essay about rice farmers in the philippines

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The cultural significance of rice in the philippines: my journey to understanding rice.

Helena Wehmeyer (ELP 2021) | Affiliate PhD Research Scholar and Research Assistant , International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Switzerland

My journey to understanding rice started in 2017 when I moved to the Philippines and started my PhD in Geography at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Originally from Switzerland with Italian roots, rice was not a very regular staple for me and rather an occasional food, generally as a risotto. This changed as soon as I arrived in Los Baños. My colleagues taught me that rice would not only consume most of my studies, but also become one of my staples in cooking, baking, and, of course, eating out. They gave me the opportunity to delve into the cultural importance and culinary diversity of rice during my time in the Philippines.

Filipino cuisine is perfectly aligned to serve rice at every meal. Rice is eaten at breakfast, lunch, and dinner. My personal favorite is a steamy arroz caldo, also known as congee, for breakfast. In addition, desserts and snacks also often include rice. Hence, its prevalence demonstrates its cultural significance. In this country, where many struggle with food insecurity and malnutrition is widespread, it generally remains the central portion of the dish and calorie provider. Nevertheless, a large dependence on rice can lead to multiple challenges. Health issues related to an unbalanced diet and low nutrients are associated with high rice consumption, especially white rice. Food security policies still strongly focus on rice. They aim to achieve rice self-sufficiency, but the Philippines is still a net rice importer due to stagnating yields (Global Rice Science Partnership (GRiSP) 2013). In addition, the effects of climate change are becoming more challenging and directly influence rice production. Farmers are some of the most directly affected in the rice value chain.

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Filipino rice farmers are trying to cope with increased environmental, social, and economic pressure. Although more than two-thirds of the rice cultivation area in the Philippines is irrigated and many farmers use modern varieties, such as hybrid rice varieties or high-yielding varieties, yields are significantly lower compared to neighboring countries (GRiSP, 2013). At IRRI and in collaboration with the Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice), efforts are made to improve rice farmers’ situation. The introduction of new varieties to reduce yield gaps and increase farmers’ profitability is a key focus. In addition, promoting the use of good-quality seeds and improving mechanization is central. One project at IRRI, supported by the Department of Agriculture of the Philippines, also centers on less favorable rice cultivation areas (IRRI 2015). The heirloom rice project intends to enrich the legacy of traditional rice through empowered communities in unfavorable rice-based ecosystems. The main objective not only concentrates on enhancing productivity, but also promotes traditional rice cultivation practices and rice’s cultural importance throughout the country.

During my time at IRRI, I have been able to find out about the diversity of rice-related aspects that influence millions and feed billions. The most important lesson that I have learned is that rice is the foundation for a cultural and culinary understanding that goes beyond being a simple side dish. It is the livelihood basis for millions of smallholders in the Philippines and the world. It is a highly variable and adaptable crop that can grow in various climates and be cultivated under different practices. Furthermore, it is a food that connects people and allows them to share their favorite way of preparing or eating rice. The Filipino rice specialty that I will miss the most is bibingka, a sumptuously sweet and soft rice cake that contains a hint of coconut milk.

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Global Rice Science Partnership (GRiSP) (2013): Rice Almanac. 4th Edition. International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños. URL: http://books.irri.org/9789712203008_content.pdf (accessed 20.09.2021)

International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) (2015): The DA-IRRI Heirloom Rice Project. http://books.irri.org/Heirloom_brochure.pdf (accessed 20.09.2021)

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Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, Republic of Korea, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea

Roles Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation Department of Tropical Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States of America

• Malte F. Stuecker, 
• Michelle Tigchelaar, 
• Michael B. Kantar

• Published: August 9, 2018
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426
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Changes in crop yield and production over time are driven by a combination of genetics, agronomics, and climate. Disentangling the role of these various influences helps us understand the capacity of agriculture to adapt to change. Here we explore the impact of climate variability on rice yield and production in the Philippines from 1987–2016 in both irrigated and rainfed production systems at various scales. Over this period, rice production is affected by variations in soil moisture, which are largely driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We found that the climate impacts on rice production are strongly seasonally modulated and differ considerably by region. As expected, rainfed upland rice production systems are more sensitive to soil moisture variability than irrigated paddy rice. About 10% of the variance in rice production anomalies on the national level co-varies with soil moisture changes, which in turn are strongly negatively correlated with an index capturing ENSO variability. Our results show that while temperature variability is of limited importance in the Philippines today, future climate projections suggest that by the end of the century, temperatures might regularly exceed known limits to rice production if warming continues unabated. Therefore, skillful seasonal prediction will likely become increasingly crucial to provide the necessary information to guide agriculture management to mitigate the compounding impacts of soil moisture variability and temperature stress. Detailed case studies like this complement global yield studies and provide important local perspectives that can help in food policy decisions.

Citation: Stuecker MF, Tigchelaar M, Kantar MB (2018) Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines. PLoS ONE 13(8): e0201426. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426

Editor: Vanesa Magar, Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada Division de Fisica Aplicada, MEXICO

Received: February 18, 2018; Accepted: July 16, 2018; Published: August 9, 2018

Copyright: © 2018 Stuecker et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: Data was sourced from the following third party providers: Rice production data from 1987-2016 were obtained from the Philippine government statistic authority ( http://countrystat.psa.gov.ph/ ). ENSO variability was characterized using the Niño3.4 (N3.4) index, which is calculated as the area averaged sea surface temperature anomalies from HadISST1 ( https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html ) in the region 170°W-120°W and 5°S-5°N. Soil moisture data were obtained from CPC (version 2) at 0.5º horizontal resolution (35) ( https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cpcsoil.html ). Surface air temperature (2m) was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis on a 0.125º horizontal grid ( https://www.ecmwf.int/ ). Future climate projection data were obtained from the CMIP5 database for the business-as-usual scenario RCP 8.5 ( https://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/data_portal.html ).

Funding: MFS was supported by the Institute for Basic Science (project code IBS- R028-D1) and the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR's Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Sciences (CPAESS) and MT was funded by a grant from the Tamaki Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

Rice–which provides nearly half the calories for half the world’s population [ 1 ; 2 ]–is a key crop for the Philippines: it is a staple food (with >110 kg/person/year consumption, [ 3 ], http://irri.org/rice-today/nourishing-a-nation ), the sixth highest per capita consumption in the world), as well as a major source of income (rice production valued at ~6 billion U.S. dollars in 2015; [ 4 ]). The Philippines produces approximately 3% of the world’s rice in both “lowland” flooded transplanted paddies and “upland” rainfed direct seeded areas [ 5 ]. As such, understanding what drives changes in rice production in the Philippines is essential for meeting current and future food security [ 6 ; 7 ]. Variations in crop yields can be explained by either endogenous drivers, such as genetics (including breeding methods–pure line, synthetic, hybrid) and agronomy (including technology–use of fertilizer, irrigation, machinery) [ 6 ; 8 ; 9 ], and exogenous forcing such as climate variability, which has been reported to decrease the influence of genetics [ 10 ]. The role of climate is becoming increasingly important due to anthropogenic climate change, which could drastically change local environments, damage yields [ 11 ; 12 ], and influence the yield stability of staple crops [ 13 ; 14 ]. Here we assess how current and future climate variability influences the various modes of rice production in the Philippines.

Continuing to feed a growing world population expected to reach ~9 billion by 2050 [ 15 ] while faced with a changing climate is a tremendous challenge. To date, global food production has steadily increased through innovations in agricultural technology (improved practices and genetics). The Philippines has mirrored global trends, with population increasing from ~26 million in 1960 to ~101 million in 2015, and rice production increasing from ~3.9 million tonnes in 1961 to ~19.0 million tonnes in 2014. This large improvement has been due to increased yields (production per unit area) and increased acreage being placed into production [ 16 ]. However, it is unclear whether it will be possible to sustain increasing production into the future [ 17 ], and if the changing land use patterns for agriculture are sustainable [ 18 ].

The Philippines is a large and spatially heterogeneous country, consisting of 7107 islands divided into 18 political regions and 81 provinces. There are four major climate regimes: 1) distinct wet monsoon and dry season, 2) no distinct dry season but a strong wet monsoon season, 3) intermediate between type 1 and 2, where there is a short wet monsoon and short dry season, and 4) an even distribution of rainfall throughout the year [ 19 ]. Planting dates vary between regions based largely on differences in climate ( S1 Table ). While rice in the Philippines is grown throughout the year ( S1 Table ), the largest production share is grown during the wet season. Due to this diversity of planting and harvesting, the government of the Philippines takes annual, semester, and quarterly statistics on rice production and harvested areas. Farms in the Philippines are generally small (less than two hectares on average; [ 20 ]), which may limit the implementation of advanced farming technologies. Currently, irrigated paddy rice accounts for 60% of total production [ 21 ], with the remainder grown as upland directly seeded rice.

