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The current market landscape, characterized by stickier inflation, higher rates, and increased equity concentration, has become the new “normal,” in our view. Although the higher-for longer rate environment is unique relative to recent years, the spike in the 10-Year US Treasury has pushed the yield in line with the 250-year average of 4.6%. As structural uncertainties play out, we maintain our view to remain balanced across asset classes as dynamics inevitably shift.

Source: Bank of England, GS GIR and GS Asset Management as of 12/31/2023.

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The goldman sachs group, inc. (gs).

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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a financial institution, provides a range of financial services for corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals worldwide. It operates through Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions segments. The Global Banking & Markets segment provides financial advisory services, including strategic advisory assignments related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense activities, restructurings, and spin-offs; and relationship lending, and acquisition financing, as well as secured lending, through structured credit and asset-backed lending and involved in financing under securities to resale agreements. This segment also offers client execution activities for cash and derivative instruments; credit and interest rate products; and provision of mortgages, currencies, commodities, and equities related products, as well as underwriting services. The Asset & Wealth Management segment manages assets across various classes, including equity, fixed income, hedge funds, credit funds, private equity, real estate, currencies, and commodities; and provides customized investment advisory solutions, wealth advisory services, personalized financial planning, and private banking services, as well as invests in corporate equity, credit, real estate, and infrastructure assets. The Platform Solutions segment offers credit cards and point-of-sale financing for purchase of goods or services. This segment also provides cash management services, such as deposit-taking and payment solutions for corporate and institutional clients. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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Private credit has piqued the interest of major banks such as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC), with these financial institutions raising approximately $50 billion in private credit investments, according to a Bloomberg report. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman breaks down the private credit trend. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Asking for a Trend. This post was written by Angel Smith

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GS Macro Outlook 2022: The Long Road to Higher Rates

Global economic forecasts.

Although the fastest pace of recovery now lies behind us, we expect strong global growth in coming quarters, thanks to continued medical improvements, a consumption boost from pent-up saving, and inventory rebuilding. For 2022 as a whole, global GDP is likely to rise 4½%, more than 1pp above potential.

The major DM economies should grow rapidly through midyear and then moderate gradually as the near-term impulses wane. In EM, we expect comparatively sluggish performance in China, where the property market is likely to soften further and macro policy looks set to ease only modestly, and in Brazil, where financial conditions have tightened sharply and a potentially messy election looms. By contrast, we are more optimistic on India because of significant catch-up potential and on Russia because of a boost from the oil and gas sector.

The biggest surprise of 2021 has been the goods-led inflation surge. This recently prompted us to pull forward our forecast for Fed liftoff by a full year to July 2022. Subsequently, we expect a funds rate hike every six months, a relatively gradual pace that assumes a normalization in goods prices and in overall inflation (albeit later and more partial than we previously thought).

By the time Fed hikes get underway, some advanced economies (including the UK and Canada) should be well into the interest rate normalization process, and a number of economies in Latin America and Eastern Europe may already be approaching its end. By contrast, we think the ECB and RBA are still far away from hiking rates, and markets seem to have overshot in their expectation of an imminent hawkish turn.

Beyond the next few years, we expect nominal policy rates across most DM economies to rise well beyond the rock-bottom levels now priced in the bond market. For one thing, inflation should settle ½pp above the pre-pandemic level on average, in part because central banks have tweaked their goals accordingly. Moreover, neutral real rates are more likely to rise than to fall, given increased political tolerance for budget deficits and climate-related investment needs.

Global growth in 2021 has broadly matched our above-consensus 6% prediction of a year ago, as illustrated in Exhibit 1. In particular, the US, UK, Brazil, and Russia all came in well ahead of consensus forecasts. And even in the Euro area, where annual-average growth looks to be on track for a consensus outcome, the back-loaded sequential pattern means that the economy made up a lot of ground through the year.

Exhibit 1 : Global Growth in 2021 Matched Our Lofty Expectations

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

By contrast, we did not anticipate the 2021 inflation surge. While we had built a positive base effect from the exceptionally weak prints during the initial 2020 lockdown and some upward pressure on prices in reopening service sectors into our forecast, we missed the two most important inflation sources, namely the excess demand for durable goods and the labor supply squeeze. Since we now expect both of these inflation drivers to abate only gradually and partially, we have pulled forward our policy rate liftoff projections across most major economies, including the US where we are now calling for the first funds rate hike in July 2022.

