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The Critical Role of Market Research in 2021: Experts Weigh In

by Sarah Schmidt , on January 12, 2021

I asked a variety of market research professionals—including executives and founders, research directors, and senior analysts from around the world—to consider what “job” market research will perform and the key benefits it will provide for companies in the coming year.

Some of their responses take a broad outlook, while others focus on the value of market research within specific industries such as energy, pharmaceuticals, or health care. Each viewpoint helps shed light on what the future may hold for the market research industry and the businesses that depend on it.

Understand current market dynamics and the long-term outlook. David Sprinkle, Publisher, Packaged Facts

“As has been the case since the COVID-19 pandemic struck, market research in 2021 will depend not only on expert historical understanding of individual markets, including their distinctive patterns during and after previous economic recessions, but also on steady tracking of market performance throughout the year. The interconnected factors at play—COVID-19 contagion and fatality rates; the corresponding economic slowdown and job loss; the roll-out and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and drugs; federal and state/local fiscal and stimulus responses, including any lock-down policies; and consumer resilience and psychographics in the face of the experience or threat of economic insecurity—mean in aggregate that market sales trajectories may continue to look more like a pinball’s track than a single-direction arrow or clear-cut curve. Quality and objective market research will enable industry players and market analysts to keep their eye on the larger and longer-term picture, as it unfolds.”

Get ever closer to the consumer and identify growth opportunities. Sarah Boumphrey, Global Research Director, Euromonitor International

“Companies will have to get ever closer to the consumer in 2021. Agility, innovation, and bold choices will be needed in order to identify growth opportunities. In this environment, market research and the actionable insights it provides, are even more crucial than ever.”

Make fact-based decisions for a better future. Joe Newsum, Founder, Kentley Insights

“2021 is all about economic volatility with the virus, shutdowns, vaccines, stimulus, policies, consumer and business demand, bankruptcies, globalization, and more. This volatility will hit every industry in its unique way, and leaders will depend on market research to discern reality from fiction to help drive fact-based decisions for a better future.”

Research customer behavior and pivot to new market niches. John LaRosa, President, Marketdata LLC

"Too many times, during recessions, companies cut their marketing and market research budgets. This is adding fuel to the fire. During periods of slow sales, it's more important than ever to research why you are losing customers and which ones. It's also necessary to pivot to find new market niches and potential new products and services. If you don't do any research, you'll never know what those new niches might be."

Gain vital insights into a radically changed world. Jack W. Plunkett, CEO, Plunkett Research, Ltd.

"Executives today are extremely aware that the world changed abruptly with the onset of the Coronavirus. For example, Plunkett Research estimates that literally 10 years’ worth of growth in digital adoption and behavior were compressed into a few months’ time during 2020, as everything from telemedicine—to online grocery ordering—to streaming entertainment soared.

The question on executives’ minds now should be: how much of this behavior will be permanent in the post-COVID era? What will be the attitudes, needs, and plans of businesses and consumers going forward? Will spending resume at former levels, or will today’s high savings rates and financial conservatism endure? If businesses and consumers spend more freely in the near future, what will they be willing to spend on/invest in? How will business markets in 2021 differ geographically and regionally? These are the critical insights that managers need in order to plan their strategies.

The only effective way for enterprises to gain these vital insights is to utilize accurate, up-to-the-minute research. Market researchers have to work harder than ever, and I mean that literally, to conduct interviews, analyze data, draw conclusions, and make forecasts, because things have changed so much and so radically. Our pipeline of research clients has grown significantly in recent months due to these needs. In particular, we’re doing deep research in such areas as online banking and payments, technology adoption, health care markets, and food markets. The next couple of years will be both exciting and challenging for enterprises and market professionals alike."

Scan the horizon for potential threats. Edwin Bailey, Director of Marketing & Research, Content Catalyst

“In 2021 corporate management teams will be on full alert for events that cause business disruption. This means that competitor intelligence and strategy teams will be taken more seriously and better funded to research potential threats. Companies will be inclined to buy or commission research that will help them understand how a market will shape-up in the event of another pandemic, war, or other ‘unforeseen’ global event. Companies, such as airlines, whose business has been badly affected by the coronavirus pandemic, may seek to diversify into ‘pandemic immune’ sectors and will therefore need support to research and understand market segments unfamiliar to them.”

Identify winners and losers in challenging, fluid conditions. Simeon Pinder, Senior Analyst, GMR Data Ltd

"How we research has shifted fundamentally due to the pandemic. Three questions we have to address—How was a sector operating pre-COVID? How about during? And what is the outlook for post-COVID?

If we take retail as an example—depending on your physical / online mix, it has been feast or famine. The banking sector has had to deal with loan breaks, whilst scaling their digital to encourage customers towards online. The pharmaceutical sector has faced unprecedented demands, not just in headline vaccines trials, but in areas such as PPE, medical devices, and Rx & OTC arenas.

Our research shows us that no one sector has benefitted universally, and within horizontals there are winners and losers. What we see is that in challenging, fluid, conditions independent market research is always welcomed. We also see light at the end of the tunnel, and we expect a busy 2021!"

Evaluate markets where cutting-edge research and development is performed rapidly on a massive scale. Deirdre Kelly, PhD, Managing Director, Kelly Scientific

“Market research will be imperative in 2021 given the current flux in all markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Uncertainties associated with drug availability, key ingredients, global logistics, clinical trials, and new drug launches will rock the pharma industry and demand concrete data from market analysts. We at Kelly Scientific have seen certain markets such as immunotherapies withstand the pandemic pressure of 2020, maintaining robust sales but observing stilted growth. Furthermore, COVID-19 is having a major impact on the anti-infectives, vaccine, and viral therapeutic markets and so thorough evaluation of these areas will be required for business strategies and key industry decisions. Comprehensive market analysis will be critical in 2021 in a global environment where cutting-edge research and development is being performed rapidly and on a massive scale. Industry leaders will be required to have all of this knowledge at their fingertips.”

Light a path through uncertainty and secure your position after the storm. Dan Strempel, Senior Analyst, Simba Information

“The scholarly and professional publishing industry was facing disruption before COVID-19 broke out. But academics, even when pushing for revolutionary changes, are cautious and tend to take incremental steps forward after much research and debate. COVID-19 has created urgency and most feel it has accelerated the movement towards open access, open research—and digital solutions as a means of achieving those goals. In this environment, market research will function as a beacon for those industry competitors who are trying to navigate the uncertainty and secure their place in the market that will exist after the storm.”

Navigate dramatic changes in the energy sector. Sara Peerun, Commercial Director, Visiongain

''The energy industry is facing prominent challenges, and the COVID-19 pandemic has altered the standards of the market, witnessing for the first time in history negative oil prices. Market research and analysis were always essential for businesses navigating in the competitive energy market economic scenery, and they are anticipated to be the key in our future attempts to understand the nature and the pace of the oil and gas market recovery in 2021 as well as the impact of the pandemic to the global energy transition efforts.''

Understand how disruption has impacted your portfolio and what remedies might help in times of uncertainty. Dr. Vishal Agrawal, CEO, DelveInsight Business Research

“The global healthcare market has been busy finding a way to overcome the impact of COVID on business without paralyzing itself. Many patients living with comorbid conditions are at the risk of getting infected by coronavirus and pose a real challenge for the prompt delivery of healthcare services, e.g. dialysis. On top of that, patients are avoiding visiting physicians, creating an opportunity for telemedicine and digital platforms to provide services safely at their home.

The coming year will witness a dramatic shift in the healthcare market. Digital healthcare and telemedicine offer tremendous opportunities, and it is expected to create an exponential impact as regulators around the globe are looking for viable alternatives.

The role of competitive monitoring will increase, as companies will require insights post the pandemic to gain footing in the market. Market research will go a long way to benefit companies in understanding how the disruption has impacted their portfolio and what remedies might help in the time of economic uncertainty. To cater to the unforeseen circumstances in the healthcare industry, market research activities that take lessons from historical events and move from a reactive approach towards a proactive approach will help in effective decision-making for strategy building.

Organizations need to involve themselves in understanding consumers' perceptions, analyze granular events to derive accurate forecasts, and work to understand both short-term and long-term implications for business growth. Evidence-based decision making has become the need of the hour, and market research around these points will drive businesses forward.”

Explore promising international growth opportunities while minimizing risk. Marcello Antonioni, Managing Partner, StudiaBo srl, in charge of ExportPlanning

“Strategic planning has always represented a key driver of growth for companies. Now more than ever, in the extraordinary circumstances we are living due to the current pandemic, taking corporate decisions based on reliable data is and will be essential to bring about recovery and success for any business.

The philosophy behind ExportPlanning has always been the importance of strategy and market research in the process of internationalization. We think that in 2021 this data-driven approach will necessarily spread, in the face of an expanded risk scenario as well as increased competition in international markets.

Carefully chosen foreign markets can represent a powerful tool for growth, all the more so in a context of a stagnant domestic market. Nonetheless, accessing a market without evaluating one’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as risks and opportunities of the project, can constitute a considerable risk. That’s when market research comes into play. Trusted data from open and official sources can help identify the most promising markets for one’s products, through macroeconomic and trade data, combined with modern algorithms and professional expertise in terms of data analysis and internationalization best practices. Market research can therefore constitute a crucial support to minimize the risk while exploring new opportunities, even in these challenging times.”

