Students may apply to study part-time after successful completion of first year
For more information about tuition fees and entry requirements, see the fees and funding and assessing your application sections.
Minimum entry requirements for mres/phd international development.
Taught master’s degree with 65 or above overall and in the dissertation element, or the equivalent.
Competition for places at the School is high. This means that even if you meet our minimum entry requirement, this does not guarantee you an offer of admission.
If you have studied or are studying outside of the UK then have a look at our Information for International Students to find out the entry requirements that apply to you.
Highly recommended but not compulsory.
Find out more about GRE/GMAT
We welcome applications for research programmes that complement the academic interests of members of staff at the School, and we recommend that you investigate staff research interests before applying.
We carefully consider each application on an individual basis, taking into account all the information presented on your application form, including your:
- academic achievement (including existing and pending qualifications) - statement of academic purpose - references - CV - GMAT/GRE - outline research proposal - sample of written work.
See further information on supporting documents
Your research proposal for the MRes/PhD International Development should be approximately 1500 - 2000 words. It should have a descriptive title to enable us to identify the broad theme of the project. You will also be prompted to complete the box for programme specific information, when filling out the online application form. You must include the following under programme specific information:
-the title of your research proposal -a short summary of your research proposal -the name of your proposed supervisor(s) in the department. (Please note: this does not mean you need to have made contact with supervisors or obtained their approval in advance, it simply helps us when assessing your application).
If any of this information is missing or incomplete, it may delay consideration of your application.
You may also have to provide evidence of your English proficiency. You do not need to provide this at the time of your application to LSE, but we recommend that you do. See our English language requirements .
The application deadline for this programme is 15 January 2024 . However, to be considered for any LSE funding opportunity, you must have submitted your application and all supporting documents by the funding deadline. See the fees and funding section for more details.
Every research student is charged a fee in line with the fee structure for their programme. The fee covers registration and examination fees payable to the School, lectures, classes and individual supervision, lectures given at other colleges under intercollegiate arrangements and, under current arrangements, membership of the Students' Union. It does not cover living costs or travel or fieldwork.
Home students: £4,829 for the first year (provisional) Overseas students: £22,632 for the first year
The fee is likely to rise over subsequent years of the programme. The School charges home research students in line with the level of fee that the Research Councils recommend. The fees for overseas students are likely to rise in line with the assumed percentage increase in pay costs (ie, 4 per cent per annum).
The Table of Fees shows the latest tuition amounts for all programmes offered by the School.
The amount of tuition fees you will need to pay, and any financial support you are eligible for, will depend on whether you are classified as a home or overseas student, otherwise known as your fee status. LSE assesses your fee status based on guidelines provided by the Department of Education.
Further information about fee status classification.
The School recognises that the cost of living in London may be higher than in your home town or country, and we provide generous scholarships each year to home and overseas students.
This programme is eligible for LSE PhD Studentships , and Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funding . Selection for the PhD Studentships and ESRC funding is based on receipt of an application for a place – including all ancillary documents, before the funding deadline.
Funding deadline for LSE PhD Studentships and ESRC funding: 15 January 2024
In addition to our needs-based awards, LSE also makes available scholarships for students from specific regions of the world and awards for students studying specific subject areas. Find out more about financial support.
There may be other funding opportunities available through other organisations or governments and we recommend you investigate these options as well.
Fees and funding opportunities
LSE is an international community, with over 140 nationalities represented amongst its student body. We celebrate this diversity through everything we do.
If you are applying to LSE from outside of the UK then take a look at our Information for International students .
1) Take a note of the UK qualifications we require for your programme of interest (found in the ‘Entry requirements’ section of this page).
2) Go to the International Students section of our website.
3) Select your country.
4) Select ‘Graduate entry requirements’ and scroll until you arrive at the information about your local/national qualification. Compare the stated UK entry requirements listed on this page with the local/national entry requirement listed on your country specific page.
Introductory course.
