the independent and dependent variables . For example, in the sleep and academic performance study, control variables could include age, diet, or even the subject of study.

By clearly identifying and understanding the roles of these variables in your hypothesis, you set the stage for a methodologically sound research project. It helps you develop focused research questions, design appropriate experiments or observations, and carry out meaningful data analysis . It's a step that lays the groundwork for the success of your entire study.

Crafting a strong, testable hypothesis is crucial for the success of any research project. It sets the stage for everything from your study design to data collection and analysis . Below are some key considerations to keep in mind when formulating your hypothesis:

• Be specific : A vague hypothesis can lead to ambiguous results and interpretations . Clearly define your variables and the expected relationship between them.
• Ensure testability : A good hypothesis should be testable through empirical means, whether by observation , experimentation, or other forms of data analysis.
• Ground in literature : Before creating your hypothesis, consult existing research and theories. This not only helps you identify gaps in current knowledge but also gives you valuable context and credibility for crafting your hypothesis.
• Use simple language : While your hypothesis should be conceptually sound, it doesn't have to be complicated. Aim for clarity and simplicity in your wording.
• State direction, if applicable : If your hypothesis involves a directional outcome (e.g., "increase" or "decrease"), make sure to specify this. You also need to think about how you will measure whether or not the outcome moved in the direction you predicted.
• Keep it focused : One of the common pitfalls in hypothesis formulation is trying to answer too many questions at once. Keep your hypothesis focused on a specific issue or relationship.
• Account for control variables : Identify any variables that could potentially impact the outcome and consider how you will control for them in your study.
• Be ethical : Make sure your hypothesis and the methods for testing it comply with ethical standards , particularly if your research involves human or animal subjects.

Designing your study involves multiple key phases that help ensure the rigor and validity of your research. Here we discuss these crucial components in more detail.

Literature review

Starting with a comprehensive literature review is essential. This step allows you to understand the existing body of knowledge related to your hypothesis and helps you identify gaps that your research could fill. Your research should aim to contribute some novel understanding to existing literature, and your hypotheses can reflect this. A literature review also provides valuable insights into how similar research projects were executed, thereby helping you fine-tune your own approach.

Research methods

Choosing the right research methods is critical. Whether it's a survey, an experiment, or observational study, the methodology should be the most appropriate for testing your hypothesis. Your choice of methods will also depend on whether your research is quantitative, qualitative, or mixed-methods. Make sure the chosen methods align well with the variables you are studying and the type of data you need.

Preliminary research

Before diving into a full-scale study, it’s often beneficial to conduct preliminary research or a pilot study . This allows you to test your research methods on a smaller scale, refine your tools, and identify any potential issues. For instance, a pilot survey can help you determine if your questions are clear and if the survey effectively captures the data you need. This step can save you both time and resources in the long run.

Data analysis

Finally, planning your data analysis in advance is crucial for a successful study. Decide which statistical or analytical tools are most suited for your data type and research questions . For quantitative research, you might opt for t-tests, ANOVA, or regression analyses. For qualitative research , thematic analysis or grounded theory may be more appropriate. This phase is integral for interpreting your results and drawing meaningful conclusions in relation to your research question.

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Learn How To Write A Hypothesis For Your Next Research Project!

Undoubtedly, research plays a crucial role in substantiating or refuting our assumptions. These assumptions act as potential answers to our questions. Such assumptions, also known as hypotheses, are considered key aspects of research. In this blog, we delve into the significance of hypotheses. And provide insights on how to write them effectively. So, let’s dive in and explore the art of writing hypotheses together.

Table of Contents

What is a Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a crucial starting point in scientific research. It is an educated guess about the relationship between two or more variables. In other words, a hypothesis acts as a foundation for a researcher to build their study.

Here are some examples of well-crafted hypotheses:

• Increased exposure to natural sunlight improves sleep quality in adults.

A positive relationship between natural sunlight exposure and sleep quality in adult individuals.

• Playing puzzle games on a regular basis enhances problem-solving abilities in children.

Engaging in frequent puzzle gameplay leads to improved problem-solving skills in children.

• Students and improved learning hecks.

S tudents using online  paper writing service  platforms (as a learning tool for receiving personalized feedback and guidance) will demonstrate improved writing skills. (compared to those who do not utilize such platforms).

• The use of APA format in research papers. 

Using the  APA format  helps students stay organized when writing research papers. Organized students can focus better on their topics and, as a result, produce better quality work.

The Building Blocks of a Hypothesis

To better understand the concept of a hypothesis, let’s break it down into its basic components:

• Variables . A hypothesis involves at least two variables. An independent variable and a dependent variable. The independent variable is the one being changed or manipulated, while the dependent variable is the one being measured or observed.
• Relationship : A hypothesis proposes a relationship or connection between the variables. This could be a cause-and-effect relationship or a correlation between them.
• Testability : A hypothesis should be testable and falsifiable, meaning it can be proven right or wrong through experimentation or observation.

Types of Hypotheses

When learning how to write a hypothesis, it’s essential to understand its main types. These include; alternative hypotheses and null hypotheses. In the following section, we explore both types of hypotheses with examples. 

Alternative Hypothesis (H1)

This kind of hypothesis suggests a relationship or effect between the variables. It is the main focus of the study. The researcher wants to either prove or disprove it. Many research divides this hypothesis into two subsections: 

• Directional 

This type of H1 predicts a specific outcome. Many researchers use this hypothesis to explore the relationship between variables rather than the groups. 

• Non-directional

You can take a guess from the name. This type of H1 does not provide a specific prediction for the research outcome. 

Here are some examples for your better understanding of how to write a hypothesis.

• Consuming caffeine improves cognitive performance.  (This hypothesis predicts that there is a positive relationship between caffeine consumption and cognitive performance.)
• Aerobic exercise leads to reduced blood pressure.  (This hypothesis suggests that engaging in aerobic exercise results in lower blood pressure readings.)
• Exposure to nature reduces stress levels among employees.  (Here, the hypothesis proposes that employees exposed to natural environments will experience decreased stress levels.)
• Listening to classical music while studying increases memory retention.  (This hypothesis speculates that studying with classical music playing in the background boosts students’ ability to retain information.)
• Early literacy intervention improves reading skills in children.  (This hypothesis claims that providing early literacy assistance to children results in enhanced reading abilities.)
• Time management in nursing students. ( Students who use a  nursing research paper writing service  have more time to focus on their studies and can achieve better grades in other subjects. )

Null Hypothesis (H0)

A null hypothesis assumes no relationship or effect between the variables. If the alternative hypothesis is proven to be false, the null hypothesis is considered to be true. Usually a null hypothesis shows no direct correlation between the defined variables. 

Here are some of the examples

• The consumption of herbal tea has no effect on sleep quality.  (This hypothesis assumes that herbal tea consumption does not impact the quality of sleep.)
• The number of hours spent playing video games is unrelated to academic performance.  (Here, the null hypothesis suggests that no relationship exists between video gameplay duration and academic achievement.)
• Implementing flexible work schedules has no influence on employee job satisfaction.  (This hypothesis contends that providing flexible schedules does not affect how satisfied employees are with their jobs.)
• Writing ability of a 7th grader is not affected by reading editorial example. ( There is no relationship between reading an  editorial example  and improving a 7th grader’s writing abilities.) 
• The type of lighting in a room does not affect people’s mood.  (In this null hypothesis, there is no connection between the kind of lighting in a room and the mood of those present.)
• The use of social media during break time does not impact productivity at work.  (This hypothesis proposes that social media usage during breaks has no effect on work productivity.)

As you learn how to write a hypothesis, remember that aiming for clarity, testability, and relevance to your research question is vital. By mastering this skill, you’re well on your way to conducting impactful scientific research. Good luck!

Importance of a Hypothesis in Research

A well-structured hypothesis is a vital part of any research project for several reasons:

• It provides clear direction for the study by setting its focus and purpose.
• It outlines expectations of the research, making it easier to measure results.
• It helps identify any potential limitations in the study, allowing researchers to refine their approach.

In conclusion, a hypothesis plays a fundamental role in the research process. By understanding its concept and constructing a well-thought-out hypothesis, researchers lay the groundwork for a successful, scientifically sound investigation.

How to Write a Hypothesis?

Here are five steps that you can follow to write an effective hypothesis. 

Step 1: Identify Your Research Question

The first step in learning how to compose a hypothesis is to clearly define your research question. This question is the central focus of your study and will help you determine the direction of your hypothesis.

Step 2: Determine the Variables

When exploring how to write a hypothesis, it’s crucial to identify the variables involved in your study. You’ll need at least two variables:

• Independent variable : The factor you manipulate or change in your experiment.
• Dependent variable : The outcome or result you observe or measure, which is influenced by the independent variable.

Step 3: Build the Hypothetical Relationship

In understanding how to compose a hypothesis, constructing the relationship between the variables is key. Based on your research question and variables, predict the expected outcome or connection. This prediction should be specific, testable, and, if possible, expressed in the “If…then” format.

Step 4: Write the Null Hypothesis

When mastering how to write a hypothesis, it’s important to create a null hypothesis as well. The null hypothesis assumes no relationship or effect between the variables, acting as a counterpoint to your primary hypothesis.

Step 5: Review Your Hypothesis

Finally, when learning how to compose a hypothesis, it’s essential to review your hypothesis for clarity, testability, and relevance to your research question. Make any necessary adjustments to ensure it provides a solid basis for your study.

In conclusion, understanding how to write a hypothesis is crucial for conducting successful scientific research. By focusing on your research question and carefully building relationships between variables, you will lay a strong foundation for advancing research and knowledge in your field.

Hypothesis vs. Prediction: What’s the Difference?

Understanding the differences between a hypothesis and a prediction is crucial in scientific research. Often, these terms are used interchangeably, but they have distinct meanings and functions. This segment aims to clarify these differences and explain how to compose a hypothesis correctly, helping you improve the quality of your research projects.

Hypothesis: The Foundation of Your Research

A hypothesis is an educated guess about the relationship between two or more variables. It provides the basis for your research question and is a starting point for an experiment or observational study.

The critical elements for a hypothesis include:

• Specificity: A clear and concise statement that describes the relationship between variables.
• Testability: The ability to test the hypothesis through experimentation or observation.

To learn how to write a hypothesis, it’s essential to identify your research question first and then predict the relationship between the variables.

Prediction: The Expected Outcome

A prediction is a statement about a specific outcome you expect to see in your experiment or observational study. It’s derived from the hypothesis and provides a measurable way to test the relationship between variables.

Here’s an example of how to write a hypothesis and a related prediction:

• Hypothesis: Consuming a high-sugar diet leads to weight gain.
• Prediction: People who consume a high-sugar diet for six weeks will gain more weight than those who maintain a low-sugar diet during the same period.

Key Differences Between a Hypothesis and a Prediction

While a hypothesis and prediction are both essential components of scientific research, there are some key differences to keep in mind:

• A hypothesis is an educated guess that suggests a relationship between variables, while a prediction is a specific and measurable outcome based on that hypothesis.
• A hypothesis can give rise to multiple experiment or observational study predictions.

To conclude, understanding the differences between a hypothesis and a prediction, and learning how to write a hypothesis, are essential steps to form a robust foundation for your research. By creating clear, testable hypotheses along with specific, measurable predictions, you lay the groundwork for scientifically sound investigations.

Here’s a wrap-up for this guide on how to write a hypothesis. We’re confident this article was helpful for many of you. We understand that many students struggle with writing their school research . However, we hope to continue assisting you through our blog tutorial on writing different aspects of academic assignments.

For further information, you can check out our reverent blog or contact our professionals to avail amazing writing services. Paper perk experts tailor assignments to reflect your unique voice and perspectives. Our professionals make sure to stick around till your satisfaction. So what are you waiting for? Pick your required service and order away!

How to write a good hypothesis?

How to write a hypothesis in science, how to write a research hypothesis, how to write a null hypothesis, what is the format for a scientific hypothesis, how do you structure a proper hypothesis, can you provide an example of a hypothesis, what is the ideal hypothesis structure.

The ideal hypothesis structure includes the following;

• A clear statement of the relationship between variables.
• testable prediction.
• falsifiability.

If your hypothesis has all of these, it is both scientifically sound and effective.

How to write a hypothesis for product management?

Writing a hypothesis for product management involves a simple process:

• First, identify the problem or question you want to address.
• State your assumption or belief about the solution to that problem. .
• Make a hypothesis by predicting a specific outcome based on your assumption.
• Make sure your hypothesis is specific, measurable, and testable.
• Use experiments, data analysis, or user feedback to validate your hypothesis.
• Make informed decisions for product improvement.

Following these steps will help you in effectively formulating hypotheses for product management.

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How to Develop a Good Research Hypothesis

The story of a research study begins by asking a question. Researchers all around the globe are asking curious questions and formulating research hypothesis. However, whether the research study provides an effective conclusion depends on how well one develops a good research hypothesis. Research hypothesis examples could help researchers get an idea as to how to write a good research hypothesis.

This blog will help you understand what is a research hypothesis, its characteristics and, how to formulate a research hypothesis

Table of Contents

What is Hypothesis?

Hypothesis is an assumption or an idea proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested. It is a precise, testable statement of what the researchers predict will be outcome of the study.  Hypothesis usually involves proposing a relationship between two variables: the independent variable (what the researchers change) and the dependent variable (what the research measures).

What is a Research Hypothesis?

Research hypothesis is a statement that introduces a research question and proposes an expected result. It is an integral part of the scientific method that forms the basis of scientific experiments. Therefore, you need to be careful and thorough when building your research hypothesis. A minor flaw in the construction of your hypothesis could have an adverse effect on your experiment. In research, there is a convention that the hypothesis is written in two forms, the null hypothesis, and the alternative hypothesis (called the experimental hypothesis when the method of investigation is an experiment).

Characteristics of a Good Research Hypothesis

As the hypothesis is specific, there is a testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. You may consider drawing hypothesis from previously published research based on the theory.

A good research hypothesis involves more effort than just a guess. In particular, your hypothesis may begin with a question that could be further explored through background research.

To help you formulate a promising research hypothesis, you should ask yourself the following questions:

• Is the language clear and focused?
• What is the relationship between your hypothesis and your research topic?
• Is your hypothesis testable? If yes, then how?
• What are the possible explanations that you might want to explore?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate your variables without hampering the ethical standards?
• Does your research predict the relationship and outcome?
• Is your research simple and concise (avoids wordiness)?
• Is it clear with no ambiguity or assumptions about the readers’ knowledge
• Is your research observable and testable results?
• Is it relevant and specific to the research question or problem?

The questions listed above can be used as a checklist to make sure your hypothesis is based on a solid foundation. Furthermore, it can help you identify weaknesses in your hypothesis and revise it if necessary.

Source: Educational Hub

How to formulate a research hypothesis.

A testable hypothesis is not a simple statement. It is rather an intricate statement that needs to offer a clear introduction to a scientific experiment, its intentions, and the possible outcomes. However, there are some important things to consider when building a compelling hypothesis.

1. State the problem that you are trying to solve.

Make sure that the hypothesis clearly defines the topic and the focus of the experiment.

2. Try to write the hypothesis as an if-then statement.

Follow this template: If a specific action is taken, then a certain outcome is expected.

3. Define the variables

Independent variables are the ones that are manipulated, controlled, or changed. Independent variables are isolated from other factors of the study.

Dependent variables , as the name suggests are dependent on other factors of the study. They are influenced by the change in independent variable.

4. Scrutinize the hypothesis

Evaluate assumptions, predictions, and evidence rigorously to refine your understanding.

Types of Research Hypothesis

The types of research hypothesis are stated below:

1. Simple Hypothesis

It predicts the relationship between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable.

2. Complex Hypothesis

It predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables.

3. Directional Hypothesis

It specifies the expected direction to be followed to determine the relationship between variables and is derived from theory. Furthermore, it implies the researcher’s intellectual commitment to a particular outcome.

4. Non-directional Hypothesis

It does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables. The non-directional hypothesis is used when there is no theory involved or when findings contradict previous research.

5. Associative and Causal Hypothesis

The associative hypothesis defines interdependency between variables. A change in one variable results in the change of the other variable. On the other hand, the causal hypothesis proposes an effect on the dependent due to manipulation of the independent variable.

6. Null Hypothesis

Null hypothesis states a negative statement to support the researcher’s findings that there is no relationship between two variables. There will be no changes in the dependent variable due the manipulation of the independent variable. Furthermore, it states results are due to chance and are not significant in terms of supporting the idea being investigated.

7. Alternative Hypothesis

It states that there is a relationship between the two variables of the study and that the results are significant to the research topic. An experimental hypothesis predicts what changes will take place in the dependent variable when the independent variable is manipulated. Also, it states that the results are not due to chance and that they are significant in terms of supporting the theory being investigated.