In the Philippines, the dominant climate influence on inter-annual timescales is from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO has pronounced effects on global rainfall and temperature variability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region [ 22 ; 23 ; 24 ]. It has been shown that this inter-annual climate variability can drastically impact crop yields and production globally [ 14 ; 25 ; 26 ]. In the tropical western Pacific region, El Niño events (the warm phase of ENSO) generally have a negative effect on farming. Specifically, El Niño induced droughts in the western Pacific have detrimentally affected Indonesian rice production [ 27 ], with worsening effects projected in response to greenhouse gas forcing [ 28 ]. Previous work on ENSO in the Philippines has shown that dry-season rice production is negatively impacted by El Niño on Luzon Island [ 25 ]. Additionally, tropical cyclones are a source of weather variability that is strongly seasonally modulated and exhibits localized impacts, suggesting that climate-yield and climate-production relationships need to be evaluated regionally and on sub-annual timescales.

An important limiting factor to increased food production in response to population growth and dietary shifts in the next century is the ability of crops to respond to climate variability, for instance soil moisture, surface temperatures, and the frequency of severe storms [ 29 ; 30 ]. Studies of climate impacts on crops typically either use process-based crop models, or evaluate the statistical relationship between crop production and climate variability in the past. Here we use this latter method to evaluate the impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines in different spatial and temporal contexts, and compare the range of past climate variability to projected future climate change to assess whether these relationships can be expected to hold in the future. We find that using a finer temporal and spatial resolution provides a more detailed understanding of climatic drivers of rice production, especially for upland (rainfed) rice, which is significantly impacted by ENSO through modifications in soil moisture. By the end of the century, temperatures will likely exceed present-day ranges, and will thus become an additional limiting factor to rice yield and production.

Materials and methods

Data acquisition.

Rice production data from 1987–2016 were obtained from the Philippine government statistic authority ( http://countrystat.psa.gov.ph/ ) for each political region and nationwide. Area harvested (hectares) and production (metric tonnes) data were collected from each political region and for the whole country for each quarter and year, for both irrigated and rainfed rice production. Missing data (where survey data was not complete) were linearly interpolated for each region (harvested area and production for rainfed systems) on the quarterly data (less than 1% of the data were missing). No values were missing for irrigated systems. Yield (tonnes per hectare) was calculated by dividing production by area for each quarter from 1987–2016.

To explore the ecological tolerance of rice we obtained the locality information of accessions stored in gene banks worldwide from https://www.genesys-pgr.org for tropical localities (from 23.5°S-23.5°N). From geo-referenced coordinates, we obtained surface temperature data for tropical rice from the WorldClim database at 30 arc seconds resolution [ 31 ], which were used to explore the climatic space inhabited by tropical rice.

Yield normalization

We created continuous time series of production and yield (rainfed and irrigated) for each aggregated political region. To remove the effect of yield increases due to breeding methods, we removed a ~7 year (27 quarters) running mean from each continuous time series and afterwards removed the residual total mean to construct an anomalous time series with zero mean. The results were qualitatively stable to the choice of the running mean window size (a 5 year window was also tested, data not shown). These normalization timescales are commonly used in the literature [ 11 ; 32 ] and correspond to a normal life cycle of a rice genotype used in farming [ 33 ].

Climate data

To calculate climate anomalies, we removed both the annual cycle (1987–2016 climatology) and the linear trend from each of the climate variables used. ENSO variability was characterized using the Niño3.4 (N3.4) index, which is calculated as the area averaged sea surface temperature anomalies from HadISST1 [ 34 ] in the region 170°W-120°W and 5°S-5°N. Soil moisture data were obtained from CPC (version 2) at 0.5° horizontal resolution [ 35 ]. Surface air temperature (2m) was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis [ 36 ] on a 0.125° horizontal grid. For the global warming projections (see below), the present-day reference temperatures were obtained from the CRU TS version 3.23 dataset, which presents monthly data from the period 1901–2014 on a 0.5° horizontal grid [ 37 ]. To evaluate crop-climate relationships at the different spatial scales, climate data were either spatially averaged for the entire Philippines (here defined by the geographical region 117°E-128°E, 4°N-22°N) or the respective regions (see S1 Table ).

Climate projections

Future climate projection data were obtained from the CMIP5 database [ 38 ] for the business-as-usual scenario RCP 8.5. Monthly output was obtained from eighteen climate models and interpolated using bilinear interpolation to a 0.5° resolution common grid. For the 2°C and 4°C warming targets, we first constructed the canonical global warming temperature pattern [ 39 ] for each of the eighteen models by taking the difference in monthly climatology between the 2080–2099 and 1980–1999 time periods, normalized by the global, annual mean temperature change. The future climate projections are then calculated by adding the change in each (2°C or 4°C warmer) model climatology to the observed (1911–2010) climate history, thus preserving the present-day interannual temperature variability [ 40 ].

Correlation analysis

We utilize standard correlation analysis to investigate the relationships between the respective climate variables and rice production and yield. For these relationships, we consider seasonal anomalies to be independent from anomalies in the same season of the previous and following years, which leads to an effective sample size of 30 (number of years). For all spatial maps that show temporal correlation coefficients in shading for the different geographical regions, an absolute value of the correlation coefficient of ~0.31 is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level using a two-tailed t-test (df = 28). Thus, we are not showing any correlations below an absolute value of 0.3 (white shading) in these maps.

National-level data

Irrigated rice production in the Philippines has almost tripled over the past thirty years, while rainfed rice production has seen a much smaller growth ( Fig 1A ). Over this period, yields for both production systems have increased steadily ( S1A Fig ). Besides this long-term trend, annual rice yields at the national level have been fairly stable over this period, with irrigated paddy rice production having only six yield anomalies exceeding one standard deviation (absolute anomaly of 0.09 [t ha -1 ], which corresponds to ~2.5% of the annual long-term mean in irrigated), while rainfed upland rice crops exhibited eight yield anomalies exceeding one standard deviation (absolute value of 0.07 [t ha -1 ], which corresponds to ~2.9% of the annual long-term mean in rainfed; S1B Fig ). Relative anomalies in total rice production ( Fig 1B ) are larger than those in yield, implying that the effects of climate variability are compounded through both yield and harvested area changes. As a result of the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in the Philippines, production losses are often manageable and built into farm management [ 41 ]. Notable exceptions are 1998 –with two typhoons–and 2010 –with four typhoons, an earthquake and a flood–which both saw large negative production anomalies [ 42 ].

• PPT PowerPoint slide
• PNG larger image
• TIFF original image

A) Annual rice production in the Philippines; B) Annual rice production anomalies (with regard to a 7 yr moving average); C) Quarterly rice production; D) Normalized quarterly rice production anomalies (the annual cycle is removed and the anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average); E) Normalized quarterly rice yield anomalies. Additionally, d) and e) show the quarterly normalized soil moisture anomalies averaged from 117°E-128°E and 4°N-22°N (black line) and the normalized Niño3.4 index (yellow line). In all panels, R indicates instantaneous correlation except for the correlation coefficients in D) and E) between rice production/yield and soil moisture, which are given for a 3 months lead time of soil moisture, between Niño3.4 and soil moisture for a 4 months Niño3.4 lead time, and between Niño3.4 and rice production/yield for a 7 months Niño3.4 lead time.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g001

Aggregating the yield and production data on an annual time scale potentially masks seasonal modulations of both the large-scale climate variability [ 24 ] and crop-climate relationships [ 25 ]. As a result, quarterly production and yield anomalies [ Fig 1D and 1E ] show more variability than the annual data. Rainfed and irrigated rice production anomalies are substantially less correlated with production in the quarterly data (R = 0.65, significant at the 99% confidence level with df = 28) than in the annual time series (R = 0.86, significant at the 99% confidence level with df = 28). About 10% of variance in anomalous rice production on the national level is related to soil moisture variability, which is strongly negatively correlated with the Niño3.4 index ( Fig 1D ). This reduction of rice production during El Niño events is qualitatively similar to the results of global analyses [ 26 ]. While the correlation coefficients between soil moisture anomalies and rice production anomalies are approximately the same for irrigated (R = 0.33, significant at the 90% confidence level with df = 28) and rainfed (R = 0.34, significant at the 90% confidence level with df = 28) rice production, when looking at yield anomalies the correlation is higher for rainfed than for irrigated systems ( Fig 1E ). This shows that, as expected, irrigation can counter much of the plant physiological response to soil moisture changes (as measured by rice yield), but decisions on planting area (as included in rice production) remain sensitive to water availability [ 25 ].

ENSO impacts on soil moisture

On a regional scale as well as on the national level, the correlation between the Niño3.4 index and soil moisture anomalies in the Philippines is negative ( Fig 2 ), i.e., El Niño events lead to dry conditions in all parts of the country. Interestingly, the correlation between ENSO and soil moisture decreases in the third and fourth quarters ( Fig 2 ). One factor might be that in the summer season rainfall variability is dominated by tropical cyclone activity [ 43 ]. While tropical cyclone activity can be modulated by large-scale climate variability such as ENSO, it can be considered a mostly stochastic process on climate timescales. This wet season (Quarters 3 and 4) is also the season when most rice is planted ( Fig 1C ), indicating that wet-season rice production may be largely decoupled from ENSO variability [ 25 ].

