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What is the IPCC AR6 synthesis report and why does it matter?

Summary report by world’s leading climate scientists sets out actions to stave off climate breakdown

• Samoa PM urges world to save Pacific people from climate crisis obliteration

What is the IPCC AR6 synthesis report?

The fourth and final instalment of the sixth assessment report (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , the body of the world’s leading climate scientists, is the synthesis report, so called because it draws together the key findings of the preceding three main sections. Together, they make a comprehensive review of global knowledge of the climate.

The first three sections covered the physical science of the climate crisis, including observations and projections of global heating, the impacts of the climate crisis and how to adapt to them, and ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. They were published in August 2021, February and April 2022 respectively.

The synthesis report also includes three other shorter IPCC reports published since 2018, on the impacts of global heating of more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, climate change and land , and climate change and the oceans and cryosphere (the ice caps and glaciers).

What will the key findings be?

There is no new science in the synthesis report, just a recap of the main findings of the previous publications. Those include warnings that the world was approaching “irreversible” levels of global heating, with catastrophic impacts rapidly becoming inevitable ; and that it was “now or never” to take drastic action to avoid disaster.

Much of the synthesis report is likely to focus on the future, setting out the possible policies and actions that will stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown and warning of the impacts of further heating.

If the main findings have already been published, why is this report needed?

Its purpose is to reduce the thousands of pages of science to a shorter format, which is further condensed into a “summary for policymakers”, to provide scientific underpinning for global climate action. It is written by scientists but haggled over by representatives of the UN’s nearly 200 governments, so some argue it is subject to watering down by regimes that do not like its messages .

The report is supposed to inform the next UN climate summit, Cop28 , which will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates in Dubai from 30 November. There, nations’ progress on cutting greenhouse gas emissions since the Paris climate agreement of 2015 will be assessed. It is certain to find that governments are well off track on their emissions-cutting goals.

Will this report change anything?

This is the sixth IPCC report since the body was set up in 1988, with each comprehensive assessment taking roughly six to eight years to compile. As the reports have grown in size and urgency, so have global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2018, the IPCC warned that emissions must be halved by 2030, compared with 2010 levels, to have a good chance of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C. Yet emissions continue to climb. Last year, they rose by a little under 1% , according to the International Energy Agency. That leaves a rapidly diminishing “carbon budget” for the world to stay within the IPCC’s advised limits.

What should governments do?

Reduce emissions sharply and give up fossil fuels, through investments in renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies, increase energy efficiency, rethink agriculture and restore forests and degraded natural landscapes. It may also be necessary to develop technologies that suck carbon dioxide from the air, called “direct air capture” , or explore other means of “climate repair” .

When is the next IPCC report?

Not until about 2030. That means AR6 is effectively the last IPCC report while it is still feasible – only just – to stay within 1.5C.

Now that the impacts of the climate crisis are highly visible, and the underlying science well understood , some argue that the reporting cycles should be shortened, so that policymakers can receive clearer scientific advice throughout this crucial decade.

The IPCC can also be ordered to compile shorter reports on specific subjects, in between its mammoth comprehensive assessments. The increasingly urgent question of what to do if the world overshoots 1.5C of heating could well be a candidate for such treatment.

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10 Big Findings from the 2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change

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March 20 marked the release of the final installment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) , an eight-year long undertaking from the world’s most authoritative scientific body on climate change. Drawing on the findings of 234 scientists on the  physical science of climate change , 270 scientists on  impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change , and 278 scientists on  climate change mitigation , this  IPCC synthesis report  provides the most comprehensive, best available scientific assessment of climate change.

It also makes for grim reading. Across nearly 8,000 pages, the AR6 details the devastating consequences of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the world — the destruction of homes, the loss of livelihoods and the fragmentation of communities, for example — as well as the increasingly dangerous and irreversible risks should we fail to change course.

But the IPCC also offers hope, highlighting pathways to avoid these intensifying risks. It identifies readily available, and in some cases, highly cost-effective actions that can be undertaken now to reduce GHG emissions, scale up carbon removal and build resilience. While the window to address the climate crisis is rapidly closing, the IPCC affirms that we can still secure a safe, livable future.

Here are 10 key findings you need to know:

1. Human-induced global warming of 1.1 degrees C has spurred changes to the Earth’s climate that are unprecedented in recent human history.

Already, with 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of global temperature rise, changes to the climate system that are unparalleled over centuries to millennia are now occurring in every region of the world, from rising sea levels to more extreme weather events to rapidly disappearing sea ice.

Additional warming will increase the magnitude of these changes. Every 0.5 degree C (0.9 degrees F) of global temperature rise, for example, will cause clearly discernible increases in the frequency and severity of heat extremes, heavy rainfall events and regional droughts. Similarly, heatwaves that, on average, arose once every 10 years in a climate with little human influence will likely occur 4.1 times more frequently with 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) of warming, 5.6 times with 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and 9.4 times with 4 degrees C (7.2 degrees F) — and the intensity of these heatwaves will also increase by 1.9 degrees C (3.4 degrees F), 2.6 degrees C (4.7 degrees F) and 5.1 degrees C (9.2 degrees F) respectively.

Rising global temperatures also heighten the probability of reaching dangerous tipping points in the climate system that, once crossed, can trigger self-amplifying feedbacks that further increase global warming, such as thawing permafrost or massive forest dieback. Setting such reinforcing feedbacks in motion can also lead to other substantial, abrupt and irreversible changes to the climate system. Should warming reach between 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F), for example, the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could melt almost completely and irreversibly over many thousands of years, causing sea levels to rise by several meters.

2. Climate impacts on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than expected, and future risks will escalate rapidly with every fraction of a degree of warming.

Described as an “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership” by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, one of AR6’s most alarming conclusions is that adverse climate impacts are already more far-reaching and extreme than anticipated. About half of the global population currently contends with severe water scarcity for at least one month per year, while higher temperatures are enabling the spread of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, West Nile virus and Lyme disease. Climate change has also slowed improvements in agricultural productivity in middle and low latitudes, with crop productivity growth shrinking by a third in Africa since 1961. And since 2008, extreme floods and storms have forced over 20 million people from their homes every year.

Every fraction of a degree of warming will intensify these threats, and even limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degree C is not safe for all. At this level of warming, for example, 950 million people across the world’s drylands will experience water stress, heat stress and desertification, while the share of the global population exposed to flooding will rise by 24%.

Similarly, overshooting 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), even temporarily, will lead to much more severe, oftentimes irreversible impacts, from local species extinctions to the complete drowning of salt marshes to loss of human lives from increased heat stress. Limiting the magnitude and duration of overshooting 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), then, will prove critical in ensuring a safe, livable future, as will holding warming to as close to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) or below as possible. Even if this temperature limit is exceeded by the end of the century, the imperative to rapidly curb GHG emissions to avoid higher levels of warming and associated impacts remains unchanged.

3. Adaptation measures can effectively build resilience, but more finance is needed to scale solutions.

Climate policies in at least 170 countries now consider adaptation, but in many nations, these efforts have yet to progress from planning to implementation. Measures to build resilience are still largely small-scale, reactive and incremental, with most focusing on immediate impacts or near-term risks. This disparity between today’s levels of adaptation and those required persists in large part due to limited finance. According to the IPCC, developing countries alone will need $127 billion per year by 2030 and $295 billion per year by 2050 to adapt to climate change. But funds for adaptation reached just $23 billion to $46 billion from 2017 to 2018, accounting for only 4% to 8% of tracked climate finance.

The good news is that the IPCC finds that, with sufficient support, proven and readily available adaptation solutions can build resilience to climate risks and, in many cases, simultaneously deliver broader sustainable development benefits.

Ecosystem-based adaptation, for example, can help communities adapt to impacts that are already devastating their lives and livelihoods, while also safeguarding biodiversity, improving health outcomes, bolstering food security, delivering economic benefits and enhancing carbon sequestration. Many ecosystem-based adaptation measures — including the protection, restoration and sustainable management of ecosystems, as well as more sustainable agricultural practices like integrating trees into farmlands and increasing crop diversity — can be implemented at relatively low costs today. Meaningful collaboration with Indigenous Peoples and local communities is critical to the success of this approach, as is ensuring that ecosystem-based adaptation strategies are designed to account for how future global temperature rise will impact ecosystems.

4. Some climate impacts are already so severe they cannot be adapted to, leading to losses and damages.

Around the world, highly vulnerable people and ecosystems are already struggling to adapt to climate change impacts. For some, these limits are “soft” — effective adaptation measures exist, but economic, political and social obstacles constrain implementation, such as lack of technical support or inadequate funding that does not reach the communities where it’s needed most. But in other regions, people and ecosystems already face or are fast approaching “hard” limits to adaptation, where climate impacts from 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of global warming are becoming so frequent and severe that no existing adaptation strategies can fully avoid losses and damages. Coastal communities in the tropics, for example, have seen entire coral reef systems that once supported their livelihoods and food security experience widespread mortality, while rising sea levels have forced other low-lying neighborhoods to move to higher ground and abandon cultural sites. 

Whether grappling with soft or hard limits to adaptation, the result for vulnerable communities is oftentimes irreversible and devastating. Such losses and damages will only escalate as the world warms. Beyond 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) of global temperature rise, for example, regions reliant on snow and glacial melt will likely experience water shortages to which they cannot adapt. At 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), the risk of concurrent maize production failures across important growing regions will rise dramatically. And above 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F), dangerously high summertime heat will threaten the health of communities in parts of southern Europe.

Urgent action is needed to avert, minimize and address these losses and damages. At COP27, countries took a critical step forward by agreeing to establish funding arrangements for loss and damage, including a dedicated fund. While this represents  a historic breakthrough  in the climate negotiations, countries must now figure out the details of what these funding arrangements, as well as the new fund , will look like in practice — and it’s these details that will ultimately determine the adequacy, accessibility, additionality and predictability of these financial flows to those experiencing loss and damage.

5. Global GHG emissions peak before 2025 in 1.5 degrees C-aligned pathways.

The IPCC finds that there is a more than 50% chance that global temperature rise will reach or surpass 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) between 2021 and 2040 across studied scenarios, and under a high-emissions pathway, specifically, the world may hit this threshold even sooner — between 2018 and 2037. Global temperature rise in such a carbon-intensive scenario could also increase to 3.3 degrees C to 5.7 degrees C (5.9 degrees F to 10.3 degrees F) by 2100. To put this projected amount of warming into perspective, the last time global temperatures exceeded 2.5 degrees C (4.5 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels was more than 3 million years ago.

Changing course to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — will instead require deep GHG emissions reductions in the near-term. In modelled pathways that limit global warming to this goal, GHG emissions peak immediately and before 2025 at the latest. They then drop rapidly, declining 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels.

While there are some bright spots — the annual growth rate of GHG emissions slowed from an average of 2.1% per year between 2000 and 2009 to 1.3% per year between 2010 and 2019, for example — global progress in mitigating climate change remains woefully off track. GHG emissions have climbed steadily over the past decade, reaching 59 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2019 — approximately 12% higher than in 2010 and 54% greater than in 1990.

Even if countries achieved their climate pledges (also known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs),  WRI research  finds that they would reduce GHG emissions by just 7% from 2019 levels by 2030, in contrast to the 43% associated with limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). And while handful of countries have submitted  new or enhanced NDCs  since the IPCC’s cut-off date,  more recent analysis  that takes these submissions into account finds that these commitments collectively still fall short of closing this emissions gap.

6. The world must rapidly shift away from burning fossil fuels — the number one cause of the climate crisis.

In pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) with no or limited overshoot just a net 510 GtCO2 can be emitted before carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero in the early 2050s. Yet future carbon dioxide emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure alone could surpass that limit by 340 GtCO2, reaching 850 GtCO2.

A mix of strategies can help avoid  locking in  these emissions, including retiring existing fossil fuel infrastructure, canceling new projects, retrofitting fossil-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and scaling up renewable energy sources like solar and wind (which are now cheaper than fossil fuels in many regions).

In pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — for example, global use of coal falls by 95% by 2050, oil declines by about 60% and gas by about 45%. These figures assume significant use of abatement technologies like CCS, and without them, these same pathways show much steeper declines by mid-century. Global use of coal without CCS, for example, is virtually phased out by 2050.

Although coal-fired power plants are starting to be retired across Europe and the United States, some multilateral development banks continue to invest in new coal capacity. Failure to change course risks stranding assets worth trillions of dollars.

7. We also need urgent, systemwide transformations to secure a net-zero, climate-resilient future.

While fossil fuels are the number one source of GHG emissions, deep emission cuts are necessary across all of society to combat the climate crisis. Power generation, buildings, industry, and transport are responsible for close to 80% of global emissions while agriculture, forestry and other land uses account for the remainder.

Take the  transport system , for instance. Drastically cutting emissions will require urban planning that minimizes the need for travel, as well as the build-out of shared, public and nonmotorized transport, such as rapid transit and bicycling in cities. Such a transformation will also entail increasing the supply of electric passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and buses, coupled with wide-scale installation of rapid-charging infrastructure, investments in zero-carbon fuels for shipping and aviation and more.

Policy measures that make these changes less disruptive can help accelerate needed transitions, such as subsidizing zero-carbon technologies and taxing high-emissions technologies like fossil-fueled cars. Infrastructure design — like reallocating street space for sidewalks or bike lanes — can help people transition to lower-emissions lifestyles. It is important to note there are many co-benefits that accompany these transformations, too. Minimizing the number of passenger vehicles on the road, in this example, reduces harmful local air pollution and cuts traffic-related crashes and deaths.

Systems Change Lab  monitors, learns from and mobilizes action to achieve the far-reaching transformational shifts needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, halt biodiversity loss and build a just and equitable economy.

Transformative adaptation measures, too, are critical for securing a more prosperous future. The IPCC emphasizes the importance of ensuring that adaptation measures drive systemic change, cut across sectors and are distributed equitably across at-risk regions. The good news is that there are oftentimes strong synergies between transformational mitigation and adaptation. For example, in the global food system, climate-smart agriculture practices like shifting to  agroforestry  can improve resilience to climate impacts, while simultaneously advancing mitigation.  

8. Carbon removal is now essential to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C.

Deep decarbonization across all systems while building resilience won’t be enough to achieve global climate goals, though. The IPCC finds that all pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — depend on some quantity of  carbon removal . These approaches encompass both natural solutions, such as sequestering and storing carbon in trees and soil, as well as more nascent technologies that pull carbon dioxide directly from the air.

Hover over each carbon removal approach to learn more:

Note: This figure includes carbon removal approaches mentioned in countries' long-term climate strategies as well as other leading proposed approaches. Note: The natural vs. technological categorization shown here is illustrative rather than definitive and will vary depending on how approaches are applied, particularly for carbon removal approaches in the ocean.

The amount of carbon removal required depends on how quickly we reduce GHG emissions across other systems and the extent to which climate targets are overshot, with estimates ranging from between 5 GtCO2 to 16 GtCO2 per year needed by mid-century.

All carbon removal approaches have merits and drawbacks. Reforestation, for instance, represents a readily available, relatively low-cost strategy that, when implemented appropriately, can deliver a wide range of benefits to communities. Yet the carbon stored within these ecosystems is also vulnerable to disturbances like wildfires, which may increase in frequency and severity with additional warming. And, while technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may offer a more permanent solution, such approaches also risk displacing croplands, and in doing so, threatening food security. Responsibly researching, developing and deploying emerging carbon removal technologies, alongside existing natural approaches, will therefore require careful understanding of each solution’s unique benefits, costs and risks.

