Hypotheses: types, levels and functions | scientific method | geography.
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In this article we will discuss about:- 1. Types of Hypotheses 2. Levels of Hypothesis 3. Functions 4. Testing.
Types of Hypotheses :
There are several different kinds of hypotheses used in social and/or geographical analysis, studies and research.
However, the primary types of hypotheses are:
(1) Research Hypotheses,
(2) Null Hypotheses,
(3) Scientific Hypotheses, and
(4) Statistical Hypotheses.
1. Research Hypotheses:
Hypotheses derived from the researcher’s theory about some social and/or geographical phenomena are called research hypotheses or ‘working’ hypotheses.
The social investigator usually believes that his/her research hypotheses are true or they are accurate statements about the condition of things he/she is investigating. The investigator believes that these hypotheses are true to the extent that the theory from which they were derived is adequate.
Theories are, in one sense, suppositions about the true nature of things, and thus regarded as tentative statements about reality. Until they have been verified to the scientist’s satisfaction, the hypotheses derived from theories must also be regarded as tentative suppositions about things until they have been tested. Testing hypothesis means to subject it to confirmation or disconfirmation.
2. Null Hypotheses:
Null hypotheses are, in a sense, the reverse of research hypotheses. They are also statements about the reality of things, except that they serve to refute or deny what is explicitly indicated in a given research hypothesis.
Null hypotheses are hypothetical models used to test research hypotheses. The question that arises as why does the social investigator want to bother with so-called null hypotheses? Why doesn’t the investigator test the hypothesis directly and let it go at that?
These questions have been asked time and again by every researcher confronting null hypotheses for the first time. There are at least four explanations why null hypothesis models are used, none of which, however, may answer this question satisfactorily.
i. Trying to show the truthfulness of research hypotheses would imply to some, at least, a definite bias towards trying to confirm one’s suppositions and possibly ignoring those things that would tend to refute our belief.
ii. There are those who would argue that it is easier to find fault with something, i.e. an idea, belief, or hypothesis than to look for those things that would support it.
iii. It may be summed up in one word convention. It is conventional in social research to use null hypotheses. Null hypotheses, however, also perform specific functions in relation to probability theory and tests of research hypotheses.
iv. Under a probability theoretical model, hypotheses have a likelihood of being either true or false. Null hypotheses are particularly useful in such theoretical models. The null hypothesis is an expression of one alternative outcome of a social/physical observation.
The probability model specifies that the null hypotheses may be either true or false but not both simultaneously. Neither the research hypotheses nor the null hypothesis is absolutely true or absolutely false under any given test of it. Both probabilities (being either true or false) co-exist for each type of hypothesis always.
3. Scientific Hypotheses:
In scientific investigation, however, the term hypothesis is often given a somewhat more restricted meaning. To Braithwaite (1960) – A scientific hypothesis is a general proposition about all the things of a certain sort. It is an empirical proposition in the sense that it is testable by experience; experience is relevant to the question as to whether or not the hypothesis is true, i.e. as to whether or not it is a scientific law.’
A scientific hypothesis, in Braithwaite’s tradition, is a particular kind of proposition which, if true, will be accorded the status of a scientific law. The testability of a hypothesis is crucial, but there are many hypotheses within a theoretical system which cannot be directly tested against sense perception data.
Thus, ‘The empirical testing of the deductive system is effected by testing the lowest level hypotheses in the system. The confirmation or refutation of these is the criterion by which the truth of all the hypotheses in the system is tested’.
Since scientific hypothesis is often regarded as being a proposition where truth or falsity is capable of being asserted, the truth and falsity of it (hypothesis) can be determined only with respect to the domain of some theory.
4. Statistical Hypotheses:
These are statements about statistical population that, on the basis of information obtained from observed data, one seeks to support or refute. The statistical population may refer to either people or things. It is generally the case in the test of statistical hypotheses that observations about people or things are reduced in some way to numerical quantities, and decisions are made about these quantities.
To subject these hypotheses to empirical test, what is required is to reduce the variables used in them to measurable quantities. Research hypothesis and corresponding null hypotheses can be transferred into a statistical hypotheses that may be evaluated by numerical means.
Statistical hypotheses are usually established to delineate:
i. Differences between two or more groups regarding some trait or collection of characteristics that they possess,” association between two or more variables within one group or between several groups, and
ii. Point estimates of sample or population characteristics.
Levels of Hypothesis :
Apart from the aforesaid four types of hypotheses, three broad levels of hypotheses may be distinguished on the basis of the level of abstraction, which are as follows:
1. Some hypotheses state the existence of empirical uniformities. These hypotheses frequently, though not always, represent the scientific examination of common-sense propositions. They usually represent, also, a problem about which some ‘common-sense’ observation already exists. There are many types of such empirical uniformities which are common in social science and/or geographical research.
However, these investigations do not involve the testing of hypothesis at all, but are merely adding up the facts. These are not useful hypotheses for they merely represent what everyone already knows.
2. Some hypotheses are concerned with complex ideal types. These hypotheses aim at testing the existence of logically devised relationships between empirical uniformities. One such hypothesis was Ernest W. Burgess’s statement on the concentric growth circles that characterise the city.