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g002

Regional crop-climate relationships

Rice in the Philippines is in the field for 90–110 days, so that planting decisions are made about three months before harvest [ 25 ]. Looking at the lagged correlation between rice production and soil moisture (soil moisture leading by one quarter, Fig 3 ), in most seasons, soil moisture anomalies in the previous quarter are significantly correlated with production variability, with higher soil moisture usually associated with increased rice production. Locally, seasonal correlations can be much higher than the national-level data ( Fig 1D ). A notable exception to this is Quarter 4, when correlations between these two variables are small, or even negative ( Fig 3 ). Production in this quarter is the highest of the year ( Fig 1C ) and represents the wet-season crop. Mean soil moisture conditions during the preceding quarters are high, so that variability in soil moisture does not affect rice planting or yield that much, while the typhoons that often impact the summer season (Q2-Q3) can lead to detrimental flooding in these quarters [ 43 ]. This is in accordance with an analysis of Luzon Island in the Northern Philippines (eight of eighteen regions; [ 25 ]), an area where both mean production ( S2 Fig ) and mean yields ( S3 Fig ) are high.

The annual cycle is removed and production anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average. The soil moisture data are area averaged for each political region corresponding to the rice production data.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g003

Total rice production in any given region is a function of the crop area harvested, the crop yield per unit area, and the number of crops harvested per year. Climate variability influences all of these variables. In Quarter 3, when correlations between soil moisture and total rice production are strongly positive in most regions ( Fig 3 ), there were few locations with significant correlations between previous-quarter soil moisture and rice yield ( Fig 4 ). This means that in this season, soil moisture anomalies might mostly drive planting decisions (i.e., which areas are brought into production), without strongly affecting plant development. During the dry season (Quarters 1 and 2) on the other hand, there are also significant regional correlations between soil moisture and rice yields, implying that climate variability in this season affects both plants and planting decisions. Mean climatological soil moisture conditions thus strongly affect the rice production response to climatic forcing. In contrast to soil moisture, in most regions temperature variability has a much lower correlation with rice yields. In some regions however, ENSO-induced temperature and precipitation changes have an effect in the same direction: El Niño events usually result in dry and hot conditions in the Philippines, which both are associated with a decrease in yield ( S4 Fig ). As we have seen, ENSO is driving a significant part of soil moisture variability in the Philippines which is correlated with rice production variability. Therefore, the predictive skill for ENSO that is seen in operational seasonal forecast models [ 44 ] up to several seasons ahead translates into important information for agriculture management in the Philippines and the possibility to mitigate some of the ENSO-induced effects on rice yields.

The annual cycle is removed and yield anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average. The soil moisture data are area averaged for each political region corresponding to the rice yield data.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g004

The correlation between rice production anomalies in upland rainfed and lowland irrigated systems is stronger in annual data ( Fig 1B ) than in the quarterly data ( Fig 1D ). On a regional level, there is a differential response to climate forcing between these two different management systems. For rice yield in particular, the response to soil moisture changes is, not unexpectedly, stronger for rainfed than for irrigated crops ( Fig 4 ). Previous work found that on a global scale as well, yield losses during El Niño events are greater in rainfed areas compared to irrigated regions [ 26 ]. This shows that irrigation can provide a potentially useful management tool to mitigate climate impacts on rice production in the Philippines. At the same time soil moisture conditions are a direct proxy for local water availability–a major limiting factor for crop yield and production [ 45 ]–which could explain the correlations seen between irrigated rice yields and soil moisture anomalies in Quarter 2 ( Fig 4F ).

When looking at specific regions of high rice production ( S2 Fig ) on Luzon Island (large island in the northern Philippines that includes the regions Cagayan and Central Luzon) and Mimaropa (Southwestern islands within the Philippines), production and yield responses to soil moisture anomalies are not always consistent between these areas (Figs 3 & 4 ). Mimaropa exhibits one of the most consistently positive correlations between soil moisture anomalies and crop output in the Philippines, both in terms of total production and crop yield, and in rainfed and irrigated systems alike. In Central Luzon on the other hand, the response is more variable, and correlations are generally low for rice yields. Negative correlations between soil moisture and yield or production in some quarters and regions may reflect the damaging impact of flooding on rice, which happens fairly frequently [ 42 ]. Due to this nonlinear impact of rainfall on rice yield (i.e., an increase of rainfall can lead to either positive or negative rice yield depending on thresholds in the system), the actual yield variance explained by climate might be larger than suggested by linear correlation analysis, which should be explored further in future studies.

Sensitivity to climate in the future

As we have shown here, climate-induced rice production variability in the Philippines over the past three decades has mostly been related to soil moisture changes, which in turn were associated with large-scale inter-annual rainfall variability caused by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This is in line with previous studies that show that although rice is grown over a large environmental range in both temperate and tropical areas [ 46 ], more variance in yield in tropical areas is usually due to precipitation (and thus also soil moisture) rather than temperature. Generally, tropical environments have relatively small variability in temperature, so other factors such as solar radiation, precipitation, or soil nutrient availability have a larger impact on crop production [ 47 ]. However, this particular expression of crop sensitivity to large-scale climate may fundamentally change in a warming climate [ 48 ].

In the Philippines, temperatures year-round are currently within the range of favorable growing conditions for rice ( Fig 5 ). Despite the fact that we see a significant proportion of variance explained by ENSO-mediated soil moisture variability, in the future the effect of temperature is likely to become increasingly important: If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, by the end of the century summers in the Philippines will be warmer than during the historical record [ 12 ]. Fig 5 shows the year-to-year variability in present-day quarterly temperatures, and how this is projected to change with 2 and 4°C of global warming. Over the past century, quarterly temperatures averaged over the Philippines never exceeded 27°C. With 2°C of global warming, median quarterly temperatures would be outside of the present-day range. With 4°C of global warming, year-to-year temperature variability will be entirely above the range of present-day variability. The effects of this will be particularly impactful during the dry season in Quarter 2, when temperatures are already high and there is low capacity for mitigation through soil moisture.

The variance in future temperatures represents inter-model spread and present-day interannual variability. Occurrence points of rice in the tropics (23.5°S–23.5°N) using quarterly data are plotted in grey, with frequencies rescaled by a factor of 4. Rice location data were downloaded from Genesys PGR [ 78 ].

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g005

Under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5), the global mean temperature is projected to increase by 2°C as early as 2042, with a median prediction of 2055, and by 4°C between 2075 and 2132. Even in an emissions scenario aiming to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by mid-21st century (RCP 4.5), global mean temperature could rise by 2°C as early as 2052 [ 40 ]. Based on the temperature projections for these global warming targets, the Philippines is thus likely to see a fundamental shift in the climate–rice relationship over the course of the next few decades. This analysis focuses only on seasonal-mean temperature projections. However, the average precipitation, inter-annual climate variability, and the frequency of extremes may change as well, but projections for these are much more uncertain.

Regional and quarterly data of climate variability and rice production in the Philippines show that ENSO-induced changes in soil moisture are a major source of climate-driven production variability, especially during the dry season. Wet-season soil moisture changes seem to be more stochastically driven, and therefore more independent from large-scale climate forcing such as ENSO. During this main growing season background soil moisture conditions are high, so factors other than climate drive planting decisions and crop yields. The sensitivity to climate variability is higher in upland rainfed systems than in lowland irrigated systems, and varies strongly by region.

Regional differences in crop-climate relationships could be partly explained by differences in soil type, which determine water-holding capacity and thus soil moisture content and cropping patterns. Other factors that contribute to regional differences include different rice variety choices, different management practices (fertilization, mechanization, planting date, post-harvest storage), as well as different market demands. Cropping calendars also differ across political regions, which creates a differential ability to respond to climate events (e.g., ENSO), accentuating seasonal differences and changing vulnerability. Predictions of ENSO conditions are skillful in the current generation of seasonal forecast models [ 44 ], which translates into information that can be utilized for agriculture management in the Philippines and provides a possibility to mitigate some of the effects of ENSO on rice yields and production. Importantly, extreme ENSO events (such as the 1997/98 El Niño) that lead to large disruptions of the tropical hydroclimate, are projected to occur more frequently by the end of the century in response to greenhouse gas forcing [ 49 ]. Thus, the dual calamity of projected changes of both the climate mean state and ENSO-induced hydroclimate variability will likely constitute significant challenges to future rice production in the Philippines.

Implications for food security in the Philippines

In any given year national production may be adequate, but there might be severe regional shortfalls that impact both food price and security. In the Philippines, regional shortfalls are evident in years when severe natural disasters occurred [ 42 ]. Regions of high mean production ( S2 Fig ) and yield ( S3 Fig ) naturally dominate the signal seen in national production and yield data ( Fig 1 & S1 Fig ). However, individual regions and provinces may experience food insecurity that differ from those seen at the national level and can potentially be more severe. The regional relationships between climate variability and production/yield in combination with both the regional long-term mean production/yield and seasonal climate forecasts might help to mitigate future impacts.