Research Hypothesis Examples of Independent and Dependent Variables

Research Hypothesis Example 1 The greater number of coal plants in a region (independent variable) increases water pollution (dependent variable). If you change the independent variable (building more coal factories), it will change the dependent variable (amount of water pollution).

Research Hypothesis Example 2 What is the effect of diet or regular soda (independent variable) on blood sugar levels (dependent variable)? If you change the independent variable (the type of soda you consume), it will change the dependent variable (blood sugar levels)

You should not ignore the importance of the above steps. The validity of your experiment and its results rely on a robust testable hypothesis. Developing a strong testable hypothesis has few advantages, it compels us to think intensely and specifically about the outcomes of a study. Consequently, it enables us to understand the implication of the question and the different variables involved in the study. Furthermore, it helps us to make precise predictions based on prior research. Hence, forming a hypothesis would be of great value to the research. Here are some good examples of testable hypotheses.

More importantly, you need to build a robust testable research hypothesis for your scientific experiments. A testable hypothesis is a hypothesis that can be proved or disproved as a result of experimentation.

Importance of a Testable Hypothesis

To devise and perform an experiment using scientific method, you need to make sure that your hypothesis is testable. To be considered testable, some essential criteria must be met:

• There must be a possibility to prove that the hypothesis is true.
• There must be a possibility to prove that the hypothesis is false.
• The results of the hypothesis must be reproducible.

Without these criteria, the hypothesis and the results will be vague. As a result, the experiment will not prove or disprove anything significant.

What are your experiences with building hypotheses for scientific experiments? What challenges did you face? How did you overcome these challenges? Please share your thoughts with us in the comments section.

Frequently Asked Questions

The steps to write a research hypothesis are: 1. Stating the problem: Ensure that the hypothesis defines the research problem 2. Writing a hypothesis as an 'if-then' statement: Include the action and the expected outcome of your study by following a ‘if-then’ structure. 3. Defining the variables: Define the variables as Dependent or Independent based on their dependency to other factors. 4. Scrutinizing the hypothesis: Identify the type of your hypothesis

Hypothesis testing is a statistical tool which is used to make inferences about a population data to draw conclusions for a particular hypothesis.

Hypothesis in statistics is a formal statement about the nature of a population within a structured framework of a statistical model. It is used to test an existing hypothesis by studying a population.

Research hypothesis is a statement that introduces a research question and proposes an expected result. It forms the basis of scientific experiments.

The different types of hypothesis in research are: • Null hypothesis: Null hypothesis is a negative statement to support the researcher’s findings that there is no relationship between two variables. • Alternate hypothesis: Alternate hypothesis predicts the relationship between the two variables of the study. • Directional hypothesis: Directional hypothesis specifies the expected direction to be followed to determine the relationship between variables. • Non-directional hypothesis: Non-directional hypothesis does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables. • Simple hypothesis: Simple hypothesis predicts the relationship between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable. • Complex hypothesis: Complex hypothesis predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables. • Associative and casual hypothesis: Associative and casual hypothesis predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables. • Empirical hypothesis: Empirical hypothesis can be tested via experiments and observation. • Statistical hypothesis: A statistical hypothesis utilizes statistical models to draw conclusions about broader populations.

Wow! You really simplified your explanation that even dummies would find it easy to comprehend. Thank you so much.

Thanks a lot for your valuable guidance.

I enjoy reading the post. Hypotheses are actually an intrinsic part in a study. It bridges the research question and the methodology of the study.

Useful piece!

This is awesome.Wow.

It very interesting to read the topic, can you guide me any specific example of hypothesis process establish throw the Demand and supply of the specific product in market

Nicely explained

It is really a useful for me Kindly give some examples of hypothesis

It was a well explained content ,can you please give me an example with the null and alternative hypothesis illustrated

clear and concise. thanks.

So Good so Amazing

Good to learn

Thanks a lot for explaining to my level of understanding

Explained well and in simple terms. Quick read! Thank you

It awesome. It has really positioned me in my research project

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General Education

Think about something strange and unexplainable in your life. Maybe you get a headache right before it rains, or maybe you think your favorite sports team wins when you wear a certain color. If you wanted to see whether these are just coincidences or scientific fact, you would form a hypothesis, then create an experiment to see whether that hypothesis is true or not.

But what is a hypothesis, anyway? If you’re not sure about what a hypothesis is--or how to test for one!--you’re in the right place. This article will teach you everything you need to know about hypotheses, including: 

• Defining the term “hypothesis” 
• Providing hypothesis examples 
• Giving you tips for how to write your own hypothesis

So let’s get started!

What Is a Hypothesis?

Merriam Webster defines a hypothesis as “an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument.” In other words, a hypothesis is an educated guess . Scientists make a reasonable assumption--or a hypothesis--then design an experiment to test whether it’s true or not. Keep in mind that in science, a hypothesis should be testable. You have to be able to design an experiment that tests your hypothesis in order for it to be valid. 

As you could assume from that statement, it’s easy to make a bad hypothesis. But when you’re holding an experiment, it’s even more important that your guesses be good...after all, you’re spending time (and maybe money!) to figure out more about your observation. That’s why we refer to a hypothesis as an educated guess--good hypotheses are based on existing data and research to make them as sound as possible.

Hypotheses are one part of what’s called the scientific method .  Every (good) experiment or study is based in the scientific method. The scientific method gives order and structure to experiments and ensures that interference from scientists or outside influences does not skew the results. It’s important that you understand the concepts of the scientific method before holding your own experiment. Though it may vary among scientists, the scientific method is generally made up of six steps (in order):

• Observation
• Asking questions
• Forming a hypothesis
• Analyze the data
• Communicate your results

You’ll notice that the hypothesis comes pretty early on when conducting an experiment. That’s because experiments work best when they’re trying to answer one specific question. And you can’t conduct an experiment until you know what you’re trying to prove!

Independent and Dependent Variables 

After doing your research, you’re ready for another important step in forming your hypothesis: identifying variables. Variables are basically any factor that could influence the outcome of your experiment . Variables have to be measurable and related to the topic being studied.

There are two types of variables:  independent variables and dependent variables. I ndependent variables remain constant . For example, age is an independent variable; it will stay the same, and researchers can look at different ages to see if it has an effect on the dependent variable. 

Speaking of dependent variables... dependent variables are subject to the influence of the independent variable , meaning that they are not constant. Let’s say you want to test whether a person’s age affects how much sleep they need. In that case, the independent variable is age (like we mentioned above), and the dependent variable is how much sleep a person gets. 

Variables will be crucial in writing your hypothesis. You need to be able to identify which variable is which, as both the independent and dependent variables will be written into your hypothesis. For instance, in a study about exercise, the independent variable might be the speed at which the respondents walk for thirty minutes, and the dependent variable would be their heart rate. In your study and in your hypothesis, you’re trying to understand the relationship between the two variables.

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

The best hypotheses start by asking the right questions . For instance, if you’ve observed that the grass is greener when it rains twice a week, you could ask what kind of grass it is, what elevation it’s at, and if the grass across the street responds to rain in the same way. Any of these questions could become the backbone of experiments to test why the grass gets greener when it rains fairly frequently.

As you’re asking more questions about your first observation, make sure you’re also making more observations . If it doesn’t rain for two weeks and the grass still looks green, that’s an important observation that could influence your hypothesis. You'll continue observing all throughout your experiment, but until the hypothesis is finalized, every observation should be noted.

Finally, you should consult secondary research before writing your hypothesis . Secondary research is comprised of results found and published by other people. You can usually find this information online or at your library. Additionally, m ake sure the research you find is credible and related to your topic. If you’re studying the correlation between rain and grass growth, it would help you to research rain patterns over the past twenty years for your county, published by a local agricultural association. You should also research the types of grass common in your area, the type of grass in your lawn, and whether anyone else has conducted experiments about your hypothesis. Also be sure you’re checking the quality of your research . Research done by a middle school student about what minerals can be found in rainwater would be less useful than an article published by a local university.

Writing Your Hypothesis

Once you’ve considered all of the factors above, you’re ready to start writing your hypothesis. Hypotheses usually take a certain form when they’re written out in a research report.

When you boil down your hypothesis statement, you are writing down your best guess and not the question at hand . This means that your statement should be written as if it is fact already, even though you are simply testing it.

The reason for this is that, after you have completed your study, you'll either accept or reject your if-then or your null hypothesis. All hypothesis testing examples should be measurable and able to be confirmed or denied. You cannot confirm a question, only a statement! 

In fact, you come up with hypothesis examples all the time! For instance, when you guess on the outcome of a basketball game, you don’t say, “Will the Miami Heat beat the Boston Celtics?” but instead, “I think the Miami Heat will beat the Boston Celtics.” You state it as if it is already true, even if it turns out you’re wrong. You do the same thing when writing your hypothesis.

Additionally, keep in mind that hypotheses can range from very specific to very broad.  These hypotheses can be specific, but if your hypothesis testing examples involve a broad range of causes and effects, your hypothesis can also be broad.  

The Two Types of Hypotheses

Now that you understand what goes into a hypothesis, it’s time to look more closely at the two most common types of hypothesis: the if-then hypothesis and the null hypothesis.

#1: If-Then Hypotheses

First of all, if-then hypotheses typically follow this formula:

If ____ happens, then ____ will happen.

The goal of this type of hypothesis is to test the causal relationship between the independent and dependent variable. It’s fairly simple, and each hypothesis can vary in how detailed it can be. We create if-then hypotheses all the time with our daily predictions. Here are some examples of hypotheses that use an if-then structure from daily life: 

• If I get enough sleep, I’ll be able to get more work done tomorrow.
• If the bus is on time, I can make it to my friend’s birthday party. 
• If I study every night this week, I’ll get a better grade on my exam. 

In each of these situations, you’re making a guess on how an independent variable (sleep, time, or studying) will affect a dependent variable (the amount of work you can do, making it to a party on time, or getting better grades). 

You may still be asking, “What is an example of a hypothesis used in scientific research?” Take one of the hypothesis examples from a real-world study on whether using technology before bed affects children’s sleep patterns. The hypothesis read s:

“We hypothesized that increased hours of tablet- and phone-based screen time at bedtime would be inversely correlated with sleep quality and child attention.”

It might not look like it, but this is an if-then statement. The researchers basically said, “If children have more screen usage at bedtime, then their quality of sleep and attention will be worse.” The sleep quality and attention are the dependent variables and the screen usage is the independent variable. (Usually, the independent variable comes after the “if” and the dependent variable comes after the “then,” as it is the independent variable that affects the dependent variable.) This is an excellent example of how flexible hypothesis statements can be, as long as the general idea of “if-then” and the independent and dependent variables are present.

#2: Null Hypotheses

Your if-then hypothesis is not the only one needed to complete a successful experiment, however. You also need a null hypothesis to test it against. In its most basic form, the null hypothesis is the opposite of your if-then hypothesis . When you write your null hypothesis, you are writing a hypothesis that suggests that your guess is not true, and that the independent and dependent variables have no relationship .

One null hypothesis for the cell phone and sleep study from the last section might say: 

“If children have more screen usage at bedtime, their quality of sleep and attention will not be worse.” 

In this case, this is a null hypothesis because it’s asking the opposite of the original thesis! 

Conversely, if your if-then hypothesis suggests that your two variables have no relationship, then your null hypothesis would suggest that there is one. So, pretend that there is a study that is asking the question, “Does the amount of followers on Instagram influence how long people spend on the app?” The independent variable is the amount of followers, and the dependent variable is the time spent. But if you, as the researcher, don’t think there is a relationship between the number of followers and time spent, you might write an if-then hypothesis that reads:

“If people have many followers on Instagram, they will not spend more time on the app than people who have less.”

In this case, the if-then suggests there isn’t a relationship between the variables. In that case, one of the null hypothesis examples might say:

“If people have many followers on Instagram, they will spend more time on the app than people who have less.”

You then test both the if-then and the null hypothesis to gauge if there is a relationship between the variables, and if so, how much of a relationship. 

4 Tips to Write the Best Hypothesis

If you’re going to take the time to hold an experiment, whether in school or by yourself, you’re also going to want to take the time to make sure your hypothesis is a good one. The best hypotheses have four major elements in common: plausibility, defined concepts, observability, and general explanation.

#1: Plausibility

At first glance, this quality of a hypothesis might seem obvious. When your hypothesis is plausible, that means it’s possible given what we know about science and general common sense. However, improbable hypotheses are more common than you might think. 

Imagine you’re studying weight gain and television watching habits. If you hypothesize that people who watch more than  twenty hours of television a week will gain two hundred pounds or more over the course of a year, this might be improbable (though it’s potentially possible). Consequently, c ommon sense can tell us the results of the study before the study even begins.

Improbable hypotheses generally go against  science, as well. Take this hypothesis example: 

“If a person smokes one cigarette a day, then they will have lungs just as healthy as the average person’s.” 

This hypothesis is obviously untrue, as studies have shown again and again that cigarettes negatively affect lung health. You must be careful that your hypotheses do not reflect your own personal opinion more than they do scientifically-supported findings. This plausibility points to the necessity of research before the hypothesis is written to make sure that your hypothesis has not already been disproven.

#2: Defined Concepts

The more advanced you are in your studies, the more likely that the terms you’re using in your hypothesis are specific to a limited set of knowledge. One of the hypothesis testing examples might include the readability of printed text in newspapers, where you might use words like “kerning” and “x-height.” Unless your readers have a background in graphic design, it’s likely that they won’t know what you mean by these terms. Thus, it’s important to either write what they mean in the hypothesis itself or in the report before the hypothesis.

Here’s what we mean. Which of the following sentences makes more sense to the common person?

If the kerning is greater than average, more words will be read per minute.

If the space between letters is greater than average, more words will be read per minute.

For people reading your report that are not experts in typography, simply adding a few more words will be helpful in clarifying exactly what the experiment is all about. It’s always a good idea to make your research and findings as accessible as possible. 

Good hypotheses ensure that you can observe the results. 

#3: Observability

In order to measure the truth or falsity of your hypothesis, you must be able to see your variables and the way they interact. For instance, if your hypothesis is that the flight patterns of satellites affect the strength of certain television signals, yet you don’t have a telescope to view the satellites or a television to monitor the signal strength, you cannot properly observe your hypothesis and thus cannot continue your study.

Some variables may seem easy to observe, but if you do not have a system of measurement in place, you cannot observe your hypothesis properly. Here’s an example: if you’re experimenting on the effect of healthy food on overall happiness, but you don’t have a way to monitor and measure what “overall happiness” means, your results will not reflect the truth. Monitoring how often someone smiles for a whole day is not reasonably observable, but having the participants state how happy they feel on a scale of one to ten is more observable. 

In writing your hypothesis, always keep in mind how you'll execute the experiment.

#4: Generalizability 

Perhaps you’d like to study what color your best friend wears the most often by observing and documenting the colors she wears each day of the week. This might be fun information for her and you to know, but beyond you two, there aren’t many people who could benefit from this experiment. When you start an experiment, you should note how generalizable your findings may be if they are confirmed. Generalizability is basically how common a particular phenomenon is to other people’s everyday life.

Let’s say you’re asking a question about the health benefits of eating an apple for one day only, you need to realize that the experiment may be too specific to be helpful. It does not help to explain a phenomenon that many people experience. If you find yourself with too specific of a hypothesis, go back to asking the big question: what is it that you want to know, and what do you think will happen between your two variables?

Hypothesis Testing Examples

We know it can be hard to write a good hypothesis unless you’ve seen some good hypothesis examples. We’ve included four hypothesis examples based on some made-up experiments. Use these as templates or launch pads for coming up with your own hypotheses.

Experiment #1: Students Studying Outside (Writing a Hypothesis)

You are a student at PrepScholar University. When you walk around campus, you notice that, when the temperature is above 60 degrees, more students study in the quad. You want to know when your fellow students are more likely to study outside. With this information, how do you make the best hypothesis possible?

You must remember to make additional observations and do secondary research before writing your hypothesis. In doing so, you notice that no one studies outside when it’s 75 degrees and raining, so this should be included in your experiment. Also, studies done on the topic beforehand suggested that students are more likely to study in temperatures less than 85 degrees. With this in mind, you feel confident that you can identify your variables and write your hypotheses:

If-then: “If the temperature in Fahrenheit is less than 60 degrees, significantly fewer students will study outside.”

Null: “If the temperature in Fahrenheit is less than 60 degrees, the same number of students will study outside as when it is more than 60 degrees.”

These hypotheses are plausible, as the temperatures are reasonably within the bounds of what is possible. The number of people in the quad is also easily observable. It is also not a phenomenon specific to only one person or at one time, but instead can explain a phenomenon for a broader group of people.