This hypothesis was then tested against a variety of variables in a number of cities. That this ideal type does represent the actual patterns of city growth is not accepted by all ecologists, however, and so this formulation remains a hypothesis until a more crucial test of it is made.
Another hypothesis, concerning an ideal type also, results from these same ecological empirical uniformities. This was the notion that areas tend to represent certain characteristics in a series of predictable patterns. This was called the hypothesis of the ‘natural area’.
Much research has been done on this hypothesis, and the results, although they have modified the original statement somewhat, have generally supported it. With the growth of supporting evidence, notions about natural area have become a part of geographical theory rather than remaining hypotheses.
It is important to see that this level of hypothesising moves beyond the expectation of simple empirical uniformity, by creating a complex referent in society. The function of such hypothesis is to create tools and problems for further research in otherwise very complex area of investigation.
3. Some hypotheses are concerned with the relation of analytic variable. These hypotheses occur at a level of abstraction beyond that of ideal types. The hypotheses of empirical uniformities lead to the observation of simple differences, and those dealing with ideal types lead to specific coincidences of observations. The study of analytical variables requires the formulation of a relationship between changes in one property and changes in another.
On the basis of the above discussion, three major points can be identified:
(1) That a hypothesis is a necessary condition for successful research;
(2) That formulation of the hypothesis must be given considerable attention, to clarify its relation to theory, remove vague or value judgemental terms, and specify the test to be applied, and
(3) That hypotheses may be formulated on different levels of abstraction.
Functions of Hypotheses :
Theories are relatively elaborate tools used to explain and predict events. The social scientist develops a theory to account for some social phenomena, and then he devises a means whereby the theory can be tested or subjected to verification or refutation. Seldom does the researcher test theory directly. Most of the time he/she conducts tests of hypotheses that been generated and derived from that theory.
If the hypotheses ‘test out’ as the researcher has specified, or if his empirical observations are in accordance with what has been stated in the hypotheses, we say that his/her theory is supported in part. It usually takes many tests of different hypotheses from the same theory to demonstrate its predictive value and its adequacy as a tool of explanation for some event or sequence of events.
A major function of hypotheses is to make it possible to test theories. In this regard, an alternative definition of a hypothesis is that it is a statement of theory in testable forms. All statements of theory in testable form are called hypotheses.
Some hypotheses are not associated with any particular theory. It could be that as a result of some hypothesis, a theory will be eventually constructed. Consequently, another function of hypotheses is to suggest theories that may account far some event.
Although it is more often the case that research proceeds from theories to hypotheses, occasionally the reverse is true. The social investigator may have some idea about why a given phenomenon occurs and he/she hypothesises a number of things that relate to it.
He/she judges that some hypotheses have greater potential than others for explaining the event, and as a result, he/she may construct a logical system of propositions, assumptions and definitions linking his explanation to the events. In other words, the researcher devises a theory.
Working from the hypothesis back to the theory is not necessarily poor methodology. Eventually, the investigator is going to have to subject the resulting theory to empirical test to determine its adequacy. The predictive value of the theory can be assessed at that time.
Hypotheses also perform a descriptive function. Each time a hypothesis is tested empirically, that tells something about the phenomenon it is associated with. If the hypothesis is supported, then the information about the phenomenon increases.
Even if the hypothesis is refuted, the test tells something about the phenomenon that is not known before. The accumulation of information as a result of hypothesis testing reduces the amount of ignorance we may have about why a social event occurs in a given way.
Hypotheses also have some important secondary functions. As a result of testing certain hypotheses, social policy may be formulated in communities, penal institutions may be redesigned and revamped, teaching methods may be altered or improved solutions to various kinds of social problems may be suggested and implemented, and supervisory practices may be changed in factories and business.
Testing hypotheses refute certain ‘common sense’ notions about human behaviour, raises questions about explanations we presently use to account for things, and most generally alters our orientation towards our environment to one degree or another. All hypotheses have to do with our knowledge of things, and as this knowledge changes, we change also.
Testing Hypotheses :
Testing hypotheses means ‘subjecting them to some sort of empirical scrutiny to determine if they are supported or refuted by what the researcher observes’. Testing hypotheses means that the researcher will need to do a number of things.
Following are the two prerequisites to hypotheses testing:
1. A real social situation is needed that will suffice as a reasonable testing ground for the hypothesis. If the hypothesis concerns managerial behaviour, it will be necessary for the investigator to study some real organisation or organisations where managerial behaviour can be taken into empirically.
This particular prerequisite is frequently spoken of as ‘getting access to data that will enable the investigator to verify or refute his/her hypotheses’. Once a given social setting is selected, the relevant data in that situation must be obtained to make the hypothesis test a valid one.
2. The investigator should make sure that his hypotheses are testable. This means that he/she should limit his/her investigations to empirical phenomena or events that can be taken into through the senses. The variables used in the hypotheses tested should be amenable to measurement of some kind.
If they are not subject to measurement, the resulting test of the hypothesis will be relatively meaningless. Testing hypotheses must be a part of the empirical world. This is a fundamental requirement wherever the scientific method is employed in studying what is and why.
Terms that cannot be taken into empirically, render the hypothesis irrefutable and untestable. How can a scientist reject a hypothesis containing variables that he cannot experience in some empirical form? For example, if a researcher were to hypothesise that ‘evil spirit causes delinquency’, he/she can neither support nor refute this statement by using conventional scientific methods.
