business plan sales projections

The Ultimate Guide to Sales Projections

Published: September 13, 2023

Wouldn't it be great if you could look into a crystal ball and find out just how much revenue your company will generate in the next quarter? Or fiscal year? Or in the next 3-5 years?

It turns out you can do that through sales projections. However, projecting sales is riddled with uncertainty because you‘re trying to estimate revenue generated from leads that you haven’t yet captured. So, how do you create an accurate sales projection for your company?

That’s why this guide exists. By the end, you’d have learned what a sales projection is, how it benefits your business, how to create accurate sales projections, and some tools you can use to ease the sales projection process.

Table of Contents

What is a sales projection?

• What are the benefits of sales projection?

How to Create a Sales Projection

Sales projection tools, tips for making sales projections.

A sales projection estimates future sales revenue over a particular period. It’s made by analyzing historical sales data, identifying patterns and trends, and using that to predict the revenue they’ll generate in the near future.

The sales team also considers the following when creating a sales projection:

• The economic factors that might affect the business.
• The current state of the market and the position the business occupies within it.
• Your budget for customer acquisition .

If you’re launching a new product or feature, the sales team will try to project sales for three scenarios: the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, and the most likely scenario — which is usually the middle ground between the first two.

Sales projections are critical because they allow companies to set realistic sales goals, track their progress over time, and estimate future revenue. Without accurate sales projections, companies will find it hard to set SMART sales goals or make data-driven decisions on allocating resources.

When this happens, companies usually teeter between underperforming and overperforming against their targets. This is a disorienting place to be because of the uncertainty that comes with not knowing whether you’ll hit your set targets or not.

The accounting department also uses sales projections to determine the budgets for different aspects of the business, estimate financial outcomes, assess financial risk, and conduct overall business planning.

What are the benefits of sales projections?

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How to Create a Sales Forecast

11 min. read

Updated October 27, 2023

Business owners are often afraid to forecast sales. But, you shouldn’t be. Because you can successfully forecast your own business’s sales.

You don’t have to be an MBA or CPA. It’s not about some magic right answer that you don’t know. It’s not about training you don’t have. It doesn’t take spreadsheet modeling (much less econometric modeling) to estimate units and price per unit for future sales. You just have to know your own business. 

Forecasting isn’t about seeing into the future

Sales forecasting is much easier than you think and much more useful than you imagine.

I was a vice president of a market research firm for several years, doing expensive forecasts, and I saw many times that there’s nothing better than the educated guess of somebody who knows the business well. All those sophisticated techniques depend on data from the past — and the past, by itself, isn’t the best predictor of the future. You are.

It’s not about guessing the future correctly. We’re human; we don’t do that well. Instead, it’s about setting down assumptions, expectations, drivers, tracking, and management. It’s about doing your job, not having precognitive powers. 

• Successful forecasting is driven by regular reviews

What really matters is that you review and revise your forecast regularly. Spending should be tied to sales, so the forecast helps you budget and manage. You measure the value of a sales forecast like you do anything in business, by its measurable business results.

That also means you should not back off from forecasting because you have a new product, or new business, without past data. Lay out the sales drivers and interdependencies, to connect the dots, so that as you review plan-versus-actual results every month, you can easily make course corrections.

If you think sales forecasting is hard, try running a business without a forecast. That’s much harder.

Your sales forecast is also the backbone of your business plan . People measure a business and its growth by sales, and your sales forecast sets the standard for  expenses , profits, and growth. The sales forecast is almost always going to be the first set of numbers you’ll track for plan versus actual use, even if you do no other numbers.

If nothing else, just forecast your sales, track plan-versus-actual results, and make corrections — that process alone, just the sales forecast and tracking is in itself already business planning. To get started on building your forecast follow these steps.

And if you run a subscription-based business, we have a guide dedicated to building a sales forecast for that business model.

• Step 1: Set up your lines of sales

Most forecasts show several distinct lines of sales. Ideally, your sales lines match your accounting, but not necessarily in the same level of detail.   

For example, a restaurant ought not to forecast sales for each item on the menu. Instead, it forecasts breakfasts, lunches, dinners, and drinks, summarized. And a bookstore ought not to forecast sales by book, and not even by topic or author, but rather by lines of sales such as hardcover, softcover, magazines, and maybe categories (such as fiction, non-fiction, travel, etc.) if that works.