To complete this experiment, you pick the month of October to observe the quad. Every day (except on the days where it’s raining)from 3 to 4 PM, when most classes have released for the day, you observe how many people are on the quad. You measure how many people come  and how many leave. You also write down the temperature on the hour. 

After writing down all of your observations and putting them on a graph, you find that the most students study on the quad when it is 70 degrees outside, and that the number of students drops a lot once the temperature reaches 60 degrees or below. In this case, your research report would state that you accept or “failed to reject” your first hypothesis with your findings.

Experiment #2: The Cupcake Store (Forming a Simple Experiment)

Let’s say that you work at a bakery. You specialize in cupcakes, and you make only two colors of frosting: yellow and purple. You want to know what kind of customers are more likely to buy what kind of cupcake, so you set up an experiment. Your independent variable is the customer’s gender, and the dependent variable is the color of the frosting. What is an example of a hypothesis that might answer the question of this study?

Here’s what your hypotheses might look like: 

If-then: “If customers’ gender is female, then they will buy more yellow cupcakes than purple cupcakes.”

Null: “If customers’ gender is female, then they will be just as likely to buy purple cupcakes as yellow cupcakes.”

This is a pretty simple experiment! It passes the test of plausibility (there could easily be a difference), defined concepts (there’s nothing complicated about cupcakes!), observability (both color and gender can be easily observed), and general explanation ( this would potentially help you make better business decisions ).

Experiment #3: Backyard Bird Feeders (Integrating Multiple Variables and Rejecting the If-Then Hypothesis)

While watching your backyard bird feeder, you realized that different birds come on the days when you change the types of seeds. You decide that you want to see more cardinals in your backyard, so you decide to see what type of food they like the best and set up an experiment. 

However, one morning, you notice that, while some cardinals are present, blue jays are eating out of your backyard feeder filled with millet. You decide that, of all of the other birds, you would like to see the blue jays the least. This means you'll have more than one variable in your hypothesis. Your new hypotheses might look like this: 

If-then: “If sunflower seeds are placed in the bird feeders, then more cardinals will come than blue jays. If millet is placed in the bird feeders, then more blue jays will come than cardinals.”

Null: “If either sunflower seeds or millet are placed in the bird, equal numbers of cardinals and blue jays will come.”

Through simple observation, you actually find that cardinals come as often as blue jays when sunflower seeds or millet is in the bird feeder. In this case, you would reject your “if-then” hypothesis and “fail to reject” your null hypothesis . You cannot accept your first hypothesis, because it’s clearly not true. Instead you found that there was actually no relation between your different variables. Consequently, you would need to run more experiments with different variables to see if the new variables impact the results.

Experiment #4: In-Class Survey (Including an Alternative Hypothesis)

You’re about to give a speech in one of your classes about the importance of paying attention. You want to take this opportunity to test a hypothesis you’ve had for a while: 

If-then: If students sit in the first two rows of the classroom, then they will listen better than students who do not.

Null: If students sit in the first two rows of the classroom, then they will not listen better or worse than students who do not.

You give your speech and then ask your teacher if you can hand out a short survey to the class. On the survey, you’ve included questions about some of the topics you talked about. When you get back the results, you’re surprised to see that not only do the students in the first two rows not pay better attention, but they also scored worse than students in other parts of the classroom! Here, both your if-then and your null hypotheses are not representative of your findings. What do you do?

This is when you reject both your if-then and null hypotheses and instead create an alternative hypothesis . This type of hypothesis is used in the rare circumstance that neither of your hypotheses is able to capture your findings . Now you can use what you’ve learned to draft new hypotheses and test again! 

Key Takeaways: Hypothesis Writing

The more comfortable you become with writing hypotheses, the better they will become. The structure of hypotheses is flexible and may need to be changed depending on what topic you are studying. The most important thing to remember is the purpose of your hypothesis and the difference between the if-then and the null . From there, in forming your hypothesis, you should constantly be asking questions, making observations, doing secondary research, and considering your variables. After you have written your hypothesis, be sure to edit it so that it is plausible, clearly defined, observable, and helpful in explaining a general phenomenon.

Writing a hypothesis is something that everyone, from elementary school children competing in a science fair to professional scientists in a lab, needs to know how to do. Hypotheses are vital in experiments and in properly executing the scientific method . When done correctly, hypotheses will set up your studies for success and help you to understand the world a little better, one experiment at a time.

What’s Next?

If you’re studying for the science portion of the ACT, there’s definitely a lot you need to know. We’ve got the tools to help, though! Start by checking out our ultimate study guide for the ACT Science subject test. Once you read through that, be sure to download our recommended ACT Science practice tests , since they’re one of the most foolproof ways to improve your score. (And don’t forget to check out our expert guide book , too.)

If you love science and want to major in a scientific field, you should start preparing in high school . Here are the science classes you should take to set yourself up for success.

If you’re trying to think of science experiments you can do for class (or for a science fair!), here’s a list of 37 awesome science experiments you can do at home

Ashley Sufflé Robinson has a Ph.D. in 19th Century English Literature. As a content writer for PrepScholar, Ashley is passionate about giving college-bound students the in-depth information they need to get into the school of their dreams.

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How to Write a Hypothesis

Last Updated: May 2, 2023 Fact Checked

This article was co-authored by Bess Ruff, MA . Bess Ruff is a Geography PhD student at Florida State University. She received her MA in Environmental Science and Management from the University of California, Santa Barbara in 2016. She has conducted survey work for marine spatial planning projects in the Caribbean and provided research support as a graduate fellow for the Sustainable Fisheries Group. There are 9 references cited in this article, which can be found at the bottom of the page. This article has been fact-checked, ensuring the accuracy of any cited facts and confirming the authority of its sources. This article has been viewed 1,033,484 times.

A hypothesis is a description of a pattern in nature or an explanation about some real-world phenomenon that can be tested through observation and experimentation. The most common way a hypothesis is used in scientific research is as a tentative, testable, and falsifiable statement that explains some observed phenomenon in nature. [1] X Research source Many academic fields, from the physical sciences to the life sciences to the social sciences, use hypothesis testing as a means of testing ideas to learn about the world and advance scientific knowledge. Whether you are a beginning scholar or a beginning student taking a class in a science subject, understanding what hypotheses are and being able to generate hypotheses and predictions yourself is very important. These instructions will help get you started.

Preparing to Write a Hypothesis

• If you are writing a hypothesis for a school assignment, this step may be taken care of for you.

• Focus on academic and scholarly writing. You need to be certain that your information is unbiased, accurate, and comprehensive. Scholarly search databases such as Google Scholar and Web of Science can help you find relevant articles from reputable sources.
• You can find information in textbooks, at a library, and online. If you are in school, you can also ask for help from teachers, librarians, and your peers.

• For example, if you are interested in the effects of caffeine on the human body, but notice that nobody seems to have explored whether caffeine affects males differently than it does females, this could be something to formulate a hypothesis about. Or, if you are interested in organic farming, you might notice that no one has tested whether organic fertilizer results in different growth rates for plants than non-organic fertilizer.
• You can sometimes find holes in the existing literature by looking for statements like “it is unknown” in scientific papers or places where information is clearly missing. You might also find a claim in the literature that seems far-fetched, unlikely, or too good to be true, like that caffeine improves math skills. If the claim is testable, you could provide a great service to scientific knowledge by doing your own investigation. If you confirm the claim, the claim becomes even more credible. If you do not find support for the claim, you are helping with the necessary self-correcting aspect of science.
• Examining these types of questions provides an excellent way for you to set yourself apart by filling in important gaps in a field of study.

• Following the examples above, you might ask: "How does caffeine affect females as compared to males?" or "How does organic fertilizer affect plant growth compared to non-organic fertilizer?" The rest of your research will be aimed at answering these questions.

• Following the examples above, if you discover in the literature that there is a pattern that some other types of stimulants seem to affect females more than males, this could be a clue that the same pattern might be true for caffeine. Similarly, if you observe the pattern that organic fertilizer seems to be associated with smaller plants overall, you might explain this pattern with the hypothesis that plants exposed to organic fertilizer grow more slowly than plants exposed to non-organic fertilizer.

Formulating Your Hypothesis

• You can think of the independent variable as the one that is causing some kind of difference or effect to occur. In the examples, the independent variable would be biological sex, i.e. whether a person is male or female, and fertilizer type, i.e. whether the fertilizer is organic or non-organically-based.
• The dependent variable is what is affected by (i.e. "depends" on) the independent variable. In the examples above, the dependent variable would be the measured impact of caffeine or fertilizer.
• Your hypothesis should only suggest one relationship. Most importantly, it should only have one independent variable. If you have more than one, you won't be able to determine which one is actually the source of any effects you might observe.

• Don't worry too much at this point about being precise or detailed.
• In the examples above, one hypothesis would make a statement about whether a person's biological sex might impact the way the person is affected by caffeine; for example, at this point, your hypothesis might simply be: "a person's biological sex is related to how caffeine affects his or her heart rate." The other hypothesis would make a general statement about plant growth and fertilizer; for example your simple explanatory hypothesis might be "plants given different types of fertilizer are different sizes because they grow at different rates."

• Using our example, our non-directional hypotheses would be "there is a relationship between a person's biological sex and how much caffeine increases the person's heart rate," and "there is a relationship between fertilizer type and the speed at which plants grow."
• Directional predictions using the same example hypotheses above would be : "Females will experience a greater increase in heart rate after consuming caffeine than will males," and "plants fertilized with non-organic fertilizer will grow faster than those fertilized with organic fertilizer." Indeed, these predictions and the hypotheses that allow for them are very different kinds of statements. More on this distinction below.
• If the literature provides any basis for making a directional prediction, it is better to do so, because it provides more information. Especially in the physical sciences, non-directional predictions are often seen as inadequate.

• Where necessary, specify the population (i.e. the people or things) about which you hope to uncover new knowledge. For example, if you were only interested the effects of caffeine on elderly people, your prediction might read: "Females over the age of 65 will experience a greater increase in heart rate than will males of the same age." If you were interested only in how fertilizer affects tomato plants, your prediction might read: "Tomato plants treated with non-organic fertilizer will grow faster in the first three months than will tomato plants treated with organic fertilizer."

• For example, you would not want to make the hypothesis: "red is the prettiest color." This statement is an opinion and it cannot be tested with an experiment. However, proposing the generalizing hypothesis that red is the most popular color is testable with a simple random survey. If you do indeed confirm that red is the most popular color, your next step may be to ask: Why is red the most popular color? The answer you propose is your explanatory hypothesis .

• An easy way to get to the hypothesis for this method and prediction is to ask yourself why you think heart rates will increase if children are given caffeine. Your explanatory hypothesis in this case may be that caffeine is a stimulant. At this point, some scientists write a research hypothesis , a statement that includes the hypothesis, the experiment, and the prediction all in one statement.
• For example, If caffeine is a stimulant, and some children are given a drink with caffeine while others are given a drink without caffeine, then the heart rates of those children given a caffeinated drink will increase more than the heart rate of children given a non-caffeinated drink.

• Using the above example, if you were to test the effects of caffeine on the heart rates of children, evidence that your hypothesis is not true, sometimes called the null hypothesis , could occur if the heart rates of both the children given the caffeinated drink and the children given the non-caffeinated drink (called the placebo control) did not change, or lowered or raised with the same magnitude, if there was no difference between the two groups of children.
• It is important to note here that the null hypothesis actually becomes much more useful when researchers test the significance of their results with statistics. When statistics are used on the results of an experiment, a researcher is testing the idea of the null statistical hypothesis. For example, that there is no relationship between two variables or that there is no difference between two groups. [8] X Research source

Hypothesis Examples

Community Q&A

• Remember that science is not necessarily a linear process and can be approached in various ways. [10] X Research source Thanks Helpful 0 Not Helpful 0
• When examining the literature, look for research that is similar to what you want to do, and try to build on the findings of other researchers. But also look for claims that you think are suspicious, and test them yourself. Thanks Helpful 0 Not Helpful 0
• Be specific in your hypotheses, but not so specific that your hypothesis can't be applied to anything outside your specific experiment. You definitely want to be clear about the population about which you are interested in drawing conclusions, but nobody (except your roommates) will be interested in reading a paper with the prediction: "my three roommates will each be able to do a different amount of pushups." Thanks Helpful 0 Not Helpful 0

You Might Also Like

• ↑ https://undsci.berkeley.edu/for-educators/prepare-and-plan/correcting-misconceptions/#a4
• ↑ https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/general_writing/common_writing_assignments/research_papers/choosing_a_topic.html
• ↑ https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/subject_specific_writing/writing_in_the_social_sciences/writing_in_psychology_experimental_report_writing/experimental_reports_1.html
• ↑ https://www.grammarly.com/blog/how-to-write-a-hypothesis/
• ↑ https://grammar.yourdictionary.com/for-students-and-parents/how-create-hypothesis.html
• ↑ https://flexbooks.ck12.org/cbook/ck-12-middle-school-physical-science-flexbook-2.0/section/1.19/primary/lesson/hypothesis-ms-ps/
• ↑ https://iastate.pressbooks.pub/preparingtopublish/chapter/goal-1-contextualize-the-studys-methods/
• ↑ http://mathworld.wolfram.com/NullHypothesis.html
• ↑ http://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/scienceflowchart

About This Article

Before writing a hypothesis, think of what questions are still unanswered about a specific subject and make an educated guess about what the answer could be. Then, determine the variables in your question and write a simple statement about how they might be related. Try to focus on specific predictions and variables, such as age or segment of the population, to make your hypothesis easier to test. For tips on how to test your hypothesis, read on! Did this summary help you? Yes No

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How To Write a Strong Research Hypothesis

Are you looking to take your research project to the next level? Have you heard of the power of a hypothesis but need to figure out how to formulate one that will unlock potential discoveries? We can help!

So get ready; it's time to dive into unlocking the power of research! This blog post will explore what makes a well-crafted and powerful hypothesis - from identifying a research question to developing supporting evidence.

By learning how to craft a compelling hypothesis, you'll have more tremendous success in every step of your research project.

What are hypotheses, and why are they important?

A hypothesis is an educated guess or a proposition based on limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation. It provides a framework for research and allows researchers to refine their ideas, collect data, and draw conclusions. Hypotheses are essential to the process because they will enable us to organize our thoughts and test theories properly.

Hypotheses are used in many fields , from medicine to psychology to economics. In each area, developing hypotheses based on observations enable researchers to make predictions about their data and guide them toward finding meaningful results.

For example, in medicine, hypotheses can be used to predict which treatments will be most effective for particular conditions or which drugs may have adverse effects when taken together. This allows doctors to make better decisions when caring for patients.

In psychology, hypotheses are often used in experiments to determine whether certain variables influence behavior or mental processes. By testing different combinations of variables, psychologists can identify patterns and understand why people behave the way they do.

In economics, hypotheses provide economists with a framework for analyzing the relationship between economic variables such as wages and consumer spending habits. By understanding these relationships, economists can better understand how economic forces affect the economy.

Overall, hypotheses play an essential role in helping scientists develop new ideas and draw meaningful conclusions from the collected data. Without taking the step to create hypotheses, it would be difficult for researchers to make sense of the vast amounts of information available today and use it effectively in their investigations.

How to determine an effective research question to form your hypothesis

When conducting research, having a compelling research question is critical . Properly formulating this question will allow the researcher to develop their hypothesis. A research question provides a clear and focused goal for your research study and also gives direction on how to get there. A compelling research question should be specific, answerable in the context of your field of study, significant, novel (not already answered by previous studies), and timely – that is, relevant to current events or trends.

Before determining the best research question, you must first understand your topic. Think about the area of knowledge that interests you most and narrow it down to a single theme or concept within this topic. Focus on what interests you most within this theme, and make sure there is room for further exploration and analysis. Once you have chosen a specific topic and narrowed down your focus, you can begin formulating questions related to your project.

To ensure relevance and impact to your field of study, choose questions that address essential issues in the literature or suggest solutions to existing problems. Avoid overly broad topics with unclear objectives; instead, opt for focused questions to enable targeted data collection and analysis with concrete results.

Additionally, consider time frames when formulating questions. If the issue has been discussed extensively in the past but has not been revisited recently, then it's likely not worthy of a new investigation.

Once you have developed some potential questions related to your topic, review them carefully and decide which question best captures the essence of what you want to learn through researching this topic.

Ask yourself:

• Is this question answerable?
• Does it fit within my field of study?
• Is it significant enough?
• Would its findings be novel?

If so, then congratulations! You have identified a compelling research question.

Tips for crafting a well-crafted hypothesis

Once you have formulated the official research question, you may develop the formal hypothesis. When composing a hypothesis, it's essential to think carefully about the question you are trying to answer.