He/ she obviously has empirical tools to determine the incidence of delinquent or non-delinquent behaviour, but by what empirical means is he/she able to assess meaningfully the influence or impact of ‘evil spirits’ on delinquent behaviour?
Unless there are empirical means of evaluating the impact of non- empirical phenomena on particular variables, the researcher cannot validly subject the hypothesis to true scientific test. However, it is possible that terms that are presently indefinable empirically, might at some later date become amenable to the senses through the discovery of new means of measuring such phenomena. This always exists as a possibility.
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PhysicalGeography.net | FUNDAMENTALS eBOOK
CHAPTER 3: The Science of Physical Geography
, we discovered that an important component of scientific method was the testing of either through or forms of analysis. A hypothesis can be defined as a tentative assumption that is made for the purpose of empirical scientific testing. A hypothesis becomes a theory of science when repeated testing produces the same conclusion.
. The null hypothesis is the assumption that will be maintained by the researcher unless the analysis of data provides significant evidence to disprove it. The null hypothesis is denoted symbolically as . For example, here is a formulated null hypothesis related to the investigation of precipitation patterns over adjacent rural and urban land-use types:
: There is no difference in precipitation levels between urban and adjacent rural areas. ( ). Researchers should structure their tests so that all outcomes are anticipated before the tests and that results can be clearly interpreted. Some tests may require the formulation of multiple alternative hypotheses. However, interpretation is most clear cut when the hypothesis is set up with only one alternative outcome. For the example dealing with precipitation patterns over adjacent rural and urban land-use types, the alternative might be: : There is an increase in precipitation levels in urban areas relative to adjacent rural areas because of the heating differences of the two surface types (the urban area heats up more and has increased convective uplift). statistical tests the data must be collected randomly, data observations should be independent of each other, and the variables should be normally distributed.
(see and for examples). Inferential statistics are available both for predictive and experimental hypothesis testing. This group of statistical procedures allow researchers to test assumptions about collected data based on the laws of probability. Tests are carried out by comparing calculated values of the test statistic to assigned critical values.
. A non-directional (or two-sided) hypothesis would be used when both positive and negative differences are of equal importance in providing evidence with which to test the null hypothesis. We call this type of test .
Pidwirny, M. (2006). "Hypothesis Testing". . Date Viewed. http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/3f.html
Created by Dr. Michael Pidwirny & Scott Jones University of British Columbia Okanagan
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Hypothesis: Geography
By Keith Kelly
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Keith Kelly looks at examples of the language of hypothesis, prediction and conditions from the area of geography, covering common structures and lexical phrases.
Common structures
Predicting with a greater degree of certainty.
If … happens, … will: If the population continues to increase at this pace, it will double in less than 20 years.
As … happens, (then) … will/may happen: As a country’s economy develops, its population will grow very slowly at first, but will then grow rapidly later and may finally stop growing.
When … happens, (then) … will happen: When the magma cools, it will form igneous rock within the crust.
Because … happens, (then) … will happen: Because the resources are used at a faster rate than they are replaced, they will be run down to levels at which they become of little use to people.
Predicting with a lesser degree of certainty
If … happens, … may / might / can / could happen (possibility):
If a cave erodes all the way through a headland, an arch may form.
If many vehicles pass over the sand dunes throughout the year, this can greatly reduce vegetation cover.
If greenhouse gases continue to accumulate at their present rate, the earth’s temperature could rise by around 3ºC in the 21 st century. Health problems could increase in temperate latitudes as tropical diseases might spread to these regions due to higher summer temperatures.
If … happened, … would happen (probability): If cultural regions were based only on language, they would be relatively easy to define.
Assuming … happened, … would happen (probability): Assuming working hours were reduced, the cost of manufacturing would increase.
If … had happened, … would have happened (speculation about the past): If a similar mudflow had hit a town in a rich country, fewer homes would have been destroyed.
Predicting using a negative construction
Unless … happens, … will not happen / … will not happen, unless … happens: Unless more oil is found, or energy use is controlled, the world’s oil supply will not last beyond the end of the 21st century. The population of the island will not be evacuated unless there is a real perceived threat from the active volcano.
If / When … does not happen, … will happen / … will not happen: If the rain does not fall, it will cause drought, crop failure and famine. When the tide comes in beyond the markers, the fishermen will not be able to lay their nets.
Common lexical phrases
Whether … happens depends on … / … happening requires … (entails, calls for, demands, needs): Whether river erosion happens quickly or slowly depends on hardness of rock, volume of water and river speed. Maximising a crop harvest demands a lot of forward planning and preparation and calls for a certain amount of pure luck.
A requirement (condition / prerequisite / necessity) for … to happen is … / One of the conditions for … is …: Conditions for effective distribution ( to happen ) include access to wide, well-surfaced routes, and airports or ports. One of the conditions for effective distribution is access to wide, well-surfaced routes, and airports or ports.
For … to happen, … is essential (necessary/crucial/vital): For rice to grow effectively, waterlogged conditions are essential .
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Keith Kelly looks at examples of language used in making conclusions and findings from the area of science, categorized by nouns, verbs, word groups and prepositions.
Conclusions and findings: Geography
Keith Kelly looks at examples of language used in making conclusions and findings from the area of geography, categorized by nouns, verbs, word groups and prepositions.