Accepted students who are planning to use advanced quantitative analysis in their PhD research are required to take the summer Introductory Course in Mathematics and Statistics, particularly if you want to take advanced statistical courses.
Introductory Course in Mathematics and Statistics Provides the essential mathematical, statistical, economic and econometric background for the core Economics courses of these programmes.
The MRes programme is the entry point to doctoral research and is designed both to train you in development approaches and perspectives, and to provide significant flexibility to develop advanced methodological and theoretical skills within disciplinary specialisms appropriate to your research interests.
In addition, you will develop any necessary language skills and background knowledge of specific topics related to your research.
(* denotes a half unit)
Development History, Theory and Policy for Research Students* An interdisciplinary course that examines major trends, concepts and perspectives in the history and theory of development.
Research Design and Proposal in International Development You will work with your academic supervisors to structure a doctoral research proposal that has the potential to make a significant contribution to knowledge and that reflects a sophisticated mastery of advanced theoretical and methodological tools from one or more academic disciplines related to international development.
Research Design in International Development This course is designed for engagement with methodological and research design issues in international development research. Sessions are organised around methodological choices and research design (eg. inference, case studies, fieldwork challenges, and ethics), and involve presentation of research projects in the second term.
Methodology courses to the value of one unit
Methodology or theory courses to the value of 0.5 units
Subject to satisfactory performance, you will be upgraded to the PhD programme and will implement your research plan.
For the most up-to-date list of optional courses please visit the relevant School Calendar page.
You must note, however, that while care has been taken to ensure that this information is up to date and correct, a change of circumstances since publication may cause the School to change, suspend or withdraw a course or programme of study, or change the fees that apply to it. The School will always notify the affected parties as early as practicably possible and propose any viable and relevant alternative options. Note that the School will neither be liable for information that after publication becomes inaccurate or irrelevant, nor for changing, suspending or withdrawing a course or programme of study due to events outside of its control, which includes but is not limited to a lack of demand for a course or programme of study, industrial action, fire, flood or other environmental or physical damage to premises.
You must also note that places are limited on some courses and/or subject to specific entry requirements. The School cannot therefore guarantee you a place. Please note that changes to programmes and courses can sometimes occur after you have accepted your offer of a place. These changes are normally made in light of developments in the discipline or path-breaking research, or on the basis of student feedback. Changes can take the form of altered course content, teaching formats or assessment modes. Any such changes are intended to enhance the student learning experience. You should visit the School’s Calendar , or contact the relevant academic department, for information on the availability and/or content of courses and programmes of study. Certain substantive changes will be listed on the updated graduate course and programme information page.
Supervision.
You will be assigned a lead supervisor (and a second supervisor/adviser) who is a specialist in your chosen research field, though not necessarily in your topic. Lead supervisors guide you through your studies.
At the end of the first year you will complete the assessments for your courses and finalise your Research Prospectus, the provisional research plan for your PhD. If you achieve the required marks in your Research Prospectus and other assessments, as outlined in the progression requirements, you will be upgraded to the PhD part of the programme.
Your final award of the PhD will be determined by the completion of an original research thesis and a viva oral examination.
More about progression requirements.
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Top 5 sectors our students work in:
The data was collected as part of the Graduate Outcomes survey, which is administered by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). Graduates from 2020-21 were the fourth group to be asked to respond to Graduate Outcomes. Median salaries are calculated for respondents who are paid in UK pounds sterling and who were working in full-time employment.
Further information on graduate destinations for this programme
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Related programmes, mres/phd political science.
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Find out more about the funding you can apply for to support you in your study
You can find information about fees on the Oxford University Fees and Funding webpages . You will need to ensure you have enough funds to cover your fees and expenses for the whole period of study; MPhil and doctoral students will possibly need to allow for fieldwork expenses where the thesis topic requires it and where fieldwork is approved. Unfortunately, opportunities to raise funding through teaching or research assistantships are not available within the department. All our courses are full time and have a heavy workload, so you will be only be able to take on up to a maximum of eight hours per week of paid employment during term time.