Always try to set your streams to match your accounting, so you can look at the difference between the forecast and actual sales later. This is excellent for real business planning. It makes the heart of the process, the regular review, and revision, much easier. The point is better management.

For instance, in a bicycle retail store business plan, the owner works with five lines of sales, as shown in the illustration here.  

In this sample case, the revenue includes new bikes, repair, clothing, accessories, and a service contract. The bookkeeping for this retail store tracks sales in those same five categories.

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• Step 2: Forecast line by line

There are many ways to forecast a line of sales.

The method for each row depends on the business model

Among the main methods are:.

• Unit sales : My personal favorite. Sales = units times price. You set an average price and forecast the units. And of course, you can change projected pricing over time. This is my favorite for most businesses because it gives you two factors to act on with course corrections: unit sales, or price.
• Service units : Even though services don’t sell physical units, most sell billable units, such as billable hours for lawyers and accountants, or trips for transportations services, engagements for consultants, and so forth.
• Recurring charges : Subscriptions. For each month or year, it has to forecast new signups, existing monthly charges, and cancellations. Estimates depend on both new signups and cancellations, which is often called “churn.”
• Revenue only : For those who prefer to forecast revenue by the stream as just the money, without the extra information of breaking it into units and prices.

Most sales forecast rows are simple math

For a business plan, I recommend you make your sales forecast a detailed look at the next 12 months and then broadly cover two years after that. Here’s how to approach each method of line-by-line forecasting.

Start with units if you can

For unit sales, start by forecasting units month by month, as shown here below for the new bike’s line of sales in the bicycle shop plan:

I recommend looking at the visual as you forecast the units because most of us can see trends easier when we look at the line, as shown in the illustration, rather than just the numbers. You can also see the numbers in the forecast near the bottom. The first year, fiscal 2021 in this forecast, is the sum of those months.

Estimate price assumptions

With a simple revenue-only assumption, you do one row of units as shown in the above illustration, and you are done. The units are dollars, or whatever other currency you are using in your forecast. In this example, the new bicycle product will be sold for an average of $550.00. 

That’s a simplifying assumption, taking the average price, not the detailed price for each brand or line. Garrett, the shop owner, uses his past results to determine his actual average price for the most recent year. Then he rounds that estimate and adds his own judgment and educated guess on how that will change. 

Multiply price times units

Multiplying units times the revenue per unit generates the sales forecast for this row. So for example the $18,150 shown for October of 2020 is the product of 33 units times $550 each. And the $21,450 shown for the next month is the product of 39 units times $550 each. 

Subscription models are more complicated

Lately, a lot of businesses offer their buyers subscriptions, such as monthly packages, traditional or online newspapers, software, and even streaming services. All of these give a business recurring revenues, which is a big advantage. 

For subscriptions, you normally estimate new subscriptions per month and canceled subscriptions per month, and leave a calculation for the actual subscriptions charged. That’s a more complicated method, which demands more details. 

For that, you can refer to detailed discussions on subscription forecasting in How to Forecast Sales for a Subscription Business .

• But how do you know what numbers to put into your sales forecast?

The math may be simple, yes, but this is predicting the future, and humans don’t do that well. So, don’t try to guess the future accurately for months in advance.

Instead, aim for making clear assumptions and understanding what drives your sales, such as web traffic and conversions, in one example, or the direct sales pipeline and leads, in another. Review results every month, and revise your forecast. Your educated guesses become more accurate over time.

Experience in the field is a huge advantage

In a normal ongoing business, the business owner has ample experience with past sales. They may not know accounting or technical forecasting, but they know their business. They are aware of changes in the market, their own business’s promotions, and other factors that business owners should know. They are comfortable making educated guesses.

If you don’t personally have the experience, try to find information and make guesses based on the experience of an employee,  your mentor , or others you’ve spoken within your field.

Use past results as a guide

Use results from the recent past if your business has them. Start a forecast by putting last year’s numbers into next year’s forecast, and then focus on what might be different this year from next.

Do you have new opportunities that will make sales grow? New marketing activities, promotions? Then increase the forecast. New competition, and new problems? Nobody wants to forecast decreasing sales, but if that’s likely, you need to deal with it by cutting costs or changing your focus.

Look for drivers

To forecast sales for a new restaurant, first, draw a map of tables and chairs and then estimate how many meals per mealtime at capacity, and in the beginning. It’s not a random number; it’s a matter of how many people come in.