Find product-market fit in an ever-evolving digital world. Faisal Ahmad, CEO, BIS Research

"The need for understanding and forecasting the market (especially new and emerging markets) is now extended to almost all technology and technology products. Gathering credible intelligence (market research) is no more a luxury but a necessity to find product-market fit in the ever-evolving digital world."

Use actionable insights for business planning, forecasts, and presentations. Gerry Christensen, Founder and CEO, Mind Commerce

“While the market research industry itself has transformed significantly over the last decade, the need for insights, data, and actionable information remain a crucial aspect of business strategy and planning for all companies. Despite the recent market disruptions precipitated by COVID-19, the role and importance of market research in 2021 and beyond will continue to grow.

However, it is important to recognize that the manner in which information is delivered, consumed, and put into action is rapidly evolving. Buyer expectations for premium market research drive the need for content-dense delivery with actionable information. The form in which information is consumed is transforming from static reports to more dynamic information, often delivered as part of a subscription service offering.

In addition, market research users increasingly demand flexible platforms that enable customers to use market research content (narrative, data, and images) for many purposes including various internal business documents such as business plans, forecasts, and presentations. Accordingly, successful market research companies will be those that fulfill these evolving customer expectations through scalable and user-friendly market research as-a-service capabilities."

Want more information? Check out our latest article on predicted market research trends for 2022 . You can also download our free white paper to learn how third-party market research can help you gain a competitive edge.

Finding Business Opportunities: The Importance of Market Research

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Market research 2021 and upcoming trends

Published on July 30, 2021 by Raman Kumar

A key function of the market research industry is to help organisations draft dynamic product or service profiles that match the expectations of consumers. As reported by The Business Research Company , the global market research industry grew at a CAGR of 2.6% from 2015, reaching a value of USD75.76bn in 2019. However, it declined to USD73.94bn in 2020 amid the lockdowns and social distancing norms implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The market research space managed to do fairly well despite the pandemic because of its capability to operate completely online and its relevance across sectors. Likewise, other industries that can operate completely online have seen steady growth (some of them seeing significant uptrends) and have increased their research budgets, as business and research go hand in hand. As global business activity returns to normal, the market research industry is anticipated to recover at a CAGR of 4.1% from 2021, reaching USD82.87bn in 2023. New technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning are expected to provide it substantial opportunities, as they will enable faster analytics and report creation. This is particularly relevant considering quality, speed and cost effectiveness will drive market research in the coming years. Let us look at some of the trends in the industry.

Quick surveys – Length of interview (LOI), which refers to the average time required to complete a survey, plays a vital role in the successful completion of surveys and is a critical parameter for all stakeholders involved in research. Shorter length surveys, such as polls, that are setup and deployed within minutes and for which answers are available by day end are expected to gain wider use in market research. The large presence of mobile-ready and pre-targeted audiences will ensure quick turnaround and faster results. Factors such as decreasing attention span in humans (as per a study conducted by the Technical University of Denmark ) also factor in LOI, given that data quality has been known to deteriorate once survey lengths cross 15-20 minutes; quick surveys, therefore, will not only provide faster results but also help curb data quality issues. With a major part of data collection being done through mobile devices, it has become even more important to get all required answers using as few questions as possible. A case in point is when, during 4Q 2020, long surveys were struggling to get attention because the US presidential elections had flooded panels with quick poll surveys that were faster to fill in and as a result getting much better response. Quick polls have already gained in popularity across social media platforms; for example, “influencers” now frequently pose one or two questions at a time and get quick responses from followers.

Do it yourself (DIY) – As the name suggests own, this approach allows users to gain insights, develop new skills and save on costs. The DIY approach is already prevalent in the market research arena, mainly for sampling and over the full cycle of projects to some extent. Many tools are available today that allow users to create surveys, field them and help generate reports/charts/dashboards based on the data collected. While it is important that people who opt for this research approach must have expertise in multiple functions to perform the requisite tasks, they will have advantages such as total control on the project cycle, flexibility with execution and no timeline dependency on other teams. With technological advancement, we will have access to sophisticated integrated tools that perform complex surveys with ease in future. As a result, it would be natural that more researchers adopt this approach, especially when organisations with access to targeted audiences prefer to do in-house research.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) – AI focuses on three cognitive skills – learning, reasoning and self-correction; this enables a machine to simulate human behaviour. ML is a subset of AI, through which machines automatically learn from past data; it is mainly concerned with accuracy and patterns. These attributes are a perfect fit for the analysis of open-ended text data in real time and can help the market research community save time, effort and cost. These will help not just researchers to get quality data but also panel companies to incentivise only those respondents who are qualified as useful completes and to identify records that are to be discarded at an early stage. Another huge benefit could be the implementation of relevant follow-up questions in online surveys based on previous responses from a respondent; this will help bring a qualitative aspect to quantitative research. The application of such technologies will thus allow researchers to explore new horizons in the online research space, resulting in deeper and more meaningful insights.

Social listening – Social listening is the process of identifying useful trends and insights about brands, competition and industry trends from conversations happening on social media. It has become next to impossible for brands to avoid a social media presence, and, from a research point of view, this is a new and evolving area where AI and ML can play a significant role. Researchers can use this as part of secondary research as well. Given the fast pace of the digital world, trends change frequently, and brands need to be adaptive to stay on top of consumer preferences. While traditional market research was a time consuming process, particularly given that the interpretation of results could take weeks or even months, social media has allowed easy access to actionable insights on consumer impressions through people’s discussions about brands and trends. As of June 2021, the global population was at 7.9bn, of which c.4bn people used social media; while this latter number may not represent the number of unique individuals using these platforms, even half of this number would make up one-fourth of the world population. Due to this ever-growing footprint of social media, it is becoming increasingly important to monitor it and use social listening to understand consumer behaviour and macro and micro trends. Researchers can isolate data that matters most while keeping a pulse on other peripheral patterns that emerge over time. Another aspect of social media listening is that it provides unbiased feedback and allows companies to gain insight into opportunities for improvement and innovation so that they can engage with their target audience effectively and nurture their association for longer terms. Because of these factors, social listening is expected to become one of the biggest socio-cultural trends in marketing research.

Online qualitative research – Without the ability to run in-person focus groups, interviews, observations and other qualitative research methods amid the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers were forced to take these activities online; that said, the results have been so amazing that it is definitely going to be one of the most beneficial market research trends to come out of the crisis. Now that researchers have experienced the benefits and ease of virtual focus groups, such methods have become essential in every market research toolkit. The technology available and the ability to be able to reach audiences anywhere, at their convenient times, enable organisations to get access to more people, thus gaining more authentic and diverse opinions and increased engagement. We cannot close this topic without mentioning AI-integrated video support, which has facilitated research through functions such as object and facial recognition including tone, sentiment, emotion, speech, themes and activities. Although the human mind’s complexities, such as intuition, sentiment, subconscious decision-making and synthetic and integrative thinking, could cause minor bumps in complete dependency on machines, breakthrough technologies such as emotion AI (which uses multiple aspects including facial coding, eye tracking, voice AI and brainwave mapping) can provide greater insight and hold considerable potential for the industry.

How Acuity Knowledge Partners can help

Acuity Knowledge Partners (Acuity) has two decades of experience and a well-established reputation in the market research industry. It offers a full range of services in end-to-end research and standalone services. Our team of experts is committed to providing the highest quality work while ensuring adherence to industry compliance guidelines. Benefitting from its strong foundation, Acuity holds dynamic capability to keep pace with market trends and fulfil industry requirements.

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About the Author

Raman Kumar

Raman Kumar working as Delivery Manager with Acuity knowledge Partners has 14 years of total work experience in Market research domain with an expertise in Application support, Field/Sample management, and Full Service Project Management . He has successfully worked in different roles with multiple market research agencies to accomplish a diversified profile.

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Economies in 2021

Euromonitor International predicts that the global economy will rebound from the recession of 2020, with annual real GDP growth of 5.3% in 2021. This report offers key insights from economy, finance and trade, business dynamics, cities, industrial and sustainability perspectives. For example, 59% of part-time employees in 2021 will be female, Chennai will become the world’s 35th megacity and pharmaceuticals and medical goods will be the fastest-growing manufacturing sector.

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Key Findings

In 2021, we expect to see economies rebounding from the deepest peacetime economic recession since the Great Depression. Nevertheless, the fragile economic recovery will likely face many risks, which Euromonitor International covers under our Macro Model scenario analysis.

orsening infection rates in the US and Europe have caused an increase in the probability of the COVID-19 Pessimistic1 scenario, which assumes more severe social distancing restrictions and consumer precautionary behaviour lasting into the first half of 2021.At the end of 2020, w

On the upside, positive news from vaccine trials has led to a reduction in the probabilities assigned to scenarios related to delays in vaccine deployment, namely COVID-19 Pessimistic2 and 3 scenarios.

Joe Biden will become the new US president in January 2021. This development will substantially lower the risks of a global trade war scenario between the US and its European and North American allies, as well as significantly reducing the likelihood of a US-China trade war escalation.