Generalizations: Science
Keith Kelly looks at examples of language used in making generalizations from the area of science; these can be split into three broad groups: quantity, frequency and certainty.
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Grade 12 Geography Hypothesis Examples based on South African Topics
Grade 12 Geography Hypothesis Examples based on South African Topics:
A hypothesis is a proposed explanation or assumption for a specific phenomenon, event, or observation that can be tested through scientific investigation. It is a key component of the scientific method, as it provides a basis for researchers to design experiments, collect data, and ultimately confirm or refute the hypothesis.
Relevant terminologies related to a hypothesis:
Null hypothesis (H0): A statement that suggests there is no significant relationship between the variables being studied or that the observed effect is due to chance alone. The null hypothesis is often tested against an alternative hypothesis.
Alternative hypothesis (H1 or Ha): A statement that contradicts the null hypothesis, asserting that there is a significant relationship between the variables or that the observed effect is not due to chance alone.
Dependent variable: The variable being studied or measured in an experiment, often considered the “outcome” or “response” variable. It is dependent on the independent variable(s).
Independent variable: The variable that is manipulated or controlled by the researcher in an experiment to study its effect on the dependent variable.
Control group: A group in an experiment that does not receive the treatment or manipulation of the independent variable. The control group serves as a baseline for comparison with the experimental group.
Experimental group: A group in an experiment that receives the treatment or manipulation of the independent variable.
Confounding variable: A variable that may influence the relationship between the independent and dependent variables, potentially leading to incorrect conclusions.
Internal validity: The degree to which the results of a study can be attributed to the manipulation of the independent variable rather than the influence of confounding variables.
External validity: The degree to which the results of a study can be generalized to other populations, settings, or conditions.
Statistical significance: A measure of the likelihood that the observed relationship between variables is due to chance alone. A statistically significant result indicates that there is strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
P-value: A probability value used to determine the statistical significance of a result. A smaller p-value (typically less than 0.05) indicates stronger evidence against the null hypothesis.
Here are possible hypothesis examples based on South African geography topics:
Hypothesis: The severity and frequency of droughts in South Africa will increase due to climate change.
This hypothesis could be investigated by analyzing historical drought data and comparing it to climate projections for the region. Researchers could also look at the impacts of droughts on agriculture, water availability, and socio-economic factors in different parts of the country.
Hypothesis: The development of renewable energy infrastructure in South Africa will reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels and lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
This hypothesis could be investigated by examining trends in energy production and consumption, as well as government policies and incentives related to renewable energy. Researchers could also analyze the environmental and economic impacts of transitioning to renewable energy sources in different parts of the country.
Hypothesis: Urbanization in South Africa is contributing to increased air pollution levels and negative health impacts.
This hypothesis could be investigated by measuring air pollution levels in different urban areas and comparing them to national and international standards. Researchers could also examine the health impacts of air pollution on different demographic groups and assess the effectiveness of existing policies and interventions aimed at reducing air pollution.
Hypothesis: Mining activities in South Africa are causing significant environmental degradation and negative impacts on local communities.
This hypothesis could be investigated by analyzing the environmental impacts of different mining practices, such as open pit mining and deep level mining, and assessing the effectiveness of regulatory frameworks in mitigating these impacts. Researchers could also investigate the social and economic impacts of mining on local communities, including displacement, loss of livelihoods, and health impacts.
Hypothesis: Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity in South Africa, particularly in regions with high levels of population growth and agricultural activity.
This hypothesis could be investigated by analyzing historical rainfall data and assessing the impacts of changing rainfall patterns on water availability in different regions. Researchers could also examine the effectiveness of water management strategies, such as water conservation measures and investments in infrastructure, in mitigating the impacts of water scarcity on agriculture, industry, and domestic use.
Hypothesis: Tourism development in South Africa is leading to environmental degradation and cultural commodification in some areas.
This hypothesis could be investigated by analyzing the impacts of tourism development on local ecosystems, including wildlife and biodiversity, and assessing the effectiveness of existing policies and regulations in protecting these areas. Researchers could also investigate the socio-cultural impacts of tourism on local communities, including changes in traditional ways of life and the commodification of cultural practices.
Hypothesis: The use of non-renewable energy sources in South Africa is contributing to climate change and global warming.
This hypothesis could be investigated by analyzing energy production and consumption trends in the country and comparing them to national and international targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Researchers could also examine the environmental impacts of different energy sources, such as coal and natural gas, and assess the feasibility and effectiveness of transitioning to renewable energy sources.
Hypothesis: Land use change in South Africa is leading to deforestation and biodiversity loss.
This hypothesis could be investigated by analyzing the drivers of land use change, including agricultural expansion and urbanization, and assessing their impacts on forest cover and biodiversity. Researchers could also investigate the effectiveness of existing policies and regulations aimed at protecting forests and conserving biodiversity, and assess the potential for sustainable land use practices.
Hypothesis: Coastal erosion in South Africa is increasing due to sea level rise and human activities.
This hypothesis could be investigated by analyzing historical data on coastal erosion rates and assessing the impacts of sea level rise and human activities, such as coastal development and mining, on coastal ecosystems. Researchers could also investigate the effectiveness of existing coastal management strategies, including coastal protection measures and land use planning, in mitigating the impacts of coastal erosion.