Another Strong Year Coming

Although the fastest pace of the recovery now lies behind us, global GDP is likely to grow 4½% in 2022 for the year as a whole, more than 1pp above potential (Exhibit 2). Especially in the advanced economies—with the exception of the Euro area where Q3 was very strong—we expect a significant near-term acceleration that should extend well into 2022 (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 2 : Another Strong Year Coming in 2022

Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3 : The Major Advanced Economies Should Grow Strongly Through Midyear and Then Moderate Gradually

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

The most important reason for optimism is that we expect further sizable medical improvements, illustrated in Exhibit 4. Although the virus will continue to ebb and flow, increasing global access to vaccinations, booster shots, and other medical improvements should result in lower highs and lower lows on infections and, especially, on hospitalizations and deaths. From now until the end of 2022, we expect a 15pp increase in the GDP-weighted global protection rate against infections and hospitalizations to 70% and 85%, respectively. [ 1 ] Moreover, the new antiviral drugs from Pfizer and Merck—if approved and broadly distributed—should cut the risk of severe outcomes sharply further. [ 2 ] In turn, these medical improvements are likely to support further recovery in sectors such as travel, entertainment, and office-adjacent consumption.

Exhibit 4 : Further Medical Improvements

We calculate effective protection rates as the population share with some immunity from vaccination or prior infection, multiplied by the strength of the protection against each outcome. See \"Dan Milo, Daan Struyven, \"How Immune is the World?\", Global Economics Comment, 24 September 2021.

In recent months, we have also become more optimistic about the impact of fiscal policy on growth. This is straightforward in the Euro area, where the likely German center-left coalition looks set to spend more and the EU Recovery Fund will start funding investment projects in greater size next year. [ 3 ] But even in the US, the outlook is better than suggested by standard measures of the fiscal impulse. [ 4 ] The fact that the US personal saving rate remains at 7.5% as of September—a month with strong consumption and mostly without extended unemployment benefits—suggests that consumers have already largely absorbed the loss of government support without either a meaningful cutback in spending or an undue decline in the saving rate. Moreover, it suggests that the consumption boost from the $2.4trn stock in US pent-up savings is still ahead of us, at least in aggregate. Combined with the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill on November 5—which we had assumed but which had been held up in intra-party Democratic wrangling—this has made us less concerned about a large negative US fiscal impulse than we were a few months ago.

Growth trends in the major emerging economies are likely to look more disparate, with relative weakness—both relative to consensus and to the long-term trend—in China and Brazil, but strong performance in India and Russia.

Our forecast of 4.8% growth in China next year is below consensus. The key driver of this muted outlook is a negative swing in the property sector growth impulse from an average of +1½pp in the last five pre-pandemic years to just above -1pp in 2022 and beyond. This reflects the negative impact of deleveraging on construction, consumption, government spending, real estate services, and construction materials activity (Exhibit 5, left panel).

Exhibit 5 : A Large Negative Swing in China's Property Sector Impact on Growth

Source: Haver Analytics, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

In past cycles, Chinese policymakers would have reacted to such a slowdown via aggressive macro stimulus, but the policy reaction function appears to be changing. We expect policymakers to stem major downside risks, but with an intent to “do just enough”—implying a broadly stable policy rate and an increase in the annual augmented fiscal deficit by only 1pp next year. Policymakers appear to put a growing weight on objectives other than near-term GDP growth, including income distribution, financial stability, and decarbonization. Combined with the demographic headwinds [ 5 ] , this shift lies behind our forecast of a large, but gradual and managed slowdown in trend GDP growth to around 3¼% by 2032.

Brazil is likely to underperform as well, with growth of just 0.8% in 2022, but the reasons are more short-term. Exhibit 6 shows that financial conditions have tightened very sharply, as the central bank has reacted to the large inflation overshoot with a series of dramatic rate hikes and as worries about governability have increased ahead of a potentially messy election next fall.

Exhibit 6 : Sharp FCI Tightening in Brazil; Room for Catch-Up Growth in India

We are considerably more optimistic on India and Russia. We expect India growth to pick up from 8% in 2021 to 9.1% in 2022 given its significant catch-up potential following the hit from the Delta wave (Exhibit 6, right panel). In Russia, oil production is likely to rise back to pre-covid levels as the OPEC caps are removed, and the increase in prices has led to an improvement in the terms of trade to multi-year highs.

Higher Inflation, Earlier Liftoff

The biggest surprise of 2021 has been the global inflation surge, visible not only in EM economies that have a history of these bouts but also in the G10 (see Exhibit 7).