A solid hypothesis should be testable, meaning that it can be verified or disproved through research. It should also be specific and focused on one issue at a time. Here are some tips for crafting a well-crafted hypothesis:

• Consider the goal of your research: Think about what it is that you want to learn or determine from your experiment and make sure that your hypothesis reflects this goal.
• Create an educated guess as to why something is happening: Your hypothesis should explain why something is occurring based on what evidence you already have and direct further investigation into the matter. For example, if you hypothesize that increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will lead to global warming, your research should focus on examining this relationship further.
• Define any variables or parameters involved in the experiment: This includes things like temperature or chemical composition that could potentially affect the outcome of any experiments done in pursuit of testing your hypothesis.
• Use clear and precise language: Make sure your hypothesis is written with clear and precise language so that anyone reading it can understand exactly what you are attempting to investigate or explain. Avoid complex words and keep sentences short whenever possible.

Following these simple tips will help ensure that your hypothesis is well-crafted and ready for testing!

Examples of evidence that can support your hypothesis

When it comes to developing a hypothesis, supporting evidence is essential for making sure it holds up. This evidence helps strengthen the argument that is being driven by providing facts and logical reasoning that support the hypothesis.

Examples of evidence that can be used to back up a hypothesis include using data from experiments, case studies, and other research projects. Data from experiments can provide insight into how certain variables interact to form a particular outcome.

Case studies may offer greater depth in understanding a specific phenomenon's cause and effect; research projects may yield results that confirm or refute existing theories on a subject.

In addition to these traditional forms of evidence, personal experiences or observations can also help to support a hypothesis. For example, if someone's daily commute has been consistently faster since they changed routes, they could use their personal experience to argue that making this change resulted in shorter commutes.

Similarly, suppose someone has witnessed how two variables consistently coincide (i.e., when one goes up, another goes down). In that case, this could be used to support the notion that there is some correlation between these two aspects.

Overall, evidence to support your hypothesis is crucial for ensuring its validity and credibility. While conducting experiments or researching may seem like time-consuming processes, having solid supporting evidence will make it much easier to defend your ideas convincingly when challenged.

Therefore, it is crucial to take the time necessary to gather credible sources of information to provide the most substantial possible backing for your hypotheses.

Understanding the potential of hypotheses and how they can help your research project progress

The power of research lies in the ability to develop and test hypotheses. A hypothesis is a statement or an idea that can be tested to determine its validity.

Essentially, it is a form of educated guesswork that helps researchers form conclusions about their data. By developing a hypothesis for a research project, you are effectively setting up the framework for further exploration.

When developing a hypothesis, you must consider both the expected outcomes and possible alternative explanations. This will help you focus on testing the possible results without getting sidetracked by irrelevant information. Once you have established a concrete hypothesis, it can then be used as a basis for further research and experimentation.

The process of testing hypotheses is an integral part of the scientific method and can help researchers build confidence in their findings and conclusions. Through careful observation and experimentation, researchers can compare their results against what they initially hypothesized, allowing them to draw more accurate conclusions about their data. As such, hypotheses play an essential role in helping researchers connect the dots between different pieces of evidence and form meaningful conclusions.

Overall, understanding how hypotheses can be used in research projects can be immensely beneficial in helping progress towards reaching meaningful insights from their data. By setting up expectations ahead of time and then testing them against real-world conditions, researchers can gain valuable insights that could potentially change the way we understand our world – now that's something worth exploring!

Final thoughts

A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for an observable phenomenon. It's important to note that hypotheses are not the same thing as theories–a theory is a much broader and well-established frame of reference that explains multiple phenomena.

Generally, scientists form a research question and then narrow it down to a testable hypothesis. After making observations and conducting experiments to gather data, researchers can use evidence to support or reject the hypothesis.

By following these steps to formulate a solid hypothesis, you will be on your way to developing a successful research project. Happy researching!

Header image by Bnenin .

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Statistics By Jim

Making statistics intuitive

Hypothesis Testing: Uses, Steps & Example

By Jim Frost 4 Comments

What is Hypothesis Testing?

Hypothesis testing in statistics uses sample data to infer the properties of a whole population . These tests determine whether a random sample provides sufficient evidence to conclude an effect or relationship exists in the population. Researchers use them to help separate genuine population-level effects from false effects that random chance can create in samples. These methods are also known as significance testing.

For example, researchers are testing a new medication to see if it lowers blood pressure. They compare a group taking the drug to a control group taking a placebo. If their hypothesis test results are statistically significant, the medication’s effect of lowering blood pressure likely exists in the broader population, not just the sample studied.

Using Hypothesis Tests

A hypothesis test evaluates two mutually exclusive statements about a population to determine which statement the sample data best supports. These two statements are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . The following are typical examples:

• Null Hypothesis : The effect does not exist in the population.
• Alternative Hypothesis : The effect does exist in the population.

Hypothesis testing accounts for the inherent uncertainty of using a sample to draw conclusions about a population, which reduces the chances of false discoveries. These procedures determine whether the sample data are sufficiently inconsistent with the null hypothesis that you can reject it. If you can reject the null, your data favor the alternative statement that an effect exists in the population.

Statistical significance in hypothesis testing indicates that an effect you see in sample data also likely exists in the population after accounting for random sampling error , variability, and sample size. Your results are statistically significant when the p-value is less than your significance level or, equivalently, when your confidence interval excludes the null hypothesis value.

Conversely, non-significant results indicate that despite an apparent sample effect, you can’t be sure it exists in the population. It could be chance variation in the sample and not a genuine effect.

Learn more about Failing to Reject the Null .

5 Steps of Significance Testing

Hypothesis testing involves five key steps, each critical to validating a research hypothesis using statistical methods:

• Formulate the Hypotheses : Write your research hypotheses as a null hypothesis (H 0 ) and an alternative hypothesis (H A ).
• Data Collection : Gather data specifically aimed at testing the hypothesis.
• Conduct A Test : Use a suitable statistical test to analyze your data.
• Make a Decision : Based on the statistical test results, decide whether to reject the null hypothesis or fail to reject it.
• Report the Results : Summarize and present the outcomes in your report’s results and discussion sections.

While the specifics of these steps can vary depending on the research context and the data type, the fundamental process of hypothesis testing remains consistent across different studies.

Let’s work through these steps in an example!

Hypothesis Testing Example

Researchers want to determine if a new educational program improves student performance on standardized tests. They randomly assign 30 students to a control group , which follows the standard curriculum, and another 30 students to a treatment group, which participates in the new educational program. After a semester, they compare the test scores of both groups.

Download the CSV data file to perform the hypothesis testing yourself: Hypothesis_Testing .

The researchers write their hypotheses. These statements apply to the population, so they use the mu (μ) symbol for the population mean parameter .

• Null Hypothesis (H 0 ) : The population means of the test scores for the two groups are equal (μ 1 = μ 2 ).
• Alternative Hypothesis (H A ) : The population means of the test scores for the two groups are unequal (μ 1 ≠ μ 2 ).

Choosing the correct hypothesis test depends on attributes such as data type and number of groups. Because they’re using continuous data and comparing two means, the researchers use a 2-sample t-test .

Here are the results.

The treatment group’s mean is 58.70, compared to the control group’s mean of 48.12. The mean difference is 10.67 points. Use the test’s p-value and significance level to determine whether this difference is likely a product of random fluctuation in the sample or a genuine population effect.

Because the p-value (0.000) is less than the standard significance level of 0.05, the results are statistically significant, and we can reject the null hypothesis. The sample data provides sufficient evidence to conclude that the new program’s effect exists in the population.

Limitations

Hypothesis testing improves your effectiveness in making data-driven decisions. However, it is not 100% accurate because random samples occasionally produce fluky results. Hypothesis tests have two types of errors, both relating to drawing incorrect conclusions.

• Type I error: The test rejects a true null hypothesis—a false positive.
• Type II error: The test fails to reject a false null hypothesis—a false negative.

Learn more about Type I and Type II Errors .

Our exploration of hypothesis testing using a practical example of an educational program reveals its powerful ability to guide decisions based on statistical evidence. Whether you’re a student, researcher, or professional, understanding and applying these procedures can open new doors to discovering insights and making informed decisions. Let this tool empower your analytical endeavors as you navigate through the vast seas of data.

Learn more about the Hypothesis Tests for Various Data Types .

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Reader Interactions

June 10, 2024 at 10:51 am

Thank you, Jim, for another helpful article; timely too since I have started reading your new book on hypothesis testing and, now that we are at the end of the school year, my district is asking me to perform a number of evaluations on instructional programs. This is where my question/concern comes in. You mention that hypothesis testing is all about testing samples. However, I use all the students in my district when I make these comparisons. Since I am using the entire “population” in my evaluations (I don’t select a sample of third grade students, for example, but I use all 700 third graders), am I somehow misusing the tests? Or can I rest assured that my district’s student population is only a sample of the universal population of students?

June 10, 2024 at 1:50 pm

I hope you are finding the book helpful!

Yes, the purpose of hypothesis testing is to infer the properties of a population while accounting for random sampling error.

In your case, it comes down to how you want to use the results. Who do you want the results to apply to?

If you’re summarizing the sample, looking for trends and patterns, or evaluating those students and don’t plan to apply those results to other students, you don’t need hypothesis testing because there is no sampling error. They are the population and you can just use descriptive statistics. In this case, you’d only need to focus on the practical significance of the effect sizes.

On the other hand, if you want to apply the results from this group to other students, you’ll need hypothesis testing. However, there is the complicating issue of what population your sample of students represent. I’m sure your district has its own unique characteristics, demographics, etc. Your district’s students probably don’t adequately represent a universal population. At the very least, you’d need to recognize any special attributes of your district and how they could bias the results when trying to apply them outside the district. Or they might apply to similar districts in your region.

However, I’d imagine your 3rd graders probably adequately represent future classes of 3rd graders in your district. You need to be alert to changing demographics. At least in the short run I’d imagine they’d be representative of future classes.

Think about how these results will be used. Do they just apply to the students you measured? Then you don’t need hypothesis tests. However, if the results are being used to infer things about other students outside of the sample, you’ll need hypothesis testing along with considering how well your students represent the other students and how they differ.

I hope that helps!

June 10, 2024 at 3:21 pm

Thank you so much, Jim, for the suggestions in terms of what I need to think about and consider! You are always so clear in your explanations!!!!

June 10, 2024 at 3:22 pm

You’re very welcome! Best of luck with your evaluations!

Comments and Questions Cancel reply

AI Generator

When doing a research action plan students in school would know that the first thing to do is to know your topic well enough. From expecting science projects to work based on your predictions and the results that may have been quite the opposite from how you depicted them. This also rings true in businesses. There is a term for that and it is often associated with the subject Science, but can also be associated with business . Scientific method  or a hypothesis.

What Is a Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a scientific wild guess, a prediction in research . A wild guess, a say from someone without any known proof.  A hypothesis can also mean a scientific, educated guess that most scientists and researchers do before planning out or doing experiments to check if their guesses or their scientific ideas based on their topics are exact or correct.

Hypothesis Format

A well-structured hypothesis is crucial for guiding scientific research. Here’s a detailed format for writing a hypothesis, along with examples for each step:

1. Start with a Research Question

Before writing a hypothesis, begin with a clear and concise research question . This question identifies the focus of your study.

Example Research Question: Does the amount of daily exercise affect weight loss?

2. Identify the Variables

Identify the independent and dependent variables in your research question.

• Independent Variable: The variable you manipulate (e.g., amount of daily exercise).
• Dependent Variable: The variable you measure (e.g., weight loss).

3. Formulate the Hypothesis

Use the identified variables to create a testable statement . This statement should clearly express the expected relationship between the variables.

• If [independent variable], then [dependent variable].
• [Independent variable] will [effect] [dependent variable].

Directional vs. Non-Directional Hypothesis:

• Specifies the direction of the expected relationship.
• Does not specify the direction of the expected relationship, only that a relationship exists.

4. Example Hypotheses Using the Format

Research question: does caffeine affect cognitive performance, if-then statement:.

• Example: If individuals consume caffeine, then their cognitive performance will improve.

Direct Statement:

• Example: Caffeine consumption will improve cognitive performance.

Null Hypothesis (H0):

• Example: There is no significant effect of caffeine consumption on cognitive performance.

Alternative Hypothesis (H1):

• Example: There is a significant effect of caffeine consumption on cognitive performance.

Directional Hypothesis:

Non-directional hypothesis:.

• Example: There is a relationship between caffeine consumption and cognitive performance.

5. Refining the Hypothesis

Ensure that your hypothesis is specific, measurable, and testable. Avoid vague terms and focus on a single independent and dependent variable.

Hypothesis Examples in Research

A hypothesis is a statement that predicts the relationship between variables. It serves as a foundation for research by providing a clear focus and direction for experiments and data analysis . Here are examples of hypotheses from various fields of research:

Research Question:

Does sunlight exposure affect plant growth?

Hypotheses:

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in plant growth between plants exposed to sunlight and those kept in the shade.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Plants exposed to sunlight grow taller than those kept in the shade.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased sunlight exposure will lead to increased plant growth.
• If-Then Statement: If plants are exposed to more sunlight, then they will grow taller.

2. Psychology

Does sleep duration affect memory retention?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in memory retention between individuals who sleep for 8 hours and those who sleep for 4 hours.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Individuals who sleep for 8 hours will have better memory retention than those who sleep for 4 hours.
• Directional Hypothesis: Longer sleep duration will improve memory retention.
• If-Then Statement: If individuals sleep for 8 hours, then their memory retention will improve compared to those who sleep for 4 hours.

3. Education

Do interactive teaching methods improve student engagement?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in student engagement between interactive teaching methods and traditional lecture-based methods.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Interactive teaching methods result in higher student engagement compared to traditional lecture-based methods.
• Directional Hypothesis: Interactive teaching methods will increase student engagement.
• If-Then Statement: If teachers use interactive teaching methods, then student engagement will increase.

4. Medicine

Does a new drug reduce blood pressure more effectively than the standard medication?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in blood pressure reduction between the new drug and the standard medication.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The new drug reduces blood pressure more effectively than the standard medication.
• Directional Hypothesis: The new drug will reduce blood pressure more than the standard medication.
• If-Then Statement: If patients take the new drug, then their blood pressure will decrease more than if they take the standard medication.

5. Sociology

Does socioeconomic status affect access to higher education?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant relationship between socioeconomic status and access to higher education.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Higher socioeconomic status is associated with greater access to higher education.
• Directional Hypothesis: Individuals with higher socioeconomic status will have greater access to higher education.
• If-Then Statement: If individuals have a higher socioeconomic status, then they will have greater access to higher education.

Hypothesis Examples in Psychology

Psychology research often explores the relationships between various cognitive, behavioral, and emotional variables. Here are some well-structured hypothesis examples in psychology:

1. Sleep Duration and Memory Retention

• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between sleep duration and memory retention.

2. Exercise and Anxiety Levels

Does regular exercise reduce anxiety levels?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in anxiety levels between individuals who exercise regularly and those who do not.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Individuals who exercise regularly will have lower anxiety levels than those who do not.
• Directional Hypothesis: Regular exercise will decrease anxiety levels.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between regular exercise and anxiety levels.
• If-Then Statement: If individuals exercise regularly, then their anxiety levels will decrease.

3. Social Media Usage and Self-Esteem

Does social media usage affect self-esteem in teenagers?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant relationship between social media usage and self-esteem in teenagers.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): High social media usage is associated with lower self-esteem in teenagers.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased social media usage will decrease self-esteem in teenagers.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between social media usage and self-esteem in teenagers.
• If-Then Statement: If teenagers spend more time on social media, then their self-esteem will decrease.

4. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Depression

Is Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) effective in reducing symptoms of depression?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in depression symptoms between individuals who undergo CBT and those who do not.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Individuals who undergo CBT will experience a greater reduction in depression symptoms than those who do not.
• Directional Hypothesis: CBT will reduce symptoms of depression.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between undergoing CBT and reduction in depression symptoms.
• If-Then Statement: If individuals undergo CBT, then their symptoms of depression will decrease.

5. Parental Involvement and Academic Achievement

Does parental involvement influence academic achievement in children?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant relationship between parental involvement and academic achievement in children.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Higher levels of parental involvement are associated with higher academic achievement in children.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased parental involvement will improve academic achievement in children.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between parental involvement and academic achievement in children.
• If-Then Statement: If parents are more involved in their children’s education, then their children will achieve higher academic success.

Hypothesis Examples in Science

Scientific research often involves creating hypotheses to test the relationships between variables. Here are some well-structured hypothesis examples from various fields of science:

1. Biology: Sunlight and Plant Growth

• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between sunlight exposure and plant growth.

2. Chemistry: Temperature and Reaction Rate

Does temperature affect the rate of a chemical reaction?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in the reaction rate of a chemical reaction at different temperatures.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Increasing the temperature will increase the reaction rate.
• Directional Hypothesis: Higher temperatures will increase the reaction rate.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between temperature and the reaction rate.
• If-Then Statement: If the temperature of a reaction increases, then the reaction rate will increase.