Economic landscape in 2021

Economy, finance and trade in 2021, recovery from the covid-19 pandemic will face multiple risks, business dynamics in 2021, future of work: reskilling on the rise to adapt to new realities, megacities in 2021, the new normal: non-enclosed solo mobility to continue surging in 2021, industrial in 2021, investments in distributed manufacturing forecast to accelerate, sustainability in 2021, from sustainability to purpose: in a climate emergency, new report guarantee.

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Market research in 2021: a look-back at major events & trends.

If the last two years have taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. As we near the end of 2021 and the second year of the pandemic, brands have realized the importance of understanding their customers, their motivations, emotions, decision-making patterns, and future needs.

Demand for market research has only grown in the past year, in part because the market research (MR) industry continually evolves as consumers, their behaviors, and the world shift. This article will explore the current state of MR with a market research industry overview, take a journey through the top market research trends of 2021, and offer predictions about what’s to come in 2022.

Market Research Industry Overview

For many companies, market research has become more than just a “nice to have” business function and entered the realm of “absolutely imperative.” Modern MR is no longer driven by long boring surveys sent to thousands of respondents or months-long focus groups that produce data that quickly goes stale. Customers have needs and desires that change as rapidly and unpredictably as the COVID pandemic itself. Thus, the importance of insightful data and quick pivots has become evident to everyone.

For example, look at Square , a payment processing system for small businesses that recently announced a name change and complete re-branding to accommodate the demand for blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Another company that shifted due to COVID is Alfred. This California coffee chain closed its physical locations and revamped its business model, launching a coffee subscription program to allow people to receive their coffee orders at home.

Market Research Trends 2021

The top MR trends we’ve seen this year include a focus on online qualitative research, even better surveys, online research communities , and artificial intelligence (AI) powered data collection.

Online Qualitative Research

One market research trend that has been an obvious by-product of the COVID-19 pandemic is online qualitative research . With limitations on in-person focus groups and other qualitative research methods, brands are forced to migrate their research online, which, as it turns out, has plenty of unexpected benefits.

By eliminating travel and geographical restrictions, researchers save money and can be more stringent about who is in their study. Participants are also more willing to join a research study when they don’t have to commute. Moreover, virtual interviews and focus groups offer additional capabilities not always possible with in-person research like virtual waiting rooms, screen sharing, whiteboarding, and even a private backroom for observers and stakeholders, making online research a game-changer.

Data capture via video also gives consumers a more accessible and intuitive way of providing honest feedback and reviews of products and services.

Even Better Surveys

In 2021, consumers have continued to demand convenience from the products they purchase, the services they use, and the market research they participate in. Brands that focused on easy to complete surveys experienced the best response rates and collected the most data.

Developing continuous research through mobile surveys is crucial in 2021 and will continue to be as the need for seamless feedback loops increases. Mobile apps are the fastest and most efficient way to connect with most people; however, brands still need to keep things simple, targeted, and optimized. Templated surveys are an excellent option for streamlining the mobile survey process.

Online Research Communities

Online research communities are another trend driven by the need for social distancing, but again have benefits that are hard to ignore. Online communities are among the most popular and cost-effective ways for market researchers to capture real-time qualitative customer data. An online research community uses an internet platform to initiate, organize, and collect in-depth qualitative customer insights from carefully recruited customers.

Online communities have allowed brands to understand their customers’ mindsets, collect feedback, peel back the layers of customer value, and discover micro trends and behavioral shifts that drive strategic business decisions during these uncertain times.

AI-Assisted Data Collection

In 2021, personalization and convenience are the two main driving forces behind consumer behaviors. Using AI-assisted data collection helps consumer data go to the right stakeholders in real-time, saving time and money—AI-based research and sentiment analysis pluck insights from text-based data without human intervention. Some of the other tasks that AI can help market researchers with are data cleaning, finding survey respondents, and analyzing open-ended comments.

Though AI is a buzzword in the MR industry today, many researchers think we’ve only just scratched the surface of its capabilities. Per a Qualtrics survey of insights professionals, researchers believe that nearly 1 in 4 surveys will be spoken to a digital assistant within 5 years and that AI will bring greater data accuracy, increase the size of the market research industry, and create or maintain more jobs than it destroys.

2022: What’s Next

The future of MR in 2022 will involve navigating obstacles, preparing for the worst (and the best), utilizing technology, and appreciating the importance of emotion in buying behaviors.

Looking ahead to 2022, we predict that consumer behavior will continue to be fueled by the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, inflation, and workforce changes. Insightful and timely market research will be critical to understanding how these disruptions impact various industries.
2022 will be an extremely tough year for the MR industry as brands must prepare themselves for a gamut of possibilities; Ultimately, companies must prepare themselves for a future with (and without) COVID.
Demand for market research will continue to rise in 2022 as companies plan for a future post-pandemic. However, staff and participant shortages will be a challenge for the industry, and thus, virtual automated data collection will continue to rise in popularity.
Brand loyalty became somewhat malleable during COVID, so in 2022, we predict that brands will work harder to connect with their customers emotionally and create a strong bond that will lead to greater loyalty and purchasing. Getting to the core of the emotions that drive consumer behavior will be an important goal for researchers.
In addition to AI, augmented reality and virtual reality are tools of the future, specifically for product concept testing, early-stage product feasibility analysis, and understanding consumer behavior in new markets.

Check out the 2022 Market Research Industry predictions infographic and be on the lookout for Fuel Cycle’s upcoming 2022 State of Market Research Report for a deeper dive into the current state of market research, MR predictions, and how brands can get the most from their research in the coming year.

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Updated: Jan. 14, 2021

2020 is ending with a second wave of COVID-19, following the largest exogenous shock in modern history, extreme market volatility that was followed by an unprecedented fiscal and monetary response and a tumultuous U.S. election cycle. This year also comes to a close with the S&P 500 hitting record highs and as credit spreads close in on their pre-pandemic levels despite the unprecedented shocks.

2021 should bring stabilization and a reset for a number of disruptions experienced this year, with front-loaded market momentum and an economic recovery to follow. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts volatile but strong global growth as economies reopen. Heading into the New Year, J.P. Morgan Global Research analysts believe recovery, reflation and rotation against the backdrop of accommodative monetary and fiscal support will set the backdrop for key market and economic calls for 2021. “Global growth will be below trend in early 2021, but the strongest global recovery in a decade will play out by the end of 2021 if the vaccine prospects play out as expected,” said Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research.

GDP growth in 2021

Global growth

Global gdp growth is expected to slow below trend, reaching 5.8%.

J.P. Morgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman forecasts global GDP growth reaching 5.8% and notes that optimism about 2021 global growth is building on the back of news that vaccines are now being rolled out to permanently sever the link between the COVID-19 virus and mobility. Widespread distribution of the vaccines should be forthcoming by Q321, however, Kasman cautions that “the legacy is an incomplete recovery with a 2.0% output gap that is larger than any similar recovery stage at any cycle over the past 50 years.” Policymakers remain committed to limiting spillovers, and there will not be a move away from accommodative monetary policy in 2021. Next year’s expansion of central banks’ balance sheets is expected to be half the size seen in 2020 and as a result, global fiscal policy should turn to a modest 1.5% drag after the 4.7% record fiscal thrust provided in 2020. Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, sees the U.S. economy growing at a 2.3% pace in Q1 but expects growth to lift on the recently approved $900 billion COVID-19 relief package, with additional fiscal stimulus potentially forthcoming in 2021, although the Federal Reserve will be mostly out of the picture. “The Fed will likely be on the sidelines for at least the next two years, while lingering labor market slack should keep inflation stuck in its 2010s range between 1.5% and 2.0%,” said Feroli.

The Fed will likely be on the sidelines for at least the next two years, while lingering labor market slack should keep inflation stuck in its 2010s range between 1.5% and 2.0%.

Michael Feroli

Chief U.S. Economist, J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 companies hold record balance sheet cash and offer high earnings yields vs bond yields

Cash as % of Total Assets

S&P 500 2021 price target: 4,400

The financial market recovery is well advanced compared to the economic recovery, but John Normand, Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, points out that some segments of equities and fixed income, commodities and currencies still remain as much as 10%, or as much as 200 basis points, cheap to pre-pandemic levels. “Stocks will outperform bonds but our total return forecasts are below average for almost every fixed income sector due to low entry yields and spreads,” noted Normand. J.P. Morgan strategists are forecasting above-average returns on equities (10-20% across regions) compared to small losses for fixed income (-2% on Developed Market bonds) or below-average gains (1% to 4% on parts of credit). For the S&P 500, equity risk premium, defined as the spread between the forward earnings yield (reciprocal of P/E) and bond yield, is currently at ~3.3%, while non-U.S. Developing Equity Markets appear even cheaper on this metric at a 5.4% spread. The S&P 500 finished 2020 as the top-performing asset class, returning 16%, but Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, sees the rally continuing, supported by the economic recovery, earnings, inflows and lower volatility. “Our base case is an S&P 500 price target of 4,400 and our EPS estimate is $178 in 2021 and rises to $200 in 2022. The Equity price-to-earnings multiple is expensive in absolute terms but not when low rates and reasonable growth prospects are taken into account. The largest beneficiaries will be stocks at the epicenter of the pandemic, such as Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Energy.”