Food in the Philippines is relatively mobile, but food prices are more volatile in years with natural disasters [ 50 ] and yield shortfalls may disproportionately impact small holders [ 51 ]. These negative effects might be mitigated by changing land use patterns, production techniques, or germplasm (breeding material, crop types stored in gene banks, heirloom types, or wild relatives). In the past, land policies in the Philippines have favored expansion of production [ 52 ], focusing on increased planting of annual staples [ 53 ]. This has led to a steady increase in area under cultivation, including areas that were historically used for other crops. Further, domestic Philippine rice production has been incentivized [ 53 ]. As a result, rice yields increased ~1% a year during the second half of the 20 th century due to both management and genetics [ 54 ], while the area of rice production increased by 50% [ 16 ].

Nonetheless, the Philippines are a large importer of rice (~10% of marketed rice per year). This is due geography [ 55 ], international policy pressure [ 56 ], and colonial history [ 56 ], with imports increasing during times of stress (e.g., during the 1997/98 El Niño when rice imports tripled due to fewer harvestable hectares [ 16 ]). This has led to calls for self-sufficiency in rice production which, while possible, would be difficult to achieve with current agricultural policy in the Philippines [ 56 ] that can leave rice markets susceptible to price increases [ 20 ]. It is hypothesized that if there is renewed investment in agriculture, coupled with improved technology and skillful seasonal forecasting, imports could be reduced, helping to increase domestic food security. However, it is unclear if increased investments will provide the necessary buffer to the system to maintain production increases, especially in a changing climate. Additionally, there have been substantial efforts to breed drought resistant rice, with mixed results, due to the trait complexity [ 57 ], though new varieties show promise [ 58 ].

The north-central area of the Philippines is one of the longest continuously-cultivated areas of rice production in the world. Over time, the objectives of breeding and agronomic endeavors have changed, from local heirloom grown on terraces to mega-varieties grown in an industrial setting across millions of hectares [ 59 ]. At the moment, there is increasing interest in heirloom varieties with specific growth environments as a source of both food and export potential [ 60 ]. In subsistence settings, rice farming is supplemented by local trade economies that can increase local food security [ 61 ]. Moreover, there is a complex agricultural landscape established in the northern Philippines, specifically in Ifugao (rice terraces), where historic intensification has been accompanied by extensification [ 62 ]. These examples support the idea that the agro-cultural context can help mitigate the impacts of environmental pressure on food security.

The role of temperature variability

Our results indicate that temperature variability at present is not a big driver of rice production variability ( S4 Fig ). Under continued greenhouse gas emissions however, the range of temperature variability in the Philippines is projected to be outside the present-day envelope by the end of the century ( Fig 5 ). Increasing temperatures will have major implications for rice production in the Philippines. Recent work estimated that for every degree Celsius global temperature increase, global mean rice yields will decline by 3.2 ± 3.7% [ 63 ]. These reductions were projected without consideration of potential CO 2 fertilization, adaptation in agronomic practices, or genetic adaptation [ 63 ]. While a recent meta-analysis identified an increase in yields under increased CO 2 , this may not be an even increase across crops or regions [ 64 ]. Additionally, a comparison between historic and modern cultivars suggests that during modern breeding there has not been a selection for increased response to increased CO 2 concentrations [ 65 ], limiting the potential future CO 2 -fertilization effect.

The temperature sensitivity of crops is dependent on growth stage [ 66 ], time of day, and time of year, but generally a temperature increase of one degree can decrease yields by up to 10% once a temperature threshold is reached in rice [ 67 ; 68 ; 69 ; 70 ]. Due to this nonlinear threshold behavior, the relative importance of temperature variability to yield variability ( S4 Fig ) may increase in a warmer climate. The combined effects of high temperatures and moisture deficits could critically alter the seasonality and locality of the impact of ENSO on rice production. Furthermore, by the end of the century, inter-annual climate variability will regularly push climate in the Philippines outside the climatic range of current tropical gene accessions ( Fig 5 ). Most tropical rice accessions currently grow at quarterly temperatures below 28°C. In a 4°C warmer world, median quarterly temperatures will exceed this threshold year-round. In the second quarter in particular, temperatures will already regularly exceed 28°C with just 2°C of global warming. The performance of tropical rice crops in these climatic conditions has not been tested and is thus potentially a large threat to future food security.

Implications for plant breeding

The ability to increase yields under rising temperatures is a major target for plant breeders [ 71 ]. However, modern crop plants have undergone two significant population bottlenecks–the first during domestication and the second during improvement processes–that have resulted in a significant decrease of the crop’s genetic diversity relative to their wild progenitors [ 72 ]. For instance, modern Asian rice retains ~80% of the genetic diversity of its wild progenitor [ 73 ]. Generally, plant breeding involves crossing 'good by good', a strategy that results in a continuing loss of genetic diversity. Breeding targets focused on yield and quality have often left behind traits from landraces (heirloom lines that have not undergone modern breeding) and crop wild relatives [ 74 ]. Among these are many traits associated with tolerance to abiotic stress associated with climate change [ 75 ]. There have been increasing efforts to collect data surrounding landrace and wild material in germplasm collections (phenotypes, genotypes, biophysical, environmental) [ 74 ], which has led to the creation of a platform to understand the fastest and most practical way to bring in traits from landrace and wild crop material [ 76 ]. Breeding is a long-term endeavor, with a long research and development time [ 77 ]. This lag time requires a forward-looking approach in order to have plant material ready to be used in the field in time for projected changes in climate. By estimating the current and future temperature envelope of rice production in the Philippines, and comparing this to bioclimatic data of collection locations of rice accessions ( Fig 5 ), we have reduced the number of potential parents that could be used to breed for climate change, thus implementing the first stage of utilizing collections for breeding for climate change.

Conclusions

There is an increasing need to understand how climate variability will impact rice yields and production, particularly as human population continues to increase and climate changes. Comparing multiple spatial scales allows for a more complete understanding of what types of policy recommendations should be made, as it allows for a direct partitioning into the political units that are most likely to be effective at driving landscape change. This study identified ENSO as driving a significant part of soil moisture variability in the Philippines, which in turn is correlated with rice production and yield variability. Therefore, skillful seasonal predictions can provide useful information for agriculture management to mitigate climate-induced effects on rice production and yield. Future tropical climates is likely to be outside the range of optimal temperatures for rice production. This is true in the Philippines, and will likely require a modification of both genetics and agronomic practices. Detailed case studies like this will complement global yield impact studies and provide important local perspectives.

Supporting information

S1 fig. national-level rice yields in the philippines from 1987–2016: irrigated (blue) and rainfed (red) farming techniques..

The linear correlation coefficient R denotes the simultaneous correlation. a) Annual rice yield in the Philippines; b) annual rice yield anomalies (with regard to a 7 yr moving average); c) quarterly rice yield.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s001

S2 Fig. Long-term quarterly mean (1987–2016) rice production for both rainfed and irrigated systems.

Note that grid point values indicate the mean production value of the whole associated province.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s002

S3 Fig. Long-term quarterly mean (1987–2016) rice yield for both rainfed and irrigated systems.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s003

S4 Fig. Correlation coefficient R between and quarterly rice yield and surface temperature anomalies in the previous quarter.

The annual cycle is removed and yield anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average. The temperature data are area averaged for each political region corresponding to the rice yield data.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s004

S1 Table. The table shows if rice is planted or harvested in the administrative regions of the Philippines according the PhilRice planting calendar.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s005

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Axel Timmermann, Stephen Acabado, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.

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• 42. Israel, DC, Briones, RM. Impacts of natural disasters on agriculture, food security, and natural resources and environment in the Philippines (No. 2012–36). PIDS discussion paper series. 2012
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Life of Local Farmers (Rice): A Phenomenological Study

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While they may complain about the price of rice in supermarkets or enjoy so-called  unli-rice  meals at their favorite fast-food chains, urban Filipinos don’t always appreciate just how crucial rice is to our culture and way of life. And it’s not just because we’re among the world’s biggest consumers of rice per capita. More than a tenth of Filipinos rely on rice as a source of income as well as sustenance.

By some estimates, there are 10 million rice farmers in the Philippines, a country of just over 100 million. When you include people in rice trade and processing, as well the dependents of everyone in the rice business, you begin to see how much of the social and economic impact of  rice in the Philippines . 

Unfortunately, rice farmers, the very people we Filipinos depend on for the bulk of our caloric requirements, are among the most disadvantaged in the country. Decades of systemic problems have resulted in a situation where farmers are finding it harder and harder to make a living. Below are some of the serious challenges Filipino rice farmers face.

1.) High Input Costs

Many Filipino farmers are simply unable to take their production further due to the high expense of many critical inputs. Compounding this is the low  palay  prices that could be expected after harvesting, which keeps many farmers in a perpetual state of struggle and often in serious debt. 

Partly due to market forces and exploitative practices, basics such as fertilizers, high-yield seed grains, and mechanized farm equipment are prohibitively priced for many farmers, who must then struggle harder to produce a profitable crop through more labor-intensive methods. Advanced farm inputs such as agricultural drones and AI and data-driven farming, which would save labor and prevent waste, are even more out of reach. 