Exhibit 7 : Inflation Has Been Much Higher Than Expected in Most G10 Economies

Core inflation is PCE ex food and energy in the US; HICP ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco in the Euro area; CPI ex freshfood in Japan; CPI ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco in the UK; the average of common, median and trimmed mean inflation (BoC preferred) in Canada; trimmed mean (30%) in Australia; CPI ex food, energy and fuel in New Zealand; CPI adjusted for tax changes and ex energy products in Norway; CPI with fixed interest rate ex energy in Sweden; CPI ex fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel in Switzerland.

Higher-than-expected US inflation recently prompted us to pull forward our forecast for Fed liftoff by a full year to July 2022. We now expect core PCE inflation to remain above 3%—and core CPI inflation above 4%—when the QE taper concludes, which would make a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes the path of least resistance. After liftoff, we see a second hike in November 2022 and two hikes per year after that.

The key to this gradual pace is a partial moderation in goods prices and in overall inflation, driven by a combination of slowing demand and rising supply. On the demand side, we expect spending on goods to moderate as US government income support normalizes and service activity rebounds. Although US real goods consumption remains nearly 10% above trend, this already represents a decline of 5% since the peak in March when households received stimulus checks, and the adjustment likely has further to go (Exhibit 8).

Exhibit 8 : Moderating US Goods Demand Should Lower US Goods Inflation

Trend is estimated using observations from 2012Q1 till 2019Q4. Both bubble sizes and regression weights are proportional to GDP.

Source: OECD, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

On the supply side, we are particularly focused on a rebound in semiconductor production (and therefore cars) because of post-Delta factory restarts in South East Asia (2021Q4), and eventually by expanded production capacity (2022H2 and 2023). [ 6 ] Both increased protection against infections and less stringent policies in Asia should reduce the threat to supply chains from renewed plant and port shutdowns (Exhibit 9). Besides, we expect a partial normalization of labor supply on the back of reduced covid concerns and reduced benefits, especially in the US where the participation rate remains well below its longer-term trend. [ 7 ]

Exhibit 9 : Diminishing Risk of New Covid-Driven Shocks From Asia to Global Goods Supply

We classify the quarterly risk of factory/port closures for each economy based on i) stringency of government policy (to gauge the risk of government imposed closures) and ii) the level of protection against infections (to gauge the risk of closures caused by worker illness). For economies and quarters where we believe factories/ports will be closed by policy if there are high cases in the locality, we classify them as having a high risk of closure if their infection protection rate is less than 75% and a medium risk otherwise. For economies and quarters where some factories/ports may be closed by policy (perhaps region dependent) if there are high cases in the locality, we classify them as having a high risk of closure if their infection protection rate is less than 65% and a medium risk otherwise. For economies and quarters where factories/ports would not close just because there are high cases in the locality, we classify them as having a high risk of closure if their infection protection rate is less than 35%, a medium risk if it is in between 35% and 55%, and low risk otherwise.

Central Bank Leaders and Laggards

By the time Fed hikes get underway, several DM central banks should already be well into the normalization process, with rate increases from the pandemic low of 150bp in New Zealand, 75bp in Canada, and 40bp in the UK. We expect the BoC to hike four times in 2022 starting with liftoff in January given its limited tolerance for very high inflation and an impressive jobs recovery. Although the BoE’s hold in November was a surprise, major bottlenecks and high inflation are likely to prompt a 15bp first rate hike soon (most likely in December), followed by 25bp hikes in May and November 2022.

The normalization process is already much more advanced in several Latin America and Eastern Europe economies, where inflation has been very high. In Brazil, we expect another 150bp hike to 9.25% in December and a terminal rate of 11.0% in 2022Q1, followed by cuts in 2023. In Russia, we expect a final 25bp rate hike in December, with rate cuts starting in 2022H2.

Exhibit 10 : Early Normalization in the UK, Canada, Norway, and New Zealand; An Earlier End to Normalization in Brazil and Russia

By contrast, some DM central banks are likely to be far behind the Fed in lifting rates. In particular, we think markets have overshot significantly in their expectation of an imminent hawkish turn at the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. We expect the policy rate to stay on hold until 2024Q3 in the Euro area and until 2023Q4 in Australia (Exhibit 11, left panel).