9. Climate finance for both mitigation and adaptation must increase dramatically this decade.

The IPCC finds that public and private finance flows for fossil fuels today far surpass those directed toward climate mitigation and adaptation. Thus, while annual public and private climate finance has risen by upwards of 60% since the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, much more is still required to achieve global climate change goals. For instance, climate finance will need to increase between 3 and 6 times by 2030 to achieve mitigation goals, alone.

This gap is widest in developing countries, particularly those already struggling with debt, poor credit ratings and economic burdens from the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent mitigation investments, for example, need to increase by at least sixfold in Southeast Asia and developing countries in the Pacific, fivefold in Africa and fourteenfold in the Middle East by 2030 to hold warming below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). And across sectors, this shortfall is most pronounced for agriculture, forestry and other land use, where recent financial flows are 10 to 31 times below what is required to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Finance for adaptation, as well as loss and damage, will also need to rise dramatically. Developing countries, for example, will need $127 billion per year by 2030 and $295 billion per year by 2050. While AR6 does not assess countries’ needs for finance to avert, minimize and address losses and damages,  recent estimates  suggest that they will be substantial in the coming decades. Current funds for both fall well below estimated needs, with the highest estimates of adaptation finance totaling under $50 billion per year.

10. Climate change — as well as our collective efforts to adapt to and mitigate it — will exacerbate inequity should we fail to ensure a just transition.  

Households with incomes in the top 10%, including a relatively large share in developed countries, emit upwards of 45% of the world's GHGs, while those families earning in the bottom 50% account for 15% at most. Yet the effects of climate change already — and will continue to — hit poorer, historically marginalized communities the hardest.

Today, between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people live in countries that are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, with global hotspots concentrated in the Arctic, Central and South America, Small Island Developing states, South Asia and much of sub-Saharan Africa. Across many countries in these regions, conflict, existing inequalities and development challenges (e.g., poverty and limited access to basic services like clean water) not only heighten sensitivity to climate hazards, but also limit communities’ capacity to adapt.  Mortality from storms, floods and droughts, for instance, was 15 times higher in countries with high vulnerability to climate change than in those with very low vulnerability from 2010 to 2020.

At the same time, efforts to mitigate climate change also risk disruptive changes and exacerbating inequity. Retiring coal-fired power plants, for instance, may displace workers, harm local economies and reconfigure the social fabric of communities, while inappropriately implemented efforts to halt deforestation could heighten poverty and intensify food insecurity. And certain climate policies, such as  carbon taxes  that raise the cost of emissions-intensive goods like gasoline, can also prove to be regressive, absent of efforts to recycle the revenues raised from these taxes back into programs that benefit low-income communities.

Fortunately, the IPCC identifies a range of measures that can support a just transition and help ensure that no one is left behind as the world moves toward a net-zero-emissions, climate-resilient future. Reconfiguring social protection programs (e.g., cash transfers, public works programs and social safety nets) to include adaptation, for example, can reduce communities’ vulnerability to a wide range of future climate impacts, while strengthening justice and equity. Such programs are particularly effective when paired with efforts to expand access to infrastructure and basic services.

Similarly, policymakers can design mitigation strategies to better distribute the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions. Governments can pair efforts to phase out coal-fired electricity generation, for instance, with subsidized job retraining programs that support workers in developing the skills needed to secure new, high-quality jobs. Or, in another example, officials can couple policy interventions dedicated to expanding access to public transit with interventions to improve access to nearby, affordable housing.

Across both mitigation and adaptation measures, inclusive, transparent and participatory decision-making processes will play a central role in ensuring a just transition. More specifically, these forums can help cultivate public trust, deepen public support for transformative climate action and avoid unintended consequences.

Looking Ahead

The IPCC’s AR6 makes clear that risks of inaction on climate are immense and the way ahead requires change at a scale not seen before. However, this report also serves as a reminder that we have never had more information about the gravity of the climate emergency and its cascading impacts — or about what needs to be done to reduce intensifying risks.

Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) is still possible, but only if we act immediately. As the IPCC makes clear, the world needs to peak GHG emissions before 2025 at the very latest, nearly halve GHG emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero CO2 emissions around mid-century, while also ensuring a just and equitable transition. We’ll also need an all-hands-on-deck approach to guarantee that communities experiencing increasingly harmful impacts of the climate crisis have the resources they need to adapt to this new world. Governments, the private sector, civil society and individuals must all step up to keep the future we desire in sight. A narrow window of opportunity is still open, but there’s not one second to waste.

Note: In addition to showcasing findings from the IPCC’s AR6 Synthesis Report, this article also draws on previous articles detailing the IPCC’s findings on  the physical science of climate change ,  impacts, adaption and vulnerability ,  and  climate change mitigation .

Relevant Work

6 takeaways from the 2022 ipcc climate change mitigation report, 6 big findings from the ipcc 2022 report on climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, 5 big findings from the ipcc’s 2021 climate report, 8 things you need to know about the ipcc 1.5˚c report.

Join us on March 23 for a high-level webinar featuring IPCC authors, government representatives and leading carbon removal experts to discuss how carbon removal is a critical tool in our toolbox to address the climate crisis.

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• Published: 04 September 2023

Reflecting on AR6

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Nature Climate Change volume  13 ,  pages 890–892 ( 2023 ) Cite this article

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The release of the IPCC Synthesis Report concludes the sixth assessment cycle (AR6). Nature Climate Change speaks to outgoing IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee about the reports, and the lessons that may inform the seventh assessment cycle.

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WMO | Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

15 November 2023

The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record in 2022, according to this report from the World Meteorological Organization. Global averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas, were a full 50 per cent above the pre-industrial era for the first time, and they continued to grow in 2023. Methane concentrations also grew, and levels of nitrous oxide, the third main gas, saw the highest year-on-year increase on record from 2021 to 2022.

WHO | The Lancet Countdown Report

Climate inaction is costing lives and livelihoods today, with new global projections revealing the grave and mounting threat to health of further delayed action on climate change. But profound and swift action to tackle the root causes of climate change and to support adaptation efforts could offer a lifeline for health. In its eighth iteration, this report draws on the expertise of 114 scientists and health practitioners from 52 research institutions and UN agencies, including the World Health Organization, to provide its most comprehensive assessment yet, tracking the relationship between health and climate change across five key domains and 47 indicators.

UNU-EHS | Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023

25 October 2023

Interconnected Disaster Risks is an annual science-based report from the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). The 2023 report warns of six tipping points ahead of us and the role climate change plays in pushing us towards these tipping points. It explains the potential consequences of surpassing these thresholds for both people and planet and assesses options to avoid them through a new framework that categorizes risk mitigation solutions into four types: avoid, adapt, delay, and transform.

WMO | United in Science 2023

14 September 2023

At the halfway point of the 2030 Agenda, the science is clear – the planet is far off track from meeting its climate goals. This undermines global efforts to tackle hunger, poverty and ill-health, improve access to clean water and energy and many other aspects of sustainable development, according the United in Science 2023 report, a multi-agency report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

WMO | State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2022

18 August 2023

Sea level rise threatens the future of low-lying islands whilst increasing ocean heat and acidification harms vital and vulnerable marine ecosystems, according to the State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2022 report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The report provides a snapshot of climate indicators including temperatures, sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification, and extreme weather events in 2022. It also highlights the socio-economic risks and impacts on key sectors like agriculture.

WMO | State of the Climate in Asia 2022

27 July 2023

Extreme weather and climate change impacts are increasing in Asia, which ricocheted between droughts and floods in 2022, ruining lives and destroying livelihoods. Melting ice and glaciers and rising sea levels threaten more socio-economic disruption in future, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The expected increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events over much of Asia will impact agriculture, which is central to all climate adaptation planning.

WMO | State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2022

5 July 2023

Extreme weather and climate shocks are becoming more acute in Latin America and the Caribbean, as the long-term warming trend and sea level rise accelerate, according to WMO’s report on the state of the climate in the region. Temperatures over the past 30 years have warmed at the highest rate on record and the newly arrived El Niño is likely to further increase temperatures and bring even more extreme weather. The report addresses agriculture, food security, and energy as top priority areas for adaptation and mitigation, highlighting the impacts of persistent droughts and the unexploited potential of renewable energy. The report also stresses the need for strengthened early warning systems across the region.

WMO | State of the Climate in Europe 2022

19 June 2023

Climate change is taking a major human, economic and environmental toll in Europe, the fastest warming continent of the world. The year 2022 was marked by extreme heat, drought and wildfires. Sea surface temperatures around Europe reached new highs, accompanied by marine heatwaves. Glacier melt was unprecedented. The State of the Climate in Europe 2022 report, the second in an annual series, was produced jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

WMO | Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

17 May 2023

Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fueled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño. According to this report issued by the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. The Paris Agreement refers to the 1.5°C threshold for long-term warming over many years. This report predicts the level will be breached temporarily, with increasing frequency, but not permanently.

IPCC | Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report

20 March 2023

More than a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use have led to global warming of 1.1°C above pre -industrial levels. This has resulted in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events that have caused increasingly dangerous impacts on nature and people in every region of the world. But there are multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change, and they are available now, said scientists in this IPCC report. Taking effective and equitable climate action will not only reduce losses and damages for nature and people, it will also provide wider benefits, the report points out, underscoring the urgency of taking more ambitious action now to secure a livable sustainable future for all.

UNEP | One Atmosphere: An Independent Expert Review on Solar Radiation Modification Research and Deployment

27 February 2023

Solar Radiation Modification – a speculative group of technologies to cool the Earth – requires far more research into its risks and benefits before any consideration for potential deployment, according to an Expert Panel convened by the United Nations Environment Programme. The panel finds that Solar Radiation Modification is not yet ready for large-scale deployment to cool the Earth. Rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions must remain the global priority, the report states.

WMO | State of the Global Climate in 2022

21 April 2023

The State of the Global Climate 2022 shows the planetary-scale changes on land, in the ocean and in the atmosphere caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The years 2015-2022 were the eight warmest on record, despite the cooling impact of a La Niña event for the past three years. Melting of glaciers and sea level rise - which again reached record levels in 2022 - will continue to up to thousands of years. Antarctic sea ice fell to its lowest extent on record, and the melting of some European glaciers was, literally, off the charts.

UNEP | Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window

27 October 2022

Inadequate progress on climate action calls for urgent sector and system-wide transformations – in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems – as current climate pledges leave the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.4-2.6°C by the end of this century.

26 October, 2022

The latest report warns that atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide - reached new record highs in 2021, showing the biggest year-on-year jump in methane concentrations since systematic measurements began nearly 40 years ago. Moreover, the increase in carbon dioxide levels from 2020 to 2021 was larger than the average annual growth rate over the last decade.

WMO | United in Science 2022

13 September 2022

As global warming increases, “tipping points” in the climate system cannot be ruled out and the ambition of emissions reduction pledges for 2030 needs to be seven times higher to be in line with the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement.

WMO | State of the Climate in Africa 2021

8 September 2022

Water stress and hazards like withering droughts and devastating floods are hitting African communities, economies, and ecosystems hard. Rising water demand combined with limited and unpredictable supplies threatens to aggravate conflict and displacement.

IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

4 April 2022

Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) is beyond reach. In the scenarios assessed, limiting warming to around 1.5°C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third. According to the report, there is increasing evidence of climate action. In 2010-2019, average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history, but the rate of growth has slowed. An increasing range of policies and laws have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy.

WMO | State of Global Climate 2021

18 May 2022

Record atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated accumulated heat have propelled the planet into uncharted territory, with far-reaching repercussions for current and future generations. This report finds the past seven years are on track to be the seven warmest on record, based on data for the first nine months of 2021. A temporary cooling “La Niña” event early in the year means that 2021 is expected to be “only” the fifth to seventh warmest year on record. But this does not negate or reverse the long-term trend of rising temperatures. Global sea level rise accelerated since 2013 to a new high in 2021, with continued ocean warming and ocean acidification. The report combines input from multiple United Nations agencies, national meteorological and hydrological services and scientific experts. It highlights impacts on food security and population displacement, harming crucial ecosystems and undermining progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability

28 February 2022

Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and is affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, says this Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit. Increased heatwaves, droughts and floods are already exceeding plants and animals’ tolerance thresholds, driving mass mortalities in species such as trees and corals. These weather extremes are occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to manage. They have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on small islands and in the Arctic. To avoid mounting loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, urgent, ambitious, and accelerated action is required to adapt to climate change, at the same time as making rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

WMO| Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

25 October 2021

The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record in 2020, with the annual rate of increase above the 2011-2020 average. That trend has continued in 2021, according to the latest Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Concentration of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, reached 413.2 parts per million in 2020 and is 149 per cent of the pre-industrial level. Methane is 262 per cent of the level in 1750 when human activities started disrupting the Earth’s natural equilibrium. The economic slowdown from COVID-19 did not have any discernible impact on atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases and their growth rates, although there was a temporary decline in new emissions. Roughly half of carbon dioxide emitted by human activities today remains in the atmosphere. The other half is taken up by oceans and land ecosystems, but their ability to act as “sinks” may become less effective in the future.

WMO and others | The State of the Climate in Africa 2020

19 October 2021

This report provides a snapshot of climate change trends and impacts in Africa, including sea level rise and the melting of the continent’s iconic glaciers. It highlights the region’s disproportionate vulnerability and shows how the potential benefits of investments in climate adaptation, weather and climate services and early warning systems far outweigh the costs. The report adds to the scientific evidence underlining the urgency of cutting global greenhouse gas emissions, stepping up climate ambition and increasing financing for adaptation. Greater weather and climate variability mean that up to 118 million extremely poor people in Africa may face drought, floods and extreme heat by 2030. Without response measures, poverty alleviation efforts will slow and gross domestic product could fall by up to 3 percent by 2050.

UN | United in Science 2021

16 September 2021

COVID-19 paused but did not slow the relentless advance of climate change. Record levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere commit the planet to dangerous future warming, according to a new report that links the latest findings from across the United Nations. Rising global temperatures are fuelling extreme weather throughout the world, impacting economies and societies. The average global temperature for the past five years was among the highest on record, and the scale of recent changes across the global climate system is unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years. Even with ambitious action to slow greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels will continue to rise and threaten low-lying islands and coastal populations throughout the world. The findings reinforce critical momentum behind climate action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

IPCC | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

9 August 2021

Climate change is widespread, rapid and intensifying. That is the key finding of the latest scientific report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It finds changes in the Earth’s climate in every region and across the whole climate system. Many changes are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years. Some, such as continued sea-level rise, are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years. The report points to strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to limit climate change. Benefits for air quality would come quickly, while global temperatures would take 20-30 years to stabilize. The report, issued by the IPCC’s Working Group I and approved by 195 member governments, is the first in a series leading up to the 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. It includes a closer look at the regional dimensions of climate change and builds on advances in attributing specific weather and climate events to climate change.

WMO | State of the Global Climate 2020

20 April 2021

The State of the Global Climate 2020 finds the year was one of the three warmest on record, despite a cooling La Niña event. The global average temperature was about 1.2° Celsius above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) level. The six years since 2015 have been the warmest on record, with 2011-2020 the warmest decade on record. The report documents indicators of the climate system, including greenhouse gas concentrations, increasing land and ocean temperatures, sea level rise, melting ice and glacier retreat and extreme weather. It also highlights impacts on socioeconomic development, migration and displacement, food security and land and marine ecosystems.

23 November 2020

The global slowdown from the COVID-19 pandemic has not curbed rising levels of greenhouse gases, said the World Meteorological Organization in releasing its latest WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Carbon dioxide levels have pushed past another record threshold, after rising in 2019 at a rate faster than the average for the last 10 years.