2.) Lack of Post-Harvest Facilities 

Most of the crop losses of farmers are post-harvest. This has been largely attributed to the historically poor private and public investment in infrastructure that can prevent these losses.

The lack of storage facilities, farm-to-market roads, and equipment needed to prevent losses from exposure, pests, and natural deterioration have been perennial issues for Filipino farmers. 

The lack of these facilities and equipment makes it difficult for most farmers to produce enough to turn in a profit, as these losses destroy a significant portion of crops even before they make it to market.

Additionally, the lack of these basic amenities makes it difficult or even impossible for farmers to earn enough to ensure a succeeding harvest without needing to take on significant loans.

3.) Climate Change

Climate change is causing seasonal typhoons to happen more frequently and with more ferocity while leading to dry seasons with unheard-of high temperatures. Both of these situations are damaging enough for most farms’ productivity. However, the negative effects of climate change do not stop there. 

Climate change has also led to rising sea levels, a serious matter in an archipelagic country with a population that mostly resides and farms in the lowlands. Signs of saltwater intrusion have already been detected all over the country, in most of its so-called “rice bowls,” with experts predicting a crisis before the end of the decade. If it comes to pass, it could render millions of hectares of riceland unsuitable for most of today’s widely used rice cultivars.

4.) Market Forces

The market for rice has changed much over the past generation. Not only are cheaper imports from Vietnam and other Asian countries pricing Filipino farmers out, but domestic rice consumption has also been dropping slowly over the past few decades.

Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, the cost of necessary inputs only continues to rise. This has created severe pressures for rice farmers throughout the country, causing many to abandon farming to take their chances in the country’s urban centers.

5.) Land Rent

While land rent could be considered as another high-input cost, this is a uniquely serious issue given its political nature and also because most Filipino farmers do not own the land they cultivate.

Most of the ASEAN had implemented agrarian land reform policies decades ago to ensure not only food security but also better lives for their farmers. The Philippines has been late in implementing its own watered-down take on land distribution. The result is many farmers receive too little, too late and are often motivated to sell whatever land they do receive.

6.) Demographics

Fewer and fewer farmers want their children to have the life that they do. As a result, most of them do everything they can to ensure their children get better-paying jobs, often in the cities. As a result, the average age of Filipino farmers is 53, as few younger people are willing to take up farming. This means that productivity per farmer can be expected to fall, especially for such physically demanding crops as rice.

This is not an issue unique to the Philippines. Japan’s farmers, for instance, have an average age of 66. While more automation and technology more than made up for the labor shortfall in Japan’s case, it is doubtful that the same could be said of the Philippines, as the foundations for more widespread technology adoption are still in the process of being built. 

While these issues are very serious, there have also been major inroads made towards mitigating or even solving them. Investment in farms and farmers continues to rise, albeit slowly, and new labor and cost-efficient methods are continuously being adopted by Filipinos at all points of the agricultural supply chain.

But while there is hope for the future, many Filipino rice farmers today will continue to face these issues — even as they feed a country that does not always appreciate them.

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Filipino Rice Farmers: What We Can Learn from their Struggle

The complex situation of filipino rice farmers.

How does a country like the Philippines, with a long history of rice production employing a significant chunk of its population, become the number one importer of rice, beating even China? It is a long and complex story, of course, and one that doesn’t always center the Filipino rice farmers themselves.

It is a story of tax reforms, import regulations, and a government’s choices and regarding its people.

Over the past two to three decades, many factors have negatively impacted rice farming in the Philippines. These include human negligence and natural disasters to name a couple. However, the industry suffered the most significant hit at the hands of its own government. Filipino government implemented a policy allegedly intended to improve conditions for all Filipinos, including Filipino rice farmers.

How Policy Affects Filipino Rice Farmers

This policy was the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL). They ratified it in February 2019.  Quota restrictions previously controlled rice imports. This law opened up these imports completely and only an import tariff regulated them. The government stated that purpose of this new law was to stop rapid inflation. The aim was to support food security for all Filipinos, and not only protecting the smaller group of Filipino rice producers. Inflation did indeed slow. Allegedly, the benefits for the general population, such as lower prices for rice, would by far outweigh losses in the rice production sector. However, the Federation of Free Farmers , an organization created in 1953 to bring about nonviolent reform to support peasants’ rights, conducted a study on the matter. They revealed that farmers are in a much worse situation now than they were prior to the RTL.

Under this new rice law, a significant portion of the tariff on rice imports was intended to support the modernization and improvement of local rice farming practices. These improvements should have included specialized machinery and other subsidies. The idea was to boost production and thus make Filipino rice farmers more competitive, both locally and internationally. Sadly, one year after the implementation of the law, the promised machinery has yet to be delivered. Several other promises remain unfulfilled as well.

Shifting Agriculture & Social Dynamics

Currently, Filipino rice farmers and their families find themselves seeking other employment in urban areas. They are mostly finding work in construction, food services, factories, and domestic work. These jobs don’t necessarily offer better income than rice farming, but they do provide more stability, and moreover often include non-monetary benefits such as health insurance and paid leave. The migration of farmworkers to cities translates into abandoned farmland, sometimes repurposed for other uses, including real-estate development.

Questions arise:

Is the gradual elimination of local agricultural production going to ensure food security for a rapidly growing population of over 100 million people?

Is the government acting in the interest of all of its people?

Small movements towards organic agriculture offer glimmers of hope as the global trend of sustainable food systems that care for the soil, water, and environment slowly gains traction. Within this framework, “the old ways” are embraced and combined with new eco-friendly technologies and practices.

The Greater Population or Those Who Feed Them?

Right now, given the COVID-19 pandemic, it is clear that the government will continue to focus on how to feed the majority of its population, rather than on how to improve the situation of the roughly three million people whose livelihoods depend on growing rice. At the beginning of April of this year, the Philippine government signed an agreement with Vietnam, the world’s third largest rice exporter, to secure a continuous supply of as much as 300,000 tons of rice.

In times of crisis, urgent and immediate matters demand attention, often at the expense of more sustainable and longer-term planning. Depending on how long this global pandemic lasts, and as the food supply chain becomes increasingly strained by transport restrictions, the importance of having a healthy local production to guarantee food security may become more apparent.

Contemplating possible solutions? You can head over to this recent story and learn the steps proposed by the Producers Market team to help innovate and strengthen our value chains during disruptive times.

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• Philippines
• sustainable practices

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[OPINION] Why Filipino farmers suffer

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This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

Graphic by Alyssa Arizabal

Our country is no stranger to crisis. From natural calamities to social and political turbulence, the Philippines consistently ranks among the riskiest countries in the world. 

Last year, we were subjected to a major crisis with the spread of COVID-19. And then, as if one humanitarian crisis was not enough, it was also during the spread of the virus when typhoons wreaked havoc on the country.

Indeed, to live in the Philippines means to live in constant danger and uncertainty. 

But there is one sector that bears the brunt of these crises the most. Considered the backbone of our society, the agriculture sector responds to our public health needs by ensuring food security for every Filipino. Yet despite their crucial role, Filipino agricultural workers remain among the poorest and most disadvantaged groups in our society.  The high level of poverty among our farmers also makes them highly at risk for the effects of these crises. 

With these things in mind, I wanted to know how these crises affected the agriculture sector specifically, and how our common farmers coped and dealt with the impacts of these crises. Essentially, I wanted to dig deeper and find the underlying reason why our Filipino farmers suffer. 

In November 2020, I decided to visit a small rice farming barangay in Laguna to conduct a study.

My stay in the community lasted for three days, and in that span of time, I was able to interview different farmers and hear their narratives. They shared that the pandemic had brought out certain issues such as mobility, but since farmers are recognized as essential workers, their agricultural work was generally unhampered.

They complained more, however, about the damage caused by the consecutive typhoons. The persistent rainfall and strong winds submerged their fields in floodwater and destroyed much of their crops. The farmers lamented that these impacts would affect them for months. 

What struck me most was how these situations had became normal among the farmers. They tended to view crises as “beyond their control,” and had gradually learned to develop an acceptance of their conditions. As one of the farmers put it, “Wala nang magagawa. Wala naman pating may gusto noon eh” (We can’t do anything about it. It’s not like anyone wants it to happen, anyway). For them, crises are a fact of life; they are inevitable risks associated with farming. 

We may consider their attitude a component of resiliency. It is their way of framing their situation in a more favorable manner. But it is also a symptom of a more complex and insidious problem that has been plaguing the agriculture sector for decades. 

[OPINION] Knowing the Filipino farmer

The underlying reason

When asked about the greatest problem they currently face, the farmers mentioned neither the effects of the pandemic nor the typhoon. What they were troubled about was the volatility of palay prices in the market – a longstanding concern among rice farmers even prior to the pandemic.

The declining prices of rice in the market can be attributed to the intensive neoliberalization of our country’s economy. There are hopes that neoliberalization can bring development and an improved quality of life, especially in developing countries such as the Philippines.

The liberalization process of agriculture in the country is then manifested through the following: the removal of price and market controls, the promotion of importation, the reduction of state intervention, and the privatization of services. The belief is that by opening the economy, reducing the barriers in competition, and allowing the private sector to take more active roles, these will ultimately enhance the quality of agricultural services and improve the lives of ordinary farmers.