Exhibit 11 : ECB and RBA Liftoff Is Further Away Than Markets Expect

The main reason for our dovish ECB and RBA calls is that underlying wage and inflation pressures are more muted than elsewhere. Our wage trackers are still soft in both the Euro area, where significant long-run excess capacity remains [ 8 ] , and in Australia, where the RBA wants wage growth of at least 3% before lifting off (Exhibit 12). We expect Euro area core inflation to peak right around now, fall back to 1.2% in December 2022 as inflationary distortions—such as the German VAT hike and this year's HICP weight changes—drop out, and then rise only gradually to 1.7% as long-run slack is absorbed in late 2024. In Australia, we expect trimmed inflation—the relatively stable measure targeted by the RBA—to rise only gradually, and meet the RBA’s criterion of “being sustainably within the 2% to 3% target range” in 2023.

Exhibit 12 : Softer Wage Growth in the Euro Area and Australia

A Long Way From Nominal Neutral

Beyond the next few years, we expect nominal policy rates across most DM economies to rise well beyond the rock-bottom levels now priced in the bond market, as illustrated in Exhibit 13. Assuming another long expansion, we forecast peak nominal policy rates of around 2¾% in both Canada (reached in 2025) and the US (2026), 2½% in Australia (2026), 1¾% in the UK (2025), and 1¼% in the Euro area (2027).

Exhibit 13 : Policy Rates Likely to Rise By More Than Priced in Markets (Eventually)

There are two reasons to expect higher policy rates than markets are pricing. First, across the G10 economies, we expect inflation to settle ½pp above the pre-pandemic level on average, as shown in Exhibit 14. In the US, our forecast for core PCE inflation in 2024 is 2.2%, 0.6pp above the 2015-2019 average. In the Euro area, we have raised our forecast for core HICP inflation in 2024Q4 to 1.7%, 0.7pp above the 2015-2019 average. In part, these forecasts reflect the recent changes in policy frameworks at the Fed and the ECB. But they also incorporate observable factors that we expect to mostly persist, including tightness in the housing and energy markets, increased measures of long-run inflation expectations, and increased US wage pressure.

Exhibit 14 : G10 Inflation Should Settle ½pp Above the Pre-Pandemic Level on Average

Second, neutral real short-term interest rates (r*) are more likely to rise than to fall over time. Statistically, we have found that in low and stable inflation environments over the postwar period, real policy rates averaged about 1% over the cycle, albeit with a great deal of variability. [ 9 ] The post-Volcker period was an outlier to the high side, while the post-GFC period was an outlier to the low side, as shown in Exhibit 15.

Exhibit 15 : The Real Short-Term Rate Has Averaged Around 1% When Inflation Is Low

More fundamentally, our savings-investment framework suggests that increased political tolerance for budget deficits and the investment needs associated with the climate transition could together boost r* by around 50bp relative to the post-GFC cycle. This estimate relies on our forecast of a 1¼% of global GDP increase in government deficits relative to the pre-pandemic norms, the estimate of a 1¼% of global GDP increase in green investments needed to achieve net zero, and estimates from the academic literature on the effect of government deficits and investment on r* (Exhibit 16).

Exhibit 16 : A Boost to r* From Larger Budget Deficits and Green Investments

For the expansion averages, we include 1992-2000, 2002-2007, and 2012-2019 in the US, and 2005-2007 and 2012-2019 globally.

Source: IREA, IEA, Energy Transition Commission, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

From Pandemic Risks to Inflation Risks

Our baseline forecast is that the global economy gradually transitions from a highly unusual pandemic recovery to a more normal expansion starting in 2022. During this transition, demand slows while supply rises, growth shifts from very rapid to merely solid, activity rebalances from goods (and in China housing) to services, and inflation moderates. Monetary policy shifts from highly accommodative to slightly more normal, although the normalization speed varies greatly by economy.

Despite all this, we are unlikely to revert fully to the pre-pandemic macroeconomy. New monetary policy frameworks, more ambitious fiscal policy, green investments, and healthier household balance sheets all point to stronger aggregate demand for a longer period. Stronger demand, especially for investment, along with the uptick in inflation expectations due to the pandemic inflation shock, suggest that we are on a long road to higher nominal interest rates relative to the post-GFC world.