WMO | The State of the Climate in Africa 2019

26 October 2020

Increasing temperatures and sea levels, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather are threatening human health and safety, food and water security and socio-economic development in Africa, according to the State of the Climate in Africa Report devoted exclusively to the continent. The report provides a snapshot of current and future climate trends and associated impacts on the economy and sensitive sectors like agriculture. It highlights lessons for climate action in Africa and identifies pathways for addressing critical gaps and challenges.

WMO | 2020 State of Climate Services 2020

13 October 2020

Between 1970 and 2019, 79% of disasters worldwide involved weather, water, and climate-related hazards. These disasters accounted for 56% of deaths and 75% of economic losses from disasters associated with natural hazards reported during that period. As climate change continues to threaten human lives, ecosystems and economies, risk information and early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly seen as key for reducing these impacts. This latest WMO report highlights progress made in EWS capacity – and identifies where and how governments can invest in effective EWS to strengthen countries’ resilience to multiple weather, water and climate-related hazards.

WMO | United in Science 2020

9 September 2020

Climate change has not stopped for COVID19. United in Science 2020, a new multi-agency report from leading science organizations, highlights the increasing and irreversible impacts of climate change, which affects glaciers, oceans, nature, economies and human living conditions and is often felt through water-related hazards like drought or flooding. It also documents how COVID-19 has impeded our ability to monitor these changes through the global observing system.

WMO | State of the Global Climate in 2019

10 March 2020

The tell-tale physical signs of climate change, such as increasing land and ocean heat, accelerating sea level rise and melting ice, contributed to making 2019 the second warmest year on record according to a new report compiled by a network led by the World Meteorological Organization. The report documents the increasing impacts of weather and climate events on socio-economic development, human health, migration and displacement, food security and land and marine ecosystems.

WMO | State of the Global Climate in 2018

28 March 2019

The physical signs and socio-economic impacts of climate change are accelerating as record greenhouse gas concentrations drive global temperatures towards increasingly dangerous levels, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization.

The WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018 , its 25th anniversary edition, highlights record sea level rise, as well as exceptionally high land and ocean temperatures over the past four years. This warming trend has lasted since the start of this century and is expected to continue.

IPCC | Special Report

8 October 2018

Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in a new assessment. With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, limiting global warming to 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society.

22 November 2018

The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere. The report found that levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached another new record high, according to the World Meteorological Organization. There is no sign of a reversal in this trend, which is driving long-term climate change, sea level rise, ocean acidification and more extreme weather.

IPCC | AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014

2 November 2014

The Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides an overview of the state of knowledge concerning the science of climate change. It shows that human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.

Limiting Climate Change

UNODC | Global Analysis on Crimes that Affect the Environment

17 May 2024

This Global Analysis on Crimes that Affect the Environment is a robust exploration of what crimes that affect the environment are, how they are committed, the role of organized crime groups and corruption, what drives people and corporations to commit crimes that affect the environment, what are the supply chain structures of illegal environmental commodities, what does this all mean for improved policies and prevention strategies, and what are the impacts of crimes that affect the environment.

UNESCO | Press and Planet in Danger

In its new report Press and Planet in Danger, UNESCO revealed instances in which at least 749 journalists and news media outlets reporting on environmental issues were targeted with murder, physical violence, detention and arrest, online harassment or legal attacks in the period 2009-2023. More than 300 attacks occurred between 2019-2023 – a 42% increase on the preceding five-year period (2014-2018).

ILO | Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate

A “staggering” number of workers, amounting to more than 70 per cent of the global workforce, are likely to be exposed to climate-change-related health hazards, and existing occupational safety and health (OSH) protections are struggling to keep up with the resulting risks, according to te report by the International Labour Organization (ILO).

REN21 | Renewables 2024 Global Status Report – Global Overview Module

4 April 2024

As the first module of the Global Status Report 2024 series, the Global Overview provides the big picture status of renewables in the wider energy system and in the context of global challenges such as climate change, development goals, and the geopolitical landscape.

UNDOC | Turning the Tide: A Look Into the European Union-to-Southeast Asia Waste Trafficking Wave

2 April 2024

“Turning the Tide” is the cornerstone publication in a series produced through the Unwaste project to take an in-depth look at the many facets of waste trafficking . The new research sheds light on how criminal actors exploit legal trade and regulatory and enforcement loopholes for financial gain. It also explores the negative impact this crime has on the global circular economy.

UNEP | Food Waste Index Report 2024

27 March 2024

Food waste continues to hurt the global economy and fuel climate change, nature loss, and pollution. These are the key findings of the UNEP Food Waste Index Report 2024. The report provides the most accurate global estimate on food waste at retail and consumer levels. It provides guidance for countries on improving data collection and suggests best practices in moving from measuring to reducing food waste.

UNEP | Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction

6 March 2024

The Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction tracks progress and outlines recommendations for governments, industry, and civil society towards a zero-emission, efficient, and resilient buildings sector by 2050. The report finds that in 2022 the sector accounted for 37 per cent of global operational energy and process-related CO2 emissions, rising to just under 10 Gt CO2. Its energy consumption reached 132 exajoules, more than a third of global demand.

UN Special Rapporteur on human rights and the environment | Prioritizing Profits over People and Planet: The Devastating Impacts of Large Businesses on the Right to a Clean, Healthy and Sustainable Environment

This Policy Brief accompanies the Special Rapporteur’s report, “Businesses, Planetary Boundaries and the Right to a Clean, Healthy and Sustainable Environment.” That report includes an annex of good practices, whereas this policy brief is akin to a report on bad practices — business activities that have caused or contributed to human rights abuses specifically related to the right to a healthy environment.

FAO | The Unjust Climate Report

5 March 2024

The Unjust Climate report highlights a stark reality: each year in low and middle-income countries, female heads of households in rural areas suffer significantly greater financial losses than men. On average, female-headed households lose 8 per cent more of their income due to heat stress and 3 per cent more due to floods compared to male-headed households. This translates to a total of $37 billion (USD) lost due to heat stress and $16 billion due to floods, across low and middle-income countries.

UNEP | Global Resources Outlook 2024

1 March 2024

The Global Resources Outlook 2024 report sheds light on how resources are essential to the effective implementation of the 2030 Agenda and multilateral environmental agreements to tackle the triple planetary crisis. The report illustrates how, since the 2019 edition of this report, rising trends in global resource use have continued or accelerated. The report also shows how, without urgent and concerted action, by 2060 resource extraction could rise by 60% from 2020 levels – driving increasing damage and risks.

UNEP | Global Waste Management Outlook 2024: "Beyond an age of waste: Turning rubbish into a resource"

28 February 2024

The UNEP Global Waste Management Outlook 2024 (GWMO 2024) provides the most substantial update on global waste generation and the cost of waste and its management since 2018. The analysis uses life cycle assessments to explore what the world could gain or lose through continuing business-as-usual, adopting halfway measures, or committing fully to zero waste and circular economy societies.

UN-Habitat | Local Action for Global Goals: An Opportunity for Enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions

23 February 2024

Home to over half of the world’s population and responsible for about 70 per cent of global emissions, cities are at the heart of the climate crisis.This analysis from UN-Habitat identifies opportunities to strengthen the urban content across national climate action plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) , as key to raising their overall ambition and to strengthen the effective operationalization of climate adaptation and mitigation policies.

UNEP and CCAC | Used Heavy- Duty Vehicles and the Environment: A Global Overview of Used Heavy-Duty Vehicles: Flow, Scale and Regulation

22 February 2024

This report launched by the UNEP and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) provides a first global overview by the UN of the scale and regulation of used heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) and their contribution to global air pollution, road accidents, fuel consumption and climate emissions. The report recommends ways to reduce the harmful aspects of used HDVs on people’s health and the climate.

UNEP | What’s cooking? An assessment of the potential impact of select novel alternatives to conventional animal products

8 December 2023

Emerging novel alternatives to animal products such as meat and dairy may contribute to significantly reducing the environmental footprint of the current global food system, particularly in high- and middle-income countries, provided they use low-carbon energy. This is a key finding of a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment, “What’s cooking?” which finds that these alternatives not only show significant potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but they can also contribute to reductions in land degradation and deforestation, water and soil pollution and loss of biodiversity, as well as to reducing the risks of zoonotic diseases and anti-microbial resistance.

UNEP | Global Cooling Watch 2023 report

The Global Cooling Watch 2023 report from the Cool Coalition let by UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assesses national policy and regulatory actions across all cooling sectors, based on a survey of 192 countries. The report demonstrates the potential and the pathways to achieve near-zero emissions in the key cooling sectors and provides a call to action for countries to pursue the policies and strategies that have the greatest impact in reducing cooling-related emissions and advancing sustainable cooling for all.

UN Women | Feminist Climate Justice: A Framework for Action report

4 December 2023

By 2050, climate change will push up to 158 million more women and girls into poverty and lead to 236 million more women into hunger, according to the UN Women "Feminist Climate Justice: A Framework for Action" report. The climate crisis fuels escalating conflict and forced migration, in a context of exclusionary, anti-rights political rhetoric targeting women, refugees, and other marginalized groups. The report describes how to achieve feminist climate justice through four interlinked dimensions (recognition, redistribution, representation, and reparation) and the principles of interdependence and intersectionality. It provides practical guidance on what countries need to do to transition to low-emission economies that are resilient to a changing climate, while recognizing the leadership of women, girls, and gender-diverse people in driving the change that is so urgently needed.

UNDRR | 2023 Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

3 December 2023

The 2023 Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reveals that more lives are being protected from extreme weather and dangerous climate change impacts but there is a long way to go. Although early warnings coverage has doubled since 2015, half of countries globally still do not have adequate multi-hazard early warning systems.

14 November 2023

A new report from UN Climate Change finds national climate action plans remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Even with increased efforts by some countries, the report shows much more action is needed now to bend the world’s emissions trajectory further downward and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. UNFCCC analyzed the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs - national climate action plans) of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until 25 September 2023.

UNICEF | The Climate-Changed Child

13 November 2023

The climate crisis is not just changing the planet – it is changing children. From the moment of conception until they grow into adulthood, the health and development of children’s brains, lungs, immune systems and other critical functions are affected by the environment they grow up in. This report throws a spotlight on the threat to children as a result of water vulnerability, one of the ways in which the impacts of climate change are being felt. It provides an analysis of the impacts of three tiers of water security globally – water scarcity, water vulnerability, and water stress.

UNEP | Production Gap Report 2023

8 November 2023

The Production Gap Report — produced by Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development, and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) — assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas against global levels consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. The 2023 report finds that governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.

UNEP | Adaptation Gap Report 2023

2 November 2023

The report, titled “Underfinanced. Underprepared – Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed,” finds that progress on climate adaptation is slowing when it should be accelerating to catch up with these rising climate change impacts. The report identifies seven ways to increase financing for adaptation, including through domestic expenditure and international and private sector finance.

WMO | State of Climate Services for Health 2023

Climate change threatens to reverse decades of progress towards better health and well-being, particularly in the most vulnerable communities. Scientific know-how and resources can help redress the balance, but are not sufficiently accessible or utilized, according to a new multi-agency report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization.

UNICEF | Children displaced in a changing climate

06 October 2023

The report notes that there were 43.1 million internal displacements of children linked to weather-related disasters over a six-year period – the equivalent to approximately 20,000 child displacements per day. Almost all – 95 per cent – of recorded child displacements were driven by floods and storms. Looking to the future, the hazard likely to trigger the most child displacements is riverine floods, the report says, with an average of almost 3.2 million children displaced every year. This would represent almost 96 million displacements over the next 30 years.

UNFCCC | Synthesis report on the elements for the outcome of the first global stocktake

04 October 2023

Designed to help governments reach a decision on the global stocktake at COP28, this report reflects the views of governments on the main elements that could constitute such a decision. The global stocktake -- part of the Paris Agreement -- is key to assessing the world’s global response to the climate crisis and charting a better way forward. The synthesis report represents the views of 180 Parties and 44 non-Party stakeholders.

UNFCCC | Synthesis report on the technical dialogue of the first global stocktake

08 September 2023

The most extensive review of global climate action to date, incorporating inputs from scientists, business leaders, indigenous communities, civil society, government officials and more, provides a comprehensive assessment of the collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The report points to some progress but emphasizes the need for accelerated action on all fronts to respond to the climate crisis.

UNEP | Global Climate Litigation Report: 2023 Status Review

According to a report published by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University, climate litigation has more than doubled since 2017 and is growing worldwide, showing it is becoming an integral part of securing climate action and justice. The report demonstrates how courts are finding strong human rights linkages to climate change, which has lead to greater protections for the most vulnerable groups in society, as well as increased accountability, transparency and justice, compelling governments and corporations to pursue more ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation goals.

UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2023)

11 July 2023

The UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2023) highlights how resilience can be strengthened to withstand and respond to shocks. This includes investments in early warning systems where the benefits triple in vulnerable contexts because of their proven ability to reduce damage.

Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2023

6 June 2023

Much remains to be done to deliver sustainable, secure and affordable access to modern energy services to the billions of people who still live without it, the report finds. Electricity use from renewable sources – such as wind, solar, geothermal and hydropower – has grown from 26.3 percent in 2019 to 28.2 percent in 2020, the largest single-year increase since the start of tracking progress on the Sustainable Development Goals. And a record-breaking 268 watts of renewable energy per capita was installed in developing countries in 2021 – a 9.8 percent year-on-year increase. Yet, efforts to increase the share of renewables in heating and transport, which represent more than three quarters of global energy consumption, remain off track, and growth in renewables is unevenly distributed, requiring further action including international cooperation and financing, in particular for least developed countries.

WMO | Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water-related Hazards (1970-2021)

23 May 2023

Extreme weather, climate and water-related events caused 11,778 reported disasters between 1970 and 2021, with just over 2 million deaths and US$ 4.3 trillion in economic losses, according to new data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Economic losses have soared. But improved early warnings and coordinated disaster management has slashed the human casualty toll over the past half a century. Over 90 per cent of reported deaths worldwide occurred in developing countries.

UNEP & WMO | Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion

9 January 2023

This report by a UN-backed panel of experts confirms that the ozone layer is successfully recovering, thanks to a phase-out of nearly 99 per cent of banned ozone-depleting substances through the Montreal Protocol. The efforts to protect the ozone layer have also helped address climate change, allowing the world to avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100, thanks to a phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are powerful greenhouse gases. In its quadrennial report, the Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances for the first time also examines geoengineering and warns of unintended impacts on the ozone layer of technologies such as the intentional addition of aerosols into the stratosphere, known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). SAI has been proposed as a potential method to reduce climate warming by increasing sunlight reflection.

UNEP | The State of the World’s Peatlands

17 November 2022

The Global Peatlands Assessment, which is the most comprehensive assessment to-date, shows that the Earth is losing 500,000 hectares of peatlands a year, while already drained and degraded peatlands contribute around 4 per cent of annual global human-induced emissions.

WMO | State of the Climate in Asia 2021

14 November 2022

The State of the Climate in Asia 2021 report highlights how climate change impacts are wreaking an ever-increasing human, financial and environmental toll, worsening food insecurity and poverty and holding back sustainable development. Economic losses from drought, floods and landslides have rocketed in Asia. In 2021 alone, weather and water-related hazards caused total damage of US$ 35.6 billion, affecting nearly 50 million people.