Information about your fee status, including for applicants from the EU, EEA and Switzerland, can be found on the University website .
Below is a list of a few of the awards that are available for students applying to all or some of our courses. You are advised to explore as many funding opportunities as possible both within and outside the University.
The January deadline is the last deadline for anyone applying for a course at this department. You should ensure that your course application has been submitted together with all required supporting materials before this deadline in order to be considered for admission and also for University and college scholarships .
For two-thirds of Oxford scholarships, nothing more than the standard course application, made in time for the January deadline, is usually required. If you fulfil the eligibility criteria, you will automatically be considered. There are some scholarships for which you need specifically to apply, and they may use different deadlines. Check the deadlines and other instructions through the Fees, Funding and Scholarship Search , where there is a page for each scholarship in the "A-Z of scholarships" section .
English language certificates must be submitted by any applicant whose first language is not English who has not successfully completed a degree course in the UK within the two years prior to the start of the course for which they are applying . For the MSc in Economics for Development, a GRE certificate must be submitted by all applicants. These items can arrive after the deadline.
We offer a number of full scholarships (covering course fees, plus an amount towards living costs), which are available to students on our courses
The criteria for selection will normally be outstanding academic ability and citizenship of (and normal residence in) a developing country as defined by the United Nations, with a preference for candidates from Sub-Saharan Africa. Continuation of scholarships in the case of multi-year courses (MPhil and DPhil) will be conditional upon a high standard of academic performance.
No separate application is required. All eligible candidates who are offered a place on the course will be considered.
These scholarships are available to applicants who are ordinarily resident in the United Kingdom, who are of Black or Mixed-Black ethnicity and who hold an offer for any of our degrees.
To apply, all you have to do is submit your completed graduate course application, including ethnicity information, by the January deadline and you will automatically be considered. No separate application is required.
Each scholarship covers course fees and a grant for living costs. Further information is available here .
Clarendon Scholarships are awarded to academically excellent students with the best proven and future potential. They cover course fees in full, along with a generous grant for living expenses.
Find out more .
The Commonwealth Scholarship Commission in the UK (CSC) awards over 800 scholarships and fellowships for postgraduate study and professional development to Commonwealth citizens each year.
Commonwealth Shared Scholarship
Applicants for the MSc in Economics for Development only who are from least developed and lower middle income Commonwealth countries and who complete a separate application form available from the Commonwealth Shared Scholarships website . Only those who submit the application by 4pm (GMT) on 14 December 2023 can be considered for the Commonwealth Shared scholarship.
These scholarships from the European Central Bank (ECB) offer grants of €10,000 to women who are EU citizens who are planning to enrol on a master’s in economics at a university or business school in Europe.
The Economics Department provides funding of up to £20,000 to be allocated to any successful candidate offered a place on the MSc in Economics for Development. The funding is open to any candidate for the course, irrespective of nationality or background; all applications will be considered on merit only. In the event of multiple strong candidates applying, some with partial funding from other sources, the department will share the award between more than one candidate. No separate application is required. All eligible candidates who are offered a place on the course will be considered. Successful candidates will be notified by the second half of May.
The ESRC is the UK’s largest organisation for funding research on social and economic issues. The University, in collaboration with Brunel University and the Open University, hosts the Grand Union Doctoral Training Partnership – one of 14 Doctoral Training Partnerships accredited by the ESRC as part of a Doctoral Training Network.
In order to be considered for a Grand Union DTP ESRC studentship, you must select ‘ ESRC Grand Union DTP Studentships in Social Sciences ’ in the University of Oxford scholarships section of the University's graduate application form. You must also complete a Grand Union DTP Application Form and upload it, together with your graduate application form, by the relevant January deadline for your course.
Information about ESRC studentships at Oxford can be found on the Grand Union DTP website . Please ensure you have read all of the guidance available on the website before completing the Grand Union DTP Application Form . Questions can be directed to the Grand Union DTP Office .
Please note that the studentships are not intended for taught master’s degrees on their own – all applicants should envisage continuing with a doctorate.