What is the biggest risk to this generally constructive outlook? Throughout the period since March 2020, the answer would have been a renewed deterioration of the pandemic, especially from new and more transmissible variants. While this may still be the right answer in the near term as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches, it is no longer as clear thereafter given the dramatic recent medical advances, including the experimental oral antivirals from Pfizer and Merck. Admittedly, better treatments could undercut to some degree the incentive to get vaccinated among the hesitant. But the more important factor is probably a reduction in fear among the vast majority of the population that is either already vaccinated or has no desire to get vaccinated under any circumstances, and consequently higher economic activity even when there is an outbreak.

This means that the biggest risk to the global economy may no longer be a renewed downturn because of fresh virus outbreaks, but may now be higher inflation because of tight goods supplies and excessive wage pressure. Although we expect a significant part of the goods supply squeeze to abate over the next year, at present the stress on supply chains is substantial and inventories in semiconductors, durable goods, and energy markets are very low. In such an environment, even a moderate production outage resulting from covid outbreaks in China, an energy demand spike related to a cold winter, or other short-term disruptions could have sizable economic effects.

The wage issue is potentially longer-lasting because it might involve a change in social norms whereby workers—many of whom have a greater financial cushion than in past cycles—demand more from their jobs not only in terms of compensation but also working conditions and personal fulfillment. While many observers might view such a change in the mindset of the workforce as understandable and perhaps even overdue, it could imply a significantly longer and more pronounced period of upward wage pressures—after all, essential roles need to be filled and if there aren't enough people who want to fill them at the prevailing wage, then the prevailing wage needs to rise.

In turn, upside inflation surprises would likely result in a bigger monetary tightening from the world's major central banks, first and foremost the Federal Reserve. This is a downside risk to the growth outlook especially in EM economies, which often prove to be most vulnerable to Fed tightening. At the same time, however, such an outcome would reinforce our most important disagreement with market pricing—namely that policy rates will eventually rise significantly further than suggested by the rock-bottom levels implied in the bond market.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix , or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html .

Disclosure Appendix

We, Jan Hatzius, Daan Struyven, Yulia Zhestkova, Sid Bhushan and Daniel Milo, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm's business or client relationships.

Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.

Disclosures

Regulatory disclosures, disclosures required by united states laws and regulations.

See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a principal in debt securities (or in related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report.

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Earliest, most distant galaxy discovered with James Webb Space Telescope

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The two earliest and most distant galaxies yet confirmed, dating back to only 300 million years after the Big Bang, have been discovered using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), an international team of astronomers today announced.

These galaxies join a small but growing population of galaxies from the first half billion years of cosmic history where we can really probe the stellar populations and the distinctive patterns of chemical elements within them Francesco D’Eugenio

Found in a region near the Hubble Ultra Deep Field by the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES) team, these galaxies mark a major milestone in the study of the early Universe.

“These galaxies join a small but growing population of galaxies from the first half billion years of cosmic history where we can really probe the stellar populations and the distinctive patterns of chemical elements within them,” said Dr Francesco D’Eugenio of the Kavli Institute for Cosmology at the University of Cambridge, one of the team behind the discovery.

Because of the expansion of the Universe, the light from distant galaxies stretches to longer wavelength as it travels, an effect known as redshift. In these galaxies, the effect is extreme, stretching by a factor of 15, and moving even the ultraviolet light of the galaxies to infrared wavelengths where only JWST has the capability to see it.

Modern theory holds that galaxies develop in special regions where gravity has concentrated the cosmic gas and dark matter into dense lumps known as ‘halos’. These halos evolved quickly in the early Universe, rapidly merging into more and more massive collections of matter. This fast development is why astronomers are so eager to find yet earlier galaxies: each small increment moves our eyes to a less developed period, where luminous galaxies are even more distinctive and unusual.

The two newly discovered galaxies have been confirmed spectroscopically. In keeping with the collaboration’s standard naming practice, the galaxies are now known as JADES-GS-z14-0 and JADES-GS-z14-1, the former being the more distant of the two.

In addition to being the new distance record holder, JADES-GS-z14-0 is remarkable for how big and bright it is. JWST measures the galaxy at over 1,600 light-years in diameter. Many of the most luminous galaxies produce the bulk of their light via gas falling into a supermassive black hole, producing a quasar, but at this size JADES-GS-z14-0 cannot be this. Instead, the researchers believe the light is being produced by young stars.

The combination of the high luminosity and the stellar origin makes JADES-GS-z14-0 the most distinctive evidence yet found for the rapid formation of large, massive galaxies in the early Universe. This trend runs counter to the pre-JWST expectations of theories of galaxy formation. Evidence for surprisingly vigorous early galaxies appeared even in the first JWST images and has been mounting in the first two years of the mission.