UNEP | 2022 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction

2 November 2022

The report provides an annual snapshot of the progress of the buildings and construction sector on a global scale and reviews the status of policies, finance, technologies, and solutions to monitor whether the sector is aligned with the Paris Agreement goals.

WMO | Executive Action Plan for the Early Warnings for All

7 November 2022

The Executive Action Plan for the Early Warnings for All initiative calls for initial new targeted investments between 2023 and 2027 of US$3.1 billion – a sum which would be dwarfed by the benefits. This is about 6 percent of the requested US$ 50 billion in adaptation financing. It would cover disaster risk knowledge, observations and forecasting, preparedness and response, and communication of early warnings.

UNEP | Adaptation Gap Report 2022

3 November 2022

As climate impacts intensify across the globe, countries must dramatically increase funding and implementation of actions designed to help vulnerable nations and communities adapt to the climate storm, according to the latest UN Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report.

UNFCCC | Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement

16 October 2022

A synthesis of nationally determined contributions required under the Paris Agreement underlines that efforts remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C by the end of the century. According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. Current commitments are projected to increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels – an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030 – but far from the 45% decrease needed to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C.

UNICEF | The coldest year of the rest of their lives: Protecting children from the escalating impacts of heatwaves

25 October 2022

Latest research from UNICEF shows that 559 million children are currently exposed to high heatwave frequency, where there are on average 4.5 or more heatwaves per year. Further, 624 million children are exposed to one of three other high heat measures - high heatwave duration, high heatwave severity or extreme high temperatures. It warns that even at lower levels of global heating, in just three decades, more regular heatwaves are unavoidable for children everywhere.

OCHA/IFRC | Extreme heat: Preparing for the heatwaves of the future

10 October 2022

Heatwaves already kill thousands of people every year, and they will become deadlier with every further increment of climate change. They demand a humanitarian response that is locally grounded, that acts quickly with data and analysis, and that works in partnerships with local governments, civil society, and development actors to protect the most vulnerable people.

WMO | 2022 State of Climate Services: Energy

11 October 2022

The supply of electricity from clean energy sources must double within the next eight years to limit global temperature increase. Otherwise, there is a risk that climate change, more extreme weather and water stress will undermine our energy security and even jeopardize renewable energy supplies, according to a new multi-agency report from the World Meteorological Organization.

UNDRR | Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems

13 October 2022

A report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the World Meteorological Organization warns that half of the countries globally are not protected by multi-hazard early warning systems.

UNU-EHS | Interconnected Disaster Risks

18 October 2022

In recent years, the world has witnessed catastrophic disasters, from record-breaking heat waves to floods, extreme droughts, wildfires and earthquakes. The latest edition of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report analyzes ten disasters around the world, looking at how they are correlated, share the same root causes compounded by the same issues and should no longer be viewed in isolation.

ILO and IRENA | Renewable Energy and Jobs: Annual Review 2022

22 September 2022

The new report by the International Renewable Energy Agency in collaboration with the International Labour Organization provides the latest estimates of renewable energy employment globally.

REN21 | Renewables 2022 Global Status Report

15 June 2022

We are facing the biggest global energy crisis in history with rising energy consumption and a hike in fossil fuel use which is outpacing growth in renewables in 2021, warns a new report from REN21.

WHO | Climate action must include mental health

3 June 2022

Climate change exacerbates social, environmental, and economic risk factors, directly impacting the mental health and psychosocial wellbeing of many communities, warns a new policy brief from the World Health Organization which recommends key approaches to address the growing impact.

UNCCD | Global Land Outlook

27 April 2022

The way land resources – soil, water, and biodiversity – are currently mismanaged and misused threatens the health and continued survival of many species on Earth, including our own, warns a stark new report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification.

UNDRR | Our World at Risk

26 April 2022

COVID-19 and climate change are rapidly making it clear that, in today’s crowded and interconnected world, disaster impacts increasingly cascade across geographies and sectors. Despite progress, risk creation is outstripping risk reduction, warns the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction’s latest report.

WMO | State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2020

16 August 2021

This is the first report of its kind for Latin America and the Caribbean and it shows that the region is facing increasing temperatures, glaciers retreat, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, coral reefs bleaching, land and marine heatwaves, intense tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and wildfires. The impacts to most vulnerable communities, including the Small Islands Develop States, have been substantial and exacerbated by the COVID-19 outbreak. The report emphasizes the need to enhance climate resilience through identified pathways, such as ecosystem-based responses, as well as strengthened climate services and multi-hazard early warning systems.

WMO | State of the Climate in South-West Pacific 2020

10 November 2021

This report provides informed climate analysis and climate change trends for states and territories across the vast South-West Pacific Ocean, the adjacent oceanic areas north of the equator and the eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. The first report of its kind, it highlights the real and potential risks associated with the changes occurring in ocean circulation, temperature, acidification and deoxygenation, as well as rising sea-level. Climate and extreme weather events had major and diverse impacts on population movements and on the vulnerability of people already on the move in the region throughout 2020. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted socio-economic development in the region, affecting key drivers of growth and revealing gaps in countries’ capacities for addressing systemic and cascading risk. Addressing the rising climate risks and associated impacts requires local, regional and transnational capacity building, development of climate services and integrated disaster risk reduction approaches.

UNEP| The Adaptation Gap Report 2021: The Gathering Storm

1 November 2021

A new report calls for urgent efforts to increase the financing and implementation of actions to adapt to the growing impacts of climate change. While policies and planning are increasing for climate change adaptation, financing and implementation are still far behind. Moreover, countries have largely missed the opportunity to use the pandemic recovery to prioritize green economic growth and adapt to climate impacts such as droughts, storms and wildfire. The report finds that the costs of adaptation are likely in the higher end of an estimated $140-300 billion per year by 2030 and $280-500 billion per year by 2050 for developing countries only. Estimated adaptation costs in developing countries are five to 10 times greater than current public adaptation finance flows, and the gap is widening.

UNDP| Showing Promise: The State of Climate Ambition

21 October 2021

The Paris Agreement’s “ratchet mechanism”, where countries regularly recalibrate and increase the ambition of climate goals, is working according to this report. But small island developing States and least developed countries are leading the way on greater ambition despite contributing only a marginal share of global emissions. The report stresses that it is time for the G20 countries to step up given that they emit the most. In reviewing the most recent national climate action plans, known as nationally determined contributions, the report finds that they are higher quality, more inclusive and country driven than in an earlier round. But finance remains a key hurdle. While countries are increasingly engaging the private sector as critical to scaled up climate action, they are not adequately defining needs in just transition processes. Issues related to gender equality and youth feature more prominently yet more needs to be done to capitalize on the potential of these groups as climate actors and leaders.

WMO and others | The State of the Climate in Asia 2020

26 October 2021

Extreme weather and climate change impacts across Asia in 2020 caused the loss of life of thousands of people, displaced millions of others and cost hundreds of billions of dollars, while wreaking a heavy toll on infrastructure and ecosystems. Sustainable development is threatened, with food and water insecurity, health risks and environmental degradation on the rise. A new report provides an overview of land and ocean temperatures, precipitation, glacier retreat, shrinking sea ice, sea level rise and severe weather. It examines socioeconomic impacts in a year when the region was also struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic, which in turn complicated disaster management. The report shows how every part of Asia was affected, from Himalayan peaks to low-lying coastal areas, from densely populated cities to deserts and from the Arctic to the Arabian seas.

UNEP | Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On

New and updated climate commitments fall far short of Paris Agreement goals, leaving the world on track for a global temperature rise of at least 2.7°C this century. The latest Emissions Gap Report finds that updated national commitments for reducing emissions by 2030 only shave an additional 7.5 per cent off predicted annual totals. Reductions of 55 per cent are needed to stay on course in keeping global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Net-zero pledges could make a big difference if fully implemented, restraining predicted global temperature rise to 2.2°C. This provides hope that further action could still head off the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. But net-zero pledges are vague and incomplete in many cases. To stay at no more than 1.5°C, the world has eight years to take an additional 28 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent off annual emissions, above what has already been promised. Current annual emissions are close to 60 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

UNFCCC | Nationally Determined Contributions Under the Paris Agreement: Revised Note by the Secretariat

An updated synthesis of climate action plans communicated in Nationally Determined Contributions confirms overall trends identified in a full report released in September 2021. The update provides the last information to inform global climate talks at COP26. It synthesizes information from the 165 latest available NDCs, representing all 192 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including the 116 new or updated NDCs communicated by 143 Parties on 12 October 2021. For these 143 Parties, total emissions are estimated to be about 9 per cent below the 2010 level by 2030. Some 71 Parties communicated a carbon neutrality goal around mid-century, with their emissions levels up to 88 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019. For all available NDCs of all 192 Parties, however, a sizable increase of about 16 per cent in global emissions is expected by 2030 compared to 2010. This may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century.

UNEP and others | 2021 Production Gap Report

20 October 2021

The 2021 Production Gap Report finds that despite increased climate ambitions and net-zero commitments, governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Over the next two decades, governments are collectively projecting an increase in global oil and gas production, and only a modest decrease in coal production. Taken together, plans and projections see global, total fossil fuel production rising to at least 2040. The report provides country profiles for 15 major producer countries, where most governments continue to provide significant policy support for fossil fuel production. They include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States. Recent scientific evidence clearly confirms that unless global coal, oil, and gas production start declining immediately and steeply, warming will exceed 1.5°C and result in catastrophic consequences 

WHO | Special Report on Climate Change and Health

11 October 2021

The Special Report on Climate Change and Health spells out the global health community’s prescription for climate action based on growing research that establishes inseparable links between climate and health. The report was launched with an open letter signed by over two thirds of the global health workforce – 300 organizations representing at least 45 million doctors and health professionals worldwide. They call on national leaders and climate talks to step up climate action. Unprecedented extreme weather events and other climate impacts are taking a rising toll on people’s lives and health. Increasingly frequent heatwaves, storms and floods kill thousands and disrupt millions of lives, while threatening health-care systems and facilities when they are needed most. Changes in weather and climate also undercut food security and drive up food-, water- and vector-borne diseases, such as malaria. Climate impacts are also negatively affecting mental health. 

WMO | 2021 State of Climate Services: Water

5 October 2021

A new report urges the world to wake up to the looming water crisis. Water-related hazards like floods and droughts are increasing because of climate change. The number of people suffering water stress is expected to soar, exacerbated by population increases and dwindling availability. But management, monitoring, forecasting and early warnings are fragmented and inadequate, while global climate finance efforts are insufficient. The State of Climate Services 2021: Water highlights the need for urgent action to improve cooperative water management, embrace integrated water and climate policies, and scale up investment in this precious commodity. It underpins all international goals on sustainable development, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

WMO | Climate Indicators and Sustainable Development: Demonstrating the Interconnections

22 September 2021

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 largely depends on addressing human-induced climate change. A new report demonstrates connections between global climate and the goals. It champions the need for greater international collaboration to both achieve the SDGs and limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. A story map highlights seven climate indicators with impacts across the global goals: carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, ocean acidification, ocean heat content, sea-ice extent, glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The report examines the implications of the latest data and scientific research on the state of the global climate for sustainable development, highlighting how the climate is already changing in ways that may impede progress on the SDGs.

UNFCCC | Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement

17 September 2021

A synthesis of nationally determined contributions required under the Paris Agreement indicates that while there is a clear trend in reducing greenhouse gas emissions over time, nations must urgently redouble climate efforts to prevent global temperature from crossing a dangerous threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The report includes information from all 191 Parties to the Paris Agreement based on their latest NDCs, including 86 updated or new NDCs submitted by 113 Parties. The new or updated NDCs cover about 49 per cent of global emissions. For the 113 Parties, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease by 12% in 2030 compared to 2010. This is an important step towards the 45 per cent reduction in 2030 required to keep to the 1.5 degree goal. NDCs of all 191 Parties, however, imply a sizable 16 per cent increase in global emissions in 2030. Without immediate action, this could lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

WMO | Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970 - 2019)

31 August 2021

A comprehensive new report finds that a disaster related to a weather, climate or water hazard occurred every day on average over the past 50 years, killing 115 people and causing $202 million in losses each day. The number of disasters increased by five times; economic losses rose sevenfold. But improved early warnings and disaster management reduced deaths by almost threefold. Cumulatively, more than 11,000 disasters were reported, with just over 2 million deaths and $3.64 trillion in losses. Weather, climate and water hazards accounted for 50 per cent of these disasters and nearly half of deaths, 91 per cent of which occurred in developing countries. Of the top 10 disasters, the largest human losses came from droughts, storms, floods and extreme temperature. Storms and floods generated the greatest economic costs. Three storms in 2017 alone accounted for a third of total economic losses from the top 10 disasters over the 50-year period.

UNICEF | The Climate Crisis Is a Child Rights Crisis

20 August 2021

At least 1 billion children live in 33 countries that are at extremely high risk from multiple climate and environmental shocks, according to the new Children’s Climate Risk Index. It offers the first comprehensive analysis of climate risk from a child’s perspective. The index ranks countries based on children’s exposure to shocks such as cyclones and heatwaves. It also considers children's vulnerability from gaps in essential services such as for education and health care. While nearly every child in the world is at risk from at least one climate or environmental hazard, the worst affected countries face multiple and often overlapping shocks that threaten to erode development progress and deepen child deprivation.

WMO | Hydromet Gap Report 2021

8 July 2021

Each year, the world could save an estimated 23,000 lives and gain $162 billion in benefits from improving weather forecasts, early warning systems and climate information, known as hydromet. That’s the conclusion of the first Hydromet Gap Report. It shows how far the world has to go to tap the benefits of effective weather and climate services, but also highlights how investments in multi-hazard early warning systems create benefits worth at least 10 times their costs. These are vital to build resilience to extreme weather, yet only 40 percent of countries currently have effective warning systems in place. Large gaps remain in vital data upon which these services depend, particularly in the least developed countries and small island developing States.

IRENA | World Energy Transitions Outlook

30 June 2021

Accelerating energy transitions in line with a livable climate could double the number of energy jobs, up to 122 million by 2050, according to a new report. It also finds a substantial boost to the global economy of 2.4 per cent over the expected growth of current plans within the next decade. The report predicts that renewables-based energy systems will instigate profound changes that will reverberate across economies and societies. Sharp adjustments in capital flows and a reorientation of investments are necessary to align energy with a positive economic and environmental trajectory. Forward-looking policies can accelerate transition, mitigate uncertainties, and ensure maximum benefits of energy transition. The annual investment of USD 4.4 trillion needed on average is high but feasible.

United Nations | Special Report on Drought 2021

17 June 2021

Drought affects millions of people, especially the most vulnerable. The impacts reach across societies, ecosystems and economies. With climate change increasing temperatures and disrupting rainfall, drought frequency, severity and duration are on the rise many regions. This requires urgent action to better manage risks and reduce devastating tolls on human lives and livelihoods. The Special Report on Drought 2021 empha¬sizes solutions in managing drought risks and calls for a sharper focus on prevention by addressing root drivers of drought and socioecological vulnerability. It stresses that risk prevention and mitigation have a far lower cost than reaction and response, and offers recommendations on how to achieve drought resilience.

REN21 | Renewables 2021 Global Status Report

15 June 2021

2020 could have been a gamechanger. With economies worldwide ravaged by COVID-19, primary energy demand fell by 4 per cent. Yet G20 countries, the planet’s biggest polluters, barely met or even missed their unambitious renewable energy targets. The Renewables 2021 Global Status Report shows that the world is nowhere near the necessary paradigm shift towards a clean, healthier and more equitable energy future, even as the benefits of renewables are indisputable. In many regions, it is now cheaper to build new wind or solar PV plants than to operate existing coal-fired power plants. The report suggests accelerating the uptake of renewable energy by making it a key performance indicator for every economic activity, budget and public purchase, and adopting clear targets and plans to shift to renewable energy and end fossil fuel use.