Our base case is an S&P 500 price target of 4,400 and our EPS estimate is $178 in 2021 and rises to $200 in 2022. The Equity price-to-earnings multiple is expensive in absolute terms but not when low rates and reasonable growth prospects are taken into account. The largest beneficiaries will be stocks at the epicenter of the pandemic, such as Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Energy.

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, J.P. Morgan

The technical backdrop also remains supportive, characterized by an abundance of cash and declining volatility. Marko Kolanovic, Global Head of Macro Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy, expects $1 trillion of equity inflows/demand driven by systematic flows, hedge funding positioning, retail buying and share buybacks. He also sees a structural decline in the Volatility Index (VIX) to the high teens compared to the 2020 average of 28. Globally, he believes the positive drivers for equity markets are in place. Mislav Matejka, Head of Global and European Equity Strategy, now recommends holding positions in Eurozone, Emerging Markets and Japan equities. “A potential rebound in relative earnings of Eurozone could be on the cards, and the region could benefit from the style switch into Value,” said Matejka, “and Japan appears well-positioned as a traditional global cycle play.”

Fixed income, currencies and commodities

Brent crude should finish 2021 at $68 per barrel.

In fixed income markets, Matthew Jozoff, Co-Head of Fixed Income Research, favors spread product heading into 2021 as fundamentals and technicals are supportive. J.P. Morgan’s 2021 Year Ahead U.S. fixed income investor survey shows that ESG, high yield and high grade credit and EM are seen as the top asset classes to increase risk. Jozoff believes fixed income net issuance will remain at record levels and approach $4 trillion led by U.S. Treasuries, but the share of spread product will fall from 50% to just 30% or to $1.2 trillion compared to $1.9 trillion in 2020.

Duration supply excluding Fed purchases is set to more than double in 2021 to exceed $2 trillion. Jay Barry, Head of USD Government Bond Strategy, expects 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 1.25% by Q221 and to end the year at 1.45%. Steve Dulake, Global Head of Credit Research, sees spreads possibly overshooting near term but ending 2021 flatter or slightly tighter across the board although current spreads (125 basis points for U.S. high grade corporates) have already tightened past January 2020 levels. Even without further spread tightening, corporate carry plus roll-down on the spread curve should generate about 50 basis points per quarter. Record cash accumulation by high grade companies in Q220-Q320 could end up being used for M&A, share buybacks and dividends instead of deleveraging. U.S. dollar downside is likely to be limited as the great interest rate convergence of 2020 that accompanied much of this past year’s dollar weakness is now complete. EUR/USD should end-2021 near 1.18, where it has been trading in recent months.

“Fundamental balance of payments positions matter more, and surplus currencies should trend strengthen,” according to Paul Meggyesi, Head of Global FX Strategy. A wildcard risk for 2H21 is of an even stronger rebound in growth and inflation that could lift the U.S. dollar on the fears of an early policy exit. Natasha Kaneva, Commodities Strategy, sees global oil demand only reaching its pre-pandemic run-rate by mid-2022, with OPEC+ likely to stick to the terms of the existing agreement for the entirety of 2021, keeping a 1.3 million barrels per day deficit. OECD inventories won’t normalize until late 2021, boosting Brent prices to $68 per barrel.

Fundamental balance of payments positions matter more, and surplus currencies should trend strengthen.

Paul Meggyesi

Head of Global FX Strategy, J.P. Morgan

Emerging markets

Emerging markets (EM) growth is poised to rebound to 7.3% from 2.1%, led by China’s 9.2% growth providing an anchor, despite the lasting damage from COVID-19. But only a handful of North Asian economies are expected to recover to J.P. Morgan’s pre-pandemic projections while EM high yield economies should end 2021 at an average 5.0% in GDP shortfall relative to pre-pandemic projections. There are even larger shortfalls in parts of Latin America and Southern Asia. However, according to Luis Oganes, Head of Currencies, Emerging Markets and Commodities, “EM valuations remain attractive and EM assets are under-owned compared to global asset classes. 2021 returns for EM fixed income across EM FX local bonds, sovereign and corporate credit, should be in the 4-5% range, while EM equities could gain as much as 20% over developed market equities.”

Turning to alternative asset classes, Bitcoin has gained a following with millennials who see it as an “alternative” currency competing with gold, while corporate support has been growing via Square, MicroStrategy and Paypal. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Senior Global Markets Strategist, believes that the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun compared to holdings of gold and sees Bitcoin’s intrinsic value rising significantly over the coming months as mining activity improves although near-term risks are skewed to the downside.

EM valuations remain attractive and EM assets are under-owned compared to global asset classes. 2021 returns for EM fixed income across EM FX local bonds, sovereign and corporate credit, should be in the 5-6% range, while EM equities could gain as much as 20% over developed market equities.

Luis Oganes

Head of Currencies, Emerging Markets and Commodities, J.P. Morgan

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MRX Predictions for 2021 From Insights Industry Leaders

Insights and market research leaders share their predictions for what to expect in 2021.

by Leonard Murphy

Chief Advisor for Insights and Development at Greenbook

It may seem foolhardy to try to predict what lies ahead after a year of so much unpredictability like 2020, but we researchers are always up for a challenge, right? Foresight is the end goal of insights after all, and certainly at the end of one of the most challenging years ever, with so many focused on one understanding how the myriad changes happening to us as individuals, as an industry, and as a civilization, we have gained some insights that may help get us closer to having that foresight for the year ahead.

With that thesis in mind we reached out to the leaders in the insights and analytics industry to share with us what they have learned and what they think it means, and as usual, they did not disappoint! We’ve organized them by themes to make it easier for you, our esteemed readers, to form your own key takeaways as well.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t add my own take as well, which may also serve as a high-level summary of what others are thinking (great minds do think alike after all!). For me we can classify what lies ahead under two big dynamic forces of change: Disruption and Acceleration:

ACCELERATION

Adoption of tech for cost/speed efficiencies in insights and analytics reached the tipping point: we are now truly a tech-driven industry and will continue to evolve in all ways to fulfill that.
Data Synthesis isn’t a nice to have anymore; it will become one of the core drivers of the industry. The need for holistic understanding is now fundamental.
DIY vs. Service gap grows; as many sectors continue to feel budget impacts while also having even more urgent needs to understand, DIY solutions will go from strength to strength.
Everything is digital; it will take some time for face-to-face anything to recover, so for the time being all things digital to engage, understand, and activate business relationships will be the norm.
Need for consumer closeness; the drivers of decision making, especially priorities, have shifted tremendously and anything that helps understand that more effectively will grow in importance.
Video becomes a primary method; yep, the “Zoomification” of EVERYTHING is only going to increase.
All insights before April are now questionable; are norms and benchmarks still accurate? Maybe/Maybe not, so expect more research to explore and challenge them.
New foundational research needed (market structure, segments, channels, landscape, etc…); the world will be divided into 3 eras: Pre-Covid, Covid, and Post-Covid. All are different, and understanding those differences from a foundational knowledge perspective is going to continue to be important.
New understanding of behavior drivers; how has an increased focus on safety and security changed nonconscious behavior drivers across almost all business phases and sectors? We’ll have to find out.
DEI is key; 2020 made us all aware of the importance of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion as important elements of our social contract so in 2021 look for more active change as we incorporate that into the world.
Budget & resource compression; the economic impact of 2020 is still unfolding and will take a while to bounce back so expect more focus on doing more with less.

That is a lot to take in, but I have absolute confidence that our industry will navigate these changes well and reach even greater levels of business importance and impact in 2021 while doing so!

Now, on to our panel of seers and visionaries to see what they have to say. And from all of us to you, Happy Holidays, and here’s so an amazing 2021 for us all.

2021 Market Research Industry Predictions

Covid will continue to impact the industry.