But the experiences of the farmers tell a different story. 

Because the majority of farmers do not have their own land, they become dependent on tenancy or contract-growing arrangements, which put them at the mercy of landlords, traders, or middlemen. Due to the removal of state controls on agriculture-related commodities, the prices of agricultural inputs, such as seeds, fertilizers, etc. also increase drastically. Inadequate investment in infrastructure likewise add to the problems. Furthermore, the influx of huge quantities of cheap rice because of extensive importation causes the farm gate price of domestic rice to plummet. These factors force many farmers into debt-bondage, thus perpetuating the vicious cycle of poverty among them. 

Instead of delivering the promised development, the intensified liberalization of agriculture only resulted in greater burdens for the farmers to bear. Instead of empowering them, it only heightened their vulnerability. 

How climate change, lack of insurance, push farmers out of agribusiness

Farmers’ aspirations

These challenges definitely dampen the spirits of the farmers. Some of them express that they do not want to see their children following in their footsteps, because they do not want them to suffer the same fate. They would rather see their children earning a college education and seeking  higher paying occupations, as farming is not remunerative enough. 

In addition, the farmers bemoaned the lack of adequate support from the government, leading them to think that it is only the big capitalists that benefit from the current system. If the status quo doesn’t change and their concerns remain unaddressed, they said there was a possibility that more workers in agriculture would develop feelings of resentment toward the state.  

But despite all these, many farmers remain optimistic about the agricultural industry in our country. Agriculture, for them, will always remain an important sector, vital in combating a lot of issues confronting contemporary society. Support, then, is greatly needed by agricultural workers and reforms must be done at the national level.

Before I bade the farmers goodbye, I caught a glimpse of their rice fields. The sun had already started to set, but I could still see the outlines of the plants, damaged by rain, the fields completely underwater. I glanced at the farmers, and behind their masks were tired and weary faces. Still, there was that spark of hope in their eyes.

Sure enough, crises put farmers in difficult and challenging situations. But it is not these crises that necessarily put them at a disadvantage. In my conversations with them, I realized that larger, structural forces may have increased their vulnerability and weakened their capacity to withstand such situations. It is the social and economic barriers, not the crises per se, that make it difficult for them to adapt and be resilient. 

So as long as these structural barriers are dismantled, the common Filipino farmer will continue to suffer.  – Rappler.com

John Patrick Habacon is a social science instructor at Lyceum of the Philippines University and also a graduate student of Sociology at the University of the Philippines Los Baños. His research interests focus on agricultural communities and vulnerable groups. 

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The Rice Price Cap in the Philippines: Pros, Cons, and Long-Term Implications

• Mariel Vincent Rapisura
• No Comments.
• Business , Financial Inclusion , Financial Literacy , Microenterprise , Microfinance , Nanoenterprise

In the wake of soaring rice prices, the Philippines has found itself in the midst of a contentious debate over the imposition of a rice price ceiling. As the staple food of the nation, rice plays an integral role in the daily lives of millions, making its affordability and accessibility crucial.

President Bongbong Marcos, wearing dual hats as the President and Concurrent Agriculture Secretary, implemented a price cap on this essential commodity, setting the stage for a series of events that have highlighted economic disparities, government intervention mechanisms, and the intricacies of market dynamics.

With Executive Order No. 39, the government set price ceilings for both regular milled rice and well-milled rice. While this move was intended to counteract alleged illegal activities like hoarding and to mitigate external global pressures, it has elicited various responses from different sectors.

Finance officials have resigned, economists have voiced concerns over potential shortages, and retailers grapple with the economic realities of the decision. As the country navigates this complex scenario, the repercussions of this policy extend beyond just the rice fields and markets, influencing broader conversations about governance, economics, and the welfare of the Filipino populace.

Price Cap in Economics: A Primer

A price cap, as defined in economic terms, refers to the maximum price set by a governing authority on a specific good or service to ensure that it remains affordable and accessible to the general population. It is an interventionist measure typically instituted in situations where market dynamics are perceived to fail, either due to external pressures or alleged illicit activities.

In the context of the Philippines’ recent rice crisis, President Bongbong Marcos introduced a price cap to counteract two primary concerns:

• Alleged illegal price manipulation attributed to hoarding by traders and suspected collusion among industry cartels.
• External global pressures beyond the Philippines’ control, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India’s ban on rice exportation, and fluctuations in global oil prices.

By imposing a price ceiling on rice, the government aimed to stabilize the commodity’s price in the face of these challenges, ensuring that Filipinos could afford this staple food item.

Price Cap and the Filipino Consumer

The introduction of the rice price cap in the Philippines came as a direct response to the mounting concerns over rising prices and allegations of illegal price manipulation. This move was primarily aimed at favoring the Filipino consumer. However, like any economic measure, it presents both advantages and unintended challenges.

The most immediate positive outcome is making essential goods like rice more affordable. Given that rice is a foundational food for Filipinos, its affordability directly influences the well-being of the majority. By mandating a price cap, the government attempts to ensure that even when faced with market fluctuations, the cost of rice remains accessible to the typical Filipino consumer. Moreover, the price cap serves as a protective shield for consumers against price gouging and speculative behaviors. The decision to implement this measure was partially influenced by concerns about illicit price manipulations, including hoarding and collusion amongst industry magnates. With a cap in place, the objective is to maintain price stability, ensuring fairness for all consumers.

However, this intervention isn’t without its potential pitfalls. One of the most cited concerns is the risk of a shortage if the set price falls below the market equilibrium. When price ceilings are artificially lower than what the market would naturally dictate, it can cause a surge in demand while simultaneously diminishing supply. An economist has voiced concerns suggesting that the price cap’s sustained enforcement might lead us directly into these shortages. This perspective aligns with the insights of Finance Undersecretary Shelo Magno, who emphasized the law of supply. According to this economic principle, as the price of a commodity drops, the quantity supplied might also see a decline.

Furthermore, there’s the looming risk tied to product quality. Given the price constraints, retailers, especially those who procured rice at steeper prices, might face losses. This economic pinch could then drive suppliers and retailers to find shortcuts to uphold their profit margins. Such shortcuts could detrimentally impact the rice’s quality. In trying to maintain profitability, some retailers might prioritize cheaper rice variants or opt for blending different grades of rice.

While the rice price cap is rooted in the noble intention of shielding the Filipino consumer, its extensive repercussions continue to be a point of debate among economists, retailers, and government bodies. The true challenge is striking a balance—ensuring immediate relief for consumers without compromising the long-term stability of the market and the quality of goods.

Impacts of the Price Cap on Rice Farmers

Rice farmers, as the primary producers of this staple, bear the brunt of any market fluctuations and policy shifts. The recent institution of a price cap has raised questions about its implications for these farmers, who are often at the mercy of volatile market dynamics. How does this price regulation support or challenge their livelihoods? This section seeks to provide insights into the impact of the price cap on the farmers, capturing both the potential opportunities and the inherent risks.

On the brighter side, the price cap provides rice farmers with a degree of financial predictability. They can be somewhat comforted by the fact that there’s a guaranteed floor price for their harvest. This assurance protects them against the potential pitfalls of drastically plummeting market prices. Furthermore, if consumers find the capped price appealing and affordable, it could generate increased demand. Such a surge in demand would translate to higher sales volumes for farmers, thereby amplifying their market presence and revenue.

However, every silver lining has a cloud, and in this context, the potential challenges farmers face under the price cap are manifold. Experts, including the likes of Punong Bayan, point out a significant concern: the price cap might not necessarily align with the escalating production costs. If these costs outpace the fixed selling price, farmers could grapple with financial losses. This discrepancy between production costs and selling price is especially concerning in scenarios where external factors, such as climatic changes or global market shifts, hike up production expenses.

Moreover, the very essence of a price cap might inadvertently stifle innovation among farmers. When there’s a ceiling on potential revenue, the incentive for farmers to embrace advanced farming techniques or to channel investments into productivity-boosting mechanisms diminishes. After all, if the return on investment appears bleak in the light of the price cap, why would they venture into uncharted territories of innovation?

The intricate balance of ensuring affordability for consumers while maintaining profitability for producers is a challenging act. For rice farmers, the price cap brings both opportunities and uncertainties. As the Philippine government navigates this complex issue, continuous engagement with farmers and understanding their concerns will be pivotal to ensuring that policy decisions genuinely benefit the broader Filipino community.

Price Cap from the Perspective of Rice Traders

Rice traders operating at the heart of the rice distribution system, play a crucial role in ensuring that this staple reaches Filipino tables. As they grapple with the new pricing regulations, it becomes essential to understand the potential benefits and challenges they face.

One clear advantage is the predictability in pricing. With a price cap in place, rice traders can anticipate the maximum price at which rice can be sold. This can help them strategize their buying, storage, and selling decisions. As President Bongbong Marcos mentioned, this price cap is a temporary measure, which may offer some traders a sense of solace knowing it’s not a permanent market condition.