CDB and the UN Global Compact | Taking the Temperature

10 June 2021

New research finds that the G7 stock indexes are not currently on a 2°C pathway, much less the 1.5°C one that is so urgently needed. Fossil fuels are a key contributor to the emissions of all seven. Taking the Temperature: Assessing and scaling-up climate ambition in the G7 business sector also finds that indexes with a higher share of emissions covered by science-based targets for reductions result in lower overall temperature ratings. Companies with such targets are already cutting emissions at scale, and despite the findings, momentum for climate action in G7 countries is growing. Overall, 2020 was a milestone year for climate commitments, with the annual rate of adoption of science-based targets doubling compared to 2015-2019. The report maps four key levers that governments, investors and businesses can use to unlock breakthrough climate action through such targets.

IEA and others | Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2021

6 June 2021

More people have access to electricity than ever before but unless efforts are scaled up significantly in countries with the largest deficits, the world will still fall short of ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy by 2030 in line with the Sustainable Development Goals. While more than 1 billion people gained access to electricity globally over the last decade, COVID-19’s financial impact has made basic electricity services unaffordable for 30 million more people, the majority in Africa. Under current and planned policies, and given fallout from the pandemic, an estimated 660 million people would still lack access in 2030. The report examines how to bridge the gaps, such as by significantly scaling up renewable energy. It tracks international public financial flows to developing countries, finding these reached $14 billion for clean and renewable energy in 2018. But only 20 percent went to the least-developed countries, which are furthest from achieving SDG energy targets.

Climate and Clean Air Coalition and UNEP | Global Methane Assessment

The 2021 Global Methane Assessment shows that human-caused methane emissions can be reduced by up to 45 per cent this decade, avoiding nearly 0.3°C of global warming by 2045. Because methane is a key ingredient in ground-level ozone (smog), a powerful climate forcer and dangerous air pollutant, a 45 per cent reduction would prevent 260,000 premature deaths, 775,000 asthma-related hospital visits, 73 billion hours of lost labour from extreme heat and 25 million tonnes of crop losses annually. Most human-caused methane emissions come from three sectors: fossil fuels, waste and agriculture. The assessment identifies readily available solutions to reduce methane emissions. Half are not only low in cost, but would even make money, such as through reducing leaks in the oil and gas industry.

REN21 | Renewables in Cities 2021 Global Status Report

18 March 2021

Cities around the world are accelerating uptake of renewable energy, adopting targets and policies to spur local consumption and generation. This makes a critical contribution to climate action, since cities shelter more than half the global population and use three-quarters of global final energy consumption. REN21’s Renewables in Cities Global Status Report surveys the status and prospects of renewable energy in cities, detailing policies, markets, investments and citizen actions. It puts particular focus on renewables in public, residential and commercial buildings as well as public and private transport. Covering urban areas from towns to mega-cities, the report builds on more than 330 data contributors, and is endorsed by major renewable energy players and city networks.

UNEP and others | Are We Building Back Better?

10 March 2021

One year into the pandemic, recovery spending has fallen fall short of national commitments to shift to more sustainable investments. A new report finds only 18 per cent of announced recovery spending in 50 leading economies can be considered “green”. That totals about $368 billion of $14.4 trillion in COVID-induced spending on rescue and recovery in 2020. The report calls for governments to invest more sustainably, emphasizing that green recovery can bring stronger economic growth, while helping to meet global environmental targets and addressing structural inequality. To keep decades of progress against poverty from unwinding, low-income countries will require substantial concessional finance from international partners.

UNEP | Food Waste Index Report 2021

4 March 2021

People waste a substantial share of food, which is associated with up to 10 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Until now, the true scale of food waste and its impacts have not been well understood. Efforts to reduce it have been minimal, despite a global Sustainable Development Goal commitment to halving per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels. The Food Waste Index Report generates a new estimate of global food waste, and offers a methodology for countries to measure the problem and track national progress on reducing it.

UNFCCC | Initial NDC Synthesis Report

3 March 2021

The Initial NDC Synthesis Report shows nations must redouble efforts and submit stronger, more ambitious national climate action plans in 2021. That will be the only way to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise ideally by no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The report looks at 75 new or updated action plans – known as NDCs – covering around 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Together, they would cut emissions by less than 1 per cent by 2030 compared to 2010 levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated that emissions should be around 45 per cent lower.

Science Based Targets | Progress Report

6 January 2021

From Ambition to Impact: How companies are reducing emissions at scale with science-based targets is the first study to look at how setting science-based targets correlates with actually reducing corporate emissions. The study surveyed 338 companies with such targets, finding they have slashed combined emissions by 25 per cent since 2015. Annual emissions declined at a rate exceeding the one required to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Further, 2020 saw a milestone: the doubling of science-based climate commitments.

UNEP| Global Climate Litigation Report: 2020 Status Review

26 January 2021

The report provides an overview of the current state of climate change litigation globally, finding a rapid increase around the world. In 2017, 884 cases were brought in 24 countries. By July 2020, the number of cases had nearly doubled with at least 1,550 filed in 38 countries. The report shows how climate litigation is compelling governments and corporate actors to purse more ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation goals. It looks at the role of fundamental human rights connected to a safe climate, and outlines how cases are forcing greater climate disclosures and ending “corporate greenwashing”.

UNEP| Adaptation Gap Report 2020

14 January 2021

The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2020 looks at progress in planning for, financing and implementing adaptation, with a focus on nature-based solutions. It finds some advances in planning, but also huge gaps in finance for developing countries. Implementation of adaptation projects lags behind, with many not yet delivering real protection against climate impacts such as droughts, floods and sea-level rise. The report calls for closing the gaps fast, and prioritizing nature-based solutions, or locally appropriate actions offering benefits to people and nature.

UNEP | Emissions Gap Report 2020

9 December 2020

Go green with pandemic recovery packages. That’s the message of the 2020 Emissions Gap Report. It predicts that green recovery could shave emissions by 25 per cent by 2030, bringing the world closer to Paris Agreement goals to limit global warming. Despite a recent dip in emissions from lockdowns and slowing economies, temperatures are still rising at a record clip.

2 December 2020

The world must cut fossil fuel production by 6 per cent per year to avoid the worst of global warming. Instead, countries are projecting an average annual increase of 2 per cent. Those are among the sobering findings of the latest Production Gap Report, issued by leading research organizations and the United Nations. The report urges making COVID-19 recovery a turning point, where countries should steer investments into changing course to avoid “locking in” dependence on polluting coal, oil and gas.

UN | Report of the Secretary-General on the 2019 Climate Action Summit

11 December 2020

September’s Climate Action Summit delivered important new actions, a surge in climate momentum, and a clear destination: 45% emissions cuts by 2030 on the way to a carbon neutral world by 2050. The Secretary-General’s report on the outcomes of the Summit highlights the way forward in 2020, and outlines ten priority areas of action.

UNEP | Emissions Gap Report 2019

26 November 2019

As the world strives to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change, it is crucial to track progress towards globally agreed climate goals. For a decade, UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report has compared where greenhouse gas emissions are heading against where they need to be, and highlighted the best ways to close the gap.

UNDP | Global Outlook Report

18 September 2019

The UN Development Programme (UNDP) and UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been working together since 2014 to support countries in developing their national climate plans --Nationally Determined Contributions for the Paris Agreement or NDCs. This report is the most detailed review yet of momentum since the Paris Agreement and is designed to both inspire and inform the UN Climate Action Summit in New York on 23 September.

IPCC | Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

24 September 2019

The IPCC Special Report highlights the urgency of prioritizing timely, ambitious and coordinated action to address unprecedented and enduring changes in the ocean and cryosphere. Without a radical change in human behavior, hundreds of millions of people could suffer from rising sea levels, frequent natural disasters and food shortages, it warns.

The Special Report provides new evidence for the benefits of limiting global warming to the lowest possible level – in line with the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement. It also finds that strongly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting and restoring ecosystems, and carefully managing the use of natural resources would make it possible to preserve the ocean and cryosphere.

UNFCCC | Climate Action and Support Trends 2019

9 August 2019

The report “Climate Action and Support Trends” was prepared as UN Climate Change input to the UN Climate Action Summit, and it puts a spotlight on the progress made over the past 25 years since the inception of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This can help in scaling up further action, as governments prepare to submit the next round of national climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), by 2020.

IPCC | Climate Change and Land

8 August 2019

Land is already under growing human pressure and climate change is adding to these pressures. At the same time, keeping global warming to well below 2ºC can be achieved only by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors including land and food, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states in its latest report.

The report provides key scientific input into forthcoming climate and environment negotiations, such as the Conference of the Parties of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (COP14) in New Delhi, India in September and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference (COP25) in Santiago, Chile, in December.

UNEP | Emissions Gap Report 2018

10 January 2019

The flagship report from UN Environment is the definitive assessment of the 'emissions gap' – the gap between anticipated emission levels in 2030, compared to levels consistent with a 2°C / 1.5°C target. It found that global emissions are on the rise as national commitments to combat climate change come up short. But surging momentum from the private sector and untapped potential from innovation and green-financing offer pathways to bridge the emissions gap.

The New Climate Economy

The next 2-3 years are a critical window when many of the policy and investment decisions that shape the next 10-15 years will be taken. The New Climate Economy report found that leaders are already seizing the exciting economic and market opportunities of the new growth approach, while the laggards are not only missing out on these opportunities but are also putting us all at greater risk. More than US$26 trillion and a more sustainable planet are on offer, if everyone gets on board.

CMS | State of the World’s Migratory Species Report

12 February 2024

The first-ever State of the World’s Migratory Species report was launched by the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS). The report provides a global overview of the conservation status and population trends of migratory animals, combined with the latest information on their main threats and successful actions to save them. The findings underscore the need for greater action for all migratory species. It also shows that population and species-wide recoveries are possible, highlighting instances of successful policy change and positive action.

UNCCD | Global drought snapshot 2023

According to the report, ‘Global Drought Snapshot,’ launched by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), few if any hazard claims more lives, causes more economic loss and affects more sectors of societies than drought. The numbers presented in the publication speak volumes about the urgency of addressing this issue and highlight land restoration, sustainable land management and nature positive agricultural practices as critical aspects of building global drought resilience.

UNCCD | Drought in Numbers

Throughout the world, people are feeling the impacts of the climate and environmental crises most strongly through water: the land is drying up, fertile grounds are turning to dust and drought is prevailing. Since 1970, weather, climate and water hazards accounted for 50 percent of all disasters and 45 percent of all reported deaths. The UN Convention to Combat Desertification’s Drought in Numbers report looks at worrying trends in the duration and intensity of droughts and the devastating impact on ecological systems and human survival.

UNEP | Frontiers Report

17 February 2022

The Frontiers Report warns of intensifying environmental issues, including wildfires, urban noise pollution and phenological mismatches, that require greater attention.

UN WATER | The United Nations World Water Development Report

2 March 2022

A new report from UN Water looks at how groundwater is central to the fight against poverty, food and water security, the creation of decent jobs, socio-economic development, and the resilience of societies and economies to climate change. The report also describes the challenges and opportunities associated with the development, management, and governance of groundwater across the world.

GCRMN/ICRI | The Sixth Status of Corals of the World: 2020 Report

Coral reefs support at least 25 per cent of marine species and underpin the safety, coastal protection, well-being, food and economic security of hundreds of millions of people. They provide goods and services valued at $2.7 trillion per year. But coral reefs are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to global threats from climate change and ocean acidification, and local impacts from land-based pollution such as input of nutrients and sediments from agriculture, marine pollution, and overfishing and destructive fishing practices. The Status of Coral Reefs of the World report describes the status and trends of coral reefs. The sixth edition is the first based on the quantitative analysis of a global dataset spanning more than 40 years and comprising almost 2 million observations from more than 12,000 sites around the world.

World Bank | The Economic Case for Nature

A new World Bank report estimates that the collapse of select ecosystem services provided by nature – such as wild pollination, provision of food from marine fisheries and timber from native forests – could result in a decline in global gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.7 trillion annually by 2030. The report underscores the strong reliance of economies on nature, particularly in low-income countries. It highlights that sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia would suffer the greatest GDP contractions at 9.7 per cent and 6.5 per cent annually, respectively. This is due to a reliance on pollinated crops and, in sub-Saharan Africa, on forest products, as well as a limited ability to switch to other production and consumption options that would be less affected.

IPBES and IPCC | Biodiversity and Climate Change

9 June 2021

Unprecedented changes in climate and biodiversity, driven by human activities, have combined and increasingly threaten nature, human lives, livelihoods and well-being around the world. Biodiversity loss and climate change are both driven by human economic activities and mutually reinforce each other. A report by 50 of the world’s leading biodiversity and climate experts summarizes findings from the first-ever collaboration between the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Biodiversity and Climate Change finds that previous policies have largely tackled biodiversity loss and climate change independently of each other, but neither will be successfully resolved unless both are tackled together. Doing so while also considering social impacts offers opportunities to maximize benefits and meet global development goals.

UNEP | Making Peace with Nature

18 February 2021

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Facts and figures

• What is climate change?
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Cutting emissions

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Communicating climate futures: a multi-country study of how the media portray the IPCC scenarios in the 2021/2 Working Group reports

• Open access
• Published: 16 May 2024
• Volume 177 , article number  82 , ( 2024 )

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• James Painter   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4155-6243 1 ,
• Suzie Marshall 2 , 3 &
• Katherine Leitzell 2 , 3  

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The way governments and policy makers think about climate futures has a wide-ranging impact on how they formulate policy and plan for climate change impacts. In the lead-up to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC adopted a new scenarios framework that aimed to provide a fuller picture of the interacting elements and policy choices that affect climate change. However, these scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), are complex and difficult to communicate. Most audiences, including policy makers, receive much of their information about climate change from mainstream media, and particularly online news sites. We therefore examined the five most popular online news sites in the UK and the USA, five popular English-language news sites in India, English-language news media from a wide range of African countries, and the Reuters News agency. Based on manual content analysis to assess 252 articles, we identify several important findings, amongst them: in all countries, the media provide little detailed explanation of how scenarios are developed, very little mention of SSPs, and virtually no detailed explanations of them; generally, journalists use the words ‘projections’, ‘futures’, and ‘pathways’ when talking about the IPCC scenarios, although some usage of ‘predictions’ or ‘forecasts’ is apparent; contrary to previous research, there were very few doomsday narratives such as ‘only 12 years to act’. We conclude by drawing out some implications for more effective communication of the IPCC scenarios.

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1 Introduction

The IPCC is widely regarded as the most authoritative source on the physical science of climate change, its impacts in different geographical regions, and the options for tackling rising emissions. (O’Neill and Pidcock 2021 ) IPCC reports play a central role in summarizing and presenting the available science to policy makers and the wider public, creating media coverage, and raising public awareness of the risks and solutions. (Sanford et al. 2021 ) The IPCC has been a major contributor to national and international policy responses to the climate challenge, such as the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris agreement in 2015, as a result of its mandate to provide scientific input to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). (Sundqvist et al. 2018 ).