“I suspect the economic fallout from [COVID] will hit hard in 2021 impacting budgets and creating even more demand for faster and cheaper. As more and more fast and cheap options enter the marketplace the only way companies will be able to distinguish themselves will be through better. Better methods, better analysis, better consulting and better learning and meta analytics.” – Steve Phillips, Founder and CEO of Zappi

“[COVID]-19 will still most likely impact the first half of the year with the 1st quarter looking much like 2020 and the pick up in revenue starting to be seen in the tail end of the 2nd quarter. We expect the 3rd quarter to be the overture to a very strong 4th quarter.” – Kevin Goetz, Founder, and CEO of ScreenEngine and Robert Levin, President and COO of ASI

“This year “change “was not just a buzzword but real…Remote working has finally become a reality that cannot be avoided, and many have moved out of cities into the suburbs. This coupled with failed restaurants and retail will have real effects on various industries including CPG. Online retail, not just Amazon, has leaped ahead 10 years in just 9 months! As traditional business has taken a big hit, and barriers to entry continue to erode, a new wave of online startups is set to take off. They have neither time nor money nor interest in traditional research. The age of market research is over. The age of Data Science and App Insights is here!” – Tom H. C. Anderson, Founder of OdinAnswers

MRX Will Continue To Have a Big Influence on Businesses

“2020 saw many Insights teams thrust to the front to guide leadership through never-been-seen-before times. We need to continue to be bold; express opinions; move beyond single-test-results and build holistic pictures using diverse data sources; leverage AI/ML to do the routine parts of our job to free us up; be creative & disruptive and focus on driving impact through deep, never-seen-before understanding placed at the heart of critical decisions.” – Richard Thorogood, Global Vice President Insights for Colgate Palmolive

“The ability for any tool and researcher to inspire Action & Driving Impact [will] be the single most important differentiator” – Stan Knoops, Global Head of Insights for IFF

“COVID saw the rate of change explode, but I believe 2021 will see this 10x change accelerate further to 100x change. We see this within the MR industry in the 800+ research technologies now available. The next year will require us to create connectors between this tech, the sample, and the methodologies to keep the research process seamless.” – Steve Mast, President & Chief Innovation Officer for Delvinia

“2021 will see an increased focus on combining research technology with expert research consultant support. Leading brands will be those who are empowered to leverage high-quality consumer insights in innovative ways to support business challenges.” – Johanna Azis, Head of Marketing – US for quantilope

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in Data Collection and Hiring/Promoting Practices

“My aspirational prediction is that research leaders will have used 2020 to honestly examine diversity and inclusion within their company and redesigned their systems and policies to practice equity. I see that Black, Indigenous, and other People of Colour are actively sought after, fairly paid, and equitably promoted. And, women, people who are disabled, and BIPOC will be more equitably represented as expert authors and speakers at our in-person (!) conferences.” – Annie Pettit, Ph.D. CAIP FCRIC, Research Methods Consultant

“Leveraging conversational, mobile-first methods makes it easier to bring unheard voices into the boardroom, providing fresh insight into the hearts and minds of audiences who are typically under-represented in the research process.” – Matt Kleinschmit, CEO & Founder of Reach3 Insights

“Racial unrest led diversity, equity, and inclusion to rise in prominence as an organizational priority. For the insights industry, both events point to an imperative to more accurately capture the population. We must revisit and rethink legacy methodologies, from sample representation to research design to analytics to storytelling.” – Sam Herzing, Strategy & Implementation Lead for Gongos, Inc.

“In 2021, balancing “ big data ” with empathy will be more important than ever. We predict a renewed focus on the voice of consumers including methods and approaches that emphasize deep, rich understanding. There will also be dramatically increased efforts to ensure that ALL voices are heard and understood.” – Jeff Seltzer, Chief Executive Officer of Hypothesis

DIY is Here to Stay

“Foresight/trends research will increase, research tech (esp DIY and automated solutions) will accelerate even faster, sample quality and inclusion in research sample will remain hot topics and get more traction/awareness with corporate researchers, collaboration among both suppliers and corporations will increase.” – Michelle Gansle, Sr Director, Insights for Mars Wrigley

“1). More integrated technology, delivered at speed. 2)Extending use cases for data analysis and reporting reaching further into the organization via great data visualization . 3) Increased eyes on solving client business problems, made useful by experienced humans, listening, and delivering outcomes. Basically, I see growth in business-critical information into one platform, freeing clients up to make more informed decisions.” – Peter Harris, CEO of Potentiate

“In 2021 more MR clients will be asking for; integration of multiple text-based data sources e.g. answers to open ends, social listening, FGD transcripts, DIY access to tools for multiple types of end to end MR, transcribed call centre conversations as a data source for text analytics… capability to create their own machine learning models for data annotation in multiple languages” – Michalis Michael, CEO of DigitalMR Ltd.

Teams Will Turn To Agile to Meet Demands

“In 2021 business leaders must be able to respond quickly and appropriately to a fast-changing environment as they continue to question the dogma of yesterday to tactically adapt to today’s decision-making process. No CEO will have the luxury to take months to make a decision; they will need to act in days, if not hours. This ability will be fed by regular access to valuable in-the-moment and longitudinal insights.” – Frederic Charles Petit, CEO of Toluna

“The best opportunities will flow to those businesses that are fast and effective at adapting to new consumer behaviors, tastes, and needs. In order to adapt quickly and effectively, businesses will need to measure, test and learn, forecast, war game, and scenario plan for a fast-changing consumer dynamic.” – Nancy Smith, President and CEO of Analytic Partners

“ Qualitative research timelines will continue to stretch out during the first half of 2021 due to continued wide-spread recruitment delays and then revert back to normal in the back half of the year…some research firms will adapt and develop agile approaches to qualitative research recruitment. Those who adopt a new approach now will win a larger share of the qualitative research wallet next year and beyond.” – Christina Boris, Global Director of Coleman Research

“We’ll see more iterative, perpetual learning in 2021, as brands become accustomed to timely market visibility and movement. Demand for Agile Research has grown in the life science market lately. Advanced companies use it ubiquitously for short-term inquiry and iteratively for longer-term needs. COVID-19 accelerated this evolution with more companies needing real-time data and willing to iterate.” – Dan Fitzgerald CEO Apollo Intelligence, LLC.

“Momentum from 2020, in which insights has been asked to deliver extraordinarily more at record speed, will continue. Several new pressures, along with the exacerbation of preexisting ones, will be present. From heightened internal stakeholder expectations to the exponential rise of data, we will have to prioritize the areas of discovery, tools, and techniques that fuel the most strategic impact and reap the greatest ROI.” – David Robbins, Vice President, Client Consulting for Gongos, Inc.

(More) Changes for Retailers and eCommerce

“The increased time at home will result in consumers continuing to look for more ways to invest in home comfort and pride of ownership. Acquisition of faster internet speeds and new personal technology, buying more square footage, investing in home DIY projects to increase the value of, and repurpose their asset.” – Dan Weber, CEO of tracks

“In 2020, eCommerce grew 41%. That’s 10 years’ growth—in 6 months…[in 20201] Buyers will be in-store & online… 96% look online before they buy. You’ll be missing out on millions if you can’t collect eCommerce data., [and] You’ll need omnichannel insights. Data + surveys = full consumer insights.” – Catherine Gutierrez, VP of Marketing at MFour Mobile Research

“Amazon ad platform will grow significantly more and they will increase their share of ad revenue taking from FB, YT, and IG… More and more brands will be investing heavily in learning and winning on Amazon and other [e-commerce] sites.” – Jeff Bander, Chief Revenue Officer of eye square

AI is Taking Over and It’s Providing Great Insights

“The beginnings and 1st tentative steps of artificial intelligence and machine learning being leveraged for uncovering qualitative insights.” – Alejandro Rivas-Micoud, CEO of Userlytics Corporation

“People who take surveys are a specific subset of the population and do not necessarily reflect the views of the people they are meant to represent. I believe this finding will lead to further development into AI models that can better approximate respondent opinions than actual respondents.” – Mario Carrasco, Co-Founder & Principal of ThinkNow

“More AI-driven solutions trying to better understand the difference between what we say and how we actually feel.” – Peter Chopra, CEO of nuaxia

“Now that NLP, Facial Recognition, and AI are enabling unstructured data to be understood in a similar way to survey data, we can finally move away from abstract constructs in favor of more human forms of communication.” – Jamin Brazil, CEO of HubUX

Analysis Will Rely More on Automation

“Corporations will ramp up new products/services for the post-pandemic world. This will lead to a resurgence in MR spending! Not a V-Shaped Recovery, but a U-Shaped increase and a return to pre-pandemic spending levels. MR Departments that have been recently downsized will be looking for turnkey research support from potential partners that offer maximum value via cost-effective software & automation.” – Kevin Lonnie, CEO of KL Communications

“1) online will remain a major part of buyers’ portfolio of research selections. 2) automatic analysis will become a more natural part of research & design, especially during first iterations. 3) implicit measures are expected to grow in acceptance and use and will benefit by step 1+2” – Thomas Z. Ramsøy, CEO of Neurons Inc

We Will Continue to See Changes in Customer Behavior and MRX Will Need to Measure It

The misplaced emphasis on Acquisition Marketing vs. Loyalty Marketing will start to crumble under the weight of evidence favoring Occasion-driven Marketing. (i.e., The reasons people try are the reasons people buy – over-and-over again.) The assumptions of zero-order (stateless) consumer choice models (and NBD-Dirichlet’s perceived status as a law of marketing) will be proven false. Instead, we will see them for what they are: the emergent properties (in aggregate only) of a complex system. – Jared Schrieber, Board Director & Research Scientist at Numerator

In 2021, researchers will be engaging consumers where they are and what they need to sustain and enjoy their smaller world…From homes or the area around their homes that these consumers frequent, we figure out what they need in that space and use targeting and fencing to get actionable messages to people who are likely to respond. The research conversation should hear these terms getting louder and more frequent as the tool pushes to the forefront of MR. This is our 2021 prediction. – Kim Harrison CEO of Focus Forward