Additionally, there’s a possible surge in the volume of sales. If consumers perceive the capped price as fair and affordable, they may be more inclined to buy rice. This could potentially lead to increased sales volumes, compensating, to some extent, for the reduced price per kilo.

However, on the flip side, the price cap brings with it certain undeniable challenges. As highlighted by the news from ANC, some rice retailers experienced losses immediately after the implementation of the price cap. One retailer noted a loss of P9,000 on the first day, and the Grain Retailers Confederation indicated that an average retailer selling 20 sacks of rice per day might lose up to 49,000 pesos of potential profit per week.

If the capped price is too close to or even below the cost of acquiring and selling rice, traders could face significant challenges in covering their operational costs. This is especially concerning for retailers who had bought rice at a higher price before the cap and now have to sell at a lower price. Such concerns were echoed by the president when he acknowledged that some retailers bought rice at a higher price and would now be obligated to sell it at a reduced price due to the cap.

The economic perspective provided suggests that if the price cap is set below the equilibrium, it can lead to shortages. This imbalance where demand exceeds supply could strain traders, potentially causing them to run out of stock prematurely. Economists like Punongbayan have cautioned about the implications of such price ceilings, emphasizing the potential disincentive for producers to sell rice, which can directly impact the traders who rely on these producers.

The Rice Tariffication Law and its Implications

The Philippine agricultural landscape underwent a significant transformation with the introduction of the Rice Tariffication Law. Aimed at liberalizing the rice industry, this law was intended to meet the country’s rice consumption needs while attempting to make the sector more competitive. However, the resulting changes sparked debates over its implications, especially concerning local rice producers and market dynamics.

The Rice Tariffication Law replaced quantitative restrictions on rice imports with tariffs, thus allowing private sectors to import rice. It aimed to stabilize prices and supply, benefiting Filipino consumers through potentially lower rice prices.

By lifting the quantitative restrictions, the Philippines saw an influx of rice imports. The newfound ease of importing rice meant that local demand could be quickly met by rice from international sources, often at cheaper prices.

The influx of cheaper imported rice posed challenges for local rice producers, as they struggled to compete with these prices. The absence of a protective barrier resulted in local farmers facing the pressure of reduced prices for their produce.

Given the backdrop of the Rice Tariffication Law, the challenges faced by local producers and the price volatility in the market were exacerbated. Factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India’s rice export ban, and fluctuating global oil prices further added to the market instability. This environment, coupled with alleged illegal activities like hoarding, created a situation that seemingly necessitated government intervention, leading to the rice price cap.

The Rice Tariffication Law, while designed with the intent to provide Filipinos with affordable rice, has demonstrated the intricacies and unforeseen challenges of market liberalization. As the Philippines grapples with ensuring food security, the rice price cap’s institution stands as a testament to the delicate interplay between policy decisions, market dynamics, and the livelihoods of thousands of rice farmers.

PhP20 Price of Rice: Political Promise or Practical Solution?

The price of rice has always held significant importance in the Filipino household, with any fluctuation having widespread ramifications on both the economy and daily living. The promise of bringing down the rice price to PhP20 per kilo was a political pledge that captured much attention. However, with the changing dynamics in the rice market and the various challenges, achieving this mark becomes a topic of debate.

The PhP20 price point is not a new phenomenon. In previous years, there have been instances where affordable rice prices have been achieved, with Rep. Rhea Vergara recalling a time when the cost was as low as PhP27 per kilo. This has set a precedent for the public, increasing the expectation for the government to regulate and maintain affordable rice prices.

According to Congresswoman Rhea Vergara, while there were initial meetings suggesting that the PhP20 per kilo price wasn’t attainable, she believes that under certain conditions, it might be possible. Vergara opines, “If the DA can provide the inputs, which is the most expensive part of farming, if we give our farmers the right seeds, support them 100 percent with fertilizer…then, yes, 20 pesos is achievable.” However, she also expressed doubts about its sustainability, suggesting a more realistic price point to be between PhP38 to PhP40 per kilo.

While a PhP20 price point would be welcomed by consumers, its ramifications go beyond just affordability. Such a price regulation can pose challenges for traders and retailers who would need to adjust their profit margins. Moreover, it places pressure on the government and associated bodies like the NFA to intervene, which can lead to significant economic decisions, such as providing subsidies. On the political front, while fulfilling the PhP20 promise could boost the government’s popularity, failing to do so might lead to public discontent.

Promising a PhP20 per kilo price for rice is a compelling political pledge, reflecting the government’s commitment to ensuring affordable living for its citizens. However, as elucidated by Rep. Rhea Vergara and the ongoing developments, achieving and maintaining this price point requires strategic interventions, a robust agricultural support system, and a consideration of its broader implications. Whether a political promise or a practical solution, it is a testament to the intricate relationship between economics, politics, and the Filipino way of life.

Moving Forward: Recommendations and Solutions

With the complex interplay of economics, politics, and agriculture at the forefront, ensuring affordable rice prices and a sustainable rice industry in the Philippines requires strategic solutions. Reflecting on the insights shared, particularly by Congresswoman Rhea Vergara, this section presents several recommendations to address the challenges currently faced by the rice sector.

Direct support to farmers can play a pivotal role in ensuring the rice industry’s viability. Congresswoman Vergara suggests implementing measures like a minimum support price, which considers production costs and other associated expenses. This ensures that farmers receive fair compensation for their produce. In addition, introducing subsidies or grants can also provide the much-needed financial buffer, protecting farmers from volatile market prices.

Investing in research can pave the way for improved yields, cost-effective farming practices, and resilient crops. By focusing on R&D, the Philippines can develop high-yielding varieties, better farming techniques, and innovative solutions to tackle challenges like pests and changing climatic conditions. As Vergara highlights the need for government support, providing farmers with the right seeds and comprehensive fertilizer assistance can significantly reduce production costs.

Given the ongoing challenges, there’s a clarion call to reassess the rice tariffication law. Vergara strongly believes in amending the law, suggesting reintroducing NFA’s role in stabilizing the rice market during emergencies. By allowing NFA to flood the market with affordable rice, it can counteract the manipulations by potential cartels and unscrupulous traders.

Promoting local production is crucial for the country’s food security and economic stability. By offering incentives, the government can motivate farmers to boost production and reduce dependency on imports. Additionally, linking farmers directly to end-users, as suggested by the Kadiwa initiative mentioned by Vergara, can eliminate middlemen, ensuring both farmers and consumers get a fair deal.

Addressing the rice industry’s challenges requires a holistic approach, encompassing direct farmer support, research investments, legislative amendments, and promoting local production. As the country navigates the intricate dynamics of rice production, prices, and market forces, these recommendations serve as potential pathways to ensure that both the producer and consumer benefit, ultimately leading to a self-sufficient and robust rice industry in the Philippines.

Navigating the Rice Terrain: Challenges and Opportunities

The intricate landscape of rice pricing and production in the Philippines has seen a series of ups and downs. The introduction of the rice price cap, alongside the broader discussions on rice tariffication and market dynamics, has only added to the complexities. This section will summarize the overarching challenges and opportunities stemming from these measures.

The price ceiling was introduced as a measure to control soaring rice prices. It brought about a guarantee for producers and potential increased demand from consumers at the capped price. However, as Congresswoman Rhea Vergara pointed out, while it addressed a price hike, it was merely “half the solution.” Challenges have emerged, such as the potential for costs to surpass production expenses and reduced incentives for innovation. Nevertheless, the ceiling also presented an opportunity: a clear signal against unbridled profiteering and a testament to the government’s commitment to consumer welfare.

The rice situation in the Philippines is not isolated to prices alone. It’s intertwined with global events, as seen with the impacts of the Russian-Ukraine war and local typhoons, the changing roles of agencies like NFA, and the evolving dynamics between farmers, traders, and consumers. As Vergara emphasized, addressing just one aspect will not yield the desired stability. Instead, a comprehensive approach is essential — one that takes into account the welfare of farmers, ensures fair pricing for consumers, promotes research and development, and creates avenues for direct links between producers and consumers.

Rice, as a staple in the Philippines, sits at the nexus of nutrition, economics, politics, and culture. The discussions on price caps, tariffication laws, and farmer welfare are emblematic of the challenges of ensuring food security in an increasingly complex global landscape. As the nation moves forward, the lessons from these episodes serve as crucial guideposts. A cohesive strategy that addresses each facet of the rice industry, backed by collaborative efforts from all stakeholders, will be instrumental in charting a stable and prosperous path for the Philippines’ rice sector.