“JADES-GS-z14-0 now becomes the archetype of this phenomenon,” said Dr Stefano Carniani of the Scuola Normale Superiore in Pisa, lead author on the discovery paper. “It is stunning that the Universe can make such a galaxy in only 300 million years.”

Despite its luminosity, JADES-GS-z14-0 was a puzzle for the JADES team when they first spotted it over a year ago, as it appears close enough on the sky to a foreground galaxy that the team couldn’t be sure that the two weren’t neighbours. But in October 2023, the JADES team conducted even deeper imaging—five full days with the JWST Near-Infrared Camera on just one field—to form the “JADES Origins Field.” With the use of filters designed to better isolate the earliest galaxies, confidence grew that JADES-GS-z14-0 was indeed very distant.

“We just couldn’t see any plausible way to explain this galaxy as being merely a neighbour of the more nearby galaxy,” said Dr Kevin Hainline, research professor at the University of Arizona.

Fortunately, the galaxy happened to fall in a region where the team had conducted ultra-deep imaging with the JWST Mid-Infrared Instrument. The galaxy was bright enough to be detected in 7.7 micron light, with a higher intensity than extrapolation from lower wavelengths would predict.

“We are seeing extra emission from hydrogen and possibly even oxygen atoms, as is common in star-forming galaxies, but here shifted out to an unprecedented wavelength,” said Jakob Helton, graduate student at the University of Arizona and lead author of a second paper on this finding.

These combined imaging results convinced the team to include the galaxy in what was planned to be the capstone observation of JADES, a 75-hour campaign to conduct spectroscopy on faint early galaxies. The spectroscopy confirmed their hopes that JADES-GS-z14-0 was indeed a record-breaking galaxy and that the fainter candidate, JADES-GS-z14-1, was nearly as far away.

Beyond the confirmation of distance, the spectroscopy allows further insight into the properties of the two galaxies. Being comparatively bright, JADES-GS-z14-0 will permit detailed study.

“We could have detected this galaxy even if it were 10 times fainter, which means that we could see other examples yet earlier in the Universe—probably into the first 200 million years,” says Brant Robertson, professor of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of California-Santa Cruz, and lead author of a third paper on the team’s study of the evolution of this early population of galaxies. “The early Universe has so much more to offer.”

Reference Carniani, S et al.  A shining cosmic dawn: spectroscopic confirmation of two luminous galaxies at z∼14. arXiv:2405.18485 [astro-ph.GA]

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Infrared image showing JADES-GS-z14-0 galaxy

Credit: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Brant Robertson (UC Santa Cruz), Ben Johnson (CfA), Sandro Tacchella (Cambridge), Phill Cargile (CfA)

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Goldman sachs issues ‘astonishing’ bitcoin and ethereum etf prediction after price ‘turning point’.

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Bitcoin Bitcoin and ethereum have ridden a Wall Street spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) price rally this year ( that could be about to be blown out of the water by China ).

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The bitcoin price has returned to its previous all-time high, helped on by a surprise "seismic shift" in Washington that's sparked a crypto showdown between president Joe Biden and Republican 2024 candidate Donald Trump .

Now, as traders brace for a "crucial" Federal Reserve flip , Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs is leaning into bitcoin, ethereum and crypto after the "astonishing success" of the bitcoin ETFs.

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Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs is leaning into bitcoin, ethereum and crypto after the spot ETF ... [+] price rally this year.

"The bitcoin ETF obviously has been an astonishing success," Mathew McDermott, Goldman Sachs' global head of digital assets, said on stage at the Coindesk Consensus crypto conference in Austin, Texas, adding the spot bitcoin ETF approval was a "big psychological turning point."

The bitcoin price has rocketed higher this year, adding 60% since the approval of a fleet of spot bitcoin ETFs in January. Last week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) surprised traders when it moved to green light a handful of spot ethereum ETFs.

"This is a natural progression that ethereum will hopefully be approved to be a fully tradable ETF," McDermott said, though downplayed the chances of the spot ethereum ETF opening "the door for everybody else" like solana, XRP XRP and other major cryptocurrencies.

"From my vantage point, our clients typically just focus on bitcoin and ethereum— they're the two products that have tradable futures on the CME. So that's why you can see a positive read [on ethereum ETFs]. In terms of others, I think we could be positive, but I think it's too early to say."

Bitcoin and ethereum ETFs are the first step in what the world's largest asset manager BlackRock BlackRock has said is its plan for the digitization of financial markets.