To forecast sales for a new mobile app, you might get data from the Apple and Android mobile app stores about average downloads for different apps. A good web search might also reveal some anecdotal evidence, blog posts, and news stories, about the ramp-up of existing apps that were successful.

Get those numbers and think about how your case might be different. Maybe you drive downloads with a website, so you can predict traffic from past experience and then assume a percentage of web visitors who will download the app.

• Estimate direct costs

Direct costs are also called the cost of goods sold (COGS) and per-unit costs. Direct costs are important because they help calculate gross margin, which is used as a basis for comparison in financial benchmarks, and are an instant measure (sales less direct costs) of your underlying profitability.

For example, I know from benchmarks that an average sporting goods store makes a 34 percent gross margin. That means that they spend $66 on average to buy the goods they sell for $100.

Not all businesses have direct costs. Service businesses supposedly don’t have direct costs, so they have a gross margin of 100 percent. That may be true for some professionals like accountants and lawyers, but a lot of services do have direct costs. For example, taxis have gasoline and maintenance. So do airlines.

A normal sales forecast includes units, price per unit, sales, direct cost per unit, and direct costs. The math is simple, with the direct costs per unit related to total direct costs the same way price per unit relates to total sales.

Multiply the units projected for any time period by the unit direct costs, and that gives you total direct costs. And here too, assume this view is just a cut-out, it flows to the right. In this example, Garrett the shop owner projected the direct costs of new bikes based on the assumption of 49 percent of sales.

Given the unit forecast estimate, the calculation of units times direct costs produces the forecast shown in the illustration below for direct costs for that product. So therefore the projected direct costs for new bikes in October is $8,894, which is 49% of the projected sales for that month, $18,150.

• Never forecast in a vacuum

Never think of your sales forecast in a vacuum. It flows from the strategic action plans with their assumptions,  milestones , and metrics. Your marketing milestones affect your sales. Your business offering milestones affect your sales.

When you change milestones—and you will, because all business plans change—you should change your sales forecast to match.

• Timing matters

Your sales are supposed to refer to when the ownership changes hands (for products) or when the service is performed (for services). It isn’t a sale when it’s ordered, or promised, or even when it’s contracted.

With proper  accrual accounting , it is a sale even if it hasn’t been paid for. With so-called cash-based accounting, by the way, it isn’t a sale until it’s paid for. Accrual is better because it gives you a more accurate picture, unless you’re very small and do all your business, both buying and selling, with cash only.

I know that seems simple, but it’s surprising how many people decide to do something different. The penalty for doing things differently is that then you don’t match the standard, and the bankers, analysts, and investors can’t tell what you meant.

This goes for direct costs, too. The direct costs in your monthly  profit and loss statement  are supposed to be just the costs associated with that month’s sales. Please notice how, in the examples above, the direct costs for the sample bicycle store are linked to the actual unit sales.

• Live with your assumptions

Sales forecasting is not about accurately guessing the future. It’s about laying out your assumptions so you can manage changes effectively as sales and direct costs come out different from what you expected. Use this to adjust your sales forecast and improve your business by making course corrections to deal with what is working and what isn’t.

I believe that even if you do nothing else, by the time you use a sales forecast and review plan versus actual results every month, you are already managing with a business plan . You can’t review actual results without looking at what happened, why, and what to do next.

See why 1.2 million entrepreneurs have written their business plans with LivePlan

Tim Berry is the founder and chairman of Palo Alto Software , a co-founder of Borland International, and a recognized expert in business planning. He has an MBA from Stanford and degrees with honors from the University of Oregon and the University of Notre Dame. Today, Tim dedicates most of his time to blogging, teaching and evangelizing for business planning.

Table of Contents

• Forecasting isn’t about seeing into the future

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22 Sales Projection Templates for 2021 Forecasts

Casey O'Connor

What Is Sales Forecasting?

Types of sales forecast templates, forecasting templates for startups, forecasting templates for businesses with multiple products, forecasting templates for b2b companies.

Sales projection templates can help you quickly and easily create an accurate, data-driven sales forecast for your team.

Sales forecasting is an important exercise for any sales team that wants to see significant year-over-year growth and the ability to fine-tune their sales process in specific, targeted ways. 