Galang, B. (2023, September 1). Marcos sets price cap for rice. CNN Philippines . https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2023/9/1/marcos-sets-price-cap-for-rice.html

Gavilan, J. (2023, September 3). Marcos’ economic team backs rice price cap, group claims it’s harmful. Rappler . https://www.rappler.com/business/neda-statement-marcos-price-cap-rice-groups-react-september-2023/

Rivera, D. (2023, September 2). Rice price cap to affect farmers, consumers. Philippine Star . https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/09/02/2293214/rice-price-cap-affect-farmers-consumers

Suelto, D., & Cariaso, B. (2023, September 8). Rice traders bemoan daily losses price cap. Philstar . https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/09/08/2294621/rice-traders-bemoan-daily-losses-price-cap-

Unknown. (2023, September 5). Sinag on rice price cap. CNN Philippines . https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2023/9/5/sinag-on-rice-price-cap.html

ANC. (2023, September 9). Analyst Rice price cap product of poor planning by PH gov’t. YouTube . https://youtu.be/mlkjH-eeNi0?si=MqNiGJWH2i9qeJPJ

ANC. (2023, September 7). PH lawmaker Ria Vergara on rice price cap, rice situation in PH. YouTube . https://youtu.be/W3UGXhgS87Q?si=POhv9xs4kauJvARO

ANC. (2023, September 8). DOF official allegedly asked to resign for not supporting price cap order. YouTube . https://youtu.be/3zQZ-y1d_TY?si=C9bY98JWOnW2Hsdh

Inquirer. (2023, September 5). More rice due by mid-September, price cap temporary — Bongbong Marcos. YouTube . https://youtu.be/mn26x7Vl9W4?si=D59Aj04_LjueFFdo

Inquirer. (2023, September 9). Bongbong Marcos orders price caps for rice at P41 to P45 per kilo. YouTube . https://youtu.be/_FaoPTr4YwU?si=JSNlcYMLLvNWq-VK

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Philippine rice tariff cut will benefit Vietnam, not farmers, experts say

World's top rice importer moves to contain inflation with 'double-edged sword'

MANILA -- The Philippines, the world's top rice importer, is moving to cut tariffs on the staple food from 35% to 15% through 2028 to ease the country's inflation woes. But analysts worry the move could benefit foreign producers such as Vietnam and leave Filipino farmers struggling to compete.

The decision was announced Tuesday, following a meeting of an inter-agency panel headed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The move will lower prices for rice to "make it more affordable," Arsenio Balisacan, head of the National Economic and Development Authority, said in a statement.

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In the Philippines, stakeholders are charting the future of digital agriculture

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Policymakers, scientists, technology experts, and farmers convened to contextualize the current landscape, identify barriers and opportunities, and chart the future of digital agriculture in the Philippines.

LOS BAÑOS, Philippines (29 May 2024) - The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) headquarters in Los Baños, Laguna became a hub of digital agricultural innovation as it hosted the Philippine leg of the highly anticipated ICTforAg 2024. This year’s theme, “Localizing Impact through Inclusion, Inspiration, and Innovation,” underscored the need to tailor digital solutions to local agricultural landscapes' unique challenges and opportunities. 

Co-hosted by the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) and the Department of Agriculture Agricultural Training Institute (DA-ATI), ICTforAg kicked off with an opening program where Dr. Yvonne Pinto, IRRI Director General warmly welcomed the participants, and highlighted IRRI’s commitment to driving digital innovation in the sector “Together, we are leveraging information and communication technologies to drive transformative change in the agriculture sector,” she stated.

The event, attended by a diverse mix of policymakers, researchers, farmers, and technology enthusiasts, showcased the intersection of agriculture and technology in the Philippines. An exhibit viewing session also commenced where attendees explored cutting-edge technologies and initiatives that promise to transform agriculture.

The keynote address, delivered by Engr. Christopher Morales, DA Undersecretary for Rice Industry Development, discussed the government’s efforts to integrate digital tools into rice farming practices.

“As we look to the future, we envision a Philippine agriculture sector where digital technologies are a cornerstone of our national growth. However, this journey cannot be without challenges, and we must address issues such as digital literacy among farmers, infrastructure limitations, and data security,” said Usec. Christopher Morales.

In the face of climate change and fluctuating market prices, a shift to a more digital landscape in the agriculture sector can highly benefit farmers. In the Philippines, high labor costs are key factors in the country's lower rice production efficiency. To remain competitive, farmers can adopt ICT tools such as satellite remote sensing, drone mapping, and digital literacy programs. These technologies can boost yields, enhance productivity, and ensure food security.

Through several breakout sessions and plenary talks, ICTforAg delved into these various innovative projects and programs revolutionizing agriculture in the Philippines. Topics like linking producers and consumers through digital platforms, data-driven decision-making, and the digital agriculture landscape in the Philippines, highlighting tools like D4AgPH and the Global Market Intelligence Platform (GloMIP) , showcased innovative applications of precision spraying using vision-based velocity estimation.

Other notable projects were also discussed such as Project SARAI , which utilizes satellite remote sensing to provide critical data for crop estimation and yield prediction, enabling local government units to monitor agricultural areas efficiently. 

Social startups like Kita Agritech and GoEdenPH also talked about ways to bridge the digital divide by offering AI-driven crop models, financial literacy education, and creating the largest online agricultural supply platform, fostering trust and digital adoption among farmers. 

Innovative approaches in urban farming and precision agriculture were also highlighted, with SIGLA project’s indoor vertical farming with solar-powered modular farms, as well as drone technologies, revolutionizing pineapple and rice farming, with projects like Del Monte Philippines' drone mapping platforms and Drones4Rice . 

These technological advancements, combined with robust training programs and multi-stakeholder cooperations, position the Philippines to achieve greater agricultural resilience, productivity, and food security. “As we explore innovative solutions, it is essential that these technologies are not only sustainable but also inclusive. Together, we can forge pathways that will ensure that these advancements in agricultural technology leave no one behind,” said UPLB Chancellor Jose V. Camacho, Jr.

The ICTforAg in Los Baños showcased the future of agri-tech in the Philippines, emphasizing the continuous innovation that poses a potential transformation of the country's agricultural landscape. The discussions throughout the event emphasize the crucial expansion and the impact of these advancements on the future of agriculture, especially for farmers. As Assistant Director of DA-ATI Antonieta J. Arceo aptly stated, “ICT is not just about improving yields and profits, but also about empowering our farmers, preserving our environment, and ensuring food security for future generations.”

Gov’t slashes tariff on rice imports to help cut local prices

M ANILA, Philippines — The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) board, chaired by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has agreed to cut the tariff on rice to 15 percent from 35 percent to help bring down the price of the staple food to P29 a kilo for poor and vulnerable Filipinos.

In a press briefing in Malacañang on Tuesday, Neda Secretary Arsenio Balisacan announced the approval of the new Comprehensive Tariff Program (CTP) from 2024 to 2028 that also included reductions in tariffs on other essential items in the energy and manufacturing sectors and kept the prevailing low rates on key agricultural products.

READ: Tariff cut on imported rice: A gamble local farmers won’t take

Although rice prices would not drop drastically due to increasing world prices, Balisacan said the new tariff rates on rice and other products would “benefit everyone.”

“With the tariff reduction from 35 percent, everyone will benefit from that, and this is crucial because world prices are still increasing. If we don’t reduce the tariff, with the increasing world prices compounded by the 35-percent tariff over and above that, prices and inflation will remain to be a very serious problem. With this, we expect those upward pressures and rice prices to ease,” Balisacan noted.

READ: More cuts to rice tariffs urged to tame inflation

Inflation rose to 3.8 percent in April, of which nearly half (1.75 percentage points) was due to rice, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed.

Importers to benefit

Balisacan said Neda was optimistic that the lower tariff on the staple grain would bring down prices of rice to as low as P29 a kilo, making it affordable to the poor.

“The P29 is our target cost of rice for the poor, those who are targeted for the 4Ps. It’s not a general price. Our concern is, the government should help those who are least able to cope with the rice price,” Balisacan pointed out, referring to Filipinos who are beneficiaries of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program.

Additional financial support for the poor to improve their access to affordable rice at Kadiwa centers will be channeled through the 4Ps program of the Department of Social Welfare and Development, which will also ramp up its implementation of its food stamp program.

He said the lower prices of rice were expected to be felt within the year as soon as the President issues an executive order to implement the new tariff scheme.

Jayson Cainglet, executive director of the agricultural advocacy group Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, expressed disappointment in the tariff rate cuts, noting that lowering rice tariffs had not resulted in more affordable rice prices and had benefited only a few privileged rice importers and traders for the past years.

“Reduced rice tariffs paved the way for more rice imports, and yet rice prices have only gone up,” Cainglet said in a Viber message.

Manufacturing inputs

The latest CTP, which is reviewed every five years, also maintained the current rates ranging from zero to 65 percent on several agricultural and industrial products.

Balisacan said the Neda board agreed to maintain the current rates on raw materials and intermediate inputs used in manufacturing that have low applied tariffs, and merged tariff lines on certain chemicals, textiles, machinery and transport equipment to “simplify the tariff structure for more efficient customs administration and improve the ease of doing business.”

The Neda board also agreed to reduce tariff rates on certain chemicals used in manufacturing antiseptics and detergents and coal briquettes to improve energy security and lower production costs.

Balisacan said lower tariffs on coal “will help ensure its availability at reasonable prices, thus supporting more stable electricity prices and supply in the country.”

The reduced tariff rates on corn, pork and mechanically deboned meat were also maintained “to ensure stable supply of these commodities, help manage inflation, promote policy stability and investment planning and enhance food security.” —with a report from Mariedel Irish U. Catilogo