3. Physics: Mass and Free Fall Speed

Does the mass of an object affect its speed when falling?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in the falling speed of objects with different masses.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Objects with greater mass fall faster than those with lesser mass.
• Directional Hypothesis: Heavier objects will fall faster than lighter objects.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between the mass of an object and its falling speed.
• If-Then Statement: If an object’s mass increases, then its falling speed will increase.

4. Environmental Science: Fertilizers and Water Quality

Do chemical fertilizers affect water quality in nearby lakes?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant effect of chemical fertilizers on the water quality of nearby lakes.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Chemical fertilizers negatively affect the water quality of nearby lakes.
• Directional Hypothesis: The use of chemical fertilizers will decrease the water quality of nearby lakes.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between the use of chemical fertilizers and the water quality of nearby lakes.
• If-Then Statement: If chemical fertilizers are used, then the water quality in nearby lakes will decrease.

5. Earth Science: Soil Composition and Erosion Rate

Does soil composition affect the rate of erosion?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in the erosion rate of soils with different compositions.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Soil composition affects the rate of erosion.
• Directional Hypothesis: Soils with higher clay content will erode more slowly than sandy soils.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between soil composition and the rate of erosion.
• If-Then Statement: If soil has a higher clay content, then its erosion rate will be lower compared to sandy soil.

Hypothesis Examples in Biology

In biology, hypotheses are used to explore relationships and effects within biological systems. Here are some well-structured hypothesis examples in various areas of biology:

1. Photosynthesis and Light Intensity

How does light intensity affect the rate of photosynthesis in plants?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Light intensity has no significant effect on the rate of photosynthesis in plants.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Light intensity significantly affects the rate of photosynthesis in plants.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased light intensity will increase the rate of photosynthesis in plants.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between light intensity and the rate of photosynthesis in plants.
• If-Then Statement: If light intensity increases, then the rate of photosynthesis in plants will increase.

2. Temperature and Enzyme Activity

How does temperature affect the activity of the enzyme amylase?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Temperature has no significant effect on the activity of the enzyme amylase.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Temperature significantly affects the activity of the enzyme amylase.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increasing the temperature will increase the activity of the enzyme amylase up to an optimal point, after which activity will decrease.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between temperature and the activity of the enzyme amylase.
• If-Then Statement: If the temperature increases, then the activity of the enzyme amylase will increase up to an optimal temperature, after which it will decrease.

3. Nutrient Availability and Plant Growth

Does the availability of nutrients in soil affect the growth of plants?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Nutrient availability has no significant effect on the growth of plants.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Nutrient availability significantly affects the growth of plants.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased nutrient availability will enhance plant growth.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between nutrient availability and plant growth.
• If-Then Statement: If nutrient availability in the soil increases, then the growth of plants will be enhanced.

4. Genetic Variation and Disease Resistance

Does genetic variation in a population affect its resistance to diseases?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Genetic variation has no significant effect on disease resistance in a population.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Genetic variation significantly affects disease resistance in a population.
• Directional Hypothesis: Populations with greater genetic variation will have higher resistance to diseases.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between genetic variation and disease resistance in a population.
• If-Then Statement: If a population has greater genetic variation, then its resistance to diseases will be higher.

5. Water pH and Aquatic Life Health

Does the pH level of water affect the health of aquatic life?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): The pH level of water has no significant effect on the health of aquatic life.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The pH level of water significantly affects the health of aquatic life.
• Directional Hypothesis: Extreme pH levels (both high and low) will negatively affect the health of aquatic life.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between the pH level of water and the health of aquatic life.
• If-Then Statement: If the pH level of water is too high or too low, then the health of aquatic life will be negatively affected.

Hypothesis Examples in Sociology

In sociology, hypotheses are used to explore and explain social phenomena, behaviors, and relationships within societies. Here are some well-structured hypothesis examples in various areas of sociology:

1. Education and Social Mobility

Does access to higher education affect social mobility?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Access to higher education has no significant effect on social mobility.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Access to higher education significantly affects social mobility.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased access to higher education will improve social mobility.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between access to higher education and social mobility.
• If-Then Statement: If individuals have increased access to higher education, then their social mobility will improve.

2. Income Inequality and Crime Rates

Does income inequality influence crime rates in urban areas?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Income inequality has no significant effect on crime rates in urban areas.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Income inequality significantly affects crime rates in urban areas.
• Directional Hypothesis: Higher income inequality will lead to higher crime rates in urban areas.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between income inequality and crime rates in urban areas.
• If-Then Statement: If income inequality increases, then crime rates in urban areas will increase.

3. Social Media Use and Social Interaction

Does the use of social media affect face-to-face social interactions among teenagers?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): The use of social media has no significant effect on face-to-face social interactions among teenagers.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The use of social media significantly affects face-to-face social interactions among teenagers.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased use of social media will decrease face-to-face social interactions among teenagers.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between the use of social media and face-to-face social interactions among teenagers.
• If-Then Statement: If teenagers use social media more frequently, then their face-to-face social interactions will decrease.

4. Gender Roles and Career Choices

Do traditional gender roles influence career choices among young adults?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Traditional gender roles have no significant effect on career choices among young adults.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Traditional gender roles significantly affect career choices among young adults.
• Directional Hypothesis: Adherence to traditional gender roles will limit career choices among young adults.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between traditional gender roles and career choices among young adults.
• If-Then Statement: If young adults adhere to traditional gender roles, then their career choices will be limited.

5. Cultural Diversity and Workplace Productivity

Does cultural diversity in the workplace affect productivity levels?

• Null Hypothesis (H0): Cultural diversity in the workplace has no significant effect on productivity levels.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Cultural diversity in the workplace significantly affects productivity levels.
• Directional Hypothesis: Increased cultural diversity will improve productivity levels in the workplace.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: There is a relationship between cultural diversity in the workplace and productivity levels.
• If-Then Statement: If the workplace has increased cultural diversity, then productivity levels will improve.

More Hypothesis Samples & Examples in PDF

1. research hypothesis.

2. Education Hypothesis

3. Basic Hypothesis

4. Hypothesis Statement Template

5. Hypothesis in PDF

6. Hypothesis Format

7. Hypothesis Examples

8. Simple Hypothesis

Types of Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested and is often used in scientific research to propose a relationship between two or more variables. Understanding the different types of hypotheses is essential for conducting effective research. Below are the main types of hypotheses:

1. Null Hypothesis (H0)

The null hypothesis states that there is no relationship between the variables being studied. It assumes that any observed effect is due to chance. Researchers often aim to disprove the null hypothesis.

Example: There is no significant difference in test scores between students who study with music and those who study in silence.

2. Alternative Hypothesis (H1 or Ha)

The alternative hypothesis suggests that there is a relationship between the variables being studied. It is what researchers seek to prove.

Example: Students who study with music have higher test scores than those who study in silence.

3. Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis predicts a relationship between a single independent variable and a single dependent variable.

Example: Increasing the amount of sunlight will increase the growth rate of plants.

4. Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis predicts a relationship involving two or more independent variables and/or two or more dependent variables.

Example: Increasing sunlight and water will increase the growth rate and height of plants.

5. Directional Hypothesis

A directional hypothesis specifies the direction of the expected relationship between variables. It suggests whether the relationship is positive or negative.

Example: Students who study for more hours will score higher on exams.

6. Non-Directional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis does not specify the direction of the relationship. It only states that a relationship exists.

Example: There is a difference in test scores between students who study with music and those who study in silence.

7. Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis involves quantitative data and can be tested using statistical methods. It often includes both null and alternative hypotheses.

Example: The mean test scores of students who study with music are significantly different from those who study in silence.

8. Causal Hypothesis

A causal hypothesis proposes a cause-and-effect relationship between variables. It suggests that one variable causes a change in another.

Example: Smoking causes lung cancer.

9. Associative Hypothesis

An associative hypothesis suggests that variables are related but does not imply causation.

Example: There is an association between physical activity levels and body weight.

10. Research Hypothesis

A research hypothesis is a broad statement that serves as the foundation for the research study. It is often the same as the alternative hypothesis.

Example: Implementing a new teaching strategy will improve student engagement and performance.

How To Use Hypothesis for Research?

A hypothesis is a critical component of the research process, providing a clear direction for the study and forming the basis for drawing conclusions. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to use a hypothesis in research:

1. Identify the Research Problem

Before formulating a hypothesis, clearly define the research problem or question. This step involves understanding what you aim to investigate and why it is significant.

Example: You want to study the impact of sleep on academic performance among college students.

2. Review Existing Literature

Conduct a thorough review of existing literature to understand what is already known about the topic. This helps in identifying gaps in knowledge and forming a basis for your hypothesis.

Example: Previous studies suggest a positive correlation between sleep duration and academic performance but lack specific data on college students.

Based on the research problem and literature review, formulate a clear and testable hypothesis. Ensure it is specific and relates directly to the variables being studied.

Types of Hypotheses:

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no significant relationship between sleep duration and academic performance among college students.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): There is a significant relationship between sleep duration and academic performance among college students.

4. Define Variables

Clearly define the independent and dependent variables involved in the hypothesis.

• Independent Variable: Sleep duration
• Dependent Variable: Academic performance (e.g., GPA)

5. Design the Study

Choose an appropriate research design to test the hypothesis. This could be experimental, correlational, or observational, depending on the nature of your research question.

Example: Conduct a correlational study to examine the relationship between sleep duration and GPA among college students.

6. Collect Data

Gather data through surveys, experiments, or secondary data sources. Ensure the data collection methods are reliable and valid to accurately test the hypothesis.

Example: Use a questionnaire to collect data on students’ sleep duration and their GPAs.

7. Analyze the Data

Use appropriate statistical methods to analyze the data. This step involves testing the hypothesis to determine whether to accept or reject the null hypothesis.

Example: Perform a Pearson correlation analysis to examine the relationship between sleep duration and GPA.

8. Interpret the Results

Interpret the results of the statistical analysis. Determine if the data supports the alternative hypothesis or if the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.

Example: If the analysis shows a significant positive correlation, you can reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that sleep duration is related to academic performance.

9. Draw Conclusions

Draw conclusions based on the results of the hypothesis testing. Discuss the implications of the findings and how they contribute to the existing body of knowledge.

Example: Conclude that longer sleep duration is associated with higher GPA among college students and discuss potential implications for student health and academic policies.

10. Report and Share Findings

Write a detailed report or research paper presenting the hypothesis, methodology, results, and conclusions. Share your findings with the academic community or relevant stakeholders.

Example: Publish the study in a peer-reviewed journal or present it at an academic conference.

How to Write a Hypothesis?

Writing a hypothesis is a crucial step in the scientific method. A well-constructed hypothesis guides your research, helping you design experiments and analyze results. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to write an effective hypothesis:

1. Understand the Research Question

Start by clearly understanding the research question or problem you want to address. This helps in formulating a focused hypothesis.

Example: How does sunlight exposure affect plant growth?

2. Conduct Preliminary Research

Review existing literature related to your research question. This helps in understanding what is already known and identifying gaps in knowledge.

Example: Studies show that plants generally grow better with more sunlight, but the optimal amount varies.

3. Identify Variables

Determine the independent and dependent variables for your study.

• Independent Variable: The factor you manipulate (e.g., sunlight exposure).
• Dependent Variable: The factor you measure (e.g., plant growth).

4. Formulate a Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis involves one independent and one dependent variable. Clearly state the expected relationship between these variables.

Example: Increasing sunlight exposure will increase plant growth.

5. Choose the Type of Hypothesis

Decide whether your hypothesis will be null or alternative, directional or non-directional.

• Null Hypothesis (H0): There is no relationship between the variables.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): There is a relationship between the variables.
• Directional Hypothesis: Specifies the direction of the relationship.
• Non-Directional Hypothesis: Does not specify the direction.

Example of Directional Hypothesis: Plants exposed to more sunlight will grow taller than those exposed to less sunlight.

6. Ensure Testability

Make sure your hypothesis can be tested through experiments or observations. It should be measurable and falsifiable.

Example: Plants will be grown under different levels of sunlight, and their growth will be measured over time.

7. Write the Hypothesis

Write your hypothesis in a clear, concise, and specific manner. It should include the variables and the expected relationship between them.

Example: If plants are exposed to increased sunlight, then they will grow taller compared to plants that receive less sunlight.

8. Refine the Hypothesis

Ensure that your hypothesis is specific and narrow enough to be testable but broad enough to cover the scope of your research.

Example: If tomato plants are exposed to 8 hours of sunlight per day, then they will grow taller and produce more fruit compared to tomato plants exposed to 4 hours of sunlight per day.

How Do You Formulate a Hypothesis?

To formulate a hypothesis, identify the research question, review existing literature, define variables, and create a testable statement predicting the relationship between the variables.

What Is the Difference Between Null and Alternative Hypotheses?

The null hypothesis (H0) states there is no effect or relationship, while the alternative hypothesis (H1) proposes that there is an effect or relationship.

Why Is a Hypothesis Important in Research?

A hypothesis provides a clear focus for the study, guiding the research design, data collection, and analysis, ultimately helping to draw meaningful conclusions.

Can a Hypothesis Be Proven True?

A hypothesis cannot be proven true; it can only be supported or refuted through experimentation and analysis. Even if supported, it remains open to further testing.

What Makes a Good Hypothesis?

A good hypothesis is clear, concise, specific, testable, and based on existing knowledge. It should predict a relationship between variables that can be measured.

How Is a Hypothesis Tested?

A hypothesis is tested through experiments or observations, collecting and analyzing data to determine if the results support or refute the hypothesis.

What Are the Types of Hypotheses?

Types of hypotheses include null, alternative, simple, complex, directional, non-directional, statistical, causal, and associative.

What Is a Directional Hypothesis?

A directional hypothesis specifies the expected direction of the relationship between variables, indicating whether the effect will be positive or negative.

What Is a Non-Directional Hypothesis?

A non-directional hypothesis states that a relationship exists between variables but does not specify the direction of the relationship.

How Do You Refine a Hypothesis?

Refine a hypothesis by ensuring it is specific, measurable, and testable. Remove any vague terms and focus on a single independent and dependent variable.

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• Published: 20 June 2024

The influence of robot applications on rural labor transfer

• Kaizhi Yu 1   na1 ,
• Yao Shi   ORCID: orcid.org/0009-0005-0851-6655 1 &
• Jiahan Feng 1   na1  

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications volume  11 , Article number:  796 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Science, technology and society

Employment is a pivotal driver for ensuring and enhancing people’s livelihoods, with stable employment forming the bedrock for achieving high-quality economic development. In this study, CMDS data from 2014–2018, IFR data, and micro-data from China’s Second National Economic Census were utilized to analyze the impact of robot applications on rural labor migration in China, exploring both theoretical and empirical dimensions, particularly the crowding-out effect. The research findings suggest that robot applications influence labor demand through expansion and substitution effects. The results show robot applications significantly increased the probability of rural labor considering re-migration, with a 1% increase in urban robot density resulting in a 0.249% increase in the likelihood of rural labor re-migration. In addition, robot applications were found to reduce the migration rate of urban labor and increase the probability of rural laborers returning to the agricultural sector. Based on mechanism analyses, robot applications were found to have pronounced passive effects in accelerating rural labor migration, particularly among groups with lower skill levels, individuals aged over 44, those in low-skilled occupations, those possessing strong mobility, and those residing in economically developed areas. The conclusions of this study provide new insights for stabilizing employment and optimizing rural labor migration in the context of artificial intelligence development.

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Introduction.

Amidst the new wave of technological revolution and industrial change, exploring innovative means to improve production efficiency has emerged as a critical issue that needs to be addressed urgently in contemporary society. Along with the Internet, big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI) has continually expanded its applications across various fields, with robotics emerging as a novel form of intelligent equipment. Reports from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suggest that robotic technology now spans 60 industrial categories and 168 subsectors of the national economy, profoundly influencing both production processes and daily life Footnote 1 . As the demographic dividend fades, escalating labor costs are compelling an increasing number of firms to adopt sophisticated production technologies, notably including robotics. In 2022, China experienced a 5% increase in robotic installations, reaching 290,258 units, constituting 52% of the global aggregate Footnote 2 . While this surge in robotic deployment has markedly enhanced production efficiency and expanded operational scale, it has also raised concerns about potential job risks (Frey and Osborne, 2017 ; Javed, 2023 ). Currently, the Chinese labor market faces constraints arising from an aging population and diminishing fertility rates. This demographic shift signals the gradual decline of the traditional demographic dividend, posing risks not only to employment stability but also affecting social efficiency and equity. Enhancing the adaptability and stability of employment can facilitate market-oriented resource allocation and enhance coordinated regional development, in which maintaining employment stability of the rural migrant workforce directly correlates with the stable increase in the income levels of the poverty-stricken population, the high-quality employment of the rural labor force, and the development of labor market integration. The rural floating population represents a significant demographic segment, with China experiencing a population increase from 221 million in 2010 to 376 million in 2020, marking an average annual growth rate of 8.3% over this period Footnote 3 . In addition, the scope of rural labor mobility is expansive, with data from China’s 2020 population census displaying the country’s inter-municipal mobile population at 376 million. Of which, the inter-provincial mobile population accounted for 125 million, while the intra-provincial mobile population reached 251 million Footnote 4 . While this substantial migrant workforce has been pivotal to China’s economic and social progress, it faces considerable pressure to achieve stable employment. Therefore, exploring the impact of robot applications on the migrant population holds practical significance.