These are just a few examples of possible geography hypotheses related to South Africa. Actual research would require detailed planning, data collection, and analysis.
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Revision note.
Geography Lead
Aims & Hypothesis
Aims/hypothesis.
This is linked to the content in the specification and then related to a place-specific context
All fieldwork begins with the aims and hypothesis
An investigation into changes in beach profiles along Mappleton Beach
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River discharge increases with distance from the source of the River Dove
Environmental quality increases with distance from the new housing estate in Swanland, East Yorkshire
Aims and hypothesis may be based on what is already known about the topic. For example, Bradshaw's model in rivers
When answering Hypotheses questions that ask whether you agree or not, always give your opinion at the start of your answer before any supporting evidence. This will usually be Yes, No or Partially True /True to some extent.
Do not just copy out the Hypothesis if you agree with it. It is important to make a decision and state it as well as provide the evidence for your choice. Be clear in your decision –expressions such as ‘might be true’, ‘could be false’, ‘true and false’ are too vague.
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Author: Bridgette
After graduating with a degree in Geography, Bridgette completed a PGCE over 25 years ago. She later gained an MA Learning, Technology and Education from the University of Nottingham focussing on online learning. At a time when the study of geography has never been more important, Bridgette is passionate about creating content which supports students in achieving their potential in geography and builds their confidence.
LAB 5: Hypothesis Testing
Where are we going.
Hypothesis Testing
REALITY
DECISION
Do not reject
Decision rule
Selecting the appropriate test.
GEOGRAPHY GRADE 12 RESEARCH TASK 2018
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8 Advantages of the Hypothesis
Published: October 2019
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This chapter makes the case for the scientific hypothesis from two quite different points of view: statistical and cognitive. The consideration of statistical advantages picks up from the discussion of the Reproducibility Crisis in the previous chapter. First, it explores reasoning that shows that hypothesis-based research will, as a general rule, be much more reliable than, for example, open-ended gene searches. It also revives a procedure, Fisher’s Method for Combining Results that, though rarely used nowadays, underscores the strengths of multiple testing of hypotheses. Second, the chapter goes into many cognitive advantages of hypothesis-based research that exist because the human mind is inherently and continually at work trying to understand the world. The hypothesis is a natural way of channeling this drive into science. It is also a powerful organizational tool that serves as a blueprint for investigations and helps organize scientific thinking and communications.
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NEWS FEATURE
14 August 2024
Geology’s biggest mystery: when did plate tectonics start to reshape Earth?
Michael Marshall 0
Michael Marshall is a science journalist in Devon, UK.
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
Illustration by Karol Banach
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Earth’s outer shell suffered a catastrophic break on 6 February last year, when a major fault came to life in southern Turkey. The Anatolian peninsula suddenly lurched to the southwest by as much as 11 metres relative to the Arabian peninsula. Nearly 60,000 people died in one of the most devastating earthquakes of modern times .
An earthquake such as this occurs because Earth’s crust is divided into shifting tectonic plates . The forces behind plate tectonics play a part in determining nearly everything about Earth, from its climate to the evolution of life.
What Turkey’s earthquake tells us about the science of seismic forecasting
Despite its importance, plate tectonics has remained somewhat of a mystery. Since the early twenty-first century, geologists have been gathering data in search of answers as to when and how plate tectonics began. But these studies have produced a mess of often-contradictory results. “You can have 30 people with 30 different specialisms and we will probably come up with 30 different numbers,” says petrologist Michael Brown at the University of Maryland in College Park.
“It is remarkable, the level of uncertainty over the start time of the process that controls the Earth system today and makes for our habitable planet,” says Peter Cawood at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. The uncertainty is so great that it extends across 85% of the planet’s 4.5-billion-year history, he says.
However, a consensus is slowly starting to take shape. Sifting through years of data, researchers are finding ways to make sense of the various analyses. Although many uncertainties remain, the history of plate tectonics is finally coming into view.
Hidden history
Since the 1960s, geoscientists have recognized that Earth’s outer shell — the lithosphere — is not one single solid piece, but a series of rocky plates that jostle against each other and gradually change position. Over millions of years, oceans widen and narrow, and continents move around the world, sometimes fusing to form vast supercontinents. Older parts of plates sink into Earth’s interior, where they get recycled. The rock mixes with other parts of the planet’s mantle — the semi-molten layer beneath the crust.
Why the Tongan eruption will go down in the history of volcanology
“Earth is the only planet we know that has plate tectonics,” says geologist Nadja Drabon at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. It might not be a coincidence that Earth is also the only planet known to harbour life: the constant shuffling and recycling of rocks and minerals releases nutrients into the oceans and creates habitats for life. “That’s really important for Earth’s habitability.”
When Earth formed 4.5 billion years ago, it was much hotter than today: the newborn Earth probably had a magma ocean rather than a solid surface, perhaps something similar to the planet 55 Cancri e, which has been studied by the James Webb Space Telescope . Eventually, the crust cooled, solidified and then broke up into plates that began jostling against each other and migrating around the surface. The big question is: when did all of that happen?