In all cases, you must apply for the studentship at the same time as you apply for your degree , and if there are several application deadlines, you should apply no later than the January deadline .
Most of the information you will need about these studentships, for example whether you are eligible and how to apply, can be found on the DTP website . Questions can be directed to the Grand Union DTP Office .
For those applying for a studentship through the Migration Pathway , applicants must also email [email protected] after they have applied to flag up that they wish to be considered for a studentship.
The Felix Scholarship enables outstanding students from India to pursue graduate studies in any subject. It covers 100 per cent of University and college fees, a grant for living costs and one return flight from India to the UK.
The Rotary Foundation offers scholarships for graduates and professionals to study peace and conflict resolution. Find out more from their website . Individual Rotary Clubs offer scholarships for graduate study – check with your local Club.
This scholarship is for an applicant who is a Kenyan citizen to study for a one-year Master’s degree in the academic year 2024-25 at St Antony’s College. The scholarship will be for a value of up to £40k.
Four fully funded scholarships are available for applicants who are permanent residents of Japan, Chinese mainland or Hong Kong SAR and have completed the majority of their formal education in their country/region of permanent residency. For all those who will commence study on a course offered by St Antony's College in 2024/25 (DPhils, MPhils and MSc are all eligible).
Find out more.
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Kasey Chatterji-Len and Anna Kovner
Becoming a PhD economist can provide a fulfilling and financially secure career path. However, getting started in the field can be daunting if you don’t know much about the preparation you’ll need and the available job opportunities. If you’re wondering what it means to be an economics researcher or how to become one, please read on. We’ll review how to prepare for a career in economics research, what an economics PhD program entails, and what types of opportunities it might bring. Economic education is a core component of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s mission to serve the community. To empower would-be economists, this post provides information for students who seek a career in economics research. We hope this information will be helpful to students interested in economics, regardless of their background and economic situation. This information is most applicable to students applying to programs in the United States.
Academic disciplines conduct research in different ways, so it’s important to have a basic understanding of the types of questions economists ask and how they approach answering them. There are many definitions of economics, but a broadly useful one is the study of how people, organizations, and governments make decisions under different constraints, and how those decisions may affect their outcomes.
When answering these questions, economists seek to ground their analyses in models and to be quantitatively precise about the effects they assign to any given cause. The range of topics economists can study is wide, but the accepted approaches to answering questions are stricter. Some examples of what economists might ask:
There are many different subfields within economics, including, but not limited to behavioral, econometrics, energy/environmental, development, financial, international, monetary, public, and urban economics. You can familiarize yourself with the latest work in economics by subscribing to working paper series, such as NBER’s New This Week or the New York Fed’s Staff Reports . To get an idea of the breadth of questions economists can answer, you could listen to Stephen Dubner’s “ Freakonomics Radio ” podcast. You may also want to explore the Journal of Economic Perspectives , the New York Fed’s Liberty Street Economics blog, VoxDev , or VoxEU .
Economics PhD programs typically last five to seven years. Unlike masters programs, they are often fully funded with a stipend, though most require students to complete teaching assistant and/or research assistant (RA) work as part of their funding package. In the first two years, students take classes, many of which are mathematically demanding. The rest of the program can include additional classes but is primarily devoted to original research with the aim of producing publishable papers that will constitute the dissertation.
Faculty advisors are a central part of PhD programs, as students look to them for guidance during the research process. Economics PhD programs are offered within university economics departments, but there are similar programs in public policy and business schools. You can look at their websites to understand any differences in coursework and subsequent job placements.
Upon graduation, students can obtain jobs in a variety of industries. Many PhD students hope to become university professors. Governments and public policy-related institutions such as the Federal Reserve System, the U.S. federal government, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also hire economists to work on policy, lead programs, and conduct research. Finally, economics PhD graduates can also find employment at a variety of private sector companies, including banks, economic consulting firms, and big tech companies. The pay for these different positions can vary. According to the American Economics Association (AEA), the average starting salary for economics assistant professors in 2022-23 was approximately $140,000 at PhD granting institutions and $98,000 at BA granting institutions.