Unlike previous advancements in technology, the effects of robot applications on the labor market remain uncertain. On one hand, robots eliminate certain repetitive and labor-intensive jobs, increasing the risk of unemployment for those in low-skill positions (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2020 ). On the other hand, robot applications can enhance production efficiency and facilitate the expansion of production scales, yielding a positive impact on the labor market (Graetz and Michaels, 2018 ; Huang et al., 2022 ; Wang et al., 2024a ). The rural labor workforce, predominantly engaged in low-tech and monotonous tasks, is more significantly affected by such disruptions. This particular demographic may face unemployment, be compelled to transition into alternative sectors, or relocate in pursuit of new employment opportunities. Previous studies have largely focused on local labor markets, overlooking the impact on labor’s spatial mobility. Academic research on labor migration encompasses various dimensions including technological progress (Yuan and Pan, 2023 ), policy interventions (Chen et al., 2019b ), migration costs (Lin et al., 2022 ), transportation infrastructure (Han and Kung, 2015 ), and unique urban characteristics (Luong et al., 2023 ). While studies such as Brougham and Haar ( 2020 ), which utilized data from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand, have noted that the adoption of robotics tends to steer the workforce towards job transitions, these explorations mainly cover developed countries, often falling short in comprehensively analyzing the effects of robotics on labor mobility. The movement of labor across regions represents not only an individual’s pursuit of maximizing utility but also a reallocation of labor resources. Therefore, investigating labor mobility across regions is crucial for achieving a rational distribution of labor, fostering high-quality development, and enhancing living standards.

This paper explores the rapidly expanding domain of robot applications, focusing particularly on their implications for employment stability, the migration of rural laborers, and the underlying mechanisms driving this process. This study also examines the effects of robotic applications on income distribution and production efficiency. Utilizing the ‘Bartik IV’ approach, a comprehensive index system is used to measure urban robot stock density and analyze the secondary sector workforce using data from the China Migrant Dynamic Survey (CMDS) for 2014–2018.

Our findings suggest that a 1% increase in urban robot application density is correlated with a 0.249% increase in the likelihood of rural laborers contemplating relocation, as validated by several robustness tests. Urban robot applications were found to reduce the migration rate of urban laborers and increase the probability of rural labor returning to the agricultural sector. Probing the mechanisms underlying the initial regression results, our results showed a notable passive crowding effect attributable to robotic applications. The impact of robotic applications on the willingness of laborers to transfer is further evidenced by an increase in working hours. The effect of robot applications on accelerating rural labor transfer is particularly pronounced among lower-skilled workers, individuals over 44, those in low-skill jobs, highly mobile demographic groups, and those in economically developed areas. Further analyses suggest that robot application contributes to an increase in regional average wages (a 1% increase in urban robot density corresponded to a 0.086% increase in the average wage level of rural laborers). In terms of production efficiency, the utilization of robots was observed to enhance the productivity of urban labor.

The primary contributions of this article are as follows: First, the current literature has mainly focused on local labor markets, while the impact of robot applications on resource allocation has largely been overlooked. Given the significant number of rural migrants in China and their more pronounced response to robotics technology, this study focuses on the rural migrant population. By quantitatively analyzing the impact of robot applications on the rural labor market, particularly on the crowding-out effect, this approach provides a novel perspective on understanding the broader implications of robot applications on labor market dynamics. Second, this study diverges from the majority of existing studies that typically assess the overall impact of robot applications on the labor market, based primarily on the perspectives of labor skills, gender, and hukou (household registration) status. In this study, a micro-level individual perspective is adopted for deeper insights. The crowding-out effect can then be differentiated into active and passive types, based on variables such as employment status, insurance participation, and migration intentions. This nuanced approach is employed to explore the mechanisms through which robot applications influence rural labor migration. The results can provide substantive guidance for government policy in order to refine the employment mechanisms for the migrant population, encourage a systematic and orderly migration of rural labor, and ensure stability in the rural labor employment market. Third, given the significant heterogeneity in labor skill demands arising from robot applications, this study adopted and refined the simplified task framework proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo ( 2022 ). But instead of solely categorizing tasks into labor-intensive and robot-intensive segments, our approach allows the consideration of the influence of robotic technological advancements on task variety, integrating the workforce skill levels into the task model. Our study systematically analyzes the impact of robot applications on labor demand, exploring expansion effects and substitution effects. In addition, inspired by the labor migration framework proposed by Chen et al. ( 2022 ), this study comprehensively examines the impact of robot applications on labor mobility, providing a theoretical foundation for analyzing the broader implications of robot applications on the labor market.

The rest of this paper is arranged as follows: The literature review section systematically explores existing research on the rural labor market, labor mobility, and the application of robots, establishing a foundation for further analysis. In the theoretical analysis section, labor mobility and robot application are integrated into a unified theoretical framework, and relevant hypotheses are formulated to guide the empirical investigation. The research design section outlines the current state of rural labor mobility and the developmental trends within the robotics industry, defining essential variables for the study and conducting a descriptive analysis of these variables. In the empirical research section, the impact of robotics applications on rural labor mobility is discussed, and the results are tested for robustness. The mechanisms through which robot applications influence labor mobility are analyzed from various angles, including transfer willingness, skill level, mobility, regional economic development, and income. In the further analysis section, the investigation is expanded to explore the effects of robot applications on specific vulnerable groups and the allocation of factors. The paper concludes with the conclusions and policy recommendations section, wherein the main findings are summarized and policy suggestions are proposed regarding the future direction of the robotics industry and the enhancement of employment promotion mechanisms for rural labor.

Literature review

China’s class stratification diverges significantly from that of the West, primarily due to the intricate interplay between the dual economic structure and the dual social system. This has resulted in a socially stratified framework marked by multiple divisions, as manifested by the segregation stemming from the urban-rural divide. Within this context, research has focused mainly on three main areas: First, the inequality in the factor exchange between urban and rural areas has received considerable research focus. For example, Meng and Zhao ( 2018 ) highlighted the disadvantaged position of rural areas in factor allocation, directly impacting the efficiency of allocating resources like capital, labor, and technology. Second, research has highlighted the imbalanced allocation of public resources between urban and rural areas. For instance, Cao et al. ( 2024 ), through their analysis of Nanjing, China, found the effects of municipal transportation and urban enterprise density on the development of the urban-rural interface. Lastly, the impediment in urban-rural circulation has become a major research focus. In one study, Liu et al. ( 2013 ) analyzed the urban-rural development patterns in China from 1996 to 2009 and pinpointed policies, institutions, and urbanization as critical drivers of changes in the spatial-temporal urban-rural landscape.

Given the growing emphasis on the challenges facing rural development in China, scholars have explored various issues, including rural labor force employment (Zhang et al., 2021 ), rural land rights (Bu and Liao, 2022 ), rural poverty reduction (Zhang et al., 2023 ), the urban-rural income disparity (Wang et al., 2024b ), and resource misallocation (Chari et al., 2021 ). Amidst the evolution of emerging technologies, the substantial size and relatively low educational level of China’s rural workforce underscore the impediments to employment security. Examining the effects of robotic technology on the mobility of rural labor would be crucial to improving the mechanisms that promote rural labor employment and ensuring the stability of rural labor employment.

Labor mobility transfer factors

Labor mobility is essential to China’s economic growth and productivity enhancement, offering a potential solution to rural labor poverty. Imbalances in regional resource allocation have necessitated labor migration, which can broaden employment opportunities for local workers and mitigate the downward wage pressure on the non-mobile population exerted by the mobile population (Hong and McLaren, 2015 ). Research on labor migration has explored various dimensions such as technological advances, policy interventions, migration costs, and urban characteristics (Su et al., 2018 ; Lewis and Peri, 2015 ). For example, from a technological advancement perspective, Yuan and Pan ( 2023 ) used data from publicly listed companies and found that digital technology optimized labor allocation and expanded the unconventional workforce. Chen et al. ( 2019a ) suggested that the gig economy had a significant influence on labor employment choices and their spatial distribution. In terms of policy interventions, An et al. ( 2024 ) utilized China’s 2014 household registration reform policy and concluded that it removed barriers to labor mobility between cities without negatively impacting local workers’ wages. In another study, urban identity was found to influence labor mobility (Chen et al., 2019b ). Regarding migration costs, Combes et al. ( 2015 ) identified a positive relationship between the proportion of urban migrants and the wages of local residents. Gee et al. ( 2017 ) concluded that social networks provided employment opportunities for newcomers. In terms of urban characteristics, Chen et al. ( 2022 ) found that air pollution reduced immigration and increased labor emigration. Han and Kung ( 2015 ) argued that investments in urban infrastructure and services influenced labor mobility decisions. Other researchers have focused on the impact of natural disasters on labor migration (Li, 2024 ; Luong et al., 2023 ; Naoi et al., 2020 ).

However, the existing literature has largely failed to fully consider the impact of emerging technologies, such as robot applications, on rural labor migration behavior. This research gap has prevented a comprehensive assessment of the impact of robot applications on the labor market.

The impact of robot applications on the labor market

Academic discussions regarding the impact of robot applications on labor force employment have presented varying perspectives. On the one hand, scholars have suggested that robots can reduce labor demand through substitution effects, particularly in routine job sectors (Goddard et al., 2021 ; Frey and Osborne, 2017 ). Acemoglu and Restrepo ( 2020 ), in a study examining robot penetration metrics at the commuting zone level in the U.S., found that robot applications lowered both regional employment and wage levels. Analyzing data from a Chinese household survey, Giuntella et al. ( 2022 ) concluded that robot applications decreased household labor participation rates, reduced hourly wages, and lengthened working hours. Brambilla et al. ( 2023 ) suggested that robot applications displaced young and semi-skilled workers, resulting in lower employment rates. On the other hand, others have posited that robot applications stimulate labor demand through expansion effects, primarily manifested in increased production scales and the creation of new jobs (Lin, 2009 ; Mokyr et al., 2015 ). Autor ( 2015 ) observed that automation in the industrial sector had both destructive and creative effects on employment, with the complementarity between automation and human labor leading to increased demand for workers. Hjort and Poulsen ( 2019 ), using labor data from South Africa, discovered a notable correlation between robot applications and increased labor demand by enterprises.

In addition, some scholars have argued that robot applications do not significantly alter regional employment rates. Graetz and Michaels ( 2018 ) concluded that robot applications enhance economic productivity, thereby raising labor wages without markedly affecting the overall employment rate. Dauth et al. ( 2018 ), from a labor transfer perspective, noted that while robot applications did not affect overall employment figures, they facilitated the transfer of labor from manufacturing to service sectors.

Research on the effects of robot applications across different skill levels indicates that robot adoption may lead to job losses and decreased wages for low-skilled workers while simultaneously increasing demand and boosting wages for high-skilled labor (Dustmann et al., 2017 ; Huber and Stephens, 2014 ). Blanas et al. ( 2019 ) using data from developed countries, found that robot adoption reduced the demand for low and medium-skilled labor, along with female workers, leading to a shift towards more skill-intensive employment structures. De Vries et al. ( 2020 ) concluded that the increased use of robots had a negative correlation with employment in non-routine jobs, coupled with a decline in routine employment, although these effects were not significant in emerging countries and transition economies.

In this paper, the impact of robot applications on rural labor markets in China is explored in order to provide a better understanding of how robots affect labor dynamics.

Theoretical analysis and research hypothesis

This study utilizes the task model developed by Acemoglu and Restrepo ( 2022 ), which divides production tasks into segments specifically designated for labor and robots. The model is adapted to accommodate a diverse labor force, integrating varying skill levels into the framework and explicitly accounting for the effects of robotic technological advancements on task allocation. In addition, this paper investigates the job creation effects of robot applications and provides a detailed analysis of their impact on labor demand. Following the labor mobility framework outlined by Chen et al. ( 2022 ), the influence of robot applications on labor migration is further examined, and theoretical hypotheses are formulated. The analysis is conducted within the framework of a perfectly competitive market, ensuring that market clearance conditions are met and that the behavior of representative enterprises is thoroughly examined.

The impact of robot applications on labor demand

Assuming that the representative firm’s production function for tasks takes the Cobb-Douglas form, the equation can be expressed as follows:

where \({Y}_{dt}\) is the output level of representative enterprise d at time t , achieved through a series of consecutive production tasks \([N-1,N]\) ; \({A}_{{dt}}^{s}\) is the productivity coefficient; \({K}_{{dt}}\left(s\right)\) is capital stock; \({x}_{{dt}}(s)\) is the input of production task s . Note that \(0 \,<\, \alpha \,<\, 1\) . For simplicity, each task is standardized to 1, \(s\in [\mathrm{0,1}]\) . Consequently, Eq. ( 1 ) can be expressed as follows:

where \(x(s{)}_{{it}}\) represents labor input required during the production process, with different sectors employing various skill types. Upon integrating robots into the model, they are capable of substituting for certain low-skilled labor tasks. \({{R}_{{dt}}^{K},W}_{dt}^{H},{W}_{{dt}}^{L}\) denote the prices of capital stock, high-skilled labor, and low-skilled labor, respectively. \({R}_{{dt}}^{M}\) reflects the cost of robot usage, covering both ownership and leasing expenses such as installation, depreciation, and maintenance. \({R}_{{dt}}^{K}\) represents the price of capital stock. The productivity of high-skilled labor, low-skilled labor, and robots are represented by \({r}_{{it}}^{H}\left(s\right),{r}_{{it}}^{L}\left(s\right),{r}_{{it}}^{M}(s)\) , respectively. Under the assumption of fixed wages and considering the business production process, the model adheres to the relationship \({W}_{{dt}}^{H}/{r}_{{dt}}^{H}\, >\, {W}_{{dt}}^{L}/{r}_{{dt}}^{L}\, >\, {R}_{{dt}}^{M}/{r}_{{dt}}^{M}\) . Following the principle of cost minimization, Eq. ( 2 ) can be formulated as follows:

where \({h}_{dt}\left(s\right),{l}_{dt}\left(s\right),{m}_{dt}\left(s\right),{k}_{{dt}}(s)\) denote the inputs of high-skilled labor, low-skilled labor, robots, and capital for task s , respectively. I * represents the technological frontier of automation, defining the scope of tasks that can be automated using technologies such as robots. Tasks exceeding I * cannot be automated. θ refers to the skill gap between high-skilled and low-skilled labor. Tasks with values greater than θ require high-skilled labor, as they are beyond the substitution capability of low-skilled labor. Let \({I}^{* }=I-(\theta -I){e}^{-{r}_{{dt}}^{M}(s)}\) , with I signifying the lower threshold for automation in task s. If \({I}^{* }=\theta\) , this means that robots can entirely replace low-skilled labor. Defining the demand for robots, low-skilled labor, and high-skilled labor for task s , and considering the properties of the Cobb–Douglas production function, it can be represented as follows:

Under the condition of market clearance, the equilibrium between the supply and demand for robots, low-skilled labor, high-skilled labor, and capital can be expressed as follows:

where \({M}_{{it}},{L}_{{it}},{H}_{{it}}\) represent the demand for robots, low-skilled labor, and high-skilled labor, respectively. Taking the logarithm of Eq. ( 2 ) on both sides and combining it with Eqs. ( 8 ), ( 9 ), ( 10 ), and ( 11 ), the expression can be written as follows:

From \(\partial {Y}_{{dt}}/\partial {I}^{* } >\, 0,\partial {I}^{* }/\partial {r}_{{dt}}^{M}(s)\, >\, 0\) , we can deduce that the more tasks robots perform, the higher the firm’s output becomes. This indicates that intensifying the substitution of low-skilled labor with robots can boost an economy’s productivity. In perfectly competitive markets where product prices match marginal costs, increased production efficiency leads to lower product prices. Consequently, businesses driven by profit maximization increasingly deploy robots, displacing more skilled labor. Generally, robot applications influence total employment through two main channels: the substitution effect, where robots replace low-skilled workers, thereby reducing their employment opportunities; and the expansion effect, where robots help expand productivity and production scale, thus elevating labor demand. Therefore, the overall impact of robot applications on total employment remains uncertain.