For its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which was published in 2021–23, the IPCC adopted a new scenarios framework that underpinned the Working Group (WG) reports. These scenarios were designed to provide plausible descriptions about how the future may develop, and according to the IPCC, are a vital part of the scientific literature on climate change, and an important part of the IPCC’s work. (IPCC 2023 ) In the Sixth Assessment cycle, the IPCC included much more information about socioeconomic futures than previous emission scenarios, and featured ‘multiple baseline worlds because underlying factors, such as population, technological, and economic growth, could lead to very different future emissions and warming outcomes, even without climate policy’. (Carbon Brief 2018 , p. 1) At an IPCC workshop on scenarios in April 2023, the communication imperative was recognized as one of the most important issues facing scientists in their efforts to inform decision makers. (IPCC 2023 , p. 10) However, these scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), are complex and difficult to communicate, and are often simply ignored or mentioned as an afterthought in communicating key findings on climate change.

There is little published scholarship on the communication of the scenarios. However, a survey of climate scientists in 2022 found that in the respondents’ view, scientists do poorly in explaining scenarios, whilst the media do even worse. Footnote 1 Although the survey was limited in scope, it clearly illustrated the main communication challenges: making clear the difference between the concepts of projection and prediction, and explaining uncertainty, complexity, and the timescale of scenarios, in simple, clear messages. For the media, the issues were i) a misunderstanding of predictions and projections, and what-if investigations; ii) an assumption that scenarios are recommendations or truth; iii) an (over) focus on high-impact/worst-case, apocalyptic scenarios; and iv) the lack of coverage of uncertainty, agency, and policy choices.

As in other areas of life such as military planning or financial investments, projections are statements or observations about what could happen and not predictions or forecasts of what will happen. The IPCC too uses projections based on scenarios of what could happen if certain assumed conditions prevail in the future – it is neither a prediction nor a forecast of what will happen independent of future conditions. As one climate scientist has summarized the difference, (MacCkracken 2001 , p.1):

‘A  prediction  is a probabilistic statement that something will happen in the future based on what is known today. A prediction generally assumes that future changes in related conditions will not have a significant influence. For decision makers, a prediction is a statement about an event that is likely to occur no matter what they do.

In contrast to a prediction, a  projection  specifically allows for significant changes in the set of "boundary conditions" that might influence the prediction, creating "if this, then that" types of statements. The set of boundary conditions that is used in conjunction with making a projection is often called a scenario, and each scenario is based on assumptions about how the future will develop. For a decision maker, a projection is an indication of a possibility, and normally of one that could be influenced by the actions of the decision maker.’

Most audiences, including policy makers, receive much of their information about climate change from mainstream media (Amdi 2020 ). Online news sites from major news organizations are the second most common source of climate information after television news and documentaries in many countries of the world. For this reason, we analyzed a wide range of popular news sites in a selected number of countries from the Global North and Global South. As far as we are aware, no previous study has focused on the reporting of IPCC scenarios, in part because the media in general have not discussed them or the concepts underpinning them in great detail, except in a few cases of specialist coverage. Footnote 2

1.1 Climate scenarios and the IPCC

To project how the climate will respond to rising greenhouse gases (GHGs), climate models need projections of future emissions. These scenarios have evolved significantly since the inception of the IPCC in 1988, driven in large part by the needs of the IPCC and the climate science community. (IPCC 2000 ) While emissions scenarios in the first IPCC reports were comparatively simple projections of possible trajectories of GHGs, based on simple narratives and the output of energy systems models (IPCC 1992 ), today’s scenarios were developed with the aim of enabling a more complete assessment of not just temperature rise, but also the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation strategies, possible tradeoffs, and synergies. (Van Vuuren et al. 2014 ) Developed by an international, interdisciplinary cohort of scientists, the SSPs are narratives of possible future worlds that include demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. (O’Neill et al. 2017 ).

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report was the first to use the SSPs framework, but these climate scenarios and pathways were used differently across the three working groups. (Pirani et al. 2024 ) The WGI report, published in August 2021, used a combination of SSPs and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to define five illustrative emissions trajectories that were meant to cover the full range of possible emissions, including more detailed inputs of air pollution, land use change, and others, and these were used in the modeling exercises that fed into the report. (IPCC 2021 ) According to the IPCC, the ‘Emissions vary between scenarios depending on socio-economic assumptions, levels of climate change mitigation and, for aerosols and non-methane ozone precursors, air pollution controls.’ (ibid., p. 12) The five scenarios included two low-emissions scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) in line with temperature targets of the Paris Agreement, a middle-of-the-road one (SSP2-4.5), a scenario with no additional climate policy (SSP3-7.0), and a high-emissions scenario intended to cover the highest possible emissions pathways (SSP5-8.5). (See Table  1 and Figure S2 in the Supplementary Material).

In contrast, the WGII report on Impacts and Adaptation (IPCC 2022a ), published in March 2022, used scenarios inconsistently across its chapters – largely because the SSPs had not yet been taken up by much of the research assessed in that report.

The WGIII report on Mitigation (IPCC 2022b ), published in April 2022, examined over a thousand scenarios for possible mitigation futures and their consequences for global temperatures, produced by the research community. These scenarios differ from the WGI scenarios in that they provide a ‘pathway’ by which a particular temperature goal may be reached. Like the WGI scenarios, these emissions pathways are described as illustrative and not policy prescriptive, but their detailed nature have opened them up to criticism for being unrealistic, not comprehensive, or biased, and led some to argue that they are less authoritative than WGI scenarios. Footnote 3 The scenario development process for the WGIII report was also criticized for being insufficiently inclusive of scientists in the Global South. Footnote 4

Indeed, IPCC climate scenarios in general have faced a variety of criticisms, which have also informed their continued evolution. These range from methodological, to process, to transparency, to policy relevance. (Pedersen et al. 2022 ; Carton 2020 ) There are also a variety of technical points of contention around scenarios, such as the reliance in very low emissions scenarios on negative emissions technologies which have not yet been proven at scale. (Hilaire et al. 2019 ) Finally, it has also been pointed out that ‘knowledge-making about future pathways is never neutral, but is instead inescapably political’. (Beck and Mahoney 2018, p. 5).

1.2 The IPCC, policy makers and climate scenarios

A body of research shows how IPCC reports are a very important source of reliable climate information to policy makers of distinct types in different parts of the world. (Hermansen et al. 2021 ; Howarth and Painter 2016 ; O’Neill and Pidcock 2021 ; Pathak et al. 2021 ) However, the reports have been criticized for not including practitioner-based evidence, which would make the reports a more relevant source of information for decision-making (Viner and Howarth 2014 ), for not exploring sufficiently the possibilities of co-produced knowledge (Howarth et al. 2022 ), and for not using language and Figures more understandable by policy makers (Barkemeyer et al. 2016 ; Budescu et al. 2009 ; Hutchins 2020 ; Morelli et al. 2021 , de Bruine et al. 2024 ). There is also a considerable amount of scholarly literature on the effective communication of climate science in general to different audiences (e.g. Dahlstrom 2014 , Smith et al. 2014 ), the better communication of IPCC reports (Shaw et al. 2018 ; O’Neill and Pidcock 2021 ), and the advantages of locally-relevant narratives or storytelling for engagement with the IPCC reports by different audiences (Howarth et al. 2020 ).

However, there is only a limited amount of literature on the general communication of climate scenarios, such as the research by Sheppard et al. ( 2021 ), who studied the efficacy of the Local Climate Change Visioning Project in British Columbia, Canada. The researchers collaboratively visualized possible local climate change scenarios, including environmental impacts and community responses, and found considerable potential value in such activities to enhance engagement and learning. Liguori et al. ( 2021 ) concluded that in the DRY (Drought Risk and You) project in the UK, by co-designing and facilitating storyboarding workshops with local stakeholders and scientists, scenarios could be developed that were not only scientifically accurate, but also reflected local interests, aspirations, and practices.

As far as we are aware, no research has been published on how the specific IPCC scenarios can be conceptualized and operationalized in practice to aid effective communication and practice by different types of policy makers, the private sector, NGOs, the media, and the wide range of publics. There are some practical guides, toolkits and scenario simulators available for scenario communication, particularly to non-specialist audiences, such as those produced by the Senses project Footnote 5 and Climate Interactive, Footnote 6 and talks given by science communication experts such as Susan Hassol. Footnote 7 Moreover, the IPCC has published a list of recommendations for better scenario communication (IPCC 2023 , p. 4):

Conduct a targeted survey on perception and use of scenarios from the AR6 cycle.

Develop and provide accessible IPCC explainers on scenarios.

Develop a guidance note on inclusive, co-developed scenario elaboration.

Build and cultivate a network of trusted intermediaries to communicate scenarios.

Strengthen institutionalized science communication experts throughout the IPCC process.

These will be discussed in more detail in the Conclusions.

1.3 IPCC communication and the media

In general, the news media remain essential for individuals, policy makers and society in general to understand, critically evaluate, and act on tackling climate change (Metag et al. 2017 ). Legacy media are (still) seen as the most important sources of information about climate change for many members of the public (Amdi 2020 , Guenther et al. 2022 ). IPCC reports are international policy events which drive a large amount of media attention, and climate coverage often peaks around their publication dates. (Painter, 2013 ) For example, coverage of the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C (SR15 report) in October 2018 contributed to an overall increase in climate change stories by 43% throughout the world from September 2018. (Boykoff and Pearman 2019 ) However, the amount of coverage can vary from country to country, with some research showing, for example, that there was more coverage of the IPCC reports in Germany than Australia and India in the period 1996 to 2010. (Schäfer et al 2014 ).

The IPCC uses a variety of methods to communicate its main findings. (O’Neill and Pidcock 2021 ) Of particular importance are the summaries for policy makers (SPMs) for each IPCC report, which play a key role in transferring knowledge from experts in one field to policy makers and experts in other fields (Barkemeyer et al. 2016 ). They have a central task of communicating the headline scientific messages from the IPCC to policy makers and publics around the world, particularly via the news media (Kunelius et al. 2017 ). Previous research shows that journalists (normally) closely follow these IPCC prompts, and in particular they quote the SPMs, press releases, the IPCC representatives at the media launch, and social media posts and tweets. (Sanford et al. 2021 ) Although most journalists follow such prompts, they also shape or frame the way IPCC reports are presented and received by audiences and policy makers (Hulme 2009 ; Painter 2013 , 2014 ; Pearce et al. 2014 ; O’Neill et al. 2015 ; Painter et al. 2023 ).

A common framing of the IPCC reports journalists have used in the past has been a predominance of apocalyptic, doom-based, or worst-case scenarios. Specific studies of the 2007 AR4 and 2013/4 AR5 reports show that print and/or broadcast media coverage of the IPCC’s 2007 was notable for the language of catastrophe, fear, and disaster (Hulme 2009 ; O’Neill et al. 2015 ; Painter 2017 ). More recently, analysis of the media response to the IPCC’s SR1.5 report of October 2018 showed that numerous articles chose to cite 2030 as a deadline for action, Footnote 8 which was a headline-driven interpretation of the IPCC’s statement that global emissions had to be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 in order to avoid passing 1.5 °C (Boykoff and Pearman 2019 ). The so-called ‘12-year deadline’ narrative is an example of a ‘binary framing’ by which stark alternatives are presented as the only options or likely outcomes. It became a clarion call for some politicians and climate activist groups like Extinction Rebellion to urge rapid and radical action, Footnote 9 but prompted push back from some IPCC authors as a misinterpretation of the presentation of scenarios in the 1.5 report. Footnote 10

Given the importance of scenarios to the IPCC reports, journalists covering them face a number of challenges: understanding them, explaining them accurately to their audiences, and making them relevant and urgent both for policy makers and for the general public alike. Across the media in the Global North and South, research has shown that common frames are used to portray climate futures, some focusing on the distant threats, whilst others emphasize solutions and opportunities. (Guenther et al. 2023 ) So another challenge is to get the balance right between reporting the possible negative impacts but not to resort to too much doom-mongering - instead, emphasize the array of possible solutions available.

Audience reception can be obfuscated by the various forms of contestation the IPCC reports often attract. For example, O’Neill et al. ( 2015 ) found that in television and print reporting in the US and UK, the WGI of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013 was often contested and politicized. Painter et al. ( 2023 ) concluded that this had changed for the coverage of the AR6’s WGI in 2021. Whereas skepticism about the science of climate change was still prevalent in right-wing television channels in Australia, Brazil, Sweden, the UK and the USA, this was largely absent from mainstream channels with large audiences such as the ABC in Australia, and the BBC in the UK.

Moreover, organized skeptical groups have often attacked the IPCC and its reports for what they call ‘climate alarmism’, or exaggerating the potential impacts of climate change in their scenarios. This has been described as a form of climate obstructionism that can either take the form of downplaying the impacts (‘climate impacts are not bad’) or of accusing the ‘climate movement’ (made up of the media, environmentalists or scientists) of being unreliable due to their alleged alarmism or bias. (Coan et al. 2021 ) An example of this is the commentary by the American Enterprise Institute published in September 2021 which started with the sentence ‘The sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the < … > (IPCC) continues a long history of alarmist predictions ( emphasis added ) with the deeply dubious statement that human-caused climate change has now become “irreversible”.’ (Wallison and Zycher 2021 ) In the specific case of scenarios, some niche right-leaning publications have criticized the assumptions behind the SSP5-8.5 (RCP 8.5), Footnote 11 based on analysis by Pielke et al. ( 2022 ), or attacked the ‘dire forecasts’ in the use of SSPs found in the UK Met Office report of January 2022. Footnote 12

1.4 Research questions:

Given this context, we devised the following research questions:

Does media coverage of the IPCC reports refer to the scenarios considered by the IPCC?

How does the media describe or characterize different scenarios, and what words do they use to talk about them?

Do the media report the range of scenarios and possible futures, or are they using a more binary framing (such as deadline narratives)?

Are scenarios being discredited in the media, and/or used by skeptical voices to question the IPCC science for alleged climate alarmism?

Do the media mention and/or describe accurately the uncertainty in the scenarios?

2 Materials and method

We first chose the five most popular online news sites in two countries, the UK and the USA. The sites were selected according to online survey results found in the 2022 Reuters Institute’s Digital News Report (Newman 2022 ). The two countries were chosen as their legacy media organizations have a strong worldwide presence in English (particularly online); US and UK media titles are influential amongst policy makers outside of their home countries; and the two countries are major players in international climate change negotiations. (Kristiansen et al. 2020 ) The ten titles were the BBC news online, the Guardian, Sky news online, the Telegraph and the Mail (for the UK), and the New York Times, the Washington Post, CNN online, the Wall Street Journal and Fox News online (for the USA). This also gave us a variety of media types (broadsheet, tabloid, and broadcast) and political orientation (left-leaning, right-leaning, neutral/impartial). We then added the Reuters news agency as it is known to cover the IPCC reports extensively, and many media outlets around the world rely on the service for their coverage.

In order to widen the geographical base of our sample, we added coverage in the English-language press in Africa, and five popular English-language news online sites in India according to the same 2022 Digital News Report , namely India Today , Times of India , Hindustan Times , The Hindu , and the Indian Express/New Indian Express . The Factiva search in ‘Africa by region’ gave us a wide range of African titles (28) in English covering the IPCC reports, which we did not reduce in number in order to maintain a good representation of Africa in our results. Tables 1S and 2S in the Supplementary Material show the titles and distribution of articles in all four countries or regions, and the Reuters news agency.

We looked at the period of 48 to 72 h after the publication of each WG report, which in this case meant 9th and 10th August 2021 for WGI, 28th February and 1st March 2022 for WGII, and 4th, 5th, and 6th April 2022 for WGIII. The search words were ‘IPCC’ OR ‘UN’ AND ‘Climate’ for the UK and US sample, and ‘IPCC’ for the African and Indian sample. The search engine Factiva was used. These searches yielded a large corpus of 120 articles for the US, UK, Reuters, and 132 articles for Africa and India (after several articles had been discarded for being repeats, trails, video reports, or insufficiently focused on the IPCC reports). Table 2 summarizes the distribution of the 252 articles by country, region and Reuters.