Programs often publish the placements of their PhD graduates, so you can look online to see specific employment outcomes. See, for example, the University of Maryland’s placements . Ultimately, economists are highly regarded as authorities on a variety of topics. Governments, nonprofits, philanthropic foundations, financial institutions, and non-financial businesses all look to economists to answer important questions about how to best achieve their goals. Thus, earning an economics Ph.D. can potentially help you to influence issues that are important to you.
There are several components to an economics PhD program application: college transcripts, GRE scores, letters of recommendation, and personal statements. Please download the Appendix linked below to learn more about transcripts and letters of recommendation. The Appendix details ways in which you can select coursework, obtain research experience, and develop relationships to position yourself for success as a PhD applicant.
If you feel that you are too far along in your academic career to take enough of the classes described in the Appendix, this does not necessarily preclude you from pursuing an economics PhD. For example, it’s possible to take some of these classes through a master’s program, or through a pre-doctoral RA job. Some pre-doctoral RA jobs, such as the one here at the New York Fed , may enable you to take classes in preparation for graduate school. If you are concerned about your transcript, reach out to an economist at your university for advice; program standards for coursework and grades vary, and it’s a good idea to get more personalized advice.
If you’re interested in becoming an economics researcher and applying to PhD programs, it’s best to get research experience as soon as possible. Working as an RA is a great way to learn how to conduct research and get a better idea of whether it’s the right career path for you. Additionally, it can help you obtain a letter of recommendation for graduate school applications and improve your qualifications.
All types of academic research can be enriching, but it’s beneficial to gain experience working directly with an economist. To find a position, you can reach out to professors whose work you find interesting or find an RA program at your school. Typical RA tasks may involve data collection and cleaning, as well as running analyses and creating charts to represent results. This is where coding skills become crucial; having taken math, statistics, and econometrics courses will also enable you to take on more responsibilities.
You may also have the opportunity to conduct your own research, possibly under the supervision of a professor at your university. This research could be self-initiated or part of a course such as a thesis workshop. Self-directed research is a great opportunity to learn about all stages of the research process. It’s also an excellent opportunity to create a writing sample for graduate school applications. Ultimately, though, your motivation for conducting your own research project should be that you want to answer a question. One thing economists have in common is a love of answering questions using data and theory.
Research experience is also often obtained after completing an undergraduate or master’s degree. Taking on a full-time RA position before applying to PhD programs is very common and can make you a more competitive applicant. You may either get an RA job working for a professor or participate in a pre-doctoral RA program.
Research assistant programs are more structured than positions with individual professors or projects, which could be helpful. Universities, parts of the government, think tanks, research organizations, and the Federal Reserve System are all good places to look for research assistant programs. To help you decide which opportunities are most desirable, you may want to ask potential employers : Where do people in this program tend to go afterward? Will I be working directly with an economist? How much of my time will be spent on academic research work? Will I be able to take classes as part of this program? Considering whether an economist will be able to evaluate your performance is an important factor for recommendation letters. The ability to take classes, either through tuition reimbursement or waivers, can also be an important benefit.
The Research Analyst program here at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is one example of these programs and you should check it out here . The Federal Reserve Board of Governors also has a large program, and many other regional Federal Reserve Banks have similar programs. In addition, the PREDOC website and the NBER post listings of RA opportunities. J-PAL and IPA also tend to recruit RAs for economic development projects. Another source of RA opportunities is the @econ_ra account on X.
A PhD may not be for everyone, but it is for anyone—people of all genders, religions, ethnicities, races, and national origins have PhDs in economics. Many economists majored in economics, but others majored in math, physics, or chemistry. Because economics is such an integral part of policymaking, it is important that economists come from a wide range of backgrounds so policy can be stronger and more effective. The inclusion of differing perspectives helps ensure that the contribution of economists to work in public policy, academia, and beyond effectively serves the broadest range of society.