"That's hugely powerful," McDermott said. "As you get clarity on the regulations, you get more people coming in on the sell side and start showing the viability of the market on-chain. You can then start to build out and tap into these other asset classes where the value proposition probably is great," he added, pointing to real estate and green debt issuance.

McDermott's prediction that traditional financial markets can be digitized through blockchain, bitcoin and crypto has been described as a "$5 trillion market by 2030" opportunity by analysts with Wall Street giant Citi .

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The bitcoin price has surged over the last year, pushed higher by Wall Street's arrival via spot ... [+] bitcoin ETFs and impending ethereum ETFs.

BlackRock has stolen Grayscale's crown as issuer of the world's largest bitcoin fund after its new IBIT spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) topped $20 billion, it was reported by Bloomberg , dethroning the $19.6 billion Grayscale bitcoin trust (GBTC).

There's a lot of race left to run, however, with Bernstein analysts estimating in a report seen by Coindesk that the bitcoin and new ethereum spot ETFs could grow to a $450 billion market.

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Verizon Communications (VZ) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider

Verizon Communications ( VZ Quick Quote VZ - Free Report ) closed the most recent trading day at $41.56, moving +1.42% from the previous trading session. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.15%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.36%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.17%.

Shares of the largest U.S. cellphone carrier have appreciated by 4.2% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 5.13% and outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.2%.

The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Verizon Communications in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on July 22, 2024. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $1.16, marking a 4.13% fall compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $33.06 billion, up 1.44% from the year-ago period.

For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $4.60 per share and a revenue of $135.03 billion, signifying shifts of -2.34% and +0.79%, respectively, from the last year.

It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Verizon Communications. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the company's business and profitability.

Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.02% upward. As of now, Verizon Communications holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

In terms of valuation, Verizon Communications is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.92. This represents a discount compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 19.18.

It is also worth noting that VZ currently has a PEG ratio of 2.97. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Wireless National industry had an average PEG ratio of 2.97.

The Wireless National industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 186, positioning it in the bottom 27% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

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Q&A: These researchers examined 20 years of data on same-sex marriage. Here’s what they found

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Twenty years ago this month, Marcia Kadish and Tanya McCloskey exchanged wedding vows at Cambridge City Hall in Massachusetts and became the first same-sex couple to legally marry in the United States .

The couple had been together since 1986, but their decision to wed was radical for its time. In 2004, only 31% of Americans supported same-sex marriage, while 60% were opposed , according to a Pew Research Center poll.

Much of that opposition was fueled by fears that expanding the definition of marriage beyond the traditional union of a man and a women would undermine the institution and be destabilizing to families. Researchers at the Rand Corp. decided to find out if those predictions turned out to be true.

A team from the Santa Monica-based think tank spent a year poring over the data. The result is a 186-page report that should be reassuring to supporters of marriage equality.

“If there were negative consequences in the last 20 years of the decision to legalize marriage for same-sex couples, no one has yet been able to measure them,” said Benjamin Karney , an adjunct behavioral scientist at Rand.

Karney, who is also a social psychologist at UCLA, led the report with Melanie Zaber , a labor economist and economic demographer at Rand. They spoke with The Times about what they learned.

Does marriage make people better off?

Benjamin Karney: On average, yes. People who are married experience fewer health problems , they live years longer , they make more money , and they accumulate more wealth than people who marry and divorce or who don’t marry at all. People who are married also experience more stable and positive psychological health , and they have sex more frequently than people who are not married.

All those benefits accrue primarily to people who are in happy marriages. Unhappy marriage is very, very harmful. But most people who are married are happy — that’s why they stay married.

What prompted you to examine same-sex marriage now?

BK: At the time that these policies were changing, there were a lot of arguments on both sides about whether the consequences would be positive or negative. Twenty years is a long time, and during that time, a lot of research has been conducted. It seemed like a good time to ask the question: What did happen as a consequence of legalizing marriage for same-sex couples? So that’s one reason.

The second reason is that in the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe vs. Wade , Justice Clarence Thomas in his concurring opinion said explicitly that this Supreme Court should consider reviewing and potentially overturning other decisions , and he named the 2015 Obergefell vs. Hodges decision that legalized marriage for same-sex couples by name. Given that people may be wondering about the merits of that decision, it seemed like a good time to evaluate the consequences of that decision, and that’s what we’ve done.

What did you find?