The impact of robot applications on labor transfer

The analysis indicates that robots stimulate the expansion of related industry sectors, thus broadening employment opportunities across the supply chain and resulting in the significant creation of high-quality, skill-intensive jobs. In this context, robots fulfill a dual function: they enable employment opportunities for high-skilled labor and act as substitutes for low-skilled labor. Considering the mobility of the workforce between cities, the total population of city j at time t is represented as follows:

Derived from Eq. ( 13 ), the net outflow of labor from city j at time t can be expressed as follows:

Under the condition of other factors remaining constant, taking the partial derivative with respect to the city’s robot density \({M}_{j,t}\) yields:

The equation suggests that the total population of city j in period t depends on the probability of labor migrating to work in city j . This paper characterizes the distribution of workers’ skills using the \(Fr\acute{e}{che}t\) equation (Ahlfeldt et al., 2015 ; Lagakos and Waugh, 2013 ) as follows:

where \({s}_{N}\) denotes the skill dispersion within region N , with higher θ values indicating greater disparities in labor skills across regions; ρ signifies the correlation in skill levels between different regions. A higher ρ implies that a worker possesses a high skill level in city j .

Assuming that a laborer’s income from work equals their consumption expenditure, the utility function for worker i choosing to move from city o to city j is expressed as follows:

where \({\alpha }_{{jt}}\) refers to the characteristics of city j , such as living conditions; \({s}_{{ijt}}\) is the skill level of worker i in city j ; \({q}_{o}\) denotes the initial skill level); \({\varepsilon }_{{jot}}\) represents unobserved factors. Given the presence of migration costs, based on the “Iceberg Cost” principle, this study assumes that labor migration incurs efficiency losses, denoted as \({\tau }_{{ijt}}\in (\mathrm{0,1})\) . The probability of worker i choosing city j is given by:

such that \(\partial \theta /\partial \rho\, >\, 0\) . As the skill gap among workers across regions widens, their inclination to migrate to these regions diminishes, especially for those with lower skill levels. This study focuses on rural migrants, who generally have education levels below the average. As robot applications increase the demand for higher skills within firms, low-skilled laborers find themselves increasingly marginalized. Based on these arguments, the paper proposes the following hypotheses:

H1: The application of robots increases the migration likelihood among the rural mobile population.

H2: The impact of robots on the migration of rural labor is particularly significant among workers with lower skill levels.

Research and design

Background review.

Experiences from developed nations illustrate that the demographic dividend is instrumental in propelling economic growth (Hainmueller and Hisco, 2010 ; Liu, 2010 ). During the era of rapid expansion of the labor force between 1980 and 2010, China experienced a substantial surge in its gross domestic product (GDP), averaging an annual growth rate exceeding 10 percent. Population mobility, a central element of the urbanization process, not only enhances the value of human resources but also facilitates the horizontal relocation of industries and the equalization of public services, thereby effectively reducing developmental disparities between regions. The scale of China’s mobile population has continued to rise rapidly, increasing from 221 million in 2000 to 376 million in 2020. However, the total number of migrant workers has been decreasing. In 2020, the total was 286.5 million, a decrease of 5.17 million compared to the previous year, including 169.6 million outbound migrant workers, down by 4.66 million.

As shown in Figs. 1 and 2 , the period from 2014 to 2018 witnessed the largest growth in robot installations in China, which has reshaped the labor market landscape. This means that understanding the trends in rural labor mobility is crucial for altering the urban-rural dual structure, guiding the orderly transfer of surplus rural labor, and promoting social harmony and stability (Domini et al., 2021 ; Chen et al., 2019 ).

Source: IFR. The figure demonstrates an overall upward trend in the installations of industrial robots.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. The figure shows a steady expansion in the scale of the rural migrant population.

Model setting

Building on the analysis of the aforementioned theoretical models, the regression model formulated to validate the research hypotheses of this study is as follows:

where i refers to individual laborers, c refers to the city of employment, h represents the industry sector, t is the year, \({Mobilit}{y}_{{icht}}\) refers to whether an individual laborer i working in industry h in city c during year t intends to relocate again, \({Robo}{t}_{{ct}}\) is the robot density, and \({X}_{{it}}\) accounts for various control variables selected from individual, familial, and economic dimensions. These variables include age, age squared, gender, ethnicity, education level, marital status, family size, presence of family members during relocation, the establishment of a local health record, rental expenditures, duration of migration, local minimum wage, level of economic development, level of secondary employment, and urban human capital. Additionally, the model incorporates fixed effects for cities ( \({\mu }_{c}\) ), industries-year ( \({\delta }_{{ht}}\) ) and years ( \({\lambda }_{t}\) ), with \({\varepsilon }_{{icht}}\) representing the random error term.

In this analysis, the coefficient \({\beta }_{1}\) is of particular interest, as it quantifies the estimated impact of robot applications on the migration tendencies of rural labor. The variables are summarized in Table 1 , and logarithmic transformations are applied to continuous variables.

Variable description

Optimizing labor resource allocation is essential for sustaining employment stability and fostering high-quality development. Accordingly, the variables defined in this study are as follows:

Dependent variable: In measuring labor mobility, previous studies have often relied on past transfer behaviors (Ma and Tang, 2020 ; Bertinelli et al., 2022 ) and regional migration rates (Leknes et al., 2022 ; Kirchberger, 2021 ) for analysis. However, when Giuntella et al. ( 2022 ) conducted a study based on CFPS data, they found that the applications of robots had an impact on family fertility, borrowing, and other behaviors. Thus, an analysis based solely on past behavior may introduce certain biases. In this study, the influence of robot applications on the rural labor market was evaluated from the perspective of the likelihood of labor relocating across different regions, utilizing a discrete variable, \({Mobilit}{y}_{icht}\) , constructed from responses to the question “Do you plan to reside locally for more than 5 years?”. Responses indicating “do not plan” were coded as 1, while ‘plan’ and ‘undecided’ (indicating a weaker intent to move) were coded as 0. For monthly income, the value comprised the income earned in the previous month (or during the last employment) excluding costs for food and accommodation.

Core explanatory variable: Customs import data and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data are typically used to establish indicators for urban robot applications. Since customs data no longer provided enterprise names and codes after 2016, IFR data was merged with microdata from the Second National Economic Census in constructing city-level robot density to assess the impact of robot applications on rural labor mobility from 2014 to 2018. Bartik instrumental variables (Goldsmith-Pinkham et al., 2020 ; Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2020 ; Wang et al., 2022 ; Hong et al., 2022 ) were employed to formulate the urban robot density indicator ( \(R{obo}{t}_{ct}\) ). Data on robot inventories across various industrial sectors were provided by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). The 2002 National Economic Industry Classification aligns with the International Standard Industry Classification (ISIC Rev.4), facilitating the acquisition of robot inventories for different industries in China using the corresponding industry codes and data from the IFR. The robot density for each city in each year was calculated by combining the employment figures and robot inventory density for each industry. The formula used for this calculation is as follows:

Where \({labo}{r}_{s,c,t}\) indicates the number of employees working in industry s within city c during year t , with the manufacturing sector further divided into multiple subsectors; \(R{D}_{{st}}\) refers to the robot density. The robot density for each city for each year is calculated using the provided formula.

Control Variables: Control variables were employed across three dimensions (i.e., individual, familial, and economic factors), which included parameters such as age and its square, gender, ethnicity, education level, marital status, family size, whether family members accompany during relocation, the establishment of local health records, rental expenditures, the duration of migration, the local minimum wage, level of economic development, level of secondary employment, and urban human capital.

Using the median urban robot density as benchmark, the regions were divided into areas depending on robot density. As shown in Table 2 , a higher robot density correlates with an increased likelihood of migration among the rural labor force, highlighting the considerable influence of robot applications on local rural labor markets. In areas with relatively high robot density, the average migration probability for the rural labor force (0.216) is higher than that in regions with lower robot density (0.192). Overall, the average migration probability for the rural labor force is 0.204, suggesting that about 20% of the workforce considers further migration. The average educational attainment among rural laborers in high robot-density areas (9.484) surpasses that in low robot-density areas (9.274), indicating higher skills and learning capabilities within regions with greater robot density. This may potentially increase the risk of unemployment for low-skilled workers, thereby influencing migration decisions. The average monthly housing expense for rural laborers in high robot-density areas (474.350) exceeds that in low robot-density regions (380.578). In terms of average minimum wage, low robot-density areas (1331.209) had a much lower mean than high robot-density areas (1614.794). This suggests that economically prosperous regions, given their superior infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities, are more conducive to the development and adoption of robotics technology. In particular, rural migrants generally have lower education levels (9.379), which makes them particularly vulnerable in the labor market, especially in the face of robot applications. Comprehensively analyzing the effects of robotics on the rural labor market, with specific emphasis on the rural migrant population, would have considerable practical importance and hold significant scholarly value.

Data sources

The microdata used in this study were obtained from the China Mobile Population Dynamic Surveillance Data (CMDS), collected by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China from 2014 to 2018. These data encompass all 31 provinces (autonomous regions, and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, utilizing a stratified, multi-stage, proportional-to-size sampling method. Sampling locations were chosen randomly in areas with dense migrant populations, targeting individuals at least 15 years old, who had resided in the inflow area for at least a month and did not possess local hukou (household registration) in the region (county or city). Due to its extensive sample coverage and comprehensive survey content, which included basic information, mobility scope, and the income and expenditure status of the migrant population and their family members, the CMDS has become a key database for researching issues related to China’s migrant population (Xu et al., 2023 ; Meng et al., 2023 ). The application of robots has restructured labor market demands, presenting significant challenges for rural migrants seeking employment opportunities.

The focus of this study is on individuals aged between 17 and 64 with an agricultural household registration status, whose reasons for migration are employment-related (e.g., seeking work, fulfilling occupational commitments) or engaging in business ventures. Samples from special regions (e.g., autonomous territories and regiments) and those with missing data or involving cross-border migrations were excluded. Monthly income values in the top 1% quantile were truncated. With total valid samples of 150,651, our approach ensures that the focus remains on job transitions influenced by labor market dynamics and not on other non-employment factors. City-level control variables were obtained from various publications, including the China Urban Statistical Yearbook, provincial and municipal Statistical Yearbooks, and Statistical Bulletins. Minimum wage data were aggregated from official announcements by provincial (municipal) Ministries of Human Resources and Social Security and local municipal government sources.

Two primary data sources were utilized in calculating city-level robot density: the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) and microdata from the Second National Economic Census. The IFR database provides data on industrial robot installation and stock from over 50 countries from 1993 to 2019, with the manufacturing sector further segmented into 13 specific industries. In this study, the analysis primarily focused on the secondary sector. The second National Economic Census, which provides data on the scale, structure, and performance of China’s secondary and tertiary industries, encompasses all legal entities, industrial activity units, and individual enterprises within these sectors, providing the foundational data for calculating city-level robot stock density.

In assessing the robustness of urban robot density, customs data from 2014 and 2015 were employed. The customs database provides detailed information on company import and export activities at the product level, and the application of HS product codes enables the identification of the annual quantity and value of imported robots, a methodology well-established in current research (Huang et al., 2022 ; Fan et al., 2021 ). The analysis also incorporated data from the 2018 input-output tables. For robustness tests on rural labor migration, our study employed data from three iterations of the China Family Panel Study (CFPS) conducted in 2014, 2016, and 2018. This biennial survey, administered by the China Institute for Social Science Survey at Peking University since 2010, samples urban and rural residents across China.

Empirical analysis

The impact of robot applications on rural labor transfer, the impact of robot applications on rural labor transfer intention.

A heteroscedasticity-robust linear probability model (LPM) was utilized to explore the overall impact of robot applications on rural labor migration. Table 3 summarizes the regression results for the various model specifications. Column (1) incorporates the core explanatory variable and includes fixed effects for city, year, and industry-year. Column (2) expands on Column (1) by adding basic characteristics of individuals and families. At the individual level, the variables included age, age squared, ethnicity, gender, and education level, while at the family level, the parameters included marital status, family size, and whether family members are relocating together. Column (3) provides economic attributes like the establishment of health records, monthly rent expenses, and minimum wage levels to the model. Column (4) includes factors related to family migration, such as migration duration, level of economic development, level of secondary employment, and urban human capital, while Column (5) refines the analysis in Column (4) by focusing solely on samples with active employment status. All models applied clustering of standard errors at the city level.

The regression results show a positive and statistically significant coefficient for robot density at the 5% level. In Column (1), the coefficient for the core explanatory variable, urban robot density, is 0.248, which suggests that on average, a 1% increase in urban robot density is associated with a 0.248% rise in the probability of rural labor migration. This positive and significant relationship persists even with the addition of more control variables. In Column (4), the coefficient for the core explanatory variable was 0.249, suggesting that every 1% increase in urban robot density increased the likelihood of rural labor migration by an average of 0.249%. These findings indicate that increased urban robot application density significantly influences rural labor mobility and that the effects of robot applications (encompassing production expansion and substitution effects) have a substantial impact on the labor market, increasing the likelihood of re-migration among rural workers. Analyzing the coefficients of the control variables, the effect of age on the transfer of rural labor was found to be non-linear, indicating significant heterogeneity in its impact. The probability of continued transfer is higher among male rural workers compared to their female counterparts. Likewise, low-skilled labor exhibited a higher probability of transfer compared to high-skilled labor, with the former primarily involved in routine work and displaying a stronger response to robot impact. Family size was found to negatively impact the likelihood of continued migration within the rural labor force. Larger families usually have more complex considerations to relocate, thereby reducing the propensity to move. Given that medical security supports the social system in ensuring the overall population health, health risks are particularly significant for the floating population. Those with social security benefits are in a better position to manage unforeseen illnesses or accidents, lowering the likelihood of re-migration. In addition, the minimum wage level and monthly rent expenses reflect the economic conditions and living costs in the workers’ current location. Considering the lower employment status of rural migrants, economic factors are critical determinants influencing labor transfers.

Study on the impact of robot applications on urban migration rate

Micro-level individual data from the 2010 population census and the 1% population sample survey in 2015 were employed in constructing the migrant labor migration rate at the prefecture-level city level. This emphasis on labor mobility within prefecture-level cities is due to two key considerations: first, many policies, including those related to land and household registration, are predominantly formulated at this administrative level; second, the interconnectedness and economic interdependence are notably higher within these cities compared to inter-city relations. Based on the regression analysis, a marked decrease was observed in the migration rate of migrant labor in regions where urban robots are widely used, as shown in Table 4 . This trend remains consistent even after controlling for population characteristics and employment distribution factors of the original region.

Robustness analysis

To ensure the robustness of the findings, several methods were employed to address two potential sources of endogeneity in the research questions. First, reverse causality may exist between robot applications and rural labor migration. A decrease in rural labor mobility may lead to increased labor costs for businesses, prompting a higher adoption rate of robots. Second, omitted explanatory variables (e.g., geographical factors), which can influence the application of robots and the migration of rural labor, may also be present and have to be taken into account.

For the instrumental variable, the density of urban robots from major robot manufacturing countries was used (Goldsmith-Pinkham et al., 2020 ; Borusyak et al., 2022 ), given two main considerations. First, the development trend of the robot industry in other developed countries closely mirrors that of China’s robot industry, with trends in principal robot manufacturing nations directly impacting robot usage in China. Also, data from these advanced manufacturing countries can serve as indicators of the level of scientific and technological progress. This suggests that constructing a robot density indicator based on Bartik-IV can mitigate the endogeneity problem to a certain extent.

To minimize potential measurement errors, instrumental variables using data on robots from multiple countries (i.e., Germany, South Korea, the United States, Japan, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) were also employed and the results of the regression analyses are presented in Column (1) of Panel A in Table 5 . Further regression analysis using data from Germany, South Korea, and the United States is shown in column (2) of Panel A. Analysis employing data from South Korea and the United States is detailed in column (3) of the same panel. An instrumental variable using the proportion of intermediary values from computer manufacturing and information technology services in total added value was also constructed, as calculated from the 2018 input-output table, with the regression results presented in column (4) of Panel A in Table 5 .

Drawing on the method developed by Ma and Zhu ( 2022 ), additional instrumental variables were used for testing using historical data on post and telecommunications from 1984 for each city. The value is calculated by multiplying the number of global mobile network connections from the previous year ( \(t-1\) ) by the number of landlines per 100 people in 1984. The regression results are shown in column (1) of Panel B, Table 5 . In addition, the approach by Fan et al. ( 2013 ) was adopted in constructing another instrumental variable, utilizing the historical status of a city as a trading port between 1840 and the end of the Qing dynasty combined with the number of global mobile network connections from the previous year ( \(t-1\) ). The historical role of a city as a trading port may have long-term effects on local technology adoption, but it is not directly related to current labor migration, thus satisfying the criteria for relevance and exogeneity of the instrumental variables. As shown in Column (2) of Panel B in Table 5 , the regression results using the 2SLS instrumental variable approach are generally robust, the coefficients of the core explanatory variables are significantly positive, and the chosen instrumental variables do not suffer from issues related to under-identification or weak instrumental variables.