There’s little hope of finding direct evidence from this period because most of the rocks formed in those early days have long since been subducted into Earth’s interior, where they were melted and crushed. The Hadean eon, from Earth’s formation more than 4.5 billion years ago until 4 billion years ago, is the most obscure of all. “There’s no rock record from the Hadean,” says Brown. All that is left are tiny crystals called zircons, which are remnants of those Hadean rocks that later became incorporated into younger rocks.
The geological record of the subsequent Archean eon, which lasted until 2.5 billion years ago, is better but still fragmentary. “Only about 5% of rocks exposed at the surface today are Archean in age,” says Drabon.
Mount St Helens in Washington State erupted catastrophically in 1980. Along with Mount Hood in the background, it is part of a string of volcanoes that formed over a subducting plate. Credit: Bettmann/Getty
Despite this challenge, geologists have been able to glean that conditions were different in the Archean. “Parts of the rock record are completely different,” says Brown. The chemistry of the surviving rocks indicates that the mantle was hotter in the Archean 1 : “It’s probably at least 100 °C warmer and it may be as much as 250 °C” than it is today. That means the crust was also warmer, and therefore softer and less dense.
Such conditions aren’t compatible with the kind of plate tectonics seen on today’s planet, which require rigid plates that are dense enough to sink into the mantle at a subduction zone. The implication was that the young Earth did not have plate tectonics as we understand them today. Quite what it had instead is unclear. One possibility is a ‘stagnant lid’: a crust divided into plates that didn’t move much. Alternatively, instead of moving sideways as is the case today, the plates might have shifted up and down, buffeted by upwellings of hot rock.
Geologists have long tried to get a handle on when a more recognizable form of plate tectonics started, by looking for signs of subduction. The trouble is that the available data have pointed in many directions. “None of it provides an unequivocal smoking gun,” says Cawood.
Written in stone
In the past ten years, however, a consensus has been emerging. A key transition seemed to happen around three billion years ago: multiple lines of evidence indicate that the tectonic regime changed profoundly at this time. For example, a 2016 study found that the composition of the crust started to alter around three billion years ago 2 . Older rocks were mafic: they contained lots of magnesium and iron and were dense. However, by 2.5 billion years ago, rocks were more felsic, meaning they contained more silica and were less dense. The lower density meant that the plates could carry thick continents without sinking. Crucially, felsic rocks form only in the presence of water and heat. Today these rocks are created in subduction zones, so the emergence of felsic rocks between 3 billion and 2.5 billion years ago implies subduction was under way.
PastCast: Plate tectonics – the unifying theory of Earth sciences
“This is well studied,” says geophysicist Johanna Salminen at the University of Helsinki. Several lines of evidence point to a significant shift around three billion years ago, she says. For instance, metal isotopes in preserved rocks indicate that the modern continental crust began forming at this time 3 . However, other work has pointed to even earlier transitions. In 2017, a study found evidence of felsic rocks as early as 3.5 billion years ago, potentially pushing back the onset of subduction 4 . In line with that, a 2022 palaeomagnetic study found evidence that tectonic plates were moving horizontally at near-modern speeds 3.25 billion years ago 5 .
That same year, Drabon and her colleagues pushed back the time frame even further. They studied zircon crystals from the Barberton Greenstone Belt in South Africa. Zircons that were more than 3.8 billion years old held traces of an extremely long-lived crust that had escaped melting for hundreds of millions of years, indicating that there was little or no subduction happening at that time. However, zircons less than 3.8 billion years old seemed to have been part of a younger crust, one that had been reworked through subduction 6 .
Several studies point to subduction well before 3 billion years ago, possibly even 3.8 billion years ago. But there is substantial debate about how widespread this early subduction was. “I think it’s a question of when you believe you can first see it as a global phenomenon,” says Brown. Much of the early evidence of subduction seems to reflect localized or short-lived processes, he says.
Some episodes of subduction might have been triggered by meteorite impacts, according to simulations of such strikes 7 . And a 2022 study of the Archean continental crust concluded that subduction was localized until at least 2.7 billion years ago 8 .
By contrast, true plate tectonics is global and continuous. Hard evidence of that only emerges around 2.2 billion years ago, Brown says. That’s when the oldest known supercontinent, dubbed Nuna or Columbia, was forming — reflecting a global process 9 .
Yet, even after that, the system kept changing. Rocks such as blueschists can form only when subducted rock is both dense and cold, and therefore sinks deep into the mantle. They appear in the rock record only about 800 million years ago, suggesting to some researchers that modern plate tectonics didn’t get going until then.
Step changes
To make sense of the emerging evidence, Cawood and his colleagues set out a possible scenario in 2022, in which they described seven phases of Earth history. The phases were all of different durations, ranging from more than 100 million to one billion years. Each was characterized by a particular mix of rock types, reflecting changes in the behaviour of the crust and mantle. The team identified everything that happened after 2.5–1.8 billion years ago as operating in “a plate tectonic framework” 10 (see ‘An origin story for plate tectonics’).
“I was really excited when I read that paper,” says Drabon. Although the exact details of the stages remain “a little bit up in the air”, she says, “I think they’re on the right track.”
Drabon’s team added new insights in a study published in May. She and her colleagues found evidence of deformed rocks from between 3.4 billion and 3.3 billion years ago, indicating that mountains were being formed then 11 .