A detailed code book with 32 variables was devised to provide answers to the research questions (RQs) outlined above—first deductively from the literature and RQs, and then inductively from the sample. Manual content analysis was then applied to each article (see SM for code book ). The code book was divided into three main sections: the presence of scenarios and the language used; explaining scenarios; and other issues such as the presence of binary framing or criticism from skeptic groups or individuals. One researcher coded all the articles from the US, UK and Reuters. The second researcher coded Africa and India. Coder reliability was established between the two coders by the joint coding of an initial six articles from the UK sample. Of the 32 variables being coded, 24 showed 100% agreement. Using the website http://dfreelon.org/recal/recal2.php , of the remaining variables, four showed 83.3% agreement, and four showed 66.7% agreement. Because of these high scores for agreement, no more joint coding was carried out. The scores for Cohen’s Kappa ranged between 0 (three variables), 0.4 (three variables) and 0.571 (two variables). The score of 0 for three of the variables was explained by the first coder coding all six articles as 0 and the second coder coding one or two of them as 1. Some of the coding differences were due to one coder including the text around graphics, whilst the other did not, and others due to differences over whether to code all mentions of ‘projections’ as in ‘sea level rise projections’, or just projections related to temperature increases. Discrepancies were ironed out or the text of the code book was discussed, clarified and re-written to ensure less ambiguity in its interpretation.

The limitations to this study are that firstly, we only coded for presence, not salience (i.e. when scenarios appear in headlines or opening sentences) or dominance (i.e. how much does the discussion of scenarios dominate an article), which would have given a greater sense of how much prominence journalists assigned to the reporting of scenarios. Secondly, despite the coder reliability testing, there may have been different interpretations of the code book and articles by the two coders. Thirdly, the inclusion of more countries and languages for the selection of media analysis would have provided more complete results. Finally, we only assessed the media coverage of scenarios at the launch of the WG reports, but outside of those dates IPCC scenarios are occasionally used and discussed at length by the mainstream media, such as by the prominent climate author and commentator, David Wallace-Wells, in a long feature in the New York Times of 26 October 2022. Footnote 13

3 Results and discussion

3.1 press releases.

Given the importance of the IPCC media outreach work mentioned above, we first examined the text of three press releases publicizing the WG reports. The WGI press release Footnote 14 did not mention ‘scenarios’ or SSPs in the main body of the text, but ‘project[x]’ did appear a couple of times. In contrast, SSPs (175 times), scenarios (115 times), futures (31), pathways (7 times), and projections (17 times) were featured strongly throughout the SPM, particularly in Box SPM.1. Footnote 15 There was no mention of predictions or forecasts.

In similar fashion, the WGII press release Footnote 16 did not mention ‘scenarios’ or SSPs in the main body of the text, but the word ‘projected’ did appear once. Scenarios (36 times), pathways and futures (27 each), projections (12 times), and SSPs (25 times) appeared in the WGII SPM, and particularly in Box SPM.1. Footnote 17 There was no mention of predictions or forecasts.

The press release for WGIII Footnote 18 mentioned scenarios once, but not SSPs. Scenarios were mentioned 111 times and SSPs 26 times in the SPM, and particularly in Box SPM.1, called ‘Assessment of Modelled Global Emission Scenarios’. Footnote 19 Projections (85) and pathways (243) were also mentioned frequently, projections (8) and futures (3) less so. Predictions or forecasts did not appear except in the statement within Box SPM.1 that [these are] ‘quantitative projections and are neither predictions nor forecasts’. (p.25).

3.2 Presence of the word ‘scenario’ and idea of multiple futures or scenarios

We then examined the content of the 252 articles. The word ‘scenario’ and the concept or idea of a range of scenarios does appear regularly across our sample, particularly in the reporting of WGI. The word ‘scenario’ sometimes appeared just in phrases like ‘worst-case scenario’, rather than in the context of any detailed explanation. The concept or idea of a range of scenarios could be present explicitly or strongly implicitly, without necessarily mentioning the number of scenarios. Figure  1 gives the results for each WG report, and shows how nearly half (48.5%) of the articles covering WGI included the word, which dropped to 22% for WGII and III.

Presence of word ‘scenario’

In similar fashion, the idea or concept of scenarios was present in 55% of articles covering WGI, which dropped to 38% for WGII and 19.5% for WGIII (see Fig.  2 ). The high figure for WGII was mostly due to the reporting from Africa including climate change impacts at a range of temperatures. For example: ‘Up to 18% of all those species assessed on land will be at high risk of extinction if the world warms 2℃ by 2100. If the world warms up to 4℃, roughly every second plant or animal species assessed will be threatened’ Footnote 20 or ‘The report found: up to 3 billion people are projected to experience chronic water scarcity due to droughts at 2℃ warming, and up to 4 billion at 4℃ warming, mostly across the subtropics to mid-latitudes; projected flood damages may be up to two times higher at 2℃ warming and up to 3.9 times higher at 3℃, when compared with damages at 1.5℃’. Footnote 21

Presence of concept of range of scenarios

3.3 Explanation of scenarios and SSPs

Right across our sample, there was little detailed explanation of how scenarios are calculated, very little mention of the specific term ‘SSPs’, and virtually no detailed explanations of the SSPs. Moreover, there was only one example in our sample (in The Hindustan Times ) of how SSPs are different to previous calculations of pathways (RCPs). Footnote 22 The few times in which detailed explanations did appear usually occurred in background or ‘explainer’ articles, and not in general reporting.

For example, SSPs are mentioned in only four articles from the WGI sample from US/UK/Reuters and an explanation of them appears only in two; three of the four mentions are found in graphs, and one in a detailed ‘explainer’ from Reuters with the headline ‘The U.N. climate report's five futures – decoded’. Footnote 23 None appear in the reporting of WGII and WGIII from this sample. SSPs are not mentioned at all in the African corpus, and only in three articles in the Indian sample, two of which are found in the WGI coverage, with the description of them both times as ‘possible paths of growth human societies could follow over the next century’, and one in the WGII coverage to explain some accompanying graphics.

Two examples of a detailed explanation of scenarios/SSPs can be found on the day of the release of the WGI report (9 August) in Fox News online (based on an Associated Press article by climate correspondent Seth Borenstein), in which he writes that.

‘The report described five different future scenarios based on how much the world reduces carbon emissions. They are: a future with incredibly large and quick pollution cuts; another with intense pollution cuts but not quite as massive; a scenario with moderate emissions; a fourth scenario where current plans to make small pollution reductions continue; and a fifth possible future involving continued increases in carbon pollution.’ Footnote 24

Or ii) in the Reuters explainer mentioned above,

‘The scenarios are the result of complex calculations that depend on how quickly humans curb greenhouse gas emissions. But the calculations are also meant to capture socioeconomic changes in areas such as population, urban density, education, land use and wealth. [..] Each scenario is labeled to identify both the emissions level and the so-called Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, or SSP, used in those calculations. Here’s how to understand each one: FIVE FUTURES – DECODED: SSP1-1.9: The IPCC’s most optimistic scenario, this describes a world where global CO2 emissions are cut to net zero around 2050.’

It is worth pointing out that Figures at times appeared in the news online coverage that depicted either the five scenarios or SSPs in visual detail. One example can be found in Fig. 1S in the SM which is an example of the BBC news website on 9 August 2021 adapting material from the WGI’s SPM to reduce the amount of information presented and make the five scenarios under different temperature increases relatively easy to follow. Footnote 25 A different example (see Fig. 2S ) can be found in the Mail online coverage on 8 August 2021 where the Figure they publish depicting future emissions Footnote 26 contains the acronym SSPs and is an exact reproduction of the IPCC’s Figure found in the SPM, Box SPM.1, p. 13. Footnote 27

We then looked at the presence of any explanation of how the different scenarios or SSPs are calculated. This could range from a general, short explanation (such as Sky News reporting that ‘The IPCC investigated five future scenarios based on how much carbon dioxide the world continues to emit and what we do to compensate’ Footnote 28 ), to a very detailed explanation of the different SSPs. An example of the latter can be found in the Hindustan Times , Footnote 29 which explained both RCPs and SSPs in the following manner:

“RCP stands for representative correction pathway, which is a trajectory of greenhouse gases assumed by IPCC for modelling. RCP 2.6, 4.5 and RCP 8.5 represent three futures, based on the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions. The numbers themselves are in units of watt/square metre. The numbers are the difference between the incoming and outgoing energy on Earth; a high level of greenhouse gases means higher incoming energy. SSP stands for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. SSP 1 is a scenario for sustainability focused growth and equality; SSP 2 is status quo; SSP 3 is where every country does its own thing; SSP4 is a scenario where inequality spikes; and SSP5 is one where there is rapid and uncontrolled growth in energy use. The SSPs are used in consonance with RCPs to represent different possible futures.”

Finally, an explanation for the calculations behind the scenarios was present in a weak or strong form in a total of 18 articles (only 7% of the total sample), with all but one of them found in the coverage of WGI, and the other in WGII. None was found in the WGIII reporting.

3.4 Use of language: predictions/forecasts compared to futures/pathways/projections

Figure  3 shows the results from the coding of the presence of different words to describe or accompany the scenarios for each of the WG reports. We coded for the presence of the word ‘Path(ways)’, ‘Futures’, ‘Forecasts’, ‘Predictions’, ‘Projections’, ‘Visions’, and ‘Other’ (when used in reference to climate scenarios). Given the frequent presence of the words ‘projections’, ‘pathways’, and ‘futures’ in the SPMs (see Sect.  1 above), it is not surprising that these feature strongly in the reporting. But ‘predictions’ and ‘forecasts’ also appear relatively frequently in WGI and II reporting (24% and 18%, respectively), and particularly in the WGI coverage in the UK and USA. For example a Guardian article of 9 August Footnote 30 says that ‘Under the high and very high emissions scenarios outlined in the report, global heating is predicted (emphasis added) to reach 3.6C and 4.4C above pre-industrial levels respectively, by the end of the century’, or Sky News on 10 August reports that ‘the IPCC predicts (emphasis added) —even under the best case scenario—warming will continue for several years to come’. Footnote 31

Presence of ‘prediction/forecast’ vs. ‘future/pathway/projection’

It is worth adding that there was no use of the word ‘visions’ anywhere in the sample. Other phrases that did appear occasionally about the future scenarios included ‘we are on track/course for’, ‘outcomes’, and ‘options’/’choices’ particularly in the reporting of WGIII.

3.5 Descriptors for the scenarios

We looked at a variety of descriptors used in conjunction with the scenarios. The first category was phrases describing the different scenarios such as low/medium/high-range emission scenarios, worst/best (case) scenarios, and pessimistic/optimistic. As can be seen from Fig.  4 , WGI reporting covered a range of such descriptors, with low/medium/high the most frequently present (23%), and pessimistic/optimistic the least (13%). In WGII reporting, low/medium/high was also the most present, but for WGIII it was the worst/best (case) scenario. Pessimistic/optimistic were not present in WGIII, and hardly present in WGII.

Incidence of scenario descriptors in the coverage of WGI, WGII and WGIII

We then looked at the number of scenarios that were discussed, if they were mentioned at all. As might be expected, WGI coverage often (21 times) presented five scenarios, frequently in a figure. The number of scenarios was left vaguer in WGII and WGIII reportage: an article may outline one, two, or three scenarios, but an overall number of calculated scenarios was seldom given.

Finally, we coded for the timelines used in conjunction with the presence of scenarios, such as 2030, 2050/mid-century, or end of century. In general, for the UK/US/Reuters sample and Africa, there was more mention of time phrases in the coverage of the WGI report such as mid-century and end of century. There was much less in WGII and III, and with a few exceptions, most reports in the US and UK sample of WGIII did not clarify the timeline for the various scenarios. So, readers might have been left in confusion regarding the timing by which these various scenarios could be reached (e.g., warming of 3 °C by the end of the century was often discussed as ‘warming of 3C’).

3.6 Binary framing

We divided our coding into articles which clearly mentioned a hard deadline narrative and those describing a softer binary framing. We defined the first as including i) mention of a specific year as a deadline (e.g. 2030) or a specific number of years to go before a deadline for action is reached together with ii) mention of such phrases as doom, catastrophe, climate disaster, or ‘end of the world as we know it’ etc. Examples would be ‘The world is about 18 years away from global warming of 1.5 °C, the line that must not be crossed if catastrophic changes in climate and damage to ecosystems are to be averted Footnote 32 ’, or (by way of rejection of the concept), ‘ “The 1.5C threshold is an important threshold politically, of course, but from a climatic point of view, it is not a cliff edge—that once we go over 1.5C, suddenly everything will become very catastrophic,” explained Dr Amanda Maycock, from the University of Leeds, and one of the authors of the new report.’ Footnote 33

We defined the second as a softer presentation of two alternatives, such as: 'Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all’ (a direct quote from WGII’s SPM, paragraph D.5.3), or ‘It’s now or never if we want to limit global warming to 1.5 °C’, contained in a quote from WGIII Co-Chair Jim Skea in the accompanying press release. A third example would be the phrase found in the reporting of the WGIII report in the BBC and Guardian (but not much elsewhere) that ‘global emissions of CO2 would need to peak within three years (at the latest by 2025) to stave off the worst impacts’. Footnote 34

Our key finding is that the hard deadline narrative was present in less than 10% of our sample, and much less than we thought given the reporting of the IPCC’s 1.5 2018 report, and the frequent mention there of variants on ‘12 years to go before catastrophe’. For example, in the UK/US/Reuters sample, the deadline narrative was present in only four articles in the WGI coverage, in each case to be rejected; it was present in three articles in the WGII coverage, such as in the phrase ‘delay means death’ (a quote from the UN Secretary General), and not at all in WGIII reporting. For the African and Indian sample, it was present in 15 articles across the three reports. However, in several cases, the mention of the hard deadline was present only to reject it or debunk it, such as in the quote above from IPCC author Dr. Maycock. If we remove the cases of rejection, then the total presence of the deadline narrative drops to only 15 articles, or 6% of the total sample.

In contrast, the soft binary framing was present in 15 of the total sample of 103 articles in the WGI coverage, but for WGII this rose to 29 (out of 67 articles) and for WGIII 26 articles (out of 82). For WGII, the binary framing was mostly variations on the ‘disappearing window’, and for WGIII it was often the ‘now or never’ quote (present in six articles). For example, the Guardian headline of 4 April 2022 was ‘IPCC report: ‘now or never’ if world is to stave off climate disaster’, which is a clear binary narrative with its own added description of a ‘climate disaster’. Figure  5 shows the breakdown for the presence of a binary narrative across the entire sample, broken down by country and WG report.

Presence of binary framing

3.7 Contestation

There was no criticism or questioning of the scenarios in any of the articles we monitored. This included the absence of organized skeptical or denialist groups who may have sought to criticize the scenarios as part of a broader strategy of undermining the credibility of the IPCC. This is in line with other research looking at broader coverage of the media reporting of the AR6 WG reports, which shows little presence of evidence skeptics (who dispute the science) on mainstream television channels’ coverage of WGI (Painter et al. 2023 ).