“2020 showed us that the marketing research industry can no longer ignore Gen Z’s increasing influence. From the Black Lives Matter movement to the divisive US presidential elections, these young consumers did not shy away from making their voices heard. And there’s a lot that marketers can gain from engaging with Gen Zs on an ongoing basis—all you have to do is to look at TikTok to see the creativity and resourcefulness of this generation in action. In 2021, the biggest brands in the world will realize that Gen Z is no longer a niche. I predict that forward-looking companies will increase their Gen Z market research budget by 50% or more in the next year.” – Andrew Reid CEO & Founder of Rival Technologies

“By summer 2021, the New Normal will be here and consumers will look nothing like themselves from years prior. Brands will increase their demand for solutions to have as close to a 24/7, high-quality, pulse on their consumers as possible.” – Peter Aschmoneit, CEO & Co-Founder of quantilope

Data Privacy and Security Will Be a Top Consideration

“On the legislative front, 2021 is shaping up to be a most consequential year for the Insights Industry. The legislative agenda includes the potential for deepening data and privacy restrictions, the hope for a Federal Privacy law, the adoption of sweeping labor laws aimed at research participants and the use of incentives, progress on how the government will view dialers, the potential for additional help for businesses financially hurt by the pandemic, and reactions to the decennial census results.” – Melanie Courtright, CEO of Insights Association

“Privacy and security considerations will be at the forefront of decision making. The “chain of custody” when it comes to storing and retaining data for at-home workers will be scrutinized at an increasing degree, putting more emphasis on service partners to provide robust solutions that protect participants, customers and clients like never before.” – Dan Weber, CEO of tracks

Suppliers Will Pay More Attention to Data Quality

“Integrating different data sources into business decision making will become the norm whether that’s in fully enclosed data lakes, data warehouses, or other data solutions. However, corporates and brands will come to fully appreciate that market research data is more complex than other data, and therefore needs specialized solutions to navigate these complexities.” – Horst Feldhaeuser, Group Services Director of Infotools

“In Hollywood in particular, research orgs are consolidating and while it can be a tough process this is going to push the envelope for innovation in creative research as thought leaders from previously siloed teams can champion new ways of capturing insights to the executive team in a more effective manner. Most importantly, their data is consolidating enabling data trending and analysis in new and exciting ways.” – James Norman, CEO and co-founder of Pilotly

“Winners in the year ahead will work model-based vs. model-free: Model-free = endlessly analyzing data, trying to identify a signal based simply on the info itself. Model-based = mapping data back to an established framework to make sense and reveal the signals.” – Hunter Thurman, President of Alpha-Diver

“Respondent data quality continues to decline due to too much demand for online sample. This will cause panels to open their recruitment sourcing to questionable traffic, which will increase the risk of bots and survey farms entering into client-side surveys.” – Patrick Stokes, Founder & CEO of Rep Data

“2021 will see the “return of brand” – shifting dollars from performance to brand budgets… brands want to be part of timely but sensitive conversations and can’t afford a misstep. This is driving the need for precise insights to improve brand metrics. CMOs want this in real-time with specific direction to optimize campaigns.” – Chris Kelly, CEO of Upwave

“Data scarcity grows, endangering high-quality data, and elevating its importance. Lastly, knowing which trends are short-term pandemic effects, longer-term, or permanent changes will challenge brands as they seek to understand their effect on consumers.” – Gary S. Laben, Chief Executive Officer of Dynata

Digital Transformation Will Affect Everything

“As every sector undergoes accelerated digital transformation, we’ll realize that user experience research will soon eclipse the size of the market research industry.” – Rick Kelly, Chief Product Officer of Fuel Cycle

“2021 will be a year of accelerated transformation. New business models, increased technology adoption, and a focus on optimizing operations via new and creative partnerships. Be more creative and unafraid to break the status quo.” – Gary S. Laben, Chief Executive Officer for Dynata

“Your digital presence is now your only business card. In the next year I think that insight companies will invest in more effective digital communications with clear messaging that grabs attention and cuts to the chase.” – Lucy Davison, Founder, and managing director of Keen as Mustard Marketing

Emerging Tech

“Innovation in immersion. AR and VR technologies will gain increasing application and adoption in the insights profession as we work to help business decision-makers build and activate empathy for consumers. The rising prominence of these technologies within manufacturing companies in the face of the pandemic allowed them to zoom in on problems and troubleshoot.” – Sarah Phillips, Vice President, Client Consulting for Gongos, Inc.

“Technology solutions that enable qualitative at scale will pull share from traditional data collection techniques including surveys and focus groups. Why? If you think about it, a survey is just a conversation at scale. But, nobody talks in Likert scales. ” – Jamin Brazil, CEO of HubUX

“COVID accelerated the move to online everything from e-commerce to groceries to research. I expect all those trends to not only continue but to accelerate as the investments companies made in 2020 in technology start to bear fruit. 2021 is positioned to be a tremendous growth year for ResTech companies. Onward!” – Patrick Comer, Founder and CEO of LUCID

Humanization Will Take Center Stage

“More focus on TRUTH, less focus on completes! Disintermediation and Transparency will continue to be driving factors of the industry.” – Keith Rinzler, Founder and CEO of 1Q

“2021 will deliver success for those who embrace…a behavioral lens as an anchor point for interpreting human decision making in a period of upheaval, and a willingness to embrace the uncertainty of the moment in a way that’s instinctively uncomfortable for researchers!” – Alex Hunt, CEO of PRS IN VIVO

“I am hopeful that the renovated sense of community and kindness within insights will stick. Seeing how people have come together in whatever way they can has been inspiring. People have learnt to communicate with honesty and compassion. I think it will continue.” – Lucy Davison, Founder, and managing director of Keen as Mustard Marketing

“We are only consumers for a small percentage of the day, but we are humans 100% of the time and the events of 2020 will leave us forever changed. Helping executives understand consumers as human beings have always been critical to the role our profession plays, but it’s never been more important. In 2021, we will need to increase our commitment to finding meaningful ways to immerse business stakeholders in the needs and aspirations of consumers as real people.” – Camille Nicita, President & CEO of Gongos, Inc.

More Thought Towards UX and Mobile Research

“I believe that the biggest discussion in insights in 2021 will center around the respondent experience, in particular creating meaningful surveys people want to answer – especially the mobile-first world. More and more researchers are realizing that there’s more to it than forcing grids and tiny buttons on mobile screens. What’s needed is a complete re-imagining of all aspects of the experience, from the language and tone of our questions to the channels we use to reach people.” – Jennifer Reid, President & Chief Methodologist of Rival Technologies

“In 2021, the quest for capturing deeper, richer insights (at scale) that can drive better business outcomes will be found through…the mobile phone. it’ll be even more imperative for [researchers] to engage consumers in-the-moment using remote-yet-immersive approaches—something that mobile techniques naturally excel at.” – Matt Kleinschmit, Founder and CEO of Reach3 Insights

Online Research Will Be a Fixture

“We’ve seen that the proliferation of research engagements from afar has uncovered insights just as impactfully as legacy approaches while introducing unique value. In 2021, virtual work will go from fringe to mainstream, and insights professionals will be charged with further evolving tools and techniques to ratchet up its potential.” – Greg Heist, Chief Innovation Officer for Gongos, Inc.

“How we interact with research participants however will finally shift to predominantly online. [COVID] will not lead to the death of the high street, just a reinvention. [COVID]has taught us as much about what we have missed as what we can do without.” – Quentin Ashby, Managing Partner and Head of People Services for InSites Consulting

“Marketing Research will be more Software / IT-based drawing respondents from Online Research Panels / Community Boards” – Sibghatullah Husaini, CEO of The Dynamics – Research Consultants

Leonard Murphy

100 articles

The views, opinions, data, and methodologies expressed above are those of the contributor(s) and do not necessarily reflect or represent the official policies, positions, or beliefs of Greenbook.

Comments are moderated to ensure respect towards the author and to prevent spam or self-promotion. Your comment may be edited, rejected, or approved based on these criteria. By commenting, you accept these terms and take responsibility for your contributions.

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INNOVATION FESTIVAL
Capital One

06-18-2024 MARKETING INNOVATION

AI is revolutionizing the market research industry. Here’s how—and why

Artificial intelligence (AI) offers marketing leaders the ability to understand the “why” behind customer motivations, preferences, and behaviors on a deeper, more granular level.

[Source Photo: Ron Lach /Pexels]

BY Ron Howard 3 minute read

In a groundbreaking shift for the marketing world, artificial intelligence (AI) is granting professionals a power previously out of reach—the ability to deeply understand the elusive “WHY” behind consumer behavior and feedback. This significant advancement in AI technology means marketers can now review and digest vast amounts of qualitative data, processing thousands of responses with precision to not only expose comprehensive insights but also strategically arrange them. This capability presents a transformative opportunity for marketers to gain detailed, actionable understanding of customer motivations, preferences, and behaviors, driving more effective, precisely targeted strategies—within minutes.

It seems so obvious but so many companies are desperate to find out “why” yet avoid asking the question directly when they execute research studies. They often give participants a set of choices that they think may be “why,” but that is such a poor substitute for allowing participants to tell you in their own words, expressing their views along with enthusiasm, or anger, or confusion, or in other ways.