And in a review published in July, Cawood and his colleagues gathered yet more evidence that a “primitive form of subduction”, which was short-lived and localized, operated in the Archean. Between 2.8 billion and 2.6 billion years ago, these isolated subduction zones gradually linked up to form a global network 12 .
What’s new is the agreement that the onset of plate tectonics was a process that played out in multiple stages over a long time. “It’s not a light switch,” says Brown. “It’s not a switch where we go from not-plate-tectonics to plate tectonics.”
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Schematic conceptual model illustrating key aspects of the hypothesis
Tetrahedral Hypothesis of Lowthian Green
13 Different Types of Hypothesis (2024)
COMMENTS
Hypotheses: Types, Levels and Functions
Learn about the different kinds of hypotheses used in geographical research, such as research, null, scientific and statistical hypotheses. Also, understand the levels of abstraction and the functions of hypotheses in the scientific method.
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The scientific method consists of systematic observation, formulation, testing and revision of hypotheses. If a hypothesis withstands the scrutiny of repeated experimentation and review it may be elevated to a theory. Theories may undergo revision as new data and research methods are improved. Figure 1.2.4.1 1.2.4. 1: The Scientific Method.
The Use of the Term 'Hypothesis' in Geography
Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers use the term to pose fairly specific, directional relationships between phenomena, others use it to state more general relationships, and still others equate it ...
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A hypothesis can be defined as a tentative assumption that is made for the purpose of empirical scientific testing. A hypothesis becomes a theory of science when repeated testing produces the same conclusion. In most cases, hypothesis testing involves the following structured sequence of steps. The first step is the formulation of a null ...
PDF 3 Hypotheses and Geomorphological Reasoning
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Contemporary Geographical Thought
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The Use of The Term "Hypothesis" in Geography∗
Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers use the term to pose fairly specific, directional relationships between phenomena, others use it to state more general relationships, and still others equate it with question, explanation, conclusion ...
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Hypothesis (singular), or Hypotheses (plural): A prediction you make about the expected outcomes of relationships between two variables" (Research Design by Cresswell and Cresswell). Another way to put it is "a provisional idea requiring further assessment to test its merit" ( Dictionary of Human Geography ).
PDF 1a
The null hypothesis therefore serves as a means of allowing geographers to draw conclusions when data, by its nature,cannot provide absolute truths. For example, geographical theory suggests that the bedload of a river should decrease in size with distance from the source of the river. Therefore, a sensible positive or alternative hypothesis
The Use of the Term "Hypothesis" in Geography
ABSTRACT Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers ...
Hypothesis: Geography
Predicting with a greater degree of certainty. If the population continues to increase at this pace, it will double in less than 20 years. As a country's economy develops, its population will grow very slowly at first, but will then grow rapidly later and may finally stop growing. When the magma cools, it will form igneous rock within the crust.
Grade 12 Geography Hypothesis Examples based on South African Topics
Learn how to formulate hypotheses for geography research based on South African topics, such as climate change, renewable energy, urbanization, and tourism. See definitions and examples of related terminologies, such as null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, dependent variable, and statistical significance.
Step 1a
Task 3 - Depending on the chosen hypotheses, you are now going to need to explain the Geography theory behind each one. See the link at the top of this page. Task 4 - Draw a sketch map of the River Aussonnelle drainage basin (see this page) and label it.Add a key, scale and title. Task 5 - Draw a map of France and plot on the location of Paris (capital city) and Toulouse and the approximate ...
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Geography 226: Lab 5
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The Use of The Term "Hypothesis" in Geography∗
THE USE OF THE TERM "HYPOTHESIS" IN GEOGRAPHY Footnote ... Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers use the term to pose fairly specific, directional relationships between phenomena, others use ...
GEOGRAPHY GRADE 12 RESEARCH TASK 2018
Choosing a topic for a Geography Research Project (Hypothesis testing): Isolate topics to specific areas in the Geography CAPS content, for example: Climate and Weather: (An analysis of weather data over a longer period) Geomorphology: (A study of processes and factors influencing flow patterns in local stream/rivers) Settlement Geography: (A ...
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The crux of the geography hypothesis is the positive relationship between access to natural resources and economic performance. The availability of certain environmental components is considered a prerequisite for economic development, whereas the lack of them is claimed to hinder or even preclude progress.
8 Advantages of the Hypothesis
Human Geography Cultural Geography. Economic Geography. Political Geography. Interdisciplinary Studies Communication Studies. Museums, Libraries, and Information Sciences. Politics African Politics ... The hypothesis is a natural way of channeling this drive into science. It is also a powerful organizational tool that serves as a blueprint for ...
Geology's biggest mystery: when did plate tectonics start to ...
Researchers have spent decades hunting for clues about the origins of the process that moves the continents around. Its deep history is finally starting to come into focus.
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This study attempts to examine the role of the nature of residence of households as a determinant of their primary cooking fuel choices in India. Using an ordered probit model, we highlight the sig...
IMAGES
COMMENTS
Learn about the different kinds of hypotheses used in geographical research, such as research, null, scientific and statistical hypotheses. Also, understand the levels of abstraction and the functions of hypotheses in the scientific method.
The scientific method consists of systematic observation, formulation, testing and revision of hypotheses. If a hypothesis withstands the scrutiny of repeated experimentation and review it may be elevated to a theory. Theories may undergo revision as new data and research methods are improved. Figure 1.2.4.1 1.2.4. 1: The Scientific Method.
Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers use the term to pose fairly specific, directional relationships between phenomena, others use it to state more general relationships, and still others equate it ...
Learn what a hypothesis is in geography, how to formulate and test it, and what are the differences between rhetorical and statistical hypotheses. See examples of hypotheses from urban research and other fields of geography.
THEORY AND EXPLANATION IN GEOGRAPHY "With this book Henry Yeung puts Geography back into the driver's seat of new theory development. Foregrounding mid-range theories and mechanism-based explanations, he offers a pragmatic approach that has the capacity to shape the wider social sciences for years to come. The timing of this intervention is pitch-perfect, as scholars search for ways to ...
A hypothesis can be defined as a tentative assumption that is made for the purpose of empirical scientific testing. A hypothesis becomes a theory of science when repeated testing produces the same conclusion. In most cases, hypothesis testing involves the following structured sequence of steps. The first step is the formulation of a null ...
facts under a conceptual scheme (hypothesis), retroduction bridges the gulf between nature and mind. Geomorphological indices, such as landforms and sediments, are signs for which causative processes are inferred retroductively. Though superficially similar to lucky , 'guessing', retroductive inference succeeds in generating fruitful hypotheses ...
Abstract. This chapter takes a quick tour of the key conceptual priorities and their styles of theory and/or explanation in the various critical approaches since David Harvey's rendition of the positivist approach for Geography. It presents a highly selective and condensed reading of these approaches in contemporary geographical thought.
Models and TheoriesOne of the main things geographer do is try to identify trends and patterns. ver space and time. Often they will draw from the theories of sociologists, economists, historians, archeologists, political scientists, physicians and trained geographers to develop. odels and theories. These models and theories try to make ...
Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers use the term to pose fairly specific, directional relationships between phenomena, others use it to state more general relationships, and still others equate it with question, explanation, conclusion ...
Hypothesis (singular), or Hypotheses (plural): A prediction you make about the expected outcomes of relationships between two variables" (Research Design by Cresswell and Cresswell). Another way to put it is "a provisional idea requiring further assessment to test its merit" ( Dictionary of Human Geography ).
The null hypothesis therefore serves as a means of allowing geographers to draw conclusions when data, by its nature,cannot provide absolute truths. For example, geographical theory suggests that the bedload of a river should decrease in size with distance from the source of the river. Therefore, a sensible positive or alternative hypothesis
ABSTRACT Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers ...
Predicting with a greater degree of certainty. If the population continues to increase at this pace, it will double in less than 20 years. As a country's economy develops, its population will grow very slowly at first, but will then grow rapidly later and may finally stop growing. When the magma cools, it will form igneous rock within the crust.
Learn how to formulate hypotheses for geography research based on South African topics, such as climate change, renewable energy, urbanization, and tourism. See definitions and examples of related terminologies, such as null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, dependent variable, and statistical significance.
Task 3 - Depending on the chosen hypotheses, you are now going to need to explain the Geography theory behind each one. See the link at the top of this page. Task 4 - Draw a sketch map of the River Aussonnelle drainage basin (see this page) and label it.Add a key, scale and title. Task 5 - Draw a map of France and plot on the location of Paris (capital city) and Toulouse and the approximate ...
Aims/Hypothesis. Fieldwork is based around an enquiry into a 'real life' issue. This is linked to the content in the specification and then related to a place-specific context. All fieldwork begins with the aims and hypothesis. The aim explains what the enquiry is attempting to achieve. An investigation into changes in beach profiles along ...
LAB 5: Hypothesis Testing Where are we going? So far in this course, we have covered: Descriptive statistics, a set of tools for summarizing data, ; Probability theory, which is the foundation for inferential statistics, ; Sampling, which provides the information base for statistical analysis, ; Estimation, a set of tools for developing estimates of population parameters..
THE USE OF THE TERM "HYPOTHESIS" IN GEOGRAPHY Footnote ... Stating a hypothesis is becoming a common procedure in geographic writing, but the meaning and function of the term "hypothesis" have a wide array of interpretations. Some geographers use the term to pose fairly specific, directional relationships between phenomena, others use ...
Choosing a topic for a Geography Research Project (Hypothesis testing): Isolate topics to specific areas in the Geography CAPS content, for example: Climate and Weather: (An analysis of weather data over a longer period) Geomorphology: (A study of processes and factors influencing flow patterns in local stream/rivers) Settlement Geography: (A ...
The crux of the geography hypothesis is the positive relationship between access to natural resources and economic performance. The availability of certain environmental components is considered a prerequisite for economic development, whereas the lack of them is claimed to hinder or even preclude progress.
Human Geography Cultural Geography. Economic Geography. Political Geography. Interdisciplinary Studies Communication Studies. Museums, Libraries, and Information Sciences. Politics African Politics ... The hypothesis is a natural way of channeling this drive into science. It is also a powerful organizational tool that serves as a blueprint for ...
Researchers have spent decades hunting for clues about the origins of the process that moves the continents around. Its deep history is finally starting to come into focus.
A hypothesis is a formal tentative statement of the expected relationship between two or more variables under study.
This study attempts to examine the role of the nature of residence of households as a determinant of their primary cooking fuel choices in India. Using an ordered probit model, we highlight the sig...