There was very little doubting of the credibility of the IPCC in our sample, except for one article in the Indian media, which questioned the use of the 1980 baseline and the choice of scenarios that do not ‘consider global equity and regionally differentiated mitigation based on principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities’. Footnote 35

3.8 Uncertainty

The word ‘uncertain’, ‘uncertainty’ or ‘uncertainties’ in association with the models or scenarios very rarely appeared in our sample, and the concept was equally rarely described or even mentioned. However, there are many other indicators of a framing of uncertainty, such as the presence of words like ‘may’, ‘suggest’, ‘likely’, ‘could’ and ‘possible’; uncertainty parameters or a range of projections; the shortcomings of computer models; or the presence of ‘dueling experts’ suggesting contestation (see Painter 2013 , Appendix 1 and 2). We did not code for these other indicators, except we did note the regular presence of words depicting likelihood (‘likely’ or ‘very likely’) in the articles.

We coded for the presence of the word ‘must’ to see if there was any strong picture emerging of the more frequent use of a more prescriptive tone to the coverage in WGIII as to the solutions that need to be adopted, or for the need for action, as in the phrase for example, ‘the world must cut energy emissions between 38 and 52 percent in the next eight years’. In the reporting of the WGIII report in the UK and US sample, the use of the ancillary verb ‘must’ did appear frequently (26 times) as in the phrase, ‘global emissions must peak by 2025 to stave off the worst impacts of the climate crisis’.

However, when we compared the usage across the WG reports, we found that in the African sample, the word ‘must’ appeared the most in WGIII (14 articles), but this was not noticeably higher than its appearance in WGII (12 articles) or WGI (11 articles). Likewise, no clear picture emerged from the Indian sample, as the word appeared in six articles in WGIII, but also in six articles in WGI and in four articles for WGII.

With some exceptions noted above, no strong differences were apparent between the country samples. There were however, some differences in the use of terms between media outlets: for example, in the Reuters articles about WGI, the word ‘scenario’ was present in 6 out of 7 articles, in the BBC sample it was in 4 out of 8, and in the Guardian only 2 out of 9. It is not possible to ascertain if these differences were a result of an editorial policy, without carrying out additional interview work.

4 Conclusions and recommendations

In answer to our five sets of research questions above, the media in our sample do use the word ‘scenario’ and the concept of a range of scenarios regularly, particularly in the reporting of WGI, where they both appear in around half of our sample. The concept and brief labelling of the five scenarios are also often found in the graphs and Figures accompanying the text. In general, journalists do use more accurate words like ‘projections’, ‘futures’, and ‘pathways’ when talking about the IPCC scenarios, although some usage of ‘predictions’ or ‘forecasts’ is apparent. Contrary to previous research about the coverage of IPCC reports, there were very few doomsday narratives such as ‘only 12 years to act’. There was very little contestation around the scenarios and models, with no presence of any organized skeptical group or their representatives challenging the scenarios. Finally, the uncertainty surrounding scenarios was rarely spelt out by the use of the word ‘uncertain’, ‘uncertainty’ or ‘uncertainties’, although other ways of depicting uncertainty was present.

However, in all countries, the media in our sample provided little detailed explanation of how scenarios are developed, very little mention of SSPs, and virtually no detailed descriptions of them. Such explanations tend to appear in specialist coverage. In part, this can be explained by journalists in general finding it difficult to report on the complexity and uncertainty inherent in climate science (Painter 2013 ), the primacy of journalistic norms of personalization, dramatization, and novelty driving a lot of climate coverage (Boykoff and Boykoff 2007 ), and the lack of editorial space necessary to explain scenarios when journalists have to think of short phrases, headlines or images designed to improve shareability on social media (Dwyer and Martin 2017 ). It may well take another round of IPCC reports highlighting the importance of scenarios for there to be more detailed coverage or discussion in the media.

As mentioned above, journalists closely follow the IPCC prompts found in press releases, SPMs, press conference, and posts or tweets on social media. So, spelling out simple, repeated messages (e.g. that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts but projections, or that scenarios do not depict ‘cliff-edge narratives’, or that ‘scenarios are helpful for illustrating the urgent choices we face’) would aid effective communication of what IPCC scenarios are and what they are not. It is worth speculating why the use of ‘prediction’ or ‘forecast’ was much lower in the WGIII sample (2%). This may in part be related to the statement in the Box SPM.1 in the WGIII SPM (in contrast to the WGI and WGII SPMs) on scenarios that [these are] ‘quantitative projections and are neither predictions nor forecasts’. (p.25). Footnote 36

The IPCC Figures and Charts found in the Boxes describing scenarios in the SPMs and provided in the IPCC slide decks were not widely used by the media in our sample, so it may be worth thinking through what appropriately simplified, but never inaccurate, charts, figures and animations based on IPCC findings will aid the depiction in the media of the variety of scenarios, and the assumptions behind them, without overloading the non-expert audience with too much information. In this context, the work by Morelli et al. ( 2021 ) is particularly apposite, as they emphasize certain elements in the co-designing of the IPCC’s visual information including practical tools, a flexible method, and social science expertise to understand the needs of users, in order to recognize the value of a visual story, whilst retaining scientific integrity. The IPCC itself stresses the importance of ‘using simple storylines, where possible supported by clear and easy to understand graphics, to effectively communicate scenarios about a range of possible futures’. (IPCC 2023 , p. 44).

Calling on the expertise of journalists and designers from reputable media organizations to seek their advice on effective graphics could help the design process, particularly as data visualizations are now such an important part of the work of media organizations, partly because good visuals help the virality and shareability of articles on social media (Newman et al. 2015 ). Indeed, in general, experienced climate and environment correspondents could be part of the network of ‘trusted intermediaries’ identified by the IPCC 2023 expert workshop on scenarios to aid effective communication. (IPCC 2023 ) The niche climate site Carbon Brief Footnote 37 is mentioned in the same workshop report, in the context of scenario explainers being co-developed by stakeholders, scenario experts and IPCC WG communication experts. For example, Carbon Brief puts particular editorial emphasis on explaining complex climate science and using appropriate diagrams to aid understanding by specialist and general audiences (Painter et al. 2024 ), including special features on scenarios (Carbon Brief 2018 ).

Even though there are many factors, actors and interests other than IPCC reports which influence policy makers, we have already seen that there is evidence that with important caveats, these reports are used extensively by policy makers around the world to help provide scientific context to their decisions. In this context, all five recommendations put forward by the IPCC workshop report and mentioned above (IPCC 2023 ) are a useful starting point for aiding effective communication in the future. Additional recommendations mentioned elsewhere in the report (Section 3.5) such as i) using storylines to complement graphs and tables, and to illustrate how a scenario evolves over time, ii) selecting authors equipped with strong communication skills, and iii) the co-production of scenarios are also helpful. However, at the time of writing, none of these recommendations have been implemented or assessed, and adequate resources will be needed for their implementation.

Given the challenges mentioned above which journalists face in reporting accurately on scenarios, and making them relevant to people’s lives, writing guidelines for them is increasingly important. In addition, testing how the IPCC scenarios are received and understood by media consumers could aid effective communication designed to provide knowledge and appropriate action. This could include an assessment of the most helpful language such as the greater use of the phrase ‘options we face’, which suggests agency and choice. Footnote 38

As climate-enhanced extreme weather events become more of a daily part of existence around the world rather than a problem far away in space and time, the concept of scenarios and multiple possible futures, and public agency in choosing trajectories, could become a powerful communications tool for climate science in general. Just as the scenarios underlie the understanding of our potential future, embedding scenarios in climate communication could help to change the narrative away from a doom-laden or tipping point narrative, to involving the public and stake holders more in the discussion and options for possible (better) futures.

Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are presented in the Tables and Figures found in the main text and Supplementary Material.

The survey was carried out by an IPCC TSU employee in June 2022. 10 climate scientists took part.

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Painter, J., Marshall, S. & Leitzell, K. Communicating climate futures: a multi-country study of how the media portray the IPCC scenarios in the 2021/2 Working Group reports. Climatic Change 177 , 82 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03744-z

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Synthesis report of the ipcc sixth assessment report (ar6), attachments.

Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for all [EN/AR/RU/ZH]

INTERLAKEN, Switzerland, March 20, 2023 — There are multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change, and they are available now, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released today.

“Mainstreaming effective and equitable climate action will not only reduce losses and damages for nature and people, it will also provide wider benefits,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. “This Synthesis Report underscores the urgency of taking more ambitious action and shows that, if we act now, we can still secure a liveable sustainable future for all.”

In 2018, IPCC highlighted the unprecedented scale of the challenge required to keep warming to 1.5°C. Five years later, that challenge has become even greater due to a continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The pace and scale of what has been done so far, and current plans, are insufficient to tackle climate change.

More than a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use has led to global warming of 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels. This has resulted in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events that have caused increasingly dangerous impacts on nature and people in every region of the world.

Every increment of warming results in rapidly escalating hazards. More intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall and other weather extremes further increase risks for human health and ecosystems. In every region, people are dying from extreme heat. Climate-driven food and water insecurity is expected to increase with increased warming. When the risks combine with other adverse events, such as pandemics or conflicts, they become even more difficult to manage.

Losses and damages in sharp focus

The report, approved during a week-long session in Interlaken, brings in to sharp focus the losses and damages we are already experiencing and will continue into the future, hitting the most vulnerable people and ecosystems especially hard. Taking the right action now could result in the transformational change essential for a sustainable, equitable world.

“Climate justice is crucial because those who have contributed least to climate change are being disproportionately affected,” said Aditi Mukherji, one of the 93 authors of this Synthesis Report, the closing chapter of the Panel’s sixth assessment.

“Almost half of the world’s population lives in regions that are highly vulnerable to climate change. In the last decade, deaths from floods, droughts and storms were 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions,“ she added.

In this decade, accelerated action to adapt to climate change is essential to close the gap between existing adaptation and what is needed. Meanwhile, keeping warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels requires deep, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors. Emissions should be decreasing by now and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030, if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C.

Clear way ahead

The solution lies in climate resilient development. This involves integrating measures to adapt to climate change with actions to reduce or avoid greenhouse gas emissions in ways that provide wider benefits.

For example: access to clean energy and technologies improves health, especially for women and children; low-carbon electrification, walking, cycling and public transport enhance air quality, improve health, employment opportunities and deliver equity. The economic benefits for people’s health from air quality improvements alone would be roughly the same, or possibly even larger than the costs of reducing or avoiding emissions.

Climate resilient development becomes progressively more challenging with every increment of warming. This is why the choices made in the next few years will play a critical role in deciding our future and that of generations to come.

To be effective, these choices need to be rooted in our diverse values, worldviews and knowledges, including scientific knowledge, Indigenous Knowledge and local knowledge. This approach will facilitate climate resilient development and allow locally appropriate, socially acceptable solutions.

“The greatest gains in wellbeing could come from prioritizing climate risk reduction for low-income and marginalised communities, including people living in informal settlements,” said Christopher Trisos, one of the report’s authors. “Accelerated climate action will only come about if there is a many-fold increase in finance. Insufficient and misaligned finance is holding back progress.”

Enabling sustainable development

There is sufficient global capital to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions if existing barriers are reduced. Increasing finance to climate investments is important to achieve global climate goals. Governments, through public funding and clear signals to investors, are key in reducing these barriers. Investors, central banks and financial regulators can also play their part.

There are tried and tested policy measures that can work to achieve deep emissions reductions and climate resilience if they are scaled up and applied more widely. Political commitment, coordinated policies, international cooperation, ecosystem stewardship and inclusive governance are all important for effective and equitable climate action.

If technology, know-how and suitable policy measures are shared, and adequate finance is made available now, every community can reduce or avoid carbon-intensive consumption. At the same time, with significant investment in adaptation, we can avert rising risks, especially for vulnerable groups and regions.

Climate, ecosystems and society are interconnected. Effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30-50% of the Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean will help ensure a healthy planet. Urban areas offer a global scale opportunity for ambitious climate action that contributes to sustainable development.

Changes in the food sector, electricity, transport, industry, buildings and land-use can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, they can make it easier for people to lead low-carbon lifestyles, which will also improve health and wellbeing. A better understanding of the consequences of overconsumption can help people make more informed choices.

“Transformational changes are more likely to succeed where there is trust, where everyone works together to prioritise risk reduction, and where benefits and burdens are shared equitably,” Lee said. “We live in a diverse world in which everyone has different responsibilities and different opportunities to bring about change. Some can do a lot while others will need support to help them manage the change.”

Temperature-Scale Equivalents 1.1C = 2.0F 1.5C = 2.7F

For more information, please contact:

IPCC Press Office: [email protected] Lance Ignon, SYR Communications Specialist: [email protected]

Notes to editors

AR6 Synthesis Report in Numbers

Review comments: 6841

• Governments: 47 (21 Developed, 2 Economies in transition, 22 Developing, 2 SIDS)
• Government Comments: 6636 (1814 Figures, 4822 Text)
• Observers: 5
• Observer Comments: 205

Core Writing Team members: 49 Review Editors: 9 Extended Writing Team Authors: 7 Contributing Authors: 28 Women: 41 Men: 52 Developing Country Authors: 37 Developed Country Authors: 56

About the IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide political leaders with periodic scientific assessments about climate change. The IPCC has 195 member states that are members of the UN or WMO.

Thousands of people from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC. For the assessment reports, experts volunteer their time as IPCC authors to assess the thousands of scientific papers published each year to provide a comprehensive summary of what is known about the drivers of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and how adaptation and mitigation can reduce those risks. An open and transparent review by experts and member governments is an essential part of the IPCC process to ensure an objective and complete assessment and to reflect a diverse range of views and expertise.

The IPCC has three working groups: Working Group I, which addresses with the physical science of climate change; Working Group II, which focuses on the impact, adaptation and vulnerability associated with climate change; and Working Group III, which deals with the mitigation of climate change. It also has a Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Inventories that develops methodologies for measuring emissions and removals.

IPCC assessments provide governments, at all levels, with scientific information they can use to develop climate policies. IPCC assessments are a key input into the international negotiations to tackle climate change. IPCC reports are drafted and reviewed in several stages to guarantee accuracy, objectivity and transparency.

About the Sixth Assessment Cycle

The IPCC publishes comprehensive scientific assessments every six to seven years. The previous one, the Fifth Assessment Report , was completed in 2014 and provided the main scientific input to The Paris Agreement.

At its 41nd Session in February 2015, the IPCC decided to produce a Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). At its 42nd Session in October 2015, it elected a new Bureau, which is composed of the IPCC Chair, the IPCC Vice-Chairs, the Co-Chairs and Vice-Chairs of the Working Groups, and the Co-Chairs of the Task Force. At its 43rd Session in April 2016, the IPCC decided to produce three Special Reports, a Methodology Report and AR6.

The Working Group I contribution to AR6, Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis , was released on 9 August 2021. The Working Group II contribution, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability , was released on 28 February 2022. The Working Group III contribution, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change , was released on 4 April 2022.

The IPCC also published the following special reports on more specific issues during the Sixth Assessment Cycle:

Global Warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F) in October 2018; Climate Change and Land in August 2019; and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in September 2019

In May 2019, the IPCC released the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories .

For more information, please visit www.ipcc.ch . Most videos published by the IPCC can be found on its YouTube channel.

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(eceee news, 14 May 2024) The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) is calling on its member governments and observer organizations to nominate experts who will draft the outline of the Working Group contributions to the Seventh Assessment Report. Deadline for nominations is 7 June 2024.

The IPCC has decided to prepare a Seventh Assessment Report, including three Working Group contributions and a Synthesis Report. The Working Group I contribution is on the physical science basis of climate change, Working Group II deals with impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities, and Working Group III looks at the mitigation of climate change.

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