In this article, we’ll go over the basics of sales forecasting, as well as provide various forecast templates to help you streamline the process. 

Here’s what we’ll cover:

• Top Forecasting Templates for Startups

A sales forecast is a data-driven prediction of the financial outcomes a business will most likely see at the end of a given time period. A sales forecast can provide insight into the performance of individual sales reps, full sales teams, or even entire organizations. 

For overworked salespeople, making financial projections about future sales that may or may not come to fruition can seem like an exercise in futility. But a thorough, carefully considered sales forecast can be a huge asset to your business .

In order to create an accurate sales forecast, consider how the following factors currently impact your bottom line:

Your business goals are a very important benchmark for your sales team to keep in mind as you create your sales forecast. While your goals may not directly factor into the actual template, they will help steer your decision-making processes. Both short-term and long-term SMART goals will help give structure to your forecast.

Sales Process

Your sales process map will be another helpful tool in creating your sales forecast (if you don’t have one yet, check out our tips on creating one here ). Use your sales process map to pull data points and determine areas of strength and growth.

Company Standards

Chances are that your sales team is made up of salespeople from all different backgrounds and experiences — what one sales rep considers a “qualified lead” may be entirely different from the next. The same goes for things like follow-up communication — how much is too much? Should the follow-up process start on LinkedIn , or via email? 

While it may feel laborious, it’s worth your time to standardize and define these kinds of terms with your team. Use your sales process map to guide this exercise. Having consistency in your metrics will go a long way in pinpointing your sales projections.

In business, every penny counts (this is particularly true for small businesses and start-ups). If you’re not tracking every single penny that goes into and out of your business ( many businesses aren’t ), you need to start ASAP. Your sales projections will only be as accurate as your accounting, and the devil here is in the details. 

Don’t worry — you don’t need to go and cut funds from every department. Sometimes knowing the numbers is just as powerful as trimming them. But you’ll only reap the benefits of sales forecasting if you take a good hard look at the dollars you’re currently spending — all of them. 

Befriend Your CRM

If your company utilizes any CRM software, now’s the time to start maximizing it. Your CRM can be a great way to track the many moving pieces that make up a sales forecast. Make sure you understand its full functionality , as many companies tend to only stick to the surface-level features.

When executed correctly, sales forecasts can give you very valuable insight into various aspects of your sales performance over a period of time. It also gives investors a really compelling reason to inject money into your business — if your forecasted sales are promising, they’ll be much more likely to invest.

Different businesses have different needs for sales forecasting templates. These templates may include things like multiple products, multiple time frames, seasonality considerations, and other variables. It’s important to make sure the template you choose captures the full financial picture without overcomplicating it. 

In general, there are seven main types of forecast templates. Some of these standardized templates may work for your business, but you should also feel free to use these as a starting point, and customize as needed

(Don’t be intimidated by this process — you can do most of this with Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets!)

1. Lead Driven Forecasting

With this lead-driven forecasting template , you’ll be relying on extensive knowledge of your leads. Each lead source gets a value assigned, and projections are calculated accordingly.

Because this template requires a lot of data about leads and their behaviors, it may not work well for businesses that are just starting out and still researching their customer base. 

2. Length of Sales Cycle Forecasting

Length of sales cycle forecasting  predicts the probability of a deal closing based on where they are in your sales cycle. It then assigns each deal a value based on how far along they are in the process. 

This template works well for companies who have robust CRM or other automation tools.

3. Opportunity Stage Forecasting

Opportunity stage forecasting is similar to the previous two templates, though it doesn’t account for source of leads or exact length of sales cycle. Instead, it assigns a probability to each prospect based on what stage of the sales process they’re in. 

This template will take these probabilities, assign them a value, and add those values into your sales projection as your leads move through the sales process. 

4. Intuitive Forecasting

Intuitive forecasting is pretty self-explanatory, and the least objective approach to sales forecasting . It relies on a sales rep’s experience to make judgments about how much  value each deal will bring to the company. 

Sales reps might consider any of the following as they make their forecast:

This method is difficult to scale, but it also doesn’t require a ton of historical sales data — it’s a good fit for many startups as they gather sales data. 

5. Test-Market Analysis Forecasting

Test-market analysis forecast templates are used when launching new products. This method requires that you perform and collect data on a small test launch, and apply those results to your overall forecast.