Sadly, many companies have long avoided the use of open-end qualitative questions in their research studies. And the reason goes to the heart of what AI fixes: qualitative open-end responses are very complicated to interpret. It takes a great deal of analyst time and expertise to accurately extract the primary and subtle meanings expressed in open-end responses. Furthermore, what is the message expressed by specific segments such as young people versus older, men versus women, Republicans versus Democrats, or current customers versus lapsed customers. Again, it’s very expensive to analyze multiple open-end questions for a number of audience segments.

Use AI To Better Understand Consumers

AI’s capability extends beyond understanding consumer behavior, offering a lens into the work-life dynamics that influence these behaviors. By dissecting the complex interplay between professional and personal spheres, AI equips marketers with a deeper awareness of how work-life balance—or the lack thereof—affects consumer choices. This holistic understanding empowers marketers to tailor their strategies not only to the immediate needs and wants of their audience but also to the broader context of their lives, enhancing personalization and relevance.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ron Howard is the CEO of Mercury Analytics , a research technology firm that helps companies use better technology to drive better insights, and better decisions. More

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Leading market research companies worldwide by global research revenue 2016-2022

United States dominant in a global market

Leading market research companies worldwide from 2016 to 2022, by global research revenue (in billion u.s. dollars).

Ranking 2022	Revenue 2022	Ranking 2021	Revenue 2021	Ranking 2020	Revenue 2020	Ranking 2019	Revenue 2019	Ranking 2018	Revenue 2018	Ranking 2017	Revenue 2017	Ranking 2016	Revenue 2016
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September 2023

2016 to 2022

Some or all figures are not made available by this company and instead are estimated by the authors of the report. Figures have been rounded.

Statistics on " Market research industry "

Revenue of the market research industry worldwide by country or region 2009-2022
Distribution of global market research revenue by region 2022
Market research revenue worldwide by client sector 2022
Annual growth in market research revenue worldwide by region 2022
Market share of the market research industry worldwide by country 2022
Countries with the largest established research revenue worldwide 2022
Research revenue of IQVIA worldwide 2013-2023
Number of IQVIA employees worldwide 2014-2023
Revenue of Ipsos worldwide 2000-2023
Number of Ipsos employees worldwide 2000-2023
Annual revenue of Gartner 2012-2023 by segment
Number of employees in Gartner worldwide 2010-2023
Market research: research services contributing the most to revenues 2022, by type
Sectors concentrating the most spending on market research 2022, by client's sector
Global spending on market research services in 2022, by survey type
Most used qualitative methods used in the market research industry worldwide 2022
Emerging market research approaches used worldwide 2022
Distribution of global market research spend by project type 2022

Other statistics that may interest you Market research industry

Industry overview

Premium Statistic Revenue of the market research industry worldwide 2008-2023
Premium Statistic Revenue of the market research industry worldwide by country or region 2009-2022
Premium Statistic Distribution of global market research revenue by region 2022
Premium Statistic Market research revenue worldwide by client sector 2022
Premium Statistic Annual growth in market research revenue worldwide by region 2022
Premium Statistic Market share of the market research industry worldwide by country 2022
Premium Statistic Countries with the largest established research revenue worldwide 2022
Premium Statistic Leading market research companies worldwide by global research revenue 2016-2022

Global leaders

Premium Statistic Revenue of Kantar worldwide 2006-2023
Premium Statistic Research revenue of IQVIA worldwide 2013-2023
Premium Statistic Number of IQVIA employees worldwide 2014-2023
Premium Statistic Revenue of Ipsos worldwide 2000-2023
Basic Statistic Number of Ipsos employees worldwide 2000-2023
Premium Statistic Annual revenue of Gartner 2012-2023 by segment
Premium Statistic Number of employees in Gartner worldwide 2010-2023
Premium Statistic Research and development expenditure of Salesforce worldwide from 2015-2024

Research methods

Premium Statistic Market research: research services contributing the most to revenues 2022, by type
Premium Statistic Sectors concentrating the most spending on market research 2022, by client's sector
Premium Statistic Global spending on market research services in 2022, by survey type
Premium Statistic Most used qualitative methods used in the market research industry worldwide 2022
Premium Statistic Emerging market research approaches used worldwide 2022
Premium Statistic Distribution of global market research spend by project type 2022

Further related statistics

Premium Statistic Market research revenue in Canada 2009-2022, with 2023 forecast
Premium Statistic Countries with the largest market research revenue worldwide 2022
Premium Statistic Market research revenue in the UK 2009-2022, with 2023 forecast
Premium Statistic Global revenue of traditional market research 2014-2018
Premium Statistic Market research revenue growth worldwide 2009-2022
Premium Statistic Leading market research companies worldwide 2016
Premium Statistic Market research revenue in Japan 2014-2023
Premium Statistic Market research revenue in China 2012-2023
Premium Statistic Share of employees in the research area in Romania 2021, by sector of activity
Premium Statistic Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in Romania 2012-2025
Premium Statistic Market research and public opinion polling revenue in Sweden 2010-2022
Premium Statistic Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in Italy 2012-2025
Premium Statistic Market research and public opinion polling revenue in Ireland 2010-2022
Premium Statistic Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in the Netherlands 2012-2025
Premium Statistic Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in Belgium 2012-2025
Premium Statistic Colombia: new tools used by market research firms 2021
Premium Statistic Number of employees with a PhD diploma working in the R&D sector in Romania 2017-2022
Premium Statistic Management of data synthesis in the market research industry worldwide 2017

Further Content: You might find this interesting as well

Market research revenue in Canada 2009-2022, with 2023 forecast
Countries with the largest market research revenue worldwide 2022
Market research revenue in the UK 2009-2022, with 2023 forecast
Global revenue of traditional market research 2014-2018
Market research revenue growth worldwide 2009-2022
Leading market research companies worldwide 2016
Market research revenue in Japan 2014-2023
Market research revenue in China 2012-2023
Share of employees in the research area in Romania 2021, by sector of activity
Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in Romania 2012-2025
Market research and public opinion polling revenue in Sweden 2010-2022
Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in Italy 2012-2025
Market research and public opinion polling revenue in Ireland 2010-2022
Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in the Netherlands 2012-2...
Industry revenue of “market research and public opinion polling“ in Belgium 2012-2025
Colombia: new tools used by market research firms 2021
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Inclusive Apprenticeship

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labor market. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, we examine disability prevalence, education levels, employment and related characteristics, poverty, health insurance coverage and the impact of COVID-19 on the employment of women with disabilities.

Employment for PWD: Analysis of Trends during COVID-19 Pandemic – Findings in Brief

(March 2021) Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been unprecedented changes in employment for America’s workforce. Many businesses ceased or scaled back operations and many state governments issued stay-at-home orders. Using key labor force statistics from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) researchers with the Department of Labor’s Office of Disability Employment Policy sought to provide insight into the recent changes. This brief expands data published in September and explores changes in employment for people with and without a disability in various occupations and industries.

Stay-at-Work/Return-to-Work Models and Strategies

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Building accessible and inclusive community college environments for students with disabilities, survey of employer policies on the employment of people with disabilities.

(April 2020) To survey collected information from employers about organizational policies, practices, successes and challenges as well as attitudes and beliefs in the recruitment, retention, and advancement of people with disabilities. ODEP sponsored a similar effort in 2008.

Survey of Employer Policies on the Employment of People with Disabilities: Final Report

Implementation of disability-inclusive workplace policies and practices by federal contractors and non-federal contractors, implementation and effectiveness of disability-inclusive workplace practices and policies, employer practices and attitudes toward the employment of people with disabilities: issue brief.

Anatomy of the Post-Pandemic Monetary Tightening Cycle

Andrew Foerster

Zinnia Martinez

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FRBSF Economic Letter 2024-16 | June 24, 2024

The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy rapidly between 2021 and 2023. In addition, a weekly proxy federal funds rate shows that markets perceived the policy stance as tightening significantly even in weeks without explicit policy changes. The proxy rate uses financial market data to infer the broad stance of monetary policy as determined by funds rate changes, forward guidance about projected future rates, and balance sheet changes. Results show that the weekly proxy rate can capture changes that reflect both policy tools and market reactions to changing economic news.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rapidly tightened the stance of monetary policy between late 2021 and the middle of 2023, raising the target range for the federal funds rate from 0–¼% to 5¼–5½% and continually signaling its intentions for future rate increases along the way. It also changed the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, moving from a rapid expansion of asset purchases that began in 2020 to slowing those purchases in late 2021, to ultimately reducing its holdings in the middle of 2022. The FOMC described these combined actions as a response to a strong economy with low unemployment and with inflation that rose sharply before receding back towards the FOMC’s 2% inflation goal.

These multiple forms of monetary tightening—federal funds rate shifts, forward guidance for future policy, and balance sheet changes—make it challenging to assess the full stance of monetary policy, meaning how restrictive or accommodative it is for economic growth. However, looking at financial indicators can help in measuring this stance because financial markets transmit the effects of monetary policy to the rest of the economy. Financial indicators also respond to expectations for future policy, so they can provide further insights into whether market responses are associated with actual FOMC actions or are a reaction to incoming economic news and anticipated FOMC actions.