In constructing the dependent variable, samples responding with ‘not well considered’ were given the value of 0 and were subsequently excluded from the analysis to mitigate measurement errors. As shown in the regression results shown in Column (1) of Panel C in Table 5 , the coefficient for the core explanatory variable was 0.263, indicating that a 1% rise in urban robot density increased the average likelihood of rural labor electing to transfer by 0.263%. Given the close interconnection among cities within the same province, the approach used by Nian ( 2023 ) was employed for clustering standard errors at a broader level. The regression outcomes, presented in column (2) of Panel C in Table 5 , with a modified clustering standard error for the coefficients, exhibit only minor deviations from the earlier findings, indicating consistent robustness in the study’s conclusions.

Considering the substantial sample size and the ability of the linear probability regression framework to effectively incorporate fixed effects and address the issue of omitted variables to a certain extent, the heteroscedasticity robust LPM model was utilized in the analysis. For the robustness check, both Probit and Logit models were employed to confirm the consistency of the conclusions. In the regression results presented in Columns (3) and (4) of Panel C in Table 5 , the Logit model had a coefficient of 0.239 for the core explanatory variable. This means that a 1% increase in urban robot density enhances the probability of rural labor choosing to transfer (compared to not transferring) by 0.239%.

To account for potential policy interference, the State Council officially issued the Opinions on Further Promoting the Reform of the Household Registration System on July 30, 2014. This reform aims to reduce the restrictions of the household registration system on labor mobility, encouraging more workers to migrate to different cities for employment opportunities. This policy holds a significant influence on population mobility and urban layout optimization. As shown by the regression results in Column (1) of Panel D in Table 5 , the conclusions of this study are consistent and robust.

An alternative estimation method was also utilized to address possible measurement errors in explanatory variables, using the calculation formula structured as follows:

The regression results are presented in Column (2) of Panel D in Table 5 . To evaluate urban robot applications, robot import data were analyzed from enterprises for the years 2014–2015. The customs database identifies three types of imported robot products: multi-functional industrial robots (HS8 code: 84795010), other industrial robots including end manipulators (HS8 code: 84795090), and automatic handling robots for ICT factories (HS8 code: 84864031). Given the annual operational stock of robots for each enterprise during the specified period, the values can then be aggregated at the city level to calculate the city’s robot density, providing an alternative core explanatory variable. The regression results are detailed in Columns (3) and (4) of Panel D in Table 5 . The coefficients for the core explanatory variables in the model were found to be positive and statistically significant, indicating that robot applications increase the likelihood of ongoing migration among the rural labor force.

As an alternative explanatory variable, the change in the type of work performed by the workforce was examined to increase the robustness of the results, the paper uses and improve the analysis of the employment transfer of the rural workforce between agriculture and non-agriculture. Three categories were used: pure labor, part-time, and pure farming. Those not engaged in any agricultural work were given a value of ‘1’, those involved in both agricultural and non-agricultural work were given a value of ‘2’, and those in purely agricultural work were given a value of ‘3’. As shown by the regression results in Table 6 , robot application promotes the transfer of rural labor to the agricultural sector and increases the probability of returning to the agricultural sector.

The effect of robot applications on rural labor transfer -- mechanism analysis

To investigate the mechanisms through which robot applications impact rural labor transfer, this study categorized transfer intentions into passive extrusion and active extrusion based on factors such as employment and insurance status. The influence mechanisms of robot applications on labor migration were analyzed by considering variables such as age, initial skill level, vocational skill level, mobility, and economic disparities in the areas of employment.

Mechanism analysis—transfer intention difference

Drawing on insights from Vadean and Piracha ( 2010 ) and Constant and Massey ( 2002 ), this paper defines labor migration due to factors such as inability to find satisfactory employment, lack of social security, and household registration issues as passive crowding out. Migration driven by the pursuit of better job opportunities is characterized as active crowding out. From the regression results, presented in Table 7 , the coefficient for the actively extruded sample is 0.228, which suggests that a 1% increase in urban robot density would, on average, increase the probability of rural labor choosing to migrate by 0.228%. For passively extruded samples, the coefficient is 0.267, indicating that a 1% rise in urban robot density leads to an average increase of 0.267% in the probability of selective rural labor transfer. This suggests a more significant passive crowding out effect due to robot applications.

The study then explored the relationship between urban robot applications density and the migration of rural labor to cities. The coefficient for the core explanatory variable is −0.109, indicating that each 1% increase in urban robot density decreases the probability of rural labor moving to cities by 0.109%. These findings suggest that robot applications density affects labor migration patterns.

Mechanics analysis—skill differences

The theoretical analysis suggests that robot applications have varied effects on laborers with different skill levels. Without skill upgrading through training and education, workers may encounter increased wage disparities. This could lead to the substitution effect of robots outweighing the expansion effect, potentially displacing low-skilled labor. In this study, these differential impacts were evaluated using three perspectives: age, educational attainment, and occupation.

The regression results for the age-based analysis are presented in Panel A of Table 8 . For workers impacted by active extrusion, robot applications significantly affect younger and middle-aged workers. Advancements in robot technology likely generate high-tech jobs, and younger and middle-aged workers, possessing higher technical literacy and adaptability, can more easily transition into these new sectors. Thus, the expansion effect and technological progress associated with robot applications can improve employment prospects for this demographic. In comparison, workers experiencing passive extrusion, particularly those aged 44 and above, show a higher inclination to transfer due to robot applications. The human capital of this group, rooted in work experience and specialized skills, often does not align with changing job demands, making them less competitive in the labor market. Therefore, the effects of robot applications are more substantial for the middle-aged and older workforce.

The influence of skill level differences was then evaluated on the impact of robot applications on rural labor migration, with the findings presented in Panel B of Table 8 . The positive coefficient of the core explanatory variable indicates that robot applications increase the likelihood of rural labor migration. When considering skill level differences, low-skilled labor exhibits a stronger response to robot impacts compared to high-skilled labor. For workers affected by active extrusion, robot technology has a greater impact on high-skilled workers, creating high-paying jobs that demand advanced skills. In comparison, for passively extruded workers, robot technology more significantly impacts low-skilled workers who often cannot meet regional skill requirements, leading them to relocate in search of similar job opportunities. This supports the theoretical hypothesis proposed in this paper.

Lastly, the influence of robot applications on labor migration across different skill levels was explored from an occupational perspective. In the secondary industry, workers are categorized into high-tech and low-tech occupations based on the high-tech industry classification within manufacturing. With increasing urban robot density, dual effects are observed. Many production tasks require high-tech labor for design, operation, and maintenance, while new high-tech job opportunities in areas like robot technology research and development emerge. The regression results in Panel C of Table 8 suggest that the impact of robot applications is more pronounced in low-skilled manufacturing jobs. These jobs are more susceptible to automation, and workers often face skill mismatches, prompting them to relocate to other areas.

Mechanism analysis—liquidity difference

This study explores how robot applications affect rural labor migration, focusing on mobility differences, including the presence of family members during relocation and the scope of mobility. The findings are presented in Table 9 . When analyzing the impact of family presence, workers without accompanying family members exhibited a higher inclination to relocate. A 1% increase in urban robot density correlated with a 0.316% increase in the likelihood of these workers considering relocation. Workers relocating with their families, particularly those with children, encounter significant challenges such as securing admissions to educational institutions. As a result, they often seek local employment opportunities, which may compromise their welfare.

In terms of scope of mobility, workers moving across provinces were categorized as highly mobile, while those moving across cities within the same province or counties within the same city were classified as less mobile. Those with high mobility, typically engaged in repetitive blue-collar informal jobs, are more susceptible to replacement by robots as labor costs rise, causing this group to have a higher propensity for migration. The results suggest that a 1% increase in urban robot density is associated with a 0.250% increase in the likelihood of rural labor opting to relocate.

Mechanism analysis -- economic development difference

The differential impact of robot applications on the migration of rural labor was then evaluated by considering the economic development level of employment locations. Based on the “2022 Business Charm Ranking List of Cities,” the first-tier, new first-tier, and second-tier cities were classified as developed cities, third-tier cities were categorized as generally developed cities, and all other cities were classified as less developed cities. The regression results presented in Table 10 indicate that the uneven economic development across China’s regions and the varying density of robot applications have a significant influence on the mobility of rural labor. The impact of robotics is particularly pronounced in developed and more developed areas where rapid technological updates demand a workforce with higher skills to adapt to economic structural changes. The rural migrant population, predominantly educated up to junior and senior high school levels, encounters substantial challenges in meeting the requirements of modernized Industrial systems, often resulting in their displacement. In economically advanced regions, a 1% increase in urban robot density corresponds to a 0.317% increase in the probability of rural labor choosing to relocate.

Mechanism analysis—the effect of income distribution

The research findings indicate that increased urban robot density significantly enhances labor market mobility and raises the likelihood of rural labor migration. The impact of urban robot applications on the wages and working hours of rural labor was then evaluated, and the regression results are summarized in Table 11 .

In Column (1), the results suggest that a 1% rise in urban robot density is associated with an average wage increase of 0.086% for rural labor. This implies that, at the current stage, the positive effects of production expansion from robot applications outweigh any substitution effects. The adoption of robots in China is primarily concentrated on enhancing efficiency and productivity. In Column (2), the findings suggest that a 1% increase in urban robot density corresponds to a 0.093% increase in the average weekly working hours, indicating that companies have enhanced production efficiency by incorporating robot technology. In order to remain competitive and meet the demands of emerging sectors, workers are often required to extend their working hours.

The impact of robot applications on rural labor transfer—further analysis

The analysis reveals that the applications of robots notably increased the probability of rural labor relocation. This study then investigated how different demographic groups are affected by robot applications, with a specific focus on the workers’ gender, marital status, and childbearing status. Given the emphasis enterprises place on efficiency and productivity when adopting robots, the impact of robot applications on the overall technical efficiency was also evaluated from an input-output perspective, in order to provide a more nuanced understanding of the broader economic effects of robot integration in the labor market.

The impact of robot applications on sensitive groups

As shown by the results in Table 12 , the increase in the likelihood of relocation caused by robot application was more pronounced among male workers compared to their female counterparts. This discrepancy is likely linked to the prevailing sense of responsibility among women to prioritize family care especially in rural areas, constraining their mobility.

The marital status and number of children of the female respondents were further analyzed, and the results are presented in Columns (3) - (6). The analysis suggests that compared to those who are unmarried, married women have fewer opportunities for skills enhancement and vocational training, limiting their abilities to adapt to technological changes. And in an environment where robotic technologies are becoming more widespread, married women encounter more severe employment challenges and risks.

The effect of robot applications on factor allocation

The findings indicate that at the individual level, robot applications affect labor transfer through both expansion and substitution effects. Increased urban robot density raises the likelihood of rural labor migration. To evaluate whether robot applications can optimize the allocation efficiency of production factors, the DEA-Malmquist index analysis was employed, focusing on technical efficiency from a macro perspective. Urban water and electricity consumption, capital stock (using the perpetual inventory method), and the number of employees at period-end were used as inputs, while real GDP and annual count of inventions were the outputs. The technical efficiency for each city is assumed to start at 1 in 2011, with subsequent years multiplying this figure. However, due to comparability issues, the sample range was restricted to 2014–2018.

As presented in Table 13 , the robot impact coefficient is positive and significant at the 5% level, indicating that robot applications enhance technical efficiency. This suggests urban robot density increases production scale and efficiency. Enterprises integrating robots can achieve higher production standards, producing higher-tech, quality-stable products, and channeling capital toward more efficient industries. Therefore, the current utilization of robots has become instrumental in improving the efficiency of factor allocation in the production process.

Conclusions and policy implications

Conclusions.

Employment is vital for safeguarding and enhancing the welfare of populations. In this study, micro-data from CMDS, IFR, and the Second National Economic Census were employed to examine the effects of robot applications on rural labor migration, as well as the underlying mechanisms and impacts on income distribution and production efficiency. The research reveals that, from a theoretical perspective, robot applications impact labor demand through expansion and substitution effects. Enterprises utilizing robots expand the scale of output and increase the demand for labor by enhancing the automation technology frontier of production tasks and improving overall production efficiency, while simultaneously diminishing the need for traditional labor. Robot applications promote labor mobility between regions when considering relocation costs and increase the probability of rural labor re-migration. Specifically, a 10% increase in robot density was found to correspond to a 2.49% increase in the likelihood of rural labor migration. Urban robot applications reduce the migration rate of urban labor and increase the probability of rural labor returning to the agricultural sector. One notable finding is the pronounced passive crowding-out effect caused by robots, which particularly impacts low-skilled labor and is more pronounced in low-skilled occupations. In terms of mobility, robot applications significantly influence highly mobile groups and may adversely affect the welfare of those migrating with their families. The results also indicate that economically developed regions experience a greater impact from the applications of robots and that their utilization and adoption increase the overall wage levels and extend the workers’ weekly working hours.

Policy implications

Firstly, the significant impact of robot applications on rural labor transfer necessitates a reform of the settlement system. At the core of this reform is the separation of household registration from social welfare benefits, which would promote unrestricted labor mobility and help improve the labor market This would facilitate orderly rural labor migration and dismantle institutional obstacles impeding labor mobility. The reforms should prioritize the cross-regional distribution of public services such as housing, healthcare, and education to promote the equitable sharing of these services across regions, bridge the urban-rural divide, and foster social inclusiveness. Given the potential reduction in welfare for family-accompanied migrant workers resulting from robot applications, targeted government policies are needed, such as relaxing school admission criteria for the children of migrant workers and modifying the healthcare system to more effectively cater to the needs of the elderly in rural migrant communities. Skills training should also be enhanced for these individuals to improve their ability to adapt to the changing labor market dynamics.

Secondly, the pronounced impact of robot applications on low-skilled labor highlights the need for optimizing income distribution among migrant workers. Given the mismatch between job demand and labor supply, the government should actively enhance worker employability and competitiveness by enhancing vocational skills training and consistently investing in skill development, especially for key demographics, to bridge the existing skills gap. The government should also provide comprehensive, ‘one-stop’ services for enterprises seeking skilled labor and for assisting workers in adapting to technological changes and elevating their employment capacity and job quality. To address the displacement effect in low-skilled jobs, the government needs to offer more support and guidance, including unemployment insurance and job transition assistance, to ensure a stable employment landscape.

Thirdly, to address the challenges posed by robot applications to income distribution among migrant workers, the government must actively disseminate employment information, coordinate targeted labor collaborations, and support seamless transitions of workers between industries. This would help mitigate the adverse impacts of robot applications on income distribution. Considering the potential of robots to improve societal production efficiency, China is well-positioned to capitalize on the ‘golden age’ of digital technology. The government should encourage enterprises to adopt robots, artificial intelligence, and other cutting-edge technologies, positioning these technologies at the forefront of the industry’s competition. Such strategic leadership is key to promoting intelligent upgrading within industries and fostering collaborative synergies among enterprises. The government should also champion mechanisms like mergers, reorganizations, or cluster development to horizontally expand the industrial chain, thereby reshaping the distribution pattern and maximizing the complementary effects and technological progress brought about by robot applications.

Data availability

The data used in this article can be found in the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NHCPRC) database, but a data use agreement with the data provider is required. The agreement for the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) specifies that our research adheres to stringent confidentiality requirements. We are committed to protecting the privacy of the respondents by securely storing the data, and we shall not disclose, distribute, or transfer any portion of the data—whether in its original or converted form—to any third party without explicit authorization. For details on the data use agreement, please visit the following link: https://chinaldrk.org.cn/wjw/#/detail/news?id=01f6010f-6010-461b-a672-5b07c8e4da45 . Due to the confidentiality obligations outlined in the agreement, the datasets used in this research are not publicly accessible. Researchers interested in accessing the data can visit the NHCPRC database website ( https://chinaldrk.org.cn/wjw/#/home ) and may submit a formal request to obtain the necessary permissions to use the data. In the robustness tests of this article, the CFPS data were used, which are governed by a specific data use agreement. The application for usage and the terms of the data use agreement can be found on the following website for those interested in accessing these datasets: http://www.isss.pku.edu.cn/cfps/ . Code available on request from the authors.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by Major Project of National Social Science Fund (Grant No.22ZDA108), and Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Key Project for “Double First-Class” Initiative: “Analysis and Statistical Measurement of Mechanisms for Digital Technology-Driven Industrial Upgrading in China’s Manufacturing Sector” (2023).

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These authors contributed equally: Kaizhi Yu, Jiahan Feng.

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Yu, K., Shi, Y. & Feng, J. The influence of robot applications on rural labor transfer. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 11 , 796 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03333-6

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