6. Historical Forecasting

This is a very data-driven approach — it uses your historical sales data to predict future  growth. It’s relatively quick and easy, but it has its downfalls. 

Historical forecasting  does not take any external factors into account, like market conditions or sales team changes. It simply looks at your history of sales. It also assumes year-over-year growth, which isn’t always the case. For most companies, historical sales data is a hugely beneficial piece of the sales forecast, but not the entire basis.

7. Multivariable Analysis

This multivariable analysis example spits out forecasts for gross profit and growth rate, but you could also formulate to predict things like profit margin or total revenue.

Without long-term historical sales data, it can be hard for many startups to create detailed projected sales reports. This is also true for older businesses who are launching a new product. In cases like these, it’s best to start with a simple projections template. 

Here are some of the most basic, easiest-to-use templates we found for businesses that are just starting out. Click on the template’s header to download each one. 

8. One-year Sales Forecast

One-year Sales Forecast (Google Sheets):

This template has very few inputs for historical sales data. All you need to include are the year, product, unit type, and the number of units sold. The spreadsheet has built-in formulas that will calculate the remaining rows automatically.

9. Best & Worst Case Scenario

Best & Worst Case Scenario (Excel):

This template works well for companies who have only minimal data, and can give new businesses a target forecast range rather than precise numbers. For startups, this can allow for flexibility while still pursuing aggressive growth.

10. Expense-Focused

Expense-Focused (Excel):

This template does a really nice job of breaking down all the various expenses that go into running a business. It could work really well for startups who are still learning how their cash flows in and out. 

11. Monthly Sales

Monthly Sales (Microsoft):

This template is great for startups that want to cut out the extra noise and simply determine whether their efforts are paying off month-to-month while they’re starting out.

12. Simple Monthly Reporting

Simple Monthly Reporting (PDF):

Businesses with multiple products (many e-commerce businesses fit this description, for example) sometimes struggle to create a sales forecasting template that’s fluid enough to capture the performance of many different profit streams. 

Take a look at some of the best templates we found that are flexible enough to meet those needs. 

13. 12-Month Forecast for Multiple Products

12-Month Forecast for Multiple Products (Excel):

This template is detailed enough to see how each product fits into the bigger picture, but also simple and intuitive enough that a fledgling business could use it effectively.

14. Color-Coded Outputs

Color-Coded Outputs (Excel):

This template does a really nice job of streamlining the data from multiple product sales and arranging them in an aesthetically pleasing and easy-to-read manner. 

15. Opportunity-Based

Opportunity-Based :

This template  allows you to input sales based on deal stage, size, and probability. It’s best suited for companies who have a more developed understanding of their leads and sales process.

16. New Product Launch

New Product Launch (Excel):

This template is great for companies who are launching a new product and want to look at projections for that product in isolation. Because new products sometimes take longer to get off the ground and aren’t necessarily representative of sales projections as a whole, it can be good to look at their performance removed from the bigger picture — at least in the beginning.  

17. Individual Growth Rates by Product

Individual Growth Rates by Product (Excel):

This template does the dirty work for you by breaking down growth rates by individual products, so you can pinpoint the ones that are making the biggest impact.

Here are a few examples of sales forecasting templates for B2B companies.

18. Lead-Driven B2B

Lead-Driven B2B (Excel):

This template allows salespeople to enter data following a lead-driven approach. It assigns a projected value based on what stage the lead is in.

19. Projected Volume

Projected Volume (Excel):

20. Site Traffic Projections

Site Traffic Projections (Google Sheets):

This template download has wonderful step-by-step instructions for inputting your data and analyzing the results. The template uses site traffic as one of its metrics, so it would work best for e-commerce or other heavily web-based businesses.

21. Multivariable Analysis

Multivariable Analysis (Google Sheets):

This template allows for projections based on a number of different variables, including seasonality. The template is great for businesses that have many external variables to consider. 

22. Historical Growth Rate

Historical Growth Rate (Excel):

This template uses your historical sales data to predict future growth. Because the only inputs are past sales, it’s important to make sure that this data is very robust — we recommend at least two years of historical sales figures for this template.

Hopefully, one of many of these templates will be a good fit for your sales forecasts. They can be used as a guide to creating your own custom template in Excel or Google Sheets. Make sure to include the constants — things like unit sold and cost of goods sold — but tweaking the templates can go a long way in making them a more powerful tool for your business.

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