Kasey Chatterji-Len is a research analyst in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.
Anna Kovner is the director of Financial Stability Policy Research in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.
How to cite this post: Kasey Chatterji-Len and Anna Kovner, “Thinking of Pursuing a PhD in Economics? Info on Graduate School and Beyond,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics , May 31, 2024, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/thinking-of-pursuing-a-phd-in-economics-info-on-graduate-school-and-beyond/.
You may also be interested in: AEA: Resources for Students
PREDOC: Guidance for Undergraduates
RA Positions-Not at the NBER
Disclaimer The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).
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Los Angeles (June 6, 2024) — Analysis by UCLA Anderson Forecast suggests the slowing of the economy does not portend a national recession, despite three months of subtrend growth in the first quarter of 2024 — following six solid months of growth that exceeded the 2.5% average growth of recent years — and two more quarters of subtrend growth forecasted for the summer and fall of 2024.
In California, the forces driving the state’s robust economy remain in place. These forces saw the state grow at a 3.7% compound annual rate in 2023, faster than all but three large states: Washington, Florida and Texas (though on a per capita basis, California grew marginally slower than Texas and faster than any of the other large states). However, in 2024, the continued slowing of the national economy will affect the state’s economy. Specific sectoral weaknesses in California, as evidenced by its high unemployment rate, will contribute to 2024’s being an atypical year of slower-than-U.S. growth for the state. The following two years, though, will be characterized by more typical, higher-than-U.S. economic growth.
The national forecast
In the U.S. forecast report, UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg outlines two ways that slower economic growth might occur. The first is a contraction in demand, the type of slow growth that typically results in press reports detailing “a sharp slowdown in GDP growth” or a jobs report that “shows looser labor markets.” These reports make it sound as if the economy is on the brink of a recession. But there is another scenario that leads to slow growth. That occurs when demand is sufficiently strong for more rapid growth, but supply constraints are inhibiting economic growth. These can take the form of tight labor markets or a lack of physical productive capacity. At present, these latter conditions are slowing the economy and are also consistent with persistently high interest rates.
In circumstances where labor markets are loose, companies adjust their workforce to account for changes in demand, and such adjustments result in an elevation of the layoff rate. But the layoff rate is at historically low levels and it is not increasing. If firms were hoarding labor after the immediate, post-pandemic labor shortage, then the redundant labor would lead to a decrease in worker productivity. But in 2023, productivity increased by 2.9%, led by non-manufacturing business.
Faced with sufficient demand and a shortage of labor, firms are attempting to increase output with additional capital, as evidenced by record durable goods orders, increased manufacturing backlogs and the rush to build new factories. Petroleum extraction that provides fuel for economic growth, which declined because of weather events in the early part of the year, has now come back to 13 million barrels per day.
The June Forecast report is not dissimilar to the report presented in March. The forecast for the second and third quarters of 2024 are somewhat stronger, while the fourth quarter of the year is predicted to be weaker than believed three months ago, owing to the aforementioned capacity constraints. In this U.S. presidential election year, Congress has been passing bipartisan funding bills, and warning bells from Washington have been silenced for the time being. The forecast expects that the labor market constraints will ease in 2025 because of higher immigration rates coupled with higher wages, which in turn will induce higher labor force participation rates among prime working-age adults. Construction of new factories and current industrial policy should also ease production constraints in 2025 and 2026, contributing to slightly above-trend growth in the forecast.
The oft predicted but never seen “recession next quarter” alarm bells have been silenced in the face of expansionary fiscal policy, new national industrial policy and robust consumer spending. Inflation is slowly finding new equilibrium in the 2.2% to 2.7% per annum range, kept higher by residential rents, automobile repair and higher health insurance premiums, and the Forecast expects the Federal Reserve to take a neutral stance, while economic growth rebounds to trend rates.