BK: We found 96 studies across a range of disciplines. Some are in economics. Some are in psychology. Some are in medicine. Some are in public health.

Melanie Zaber: We wanted it to be research that actually measured something. There were a number of more qualitative or theoretical or legal arguments that we excluded.

BK: What I found most notable is that all of the studies drew the same conclusions: There was either no effect or beneficial effects on any outcome you could look at. That’s 20 years of research, 96 studies, and no harms.

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Does it seem plausible that the results could be so one-sided?

BK: I was not surprised. There’s a lot of good theory in family science and relationship science to argue that if you extend rights to a group that’s been stigmatized, that group should do better, and the majority group should not be affected. Indeed, that’s what we found.

MZ: I don’t find it particularly surprising. When we say there are no harms, that doesn’t mean everything’s coming up sunshine and roses — it means sunshine and roses or nothing. In this case, where the prediction was something negative, then nothing still feels like sunshine and roses.

What sorts of things did these studies measure?

BK: There were three general categories. The largest group was looking at outcomes for LGBT individuals and same-sex couples. The second bucket looked at the children of same-sex parents. And the third bucket was the effect on everybody else.

There was no evidence of harms anywhere.

That’s interesting because opponents of these policy changes very strongly — and very explicitly — predicted there would be harms. They predicted it in front of the Supreme Court , arguing that if we allow same-sex couples to marry, the consequences for the country will be negative and severe and unavoidable and irreversible.

Who benefits the most from legalizing same-sex marriage?

BK: Same-sex couples. Their relationships last longer when they are able to marry and cement their commitment. Their incomes go up. Their mental health improves.

That mental health improvement extends to LGBT individuals whether or not they are married. Even if you’re not married , if you’re a member of a sexual minority and live in a world that validates same-sex relationships, that relieves a stressor and has measurable benefits on physical and mental health.

What’s behind these improvements?

BK: The effects on health seem like they operate partly through employer-based health insurance being extended to spouses.

The mechanisms for mental health have been described by minority stress theory . Living in a society that is constantly sending you a message that you are less worthy of equal treatment is stressful, partly because it leads to discrimination. Being the target of discrimination is stressful , and that stress has real mental and physical consequences .

You found 96 studies about gay marriage. Why did you conduct your own research as well?

MZ: Some of those studies were conducted when only a few states had marriage for same-sex couples. A state like West Virginia or Wyoming might say, “Well that’s all well and good that you have evidence from Massachusetts or Vermont, but New England isn’t the center of the universe.”

By looking at a broader range of years, we’re better able to capture some of those states that did allow same-sex couples to marry but weren’t among the first to do so. We have reason to think those states may be very different environments. Our approach was to use each state as a quasi-experiment.

What did all that data tell you?

MZ: The headline from our new analysis is no negative impacts and some positive ones.

We see an increase in marriage, and that increase is driven not just by newly marrying same-sex couples, but also by an increase in marriage among different-sex couples. That was a bit surprising to us.

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May 16, 2022

What do you think was going on?

MZ: There are a few different mechanisms for this, none of which we can explicitly test.

One could be allyship . There are individuals who identify as cisgender straight individuals, but they want to show their allyship so they delay marriage until everyone’s able to marry.

There’s an increasing number of individuals who identify as bisexual in the United States. Even if they’re marrying a different-sex partner, they may be trying to have validation of their broader identity.

The argument we find most compelling is that having people loudly clamoring for all the great things that come along with marriage made people in the broader population say, “Oh hey, getting married means people can go visit me in the hospital, and that if I’m in an accident there’s no concern about who my property will go to, and we have more access to health insurance.” Talking about that may have made some people realize, “You know, marriage actually is pretty helpful.”

BK: If you hear about a restaurant that everyone’s trying to get into, you want to eat at that restaurant.

MZ: That is an excellent way of putting it!

Do you think this research will persuade those who were concerned that same-sex marriage would have terrible consequences?

MZ: That’s our goal — to put evidence out to the public so policymakers can make informed choices.

BK: I’d like to believe so. At the time those arguments were made, they were speculative. People were trying to predict the future. Now we don’t have to predict the future. Twenty years have passed and we have the data. We can document what has happened.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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Karen Kaplan covers science and medical research for the Los Angeles Times. She has been a member of the science team since 2005, including 13 years as an editor. Her first decade at The Times was spent covering technology in the Business section as both a reporter and editor. She grew up in San Diego and is a graduate of MIT and Columbia University.

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