In this Economic Letter , we expand the proxy funds rate (Doh and Choi 2016 and Choi, et al. 2022) from a monthly to a weekly frequency to study the anatomy of the recent tightening cycle. The weekly proxy funds rate incorporates how financial variables typically correlate with the monetary policy stance to measure financial market perceptions of the policy stance at any point in time. We examine how weekly movements in the proxy rate relate to both observed monetary policy actions and major economic data news.

We find that the expected stance of policy changes frequently and often substantially from week to week. Between May 2021 and July 2023, most of the cumulative tightening in the proxy rate occurred outside of weeks with explicit policy changes, and during weeks with inflation and employment data releases. The stronger response to data news is consistent with markets anticipating how the FOMC will react to incoming data.

A weekly proxy funds rate

We follow the methodology of Doh and Choi (2016) and Choi et al. (2022) to expand the monthly proxy funds rate to a weekly frequency. The weekly measure uses the same broad financial conditions—several Treasury rates, mortgage rates, municipal bond rates, corporate borrowing rates, and interest rate spreads—but takes weekly rather than monthly averages of higher frequency data series.

The proxy rate aligns closely with levels of the federal funds rate before mid-December 2008. After that, the Fed began actively using new policy tools beyond changing the federal funds rate. When financial markets respond to alternative tools such as forward guidance or balance sheet operations, the proxy funds rate moves separately from the federal funds rate. The proxy rate can thus be interpreted as indicating what federal funds rate would typically be associated with contemporaneous financial market conditions if the funds rate were the only monetary policy tool being used.

Figure 1 shows recent movements in the federal funds rate, the monthly proxy funds rate, and the new weekly proxy funds rate. From late 2021 through early 2024, both proxy funds rates exceeded the actual federal funds rate. Choi et al. (2022) point to balance sheet policy and forward guidance as driving this wedge. In the second half of 2023, the gap between the proxy rate and the funds rate narrowed, consistent with markets beginning to expect funds rate increases to end and eventually reverse.

Figure 1 Effective federal funds rate and proxy funds rates

Comparing the proxy rate at weekly and monthly frequencies shows that these measures generally move together. By definition, the weekly rate moves more often, with smaller or larger changes than the monthly measure. A notable large move was the rapid increase and subsequent decline in early 2023, coinciding with a period of banking stresses and hence likely reflecting temporary financial stability concerns. The weekly rate also allows us to date when, through the lens of financial markets, monetary policy began and ended tightening. We identify the week of May 14, 2021, as the week when the tightening cycle began, as the weekly proxy funds rate began rising from a level of –0.5%. After a rapid tightening, the weekly proxy funds rate topped out at 7.22% in the week of July 7, 2023, and has since declined from that peak.

Tracking changes in the weekly proxy funds rate

An advantage of tracking the monetary policy stance weekly is that we can identify whether changes in the proxy funds rate occurred during weeks with important news about monetary policy or the macroeconomy.

Figure 2 shows the weekly change in the proxy funds rate, with bars colored to indicate major monetary policy or macroeconomic news during that week. For monetary policy, we track FOMC meetings (dark blue bars), releases of FOMC minutes (green bars), and major speeches or Congressional testimony by Chair Jerome Powell (yellow bars), which have been shown to influence financial markets by reflecting expectations about the path of monetary policy (Swanson and Jayawickrema 2023).

Figure 2 Changes in the weekly proxy funds rate: 2021–2023 tightening cycle

For macroeconomic news, we consider weeks with data releases on inflation (light blue bars)—both the consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index—and data about employment (red bars). Some weeks have two or three policy or news events, and we are unable to determine the relative importance of each event, so we simply break the bars into equal portions. Finally, gray bars indicate weeks with none of these events.

The first takeaway from Figure 2 is that the proxy rate varies significantly across the tightening cycle. Over the 112 weeks in the sample, there are 74 weeks with increases and 21 weeks with decreases of more than 0.05 percentage point. FOMC events typically move the target federal funds rate in larger increments of 0.25 percentage point, and there are 18 weeks with increases and 1 week with a decrease of at least this size. Since actual federal funds rate changes occurred only 10 times, the remaining larger changes illustrate that financial markets perceive much more frequent movements in the expected stance of monetary policy.

A second takeaway from Figure 2 is that monetary tightening occurred with both monetary policy news and macroeconomic news. Weeks with FOMC meetings, FOMC minutes releases, or major Chair speeches or testimony often had sizable changes in the proxy rate. These changes can be traced to explicit changes in monetary policy through changes in the interest rate or balance sheet policy during FOMC meetings or information about the future evolution of policy revealed in post-FOMC statements, the Chair’s press conferences, the FOMC minutes, or the Chair’s public remarks. We also see significant movement in the proxy rate during weeks that had news releases about inflation or employment—reflecting the dual mandate goals of the FOMC.

What were the sources of monetary policy tightening?

To better understand the relationship between the policy stance and weekly information developments, Figure 3 shows the cumulative change in the proxy rate by category of week, plus the number of weeks in each category and the average change per week. For example, we identify 17 weeks with an FOMC meeting and compute the cumulative change in the proxy rate in those weeks. We repeat this calculation for weeks with FOMC minutes, the Chair’s public remarks, and inflation or employment releases. Because a given week can fall into more than one category, the sum of the bars exceeds the total change in the proxy rate. We omit the week of March 12–18, 2023, which contained a CPI release but also exhibited extreme financial volatility following banking stresses.

Figure 3 Cumulative changes in proxy rate by week events

The bars in Figure 3 indicate that a substantial amount of tightening occurred outside periods with explicit changes in policy. The proxy rate tightened only 1.28% during weeks of FOMC meetings, far less than both the increase in the federal funds rate and the total increase in the proxy rate of 7.72% over this period. Weeks with minutes releases or public remarks by the Chair showed a significant amount of tightening. The Chair’s remarks resulted in higher average changes than the other two categories. This is consistent with the view that information about future policy conveyed by the minutes or especially by the Chair—aspects of forward guidance—can be priced into financial conditions immediately, leading to a change in the policy stance even without explicit policy action.

Nonetheless, a substantial amount of the tightening in the proxy rate occurred outside of weeks with significant monetary policy news. Most of the cumulative increase in the proxy rate occurred in weeks with important CPI, PCE, and employment releases, in part because these weeks outnumber other categories. However, the average change during these weeks was on par with movements during policy news weeks. This indicates that financial markets internalized how the FOMC would respond to economic news—known as its reaction function—and responded to new information in anticipation of future policy changes. For example, the changes suggest that, when the CPI release came out indicating accelerating inflation, markets responded in a way that was consistent with them expecting future FOMC policy tightening. This type of movement reflects a monetary policy environment where the FOMC has been transparent and is credible about how it will tend to react to incoming information.

The FOMC rapidly tightened monetary policy between 2021 and 2023. As described in this Letter , the proxy funds rate captures the stance of policy during this time through financial markets, which respond to all policy tools including forward guidance and changes in the balance sheet. By expanding the monthly measure to a new weekly proxy funds rate, we find frequent and often sizable movements in the stance of monetary policy. A significant amount of policy tightening occurred during weeks without explicit monetary policy news, as markets responded to macroeconomic news, likely in anticipation of subsequent FOMC policy reactions to the new data.

Choi, Jason, Taeyoung Doh, Andrew Foerster, and Zinnia Martinez. 2022. “ Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate .” FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-30, November 7.

Doh, Taeyoung, and Jason Choi. 2016. “ Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy on and off the Zero Lower Bound .” FRB Kansas City Economic Review 101(3), pp. 5-21.

Swanson, Eric, and Vishuddhi Jayawickrema. 2023. “ Speeches by the Fed Chair Are More Important Than FOMC Announcements: An Improved High-Frequency Measure of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks .” Unpublished manuscript.

Opinions expressed in FRBSF Economic Letter do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This publication is edited by Anita Todd and Karen Barnes. Permission to reprint portions of articles or whole articles must be obtained in writing. Please send editorial comments and requests for reprint permission to [email protected]

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Our B2B Payments research suite provides detailed insightful analysis of this dynamic market; allowing stakeholders from payment service providers, financial institutions, and businesses to understand future growth, key trends and the competitive environment.. The suite includes several different options that can be purchased separately, including access to data that maps the growth and ...
Current and Recently Completed Work
Research Support Services for Employment of Young Adults on the Autism Spectrum (REYAAS) Project (November 2022) REYAAS is seeking to identify promising practices and policies to support employment of young adults (ages 16 through 28) on the autism spectrum. Recent estimates suggest that annually about 100,000 youth on the autism spectrum turn 18-years old in the United States.
Databricks Named a Leader in 2024 Gartner® Magic Quadrant™ for Data
A leader provides a mature offering that meets market demand and has demonstrated the vision necessary to sustain their market position as requirements evolve. ... A key change that occurred between the 2021 and 2024 magic quadrants is the inclusion of Generative AI. ... This graphic was published by Gartner, Inc. as part of a larger research ...
Anatomy of the Post-Pandemic Monetary Tightening Cycle
The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy rapidly between 2021 and 2023. In addition, a weekly proxy federal funds rate shows that markets perceived the policy stance as tightening significantly even in weeks without explicit policy changes. The proxy rate uses financial market data to infer the broad stance of monetary policy as determined by funds rate changes, forward guidance about ...