There are risks to the forecast. A protracted shutdown of government has been averted, but the possibility still exists. Geopolitical events might upset the current growth pattern. An important risk of the forecast would be a radically different economic policy after the November elections. The election results might usher in different national economic policy in 2025. These risks are substantial and bear watching, as they could well drive the economy off the current growth path that is predicted to return the U.S. economy to trend growth of 2.5%. Because of those uncertainties, the forecast predicts weaker business investment in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, corresponding to a wait-and-see approach by some firms until after the November election. The upside of the forecast is productivity growth based on new technology that drives higher wages and higher GDP. The economists’ view of AI and robotics is that the impact will be felt after 2026, as technology adoption tends to take time; current tight labor markets could accelerate that timeline.
The California Forecast
In California, the housing market manifests some uncommon conditions. In theory, persistently higher mortgage rates should lower housing prices, but the absence of inventory and pent-up demand by households has resulted in a seasonally adjusted increase in median home prices by 1.6% from the peak in May 2022. Home prices, as measured by the S&P Case Shiller Index, have been climbing since February of 2023 in San Diego by 11.4%, in Los Angeles by 8.7% and by 5.2% in San Francisco. With existing home sales at depression levels, builders should be responding with new developments, but a very wet winter has resulted in no significant growth in building permits. On the plus side, the most recent Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey reported that 32% of the panelists in Northern California and 55% in Southern California would begin one or more new multi-family projects this year. The slow start to new home construction has been factored into the forecast, with weaker housing in 2024 and a resurgence in 2025.
For the past year, the Forecast has documented the slowdown in goods moving through the seaports and airports of California, the data suggesting a bottoming out. The downturn in imported goods movement at the state’s three major seaports reversed between March and June 2024. Some of the prior sharp turndown occurred when trans-Pac shipping diverted to East Coast ports as a way for shippers to mitigate risk while unsettled labor issues at West Coast ports worked themselves out. But with new labor contracts in place, the risk has abated, while global weather conditions have slowed shipping through the Panama Canal into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the Forecast predicts an increase of goods passing through California ports in the coming year.
The three-year forecast for California, once again, is for the state to grow faster than the U.S. — but not by much after 2024. The risks to the forecast are political and geopolitical; potentially, interest rates might still disrupt the current expansion on the downside and increased international immigration and accelerated onshoring of technical manufacturing on the upside.
The unemployment rate for the second quarter of this year is expected to average 5.2%, and the averages for 2024, 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 5.1%, 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively. The forecast for 2024, 2025 and 2026 is for total employment growth rates to be –0.3%, 2.3% and 2.8%.
In spite of the higher interest rates, the continued demand for a limited housing stock, coupled with state policies inducing new home building, should result in the beginning of a recovery in 2024, followed by solid growth in new home production thereafter. The expectation is for 110,000 net new units to be permitted in 2024 and permitted new units to grow to 152,000 by the end of 2026. Needless to say, this level of home building means that the prospect for the private sector building out of the housing affordability problem over the next three years is nil.
About UCLA Anderson Forecast
UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state’s rebound since 1993. The Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to call the recession of 2001 and, in March 2020, it was the first to declare that the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had already begun.
uclaforecast.com
About UCLA Anderson School of Management
UCLA Anderson School of Management is among the leading business schools in the world, with faculty members globally renowned for their teaching excellence and research in advancing management thinking. Located in Los Angeles, gateway to the growing economies of Latin America and Asia and a city that personifies innovation in a diverse range of endeavors, UCLA Anderson’s MBA, Fully Employed MBA, Executive MBA, UCLA-NUS Executive MBA, Master of Financial Engineering, Master of Science in Business Analytics, doctoral and executive education programs embody the school’s Think in the Next ethos. Annually, some 1,800 students are trained to be global leaders seeking the business models and community solutions of tomorrow.
anderson.ucla.edu
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A protracted shutdown of government has been averted, but the possibility still exists. Geopolitical events might upset the current growth pattern. An important risk of the forecast would be a radically different economic policy after the November elections. The election results might usher in different national economic policy in 2025.
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